证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 白银现货价大幅超越期货价 2025年10月10日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：于军礼 联系邮箱：yujunli@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F0247894 期货交易咨询号：Z0000112 【全球经济展望】 10月9日，中国对稀土相关技术实施出口管制 数据来源：WIND，格林大华期货 全球经济展望 中国实施人工智能+行动。汇丰新兴市场调查，中国成股票投资首选市场，调查的100家机构合计管理4230亿 美元的新兴市场资产。国际资本积极加仓中国科技板块，认为在AI、机器人、生物科技等前沿领域，中国已具备 全球竞争力。Sam Altman透露，OpenAI未来几个月将有更多激进的基础设施押注。华为公布了昇腾芯片演进和目 标，算力"超节点+集群"已领先英伟达一年以上。OpenAI承诺从AMD购买价值6吉瓦的AMD芯片。三星和海力士加 入星际之门。阿里正积极推进3800亿元的AI基础设施建设，并计划追加更大的投入。 全球经济保持上行方向。 美国对各国征收对等关税后，中国商品竞争力增强，美国8月从中国进口额环比大增近40% 15,000.00 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai Composite Index has exceeded 3900 points, reaching a 10 - year high, and the 3900 - point level forms strong support. International capital is actively increasing positions in China's technology sector. The liquidity impact is usually short - term, and stock index multi - order allocation should focus on the CSI 300 index. Consumption will be the main driving force for economic growth in the fourth quarter [4][13][36] - The anti - involution policy has been intensified, which helps to get out of deflation. The U.S. is seeing a boom in consumption, and its "re - industrialization" is accelerating. The demand for computing power is soaring, and the semiconductor equipment ETF is highly promising [9][42][51] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Index - The Shanghai Composite Index has exceeded 3900 points, hitting a 10 - year high. Due to the liquidity shock of the reduction in the margin collateral conversion ratio of some stocks, the major indices in the two markets tumbled on Friday, but the 3900 - point level of the Shanghai Composite Index forms strong support [4][7][13] Policy News - On October 9, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement on governing price disorderly competition and maintaining a good market price order, including measures such as investigating and evaluating industry average costs, promoting industry self - discipline, carrying out warning admonitions, strengthening supervision and law enforcement, and giving play to the role of credit supervision [9][10][11] - On October 9, China imposed export controls on relevant rare - earth technologies [13] Capital Inflow and Market Activity - After the holiday, the balance of margin trading reached a new high. In August, 2.56 million new A - share accounts were opened in Shanghai Stock Exchange. In the same month, non - banking financial institutions had a net increase of 1.18 trillion yuan in RMB deposits, indicating that funds are accelerating their transfer to the stock market. The year - on - year growth rate of M1 in August soared to 6.0%, indicating accelerated currency activation, which is beneficial for the upward movement of the stock market [15][18][21] Economic Data Indicators - In August, the core CPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year, and the CPI of consumer goods increased by 0.1% month - on - month. The anti - involution policy helps to get out of deflation [24] - In August, the monthly value of manufacturing fixed - asset investment was 2.62 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 0.3%. The monthly value of infrastructure investment was 1.90 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 6.4%. The monthly value of real estate development investment completion decreased by 19.9% year - on - year, showing a continued downward trend [27][30][33] - The monthly value of social consumer goods retail sales in August was 3.96 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.4%. Consumption will be the main driving force for economic growth in the fourth quarter [36] International Trade and Consumption - After the U.S. imposed reciprocal tariffs on various countries, the competitiveness of Chinese goods has increased. In August, the U.S. imports from China increased by nearly 40% month - on - month [39] - In August, the total retail and food sales in the U.S. increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations. The sales of U.S. wholesalers reached a record high of 711.3 billion dollars, with a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. The U.S. capital goods imports in August reached 91.9 billion dollars, still at a high level, with a year - on - year growth rate of 10.5%, indicating that the U.S. manufacturing industry is accelerating its return and the "re - industrialization" is speeding up [42][45][48] Investment Strategy - Stock index outlook: The liquidity shock is usually short - term. The CSI 300 index has reasonable valuation and limited callback space. Stock index allocation should mainly focus on CSI 300 index multi - orders [13][53] - Trading strategy: For stock index futures directional trading, the 3900 - point level of the Shanghai Composite Index forms strong support, and stock index futures multi - order allocation should focus on the CSI 300 index. For stock index option trading, take the opportunity to buy far - month deep - out - of - the - money call options [13][56]

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel sector in the black building materials is "oscillating" [1] Core View - After the holiday, the first trading day saw the screw and coil steel oscillating to build a bottom, with a gap - up opening at night and continued gains. The steel market has both supply and demand decreasing and continuous inventory accumulation. The market expectations are divided, and the price is expected to oscillate and rebound but with insufficient upward momentum [1] Summary by Directory Market Review - After the holiday, the first trading day saw the screw and coil steel oscillating to build a bottom, and they opened higher with a gap at night and continued to close up [1] Important Information - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement on governing price disorderly competition and maintaining a good market price order [1] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 863,310 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,760 tons or 0.4%. The total inventory was 1.60072 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 