2025 年 05 月 19 日 证券分析师 房诚琦 执业证书：S0600522100002 fangcq@dwzq.com.cn 证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·房地产 房地产行业跟踪周报 新房二手房成交面积环比改善，持续推进城市 更新 增持（维持） 行业走势 《公积金贷款利率下调，市场有望逐 步企稳》 2025-05-13 《三部委发布会点评：公积金贷款利 率下调，货币政策支持行业止跌回 稳 》 2025-05-07 东吴证券研究所 1 / 17 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 投资要点 ◼ 上周（2025.5.12-2025.5.16）：上周房地产板块（中信）涨跌幅-0.5%,同期 沪深 300、万得全 A 指数涨跌幅分别为 1.1%、0.7%，超额收益分别为- 1.6%、-1.2%。29 个中信行业板块中房地产位列第 25。 ◼ （1）新房市场：上周 36 城新房成交面积 205.1 万方，环比+29.6%，同 比-12.5%。2025 年 5 月 1 日至 5 月 16 日累计成交 381.4 万方，同比- 2.4%。今年截至 5 月 16 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Feihe (06186.HK) for the first time [1]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading domestic infant formula producer, with a significant turnaround in performance expected in 2024 due to channel reforms and a focus on high-end products [8]. - The company has a strong cash position and plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to 76% in 2024, highlighting its commitment to shareholder returns [8]. - The infant formula industry is anticipated to rebound, driven by a recovery in birth rates and a sustained trend towards premiumization [8]. Summary by Sections 1. High Dividend and Performance Turnaround - China Feihe is one of the earliest milk powder companies in China, focusing on infant formula and maintaining a leading market share [14]. - The company has experienced a significant decline in performance from 2021 to 2023 but is expected to show improvements in 2024, with revenue and net profit projected to grow by 6.2% and 5.3% respectively [20][19]. - The company’s dividend payout ratio has increased from 40.2% in 2019 to 76% in 2024, indicating a strong focus on returning value to shareholders [32]. 2. Strategic Focus on Premium Products and Channel Management - The company has shifted its focus to high-end products, with the ultra-premium "Xing Fei Fan" series accounting for 75% of its infant formula revenue in 2024, up from 22% in 2016 [8][36]. - Marketing strategies include high-profile promotions and enhanced consumer engagement, leading to a strong brand presence in the market [49]. - The company has improved its channel management, particularly in the maternal and infant sectors, and has expanded its online presence post-pandemic [8]. 3. Industry Demand Recovery and Market Position - The infant formula market in China is expected to see a marginal recovery, with a projected decline of only 1.2% in 2025, influenced by a rebound in birth rates [8]. - China Feihe holds a 17.5% market share in the infant formula sector, indicating room for growth compared to international competitors [8]. - The company is enhancing its channel control and product offerings, particularly with the "Xing Fei Fan" series, which is expected to drive revenue growth and improve profit margins [8]. 4. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for China Feihe are projected at 221.7 billion, 236.3 billion, and 251.7 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 38.7 billion, 43.0 billion, and 47.3 billion yuan [1]. - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is expected to decrease from 13x in 2025 to 10x in 2027, indicating a potentially undervalued stock compared to peers [8].

Investment Rating - The report recommends investment in the shipbuilding sector, specifically highlighting companies such as China Shipbuilding, China Heavy Industry, China Ship Defense, China Power, and others as key players in the industry [2][4]. Core Insights - The shipbuilding sector is experiencing robust growth with a revenue of 210.3 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 12% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 7.2 billion yuan, which is a 103% increase compared to the previous year [3][13]. - The order backlog remains strong, with a significant increase in high-value orders, indicating a positive outlook for revenue and profit margin recovery in the coming years [27][40]. - The global shipbuilding market is characterized by a supply-demand gap, with a hand-held order coverage of 3.8 years, which is at a historical high, while the proportion of hand-held orders in total capacity is at a historical low of 12% [52][56]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Growth - In 2024, the shipbuilding sector achieved a revenue of 210.3 billion yuan, a 12% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 7.2 billion yuan, reflecting a 103% growth [3][13]. - The first quarter of 2025 continued this trend with a revenue of 45.1 billion yuan, also up 12% year-on-year, indicating sustained growth [7][13]. Order Backlog and Market Dynamics - As of Q1 2025, the global shipbuilding order backlog reached 381 million deadweight tons, a 2% increase from the end of 2024, with expectations for a delivery volume of 97.28 million deadweight tons in 2025, representing a 9% increase [52][47]. - The report notes that the ship price index remains high, with a slight decrease of 1% in Q1 2025, indicating a stable pricing environment despite fluctuations [40][36]. Competitive Landscape - The report highlights that despite challenges from U.S. sanctions, China's position as a global leader in shipbuilding remains unshaken, with a market share of approximately 54% in new orders as of Q1 2025 [71][80]. - The average age of the global fleet is increasing, leading to a projected demand for new vessels, with an estimated annual delivery requirement of about 110 million deadweight tons from 2025 to 2030, driven largely by the need to replace aging ships [59][60]. Future Outlook - The shipbuilding sector is expected to continue benefiting from high demand for bulk carriers, with a focus on high-value orders and improved profit margins as the industry recovers from previous downturns [27][4]. - The report anticipates that the transition to alternative energy vessels will accelerate, driven by stricter environmental regulations and the need for fleet modernization [60][61].