2025年11月28日 证券研究报告 | 服务主导新周期 ——对"十五五"中国经济趋势的判断 经济研究 · 宏观专题 证券分析师：李智能 证券分析师：田地 证券分析师：董德志 0755-22940456 0755-81982035 021-60933158 lizn@guosen.com.cn tiandi2@guosen.com.cn dongdz@guosen.com.cn S0980516060001 S0980524090003 S0980513100001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 2025年中国经济正经历三大深刻且相互关联的转变：（1）增长主引擎正从第二产业向更具潜 力的第三产业（服务业）切换；（2）建筑业自然萎缩；（3）内需主力从投资转向消费。 • "反内卷"=控供给+扩需求（主要针对实物产品部门），是串联这一切的主线。其路径清晰： 在供给端，建筑业的主动萎缩与工业产能出清，正是清理低效资本、发展新质生产力的关键一 步；需求端，资本存量过高背景下投资需求总量难以扩张（结构会有亮点），消费构成扩需求 主力，而发展服务业正是 ...

Core Insights - The report provides a summary of recommended stocks across various industries for December 2025, highlighting investment logic and potential growth opportunities for each company [2]. Industry Summaries Construction - Shenghui Integrated (603163.SH) is a Taiwanese cleanroom engineering service provider and a core engineering supplier for Google's TPU, poised to benefit from TSMC's expansion in the U.S. with potential orders from TSMC Arizona and multiple North American data centers [2]. Banking - China Merchants Bank (600036.SH) is expected to attract investors due to its stable operations and a projected dividend yield of 4.62% for the 2024 annual report, with increased demand for low-volatility stocks as market fluctuations rise [2]. Electronics - Aojie Technology (688220.SH) is positioned to benefit from the AI trend, with its unique 2-5G full-standard cellular communication capabilities and strong ASIC customization experience, which are expected to drive growth in wearable technology and other applications [2]. Power Equipment and New Energy - Delijia (603092.SH) maintains a leading market share in wind power main gearboxes, with a projected global market size of $11.563 billion by 2030 and a compound annual growth rate of 5.10% from 2024 to 2030, indicating stable growth prospects [2]. Basic Chemicals - Yaqi International (000893) is set to increase its potash fertilizer production capacity significantly, benefiting from a rising global potash market [2]. Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - Youran Dairy (9858.HK), a leading global dairy farming company, is expected to benefit from rising milk prices and beef prices, leading to improved performance [2]. Internet - Alibaba (9988.HK) is experiencing accelerated growth in cloud revenue, with a 34% year-on-year increase in FY26Q2, and is expected to continue improving profitability through enhanced user engagement and AI integration [2]. Pharmaceuticals - Yifeng Pharmacy (603939.SH) is anticipated to see profit improvements due to ongoing optimization of its store structure and a clear plan for non-pharmaceutical profit growth [2]. Home Appliances - Midea Group (000333.SZ) is focusing on dual-driven strategies in domestic and international markets, with strong cash flow and a favorable dividend yield, despite facing some pressure in Q4 [2]. Non-Bank Financials - Ping An Insurance (601318.SH) is increasing investments in high-quality long-term assets, with potential for valuation improvement as market conditions shift [2].

Core Insights - The report provides a summary of recommended stocks across various industries for December 2025, highlighting investment logic and potential growth opportunities for each company [2]. Industry Summaries Construction - Shenghui Integrated (603163.SH) is a Taiwanese cleanroom engineering service provider and a core engineering supplier for Google's TPU, poised to benefit from TSMC's expansion in the U.S. with potential orders from TSMC Arizona and multiple North American data centers [2]. Banking - China Merchants Bank (600036.SH) is expected to attract investors due to its stable operations and a projected dividend yield of 4.62% for the 2024 annual report, with increased demand for low-volatility stocks as market fluctuations rise [2]. Electronics - Aojie Technology (688220.SH) is positioned to benefit from the AI trend, with its unique 2-5G full-standard cellular communication capabilities and strong ASIC customization experience, which is expected to drive growth in wearable technology [2]. Power Equipment and New Energy - Delijia (603092.SH) maintains a leading market share in wind power main gearboxes, with a projected global market size of $11.563 billion by 2030 and a compound annual growth rate of 5.10% from 2024 to 2030 [2]. Basic Chemicals - Yaqi International (000893) is set to increase its potash fertilizer production capacity significantly, benefiting from a rising global potash market [2]. Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - Youran Dairy (9858.HK), a leading global dairy farming company, is expected to benefit from rising milk prices and beef price increases, leading to improved performance [2]. Internet - Alibaba (9988.HK) is experiencing accelerated growth in cloud revenue, with a 34% year-on-year increase in FY26Q2, and is expected to continue improving profitability [2]. Pharmaceuticals - Yifeng Pharmacy (603939.SH) is anticipated to see profit improvements due to ongoing optimization of its store structure and a clear planning rhythm for non-pharmaceutical profit increments [2]. Home Appliances - Midea Group (000333.SZ) is advancing its dual-driven strategy, focusing on both B2B and B2C markets, with strong cash flow and a favorable dividend yield, making it an attractive investment [2]. Non-Banking Financials - Ping An Insurance (601318.SH) is increasing investments in high-quality long-term assets, with potential for valuation improvement as market conditions shift [2].

