Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Overweight [1] Core Views - The report highlights the strong momentum in AI development both domestically and internationally, suggesting potential investment opportunities in the sector [4][43] - OpenAI has opened access to its deep research model API, providing developers with powerful tools for tasks requiring advanced reasoning and real-time information [3][46] - The Hong Kong government has introduced a regulatory framework for stablecoins, which may enhance financing options for companies in China [4] Market Review - From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.91%, the ChiNext Index increased by 5.69%, and the CSI 300 Index saw a 1.95% rise. The Hang Seng Tech Index and Nasdaq Index both experienced gains of 4.06% and 4.25%, respectively [2][23] - The AI index increased by 5.24%, while the computer index rose by 7.7%, indicating strong performance in these sectors [23] AI Developments - OpenAI's deep research model API is now available, which includes features like automated web search and data analysis, enhancing the capabilities for developers [3][43] - Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen launched a new multimodal model, Qwen VLo, which is designed for precise control in generating long text passages [4][45] - Tencent's Hunyuan-A13B model has been released, boasting 80 billion parameters with a focus on efficiency and cost-effectiveness [4][44] Semiconductor Sector - Micron reported a revenue of $9.301 billion for Q3 of fiscal year 2025, marking a 15.5% quarter-over-quarter increase and a 36.56% year-over-year increase, with DRAM revenue reaching a historical high [7][48] Automotive Sector - Tesla's Model Y has achieved fully autonomous delivery from factory to customer, marking a significant milestone in self-driving technology [8] E-commerce Developments - Amazon plans to expand its same-day and next-day delivery services to over 4,000 small towns and rural communities in the U.S. by the end of 2025, with an investment of approximately $4 billion [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Xiaomi's recent product launch has attracted market attention, indicating that the next generation of personal terminal innovative products has a long way to go [5] - The report provides a review of the market performance for the week of June 23 to June 27, 2025, noting significant increases in various indices, with the semiconductor packaging and testing sector showing the highest growth at 8.32% [4][37] Summary by Sections 1. Important News in the Electronics Industry - The report mentions that the Chinese PC monitor market saw a 14% year-on-year increase in shipments in Q1 2025, driven by government subsidies [13] - OLED and MiniLED monitors experienced explosive growth, with OLED shipments increasing by 433.7% year-on-year [14] - The global semiconductor foundry market reached $72.29 billion in Q1 2025, a 12.5% increase year-on-year, driven by demand for AI and HPC chips [18] - The global smart camera market grew by 4.6% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with Xiaomi showing a notable increase of 38.6% in shipments in the Chinese market [21][27] 2. Market Performance Review - The report details the performance of various indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.91%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 3.73% during the week [4][37] - The semiconductor packaging and testing sector led the industry with an 8.32% increase, while the panel sector lagged with a 3.11% increase [4][37] 3. Individual Stock Performance - The report lists the top-performing stocks for the week, including Haoshanghao and Weiteou, while stocks like Lianjian Optoelectronics and Jiemite performed poorly [53] - Year-to-date performance highlights include Shenghong Technology and Nanya New Materials as top performers, while stocks like Shengke Communication-U and Guoxing Optoelectronics lagged [53]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The game space for the bond market from the economic fundamentals is shrinking. The economy performed well in Q1, and it is likely to be decent in Q2. It is highly probable that the annual growth rate will reach around 5%. Considering the bond market's front - running effect, not adding positions now may lead to missing an important long - buying window this year. For public funds with relative ranking assessments, it will be extremely difficult to outperform peer products in the second half of the year [4][10]. - Whether the central bank will restart bond purchases is a significant game point in the current bond market. Currently, market sentiment has reached a high level, with the bond market's leverage ratio and bond fund duration both rising. If the central bank announces bond purchases at the end of the month, the short - end yields may decline further, driving down the long - end yields. However, the monetary authority may be aware of the bond market's front - running tendency, and considering that the June 18th Lujiazui Forum did not mention restarting bond purchases and the central bank's Q2 monetary policy meeting