1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The participation of industrial entities in the science - innovation bond market is significantly higher than that of urban investment entities. The issuance quantity and scale of industrial entities are much higher, mainly due to the low correlation between the main business of urban investment entities and scientific - innovation attributes and the restrictions on new bond issuance during the debt - resolution policy implementation [3][9]. - The fundraising purpose of science - innovation bonds issued by urban investment entities is mainly to repay interest - bearing debts. Since the implementation of the debt - resolution policy, the fundraising purposes include replacing self - raised funds for bond repayment, equity investment, or fund pre - investment, replacing investment in the scientific - innovation field, and repaying interest - bearing debts, with the latter being the most common [3][23]. - Creditworthiness, high marketization, and high compliance with the "335 indicators" may be the core characteristics for urban investment entities to issue science - innovation bonds. Urban investment platforms with high - quality qualifications, appropriate business areas, and relatively low dependence on local governments in key financial data are more likely to issue such bonds [1][33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Entities' Dominance in the Science - Innovation Bond Market - As of April 30, 2025, industrial entities dominate the science - innovation bond issuance in China. From October 2023 to April 2025, among 1,805 science - innovation bonds with a total issuance scale of 1.8 trillion yuan, urban investment entities issued only 40 bonds, accounting for 2.22% of the total quantity and 2.61% of the total scale [9]. - Urban investment entities have lower participation. Their business is mainly public - welfare, with limited projects meeting the issuance criteria, and new bond issuance is restricted by policies [10]. - When distinguishing between science - innovation notes and science - innovation corporate bonds, urban investment entities prefer science - innovation corporate bonds. Among 931 science - innovation notes issued during the observation period, only 4 were issued by urban investment entities (less than 1%), while among 874 science - innovation corporate bonds, 36 were issued by them (3.87%) [11]. 3.2 Fundraising Purposes of Science - Innovation Bonds Issued by Urban Investment Entities - From October 2023 to April 2025, among 40 science - innovation bonds issued by urban investment entities, 11 bonds (total scale of 150 billion yuan) were for replacing self - raised funds for bond repayment, equity investment, or fund pre - investment; 5 bonds (total scale of 42 billion yuan) were for replacing investment in the scientific - innovation field; 24 bonds (total scale of 277.02 billion yuan) were for repaying interest - bearing debts [23][24]. - The second type of fundraising purpose has a stronger scientific - innovation attribute, while the third type has a weaker one [24]. 3.3 Common Characteristics of Urban Investment Platforms Issuing Science - Innovation Bonds - **Platform Qualifications**: The 14 urban investment platforms that have issued science - innovation bonds since October 2023 generally have high external ratings, mostly AAA. Provincial and municipal - level platforms are in the majority, and district - county - level platforms come from strong areas, showing good creditworthiness [1][77]. - **Business Areas**: Their main businesses revolve around industrial investment, public utilities, and transportation construction and operation, with both policy - orientation and marketization, and are related to regional development strategies or scientific - innovation needs [1][77]. - **Key Financial Data**: None of the 14 platforms fully meet the "335 indicators", but most meet at least one. Platforms with lower dependence on local government回款 or more independent profitability are more likely to issue science - innovation bonds [1][77].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [4][43] Core Insights - The company achieved revenue of 1800.2 billion RMB in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates of 1756.0 billion RMB [2][14] - Non-IFRS net profit reached 613.3 billion RMB, up 22.0% year-on-year, also surpassing Bloomberg consensus of 596.8 billion RMB [2][14] - AI is significantly contributing to the gaming and advertising sectors, enhancing product differentiation and user engagement [3][24] Revenue and Profitability - Total revenue is projected to grow from 609,015 million RMB in 2023 to 854,621 million RMB in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.18% [4] - Non-IFRS net profit is expected to increase from 157,688 million RMB in 2023 to 298,384 million RMB in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [4] - The company’s overall gross margin improved to 56% in Q1 2025, driven by growth in high-margin revenue sources such as domestic games and advertising [33][36] Business Segments Performance - The gaming segment reported revenue of 595 billion RMB in Q1 2025, a 23.7% increase year-on-year, with strong performance in both domestic and international markets [20][21] - Social network revenue rose to 326 billion RMB, up 6.9% year-on-year, supported by growth in mobile game virtual goods and paid memberships [22] - Advertising revenue reached 319 billion RMB, a 20.4% increase year-on-year, benefiting from enhanced user engagement and AI-driven optimizations [24] - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue was 549 billion RMB, a 5.0% increase year-on-year, although slightly below expectations [28] Future Outlook - The report forecasts adjusted net profits of 2441 billion RMB, 2693 billion RMB, and 2984 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 18, 16, and 14 times [4][43] - The company is expected to maintain strong business barriers and continue to grow its ecosystem, including video accounts, mini-programs, and fintech services [4][43]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the