Group 1: AI Empowerment in Asset Allocation - The report discusses the performance of three representative AI asset management products: AIEQ, ProPicks, and QRFT, evaluating whether AI can provide excess returns to investors [8] - AIEQ, an actively managed ETF, has underperformed SPY due to high market sentiment volatility and cost erosion from high turnover rates [8] - ProPicks has shown strong returns during favorable tech periods but is highly sensitive to execution discipline and slippage, making actual replication challenging [8] - QRFT has closely tracked the S&P 500 over the long term, showing significant phase differentiation, indicating a focus on narrow enhancements rather than stable high alpha [8] Group 2: Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology Sector - The pharmaceutical sector underperformed the overall market, with a 4.32% decline in the A-share market, and the biopharmaceutical sector fell by 6.88% [10] - The report highlights the treatment options for Hidradenitis Suppurativa (HS), noting that the prevalence in Western populations is approximately 1%, with around 320,000 diagnosed patients in the U.S. [11] - First-line therapies for HS primarily involve antibiotics, while second-line biological treatments include Adalimumab and IL-17A inhibitors, which have gained market share due to their efficacy and safety [11] Group 3: Atour (ATAT.O) Financial Performance - Atour reported a 38% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, raising its full-year revenue growth guidance from 30% to 35% [13] - The company’s retail business saw a remarkable 76% revenue growth, significantly contributing to the overall performance [13] - The number of hotels in operation increased by 27% year-on-year, with a total of 1,948 hotels by the end of Q3 2025 [14] Group 4: Hars (002615.SZ) Industry Leadership - Hars is a leading company in the cup and kettle industry, with a projected revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% from 2021 to 2024, reaching 3.3 billion [17] - The company operates both OEM/ODM and proprietary brand businesses, maintaining stable partnerships with international brands like YETI and PMI [17] - The domestic market for insulated cups is expected to replicate overseas trends, with significant growth potential driven by IP collaborations and social media marketing [18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [6]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, Xiaomi achieved a record high profit with total revenue of 113.12 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 22.3% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 2.4%. Adjusted net profit reached 11.31 billion yuan, up 80.9% year-over-year and 4.4% quarter-over-quarter. The gross margin improved to 22.9%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-over-year and 0.4 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [2][4]. - The smart electric vehicle (EV) business reported its first quarterly profit, generating an operating income of 700 million yuan. In Q3 2025, the company delivered 109,000 new vehicles, with automotive revenue reaching 28.3 billion yuan and a gross margin of 25.5% [2][3]. - The smartphone and AIoT business remained stable, with smartphone revenue of 46 billion yuan and a global shipment of 43.3 million units, maintaining a market share of 13.6%. The newly launched Xiaomi 17 series saw a sales increase of approximately 30% in its first month [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2025 total revenue was 113.12 billion yuan, with adjusted net profit at 11.31 billion yuan. The gross margin was 22.9% [2][4]. - The company expects net profit for 2025-2027 to be 43 billion, 51.4 billion, and 62.3 billion yuan respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 82%, 19%, and 21% [4][5]. Business Segments - The smartphone segment generated 46 billion yuan in revenue, while the IoT and lifestyle products segment brought in 27.6 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 23.9% [3][4]. - The smart EV segment achieved a revenue of 28.3 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 25.5% [2][3]. Research and Development - R&D expenses reached 9.1 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 52.1%. The company continues to invest heavily in core technologies to enhance its ecosystem [3][4].

