Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Air China [2][10]. Core Insights - In 2024, Air China achieved revenue of 166.699 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.14%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -237 million yuan, a reduction in losses of 77.32% compared to the same period in 2023 [3]. - The report highlights a significant increase in capacity and passenger load factor, with capacity up by 21.74% and load factor up by 6.63 percentage points to 79.85%, despite a 12.41% decline in revenue per passenger kilometer [3][4]. - The airline industry is expected to focus on stabilizing prices and improving revenue quality in 2025, as the Civil Aviation Administration of China emphasizes the need for better supply-demand matching and price regulation [5]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 166.699 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 18.14% [10]. - The net profit for 2025 is estimated to be 3.975 billion yuan, with an EPS of 0.23 yuan [10]. - The gross margin for passenger transport in 2024 was 4.13%, showing a slight increase from the previous year, but still at a low level [5]. Operational Insights - Domestic routes saw a capacity increase of 5.36% and a load factor improvement of 7.04 percentage points, while revenue per passenger kilometer decreased by 9.70% [4]. - International routes experienced a 100.50% increase in capacity, with a load factor increase of 8.52 percentage points, but revenue per passenger kilometer fell by 22.63% [4]. - The company plans to introduce 47 new aircraft in 2025 while retiring 17, maintaining a low growth rate in fleet size to manage supply pressures [5].

公 司 研 究 贵州茅台（600519.SH）：24 年完满 收官，25 年迎接新挑战 事件：2024 年公司实现营业总收入 1741.44 亿，同比增长 15.66%，归母净 利润 862.28 亿，同比增长 15.38%。其中，24Q4 营业总收入 510.22 亿， 同比增长 12.77%，归母净利润 254.01 亿，同比增长 16.21%。在 24 年复 杂的环境下，公司完成年初制定的销售目标。 茅台酒和系列酒吨价上行。24 年茅台酒营业收入 1459.28 亿元，同比增长 15.28%。其中茅台酒销量 4.64 万吨，同比增长 10.22%，吨价同比增长 4.59%。吨价的大幅提升主要是因为 23 年底飞天茅台提价，同时生肖酒和精 品茅台放量带来的。24 年系列酒营收 246.84 亿，同比增长 19.65%，系列 酒在 2024Q2 增速达到 42.52%，但是 2024Q3 和 Q4 增速分别为 13.14%和 5.07%，主要是 1935 的投放量在下半年降速所致。24 年系列酒销量 3.69 万 吨，同比增长 18.47%，吨价同比增长 1%。 直营渠道略下滑，线下渠道更为重视。24 年茅 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for Guizhou Moutai, indicating a strong expectation for the company's performance relative to market benchmarks [4]. Core Views - In 2024, Guizhou Moutai achieved total revenue of 174.14 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.66%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 86.23 billion, up 15.38% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 51.02 billion, growing 12.77% year-on-year, with net profit of 25.40 billion, an increase of 16.21% year-on-year [1]. - The report highlights the upward trend in the price of Moutai liquor and series liquor, with Moutai liquor revenue reaching 145.93 billion, a 15.28% increase year-on-year, and series liquor revenue at 24.68 billion, up 19.65% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is focusing more on offline channels, with direct sales channel revenue at 74.84 billion, growing 11.32% year-on-year, while the iMoutai platform saw a decline of 10.51% [2]. Financial Forecasts - For 2025, the company aims for a revenue growth of approximately 9%, with a net profit growth of 9.54%, leading to an expected EPS of 75.19. The current stock price corresponds to a valuation of 19.95 times earnings [2][3]. - The financial indicators predict a steady growth trajectory, with revenue expected to reach 189.82 billion in 2025, and net profit projected at 94.45 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 9.54% [3][8]. Company Overview - Guizhou Moutai, established in 1951, is a leading high-end liquor company in China, renowned for its Moutai liquor, which is produced using traditional methods and has a significant global brand presence [5]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 1,940.83 billion, with a 52-week stock price range between 1,748.0 and 1,261.0 [5]. Analyst Insights - The report emphasizes the company's ability to maintain a strong market share in the high-end liquor segment, particularly as the macroeconomic environment improves, suggesting that Guizhou Moutai can achieve growth exceeding the industry average [2][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China National Aviation (601111.SH) [2][10] Core Views - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 166.699 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.14%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -237 million yuan, a reduction in loss of 77.32% compared to the same period in 2023 [3] - The report highlights a significant increase in capacity and passenger load factor, but a decline in passenger kilometer revenue, indicating a trend of volume increase but price decrease across the industry [3][4] - The company is expected to benefit from improvements in ticket prices in 2025, as the focus shifts from increasing load factors to enhancing revenue quality [5][10] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 4.13% in its passenger business, slightly up from the previous year, but still at a low level [5] - The company plans to introduce 47 new aircraft in 2025 while retiring 17, maintaining a low growth rate in supply to alleviate excess capacity pressure [5] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 3.98 billion, 7.79 billion, and 9.44 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.23, 0.45, and 0.54 yuan [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [6] Core Viewpoints - The recent imposition of tariffs by the U.S. is expected to significantly impact the export of energy storage batteries from China, while the direct export of power batteries and new energy vehicles will be less affected [2][4] - In 2024, China's export scale of power and energy storage batteries is projected to reach 197.1 GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 29.2%, where power and energy storage batteries account for 68% and 32% respectively [2] - The tariffs on lithium batteries exported to the U.S. have reached high levels, with power batteries facing a tariff of 82.4% and energy storage batteries at 64.9% [3] - The U.S. battery industry has a high degree of reliance on foreign supply, providing an opportunity for Chinese companies to maintain competitive advantages in the industry [5] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The recent tariffs will lead to a significant increase in export prices for batteries, with energy storage batteries being more affected than power batteries [3][4] - The U.S. is still the largest export market for Chinese lithium batteries, accounting for 25% of total exports [2] Market Dynamics - The U.S. domestic battery production capacity is limited, creating a gap of over 20 GWh, which Chinese companies can fill [5] - The technology for lithium iron phosphate, a key material for energy storage batteries, is primarily controlled by Chinese manufacturers, giving them a competitive edge [5] Future Outlook - Chinese lithium battery companies are actively expanding overseas to mitigate the impact of tariffs, establishing production capacities in regions with lower tax rates [5][10] - The overall market for energy storage batteries is expected to grow, with significant demand projected in the coming years [4]

