2025 年 12 月 14 日 金融工程研究团队 魏建榕（首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790519120001 苏俊豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522020001 胡亮勇（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522030001 王志豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522070003 盛少成（分析师） 证书编号：S0790523060003 蒋 韬（分析师） 证书编号：S0790525070001 相关研究报告 《基于港交所 CCASS 数据的港股投 资策略》-20250914 《国庆前后的港股市场资金流变化》 -2024.10.18 《公募港股投资变化及港股通优选组 合构建》-2024.7.15 《港股优选：技术面、资金面、基本 面》-2022.3.22 《对近期北向持续撤离，南下持续抄 底的几点思考》-2022.3.15 傅开波（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090003 高 鹏（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090002 基于杠反 ETF 份额变化的港股择时策略 ——开源量化评论（115） 魏建榕（分析师） 傅开波（分析师） weijianrong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S07905 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The non-bank financial index increased by 0.81%, outperforming the CSI 300 index which decreased by 0.08%. The brokerage and insurance sectors continue to show good trends, with valuations at low levels and relatively stagnant performance throughout the year. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are beneficial for the equity market, directly favoring the profitability of securities firms' overseas businesses due to lower liability costs and asset expansion [4][5] - The average daily trading volume of stock funds reached 2.39 trillion, a 15.1% increase month-on-month, indicating a recovery in trading activity. The cumulative average daily trading volume for the year is 2.05 trillion, a 69.5% year-on-year increase [5] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission's recent positive stance signals a potential "policy easing period" for the industry, which may lead to an increase in leverage limits and support for the profitability of the securities industry. The report recommends focusing on strategic opportunities in undervalued leading companies in the brokerage and insurance sectors [5][6] Summary by Sections Brokerage Sector - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are favorable for the overseas business of brokerages, and new regulations are set to standardize fund sales practices. The report highlights three main lines of recommended stocks: Huatai Securities, Guotai Junan, and CICC for their advantages in overseas and institutional business; GF Securities and Dongfang Securities for their wealth management strengths; and Guosen Securities for its retail advantages [5][6][7] Insurance Sector - The liability side is expected to achieve a "good start," with the transformation of dividend insurance continuing to progress. The demand for "savings" from residents is likely to persist, and the insurance distribution channel is expected to maintain high growth. On the asset side, stable long-term interest rates and a favorable equity market are expected to boost investment returns in the medium to long term [6][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the retail industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The Ministry of Commerce has set a positive tone for the retail industry, emphasizing the importance of quality and service-driven transformation. Retailers with strong supply chain advantages and the ability to adapt are expected to benefit [25][27] - Yonghui Supermarket is undergoing a significant transformation focused on product centralization, with 222 stores modified by the end of September 2025. The company has seen a recovery in same-store sales and is enhancing its product quality and differentiation [27][29] Industry Overview - The retail industry index closed at 2305.32 points, down 0.21% for the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell 0.34% [5][14] - The supermarket sector showed the highest increase among retail sub-sectors, with a weekly rise of 10.73% [17][20] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-quality companies in sectors benefiting from emotional consumption themes, including: - **Gold and Jewelry**: Recommend brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Hong Kee, which are expected to benefit from differentiated product offerings [6][29] - **Offline Retail**: Highlight companies like Yonghui Supermarket and Ai Ying Shi, which are adapting to market changes [6][29] - **Cosmetics**: Recommend domestic brands that emphasize emotional value and innovative safe ingredients, such as Maogeping and Proya [6][29] - **Medical Aesthetics**: Focus on differentiated product manufacturers and expanding medical chains, recommending companies like Aimeike and Kedi-B [6][29] Company-Specific Insights - **Yonghui Supermarket**: The company reported a revenue of 424.34 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, down 22.2% year-on-year, with a net loss of 7.10 billion yuan. The company is in a transformation phase aimed at quality retail [31][43] - **Chow Tai Fook**: The company achieved a revenue of 389.86 billion HKD for FY2026H1, down 1.1%, with a net profit of 25.34 billion HKD, up 0.1%. The company is optimizing its product structure and store quality [36][38] - **Chow Hong Kee**: The company reported a revenue of 62.37 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, up 28.4%, with a net profit of 3.17 billion yuan, up 0.3%. The company is expanding its franchise model and enhancing product differentiation [39][40]