127,860 tons or 8.7%. The weekly consumption was 751,430 tons, among which the building materials consumption decreased by 32.8% week - on - week and the plate consumption decreased by 7.8% week - on - week [1] - New York Fed President Williams clearly stated that he supports further interest rate cuts in 2025 to cope with the possible sharp slowdown risk in the labor market [1] - The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged in September and gave a moderately optimistic assessment of the euro - zone economy, implying a high threshold for further policy easing [1] Market Logic - On the first day after the holiday, the spot prices of screw and coil steel had both increases and decreases, and the trading volume was average. The supply and demand of steel both decreased, and the inventory continued to accumulate. Currently, the market expectations are divided, with half expecting an increase and half expecting a decrease. Attention should be paid to the demand in October [1] Trading Strategy - It is expected that the screw and coil steel will oscillate and rebound, but the upward momentum is insufficient. Short - term long positions can be held continuously with stop - loss orders set. The expected resistance level for rebar is 3230, and the support level is 3000. The resistance level for hot - rolled coils is 3450, and the support level is 3200 [1]

研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 10 月 10 日星期五 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 20 加 | 【行情复盘】 昨日尿素主力合约 2601 价格下跌 57 元至 1 ...

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - After the post-holiday price increase, the upward momentum is limited. As the supply and demand report of Malaysian palm oil is released, all the positive factors will be realized. Short - term long positions should take profits and exit. For the two - meal market, short - term rebounds can be participated in, with limited rebound height, waiting for subsequent short - selling opportunities [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Agricultural, Forestry and Livestock - Three Oils Market Performance - On October 9, driven by the resurgence of the Indonesian B50 concept, palm oil led the rally in the vegetable oil sector. The closing prices and daily changes of various contracts are as follows: the main soybean oil contract Y2601 closed at 8332 yuan/ton, up 2.36% day - on - day, with a daily decrease of 8109 lots; the second - main soybean oil contract Y2605 closed at 8074 yuan/ton, up 2.25% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 5157 lots; the main palm oil contract P2601 closed at 9570 yuan/ton, up 3.17% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 46907 lots; the second - main palm oil contract P2605 closed at 9360 yuan/ton, up 3.59% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 7060 lots; the main rapeseed oil contract OI2601 closed at 10248 yuan/ton, up 2.03% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 25710 lots; the second - main rapeseed oil contract OI2605 closed at 9729 yuan/ton, up 2.18% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 254 lots [1] Important Information - NYMEX crude oil futures closed lower on Thursday after Israel and Hamas signed a Gaza ceasefire agreement - After Argentina suspended the export tax on grains, about 40 ships of Argentine soybeans were registered for export in November and December, mostly to China. These purchases affected US soybean export sales. Argentina restored the export tax on Thursday - The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) will release its official monthly report on October 10. An industry survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September will decline for the first time since February due to increased exports and decreased production - On October 7, an energy ministry official said that after completing laboratory tests, Indonesia has taken another step towards the B50 biodiesel policy and plans to launch it next year. The implementation of the B50 policy requires 20.1 million kiloliters of palm - based biofuel annually, while the current B40 policy requires 15.6 million kiloliters - Data from the Southern Palm Oil Millers Association (SPPOMA) in Malaysia shows that from October 1 - 5, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 12.55% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield increasing by 11.61% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.18% month - on - month - As of the end of the 39th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.6186 million tons, a weekly decrease of 58,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.19%, and a year - on - year increase of 17.18%. Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 1.4608 million tons, a weekly decrease of 13,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.89%, and a year - on - year increase of 10.87%; the edible palm oil inventory was 507,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 31,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.79%, and a year - on - year increase of 8.16%; the rapeseed oil inventory was 650,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 14,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.15%, and a year - on - year increase of 45.22% [1] Market Logic - Internationally, oil prices fell, and US soybean oil was under pressure. Indonesia accelerated the R & D and promotion of B50, and the market expected a decline in Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September, so Malaysian palm oil showed a strong trend. Domestically, after the pre - holiday stocking ended, market demand weakened. In terms of supply, the recent operating rate of factories was around 65%, with high soybean oil production. Many factories operated normally during the long holiday, and the soybean oil inventory in factories may increase after the holiday. The estimated soybean imports from September to October are about 20 million tons, so the short - term supply of soybean oil exceeds demand. Palm oil mainly follows the international market trend. After the pre - holiday stocking, the rapeseed