Group 1 - The report highlights that the current net financing by major banks has reached an unprecedented level of 5.3 trillion yuan, which is historically high and linked to the central bank's liquidity support [2][12][16] - It notes that the trend of easing liquidity can be linearly extrapolated, and any disruption to this trend would require additional variables [3][13] - The report suggests that if the liquidity remains loose in July, the long-term interest rates may decline further, with the current 10Y-1Y yield spread at 30 basis points, the highest since mid-February [3][12][13] Group 2 - The report indicates that the leverage ratio in the bond market has risen to 107.85%, reflecting an increase in borrowing activity [23] - It mentions that the average daily transaction volume of pledged repos was approximately 7.6 trillion yuan, with overnight repos accounting for 89.71% of the total [27][31] - The report states that the median duration of medium- to long-term bond funds remains at 2.87 years, indicating stability in fund management strategies [49]

策略研究 周度报告 "反内卷"行情能否成为新主线？ [Table_RptDate] 报告日期： 2025-07-06 [Table_Author] 分析师：郑小霞 执业证书号：S0010520080007 电话：13391921291 邮箱：zhengxx@hazq.com 分析师：刘超 执业证书号：S0010520090001 电话：13269985073 邮箱：liuchao@hazq.com 分析师：张运智 执业证书号：S0010523070001 电话：13699270398 邮箱：zhangyz@hazq.com 分析师：任思雨 执业证书号：S0010523070003 电话：18501373409 邮箱：rensy@hazq.com 分析师：陈博 执业证书号：S0010525070002 电话：18811134382 邮箱：chenbo@hazq.com 相关报告 1.策略月报《扰动在前，提升在后 — 2025 年 7 月 A 股市场研判及配置机 会》2025-06-29 2.中期策略《积聚向上突破的力量 — 2025 年 A 股中期投资策略》2025-06- 22 主要观点 ⚫ 短期存在外部风险 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the synthetic biology industry Core Insights - The synthetic biology sector is experiencing a global technological revolution, providing innovative solutions to major challenges such as health, climate change, and food security, as highlighted by the National Development and Reform Commission's "14th Five-Year Plan for Bioeconomic Development" [4] - The Huazhong Securities Synthetic Biology Index, which includes 58 companies across various sectors, has seen a decline of 3.42% recently, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index [5][17] - The first local regulations for synthetic biology manufacturing were passed in Changde, Hunan, aimed at promoting industry development and addressing issues like talent shortages and approval efficiency [8][10] Summary by Sections 1.1 Secondary Market Performance - The synthetic biology sector's stocks have shown poor performance, with a recent decline of 3.42%, ranking 32nd among sectors [17] - The top-performing companies include Jincheng Pharmaceutical (+11%), Xinhai Hengli (+10%), and Dongbao Biological (+7%) [18] 1.2 Company Business Progress - Kexin Pharmaceutical's CAR-T therapy targeting Claudin18.2 has received regulatory acceptance for market application, offering new treatment options for advanced gastric cancer patients [23] - Angel Yeast announced a significant investment of 5.56 billion yuan to expand its biological manufacturing center and enhance its product lines [23] - Internationally, Covestro acquired Swiss film technology company Pontacol to strengthen its specialty materials business [25] 1.3 Industry Financing Tracking - The synthetic biology sector is witnessing accelerated financing, with nearly 100 companies completing new funding rounds since the beginning of 2025 [31] - Zhejiang Rongrui Technology completed nearly 100 million yuan in Pre-A financing, focusing on green biological manufacturing [31] - Avantium, a Dutch biobased PEF company, secured 10 million euros to alleviate short-term liquidity pressures [31]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Since 2024, the bond trading attributes of joint-stock banks, which were "neglected" in traditional institutional behavior research, have expanded, and high-frequency operations of interest rate bands can be observed. Based on their behavior, corresponding buy and sell timing signals can be constructed, and the follow-up strategy outperforms the benchmark return (10Y Treasury bond) by about 30% [2][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Why Do We Focus on the Trading Behavior of Joint-Stock Banks? 1.1 A Consensus on the Institutional Behavior of Joint-Stock Banks in the Market Joint-stock banks are the last "puzzle piece" in institutional behavior research. The market consensus on the institutional behavior of joint-stock banks is that they usually conduct distribution in the secondary market. Joint-stock banks and city commercial banks typically have an obvious nature of "primary subscription and secondary distribution," so they generally show a net selling feature in secondary cash bond transactions. Historically, joint-stock banks have shown a net selling state in nearly 90% of the time, similar to city commercial banks [11]. 