maintained the statement of "monitoring changes in long - term bond yields", caution should be exercised regarding the central bank's potential restart of bond purchases [4][10]. - Investors face a prisoner's dilemma when gambling on the central bank's bond - buying. If the central bank restarts bond purchases, investors who miss the opportunity may find it difficult to have another chance to boost returns this year. For those who add positions, the ranking competition depends on the depth of strategy implementation (leverage, duration). If the central bank does not announce bond purchases, heavy - position investors may incur losses, and the ranking competition among those who added positions depends on the speed of stop - loss [4][10]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Institutional Behavior Review - **Overall Situation**: At the cross - quarter time point, the bond market was volatile, with short - end bonds performing better. The 10 - year treasury bond yield remained flat, while the 1 - year and 3 - year yields decreased slightly by 1 - 2bp. Investors face a prisoner's dilemma due to factors such as cross - quarter, public funds' pursuit of rankings and scale, the uncertainty of central bank bond - buying, and the yet - to - be - released June PMI data. Large banks have been buying short - term bonds for nearly a month, non - bank institutions have high chasing sentiment, and other product - type net purchases have increased significantly [2][9]. - **Yield Curve**: Treasury bond yields declined at the short - end and rose at the long - end. The 1Y yield decreased by 1bp, 3Y by 1bp, while 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, 15Y, and 30Y yields rose by about 1bp, 3bp, 1bp, 1bp, and 1bp respectively. For China Development Bank bonds, short - end yields declined, and medium - to - long - end yields rose. The 1Y yield decreased by 1bp, 3Y yield changed less than 1bp, 5Y decreased by 1bp, 7Y rose by about 1bp, 10Y remained flat, 15Y rose by 2bp, and 30Y rose by 1bp [12]. - **Term Spread**: Treasury bond and China Development Bank bond spreads showed different trends. For treasury bonds, the short - end spreads widened, and the long - end spreads showed different trends. For China Development Bank bonds, the spreads also showed different trends [13][16]. 2. Bond Market Leverage and Funding Situation - **Leverage Ratio**: From June 23rd to June 27th, 2025, the leverage ratio fluctuated and decreased. As of June 27th, it was approximately 107.80%, down 0.05 percentage points from last Friday and up 0.04 percentage points from Monday [19]. - **Average Daily Turnover of Pledged Repurchase**: From June 23rd to 27th, the average daily turnover of pledged repurchase was about 7.7 trillion yuan, down 0.55 trillion yuan from last week. The average daily overnight turnover accounted for 83% [22][26]. - **Funding Situation**: From June 23rd to June 27th, bank - related fund outflows continued to increase. The net fund outflow of large banks and policy banks on June 27th was 4.93 trillion yuan; joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks had an average daily net inflow of 0.01 trillion yuan, with a net outflow of 0.25 trillion yuan on June 27th. The main fund - borrowing party was funds, and the money - market fund outflows first increased and then decreased [27]. 3. Duration of Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds - **Median Duration**: This week (June 23rd - June 27th), the median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds was 2.87 years (de - leveraged) and 3.17 years (leveraged). On June 27th, the median duration (de - leveraged) was 2.87 years, up 0.05 years from last Friday; the median duration (leveraged) was 3.17 years, up 0.11 years from last Friday [43]. - **Duration by Bond Fund Type**: The median duration (leveraged) of interest - rate bond funds rose to 3.82 years, up 0.13 years from last Friday; the median duration (leveraged) of credit - bond funds rose to 2.95 years, up 0.08 years from last Friday. The median duration (de - leveraged) of interest - rate bond funds was 3.44 years, up 0.04 years from last Friday; the median duration (de - leveraged) of credit - bond funds was 2.74 years, up 0.05 years from last Friday [47][48]. 4. Comparison of Category Strategies - **Sino - US Yield Spread**: The overall Sino - US treasury bond yield spread widened. The 1Y spread widened by 9bp, 2Y by 16bp, 3Y by 13bp, 5Y by about 14bp, 7Y by 16bp, 10Y by 10bp, and 30Y by 5bp [50]. - **Implied Tax Rate**: As of June 27th, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds for 1Y and 3Y changed less than 1bp, 5Y narrowed by about 2bp, 7Y narrowed by 1bp, 10Y changed less than 1bp, 15Y widened by 1bp, and 30Y changed less than 1bp [53]. 5. Changes in Bond Lending Balances On June 27th, the lending concentration of active 10 - year treasury bonds, second - active 10 - year China Development Bank bonds, and active 30 - year treasury bonds showed an upward trend, as did the second - active 10 - year treasury bonds and active 10 - year China Development Bank bonds. By institution, all institutions showed a decline [54].

