研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周一夜盘主力合约期货价格上涨 | 40 | 元至 | 2161 | 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货价格上 | | | | | | | | | | 涨 | 8 | 元至 | 2118 | 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 | 32099 | 手至 | 60.28 | 万手，空头持仓 | 减少 | 28993 | 手至 | 70.9 | 万手。 | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 | 89.1%，环比+0.37%。海外甲醇开工率 | 66.9%，环比 | | | | | | | | | | | | -5.8%。 | 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 | 136.35 | 万吨，减少 | 11.58 | 万 ...

联系方式：17803978037 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 郑棉总成交 | 362854 | 持仓 | 1016214。结算价 | 1 | 月 | 13760，5 | 月 | 13725，9 | 月 | 13825。 | ICE12 | 月合约结算价 | 62.83 | 跌 | 8 | 点，3 | 月 | 64.63 | 跌 | 8 | 点，5 | 月 | 65.78 | 跌 | 14 | 点；成 | | 交约 | 3.2 | 万手。 | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The vegetable oil market shows a differentiated trend. The external market is affected by factors such as US soybean oil export data and Indian procurement, while the domestic market has sufficient raw material supply and good inventory, resulting in a weak basis for soybean oil. Palm oil mainly follows the trend of Malaysian palm oil, and rapeseed oil is expected to continue a wide - range oscillation pattern. For trading, short - term long positions in palm oil should be closed and new short positions can be entered, while short - term long positions in soybean oil at the lower edge of the oscillation range can be held. For rapeseed oil, long positions in the far - month contracts should be closed [1][2]. - The meal market is affected by factors such as the increase in import rapeseed inventory and high rapeseed meal inventory. On December 1, rapeseed meal dropped significantly, dragging down soybean meal. The external market has certain impacts on the domestic market, and the 05 contracts of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are relatively strong. Long positions in the far - month 05 contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal can be held, but large increases are not expected due to sufficient supply [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil 3.1.1 Market Conditions - On December 1, affected by weather disturbances and Southeast Asian floods, Malaysian palm oil continued to strengthen, driving the overall vegetable oil sector to strengthen. The main and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil showed different price and position changes. For example, the main soybean oil contract Y2601 closed at 8288 yuan/ton, up 0.53% day - on - day, with an increase of 14,314 positions [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - Crude oil futures rose more than 1% on December 1 due to factors such as the Ukrainian drone attack, the US closing of Venezuelan airspace, and OPEC's decision to maintain the production level in the first quarter of 2026. - The US government is considering delaying the proposed plan to cut import biofuel subsidies by one to two years. - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from South America from April to July 2026, with 150,000 tons per month. - In November, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 0.19% month - on - month, and its export volume decreased by 19.7% compared to October. - As of the 48th weekend of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.4454 million tons, an increase of 0.44% week - on - week and 13.56% year - on - year [1][2]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - External market: US soybean oil export data boosted the price of US soybean oil, while the weak export data and increased Indian procurement from South America pressured Malaysian palm oil. - Domestic market: Sufficient supply of vegetable oil raw materials and good inventory led to a weak basis for soybean oil. However, due to continuous losses in import crushing profits of domestic oil mills, there is a willingness to support prices. The domestic rapeseed inventory has increased for the first time in 7 weeks, and the market sentiment has become cautious, resulting in a slight decline in the rapeseed oil basis [2]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Close all short - term long positions in palm oil and enter new short positions. Adopt a bullish view on soybean oil, and hold long positions at the lower edge of the oscillation range. Close long positions in the far - month contracts of rapeseed oil. - Arbitrage: Exit the narrowing spread of the 05 soybean - palm oil spread, and enter when it widens again [2]. 3.2 Meal 3.2.1 Market Conditions - On December 1, due to market data correction, the increase in import rapeseed inventory, and high rapeseed meal inventory, rapeseed meal dropped significantly, dragging down soybean meal. The main and secondary contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed different price and position changes. For example, the main soybean meal contract M2601 closed at 3039 yuan/ton, down 0.16% day - on - day, with a decrease of 88,030 positions [2]. 