utility sector [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing consultation on the detailed rules of Document No. 136 in Guangdong, which sets a cap on the incremental mechanism electricity volume at 90%. Different types of renewable energy will be auctioned separately, with the first auction scheduled for mid-2025 [4]. - China Securities Regulatory Commission has approved Huadian New Energy's IPO application, aiming to raise 18 billion yuan for renewable energy projects [4]. - The report tracks key industry data, including a 3% year-on-year decrease in electricity purchase prices in May 2025, a 2.5% increase in total electricity consumption in the first quarter of 2025, and a 0.3% decrease in total power generation during the same period [4][39][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW utility index increased by 0.08% from May 12 to May 16, 2025, with notable gains in solar and hydropower sectors [9]. - The top-performing stocks included Jingyuntong (+34.3%) and Hongtong Gas (+22.0%), while the worst performers were Mindong Power (-7.0%) and Huadian Energy (-7.8%) [10]. 2. Electricity Sector Tracking 2.1. Electricity Consumption - Total electricity consumption in Q1 2025 reached 2.38 trillion kWh, a 2.5% year-on-year increase, with growth in all sectors [14]. 2.2. Power Generation - Total power generation in Q1 2025 was 2.27 trillion kWh, down 0.3% year-on-year, with declines in thermal power and increases in hydropower, nuclear, wind, and solar [22]. 2.3. Electricity Prices - The average electricity purchase price in May 2025 was 394 yuan/MWh, a 3% decrease year-on-year [39]. 2.4. Thermal Power - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 614 yuan/ton, down 28.6% year-on-year [43]. 2.5. Hydropower - The water level at the Three Gorges Reservoir was normal, with inflow and outflow decreasing by 21.3% and 27.6% year-on-year, respectively [51]. 2.6. Nuclear Power - In 2024, 11 nuclear units were approved, indicating a positive growth trajectory for the sector [22]. 2.7. Green Energy - The report emphasizes the recovery of asset quality in green energy, with a focus on companies like Longjing Environmental Protection [4]. 3. Important Announcements - The report includes significant announcements regarding the approval of IPOs and regulatory changes affecting the utility sector [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the utility sector [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing consultation regarding the detailed implementation of Document No. 136 in Guangdong, which includes a bidding mechanism for new energy projects with a maximum electricity scale of 90% [4]. - China Securities Regulatory Commission has approved Huadian New Energy's IPO application, aiming to raise 18 billion yuan for renewable energy projects [4]. - The report tracks key industry data, including a 3% year-on-year decrease in electricity purchase prices and a 2.5% increase in total electricity consumption in the first quarter of 2025 [4][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW utility index increased by 0.08% from May 12 to May 16, 2025, with notable performances in solar and hydropower sectors [9]. - The top five gainers included Jingyuntong (+34.3%) and Hongtong Gas (+22.0%), while the biggest losers were Mindong Power (-7.0%) and Huadian Energy (-7.8%) [10]. 2. Electricity Sector Tracking 2.1. Electricity Consumption - Total electricity consumption in Q1 2025 reached 2.38 trillion kWh, a 2.5% year-on-year increase, with growth in all sectors [14]. 2.2. Power Generation - Cumulative power generation in Q1 2025 was 2.27 trillion kWh, down 0.3% year-on-year, with declines in thermal power generation [22]. 2.3. Electricity Prices - The average electricity purchase price in May 2025 was 394 yuan/MWh, down 3% year-on-year [39]. 2.4. Thermal Power - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 614 yuan/ton, down 28.6% year-on-year [43]. 2.5. Hydropower - The water level at the Three Gorges Reservoir was 156.81 meters, with inflow and outflow rates down 21.3% and 27.6% year-on-year, respectively [51]. 2.6. Nuclear Power - In 2024, 11 nuclear units were approved, indicating a positive growth trajectory for the sector [22]. 2.7. Green Energy - Wind and solar power installations saw a year-on-year increase of 30.5% and a decrease of 5.7%, respectively, in Q1 2025 [4]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Focus on investment opportunities in hydropower and thermal power during peak summer demand [4]. - Recommended stocks include Jiangsu Power, Huadian International, and China Nuclear Power [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [4] Core Views - The company has exceeded revenue and profit expectations, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching 1800.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 1756.0 billion yuan. Non-IFRS net profit was 613.3 billion yuan, up 22.0% year-on-year, also exceeding expectations [2][14] - AI is making substantial contributions to the gaming and advertising industries, enhancing product differentiation and driving revenue growth [3][4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 1800.2 billion yuan, up 12.9% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [2][14] - Non-IFRS net profit for Q1 2025 was 613.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.0%, also above consensus estimates [2][14] Gaming Business - Online gaming revenue reached 595 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 23.7% year-on-year increase, surpassing expectations [20] - Domestic gaming revenue was 429 billion yuan, up 24.3% year-on-year, while international gaming revenue was 166 billion yuan, up 22.1% year-on-year [21] Advertising Revenue - Advertising revenue for Q1 2025 was 319 billion yuan, a 20.4% year-on-year increase, exceeding expectations [24] - The growth in advertising revenue is attributed to increased user engagement, AI upgrades, and optimization of the WeChat ecosystem [24] Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue was 549 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 5.0% year-on-year increase, slightly below expectations [28] - The growth in financial technology is driven by consumer loan services and wealth management services [28] Profitability Metrics - Overall gross margin for Q1 2025 was 56%, up 3 percentage points year-on-year, driven by high-margin revenue sources [33] - The gross margin for value-added services was 60%, reflecting growth in both domestic and international gaming revenue [33] Future Earnings Forecast - The report forecasts adjusted net profits of 2441 billion yuan, 2693 billion yuan, and 2984 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 18, 16, and 14 times [4][43]