[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 深度报告 探析信用债 ETF 成份券交易策略 报告日期： 2025-06-27 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 首选做市券，次选做市主体券，提前布局科创债成份券 近期，信用债 ETF 行情较好，流通市值整体大涨，作为以实物交割为主的 交易性开放式指数基金，规模的增长会转化为对信用债的配置需求，进而 推动相关个券流动性的提升与收益率的下行，因此以标的指数成份券为主 要交易对象的策略在当前环境下的性价比凸显。 具体来看，我们以 PCF 清单为依据，近似观测当前沪深做市信用债 ETF 的 主要持仓结构。截至 6 月 25 日，每日被信用债 ETF 持仓的债券余额已超过 7400 亿元，其中 ETF 持仓的金额超过 1100 亿元，被 ETF 持仓的金额占债 券余额的比重来到 15.5%。分评级来看，信用债 ETF 主要持有隐含 AAA 个 券，其次为 AAA- 与 AA+，对应持仓规模分别占到全部做市券余额的 15.2%、8.8%与 9.7%。而在期限方面，信用债 ETF 主要持有 1 至 3 年期与 7 至 10 年期债券，其中后者占比最高， ...

Market Overview - On June 25, the market experienced a significant rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.04% and the ChiNext Index rising by 3.11%. The total trading volume for the A-share market reached 1.64 trillion, an increase of 0.19 trillion from the previous day, representing a 13% increase in trading volume [1][2]. Sector Performance - The surge in the ChiNext Index was largely supported by the strong performance of the securities sector, driven by positive sentiment from the Hong Kong market, particularly following the approval of a virtual asset trading license for Guotai Junan International. This led to a nearly 200% increase in Guotai Junan International's stock price in Hong Kong, which in turn catalyzed the A-share securities sector [2]. - The defense and military industry also contributed to the market's rise, influenced by several catalysts, including the announcement of a military parade on September 3 to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Anti-Japanese War and the meeting of defense ministers from Shanghai Cooperation Organization member states [2]. Market Dynamics - The market is positioned at a new equilibrium, with ample potential liquidity and strong market expectations. The macroeconomic environment remains supportive, with a continuous easing of liquidity and a decline in risk-free interest rates, which provides sufficient potential liquidity for the equity market. There is a consensus on the need to stabilize the capital market, which has led to improved market sentiment [3]. - The report suggests that while the market is expected to experience increased volatility at this new equilibrium, the risk of a significant downturn is low due to the regulatory focus on market stability and the resilience of the economy [3]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies two main investment themes: 1. Short-term investments in banks and insurance companies, which offer stability and high dividend yields, making them attractive in a fluctuating market. The robust operational stability and significant dividend payout ratios of banks are highlighted as key factors for sustained investment [4][6]. 2. Sectors with strong economic support, including rare earth permanent magnets, precious metals, engineering machinery, motorcycles, and agricultural chemicals. The demand for precious metals is expected to rise due to increased central bank reserves and a long-term downward trend in global real interest rates [6]. Growth Risks - The report notes that the growth technology sector faces increasing risks of a pullback, particularly as the valuation of the computer industry has reached a historical high of 82.9 times as of June 25, 2025, which is comparable to previous market peaks. The report emphasizes that valuation changes are critical to market trends and that the technology sector may face significant valuation challenges moving forward [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The current market has a strong consensus on the bond market. Geopolitical and macro - environmental factors are favorable to the bond market, and the monetary policy is in a loosening trend. The impact of supply logic is expected to slow down in the third quarter. One can continue to explore convex points on the curve and certain bond types with spreads, and should also set up right - side profit - taking strategies at the end of the half - year [3]. - More than 70% of fixed - income sellers are bullish on the bond market this week, and the sentiment has significantly warmed up. The sentiment index of both sellers and buyers is approaching the annual high, with more than half of the institutions being bullish [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Seller and Buyer Markets 1.1 Seller Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The weighted sentiment index this week is 0.55, and the unweighted index is 0.68, up 0.11 from last week. 72% of institutions are bullish, 21% neutral, and 7% bearish [11]. 