固收研究报告 证券 CGS 地产销售同比回落,生产端 一级市场发行情况:利率债发行方面,本周发行规模整体回升,发行国债 4350 亿元、地方债 2006.2 亿元，同业存单 7099.5 亿元，国债、地方债、存单发行 规模较上周分别变化 1078.4 亿元、-13.2 亿元、812.2 亿元;按新增专项债和 新增一般债额度分别为 4.4 万亿元和 0.8 万亿元计算,本周地方债整体发行进 度达到 26.1%,新增专项债和新增一般债发行进度分别为 24.2%、36.8%。 二级市场利率表现:截至 4/20,本周 10Y-1Y 期限利差较上周回落 3.97BP, 国债收益率曲线较上周整体走平;1Y 国债收益率较上周上行 3.22BP 收于 1.43%, 10Y 国债收益率较上周下行 0.75BP 收于 1.65%。 公开市场操作及下周重要数据:本周央行通过公开市场操作净投放 2338 亿 元;截止 4/20,下周地方政府债发行规模为 1812.37 亿元,逆回购到期 8080 亿元;下周主要关注将公布的贷款市场报价利率(LPR)与 3 月服务贸易差 额。 分析师 经济数据与利率市场表现追踪（2025/4/14-2 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a neutral investment rating to the company, indicating a performance expectation within a range of -5% to 5% relative to the benchmark index [12]. Core Insights - The company is projected to experience significant revenue growth, with estimated revenues increasing from 4,837.84 million yuan in 2024 to 8,688.17 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 19.52% [6][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 181.96 million yuan in 2024 to 760.20 million yuan in 2027, showcasing a robust growth trajectory with a profit growth rate of 50.64% in 2027 [6][8]. - The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 13.83% in 2024 to 18.71% in 2027, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [6][8]. Financial Forecast Summary Income Statement - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 4,837.84 million yuan in 2024 to 8,688.17 million yuan in 2027, with a revenue growth rate of 26.99% in 2025 [6][8]. - The operating profit is projected to increase significantly, reaching 881.27 million yuan by 2027, with a notable recovery from a decline of 38.19% in 2024 to an increase of 82.80% in 2025 [8]. - The net profit margin is expected to rise from 3.76% in 2024 to 8.75% in 2027, reflecting improved profitability [8]. Balance Sheet - Total assets are expected to grow from 9,413.50 million yuan in 2024 to 12,927.81 million yuan in 2027, indicating a healthy expansion of the company's asset base [7]. - The company's total liabilities are projected to increase from 4,920.06 million yuan in 2024 to 7,296.35 million yuan in 2027, with a stable debt management strategy [7]. Cash Flow Statement - The operating cash flow is forecasted to turn positive by 2025, reaching 67.12 million yuan, after a negative cash flow of -380.04 million yuan in 2024 [7]. - The net cash increase is expected to stabilize, with a projected decrease of -256.37 million yuan by 2027, indicating improved cash management [7].

外需环比下滑,期待新一轮增量政策 宏观周报（4 月 14-18 日） 2025 年 4 月 20 日 分析师 张迪 ☎： 010-8092-7737 网: zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 詹璐 ☎：0755-8345-3719 z: zhanlu @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522110001 聂天奇 ☎： 010-8092-7737 @: nietianqi_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524090001 吕雷 ☎：010-8092-7780 ☑: lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080002 赵红蕾 ☎：010-8092-7606 网: zhaohonglei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060005 于金潼 ☎：186-5320-7096 网: yujintong_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080003 研究助 ...