1.2 New Features of the Institutional Behavior of Joint-Stock Banks Since 2024 Since 2024, joint-stock banks have started to increase interest rate band trading. On the one hand, as the Ministry of Finance has increased the issuance scale of single Treasury bonds, the stock scale of active bonds with key tenors (such as 10Y) has reached a new high, reducing the impact of distribution from new bond issuance. On the other hand, since 2024, the overall liability side of the banking system has been squeezed, making them more reliant on the income from bond investment business on the asset side. Therefore, the trading volume of joint-stock banks for old 10-year Treasury bonds has increased significantly, and they are no longer in the previous mode of distribution and passive buying during bond market corrections [2][14]. 2. Judgment of Interest Rate Timing Signals Based on the Trading Behavior of Joint-Stock Banks 2.1 Construction of Low-Frequency Interest Rate Timing Signals Based on the trading behavior of joint-stock banks, a cash bond follow-up strategy signal is constructed. By studying the trading behavior of joint-stock banks on long-term bonds and eliminating the impact of the latest bond distribution, in the past year, the long-term interest rate band trading return following joint-stock banks under the 10MA caliber has exceeded the benchmark by nearly 30%. From September last year to late June this year, the 10-year Treasury bond yield declined by 49bp, while the interest rate band return following joint-stock banks was 62bp, with an excess return of 13bp over the benchmark and an overall excess return rate of 26%. Moreover, if the continuous days of the signal triggered by joint-stock banks exceed 5 trading days, the winning rate of their buying signals in the past year was 100%, capturing a total band of 59bp, and the winning rate of selling signals was 60%, avoiding a capital loss of 15bp [2][18][21]. 2.2 Construction of Medium-Frequency and Other Timing Signals Two other perspectives can be used to observe the interest rate timing signals of the trading behavior of joint-stock banks. First, observe the higher-frequency 5MA caliber buying signals. Since 2025 is a year of strong fiscal efforts, there may still be distribution impacts under the old bond caliber at some time points, so the buying signals of joint-stock banks may be more meaningful than the selling signals. Second, observe the extreme value of single-day demand. If it exceeds a certain threshold, it can be regarded as an overbought or oversold signal, and the historical backtesting shows a relatively high winning rate [3][24][27].

Economic Indicators - In June, the official manufacturing PMI recorded 49.7%, a slight increase from 49.5% in May, but still below the expansion threshold[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5% from 50.3%, indicating continued expansion in the service sector[2] - The composite PMI output index increased to 50.7%, reflecting overall economic recovery[2] Manufacturing Sector Insights - The production index continued to expand, with new orders rising above the threshold, indicating improved demand[3] - New export orders showed a minor recovery, with domestic orders performing better than foreign ones[3] - The purchasing volume surged into the expansion zone, reflecting a positive shift in corporate procurement attitudes[3] Price and Inventory Dynamics - Both factory prices and major raw material purchase prices increased, indicating a balance between downstream demand recovery and upstream commodity price fluctuations[3] - Finished goods inventory rose significantly, while raw material inventory continued to recover, suggesting a cautious approach to inventory management[3] Sectoral Performance - The equipment manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points to 51.4%, while the consumer goods sector PMI rose to 50.4%, marking six consecutive months of growth[4] - Large enterprises maintained strong PMI performance, while small enterprises saw a decline of 2 percentage points, highlighting resource imbalances within the industry[4] Future Outlook - The EPMI index fell to 47.9%, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a divergence from the PMI due to ongoing trade tensions and tariff issues[10] - Economic recovery remains uncertain, with the real estate sector still in a downturn and consumer prices under pressure, suggesting reliance on fiscal stimulus for demand recovery[13] - The bond market is expected to remain stable, supported by the current economic data and policy expectations, despite external uncertainties[16]

