Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the AI computing industry, driven by significant investments from major overseas companies, which is expected to boost the demand for related technologies and services [25][27][33] - The introduction of a national childcare subsidy program in China is anticipated to stimulate demand in the dairy sector, particularly in infant formula, as it aims to increase birth rates [43][44][45] - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the communication sector, particularly for Corning, which reported strong Q2 earnings and is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for AI-related technologies [24][25][26] Industry Analysis Communication Sector - Corning's Q2 2025 revenue reached $4.05 billion, a 12% year-on-year increase, with a notable 41% growth in its optical communications segment [24][25] - The company's "Scale-up" strategy is projected to significantly enhance its sales and profit margins by 2026, with expectations of a $10 billion market opportunity in data center interconnects by 2030 [26][27] Dairy Sector - The national childcare subsidy program is set to provide annual cash benefits of 3,600 yuan per child, which is expected to positively impact birth rates and subsequently increase demand for infant formula [43][44] - The report anticipates a recovery in the demand for infant formula in 2025, driven by the subsidy and a favorable demographic shift [45][46] AI Computing Industry - The integration of AI technologies is expected to create substantial market opportunities, particularly through platforms like NVIDIA's Omniverse, which facilitates collaboration and simulation across various industries [29][30][31] - The report identifies several investment opportunities within the AI computing supply chain, including optical modules and liquid cooling technologies, which are poised for growth as AI applications expand [27][33] Agricultural Sector - Haida Group reported a 12.5% increase in revenue for H1 2025, driven by strong sales in its feed business, particularly in the pig and poultry segments [60][61] - The company is also expanding its international market presence, with a 40% year-on-year increase in overseas feed sales [61][62] Real Estate and Property Management - South Property's diversified service model is expected to enhance profitability, with a projected net profit of 168 million yuan for 2025 [54][55] - The company is leveraging technology, such as cleaning robots, to improve service efficiency and reduce costs [58][59]

行 业 研 究 康宁 Q2 业绩表现亮眼，Scale-up 打开光通信成长空 2025 年 07 月 30 日 投资评级：看好（维持） ——行业点评报告 -17% 0% 17% 34% 50% 67% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 通信 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《Celestica 上调业绩指引，看好光通 信、液冷等板块估值提升—行业点评 报告》-2025.7.29 《谷歌上调资本开支，Qwen3 模型迎 更新，看好全球 AI 共振—行业周报》 -2025.7.27 "Scale-up"有望进一步打开光通信成长空间，重视光通信产业机遇 据康宁公告，2025Q2 企业网络销售额同比增长 81%，主要受"Scale-up"的推动， 超大规模客户正在打造更强的 AI 节点，新"Scale-up"机会（提升节点能力和 GPU 密度）预计是现有 20 亿美元业务的 2-3 倍规模；此外，在数据中心互联业 务方面，高带宽、低延迟连接需求上升，三家行业客户已采用新技术，预计到 2030 年成为 10 亿美元市场机会。整体来看，我们认为随着 AI 的不断迭代推进， 算力需求持续增加，算力通 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The company has maintained a strong growth momentum in H1 2025, with revenue reaching 10.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.37 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 37.2% [4][5] - The company plans to distribute a semi-annual dividend of 2.5 yuan per share for H1 2025, indicating confidence in its financial performance [4] - The growth in the electrolyte water segment remains robust, supporting the "Outperform" rating [4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 5.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.1%, with net profits of 1.395 billion yuan, up 30.8% [4][5] - The company forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 4.228 billion, 5.214 billion, and 5.745 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 8.13, 10.03, and 11.05 yuan [4][9] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 35.3, 28.6, and 26.0 for 2025-2027 [4][9] Product Performance - The company's energy drink segment saw a revenue increase of 22.0% year-on-year, while the "Bup Shui La" product line experienced a remarkable growth of 213.7% due to rapid expansion in distribution and product offerings [5] - Other beverage products also performed well, with a year-on-year increase of 65.2% [5] Regional Performance - Revenue growth varied by region, with significant increases in Guangdong (19.4%), East China (34.0%), and North China (74.1%) [5] Profitability Metrics - The sales net profit margin slightly decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 23.7% in Q2 2025, attributed to high base effects [6] - The gross profit margin also saw a minor decline of 0.35 percentage points, although the decrease in raw material prices is expected to positively impact margins [6] New Product Development - The company has matured