oil market had a slight decline in the futures market, but due to the expected tight supply gap in the macro - logic, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is still decreasing, and the strong fundamentals support the firm price of rapeseed oil [2] Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Short - term long positions should take profits and exit, and the long - term upward space is limited. The resistance level of the Y2601 contract is 9000, and the support level is 8000; the resistance level of the Y2605 contract is 8400, and the support level is 7740; the resistance level of the P2601 contract is 10000, and the support level is 8720; the resistance level of the P2605 contract is 10000, and the support level is 8610; the resistance level of the OI2601 contract is 12000, and the support level is 9680; the resistance level of the OI2605 contract is 12000, and the support level is 9270. Arbitrage: None [2] Two Meals Market Performance - On October 9, driven by the rebound of US soybean products during the National Day holiday, the rebound of domestic double - meal futures was blocked. The main soybean meal contract M2601 closed at a certain price (not fully provided), up 0.38% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 4912 lots; the second - main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 2755 yuan/ton, up 0.62% day - on - day, with a daily decrease of 5870 lots; the main rapeseed meal contract RM2601 closed at 2435 yuan/ton, up 0.58% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 3338 lots; the second - main rapeseed meal contract RM2605 closed at 2334 yuan/ton, up 0.73% day - on - day, with a daily decrease of 1705 lots [2] Important Information - As of October 2, the sowing progress of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean reached 9% of the total sown area, higher than 3.2% a week ago and 4% in the same period last year - Analysts expect that the net export sales volume of US 2025/26 soybeans in the week ending October 2, 2025, will be between 600,000 and 1.6 million tons. However, due to the US government shutdown since October 1, the US Department of Agriculture has postponed the release of the weekly export sales report indefinitely - The Trump administration is expected to announce a plan this week to rescue US farmers affected by the trade war and price drops, with preliminary spending possibly reaching up to $15 billion - As of the end of October, Brazil's soybean export volume is expected to reach 102.2 million tons, exceeding the total annual volume of 2024 and 2023 - As of the end of the 39th week of 2025, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 7.911 million tons, an increase of 295,000 tons from last week's 7.616 million tons, compared with 6.574 million tons in the same period last year, with a five - week average of 7.721 million tons. The total inventory of imported rapeseed was 42,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons from last week's 66,000 tons, compared with 456,000 tons in the same period last year, with a five - week average of 103,000 tons. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 1.274 million tons, an increase of 28,000 tons from last week's 1.246 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.20%; the contract volume was 4.021 million tons, a decrease of 1.489 million tons from last week's 5.51 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.02%. The inventory of imported rapeseed meal was 17,000 tons, the same as last week, a month - on - month flat; the contract volume was 28,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from last week's 25,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.00% - Dongguan COFCO started pre - selling Australian rapeseed meal for the first quarter of next year. Although the news that some companies obtained the gene certificate for Australian rapeseed is not true, it is expected that Australian rapeseed meal will enter the Chinese market soon, which is bearish for the rapeseed meal futures market [2][3] Market Logic - Internationally, due to the US government shutdown, USDA data release is suspended indefinitely. The US government plans to subsidize soybean farmers with $15 billion, putting pressure on the overall trend of US soybeans. The US president said that he will discuss soybean issues with China soon. In the spot market, the fixed - price of oil mills increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and the near - month basis remained stable. After the holiday, oil mills resumed production one after another. Feed and breeding enterprises stocked up a lot before to prevent trade tariff risks, with high inventory; at the same time, the inventory reduction of oil mills was slow, and traders mainly executed contracts. For rapeseed meal, after the holiday opening, the market sentiment was unstable, and end - users mainly waited and adjusted, with limited actual transactions. As the peak season of aquaculture is approaching the end, the demand for rapeseed meal is also limited, resulting in a situation of tight supply and demand [3] Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Participate in short - term rebounds, noting that the rebound height is limited, and the medium - to - long - term trend is bearish. The resistance level of the M2601 contract is 3250, and the support level is 2894; the resistance level of the M2605 contract is 2900, and the support level is 2680; the resistance level of the RM2601 contract is 2858, and the support level is 2430; the resistance level of the RM2605 contract is 2750, and the support level is 2270. Arbitrage: None [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View - After the holiday, the supply of bottle chips increased, downstream factories mainly replenished stocks rigidly, and the market was cautious about the later - stage demand. The export volume of bottle chips decreased in August. With the decline of crude oil prices at night, the price of bottle chips fluctuated weakly following the raw material end, and the reference range of the main contract was 5,650 - 5,850 yuan/ton. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see or sell short on rallies [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [行情复盘] - The price of the PR2512 contract of bottle chips rose by 2 yuan to 5,728 yuan/ton yesterday. The price of East China water - grade bottle chips fell by 10 yuan to 5,740 yuan/ton, and the price of South China bottle chips fell by 10 yuan to 5,820 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions increased by 3,563 lots to 50,500 lots, and short positions increased by 5,075 lots to 49,300 lots [1]. [重要资讯] - **Supply, cost, and profit**: The domestic polyester bottle chip output was 331,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,300 tons. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of domestic polyester bottle chips was 72.5%, a week - on - week increase of 4.4%. The production cost of polyester bottle chips was 5,351 yuan, an increase of 14.2 yuan/ton. The weekly production gross profit of polyester bottle chips was - 185 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4 yuan/ton [1]. - **Export volume**: In August 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 520,700 tons, a decrease of 58,800 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 4.3414 million tons [1]. - **Crude oil prices**: After the cease - fire agreement between Palestine and Israel, the international oil prices fell. The NYMEX crude oil futures contract 11 dropped by 1.04 dollars/barrel to 61.51 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 1.66%. The ICE Brent crude oil futures contract 12 dropped by 1.03 dollars/barrel to 65.22 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 1.55%. The INE crude oil futures contract 2511 dropped by 11.8 to 468.7 yuan/barrel, and dropped by 4.5 to 464.2 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Economic outlook**: The OECD released a mid - term economic outlook report on the 23rd, predicting that the global economic growth rate in 2025 would be 3.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the forecast in June this year; the global economic growth rate in 2026 would slow down to 2.9%, the same as the forecast in June [1]. [市场逻辑] - After the holiday, the supply of bottle chips increased, downstream factories mainly replenished stocks rigidly, and the market was cautious about the later - stage demand. The export volume of bottle chips decreased in August. With the decline of crude oil prices at night, the price of bottle chips fluctuated weakly following the raw material end, and the reference range of the main contract was 5,650 - 5,850 yuan/ton [1]. [交易策略] - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see or sell short on rallies [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the log sector in the agriculture, forestry, and livestock industry is "Bullish" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic log spot market shows a regional upward trend, with the average price in Shandong and Jiangsu regions increasing by 10 yuan/cubic meter compared to before the holiday. The log arrival volume last week is expected to increase by 550,500 cubic meters month - on - month, with a significant trend of concentrated arrivals. Although it is during the holiday, most processing plants maintain normal production, but there is regional differentiation in demand. The overall inventory of coniferous logs decreased by 60,000 cubic meters in the week of September 26th, and the market still maintains an inverted price pattern between the domestic and foreign markets. The log 11 - contract is expected to fluctuate [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The log futures price corrected, and the closing price of the main 2511 contract was 828.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 1.41% [1] Important Information - The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day and down 10 yuan/cubic meter from the previous week; the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day and down 10 yuan/cubic meter from the previous week. As of August 15th, the weekly arrival volume of domestic coniferous logs was 339,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 166,500 cubic meters from the previous week. The average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 63,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 900 cubic meters from the previous week [1] Market Logic - The domestic log spot market shows a regional upward trend. The supply side indicates that the log arrival volume last week is expected to increase by 550,500 cubic meters month - on - month. In terms of demand, although it is during the holiday, most processing plants maintain normal production, but there is regional differentiation. The inventory data shows that the overall inventory of coniferous logs decreased by 60,000 cubic meters in the week of September 26th, and the market still maintains an inverted price pattern between the domestic and foreign markets [1] Trading Strategy - The log 11 - contract is expected to fluctuate [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond sector is "oscillating" for TL, T, TF, and TS [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - On Thursday, the main contracts of bond futures opened lower across the board, with the 30 - year bond futures showing strong performance. The 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2512 rose 0.46%, the 10 - year T2512 rose 0.15%, the 5 - year TF2512 rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2512 rose 0.02% [1] - The central bank conducted 612 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 1.1 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on Thursday, with 2.0633 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 351.3 billion yuan [1] - On Thursday, the overnight inter - bank funding rate declined compared to the previous trading day. DR001 had a weighted average of 1.33% for the day, down from 1.39% the previous day; DR007 had a weighted average of 1.51%, up from 1.44% the previous day [1] - On Thursday, most of the closing yields of inter - bank bond cash bonds declined compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year bond yield