Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hangzhou Bank (stock code: 600926) [1] Core Views - Hangzhou Bank continues to show strong profit growth, with a 2024 revenue increase of 9.61% year-on-year and a net profit growth of 18.07% year-on-year. The bank's return on equity (ROE) stands at 16%, reflecting a 0.43 percentage point increase year-on-year [3] - The bank's asset quality remains excellent, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.76% and a provision coverage ratio of 530.07% as of March 2025, indicating strong risk mitigation capabilities [3] - The bank's strategy focuses on expanding its presence in the Yangtze River Delta region, with a clear plan to strengthen corporate finance and enhance retail and small micro-business services [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the bank's revenue reached approximately 38.38 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of 9.61% for 2025 [38] - The net interest income for 2024 was approximately 24.46 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.37% [39] - The bank's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is estimated at 16.98 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 18.07% [38] Asset Quality - As of the end of 2024, the bank's NPL ratio was 0.76%, with a stable level of attention loans at 0.55% [3] - The bank's retail loan risk has slightly increased, with an NPL ratio of 0.77% for retail loans [3] Growth Strategy - The bank is actively expanding in the Yangtze River Delta, leveraging its geographical advantages to enhance its market position [3] - The bank's strategic plan includes strengthening corporate finance and expanding retail and small micro-business services as key growth drivers [3] Valuation Metrics - The projected book value per share (BVPS) for 2025 is 19.54 yuan, with corresponding price-to-book (P/B) ratios of 0.76X for 2025, 0.65X for 2026, and 0.55X for 2027 [3][38]

Economic Indicators - The GDP growth rate is projected to be 1.7% in 2024, with a slight increase to 1.83% in 2025[11] - The GDP growth forecast for 2025 is estimated at 2.38%[11] - The GDP growth rate for 2023 is expected to be around 2.30%[11] Market Trends - The market is expected to experience fluctuations, with a potential decline of 4.0% in Q1 2024[11] - Inflation rates are projected to stabilize around 2.0% in the coming quarters[11] - The unemployment rate is anticipated to remain steady at approximately 4.0%[11] Financial Projections - The interest rate is expected to rise gradually, reaching around 5.6% by the end of 2024[8] - The consumer price index (CPI) is projected to increase by 3.0% in 2024[15] - The overall market sentiment indicates a cautious optimism, with a focus on sustainable growth strategies[12]

Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% during the May FOMC meeting, with limited incremental information provided[2] - The Fed's current stance suggests that rate cuts may not occur in the first half of the year, as they remain data-dependent[2] - The Fed is likely to implement two to three rate cuts in the second half of the year, with the probability of a July cut decreasing[2][4] Inflation and Economic Concerns - The Fed emphasizes the risk of stagflation, with concerns about rising inflation and potential increases in unemployment[5] - Internal divisions within the Fed exist regarding the approach to inflation, with some officials advocating for preemptive rate cuts if hard data deteriorates significantly[5][10] - The inflation target for 2025 is projected to remain between 3.0%-3.5%, which does not hinder the possibility of rate cuts[22] Market Reactions and Predictions - Market expectations indicate three potential rate cuts by 2025, with the first cut anticipated in July[20] - U.S. stock indices rose following the meeting, while U.S. Treasury yields declined, reflecting market relief at the Fed's cautious approach[20] - The dollar index increased to 99.9006, indicating market stability despite uncertainties surrounding tariffs and inflation[20] Economic Data and Labor Market - The labor market remains stable, but there are risks of deterioration that could prompt the Fed to consider rate cuts[14][18] - The Fed's reliance on hard data suggests that any significant economic downturn may not be observed until mid-year or later[12][22] - The ongoing tariff negotiations and fiscal policies are deemed more critical in the short term than immediate Fed actions[15]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating for the company, indicating that the expected performance is within a range of -5% to 5% relative to the benchmark index [12]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 77.77 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 6.22%, and is expected to reach 113.39 billion yuan by 2027, with a growth rate of 11.31% [2][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to grow from 5.98 billion yuan in 2024 to 12.70 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.76% [2][8]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 26.43% in 2024 to 29.18% in 2027, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [2][8]. Financial Summary Income Statement - Revenue is projected to grow from 77.77 billion yuan in 2024 to 113.39 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 6.22%, 14.38%, 14.52%, and 11.31% for the respective years [2][8]. - The net profit is expected to increase from 6.09 billion yuan in 2024 to 12.94 billion yuan in 2027, with profit growth rates of 31.98%, 39.72%, 25.97%, and 20.76% [2][8]. - The EBITDA is forecasted to rise from 10.08 billion yuan in 2024 to 18.80 billion yuan in 2027 [8]. Balance Sheet - Total assets are projected to grow from 152.15 billion yuan in 2024 to 184.22 billion yuan in 2027, while total liabilities are expected to increase from 79.14 billion yuan to 92.39 billion yuan over the same period [7]. - The company's equity attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 71.95 billion yuan in 2024 to 90.18 billion yuan in 2027 [7]. Cash Flow Statement - Operating cash flow is projected to be 14.81 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 17.12 billion yuan by 2027 [7]. - The net increase in cash is expected to be 3.43 billion yuan in 2024, with a gradual decrease to 4.33 billion yuan in 2027 [7]. Key Financial Ratios - The company’s P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 27.91 in 2024 to 13.13 in 2027, indicating a potentially more attractive valuation over time [8]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 8.30% in 2024 to 14.08% in 2027, reflecting better profitability [8].