Group 1: Core Views - The report mainly discusses three questions in light of the Q3 national debt issuance plan announced on June 30: whether the ultra-long bonds will experience a bond-switching market again, what rules can be grasped if the bond-switching market arrives, and how to view the supply pressure of interest rate bonds within the year [2] - The issuance scale of ultra-long special national debts this year has increased and remained constant, with 20Y/30Y/50Y at 50 billion yuan, 71 billion yuan, and 50 billion yuan respectively. The estimated total issuance for the year is about 1.302 trillion yuan, roughly in line with the 1.3 trillion yuan announced during the Two Sessions [3] - The 20Y bonds may experience a bond switch, while the 30Y active bond is likely to remain 2500002.IB. The short-term probability of a 30Y bond switch is low [4] - For 20Y national debts, if the single-bond issuance scale exceeds 5 billion yuan, the new bond may see a rush, with interest rates declining first, and the current active bond 2500001.IB may adjust. For 30Y national debts, if there is an expectation of an active bond switch, the single-bond issuance scale on July 14 needs to be large enough, or the issuance scale of each period of the bond needs to be small enough [6] - The supply peak of interest rate bonds may occur in August, and the supply pressure in July is significantly reduced. The bond market in July is favorable from the supply perspective. The central bank may restart national debt purchases in August to hedge against the supply peak or announce it in advance in July [6] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no relevant content provided in the text Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Perspective 1: Is it possible for ultra-long bonds to be switched? - The issuance scale of ultra-long special national debts this year has increased and remained constant, different from the past where the single-bond issuance scale was usually small and the reissuance scale occasionally changed [3] - Based on the linear extrapolation of the special national debt issuance scale from the beginning of the year to date, the total issuance for the year is about 1.302 trillion yuan, consistent with the announced amount [3] - The 20Y bonds may experience a bond switch, and if the first issuance scale of 20Y bonds exceeds 5 billion yuan, the market may expect this bond type to become the active bond. The short-term probability of a 30Y bond switch is low, and the active bond 2500002.IB position can be maintained [4] Perspective 2: How to respond if there is an expectation of an active bond switch? - For 20Y national debts, if the single-bond issuance scale exceeds 5 billion yuan, the new bond may see a rush, and the current active bond 2500001.IB may adjust [6] - For 30Y national debts, if the single-bond issuance scale on July 14 exceeds 12 billion yuan, investors may expect the final scale of this 30Y national debt to exceed the current active bond, leading to a rush. If the issuance scale of the 30Y special national debts on July 14, July 24, and August 8 is small enough, the expectation of an active bond switch may increase [6][7] - The supply peak of interest rate bonds may be in August, and the supply pressure in July is reduced. The bond market in July is favorable from the supply perspective. The strategy can maintain the duration and wait for the opportunity of interest rate decline in the second half of the year [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - **Hua'an's View**: It is recommended to switch to active bonds to capture the left - hand side of the bond market trend. The trading mainline of the bond market is unclear. Although the overall situation is favorable, there are still negative factors under the high - duration and high - leverage of investors. The fundamentals are not likely to be negative for the bond market, and the central bank has an obvious intention to support the capital market. Holding 10Y/30Y active bonds helps to obtain capital gains when positive factors materialize and stop losses in case of negative factors [2]. - **Seller's View**: The sentiment index has slightly declined, but more than 60% of fixed - income sellers are bullish on the bond market. Among 29 institutions, 19 are bullish, 8 are neutral, and 2 are bearish [2]. - **Buyer's View**: The overall view of fixed - income buyers is still bullish on the bond market, but the sentiment index has declined for two consecutive weeks. Among 24 institutions, 10 are bullish, 13 are neutral, and 1 is bearish [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Seller and Buyer Markets 1.1 Seller Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The weighted sentiment index this week is 0.48, and the unweighted index is 0.60, down 0.07 from last week. 66% of institutions are bullish, believing that July is an important window for long - positions due to historical patterns, economic weakness, and loose funds, with low bond supply pressure and favorable quarter - end institutional behavior. 27% are neutral, citing limited positive impact of the Lujiazui Forum on further decline of capital interest rates, economic resilience in the context of export rush, and potential unexpected outcomes from Sino - US talks. 