Market Overview - A-shares have entered a new phase with external disturbances easing, showing support below and awaiting catalysts above[2] - The market is expected to exhibit a volatile trend in the short term, with economic growth remaining stable despite marginal declines in production, consumption, and investment growth rates[2] - In April, the GDP growth rate was 1% YoY, while the CPI and PPI showed deflationary trends at -0.1% and -2.7% respectively[6] Investment Strategy - The recommended investment strategy is a "barbell" approach focusing on "large-cap + technology growth" sectors[2] - Suggested ETFs include large-cap indices like the CSI 300 and defensive dividend ETFs, which are expected to benefit from increased public fund allocations[3] - Key sectors for investment include self-sufficiency in technology, AI, and robotics, with a focus on ETFs that track these themes[2] ETF Recommendations - The following ETFs are highlighted for investment: - Huaxia CSI 50 ETF with a scale of 1649.7 million RMB[4] - Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF with a scale of 3800.7 million RMB[4] - E Fund CSI Artificial Intelligence ETF with a scale of 163.2 million RMB[4] - Guotai CSI Semiconductor Materials and Equipment ETF with a scale of 22.8 million RMB[4] Economic Indicators - The total social financing increased by 11,591 million RMB in April, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.7%[6] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 4.0%, while real estate development investment declined by 10.3% YoY[6] Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected economic recovery, policy implementation delays, geopolitical risks, and uncertainties surrounding overseas interest rate cuts and trade policies[4]

Macro Strategy - The report suggests that the overlap of population peak and consumption peak from 2025 to 2035 may lead to more optimistic growth in total consumption compared to 2020-2025, as the proportion of the population aged 40-49 is expected to increase from 13.8% to 15.9% [1] Fixed Income - The report indicates that the bond market is experiencing a slight upward trend in yields due to the recent reserve requirement ratio cut, with expectations for the DR007 to stabilize around 1.4%-1.5% [3][4] - The issuance of secondary capital bonds totaled 400 billion yuan, with a trading volume of approximately 242.4 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 53.8 billion yuan from the previous week [4] - Green bond issuance reached 10 bonds with a total scale of approximately 10.3 billion yuan, an increase of 2.5 billion yuan from the previous week [5] Real Estate - New housing transaction area increased month-on-month, while second-hand housing transactions also saw a rise, indicating a potential recovery in the real estate market [6] - The report recommends several companies in real estate development, property management, and real estate brokerage, including China Resources Land, Poly Developments, and Beike [6] Engineering Machinery - The report highlights a year-on-year increase of 18% in excavator sales for April, indicating a positive outlook for the engineering machinery industry [7] Gas Industry - The report anticipates a relaxed supply situation for gas companies, with a focus on cost optimization and price mechanism adjustments, recommending companies like Xin'ao Energy and China Gas [9] Petrochemical Industry - The report notes a significant increase in polyester prices, with POY, FDY, and DTY prices rising by 5.5%, 5.9%, and 3.9% respectively, indicating strong demand in the petrochemical sector [10] Retail Industry - The report emphasizes the strong performance of domestic brands during the 618 shopping festival, recommending companies like Ruya Chen and Juzhi Biological [11] Construction Materials - The report indicates a stable economic outlook with improved supply dynamics in the construction materials sector, recommending companies like China Communications Construction and China Railway Construction [12][18] Automotive Industry - The report maintains a positive outlook for the automotive sector, highlighting a 6.5% month-on-month increase in passenger car sales, with a focus on AI and robotics as key growth drivers [19] Pharmaceutical Industry - The report identifies a fast track for the development of three-antibody drugs, recommending companies like Zai Lab and 3SBio for investment [21][22] Electronic Industry - The report discusses the growing demand for AI infrastructure, particularly in the Middle East, and suggests focusing on domestic hardware suppliers for AI applications [23] Non-Banking Financial Industry - The report highlights the low average valuation in the non-banking financial sector, recommending companies like New China Life Insurance and CITIC Securities for investment [25]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·房地产 房地产行业跟踪周报 新房二手房成交面积环比改善，持续推进城市 更新 增持（维持） 2025 年 05 月 19 日 证券分析师 房诚琦 执业证书：S0600522100002 fangcq@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -26% -21% -16% -11% -6% -1% 4% 9% 14% 19% 2024/5/20 2024/9/18 2025/1/17 2025/5/18 房地产 沪深300 相关研究 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 投资要点 ◼ 上周（2025.5.12-2025.5.16）：上周房地产板块（中信）涨跌幅-0.5%,同期 沪深 300、万得全 A 指数涨跌幅分别为 1.1%、0.7%，超额收益分别为- 1.6%、-1.2%。29 个中信行业板块中房地产位列第 25。 ◼ （1）新房市场：上周 36 城新房成交面积 205.1 万方，环比+29.6%，同 比-12.5%。2025 年 5 月 1 日至 5 月 16 日累计成交 381.4 万方，同比- 2.4%。今年截至 5 月 16 日累计成交 3684.7 万方， ...