行 业 研 究 轻工制造行业：关税加征影响出口 产业链，等待关税政策明朗 事件：2025 年 4 月 2 日，美国总统特朗普在白宫签署两项关于所谓"对等关税" 的行政令，宣布美国对贸易伙伴设立 10%的"最低基准关税"，并对某些贸易伙 伴征收更高关税。2025 年 4 月 4 日，中方对原产于美国的所有进口商品加征 34%关税。 "对等关税"对我国及东南亚国家同步加征关税，为轻工出口业务带来不确定 性。特朗普展示的图表显示，对中国产品加征 34%关税，对越南产品征收 46% 关税，对泰国产品征收 36%关税，对印度尼西亚产品征收 32%关税，对马来 西亚产品征收 24%关税。本次关税加征幅度及范围均超过我们的预期。轻工企 业近年有加速东南亚产能的布局，但本次关税的"无差别攻击"，对企业出口 直接贸易及转口贸易均有较大影响，轻工对美出口业务短期面临不确定性。考 虑到轻工为劳动密集型产业，难以回流至人均收入高的美国，我们认为仍需发 展中国家承担生产，后续关税政策或仍有变化可能，如财联社消息：特朗普与 越南、印度和以色列的代表就关税谈判进行了交谈，越南等国存在降关税可能 性。但我们认为即使越南等国与美国达成降税协议 ...

行 业 研 究 纺织服装：短期加征关税有所影响， 长期纺织企业制造优势仍在 事件：美国时间 4 月 2 日特朗普宣布对等关税相关政策并签署总统行政令。 美国将对所有进口商品加征基础 10%的全面关税。部分国家与地区将面临更 高税率。对等税率更高的经济体包括欧盟（20%）、日本（24%）、韩国（25%）、 中国大陆及港澳（34%）、中国台湾（32%）、印度（26%）、泰国（36%）、越 南（46%）、缅甸（44%）等。 我国纺织业为出口导向型，在全球产业链中有着举足轻重的地位。我国是全球 纺织品和服装出口绝对龙头。根据世界贸易组织数据，2023 年全球纺织品出 口总额约为 3240.84 亿美元，其中来自于中国的纺织品出口金额为 1343.36 亿美元，占全球纺织品出口总额的 41.45%；2023 年全球服装出口总额约为 5480.46 亿美元，来自于中国的服装出口金额 1647.43 亿美元，占全球服装出 口总额的 30.06%。除了国内直接出口，头部的服装和鞋制造商海外产能占比 较高，如鞋制造商华利集团产能 100%在境外（主要在越南），服装制造商申洲 国际员工数有 57%位于越南和柬埔寨，而这些国家和地 ...