1.2 Buyer Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The buyer sentiment index this week is 0.35, up 0.12 from last week. 52% of institutions are bullish, and 48% are neutral [12]. 1.3 Credit Bonds - Market hot topics include seasonal entry of wealth management products and market's expectation of monetary easing. After the quarter - end, the scale of wealth management products expands, and the central bank maintains a loose capital environment [18]. 1.4 Convertible Bonds - This week, institutions hold a neutral - to - bullish view. 23% of institutions are bullish, and 77% are neutral [20]. 2. Treasury Futures Tracking 2.1 Futures Trading - As of June 20, the prices, trading volumes, and open interests of TS/TF/T/TL treasury futures contracts all increased, while the trading - to - open - interest ratios generally decreased [22][23]. 2.2 Spot Bond Trading - On June 20, the turnover rate of 30Y treasury bonds and interest - rate bonds increased, while that of 10Y CDB bonds decreased [31][34]. 2.3 Basis Trading - As of June 20, the basis of the TS contract widened, and the net basis of TS and T contracts widened. The IRR of TF slightly decreased, while others increased [39][43]. 2.4 Spread Trading - As of June 20, except for the narrowing of the inter - delivery spread of the T contract, other inter - delivery spreads and all inter - product spreads widened [51].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a bond专题 report focusing on the Fed's interest - rate cut rules under the Sahm Rule [1][14] - Chief analyst is Yan Ziqi, with research assistant Hong Ziyan [2] Group 2: What is the Sahm Rule - In 2019, former Fed economist Claudia Sahm proposed the Sahm Rule, which states that when the three - month moving average of the US unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage points or more relative to the lowest point in the previous 12 months, the economy is likely in recession [2] - The Sahm Rule is a recession indicator, not a prediction tool, and it reflects the current state of the economy [3] Group 3: Advantages and Accuracy of the Sahm Rule - The Sahm Rule is more timely than other economic recession measurement methods. Since 1953, its trigger time lags behind the NBER - declared recession start time by an average of 2.3 months, while the NBER's declaration has an average lag of 4 - 8 months [3] - The accuracy of the Sahm Rule is 100% for NBER - declared recessions. Since 1950, all 11 NBER - declared recessions were confirmed by the Sahm Rule, with a maximum lag of 4 months. However, there were two "false alarms" in 1959 and 2003 [3] Group 4: Failure Cases of the Sahm Rule - In November 1959, a 116 - day strike by steelworkers caused a short - term spike in manufacturing unemployment, leading to a false alarm. During the trigger period from November to December 1959, the ISM manufacturing PMI was above 50% [4] - In July 2003, the trigger was due to structural unemployment caused by rapid industrial - structure changes during high - speed economic growth. The GDP growth rate in Q2 2003 was 3.6%, and the ISM service PMI in July 2003 was 59.2% [4] Group 5: 2024 Sahm Signal Trigger Analysis - In April, June, and July 2024, the Sahm signal was triggered, with the three - month moving average of the U3 unemployment rate at 3.9%, 4.1%, and 4.2% respectively, exceeding the previous 12 - month low by 0.5pct, 0.5pct, and 0.6pct [5] - The unemployment rate was still not high. The average unemployment rate during the Sahm - Rule trigger period is 7%, and during the NBER - declared recession is 6%. In Q1 2024, GDP grew by 1.6% quarter - on - quarter, and in April 2024, the ISM manufacturing and service PMIs dropped below the boom - bust line, showing mild recession signs [6] Group 6: Relationship between the Sahm Rule and Fed's Interest - rate Cuts - The Fed's actual interest - rate cuts occurred before the start of recession intervals because economic slowdown was signaled by indicators like PMI before recession. The Fed also continued to cut rates during recessions [7] - In 2003, despite a false alarm of the Sahm signal, the Fed cut rates by 25BP one month before due to high unemployment and an unbalanced economic structure [7] - In 2024, the normal sequence of "rate hike→rate cut→recession" was broken, changing to "rate hike→recession→rate