每日晨报 2025年5月8日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 4 月外汇储备规模环比上升 1.27% www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ● 宏观:货币先行,多箭齐发。从政策要求来看,4月政治局会议要求加紧加快 既定政策的落实落地,一方面再度明确适时降准降息,另一方面财政工具加快 落实发行使用,二季度将迎来政府债供给高峰,货币政策配合的必要性亦进一 步提升。实际上，近年来，每一轮政策放松往往以"货币政策先行"为主要特 征。从上述角度出发,我们认为后续货币政策仍将呈现持续宽松的特征,降准 降息仍有空间。PSL也可能再度重启,新型政策性金融工具也有望适时推出。 0 固收:止盈情绪加剧,债市不空。债市怎么看?5月债市供给量偏高下,资金 面或维持宽松,此外关税压力下外需对宏观经济的实质冲击影响落地,短期债 市不空。考虑到十债收益率目前已接近前期低点,收益率下行最顺畅阶段或已 过去,预计短期债市仍以震荡 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report forecasts the May convertible bond strategy, suggesting a focus on performance as the foundation, with opportunities in oversold targets and terms as the driving forces. It anticipates the end of the phased impact of tariff negatives and advocates for left - side oversold layout under monetary easing. The recommended convertible bond portfolio for May includes Wenshan Convertible Bond, Hongfa Convertible Bond, etc. [3][46] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 April Convertible Bond Market Review 3.1.1 Convertible Bond Market Review: Resilient Against the Underlying Stocks Amid Tariff Games, with Declining Parity but Rising Valuation - In April, the equity market fell 3.2%, and the convertible bond market followed with a 1.3% decline. The convertible bond ETF scale contracted 5.0% to 41.3 billion yuan. The trading activity of the equity - biased market declined, and the convertible bond parity dropped 7.4% to 86.9 yuan, while the 100 - yuan parity premium rate (MA5) rose 2.8pp to 25.3% [3][5][8] 3.1.2 Industry and Style: Media and Agriculture Led the Gains in April, with Medium - priced, Small - cap, and High - rated Styles Outperforming - In April, most industries' convertible bonds declined. Media (2.8%) and agriculture (1.9%) led the gains, while coal (-3.9%) and power equipment (-3.2%) had the largest declines. In terms of style, medium - priced, small - cap, and high - rated convertible bonds were more advantageous [22][25][29] 3.2 May Convertible Bond Market and Strategy Outlook 3.2.1 Convertible Bond Market Outlook: The End of the Phased Impact of Tariff Negatives, Left - side Oversold Layout Under Monetary Easing - In 2024, the performance of convertible bond underlying stocks was generally under pressure, but there was marginal improvement in Q1 2025. Targets with overseas revenue accounting for over 20% were still 3% more oversold than the industry average in April and may have room for repair. About 32% of convertible bonds that entered the call - back progress and 45% that triggered the call - back clause since last year chose to implement the call - back. The central bank announced a 50BP reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10BP interest rate cut on May 7 [35][41][45] 3.2.2 Convertible Bond Strategy Outlook: Performance as the Foundation, Opportunities in Oversold Targets and Terms as the Driving Forces - The strategy combines a 40% base position of broad - based large - cap targets, 30% for oversold repair, and 30% for call - back clause opportunities. The recommended convertible bond portfolio for May includes Wenshan Convertible Bond, Hongfa Convertible Bond, etc. [46][47] 3.3 Quantitative Strategies: Medium - volatility Strategies Outperformed, High - volatility Strategies Underperformed 3.3.1 Low - volatility Strategy: Low - price Enhancement Strategy - The strategy uses the low - price factor and relaxed the overseas revenue ratio constraint after April 22. The performance from April 1 - 30 was 0.01%, outperforming the benchmark by 1.32%. The current holdings and changes compared to the previous period are also provided [52][53][57] 3.3.2 Medium - volatility Strategy: Improved Dual - low Strategy - The strategy selects convertible bonds with relatively low prices and conversion premium rates. The performance in April was 1.28%, outperforming the benchmark by 2.59%. The current holdings and changes are presented [59][62][63] 3.3.3 High - volatility Strategy: High - price and High - elasticity Strategy - The strategy selects high - price and low - premium convertible bonds and balances industry allocation. The performance in April was - 2.20%, underperforming the benchmark by 0.89%. The current holdings and changes are detailed [65][66][70] 3.4 Primary Market Tracking 3.4.1 May Primary Market Issuance - As of May 5, there were no announced convertible bonds pending listing or issuance in May. Convertible bonds listed in April included Zhengfan Convertible Bond, Haohan Convertible Bond, etc. The issuance process of convertible bonds and the list of recently fast - tracked convertible bonds are also provided [72][73][75]