7% are bearish, concerned about the stock market driving up bond interest rates and mean - reversion of interest rates [10]. 1.2 Buyer Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The buyer sentiment index this week is 0.23, unchanged from last week. 42% of institutions are bullish, expecting loose funds and a possible quarter - on - quarter weakening of the economic fundamentals in Q3. 56% are neutral, as the Q2 monetary policy meeting has reduced expectations of broad credit, and the equity market suppresses bond market sentiment. 2% are bearish due to low yields [11][12]. 1.3 Credit Bonds - Market hot - topics include seasonal entry of wealth management funds and expansion of credit ETFs. Seasonal entry of wealth management funds may cause short - term disturbances to the credit market as wealth management scale expands after the quarter - end and institutional allocation power strengthens. The market for credit ETF component bonds is expected to continue [18]. 1.4 Convertible Bonds - Institutions generally hold a neutral - to - bullish view this week. 38% are bullish, noting the relative strength of debt - biased convertible bonds and the catch - up of bottom - position varieties. 62% are neutral, expecting the equity market to strengthen, limited incremental information from the Politburo meeting, and suggesting attention to the central price of convertible bonds [20]. 2. Treasury Futures Tracking 2.1 Futures Trading - Futures prices have all declined. As of June 27, the prices of TS/TF/T/TL contracts are 102.54 yuan, 106.27 yuan, 109.05 yuan, and 120.89 yuan respectively, down 0.002 yuan, 0.01 yuan, 0.11 yuan, and 0.43 yuan from last Friday. - The open interest of futures contracts varies. The open interest of TS/TF/T/TL contracts is 119,000 lots, 166,000 lots, 204,000 lots, and 116,000 lots respectively, with changes of - 183 lots, + 2960 lots, - 8166 lots, and - 318 lots from last Friday. - The trading volume has generally increased. From a 5 - day moving average perspective, the trading volumes of TS/TF/T/TL contracts are 63.7 billion yuan, 59.1 billion yuan, 68.8 billion yuan, and 100.8 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 3.95 billion yuan, + 2.102 billion yuan, + 5.55 billion yuan, and + 21.726 billion yuan from last Friday. - The trading - to - open - interest ratio has generally increased. The trading - to - open - interest ratios of TS/TF/T/TL contracts are 0.27, 0.37, 0.33, and 0.87 respectively, with changes of - 0.01, + 0.003, + 0.02, and + 0.15 from last Friday [24][25]. 2.2 Spot Bond Trading - The turnover rate of 30Y treasury bonds has increased. On June 27, it reached 7.93%, up 3.34 percentage points from last week and 4.35 percentage points from Monday, with a weekly average of 5.18%. - The weekly average turnover rate of interest - rate bonds has increased. On June 27, it was 1.02%, up 0.05 percentage points from last week and 0.06 percentage points from Monday. - The turnover rate of 10Y China Development Bank bonds has decreased. On June 27, it was 4.46%, down 0.91 percentage points from last week and 1.12 percentage points from Monday [32][36]. 2.3 Basis Trading - The basis of TF and TL main contracts has widened, while the rest have narrowed. As of June 27, the basis (CTD) of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts is - 0.06 yuan, - 0.05 yuan, - 0.02 yuan, and + 0.32 yuan respectively, with changes of + 0.02 yuan, - 0.02 yuan, + 0.02 yuan, and + 0.06 yuan from last Friday. - The net basis of the TS main contract has turned from negative to positive, and the rest have narrowed. As of June 27, the net basis (CTD) of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts is - 0.03 yuan, - 0.05 yuan, - 0.04 yuan, and 0.01 yuan respectively, with changes of + 0.07 yuan, + 0.03 yuan, + 0.07 yuan, and + 0.15 yuan from last Friday. - The IRR of the TF main contract has increased, while the rest have decreased. As of June 27, the IRR (CTD) of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts is 1.85%, 1.92%, 1.86%, and 1.66% respectively, with changes of - 0.05%, + 0.08%, - 0.06%, and - 0.26% from last Friday [43][45]. 2.4 Inter - period and Inter - product Spreads - Inter - period spreads have shown mixed trends. As of June 27, the near - month minus far - month spreads of TS/TF/T/TL contracts are - 0.13 yuan, - 0.08 yuan, - 0.01 yuan, and 0.14 yuan respectively, with changes of + 0.02 yuan, - 0.02 yuan, - 0.01 yuan, and - 0.02 yuan from last Friday. - Inter - product spreads have generally widened. As of June 27, 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 4*TS - T, and 3*T - TL are 98.83 yuan, 103.46 yuan, 301.11 yuan, and 206.27 yuan respectively, with changes of + 0.02 yuan, + 0.08 yuan, + 0.11 yuan, and + 0.11 yuan from last Friday [52].