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on leading companies with strong management and brand recognition in the testing service industry, particularly recommending companies like Huace Testing, Sutest, and Guangdian Measurement [6][13][44]. Core Viewpoints - The testing service sector is under pressure, with a focus on lean management and the expansion of emerging industries. The overall revenue for the sector in 2024 is projected to be 46.8 billion RMB, a decrease of 4% year-on-year, primarily due to macroeconomic slowdowns and ongoing policy impacts in the pharmaceutical and special industries [4][18]. - The sector's growth is closely tied to macroeconomic performance, with expectations for recovery in demand due to government debt relief and stimulus policies [5][75]. - The industry is experiencing a trend towards consolidation, with resources expected to concentrate among leading firms that possess brand, capital, and management advantages [5][70]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In 2024, the testing service sector achieved a revenue of 46.8 billion RMB, down 4% year-on-year. Excluding companies with high medical testing ratios, the sector's revenue was 25.8 billion RMB, showing a 4% increase year-on-year [4][18]. - The first quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 9 billion RMB, a 9% decline year-on-year, but excluding high medical testing companies, the revenue growth rate improved to 2% [4][18]. Profitability - The sector's net profit for 2024 is expected to be 1.8 billion RMB, a significant decline of 56% year-on-year, attributed to decreased revenue, rigid laboratory costs, and reduced government subsidies [25]. - Leading companies like Huace Testing and Guangdian Measurement showed resilience, with net profit growth rates of 1% and 77% respectively in 2024 [25][18]. Market Trends - The global testing service market is projected to reach approximately 2.3 trillion RMB in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 6% from 2021 to 2024. China's testing service industry has historically grown at about twice the GDP growth rate [5][58]. - The industry is characterized by a high degree of fragmentation, with small and weak players facing challenges in capital and management, leading to a trend towards consolidation [69][70]. Emerging Opportunities - New sectors such as semiconductors and low-altitude economy are developing rapidly, creating new demands for testing services that require significant capital and technical capabilities [6][70]. - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies in supporting the testing service industry, particularly through debt relief measures that could enhance demand recovery [75][86].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Feihe (06186.HK) for the first time [1]. Core Views - China Feihe is positioned as a leading domestic infant formula brand, with a significant turning point in performance expected in 2024 due to channel reforms and a focus on high-end products [8]. - The company has a strong cash position and plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to 76% in 2024, highlighting its commitment to shareholder returns [8]. - The infant formula industry is anticipated to rebound, with a sustained trend towards high-end products, benefiting China Feihe's strategic focus [8]. Summary by Sections 1. High Dividend and Performance Turning Point - China Feihe is one of the earliest milk powder companies in China, focusing on infant formula and maintaining the top market share [14]. - The company has experienced a significant decline in performance from 2021 to 2023 but is expected to show improvements in 2024, with revenue and net profit projected to grow by 6.2% and 5.3% respectively [20][19]. 2. Strategic Focus on High-End Products - The company has shifted its focus to high-end infant formula products, with the ultra-high-end product line, Star Flying, increasing its revenue share from 22% in 2016 to 75% in 2024 [8][36]. - China Feihe has implemented a robust marketing strategy, achieving the highest brand recognition in the infant formula sector in China [49]. 3. Industry Demand and Market Position - The infant formula market in China is expected to see a marginal recovery, driven by a rebound in birth rates and supportive policies [8]. - China Feihe holds a market share of 17.5% in the infant formula sector, with potential for further growth compared to international competitors [8]. 4. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for China Feihe are set at 221.7 billion, 236.3 billion, and 251.7 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 38.7 billion, 43.0 billion, and 47.3 billion yuan [1]. - The company is currently undervalued compared to peers, with a projected P/E ratio decreasing from 13x in 2025 to 10x in 2027 [8].