3.2.2 Important Information - In 2026, the US soybean planting area is expected to increase by 4%. - China has resumed the soybean import licenses of three US companies since November 10. - As of November 13, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 71%. - The predicted output of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season by StoneX is 178.9 million tons. - In the first three weeks of November, the soybean export volume of Brazil increased significantly compared to the same period last year. - As of the 48th weekend of 2025, the domestic import soybean inventory was 7955000 tons, and the domestic soybean meal inventory was 1206000 tons [2][3]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - External market: Before the release of export data, US soybeans were under pressure. Although the inventory was high, the market purchase and sale were stable at the beginning of the month. With the decrease in the arrival of imported soybeans and the feed enterprises' replenishment of safety inventory from January to March, the near - month basis of traders was slightly raised. - Domestic market: With the arrival and crushing of Australian rapeseed and the increase in domestic imported granular meal inventory, combined with the off - season of aquaculture, rapeseed meal was under pressure. However, due to technical support at the bottom, it was difficult for it to fall significantly, and it mainly maintained a low - level oscillation [3]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Hold the previously arranged long positions in the far - month 05 contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal. - Arbitrage: No trading strategy provided [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The team led by the head of Asia at J.P. Morgan and the co-head of global emerging markets equity strategy upgraded the rating of Chinese stocks to "overweight" [2][3] Core Viewpoints - The major indices of the two markets oscillated upward on Monday, with the communication equipment and non-ferrous sectors leading the gains. The stock market rally may attract domestic and global capital inflows, and the market is expected to continue its upward trend. It is recommended to allocate long positions in stock index futures mainly based on the CSI 300 Index and CSI 500 Index, and conduct range trading. Also, look for opportunities to buy deep out-of-the-money long-term call options on stock indices [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Monday, the major indices of the two markets oscillated upward, with the communication equipment and non-ferrous sectors leading the gains. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.87 trillion yuan, showing an increase in volume during the rise. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,576 points, up 49 points or 1.10%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2,993 points, up 24 points or 0.81%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 7,101 points, up 70 points or 1.00%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7,386 points, up 52 points or 0.72% [1] - Among industry and thematic ETFs, the top gainers were Gold Stock ETF Funds, Industrial Non-Ferrous ETFs, Communication Equipment ETFs, Internet of Things ETFs, and Tourism ETFs, while the top losers were ChiNext New Energy ETFs, ChiNext Innovative Drug ETFs (Guotai), and Agricultural ETFs (E Fund) [1] - Among the sector indices of the two markets, the top gainers were forestry, rare metals, industrial metals, communication equipment, and AI glasses indices, while the top losers were aquaculture, e-commerce, rail transit equipment, kitchen and bathroom appliances, and wind power equipment indices [1] - The settlement funds of CSI 300 and SSE 50 index stock index futures had net inflows of 1.6 billion yuan and 700 million yuan respectively [1] Important News - In November, the RatingDog China Manufacturing PMI shifted from expansion to contraction. Although new export orders improved, they failed to drive the manufacturing industry to continue expanding. Considering the need to achieve the annual growth target of 5%, there may be a phased boost on the supply and demand sides at the end of the year, and it is expected that the PMI in December will show weak expansion [1] - The first batch of 7 ETFs closely tracking the CSI Science and Technology Innovation and Entrepreneurship Artificial Intelligence Index was launched, and some ETFs were sold out on the first day of issuance. Dozens of ETFs focusing on various industry themes such as the CSI Science and Technology Innovation and Entrepreneurship Robot, CSI Science and Technology Innovation and Entrepreneurship Semiconductor, and SSE Star Market Innovative Drugs are in the application process [1] - In October, the scale of newly registered private fund products was only over 40 billion yuan, which was at a normal level. However, the existing scale increased by 1.14 trillion yuan during the same period, with an increase of more than 17 percentage points, indicating that the growth came from the funds and net values of "old products" [1] - Li Bei, the founder of Banxia Investment, stated that the wealthy are facing an asset shortage with nowhere to place their wealth. The profit-making effect of the stock market will trigger the transfer of household savings, the reconfiguration of domestic institutional asset allocation, and the reconfiguration of global funds and the return of overseas capital to the Chinese market. This round of market may become a bubble and reach a considerable height [1][3] - The silver price reached a new high, and China's silver inventory dropped to a seven-year low of 715.8 tons. This market situation not only reflects the supply-demand imbalance caused by China's record export of 660 tons of