早盘提示 Morning session notice 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、随着12月议息会议临近，市场关注焦点从降息转向美联储可能重启大规模购债。 | | | | | 前纽约联储专家 Cabana 预计，美联储将宣布每月 450 亿美元购入国库券，以缓解 | | | | | 准备金短缺和回购利率飙升，并于 2026 年启动。 | | | | | 2、大摩重申，AI 融资需求不减，其驱动的投资将推动信贷市场扩张，预计投资级 | | | | | 债券发行总额将激增至 2.25 万亿美元，但信贷息差仅会温和扩大。同时，大摩坚 | | | | | 持认为美联储本轮周期中还有三次降息，欧洲央行将在 2026 年再降息两次。 | | | | | 3、美长债收益率"不跌反涨"现象在华尔街引发激烈辩论：乐观者视其为经济软 | | | | | 着陆的信号，中性观点认为这是 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond futures market is "oscillating" [1] Core View - The short - term trend of bond futures is likely to be oscillating, and trading - style investors are advised to conduct band operations [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Monday, most of the main contracts of bond futures opened lower. After horizontal fluctuations in the morning, they declined, with a rapid pull - up in the afternoon but a quick decline, and a slight rebound near the end of the session. The 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.29%, the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.01%, and the 2 - year TS2603 remained flat [1] Important Information - Open market: On Monday, the central bank conducted 122.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 107.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 14.7 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Monday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.30%, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.45%, up from 1.44% in the previous trading day [1] - Cash bond market: On Monday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly. The yield of 2 - year treasury bonds decreased by 0.02 BP to 1.40%, the 5 - year yield increased by 0.26 BP to 1.63%, the 10 - year yield increased by 0.19 BP to 1.85%, and the 30 - year yield increased by 0.06 BP to 2.26% [1] - Policy: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on December 8 to analyze and study the economic work in 2026. It emphasized implementing more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, and increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment [1][2] - Trade data: In November, China's US - dollar - denominated export amount increased by 5.9% year - on - year, better than the expected 3.0%, and the import increased by 1.9% year - on - year. The trade surplus was 111.68 billion US dollars. From January to November, the cumulative export amount increased by 5.4% year - on - year, and the cumulative import amount decreased by 0.6% year - on - year [2] Market Logic - China's export data in November was better than expected, but the manufacturing and service PMIs were below the boom - bust line. The latest macro - economic data shows that stabilizing growth is still the main line in the fourth quarter. The Politburo meeting on December 8 proposed to continue implementing more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies. The bond futures market continued the characteristics of last week, with the 30 - year variety continuing to decline and other varieties fluctuating horizontally [2] Trading Strategy - Trading - style investors are advised to conduct band operations [2]

联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 9 日星期二 | F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 | | --- | | 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： | Morning session notice 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.54%报 4219.90 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货跌 0.94%报 58.50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 美元/盎司。沪金收跌 0.72%报 953.50 元/克，沪银跌 0.69%报 13606 元/千克。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 12 月 8 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日减少 1.14 吨， 当前持仓量为 1049.11 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 | | | | | 减少 36.67 吨，当前持仓 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's exports in November exceeded expectations, driven by the improvement of the external economic and trade environment, especially the continuous positive interaction between China and the US. There is also optimism for China's export growth rate next year [4][12] - China's exports in the first 11 months achieved a 5.4% growth, benefiting from the diversification of export destinations and the continuous improvement of the competitiveness of export products [2][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 China's Overall Import and Export Situation - In November, China's US - dollar - denominated export amount increased by 5.9% year - on - year, with an expected increase of 3.0% and a previous decrease of 1.1%. The import increased by 1.9% year - on - year, with an expected increase of 2.9% and a previous increase of 1.0%. The trade surplus was $111.68 billion, compared with a previous surplus of $90.07 billion [2][6] - From January to November, China's export amount increased by 5.4% year - on - year, compared with an increase of 5.8% in the whole of last year. The import amount decreased by 0.6% year - on - year, compared with an increase of 1.0% in the whole of last year [6] 3.2 Export Situation by Region - In November, China's exports to ASEAN increased by 8.2% year - on - year, and from January to November, it increased by 13.7% [2][8] - In November, China's exports to the EU increased by 14.8% year - on - year, and from January to November, it increased by 8.1% [2][8] - In November, China's exports to the US decreased by 28.6% year - on - year, and from January to November, it decreased by 18.9% [2][8] - In the first 11 months, China's exports to the Belt and Road Initiative partner countries increased by 10.5% year - on - year. Exports to Africa increased by 26.3% and to Latin America increased by 7.1% [2][8] 3.3 Export Situation by Product Category - In November, China's export of mechanical and electrical products was $205.9 billion, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%. From January to November, it increased by 8.0% year - on - year [3][9] - From January to November, high - tech product exports increased by 6.6% year - on - year. Integrated circuit exports increased by 24.7% year - on - year [3][9] - From January to November, exports of automobiles (including chassis) increased by 16.7% year - on - year, and exports of ships increased by 26.8% year - on - year [3][9] - From January to November, exports of household appliances decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, and exports of mobile phones decreased by 11.2% year - on - year [3][9] - In November, exports of automobiles were 818,000 units, with the export volume increasing by 49% and the export amount increasing by 53%. Exports of ships were 507 units, with the export volume decreasing by about 6% and the export amount increasing by 46% [9] - In November, exports of toys decreased by about 26%, exports of lamps and lighting devices and their parts decreased by 21%, and exports of luggage and similar containers decreased by about 20% [9] 3.4 Import Situation - In November, China imported 46.83 billion integrated circuits, with a year - on - year increase of 2% in quantity and a year - on - year increase of 14% in cost, reaching $38.6 billion [4][11] - In November, China imported 50.89 million tons of crude oil, a year - on - year increase of 5%. The cost was $24.5 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 7% [4][11] - In November, China imported 1.11 billion tons of iron ore and its concentrates, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. The cost was $11.2 billion, a year - on - year increase of 16% [4][11] - In November, China imported 2.526 million tons of copper ore and its concentrates, a year - on - year increase of 12.5%. The cost was about $7.3 billion, a year - on - year increase of 35% [4][11] 3.5 Export Situation of Other Countries - In November, South Korea's exports increased by 8.4% year - on - year, mainly due to the continuous strong demand for semiconductors [4][12] - In November, Vietnam's exports increased by 15.1% year - on - year to $39.1 billion, with a growth rate lower than the expected 18.1% [12] 3.6 PMI Index - In November, the new export order index of the National Bureau of Statistics' PMI was 47.6%, compared with a previous value of 45.9%. The import index was 47.0%, compared with a previous value of 46.8% [4][12]

数据来源:国家统计局,格林大华期货研究院整理 免责声明：本投合中的总总均来源于公开资料、我公司对这些信息的准确找完整整不不怕在何保证、不保证报告信息已投最新变更、也不知定分析师就山外任何建议不会发生任何交更。在任何房况下，报告中的信息或所发出的意见，所不的成功能 货a所买卖的出价或前价。在任何情况下，我公可不就很告中的任何内容对低和投资用放出任何形式的担采，投资客报此发改，投资风险自我承担。我公可可能发出与本报告意见不一致的其他放告。本报告反映分析仍本人时意见与错论，并不代表 我公司的立场。未经我公司同意，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制或对本报告进行有悖原意的删节和修改。 12月8日 煤焦数据快讯-2025年11月煤炭进口数据 2020-2025年中国煤炭月度进口量(万吨) 2020-2025年中国煤炭累计进口量(万吨) 6000 54270 60000 43168 5000 50000 40000 4000 30000 3000 20000 2000 10000 1000 0 11月 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 10月 12月 9月 =2021年 ■2022年 =2020年 ...