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Key Points - The report highlights that China's GDP for Q1 2025 reached 318,758 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2%. The industrial sector grew by 6.3%, significantly contributing to GDP growth, while the information transmission, software, and IT services sectors saw a remarkable growth of 10.3% [2][4][12] - The report indicates that the real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with new residential sales area declining by only 3.0% year-on-year in the first three months of 2025, a smaller drop compared to previous months. The sales value also decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, reflecting a narrowing decline [5][10] - The report notes that the U.S. retail sales in March increased by 1.4%, marking the largest growth since January 2023, while initial jobless claims were at 215,000, indicating a tight labor market. However, concerns about future economic growth persist due to rising costs and policy uncertainties [15][16] - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.30% during the week, while the technology index fell by 0.27%. The financial, materials, and comprehensive sectors led the gains, with increases of 4.39%, 4.34%, and 4.07% respectively [16][19] - The report suggests that the current valuation of the Hong Kong stock market is at a historically low level, with the Hang Seng Index's PE and PB ratios at 9.6 times and 1.02 times, respectively. This indicates potential investment value, particularly in sectors with lower trade dependency and higher dividend yields, such as finance, energy, and utilities [29][38][49]

策略研究 · 周度报告 A 股震荡蓄势,聚焦业绩线索 核心观点: 分析师 杨超 ☎：010-8092-7696 网: yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030004 研究助理:王雪莹 相关研究 2025-04-08, 中国版平准基金横空出世提振市场信 心 2025-04-08, 汇金入市,坚定看多 2025-04-03，"对等关税"冲击市场配置预期 2025-04-03, 港股 2025 年二季度投资展望: 从估值 修复到盈利兑现 2025-04-02，2025年二季度 A 股投资展望：风格切 换,均衡配置 2025-03-22，港股市场 2025 年以来行情拆解 2025-03-21，"东升西落"核心假设有哪些? 2025-03-17, 消费潜力释放指引投资方向 -- 《提振 消费专项行动方案》解读 2025-03-09，中国股市叙事：估值正悄然重构 2025-03-05,对A 股市场投资的启示:2025年政府 工作报告释放哪些重要信号? 2025-02-21，南向资金与国际资金结构同频还是分 肢3 2025-02-19，DeepSeek 冲击波：A ...