cut". The Fed cut rates 6 months after the first Sahm - signal warning, likely due to concerns about inflation [8] - The Fed's rate cuts in 2024 were likely influenced by the Sahm Rule. In September 2024, the Fed cut rates by 50BP when the CPI was still relatively high. The three rate cuts in 2024 occurred when the Sahm - signal value was between 0.43 - 0.47pct [9] Group 7: Outlook - Currently, the Sahm signal indicates that the US has temporarily exited the recession period. However, other indicators suggest economic slowdown risks, and there may be a possibility of re - entering a recession [10] - Future rate - cut predictions should focus on whether the Sahm - signal value rises above 0.4%. Given the current downward trend of inflation, the Fed may cut rates when the Sahm - signal value is relatively high, even before the 0.5% warning is triggered [11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The report highlights strong momentum in AI development both domestically and internationally, suggesting potential investment opportunities in the rebound of internet stocks in Hong Kong [2][4] - The performance of major indices shows a mixed trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.51% and the Nasdaq Index up by 0.21% during the week of June 16 to June 20, 2025 [25] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.51%, the ChiNext Index fell by 1.66%, and the CSI 300 Index dropped by 0.45% during the week [25] - The Hang Seng Technology Index declined by 2.03%, while the Nasdaq Index increased by 0.21% [25] AI Developments - Google announced the official launch of the Gemini 2.5 series models, with significant updates and pricing adjustments, including a 30%-60% reduction in the price of Gemini-2.5-Flash-Lite compared to Gemini-2.5-Flash [3][42] - OpenAI's CEO announced that GPT-5 is expected to be released in the summer of 2025, marking a significant advancement in generative AI capabilities [42] Domestic AI Innovations - Tencent announced the open-sourcing of the Mix Yuan 3D 2.1 model, which is the first fully open-source industrial-grade 3D generative model, optimized for detail modeling and capable of high-quality rendering [3][43] - MiniMax released the MiniMax-M1 model, which supports the highest context input of 1 million tokens and is noted for its cost efficiency in deep reasoning tasks [43] Semiconductor Sector - A report indicated that the average selling price of enterprise-grade solid-state drives fell by nearly 20% in Q1 2025, affecting the revenue of major eSSD brands [47] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on recent updates in overseas large model developments, with relevant companies including Meta, Adobe, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, AMD, and Amazon [7] - In the domestic AI sector, companies such as Baidu, Alibaba, Meitu, Tencent, Meituan, and Kuaishou are highlighted for their advancements [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The 20Y Treasury bond market may not be over yet, with potential for the 20Y - 30Y spread to compress further, and the 20Y Treasury bond may be more cost - effective than the 50Y Treasury bond [2][3][12] - Investors can look for opportunities in some old bonds with certain liquidity and spread compression potential, but the follow - up odds of 230023 may be insufficient [3][13] - In the current bond market environment of extending duration and increasing leverage, there is no need to overly worry about reversal risks before the end of the month, and attention should be paid to the right - side response after sudden event shocks [4][6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Institutional Behavior Review: Which Bonds Can Be Explored? - **Yield Curve**: Both Treasury and China Development Bank bond yields generally declined. For Treasury bonds, the 1Y yield dropped 4bp, 3Y dropped 3bp, 5Y dropped 4bp, 7Y dropped about 2bp, 10Y changed less than 1bp, 15Y dropped 3bp, and 30Y dropped 1bp. For China Development Bank bonds, the 1Y yield dropped about 1bp, 3Y dropped 2bp, 5Y dropped 3bp, 7Y and 10Y dropped about 2bp, 15Y dropped 5bp, and 30Y remained flat [15] - **Term Spread**: Treasury bond spreads showed deeper inversion and short - end spreads widened, while China Development Bank bond spreads had a differentiated trend with long - end spreads widening [18][19] 3.2 Bond Market Leverage and Funding Conditions - **Leverage Ratio**: The leverage ratio rose to 107.85%. As