Group 1 - The report provides the weekly inventory data of Mongolian coal in the Ganqimao Port supervision area [1][2] - As of December 8th, the Mongolian coal inventory at Ganqimao Port was 314.3 tons, a significant increase of 42.1 tons from the previous week [3] - The report also presents a table showing the inventory and its week - on - week change from August 24, 2025, to December 6, 2025 [8]

Group 1: Overall Information - Report date: December 8, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Li Fanglei, with qualification F03104461 and trading consultation qualification Z0021311 [1] - Contact: 19339940612 [1] Group 2: Sugar (Agricultural, Forestry, and Livestock Sector) Investment Rating - Sugar is rated as "Oscillating and Slightly Weak" [1] Core View - The external raw sugar futures price is mainly consolidating, with short - term oscillations and a long - term bearish outlook. The domestic Zhengzhou sugar market is facing downward pressure due to the increasing new sugar supply and weak overseas market fundamentals [1] Summary by Directory - **Market Review**: On Friday, SR601 closed at 5303 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.47%, and SR605 closed at 5233 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.57% [1] - **Important Information**: ICE raw sugar closed at 14.82 cents/pound on Friday with a daily decline of 0.60%. Sugar prices in various regions in China decreased. As of now, 50 sugar mills in Guangxi have started the 2025/26 season, 17 less than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 38.55 million tons, 14.2 million tons less than last year [1] - **Market Logic**: The external market is worried about Brazil's future supply and India's export expectations. The domestic market has limited fundamental news, and the new sugar listing speed is accelerating [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold or partially close short positions in SR601 contracts, and close profitable long - call options at 5600 [1] Group 3: Red Dates (Agricultural, Forestry, and Livestock Sector) Investment Rating - Red dates are rated as "Oscillating and Slightly Weak" [3] Core View - Although the purchase price of Xinjiang grey dates has increased slightly due to reduced supply, considering the significant overall supply pressure, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [3] Summary by Directory - **Market Review**: On Friday, CJ601 closed at 9175 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.61%, and CJ605 closed at 9320 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.75% [3] - **Important Information**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points last week was 13910 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28.23% and a year - on - year increase of 135.16%. On Friday, 5 trucks of red dates arrived at Guangzhou Ruyifang, 1 more than the previous day [3] - **Market Logic**: The purchase price of Xinjiang grey dates has increased due to reduced supply, and the futures price has risen slightly. However, the overall supply pressure is significant [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold or partially close short positions in CJ601 contracts, and short - sell CJ605 contracts on rallies [3] Group 4: Rubber (Energy and Chemical Sector) Investment Rating - Natural rubber, 20 - numbered rubber, and synthetic rubber are all rated as "Oscillating" [4] Core View - Natural rubber is under pressure from Thailand's supply during the peak season, with weak cost support and a bearish short - term outlook. Synthetic rubber's BR futures price may be in a low - range operation [4] Summary by Directory - **Market Review**: As of December 5, RU2605 closed at 15065 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.17%, NR2601 closed at 12045 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.63%, and BR2601 closed at 10410 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.43% [4] - **Important Information**: Rubber prices in Yunnan and Hainan decreased. As of November 30, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 2.71% month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire and full - steel tire sample enterprises changed [4] - **Market Logic**: Natural rubber has weak cost support and seasonal inventory accumulation. Synthetic rubber's downstream has a strong wait - and - see attitude due to sufficient raw material supply expectations [4] - **Trading Strategy**: The active RU contract is expected to move in the range of 14900 - 15270 yuan/ton, NR in the range of 11800 - 12200 yuan/ton, and BR in the range of 10200 - 10700 yuan/ton [4]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | | | | 钢材: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周五夜盘螺纹热卷收跌。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、全国 90 家独立电弧炉钢厂平均产能利用率 53.82%，环比上升 1.1 个百分点，同 | | | | | 比上升 0.43 个百分点。其中华东、华南区域小幅上升，华北、华中、西南区域微 | | | | | 幅下降，其余区域持平。 | | | | | 2、从东北建材资源南下整体情况来看，12 月东北螺纹南下计划量为 44 万吨，同比 | | | | | 减少 2.1 万吨、环比增加 2.9 万吨，盘线南下计划量 31 万吨，同比减少 0.9 万吨、 | | | | | 环比增加 7.7 万吨。 | | | | | 3、国务院总理李强主持召开国务院常务会议，研究进一步做好节能降碳工作。会 | | | | | 议指出，要切 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The vegetable oil market is showing a differentiated trend. It is recommended to exit the long positions of rapeseed oil and enter a small number of short positions in the 05 contract. For soybean oil, exit the long positions as the pressure at the upper edge of the oscillation range increases. For palm oil, it is advisable to wait and see due to the unclear short - term direction. In the protein market, it is recommended to exit the previously - placed long positions in the far - month 05 contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as the overseas protein raw material market is facing increased supply pressure and the 05 contract after the contract change may be under pressure and show weak oscillations [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil Sector 3.1.1 Market Review - On December 5th, the vegetable oil sector was generally weak due to the expected increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory and rapeseed oil contract change. Rapeseed oil's near - month contracts had a large decline, followed by palm oil, while soybean oil mainly showed an oscillatory trend. The closing prices of the main and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil had different changes in daily - on - daily comparison, with some increasing and some