Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the index is expected to break through strongly, with consumer stocks taking the lead over the previously dominant technology sector. This shift is supported by ongoing policy catalysts, particularly the recent issuance of the "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" by the central government, which outlines 30 key tasks across eight areas to stimulate consumption [4][8]. - The report highlights that the comprehensive approach to stimulate consumption reflects a strong governmental commitment, indicating that various levels of government and financial institutions are expected to implement policies to boost consumer spending. The potential impact of local policies, such as those related to birth rates, is also noted as a significant factor for future consumption trends [4][5]. - The report suggests that while the technology sector remains a key focus, the current market sentiment is shifting towards value, with a notable rise in consumer stocks. The index is anticipated to experience a strong breakthrough, supported by the financial sector [4][9]. Group 2 - The report identifies a potential turning point for consumption, marking the introduction of the "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" as a significant milestone. It argues that the recovery of consumption will primarily be driven by policy rather than a swift economic rebound, indicating a gradual process ahead [5][9]. - The report advises investors to actively allocate resources towards the consumer sector, as it is expected to experience a slow bull market. Even if short-term performance does not improve rapidly, changes in market expectations could lead to earlier valuation adjustments [5][9]. - The report also suggests a balanced investment strategy, recommending a focus on consumer stocks and cyclical sectors, while highlighting the potential of the military industry, particularly in segments like drones and missiles, as areas of interest [5][9].

指数有望强势突破 消费迎来重要拐点 2025 年 3 月 18 日 A 股策略 策略周报 | | | 周度观点： 指数有望强势突破。我们上周重点强调了要重视消费，从周五指数全面上涨来看，大消费接替前期大科技板块成为领涨 核心。一方面政策催化是行情启动的催化剂，两会后政策持续落地是我们看好消费的重要依据，从目前政策导向来看， 中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅近日印发《提振消费专项行动方案》。行动方案部署了 8 方面 30 项重点任务，包括城乡 居民增收促进行动、消费能力保障支持行动、服务消费提质惠民行动、大宗消费更新升级行动、消费品质提升行动、消 费环境改善提升行动、限制措施清理优化行动、完善支持政策。国家通过综合性方案解决消费问题的态度是十分坚决的， 启动消费不是依靠某个政策，而是全方位综合性提出整体方案，无论是金融机构，还是上至部委，下至各地区，都从自 身角度出发推出刺激消费政策。从内蒙生育政策落地来看，未来各地都有可能出台类似政策，要重视政策对生育刺激的 后续效果，我们认为，政策刺激力度还是比较大的。前期，我们一直强调大科技板块是最核心板块，短期调整更多是交 易层面的节奏问题，展望后市，大科技板块仍然是重点关 ...

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 分析师推荐 【东兴电子】兴森科技（002436.SZ）：深耕 PCB 行业，受益于 AI+ 国产替代双轮驱动（20250317） 公司是国内 PCB 样板快件、批量板细分领域的龙头企业，股权结构稳定。 根据 Prismark 公布的 2023 年全球 PCB 前四十大供应商，公司位列第二十 九名。公司产品应用于通信、工控、轨道交通、医疗电子、计算机及外设、 半导体等领域，资源遍及全球三十多个国家和地区。公司股权结构稳定，各 子公司分工明确，协同合作。截至 2024 年三季度报，邱醒亚作为公司实际 控制人，占股 14.46%，为第一大股东。 公司围绕"PCB"与"半导体"两大核心业务，近年来 IC 封装基板营收占 比不断提升。公司半导体业务聚焦 IC 封装基板，国产化进程加快，产能有望 进一步提升。FCBGA 封装基板已通过多家客户认证、交付数款样品订单， 现已进入小批量量产阶段。公司 PCB 样板、小批量板保持总营收 75%以上 的占比，IC 封装基板在 2020-2023 年间营收占比不断提升，截至 2023 年已 占总营收的 15.32%。 公司在面临 2023 年 PCB ...

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 分析师推荐 【东兴电子】兴森科技（002436.SZ）：深耕 PCB 行业，受益于 AI+ 国产替代双轮驱动（20250317） 公司是国内 PCB 样板快件、批量板细分领域的龙头企业，股权结构稳定。 根据 Prismark 公布的 2023 年全球 PCB 前四十大供应商，公司位列第二十 九名。公司产品应用于通信、工控、轨道交通、医疗电子、计算机及外设、 半导体等领域，资源遍及全球三十多个国家和地区。公司股权结构稳定，各 子公司分工明确，协同合作。截至 2024 年三季度报，邱醒亚作为公司实际 控制人，占股 14.46%，为第一大股东。 公司围绕"PCB"与"半导体"两大核心业务，近年来 IC 封装基板营收占 比不断提升。公司半导体业务聚焦 IC 封装基板，国产化进程加快，产能有望 进一步提升。FCBGA 封装基板已通过多家客户认证、交付数款样品订单， 现已进入小批量量产阶段。公司 PCB 样板、小批量板保持总营收 75%以上 的占比，IC 封装基板在 2020-2023 年间营收占比不断提升，截至 2023 年已 占总营收的 15.32%。 公司在面临 2023 年 PCB ...