Monetary Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) reduced the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, releasing 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity[2] - The 7-day reverse repurchase rate was lowered by 0.1 percentage points to guide the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) downwards, aiming to reduce financing costs for the real economy[5] - The PBOC increased the quota for technology innovation re-loans from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan, and lowered the interest rate from 1.75% to 1.5%[18] Real Estate Sector Support - The personal housing provident fund loan interest rate was reduced by 0.25 percentage points, with the first home rate dropping from 2.85% to 2.6%, saving residents over 20 billion yuan annually in interest payments[15] - Policies focus on stimulating demand and alleviating risks in the real estate sector, promoting a shift towards a new development model[17] Support for Small and Micro Enterprises - The PBOC increased the quota for re-loans supporting agriculture and small enterprises by 300 billion yuan, bringing the total to 3 trillion yuan[23] - A comprehensive policy package is being developed to support financing for small and private enterprises, enhancing their operational vitality[23] Capital Market Support Policies - The PBOC will optimize two monetary policy tools to support the capital market, merging a total quota of 800 billion yuan for securities and stock repurchase[30] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is revising regulations to support mergers and acquisitions, enhancing the role of capital markets in resource allocation[40] A-Share Market Outlook - As of May 7, the A-share index has increased by 0.50% year-to-date, with the overall market showing resilience despite external pressures[47] - The A-share index's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 18.78, indicating it is at a historical median level, while the price-to-book ratio is at 1.53, suggesting relatively low valuations compared to global markets[47] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include uncertainty regarding domestic policy effectiveness, geopolitical disturbances, and market sentiment instability[54]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking sector [1] Core Viewpoints - The implementation of a comprehensive financial policy package, including a 50 basis points (BP) reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10 BP interest rate reduction, is expected to release liquidity of 1 trillion yuan, positively impacting the banking sector [5][6] - Structural monetary policy tools are being enhanced to support innovation, consumption, and inclusive finance, with specific measures including an increase of 300 billion yuan in re-lending for technological innovation and a 500 billion yuan re-lending for service consumption and elderly care [5][17] - The banking sector is expected to see a gradual improvement in capital replenishment, which will support the implementation of the financial policy package and enhance credit supply and risk management capabilities [25] Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Impact - The central bank's recent actions, including a 50 BP reserve requirement cut and a 10 BP interest rate reduction, are projected to have a manageable overall impact on bank interest margins, with a calculated effect of -3.56 to -3.38 BP on net interest margins [5][6][11] - The average net interest margin for listed banks in Q1 2025 was reported at 1.49%, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 10 BP, but the rate of decline has narrowed compared to previous periods [6][11] Structural Support for Key Sectors - The report highlights the continuous improvement and innovation of structural monetary policy tools, which will guide credit resources towards key sectors and support economic structure upgrades [17][31] - The total quota for structural monetary policy tools is expected to reach 8.3 trillion yuan, a 15.28% increase from previous levels, with significant growth in loans to small and micro enterprises, manufacturing, and technology-driven companies [17] Capital Replenishment and Risk Management - The report indicates that large commercial banks are accelerating their capital replenishment efforts, with a focus on enhancing their core tier one capital adequacy ratios [25][26] - The issuance of special bonds by local governments is identified as a crucial channel for capital replenishment for regional small and medium-sized banks, which are facing increased pressure due to external economic factors [25] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific banks for investment, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398), China Construction Bank (601939), Postal Savings Bank of China (601658), Jiangsu Bank (600919), and Changshu Bank (601128), based on their potential to benefit from the favorable policy environment [5]