decreasing, and all contracts had an increase in positions [1] 3.1.2 Important Information - On December 4th, US international crude oil futures closed higher. The 2025 Canadian rapeseed production increased by 13.3% to 21.8 million tons. Indian buyers locked in large - volume soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026. The November Malaysian palm oil production, export volume, and inventory had different changes. The US used more soybean oil for biofuel production in September 2025. The total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils increased weekly, monthly, and yearly. The spot prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil decreased, and the basis also decreased [1][2] 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the expected increase in the new - year US soybean planting area pressured US soybean oil, while Indonesia's policy on palm oil indirectly benefited Malaysian palm oil, but the potential increase in November inventory was a concern. Domestically, the sufficient supply of vegetable oil raw materials and good inventory led to a weak soybean oil basis. However, the continuous losses in oil mill import and crushing profits made oil mills want to support prices. The arrival of Australian rapeseed and the increase in Canadian rapeseed production caused a sharp decline in the near - month domestic rapeseed oil contracts [2] 3.1.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Enter short positions in palm oil. For soybean oil, exit long positions and enter short positions as the pressure at the upper edge of the oscillation range appears. Exit the long positions in the far - month rapeseed oil and enter a small number of short positions in the 05 contract. Provide pressure and support levels for each contract. Arbitrage: Cautiously hold the expanding spread of soybean and palm oil 05 contracts [2] 3.2 Protein Sector 3.2.1 Market Review - On December 5th, the main contracts of the protein sector completed the contract change, and the new contracts mainly showed an oscillatory trend. The closing prices of the main and secondary contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased in daily - on - daily comparison, and all contracts had an increase in positions [2] 3.2.2 Important Information - The 2026/2027 US soybean planting area is expected to increase. China resumed the soybean import licenses of three US companies. The Brazilian 2025/26 soybean sowing progress and expected output are known. The Brazilian soybean export volume in November was higher than last year. The US soybean export inspection volume in the week ending November 27th, 2025, was known. The domestic import soybean, soybean meal, rapeseed, and rapeseed meal inventories had different changes. The spot prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased, and the basis also decreased. The soybean crushing profit and arrival cost are known [2][3] 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the increase in the expected US soybean planting area and the increase in Canadian rapeseed production pressured the US soybean market. In the domestic spot market, oil mills and traders were reluctant to lower prices, and the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the off - season of aquaculture pressured rapeseed meal. The overseas protein raw material market has increased supply pressure, and the 05 contract after the contract change may be under pressure [3] 3.2.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Exit the previously - placed long positions in the far - month 05 contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal. Provide pressure and support levels for each contract. Arbitrage: None [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The long - position of precious metals is strong, but there may be a short - term adjustment need after continuous sharp rises, and long - positions should continue to hold [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures fell 0.36% to $4227.7 per ounce; COMEX silver futures rose 2.28% to $58.8 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed up 0.15% at 958.72 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 2.67% to 13788 yuan per kilogram [1] - On December 5, the US dollar index fell slightly, closing at 98.98. COMEX gold fluctuated narrowly, and COMEX silver remained strong, hitting a new high and then falling slightly [2] Important Information - As of December 5, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 0.33 tons from the previous day, with the current holding at 1050.25 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is about 87% [1] - On the evening of December 5, Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng had a video call with US Treasury Secretary Bezant and Trade Representative Greer, discussing in - depth and constructively about future practical cooperation and properly resolving concerns in the economic and trade fields [1] - On December 5, it was announced that the US core PCE price index in September rose 2.8% year - on - year, lower than the expected and previous values (both 2.9%); it rose 0.2% month - on - month, consistent with market expectations and the previous value [1] - Central bank data shows that China's foreign exchange reserves at the end of November were reported at $33463.72 billion. China's gold reserves at the end of November were reported at 74.12 million ounces, an increase of 30,000 ounces from the previous month, marking the 13th consecutive month of gold purchases [1] Market Logic - The US ADP employment in November decreased by 32,000, the lowest level since March 2023. The initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29 were 191,000, the lowest in more than three years [1] - The US recruitment and departure rates decreased simultaneously, and the number of job vacancies decreased, indicating a "cold" state of weakened corporate expansion willingness and significantly slowed market liquidity [1] - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December continued to rise above 80%, driving up precious metal prices. Silver reached a new high due to strong industrial demand, and the silver inventory of the Shanghai Gold Exchange has been falling for the past three months [1] Trading Strategy - The long - position of precious metals is strong, but there may be a short - term adjustment need after continuous sharp rises, and long - positions should continue to hold [2]