越秀交通基建（01052.HK）：平临高速将增厚 25 年业绩，收费权摊销略高于预期 2025 年 3 月 17 日 强烈推荐/维持 越秀交通基建 公司报告 事件：公司发布 24 年年报，全年实现收入 38.7 亿元，同比下降 2.5%，其中路 费收入 37.9 亿元，同比下降 1.4%。归母净利润 6.57 亿元，同比下降 14.2%， 公司业绩符合预期。 极端天气和部分路段的路网分流导致报告期收入端有所下降：24 年公司路费收 入下降的原因主要系：1. 我国中东部地区受 24 年春节前后大范围雨雪低温冰冻 天气影响；2. 报告期节假日免费通行天数较 23 年多 3 天；3. 部分项目受路网分 流影响。 路网分流方面，具体到各个路产：1. 公司核心路产广州北二环高速收入同比下降 6.2%，主要系 23 年 10 月开始与北二环高速相连的从浦高速开通，导致部分车 流行驶路径缩短；2. 湖北汉蔡高速收入同比下降 8.3%，除了极端天气影响外， 23 年平行路段封闭施工导致基数较高也是 24 年收入下降的因素；3. 湖北汉鄂高 速和大广南高速收入分别同比增长 58.1%和下降 11.9%，主要系武黄高速封闭施 工 ...

宁波高发（603788.SH）：受益汽车 电动智能化趋势，公司强成本控制、 高效率将持续领先 公司为汽车变速操纵控制系统龙头企业。成立于 1999 年，实控人为钱氏家族， 主营产品包括汽车变速操纵系统总成、电子油门踏板和汽车拉索等三大类， 2023 年营收占比分别为 51%/18%/18%。公司客户充分覆盖吉利、比亚迪、长 城、长安、赛力斯、奇瑞等几十家国内头部主机厂。 电动化/智能化趋势带动电子换挡器/油门踏板产品需求增长。电子电气架构革 新推动汽车电子产品在整车中的渗透率不断提升。线控换挡系统可与自动驾驶 控制系统中自适应巡航系统、驾驶模式控制系统等结合。公司主营产品电子换 挡器、电子油门踏板等受益新能源电动化和智能化的趋势，在新能源渗透率持 续提升的背景下，产品份额有望保持增长。 自主品牌配套份额大幅领先同业，有望发力合资与海外市场。2024 年我国自 主品牌乘用车销量 1,385 万辆，同比+23%，占比 60%。公司产品主要配套自 主品牌，自主品牌销量占比持续提升带动公司电子换挡器与电子油门踏板产品 出货量增长，2023 年公司乘用车电子油门踏板市占率 26%，基于自主品牌乘 用车销量测算公司占自主 ...