下调公积金贷款利率,拟推融资政策 2025 年国新办一揽子金融政策点评 2025 年 5 月 7 日 房地产行业 推荐 维持评级 分析师 胡孝宇 网: huxiaoyu_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130523070001 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-5-6 房地产(申万 40% 20% 资料来源:中国银河证券研究院 行业点评·房地产行业 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 相关研究 1. 【银河地产】行业点评_房地产行业_持续巩固稳 定态势，有力有序推进城改 2. 【银河地产】行业点评_房地产行业_全面发力, 持续推动地产止跌回稳 3. 【银河地产】行业深度_房地产_内生和外生因素 支撑下的需求中枢 4. 【银河地产】行业点评_房地产行业_供需两侧齐 发力,推动地产止跌回稳 5. 【银河地产】行业点评_加快构建新模式,推进地 产新篇章_三中全会专题研究 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 o 事件: 2025年 5月7日,国新办举行新闻发布会,央行、金管局、证监会等 部门负责人介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况, ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is not bearish in the short - term. In May 2025, with a high supply of bonds and a likely loose capital situation, and considering the impact of external demand on the macro - economy under tariff pressure, the bond market is not expected to decline. The central bank's announcements of a 50BP reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10BP interest rate cut on May 7, 2025, are in line with market expectations, with the interest rate cut slightly exceeding expectations. The short - end of the bond market prices in the downward shift of policy interest rates, while the long - end prices in profit - taking and the stock - bond seesaw effect [2]. - The implementation of policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and the promotion of science and technology innovation bonds is expected to have a positive impact on the bond market and the real economy. Reserve requirement ratio cuts can provide long - term liquidity, stabilize bank net interest margins, and promote credit expansion. Interest rate cuts support employment, enterprises, the market, and expectations. The development of science and technology innovation bonds will help accelerate scientific and technological innovation and attract more funds into the bond market [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Monetary Policy - **Reserve Requirement Ratio Cut**: A 0.5 - percentage - point reserve requirement ratio cut will provide 1 trillion yuan in liquidity. The reserve requirement ratio for auto finance will be reduced from 5% to 0%. This can release low - cost long - term funds, stabilize bank net interest margins, and guide banks to increase credit supply [2]. - **Interest Rate Cut**: The 7 - day OMO rate will be cut by 10BP to 1.4%, and it is expected to drive a 10BP decline in LPR. The central bank will also lower the re - lending rate and the provident fund lending rate, reflecting a "moderately loose" monetary policy stance [2]. - **Structural Monetary Policy Tools**: The interest rate of structural monetary policy tools will be cut by 0.25 percentage points, from 1.75% to 1.5%. The PSL rate for policy - based financial institutions will be cut from 2.25% to 2%. A 500 - billion - yuan service consumption and elderly care special re - lending facility will be established. The quota for science and technology innovation and technological transformation re - lending will be increased from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan, and the quota for agricultural and small - business re - lending will be increased by 300 billion yuan [2]. - **Reasons for Reserve Requirement Ratio and Interest Rate Cuts**: The central bank's goal of stabilizing the exchange rate has been achieved in the short - term. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate has returned to 7.2 since late April. Fundamental pressures may gradually emerge, with the impact of tariff policies on external demand and the economy likely to show in Q2, as indicated by the decline of the PMI in April. Tariffs have entered the substantive negotiation stage, and the central bank is taking preemptive policy actions to deal with potential market fluctuations [2]. Science and Technology Innovation Bond Risk - Sharing Tools - The central bank has promoted the development of science and technology innovation bonds. Financial institutions, science and technology enterprises, and private equity investment institutions are supported to issue such bonds. The relevant policies and preparations for the "science and technology board" of the bond market are basically completed. Nearly 500 market institutions plan to issue over 300 billion yuan of science and technology innovation bonds. This is an effective follow - up to the Politburo meeting in April and is expected to boost scientific and technological innovation and attract more funds into the bond market [2]. Outlook on the Bond Market - In May, with a high supply of bonds, the capital situation is likely to remain loose. Considering the impact of external demand on the macro - economy under tariff pressure, the bond market is not bearish in the short - term. After the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, the short - end bond yields usually decline by 1 - 4BP on the next trading day, and then may rise in 5 - 10 trading days. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and investors can consider trading on dips and pay attention to ultra - long - term bonds and short - duration assets [2].