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Overweight [1] Core Views - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 16th with a fluctuation of 3.11% during the week of June 23-27, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.19 percentage points but underperforming the ChiNext Index by 2.59 percentage points [4][22] - The chemical industry is expected to continue its trend of differentiated performance in 2025, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [4] Summary by Sections Industry Review - The chemical sector's performance during the week was characterized by a 3.11% increase, with the top three performing sectors being computer (7.70%), defense industry (6.90%), and non-bank financials (6.66%) [22][23] - The top three gaining stocks in the chemical sector were Dazhongnan (50.00%), Taihe Technology (48.09%), and Tiensheng New Materials (31.41%) [29] Key Industry Dynamics - The ethane export situation has improved, transitioning from a "complete suspension" to "transportable, but not unloading" [1][37] - The upcoming quota policy for refrigerants is expected to lead to a high prosperity cycle for third-generation refrigerants, with companies holding a high quota share likely to benefit significantly [5] - The electronic specialty gases market is characterized by high technical barriers and high added value, presenting significant domestic substitution opportunities [6][8] - The light hydrocarbon chemical trend is becoming global, with a shift towards lighter raw materials for olefin production, which is expected to lead to a revaluation of leading companies in this sector [8] - The COC polymer industry is accelerating its domestic industrialization process, with significant potential for domestic companies to break through and capture market space [9] - The potassium fertilizer market is anticipated to bottom out and recover due to supply-side adjustments and increased demand from farmers [10] - The MDI market is expected to improve due to oligopolistic supply dynamics and stable demand from polyurethane applications [12]

Group 1: Financial Performance - 阳光诺和预计2025年营业收入将较2024年增长不低于10%[1] - 九号公司2025年营业收入预计为2509百万，较2024年增长40%[1] - 牧原股份2025年预计销量高速增长，2025年净利润增速为26%[1] Group 2: Market Trends and Risks - STC007新药研发进展领先，市场空间较大，潜在BD预期将增厚利润[1] - 美团外卖在补贴力度升级下可能受到影响，但长期看具备运营效率优势[1] - 华友钴业受益于刚果金延长出口禁令，钴价有望上涨[1] Group 3: Strategic Developments - 精智达预计2025年半导体设备收入将达到5亿，是2024年的两倍[1] - 阳光电源在全球储能市场具备竞争优势，预计2025年净利润具备高增潜力[1] - 广和通布局具身智能机器人，供货全球头部机器人公司[1]

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to experience increased volatility in July due to external factors, particularly the US "reciprocal tariff" negotiations and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting [2][3][15] - Domestic economic growth is projected to exceed the annual target, with a forecasted growth rate of 5.3% for the first half of the year, driven by improved exports and structural policy support [3][18][21] - The report highlights the potential for a recovery in real estate valuations due to anticipated policy easing, particularly in light of the upcoming Central Political Bureau meeting [9][38][39] Group 2 - The banking and insurance sectors are identified as having high investment value, supported by stable high dividends and the influx of long-term capital [37][40][41] - Key sectors with strong support include rare earth permanent magnets, precious metals, engineering machinery, motorcycles, and agricultural chemical products, which are expected to benefit from global economic conditions and geopolitical factors [9][38] - The report emphasizes the risks associated with the growth technology sector, which has seen significant price increases and is now facing potential valuation corrections [10][39]