silver in October but also confirms that supply-driven price increases are spreading from precious metals to industrial metals, becoming a common trend in commodities [1] - Chinese domestic authority Han Yinhe disclosed that China has achieved a key breakthrough in space AI: the "one-star multi-card" space-based supercomputing architecture of the Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, will be verified in orbit next year. The single-star computing power will achieve a leap through the domestic GPU array, marking China's transformation from a technology follower to a leader in space computing [2] - ByteDance released a technical preview version of Doubao Mobile Assistant, which is embedded in ZTE's mobile phone system. This AI has amazing "intelligent agent" capabilities and can simulate manual cross-App operations, which may trigger a major shock in the industry [2] - Elon Musk said that in the future, the technologies of SpaceX, Tesla, and xAI will gradually integrate to form a self-sufficient ecosystem. This system may break away from the traditional monetary system, and its generated value and output will far exceed those of other industries [2] - With only three months left until the Spring Festival, if the US inventory remains high, the copper price may soar in spring. The current main risks focus on the December FOMC meeting and changes in AI capital expenditure expectations. Technical charts show that the copper price is at a critical breakthrough point, and the underestimated force of hoarding demand is rewriting the supply-demand pattern [2] - Morgan Stanley said that humanoid robots, as the ultimate form of "physical AI," mark a key chapter in human history. By 2050, the global humanoid robot market is expected to reach $5 trillion, and the cumulative deployment volume will reach 1 billion units. During this decades-long growth, semiconductors have become the biggest variable and increment [2] - Goldman Sachs' latest 2026 asset outlook survey shows that technology stocks remain the top choice, but the slowdown of AI is regarded as the biggest risk. The market generally bets that the Fed will cut interest rates twice next year, and the number of people bullish on the US dollar is slightly more than those bearish. In terms of commodities, nearly 70% of investors are bullish on gold, and more than half are bearish on crude oil, showing a sharp contrast [2] - The governor of the Bank of Japan clearly stated that the central bank will "consider raising interest rates" and "make the right decision" at the December meeting. He emphasized that if the economic outlook is realized, interest rates will be raised, and he hopes to raise the interest rate to 0.75% before further elaborating on the future interest rate hike path. The upcoming spring wage negotiation is a key decision point [2] Market Logic - On Monday, the major indices of the two markets oscillated upward, with the communication equipment and non-ferrous sectors leading the gains. The scale of newly registered private fund products in October was normal, but the existing scale increased significantly. J.P. Morgan upgraded the rating of Chinese stocks to "overweight," and Alibaba is making efforts in AI to B and AI to C. Overseas funds have flowed into the Chinese stock market in large amounts, and Morgan Stanley expects the Chinese stock market to continue rising in 2026 [1][2][3] Future Outlook - The major indices of the two markets oscillated upward on Monday. The profit-making effect of the stock market may attract domestic and global capital inflows, and this round of market may become a bubble. There is no so-called AI bubble in the next three years. The bullish sentiment of traders towards the offshore RMB has reached a 14-year high. Overseas funds have flowed into the Chinese stock market in large amounts. J.P. Morgan upgraded the rating of Chinese stocks to "overweight," and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has risen to over 85%. As the focus of AI shifts to applications, the computing power chain has strengthened again. The major indices of the two markets continued to oscillate and recover on Monday, and the recovery direction in the future remains unchanged. It is recommended to allocate long positions in stock index futures mainly based on the CSI 300 Index and CSI 500 Index, and conduct range trading [1][2][3] Trading Strategies - Stock index futures directional trading: As the focus of AI shifts to applications, the computing power chain has strengthened again. The major indices of the two markets continued to oscillate and recover on Monday, and the recovery direction in the future remains unchanged. Allocate long positions in stock index futures mainly based on the CSI 300 Index and CSI 500 Index, and conduct range trading [3] - Stock index option trading: The stock index is in the period of oscillating recovery. Look for opportunities to buy deep out-of-the-money long-term call options on stock indices [3]

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 2 日 星期二 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、白银价格创下新高。中国白银库存降至 715.8 吨的七年新低。这一行情不仅反 | | | | 映 | 10 月份中国创纪录出口 660 吨白银引发的供需失衡，更印证供应驱动型涨价正 | | | | | 从贵金属向工业金属蔓延，成为大宗商品的普遍趋势。 | | | | | 2、半夏投资创始人李蓓表示，富人面临财富无处安放的资产荒。股市赚钱效应将 | | | | | 引发居民储蓄搬家、国内机构资产配置重构，更会触发全球资金重新配置、海外资 | | | | | 本回流中国市场的浪潮。这一轮行情非常可能会泡沫化，达到相当的高度。 | | | | | 3、马斯克表示，未来 SpaceX、特斯拉和 xAI ...

Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 1 日星期一 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 上周五国债期货主力合约开盘集体高开，早盘小幅冲高后回落，午后横向窄幅波动， 截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2603 上涨 0.05%，10 年期 T2603 上涨 0.03%， 5 年期 TF2603 下跌 0.03%，2 年期 TS2603 下跌 0.02%。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：上周五央行开展了 3013 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天有 3750 亿元 逆回购到期，当日合计净回笼 737 亿元。 | | | | | 2 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The vegetable oil market shows a differentiated trend. Rapeseed oil is the strongest, and long positions in the far - month contracts can continue to be held. Soybean oil has effective support at the lower edge of the oscillation range, and short - term long positions can be entered. Palm oil is the weakest, and long - term investors should wait for short - selling opportunities after a rebound, while short - term rebound space is limited [1][3]. - In the protein market, after the main contract shift, the 05 contract of soybean meal and rapeseed meal shows a strong trend. Long positions in the far - month 05 contracts can be held, but large increases are not expected due to sufficient supply [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil Market 3.1.1 Market Review - On November 28, due to floods in Southeast Asia, the Malaysian palm oil price rose, driving the overall strength of the vegetable oil sector. The closing price of the soybean oil main contract Y2601 was 8244 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily increase of 0.24% and a daily decrease of 10124 lots in positions. The closing price of the second - main contract Y2605 was 8040 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily increase of 0.47% and a daily increase of 11685 lots in positions. The closing price of the palm oil main contract P2601 was 8626 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily increase of 1.15% and a daily decrease of 33791 lots in positions. The closing price of the second - main contract P2605 was 8678 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily increase of 1.02% and a daily decrease of 813 lots in positions. The closing price of the rapeseed oil main contract OI2601 was 9757 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily decrease of 0.15% and a daily decrease of 5986 lots in positions. The closing price of the second - main contract OI2605 was 9501 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily decrease of 0.04% and a daily increase of 5853 lots in positions [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - On November 26, international oil prices rebounded from a one - month low. The most actively traded January crude oil futures contract on NYMEX rose 0.70 US dollars or 1.21%, settling at 58.65 US dollars per barrel [1]. - The US government is considering delaying the proposed plan to cut import subsidies for biofuels by one to two years. The original plan was to take effect on January 1, 2026 [1]. - Flood warnings in Southeast Asia have made the market nervous as floods may disrupt palm oil harvesting and transportation [1]. - From November 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 5.49% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area increasing by 3.34% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.41% month - on - month [1]. - From November 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil export volume was 987,978 tons, a 16.4% decrease compared to the same period in October [1]. - In October, India's palm oil imports dropped to the lowest level in five months, and the palm oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year decreased by 16% to 7.56 million tons, the lowest in five years [1]. - As of the 47th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.4348 million tons, a weekly increase of 23,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.96%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.40% [1]. - Research institution CGS International Research said that the vegetable oil market is supported by increased demand, which will lead to a further increase in the price of crude palm oil. It is also expected that the global biodiesel demand will grow strongly in 2026, providing structural support for global vegetable oil prices [3]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - In the external market, the US soybean market is expected to strengthen after adjustment, driving the recovery of US soybean oil. In the Malaysian market, floods and the fulfillment of previous negative factors have led to a significant increase. In the domestic market, although the supply of vegetable oil raw materials is sufficient and the inventory is good, the continuous loss of import and crushing profits of domestic oil mills has led to their willingness to support prices. The domestic rapeseed inventory is zero, and the rapeseed oil inventory is still being depleted [3]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading: For palm oil, short - term long positions can be taken during the rebound, and long - term short - selling opportunities can be waited for after the rebound. For soybean oil, a trading strategy based on the oscillation range is recommended, with long positions entered at the lower edge of the range. For rapeseed oil, a bullish view is taken, and long positions in the far - month contracts can be continued to hold. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for each contract [3]. - For arbitrage trading: No arbitrage strategies are recommended at present. 3.2 Protein Market 3.2.1 Market Review - On November 28, the US market was closed for Thanksgiving. After the main contract shift of domestic soybean meal, the near - month contract rose significantly without pressure, driving the overall protein sector to rise. The closing price of the soybean meal main contract M2601 was 3044 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily decrease of 0.36% and a daily decrease of 48625 lots in positions. The closing price of the second - main contract M2605 was 2845 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily increase of 0.25% and a daily increase of 46714 lots in positions. The closing price of the rapeseed meal main contract RM2601 was 2452 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily decrease of 0.69% and a daily decrease of 18576 lots in positions. The closing price of the second - main contract RM2605 was 2415 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily increase of 0.04% and a daily increase of 18772 lots in positions [3]. 3.2.2 Important Information - In 2026, the US soybean planting area is expected to increase by 4%, from 81.1 million acres in 2025 to 84.5 million acres [3]. - Since November 10, China has resumed the soybean import licenses of three US companies [4]. - As of November 13, the sowing progress of the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean crop was 71%, higher than 61% a week ago but lower than 80% in the same period last year [4]. - The consulting firm StoneX predicts that the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean output may reach 178.9 million tons, higher than the previous forecast of 175 million tons by the US Department of Agriculture [4]. - In the first three weeks of November, Brazil's soybean export pace was significantly higher than that of the same period last year [4]. - There are rumors that there are problems with the import procedures of Australian rapeseed, which may delay the crushing time. In addition, the Russian government has decided to cancel the railway transportation price reduction coefficient for food from 2026 [4]. - As of the 47th week of 2025, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 7.78 million tons, an increase of 158,000 tons compared to the previous week. The total inventory of imported rapeseed was 0 tons, the same as the previous week [4]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - In the external market, the adjusted US soybean has attracted buyers, and the price has rebounded. In the domestic market, the overall supply - demand situation is stable, and feed enterprises maintain rigid demand replenishment. The rapeseed meal price has broken through the 2450 - yuan pressure level. Whether the price can further rise depends on the performance of the US soybean market after the resumption of trading [4]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading: Long positions in the far - month 05 contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal can be continued to hold, and specific support and resistance levels are provided for each contract [4][5]. - For arbitrage trading: No arbitrage strategies are recommended at present.