通信 2025 年 12 月 14 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% 0% 24% 48% 72% 96% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 通信 沪深300 相关研究报告 《国内 AIDC 需求或加速回暖—行业 点评报告》-2025.12.9 《"H200 芯片或放开"下的投资机会 梳理—行业点评报告》-2025.12.9 《"AI+卫星"的共振—行业周报》- 2025.12.7 GPT5.2 发布， "AI+卫星"为核心主线 ——行业周报 | 蒋颖（分析师） | 陈光毅（联系人） | 雷星宇（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | jiangying@kysec.cn | chenguangyi@kysec.cn | leixingyu@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790523120003 | 证书编号：S0790124020006 | 证书编号：S0790124040002 | OpenAI 发布最新模型 GPT-5.2，赶超人类专家 12 月 11 日，GPT5.2 在 ChatGPT 上线并推出 Instant、Thinki ...

综合 2025 年 12 月 14 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -29% -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 综合 沪深300 相关研究报告 《谷歌 Gemini3 增益生态，存储有望 持续高景气—行业周报》-2025.12.7 《AI 需求持续验证，提升算力需求可 预见性—行业周报》-2025.11.23 《AI 需求可预见性愈发清晰，关注 Robotaxi 产 业 机 会 — 行业周报》 -2025.11.16 存储依然高景气，H200 有望获批对华出口 ——行业周报 | 初敏（分析师） | 张可（分析师） | 杨哲（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | | chumin@kysec.cn | zhangke1@kysec.cn | yangzhe@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522080008 | 证书编号：S0790523070001 | 证书编号：S0790524100001 | 电子：H200 有望获批对华出口，长期看好国产替代 2025 年 12 月 9 日美国总统特朗普宣布在确保美 ...

《九院中标 5 亿氚工厂项目，NIF 完 成第十次点火—可控核聚变行业周 报》-2025.12.7 《BEST 研究计划首次发布，美国启动 创世纪计划—可控核聚变行业周报》 -2025.11.30 电力 2025 年 12 月 13 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -14% -7% 0% 7% 14% 22% 29% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 电力 沪深300 相关研究报告 《电改加速深化，预期有望趋稳—电 力行业 2026 年度投资策略》 -2025.11.27 日本首份聚变供电协议签署，BEST 订单持续释放 ——行业周报 | 周磊（分析师） | 黄懿轩（联系人） | | --- | --- | | zhoulei1@kysec.cn | huangyixuan1@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790524090002 | 证书编号：S0790125070014 | 板块回顾：全部细分环节上涨，个股涨多跌少 本周（20251208-20251212）可控核聚变板块下，个股涨多跌少。具体来看，涨 幅前五标的分别为爱科赛博（+34.3%）、永鼎股份（+2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The key policy goal in 2026 is likely price recovery, similar to the situation in 2016 when the importance of GDP growth rate decreased and price recovery was crucial [3][4]. - In 2026, there are two possibilities for the real - estate market. One is a market - based bottoming of housing prices after they fall back to near 2015 levels, and the other is a policy - oriented bottoming if prices fall below 2015 levels [6]. - In 2026, price recovery is highly likely. Depending on the housing price situation, there are three scenarios for the market, all involving rising long - term bond yields and stock market increases [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Policy Goals - Price recovery is likely an important policy goal in 2026, as indicated by multiple mentions of price - related content in the Central Economic Work Conference. The conference addressed issues such as supply - demand imbalance, expansion of domestic demand, fiscal and monetary policies, competition regulation, and environmental protection [3]. - The logic in 2026 may be similar to that in 2016, with a decline in the importance of GDP growth rate and price recovery being the key. In 2016, the actual GDP growth rate decreased by 0.2% compared to 2015, while the nominal GDP growth rate increased by over 1%, and price recovery improved corporate profits and the stock market [4]. Policy Measures - The policy focus has shifted from reversing the downward price trend (2022 - 2024.9) to maintaining price stability (2025.12). The policy emphasizes maintaining overall policy intensity and making decisions based on the situation to hedge against downward pressure [5]. - Specific measures include maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, debt, and spending; using new policy - based financial tools; and the option of flexible use of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, which are not mandatory and depend on external shocks [5]. Real - Estate - The government's approach to real - estate risk has two stages: moral risk and systemic risk. Currently, the policy is at the moral risk stage, but may shift if housing prices continue to fall [6]. - In 2026, there are two possible scenarios for the real - estate market: a market - based bottoming of housing prices after falling back to near 2015 levels, or a policy - oriented bottoming if prices fall below 2015 levels [6]. Key Variables in 2026 - There is a high probability of price recovery in 2026, which will lead to three market scenarios: price recovery with falling housing prices, price recovery with market - based bottoming of housing prices, and price recovery with policy - based bottoming of housing prices, all resulting in rising long - term bond yields and stock market increases [7].