越秀交通基建（01052.HK）：平临高速将增厚 25 年业绩，收费权摊销略高于预期 2025 年 3 月 17 日 强烈推荐/维持 越秀交通基建 公司报告 事件：公司发布 24 年年报，全年实现收入 38.7 亿元，同比下降 2.5%，其中路 费收入 37.9 亿元，同比下降 1.4%。归母净利润 6.57 亿元，同比下降 14.2%， 公司业绩符合预期。 极端天气和部分路段的路网分流导致报告期收入端有所下降：24 年公司路费收 入下降的原因主要系：1. 我国中东部地区受 24 年春节前后大范围雨雪低温冰冻 天气影响；2. 报告期节假日免费通行天数较 23 年多 3 天；3. 部分项目受路网分 流影响。 路网分流方面，具体到各个路产：1. 公司核心路产广州北二环高速收入同比下降 6.2%，主要系 23 年 10 月开始与北二环高速相连的从浦高速开通，导致部分车 流行驶路径缩短；2. 湖北汉蔡高速收入同比下降 8.3%，除了极端天气影响外， 23 年平行路段封闭施工导致基数较高也是 24 年收入下降的因素；3. 湖北汉鄂高 速和大广南高速收入分别同比增长 58.1%和下降 11.9%，主要系武黄高速封闭施 工 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a projected PE of 19.8x for 2024, 15.9x for 2025, and 12.9x for 2026, indicating a positive outlook for the company's performance [11]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the automotive electronic shifting and throttle control systems, benefiting from the trends of electrification and intelligence in the automotive industry. Its strong cost control and high efficiency are expected to maintain its competitive edge [1][4]. - The company has a significant market share in the domestic automotive market, particularly with independent brands, and is poised to expand into joint ventures and overseas markets [2][4]. - The company's financial health is robust, with stable cash flow and increasing dividends, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 1999, specializes in automotive shifting control systems, electronic throttle pedals, and cables, with a revenue distribution of 51% from shifting systems, 18% from electronic throttle pedals, and 18% from cables in 2023 [1][16]. - It has a strong customer base, including major domestic manufacturers like Geely, BYD, and Great Wall [1][16]. Product Demand and Market Position - The demand for electronic shifting systems and throttle pedals is increasing due to the trends of electrification and automation in vehicles. The penetration of automotive electronics is expected to rise significantly, with the company poised to capture a growing market share [1][42]. - The company has a competitive advantage in supplying independent brands, with an estimated market share of nearly 50% in this segment, and is expanding its reach to joint venture and overseas markets [2][4]. Financial Performance and Efficiency - The company has demonstrated excellent cost control and operational efficiency, with a management expense ratio approximately 10 percentage points lower than industry peers. Its inventory turnover and fixed asset turnover rates are consistently above industry averages [3][4]. - The company has maintained a stable cash flow, with an average net inflow of 150 million yuan annually since its listing, and a cash dividend payout ratio consistently above 70% [3][4]. Profit Forecast and Investment Value - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 1.49 billion yuan, 1.73 billion yuan, and 2.03 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.0%, 16.2%, and 16.9% [4][12]. - The projected net profit for the same years is 201 million yuan, 250 million yuan, and 309 million yuan, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [4][12].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4][27] Core Insights - In February, new home prices in first-tier cities increased month-on-month, while second-hand home prices across all city tiers continued to decline [1][3] - The year-on-year decline in new and second-hand home prices across various city tiers has narrowed [2][3] Summary by Sections Month-on-Month Price Changes - In February, the new residential sales price index for 70 large and medium-sized cities showed a month-on-month growth rate of -0.1%, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The new residential sales price index for first-tier cities increased by 0.1%, with Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou showing month-on-month growth rates of 0.1%, 0.2%, 0.4%, and -0.2% respectively [1] - The second-hand residential price index for 70 cities decreased by 0.3%, consistent with the previous value [1] Year-on-Year Price Changes - The year-on-year growth rate for the new residential sales price index across 70 cities was -5.2%, an improvement from -5.4% [2] - The first-tier cities' new residential sales price index year-on-year growth rate was -3.0%, compared to -3.4% previously [2] - The second-hand residential price index for 70 cities showed a year-on-year decline of -7.5%, slightly better than -7.8% previously [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that various policy tools working in tandem are expected to stabilize the real estate market gradually [3] - Short-term focus should be on valuation recovery opportunities due to policy easing, while long-term focus should be on leading companies with core city resources and real estate operational capabilities [3] - Recommended companies include Poly Developments, China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, Greentown China, and Yuexiu Property [3]

2025 年 3 月 17 日 强烈推荐/维持 越秀交通基建 公司报告 事件：公司发布 24 年年报，全年实现收入 38.7 亿元，同比下降 2.5%，其中路 费收入 37.9 亿元，同比下降 1.4%。归母净利润 6.57 亿元，同比下降 14.2%， 公司业绩符合预期。 越秀交通基建（01052.HK）：平临高速将增厚 25 年业绩，收费权摊销略高于预期 极端天气和部分路段的路网分流导致报告期收入端有所下降：24 年公司路费收 入下降的原因主要系：1. 我国中东部地区受 24 年春节前后大范围雨雪低温冰冻 天气影响；2. 报告期节假日免费通行天数较 23 年多 3 天；3. 部分项目受路网分 流影响。 路网分流方面，具体到各个路产：1. 公司核心路产广州北二环高速收入同比下降 6.2%，主要系 23 年 10 月开始与北二环高速相连的从浦高速开通，导致部分车 流行驶路径缩短；2. 湖北汉蔡高速收入同比下降 8.3%，除了极端天气影响外， 23 年平行路段封闭施工导致基数较高也是 24 年收入下降的因素；3. 湖北汉鄂高 速和大广南高速收入分别同比增长 58.1%和下降 11.9%，主要系武黄高速封闭施 工 ...