行 业 研 通信行业：中美关税博弈，通信零 部件国产替代进程有望加速 事件：4月2日，美国总统特朗普宣布，美国对所有贸易伙伴设立10% 的"最低基准关税"，其中对中国征收的"对等关税"税率为34%，对华总 关税将达54%。4月4日，中国宣布对原产于美国的所有进口商品，在 现行适用关税税率基础上加征34%关税。 点评： 美国高关税政策对国内通信光模块、物联网模组板块冲击较大，运营 商、卫星互联网、IDC、工业通信等板块影响较小。目前部分通信企业 尚未发布 2024 年年报，我们整理 2023 年通信上市企业国内收入占比 数据。2023 年通信子行业国内收入占比如下：运营商（100%）、IDC （99%）、工业通信（92%）、卫星互联网（85%）、5G 通信设备（80%）、 光纤光缆（78%）、算力设备（68%）、物联网模组（51%）、光模块（49%）。 尽管短期美国关税政策对光模块、物联网模组行业正常经营造成冲击， 但中长期看，受 AI 产业驱动，光模块、物联网模组行业成长路径确定， 建议继续关注 1.6T 光模块大规模部署进展以及 5G Redcap 模组、算 力模组应用进展。 对等关税下，部分进口依赖度较高 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for the electronics sector is "Positive" [5]. Core Viewpoints - The imposition of tariffs is expected to accelerate domestic substitution and industry upgrades in China, particularly in the semiconductor sector [2][4]. - The tariffs will lead to increased costs and supply chain adjustments, prompting Chinese companies to seek alternative suppliers outside the U.S. [2]. - The domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturing process is anticipated to enter a rapid development phase due to the rising costs of imported equipment [3]. - The tariff barriers are driving structural changes in the global supply chain, with a focus on domestic production and technological iteration [4]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The U.S. has imposed a 10% baseline tariff globally, with an additional 34% tariff on Chinese goods, affecting the electronics trade significantly [1][2]. - In 2024, China's imports from the U.S. are projected to be approximately $163.62 billion, with machinery and electronics accounting for about 23.17% of this total [2]. Domestic Equipment and Semiconductor Development - The global market for semiconductor equipment is dominated by U.S. companies, which hold about 40% market share. The tariffs are expected to increase the cost of importing these critical devices [3]. - The domestic self-sufficiency rate for analog chips in China is around 15% as of 2023, and the tariffs are likely to enhance the competitiveness of local manufacturers [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the domestic electronics industry can achieve advantages through a combination of domestic substitution, technological iteration, and global collaboration [4]. - Beneficiary companies identified include Shengbang Co., Sirepo, Xidi Micro, Nanchip Technology, and others [4].

光伏行业对等关税征收点评：贸易 壁垒高悬，全球竞争加剧 ——光伏行业事件点评 事件： 4 月 2 日，美国宣布"对等关税"举措，即美国对贸易伙伴设立 10％的"最低基准 关税"，并对某些贸易伙伴征收更高关税，包括中国（34%）、越南（46%）、 泰国（36%）、印度尼西亚（32%）、柬埔寨（49%）、老挝（48%）、马来西亚 （24%）。4 月 4 日，中方发布系列反制措施，对原产于美国的所有进口商品， 在现行适用关税税率基础上加征 34%关税。 点评： 本次加征对等关税举措与美国扶持本土新能源制造战略相契合。美国一直致力 于提升本土新能源制造产业的相对竞争力，在本次对等关税举措前，美国推出 了通胀削减法案以扶持新能源产业，同时也通过重启反规避调查等举措推升进 口产品关税，在本次对等关税之前，中国光伏行业出口美国的贸易壁垒早已高 悬。美国加征对等关税后，预计随着低成本组件供应进一步缩减，美国光伏组 件等产品的价格或将上涨，进而推升光伏电站投资成本上升，抑制短期光伏新 增装机；从长期看，对等关税的举措，与美国扶持本土新能源制造的战略相符， 或将促进美国光伏制造业的投资和发展。 加征对等关税影响小于双反，边际影响 ...