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 1 日星期一 | | | 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | COMEX 黄金期货收涨 1.59%报 4256.4 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货收涨 6.06%报 57.085 美元/盎司。沪金收涨 0.97%报 959.82 元/克，沪银涨 5.17%报 13191 元/千 克。 【重要资讯】 1、截至 11 月 28 日，全球最大的黄金 ETF SPDR Gold Trust 持仓量为 1045.43 吨， 较前一个交易日维持不变。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 增加 28.21 吨，当前持仓量为 15610.54 吨。。 2、据 CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储 12 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 86.4%， 维持利率不变 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is bullish [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The cotton market has an international supply situation with increased production in Brazil and a good harvest in the US. Domestically, new - cotton processing is faster, but textile companies are cautious about restocking due to weak orders and sufficient raw - material inventory. The recommended trading strategy is to close the long - call options on the 01 contract and hold the long - call options with a strike price of 13,500 yuan/ton on the 05 contract [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - Zhengzhou cotton's total trading volume is 284,007 lots, and the open interest is 954,257 lots. The settlement prices for January, May, and September are 13,635 yuan/ton, 13,595 yuan/ton, and 13,715 yuan/ton respectively. The ICE December contract settlement price is 62.77, up 34 points; the March contract is 64.57, up 34 points; the May contract is 65.75, up 32 points, with a trading volume of about 35,000 lots [2] Important Information - On November 24, spinning enterprises in the Bortala region of northern Xinjiang purchased new machine - picked cotton of grade 31, double 29, with impurity within 2.8%. The basis transaction price of the 2601 contract is 1,000 - 1,100 yuan/ton, and the pick - up price is 14,600 - 14,750 yuan/ton, up 50 - 80 yuan/ton from the previous day [2] - In August 2025, the US cotton product import volume was 1.499 billion square meters, a year - on - year increase of 4.93% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.68% [2] - As of November 16, the US cotton picking progress was 71%, 5 percentage points behind the same period last year and 1 percentage point behind the five - year average [2] - In August 2025, the US textile and clothing import volume was 9.789 billion square meters, a year - on - year increase of 0.74% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.49%; the import value was 9.53 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 6.13% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.57% [2] - On November 24, the trading volume and open interest of cotton yarn futures both increased, and the price rose while the spot price remained stable. Some spinning enterprises reported that the downstream sales had slowed down, the finished - product inventory had increased slightly, and the off - season atmosphere in the market had intensified [2] Market Logic - Internationally, Brazil's cotton production is expected to reach 4.11 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 11.1%), and the export shipment volume remains high; the US production has been adjusted up to 3.07 million tons, and the harvest progress is slightly faster than the annual average. Domestically, the new - cotton processing progress is faster than the same period last year, and the improved quality indicators have significantly increased the sales rate. However, textile enterprises are still cautious about restocking due to weak orders and sufficient raw - material inventory [2] Trading Strategy - Close the long - call options on the 01 contract and hold the long - call options with a strike price of 13,500 yuan/ton on the 05 contract [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black sector (coking coal and coke) is "oscillating bearish" [1] Core View - The overall performance of the coking coal spot market remained weak last week. The profitability of steel mills continued to shrink, production enthusiasm was average, and pig iron output declined steadily. The first round of price cuts in the coke market started last Friday and is expected to be implemented this week. The double - coking futures led the decline in the spot market. Although the downward range slowed down last week, there is obvious support below due to the winter storage expectation in December. In the short term, double - coking may oscillate [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Last week, the closing price of the coking coal main contract was 1,067.0 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 3.26%. The closing price of the coke main contract was 1,574.5 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 2.81% [1] Important Information - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [1] - In October, the bond market issued a total of 635.746 billion yuan of various bonds. Treasury bonds issued 116.955 billion yuan, local government bonds issued 56.047 billion yuan, financial bonds issued 80.108 billion yuan, corporate credit - related bonds issued 118.362 billion yuan, credit asset - backed securities issued 3.434 billion yuan, and inter - bank certificates of deposit issued 256.49 billion yuan [1] - Shanxi officially released a new "Regulations on Ecological and Environmental Protection in Shanxi Province", which for the first time established a special chapter on "green and low - carbon development", clearly requiring the promotion of green and low - carbon transformation of energy, emission reduction and carbon reduction in key areas, and the establishment of a coal consumption total control system [1] Market Logic - Last week, the coking coal spot market was still weak. The profitability of steel mills continued to shrink, production enthusiasm was average, and pig iron output declined steadily. The first round of price cuts in the coke market started last Friday and is expected to be implemented this week. The double - coking futures led the decline in the spot market. The downward range slowed down last week, and there is obvious support below due to the winter storage expectation in December. In the short term, double - coking may oscillate [1] Trading Strategy - The support level of the coking coal futures has moved down. The support for the main contract is 1,030, and the support for the Jm2605 contract is 1,100 [1]