fell 0.77 basis points to 1.49%, the 5 - year fell 0.57 basis points to 1.60%, the 10 - year fell 1.39 basis points to 1.85%, and the 30 - year rose 1.68 basis points to 2.26% [1] - During the 2025 National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, the cumulative cross - regional passenger flow reached 2.433 billion person - times, with a daily average of 304 million person - times, a 6.3% year - on - year increase compared to the same period in 2024, setting a new record [1] - During the 8 - day National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, the number of domestic trips reached 888 million person - times, an increase of 123 million person - times compared to the 7 - day National Day holiday in 2024; domestic tourism spending reached 809.006 billion yuan, an increase of 108.189 billion yuan compared to the 7 - day National Day holiday in 2024 [1] - On October 9, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued four announcements to implement export controls on related items such as super - hard materials, some rare - earth equipment and raw materials, some medium - heavy rare earths, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials [1] - China's official manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the sixth consecutive month. The new order index in September was 49.7%, still below the boom - bust line. The construction business activity index in September was 49.3%, and the service business activity index was 50.1%, showing a mild expansion, while the new order index for the service industry declined [2] - The central bank governor stated that China's monetary policy adheres to a domestic - oriented approach and balances domestic and international factors, and will use various monetary policy tools to ensure sufficient liquidity [2] - On Thursday, the Wind All - A Index opened slightly higher, fluctuated narrowly after a rally, and closed with a small positive line. The trading volume was 2.67 trillion yuan, larger than the previous trading day's 2.2 trillion yuan. Bond futures closed higher across the board without being affected by the stock market, and are expected to oscillate in the short term [2] - For trading - type investments, use a band - trading strategy [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday, the main contracts of bond futures opened lower across the board, with the 30 - year bond futures showing strong performance. The 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2512 rose 0.46%, the 10 - year T2512 rose 0.15%, the 5 - year TF2512 rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2512 rose 0.02% [1] - The Wind All - A Index opened slightly higher on Thursday, fluctuated narrowly after a rally, and closed with a small positive line. The trading volume was 2.67 trillion yuan, larger than the previous trading day's 2.2 trillion yuan [2] Important Information - The central bank conducted 612 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 1.1 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on Thursday, with 2.0633 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 351.3 billion yuan [1] - The overnight inter - bank funding rate declined on Thursday compared to the previous trading day. DR001 had a weighted average of 1.33% for the day, down from 1.39% the previous day; DR007 had a weighted average of 1.51%, up from 1.44% the previous day [1] - Most of the closing yields of inter - bank bond cash bonds declined on Thursday compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year bond yield fell 0.77 basis points to 1.49%, the 5 - year fell 0.57 basis points to 1.60%, the 10 - year fell 1.39 basis points to 1.85%, and the 30 - year rose 1.68 basis points to 2.26% [1] - During the 2025 National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, the cumulative cross - regional passenger flow reached 2.433 billion person - times, with a daily average of 304 million person - times, a 6.3% year - on - year increase compared to the same period in 2024, setting a new record [1] - During the 8 - day National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, the number of domestic trips reached 888 million person - times, an increase of 123 million person - times compared to the 7 - day National Day holiday in 2024; domestic tourism spending reached 809.006 billion yuan, an increase of 108.189 billion yuan compared to the 7 - day National Day holiday in 2024 [1] - On October 9, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued four announcements to implement export controls on related items such as super - hard materials, some rare - earth equipment and raw materials, some medium - heavy rare earths, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials [1] Market Logic - China's official manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the sixth consecutive month. The new order index in September was 49.7%, still below the boom - bust line. The construction business activity index in September was 49.3%, and the service business activity index was 50.1%, showing a mild expansion, while the new order index for the service industry declined [2] - The central bank governor stated that China's monetary policy adheres to a domestic - oriented approach and balances domestic and international factors, and will use various monetary policy tools to ensure sufficient liquidity [2] Trading Strategy - For trading - type investments, use a band - trading strategy [2]

Morning session notice 重要事项: 早盘提示 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2601 收于 1164.0，环比日盘开盘上涨 3.37%；焦炭主力合约 J2601 收于 1654.0，环比日盘开盘上涨 1.91%。夜盘焦煤主力合约 Jm2601 收 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 10 月 10 日星期五 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 夜盘甲醇主力合约期货价格下跌 | 5 | 元至 | 2293 | 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货价格下 | | | | | | | | | | 跌 | 29 | 元至 | 2213 | 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 | 80184 | 手至 | 61.4 | 万手，多头持仓 | 增加 | 92365 | 手至 | 74.99 | 万手。 | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 | 82.5%，环比+2.6%。海外甲醇开工率 | 67.9%，环比-4.2%。 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2、库存方面，中中国甲 ...