its new product development model, with established products growing at 15%-20% and new products like juice tea performing well [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The integration of Aisino's self-developed digital twin platform with NVIDIA Omniverse aims to empower the domestic manufacturing sector's transition from "manufacturing" to "intelligent manufacturing" [4] - NVIDIA Omniverse is an open platform designed for virtual collaboration and real-time simulation, with significant market potential, already adopted by over 700 companies and more than 70,000 individual creators [5] - The expansion of Omniverse usage is expected to create three industry opportunities, particularly benefiting the simulation market, computational power, delivery, and enterprise sectors [6][7] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The report highlights the ongoing demand for computational power driven by sovereign AI and token consumption, indicating a sustained need for traditional AI targets [3] Company Focus - Aisino Technology is positioned to extend its delivery capabilities from large models and AI agents to AI platform delivery, with potential applications in various sectors including energy, finance, and manufacturing [7] - The report notes that Omniverse could enhance efficiency in downstream manufacturing, exemplified by Foxconn's production line layout cycle being shortened by 50% [8] Market Opportunities - The report emphasizes the potential for domestic simulation market demand to grow, with local alternatives like Songying Technology's ORCA system emerging to compete with Omniverse, offering localized and cost-effective solutions [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the biotechnology industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The global stock of multiple sclerosis (MS) patients is significant, with the market size exceeding $20 billion, primarily focused on relapsing forms of MS (RMS) [6][9] - BTK inhibitors are expected to fill the treatment gap in primary progressive MS (PPMS) and non-relapsing secondary progressive MS (nrSPMS) [7][9] - The anticipated release of clinical data for BTK inhibitors in the second half of 2025 is expected to enhance the attractiveness of the sector [9] Summary by Sections 1. Multiple Sclerosis Overview - MS is an immune-mediated inflammatory demyelinating disease of the central nervous system, characterized by "spatial" and "temporal" multiplicity [5][27] - The global and Chinese stock of MS patients is projected to reach 3.71 million and 60,000 respectively by 2030, with a CAGR of approximately 2.7% and 2.1% from 2025 to 2030 [19][22] 2. Market Size and Product Landscape - The global MS market is approximately $20 billion, with a focus on RMS treatments [6][40] - Existing products include monoclonal antibodies and oral therapies, with CD20 monoclonal antibodies expected to account for over 60% of sales by 2024 [6][46] 3. BTK Inhibitors and Clinical Development - BTK inhibitors are positioned to address unmet needs in the treatment of PPMS and nrSPMS, with several candidates in late-stage clinical trials [7][51] - Tolebrutinib and Fenebrutinib are expected to release pivotal clinical data in the second half of 2025, which could significantly impact their market potential [8][51] 4. Investment Recommendations - The ongoing clinical developments and the large patient base present significant investment opportunities in companies like 诺诚健华, 翰森制药, 云顶新耀, 恒瑞医药, and 百济神州-U [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown rapid growth in its feed business, with significant performance in overseas markets. The revenue for H1 2025 reached 58.831 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.50%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.639 billion yuan, up 24.16% year-on-year. The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 32.2 billion yuan, a 14.00% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.356 billion yuan, up 7.26% year-on-year. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2 yuan for every 10 shares, totaling 333 million yuan. Due to the better-than-expected sales growth in pig and poultry feed, the profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted upwards [1][5]. Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the feed business generated revenue of 47.139 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.02%, with a gross margin of 9.79%. The total feed sales reached 14.7 million tons, a growth of approximately 25% year-on-year. The external sales of poultry feed were 7.3 million tons, up 24% year-on-year, while pig feed external sales were 3.4 million tons, a 43% increase year-on-year. The external sales of aquatic feed reached 2.8 million tons, a 16% increase year-on-year. The overseas feed external sales increased by 40% year-on-year, indicating robust growth in established regions and active expansion into new areas [5][6]. Profitability and Growth Projections - The company's breeding business revenue for H1 2025 was 9.735 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.59%, with a gross margin of 20.26%. The animal health business generated revenue of 464 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0.35% year-on-year, while the seed business revenue was 770 million yuan, up 10% year-on-year. The company is focusing on building its breeding team capabilities and innovating its asset-light model, which has led to controllable risks and considerable profitability [6][9]. Earnings Forecast - The profit forecasts for the company are as follows: for 2025, 5.148 billion yuan; for 2026, 5.739 billion yuan; and for 2027, 6.172 billion yuan. The corresponding earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 3.09 yuan, 3.45 yuan, and 3.71 yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 17.7, 15.9, and 14.8 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1][7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that despite the current low level of PPI, there is potential for marginal improvement, which, combined with a loose liquidity environment, may accelerate valuation recovery [2][10][12] - The report identifies two leading signals for PPI's marginal recovery: the transmission from the credit side and the structural divergence between CRB and PPI, indicating a potential for price recovery [17][18] - The "anti-involution" policy has begun to influence PPI trading, with expectations for valuation recovery in cyclical consumer assets, supported by recent government initiatives [2][24] Group 2 - The report discusses the early stage of the "anti-involution" market, highlighting that supply-demand resonance is a core variable driving PPI elasticity and market dynamics [26] - It notes that the current market environment is characterized by a weak base cycle, with PPI showing a significant decline, particularly in the mining and raw materials sectors [10][11] - The report suggests that the stock market has stronger liquidity premium protection compared to the commodity market, with certain sectors already showing signs of trend recovery [38][44] Group 3 - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors benefiting from PPI marginal improvement expectations, including insurance, building materials, liquor, real estate, and chemicals [52] - The report highlights that the scope of the "anti-involution" policy has expanded beyond traditional cyclical sectors to include emerging manufacturing areas such as photovoltaics and lithium batteries, indicating mid-term potential [52][54] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the demand-side policies that could either support or hinder the sustainability of the current market recovery [36][35]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the potential for improvement in the demand for infant formula due to the recent national childcare subsidy policy, which is expected to stimulate birth rates and consumer confidence [5][6][7] - The report anticipates a recovery in the dairy industry, particularly in the infant formula segment, driven by policy support and demographic trends [8] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry is currently experiencing fluctuations, with a notable decline in the stock performance of the sector compared to the CSI 300 index [2] Policy Impact - The national childcare subsidy program, effective from January 1, 2025, will provide annual subsidies of 3,600 yuan per child for families with children under three years old, potentially benefiting over 20 million families [5][6] - This subsidy is seen as a crucial measure to enhance birth rates, especially in lower-tier cities, where the cost of raising children is significantly high [6] Market Demand - The demand for infant formula is expected to improve in 2025, supported by the new subsidy policy and a favorable demographic shift due to the upcoming Year of the Dragon [7] - The dairy industry is also exploring new growth avenues through deep processing and export opportunities, which could further stimulate demand [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the infant formula market, such as China Feihe, which is expected to benefit from product innovations and improved channel freshness [8] - Other recommended stocks include Yili Group and Mengniu Dairy, which are anticipated to see profitability recovery as raw milk prices rebound [8]

Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of Celestica, which raised its annual revenue guidance to $11.55 billion, up from the previous $10.85 billion, driven by robust demand from major clients [12][13] - The AI PCB industry is experiencing a significant expansion due to high demand for advanced AI servers, leading to increased capital expenditures and a tight supply chain for PCB equipment [16][17] - The antibiotic sector, particularly for the company Federated Pharmaceuticals, is stable with a growing market for diabetes and animal health products, projecting net profits of 2.839 billion, 2.452 billion, and 2.705 billion for 2025-2027 [29][30] Total Research - As of July 29, 2025, the 10-year government bond yield is at 1.75%, up 11 basis points from the June low of 1.64% [3] - Historical patterns indicate that bond yields can reverse in either a V-shape or W-shape, with the latter often leading to a more significant upward movement [4][5] - The report anticipates that the 10-year government bond yield could rise to a target range of 1.9% to 2.2% in the second half of 2025, driven by economic recovery and inflation normalization [10] Industry Analysis - The communication sector is seeing increased demand for light modules and liquid cooling solutions, as indicated by Celestica's performance [12] - The PCB industry is entering a phase of intensive expansion, with several manufacturers announcing new projects to meet the rising demand for high-end products [17][18] - AI's impact on PCB performance is pushing for upgrades in materials and manufacturing processes, with a focus on higher layer counts and advanced techniques [19][20] Company-Specific Insights - Celestica's second-quarter revenue reached $2.89 billion, a 21% year-over-year increase, with a notable 82% growth in its hardware platform solutions segment [12] - The company is benefiting from strong demand from its top clients, which account for a significant portion of its revenue [12] - The report emphasizes the potential for significant growth in the PCB equipment market due to ongoing expansions and technological upgrades [16][18]

Group 1 - Report Industry Investment Rating - Information not provided Group 2 - Core View of the Report - In the second half of 2025, the target for the 10-year Treasury bond yield is expected to be between 1.9% and 2.2%. With the economic growth rate likely not to decline significantly in the second half of 2025, bond yields are expected to rise due to the revision of economic expectations. Historically, the reasonable level of the 10-year Treasury bond yield has generally been in the range of DR007 + 40 to 70BP. If policies to counter内卷 are effective in the second half of 2025 and inflation normalizes, the DR007 central level is expected to rise above the inflation level, and the reasonable range of the 10-year Treasury bond yield is also expected to increase accordingly [6]. Group 3 - Summary Based on Related Catalogs Law 1: Two Ways for Bond Yields to Reach the Bottom - Historically, there are two forms of bond yields reaching the bottom: V-shaped reversal and W-shaped reversal. For V-shaped reversals, significant policy stimuli lead to a rapid economic upswing, causing bond yields to show a V-shaped reversal, as seen in 2009 and 2020. For W-shaped reversals, bond yields experience a double bottom because the economy stabilizes in an L-shape and market expectations for the economy are uncertain. After the first bottom and rebound, yields usually decline again, even to new lows, such as in Q3 2012 and Q2 2013, Q1 2016 and Q3 2016. In the case of a W-shaped reversal, market congestion is usually low when bond yields are at the first low and high when at the second low. Also, the upward amplitude of a W-shaped reversal is greater than that of a V-shaped reversal, with the upward amplitudes in 2009 and 2020 being around 100BP and 80BP respectively, and those in 2013 and 2016 being around 140BP and 130BP respectively [3]. Law 2: Bond Yield Increases Lag Behind the Stock Market's Upward Trend - Four logics suggest that the stock market's upward trend leads bond yields. Firstly, the stock market is more sensitive to the economy as stock trading is often bottom-up and more sensitive to micro - entity changes. Secondly, the stock market represents the market's endogenous driving force, and its upward trend may indicate continuous improvement in this force. Thirdly, bond investors have strong long - position stickiness because of the coupon income of bond assets. Fourthly, the performance evaluation mechanism of bond funds, which is mainly based on relative returns, has made it difficult for bond investors to reduce their duration since 2021. Historically, in 2009, 2013, 2016, and 2020, the stock market rose first, and bond yields increased later [4][5]. Law 3: The Direct Triggering Reasons for Bond Yield Increases Vary - Historically, the logic for bond yield increases is usually economic recovery and rising funds, but by the time investors confirm these, bond yields have often risen significantly. The direct triggering reasons for bond yield increases at inflection points have been different each time, making it difficult to accurately predict yield inflection points. For example, in January 2009, the trigger was credit data; in June 2013, it was the "money shortage"; in August 2016, it was tight funds; and in April 2020, it was the change in epidemic prevention policies [5].