of June 20, it was about 107.85%, up 0.38pct from last Friday and 0.35pct from this Monday [21] - **Average Daily Repo Turnover**: The average daily turnover of pledged repos was 8.3 trillion yuan, with an average overnight share of 89.71%. The average daily turnover increased compared to last week [28] - **Funding Conditions**: Bank funding supply fluctuated upward. DR007 first rose and then fell, R007 first fell and then rose. 1YFR007 and 5YFR007 both declined [33][34] 3.3 Duration of Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds - **Median Duration**: The median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds rose to 2.82 years (de - leveraged) and 3.07 years (including leverage). On June 20, the median duration (de - leveraged) was 2.82 years, up 0.04 years from last Friday; the median duration (including leverage) was 3.07 years, up 0.11 years from last Friday [44] - **Duration of Bond Fund Types**: The median duration of interest - rate bond funds (including leverage) remained at 3.69 years, up 0.02 years from last Friday; the median duration of credit bond funds (including leverage) rose to 2.88 years, up 0.15 years from last Friday [47] 3.4 Comparison of Generic Strategies - **Sino - US Yield Spread**: The overall Sino - US yield spread widened. The 1Y spread narrowed by about 2bp, while the 2Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y spreads widened [51] - **Implied Tax Rate**: The short - end implied tax rate widened, while the medium - and long - end narrowed [52] 3.5 Changes in Bond Lending Balances On June 20, the lending concentration trends of the active 10Y and 30Y Treasury bonds rose, while those of the second - active 10Y Treasury bond, the active 10Y China Development Bank bond, and the second - active 10Y China Development Bank bond declined [57]

Core Conclusions - The report emphasizes the accumulation of upward momentum in the A-share market, advocating for a focus on high dividend stocks, sectors supported by economic conditions, and active growth themes [3][4]. Market Overview - The market is expected to experience upward momentum amidst fluctuations, with loose liquidity providing a floor but slow internal growth limiting rapid increases. The overall profit forecast for the A-share market indicates a confirmed improvement trend, which may become a significant force for upward breakthroughs [6][11]. - The report predicts that the overall growth will show a steady decline, with GDP growth expected to reach 5.0% for 2025, with quarterly estimates of 5.4% for Q1 and 4.7% for Q4 [10][11]. Industry Allocation - The report suggests a preference for three main directions in industry allocation: 1. High dividend stocks, particularly in banking and insurance, which are expected to benefit from improved economic conditions and liquidity [4][6]. 2. Sectors supported by economic conditions, including new materials, rare metals, precious metals, engineering machinery, motorcycles, and agricultural chemicals [4][6]. 3. Active growth themes such as AI and robotics, and military industry, which are anticipated to experience a rebound after initial suppression [4][6]. Economic Analysis - The report highlights the interplay of "slow variables" like consumer behavior and "fast variables" such as exports and real estate, indicating that consumer spending is expected to recover slowly while external demand may weaken [12][19]. - It notes that consumer spending is heavily reliant on government subsidies, with the "old-for-new" policy significantly boosting consumption [20][22]. Export Outlook - The report indicates that global demand is under pressure due to tariff conflicts initiated by the U.S., which may hinder export growth. The forecast for export growth in 2025 has been adjusted to 1.8%, significantly lower than the previous year's 5.9% [46][47]. - It emphasizes the need for China to diversify its export markets and shift towards domestic sales in response to external uncertainties [47][48]. Real Estate Sector - The report discusses the weakening momentum in the real estate sector, with new home sales under pressure and a significant increase in unsold inventory. The forecast for real estate development investment has been revised down to a decline of 9.9% for 2025 [51][60]. - It highlights that the recovery in the real estate market is likely to face challenges without new policy stimuli, as transaction volumes and prices remain under pressure [53][56].