Group 1: M&A Activity Overview - From May 12 to May 18, there were a total of 86 M&A events involving listed companies, with 33 classified as significant M&A transactions[8] - Out of the total M&A events, 19 were completed, including 1 significant M&A transaction[8] Group 2: Policy Updates - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) revised the "Management Measures for Major Asset Restructuring of Listed Companies," emphasizing a phased payment mechanism for restructuring shares and simplifying the review process[6] - The new rules allow for a 48-month validity period for registration decisions on phased share issuances for asset purchases[21] Group 3: Encouragement for Private Equity - The revised measures encourage private equity funds to participate in M&A activities, with a reduction in lock-up periods for certain transactions[21] - For private equity funds with a 48-month investment period, the lock-up period for third-party transactions is reduced from 12 months to 6 months[21] Group 4: Market Performance - During the week of May 12 to May 18, the restructuring index outperformed the Wind All A index by 1.19%[16] - The rolling 20-day return difference between the restructuring index and the Wind All A index remained near the zero axis, indicating stable performance[16] Group 5: Failed M&A Events - There were 5 failed M&A events during the week, involving companies such as Xinkeng Intelligent and Aisen Co., with total transaction values including 600,000 CNY for Huafeng Chemical's failed acquisition[13]

Group 1: Consumption Patterns - The age structure of consumer spending in China shows an inverted U-shape, peaking at ages 30-40, followed by a decline[7] - Major consumption expenditures, such as marriage (30.2 years), housing (33.3 years), and car purchases (30.5 years), predominantly occur between ages 30-40[8] - Income peaks between ages 25-45, aligning with the highest consumption levels during the same age range[12] Group 2: Demographic Impact on Consumption - In 2022, individuals aged 20-39 accounted for 26.7% of the total population but contributed 29.1% of total consumption, making them the largest consumer group[4] - From 2010-2018, the 20-39 age group contributed 30.3% to consumption growth, but from 2018-2022, they became the main reason for a 44% decline in consumption growth[25] - The youth unemployment rate, particularly among those aged 16-24, reached 19.9% in 2022, correlating with decreased consumption among younger demographics[24] Group 3: Future Consumption Trends - The consumption peak is expected to shift rightward, with the 40-49 age group projected to increase from 13.8% to 15.9% of the population by 2030, potentially aligning with consumption peaks[58] - If the population peak and consumption peak overlap, the growth rate of total consumption from 2025-2035 may exceed that of 2020-2025[58] - The overall consumption tendency is anticipated to rise, with projections indicating an increase from 65% in 2020 to 81.6% by 2035[62]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the results of the US-China talks exceeded expectations, with significant tariff reductions announced. China's tariff on US goods will decrease from 125% to 10%, while the US will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for a period of 90 days, which has positively impacted market sentiment [2][3] - The report emphasizes the return of the technology narrative, particularly with the US and Saudi Arabia reaching an AI agreement, which includes a $200 billion investment in AI data centers and infrastructure in the US. Additionally, the lifting of AI chip export restrictions by the Trump administration is noted [2][3] - Inflationary pressures are easing, with the US April CPI falling to 2.3%, below market expectations, and the PPI also showing a significant decrease to 2.4%. This has led to increased expectations for interest rate cuts [3][4] Group 2 - The report indicates that the US stock market is expected to experience volatility in the short term due to unresolved issues such as the downgrade of the US sovereign rating and ongoing geopolitical risks. However, a potential turning point for the market may occur in Q3, driven by strong economic fundamentals and corporate earnings resilience [4][6] - The Hong Kong stock market is showing signs of recovery, with the Hang Seng Index rising for five consecutive weeks, supported by positive outcomes from US-China negotiations. The report maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for the Hong Kong market, expecting continued fluctuations [4][6] - The report notes that global stock ETFs saw a net inflow of $29 billion, with significant inflows into the technology sector, while the energy sector experienced the largest outflows. This trend reflects a shift in investor sentiment towards growth sectors [6][28]

证券研究报告·行业点评报告·工程机械 工程机械行业点评报告 4 月销量点评：4 月挖机销量同比+18%，工 程机械行业有望迎来国内外共振【勘误版】 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 4 月挖机内销同比+18%，继续保持高景气增长 2025 年 4 月挖掘机销量 22142 台，同比+18%；装载机销量 11653 台，同 比+19%。其中国内 4 月销售挖掘机 12547 台，同比+16%，装载机内销 7191 台，同比增长 35%，继续保持高景气增长。2025 年 1-4 月挖掘机累计内销 达 49109 台，同比+32%，我们判断国内挖机销量持续超预期主要系：①存 量需求更新替换：上一轮挖机上行周期为 2015-2023 年，按照挖机平均 8- 10 年计算，近两年为存量需求集中更换新机节点；②资金端好转：国内下 游资金端从 2024Q4 开始好转，对存量及新增项目均有支撑作用；③农村 需求持续高景气：机器替人+政策支持，小挖需求持续高增。展望后续，我 们预计后续可以期待一系列内需提振的政策或者补贴出台，继续刺激内需 向上。 ◼ 出口温和复苏，中美贸易关系 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is actively responding to industry adjustments by transforming its strategies, focusing on nurturing enterprise customer structures and launching new products in the mid-to-high price range to create incremental growth [8] - The company aims to maintain price stability for existing products while introducing high-quality new products priced between 500-600 RMB to attract consumers [8] - The company is implementing a dual-driven strategy for national expansion and price range diversification, with a focus on experiential marketing to drive steady revenue growth [8] - The financial forecasts for the company indicate a stable performance in 2025, with slight adjustments to the non-IFRS net profit predictions for 2025-2027 [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is 7,060 million RMB, with a projected growth of 20.56% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023A is 2,327 million RMB, showing a significant increase of 125.96% year-on-year [1] - Non-IFRS net profit for 2023A is 1,623 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 35.52% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023A is 0.69 RMB, with a projected P/E ratio of 9.03 [1] - The company expects to achieve a non-IFRS net profit of 1,431 million RMB in 2025E, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 14.69 [1]