Core Insights - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for the retail sector, highlighting the potential for recovery in consumer demand and the importance of adapting to new market conditions [1][4][10] 2025 Industry Review - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's retail sales reached 365,877 billion yuan, growing by 4.5% year-on-year, with non-automotive retail sales increasing by 4.9% [2][10] - The cosmetics sector saw a stable growth of 3.9%, while gold and jewelry sales surged by 11.5% due to low base effects and rising gold prices [2][26] - Cross-border e-commerce imports and exports amounted to approximately 2.06 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 6.4% despite external pressures [2][33] 2026 Outlook - New markets will be explored, including offline channel adjustments and innovations in instant retail, alongside continued overseas expansion opportunities [3][61] - New consumer demands will focus on emotional and practical value, leveraging AI and IP for product innovation [3][66] - A platform-based approach is necessary to ensure sustainable growth amid intensifying competition and shorter product life cycles [3][66] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in beauty care, gold and jewelry, cross-border e-commerce, and offline retail, with specific recommendations for companies like Up Beauty, Chow Tai Fook, and Yonghui Superstores [4][34] - The beauty care sector is expected to benefit from product innovation and platform capabilities, while gold and jewelry companies are advised to capitalize on differentiated designs [4][45] - Cross-border e-commerce firms are projected to thrive as external tariff impacts diminish, with recommendations for companies like Anker Innovations and Focus Technology [4][54] Consumer Behavior Trends - The report notes a structural shift in consumer preferences, with a growing emphasis on emotional value and product differentiation, particularly among younger demographics [3][78] - Instant retail is identified as a significant growth area, with the market expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan by 2030 [3][80] Cross-Border E-commerce Insights - Cross-border e-commerce continues to show resilience, with exports to the EU growing by 8.4% while exports to the US declined by 17% due to tariff impacts [33][87] - Successful brands in overseas markets are those that effectively combine global branding with localized operational strategies [87]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors - The report focuses on market performance, market sentiment, and capital flow analysis - The report includes detailed statistics on market indices, industry performance, and concept themes[2][6][7][9] - The report provides data on daily limit-up and limit-down stocks, as well as the sealing rate and continuous board rate[12][15] - The report includes information on financing and securities lending balances, ETF premiums and discounts, and block trading discounts[17][21][24] - The report also covers institutional attention and the Dragon and Tiger list, detailing the net inflow and outflow of institutional seats and Northbound funds[28][34][35]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time [6]. Core Insights - Hars is a leading company in the domestic cup and kettle industry, focusing on both OEM/ODM and proprietary brand businesses, with a projected revenue CAGR of 25% from 2021 to 2024, reaching 3.3 billion yuan, and net profit increasing from 136 million yuan to 287 million yuan by 2024 [1][22]. - The cup and kettle industry is evolving from durable goods to fashionable consumer products, with significant growth potential in both domestic and international markets [1][2]. - The company has established strong partnerships with international brands like YETI and PMI, enhancing its competitive advantage through advanced manufacturing capabilities and a robust customer base [3][54]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Hars, founded in 1996, is a prominent manufacturer of stainless steel vacuum insulated containers, with a comprehensive supply chain from R&D to production [14][22]. - The company operates both OEM/ODM and proprietary brand businesses, with brands including Hars and SIGG targeting different consumer segments [14][70]. Industry Analysis - The global insulated cup market is estimated to exceed 37 billion USD, with North America being a major demand region [33]. - The domestic insulated cup market is projected to surpass 400 billion yuan, indicating substantial growth potential compared to mature markets like Japan and the USA [37][40]. Competitive Advantages - Hars maintains a leading position in R&D and production capabilities, with a focus on digital transformation and smart manufacturing [3][55]. - The company has a solid foundation of long-term partnerships with major international clients, which supports its market expansion [54][65]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 24.07 billion yuan in 2023 to 33.32 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit forecast of 250 million yuan in 2023, declining to 141 million yuan in 2025 due to transitional production impacts [5][22]. - The projected EPS for 2025 is 0.30 yuan, with a PE ratio of 27, indicating a reasonable valuation range of 8.77 to 9.94 yuan per share [4][6].

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

Core Insights - The report analyzes three representative AI asset management products: AIEQ, ProPicks, and QRFT, assessing whether AI can deliver excess returns for investors [2] - Overall, while overseas AI asset management products have improved quality and efficiency, they should not be overly "mythologized" [2] - AI's more reliable value lies in enhancing information processing efficiency and standardizing investment research processes rather than consistently outperforming indices [2] Group 1: AI-Driven Asset Management: Progress and Cases - The evolution of global financial markets reflects a historical contest between computational power and data processing capabilities [3] - Traditional quantitative investment relies on linear regression and statistical arbitrage, while AI-driven asset management represents a fundamental paradigm shift [3][4] - New AI stock selection strategies utilize deep learning, reinforcement learning, and natural language processing, enabling the identification of non-linear market patterns [4] Group 2: Case Study 1: AIEQ ETF Introduction - AIEQ is the world's first actively managed ETF entirely driven by AI, launched on October 17, 2017 [5] - The fund's investment strategy involves high-frequency scanning and sentiment analysis of the entire market information environment [5] - AIEQ's model processes millions of unstructured texts daily, aiming to capture undervalued stocks before market sentiment changes [5] Group 3: AIEQ Performance Analysis - As of November 2025, AIEQ's performance shows it has underperformed the S&P 500 index, with a YTD return of approximately 9.38% compared to the S&P 500's 12.45% [10] - Over one year, AIEQ returned about +6.15%, while the S&P 500 returned +11.00% [13] - AIEQ's annual turnover rate reached an astonishing 1159%, which significantly erodes fund value due to transaction costs [18] Group 4: Case Study 2: Investing ProPicks - ProPicks represents a different AI investment approach through a signal subscription model, allowing users to retain execution rights [21] - The platform utilizes a vast historical database and AI algorithms to provide monthly stock selection lists [21] - The "Tech Titans" strategy under ProPicks has achieved a cumulative return of 98.7% since its launch, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 [25] Group 5: Case Study 3: QRFT - QRFT is an AI-enhanced ETF that optimizes traditional factor investment frameworks using AI models [39] - The fund's performance has been slightly better than the S&P 500, with a year-to-date return of approximately +21% as of November 2025 [45] - QRFT's annual turnover rate is around 267%, indicating a high-frequency rebalancing strategy [48]