Group 1: Social Financing and Credit Growth - In November, the social financing scale increased by 24,885 billion yuan, exceeding the expected 20,191 billion yuan and significantly higher than the previous value of 8,161 billion yuan[3] - The growth of RMB loans was 3,900 billion yuan, below the expected 5,043 billion yuan and higher than the previous value of 2,200 billion yuan[3] - Corporate loans showed marginal recovery with an increase of 6,100 billion yuan, which is 3,600 billion yuan more than the same month last year[3] Group 2: Government Bonds and Fiscal Policy - Government bond financing in November reached 12,041 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1,048 billion yuan but a month-on-month increase of 7,189 billion yuan[3] - The issuance of special bonds was 4,922 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 2,048 billion yuan, indicating strong government support for social financing[3] - The net financing of general government bonds reached 6,108 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 4,563 billion yuan month-on-month[3] Group 3: Household and Corporate Loan Trends - Household loans decreased by 2,063 billion yuan in November, a year-on-year reduction of 4,763 billion yuan, but showed improvement compared to the previous month[3] - The short-term loans for households decreased by 1,788 billion yuan year-on-year, but the consumer loan data showed marginal improvement due to seasonal factors[3] - Corporate short-term loans increased by 1,000 billion yuan, indicating a shift from negative to positive growth year-on-year[3] Group 4: Monetary Supply and Deposit Trends - M1 growth rate fell by 1.3 percentage points to 4.9%, while M2 growth rate decreased to 8%[4] - Both household and corporate deposits continued to show year-on-year declines, with reductions of 1,200 billion yuan and 947 billion yuan respectively[4] - Fiscal deposits decreased by 1,900 billion yuan year-on-year, suggesting an increase in fiscal spending beyond seasonal expectations[4]

伐谋-中小盘信息更新 铁流股份（603926.SH） 设立子公司全面进军具身智能，深度合作哈特研究院 2025 年 12 月 12 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/12/12 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 15.99 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 19.11/7.72 | | 总市值(亿元) | 37.53 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 36.91 | | 总股本(亿股) | 2.35 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 2.31 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 125.81 | 中小盘研究团队 哈特研究院在机器人环境感知、智能控制等领域拥有扎实的学术底蕴与前沿的科 研能力，不仅承接过多项国家级重点研发计划项目，更构建了国家级博士后工作 站、国家工业机器人检验检测中心等高端科研平台。 公司具备领先的精密加工能力，账上现金充裕有望通过并购整合先进产业 公司主业以离合器为主，下游覆盖国内部分整车厂，产能规模及市场份额均处于 国内领先地位。2018 年通过收购德国 Geiger 进入高精密零部件领域，在新能源 车电机轴等方面具备领先的技术工艺。公司历史上通过多次并购实 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company maintains strategic determination, with pressure being released in an orderly manner. The core product, Guojiao, has kept its price relatively stable without pursuing excessively high growth, resulting in a relatively stable market order. Due to weak consumer demand, profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits of 13.04 billion (-9.0%), 13.30 billion (-11.9%), and 13.94 billion (-13.0%) respectively, showing year-on-year changes of -3.2%, +2.0%, and +4.8%. The current stock price corresponds to valuations of 13.7, 13.4, and 12.8 times [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue growth for the first three quarters showed a sequential decline: +2% in Q1, -8% in Q2, and -10% in Q3, indicating a gradual release of pressure on the financial statements without drastic fluctuations [4] - The company’s revenue for 2025 is projected at 29.398 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 5.8% [8] - The gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 87% for the forecast period [10] Market Conditions - The worst period for white liquor demand may have passed, with marginal improvements becoming evident. Short-term demand has been negatively impacted by macroeconomic conditions and unexpected events, but fiscal stimulus policies are expected to enhance economic activity, leading to a slowdown in the decline of white liquor demand [5][6] - The market order for the company remains good, with stable pricing for Guojiao and acceptable profitability for distributors, attributed to the implementation of a strict logistics system since 2024 [6] Valuation Metrics - The expected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 13.7, 13.4, and 12.8 respectively, indicating a gradual decrease in valuation multiples [8][10] - The projected net profit margin for 2025 is 44.4%, with a slight increase to 45.1% in 2026 and 45.9% in 2027 [11]