Market Outlook and ETF Strategy - The current phase of the A-share market indicates a stabilization of external disturbances, with support on the downside and potential catalysts on the upside, leading to an expected short-term oscillating trend [2] - Following the Geneva talks between China and the US, tariff trade risks have eased, and the index has returned to pre-tariff levels, showcasing the A-share market's resilience against global risks [2] - Despite a recent decline in market volume and rapid sector rotation, the A-share market is expected to maintain a primary oscillating trend due to the lack of strong catalysts for further upward movement [2] - The recommended investment strategy is a "barbell" approach, focusing on large-cap stocks and technology growth sectors, with a dual emphasis on public fund allocation and defensive strategies [2] Industry and Thematic Trends - Currently, the market lacks a clear mainline, with dispersed hotspots and no single sector attracting significant monthly trading consensus [2] - In the medium term, under the "broad monetary + weak dollar" framework, technology growth styles are expected to perform well, particularly in areas such as self-sufficiency, AI, and robotics [2] - The report suggests focusing on two main directions for industry/theme ETF allocations: self-sufficiency and industry trends, particularly in semiconductor equipment and high-end manufacturing ETFs [2][3] ETF Recommendations - The report lists specific ETFs for investment, including: - Large-cap ETFs such as the Huaxia SSE 50 ETF (规模: 1649.7 million) and the Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF (规模: 3800.7 million) [4] - Dividend-focused ETFs like the CCB CSI 300 Dividend ETF (规模: 2.8 million) and the Invesco CSI 100 Low Volatility Dividend ETF (规模: 62.1 million) [4] - Thematic ETFs including the Huaxia National Semiconductor Equipment ETF (规模: 22.8 million) and the E Fund National Robotics Industry ETF (规模: 13.9 million) [4][13]

Macro Strategy - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the "loan off-season" and emphasizes the observation of the effects of monetary easing, with May to June being a critical period for assessing the impact of incremental policies [1][6][7] - Financial data from April shows an increase in social financing scale, with new social financing of 16.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.61 trillion yuan, and a recovery in the growth rate of social financing stock to 8.7% [6][7] - The report highlights that the weighted average interest rate for new loans in April was approximately 3.2%, which is about 50 basis points lower than the same period last year, indicating a continued low-interest environment [6][7] Fixed Income - The report discusses the current state of China's sci-tech bond market, noting that it is in its early development stage compared to overseas markets, characterized by a smaller market size, shorter issuance periods, and higher ratings [2][8] - It forecasts that as the sci-tech bond market matures, there will be rapid growth in market size and a diversification of issuance entities, particularly from high-tech industries, which will better match the long R&D cycles of innovative enterprises [2][11] Industry Analysis - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing a significant upturn, with excavator sales in April increasing by 18% year-on-year, indicating a strong growth trend [3][12] - The report notes that domestic excavator sales reached 49,109 units in the first four months of 2025, a 32% increase year-on-year, driven by factors such as the replacement of aging equipment and improved funding conditions [12][13] - It recommends several companies in the engineering machinery sector, including Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, and LiuGong, as they are expected to benefit from the ongoing upcycle in the industry [3][12] Company Recommendations - The report highlights Beike-W (02423.HK) as a leading player in the domestic real estate brokerage industry, with Q1 2025 revenue of 23.3 billion yuan, a 42.4% year-on-year increase, and adjusted net profit slightly exceeding expectations [4][14] - The company is projected to see continued growth in its second-hand housing business, driven by an increase in transaction volume and market coverage [4][15] - The report maintains profit forecasts for Beike-W for 2025-2027, with adjusted net profits of 9.7 billion, 11.62 billion, and 13.62 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a positive outlook for the company's performance [4][15]