策略研究 · 周度报告 2025 年 04 月 20 日 核心观点: 分析师 杨超 ☎：010-8092-7696 网: yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030004 研究助理:周美丽 相关研究 2025-04-08, 汇金入市,坚定看多 2025-04-02, 2025年二季度 A 股投资展望: 风格切换, 均衡配置 2025-03-23，港股市场 2025 年以来行情拆解 2025-02-21, 南向资金与国际资金结构同频还是分歧? 2025-02-13，地方两会对 A 股投资结构有哪些启示? 2025-02-04，春节假期热点跟踪：海外市场多变局，国 内消费掀热潮 2024-12-31, 2024年全球大类资产投资展望: 变局·择 机 2024-12-27, 2025年港股投资展望:潮涌·博弈 2024-12-26，2025年 A 股市场投资展望：重构·聚势 2024-12-19，美联储 12 月议息会议点评报告：美联储 传递节奏更换的渐进式降息信号 2024-12-13，中央经济工作会议对投资的启示 2024-11-19, 央国企改革助推市场 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for the company, Changying Tong (688143.SH) [1][26]. Core Views - The company has shown significant revenue growth, achieving 331 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 50.22%, driven by increased orders from key military clients and improved delivery of optical fiber devices [3][12]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the optical fiber ring segment and is actively expanding into the optical communication field, aiming to diversify its market reliance and enhance performance through strategic acquisitions [11][26]. - The financial forecasts indicate a strong growth trajectory, with projected net profits of 73 million yuan, 112 million yuan, and 147 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside a significant increase in earnings per share [4][27]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Changying Tong specializes in the research, production, and sales of optical fiber gyroscope core components and solutions, recognized as a national-level "little giant" enterprise [5][10]. - The company has developed a comprehensive industry strategy that includes optical devices, specialty optical fibers, new materials, and related services, forming an integrated micro-industry chain [5][9]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 331 million yuan, with a net profit of 18 million yuan, marking a 15.28% increase year-on-year [3][12]. - The gross margin was reported at 44.5%, reflecting a decrease of 7.8 percentage points compared to the previous year, influenced by rising accounts receivable and increased credit impairment losses [3][12]. - The company has effectively managed its expense ratios, with a total expense ratio of 36.5%, down 14.6 percentage points year-on-year [17][12]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from optical fiber ring devices reached 124 million yuan, up 69.1% year-on-year, with a stable gross margin of 45.5% [22]. - Specialty optical fiber revenue was 71 million yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.8%, but with a reduced gross margin of 80.2% due to price reductions [22]. - New materials generated 24 million yuan in revenue, with a gross margin of 21.9%, reflecting a significant decline due to lower margins on new products [22]. - The company also saw substantial growth in other business segments, including optical device equipment, which increased by 102.5% year-on-year [22]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with revenue forecasts of 535 million yuan, 746 million yuan, and 928 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][27]. - The projected earnings per share for the same period are 0.60 yuan, 0.92 yuan, and 1.20 yuan, indicating a strong potential for profitability [4][27]. - The company is also pursuing strategic acquisitions to enhance its technological capabilities and market reach, particularly in the optical communication sector [11][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains the investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is projected to experience a slight decline in revenue in 2025, with an estimated revenue of 4438.51 million yuan, down from 4471.20 million yuan in 2024, representing a decrease of 0.73% [4][7] - Net profit is expected to increase slightly to 1216.83 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 1.87% compared to 1194.45 million yuan in 2024 [4][7] - The gross margin is forecasted to remain stable at around 65.61% in 2025, slightly up from 65.41% in 2024 [4][7] - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth in 2026 and 2027, with projected increases of 14.45% and 12.16%, respectively [4][7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 4471.20 million yuan in 2024, 4438.51 million yuan in 2025, 5079.98 million yuan in 2026, and 5697.50 million yuan in 2027 [4][7] - The net profit forecast shows a gradual increase from 1194.45 million yuan in 2024 to 1610.93 million yuan in 2027 [4][7] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 2.09 yuan in 2024 to 2.82 yuan in 2027 [4][7] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 20.02 in 2024 to 14.84 in 2027, indicating potential valuation improvement [4][7] Balance Sheet Overview - Total assets are expected to grow from 11875.07 million yuan in 2024 to 13594.79 million yuan in 2027 [6][7] - Current assets are projected to increase from 6542.77 million yuan in 2024 to 9562.75 million yuan in 2027 [6][7] - The company's total liabilities are forecasted to decrease from 3183.27 million yuan in 2024 to 3211.52 million yuan in 2027, indicating improved financial stability [6][7] Cash Flow Analysis - Operating cash flow is expected to rise from 1309.28 million yuan in 2024 to 2053.43 million yuan in 2027 [6][7] - The net cash increase is projected to turn positive in 2025, with an expected increase of 497.15 million yuan [6][7] - The company is anticipated to maintain a healthy cash flow position, with significant cash reserves growing from 465.37 million yuan in 2024 to 3129.50 million yuan in 2027 [6][7]

Group 1: Consumer Sector - The retail sales improved steadily in March, benefiting from consumption stimulus policies, with a year-on-year growth of 4.7% in Q1 2024 and 4.6% in Q1 2025 [2][3] - The government allocated special bonds of 150 billion yuan for consumer subsidies in 2024 and 300 billion yuan in 2025, enhancing the stimulus effect on consumption [2] - Specific sectors such as communication equipment, furniture, and home appliances saw significant growth due to the "trade-in" subsidy policy, with retail sales growth rates of 26.9% and 18.1% respectively in early 2025 [3][4] Group 2: Environmental and Utility Sector - The new coal power upgrade plan aims to enhance coal power adjustment capabilities and accelerate the revaluation of the sector, with a focus on clean carbon reduction and efficient operation [12][13] - The plan includes specific technical requirements for existing and new coal power units, aiming for a reduction in carbon emissions by 10-20% compared to 2024 levels [13][14] - Upgraded coal power units are expected to gain excess returns in the electricity market through improved adjustment capabilities and participation in carbon trading [14][15] Group 3: Technology Sector - The ongoing tariff friction is expected to create opportunities for domestic technology sectors, particularly in the context of the "self-reliance" strategy, with significant growth anticipated in 2025 [17][22] - The dual drive of government and industry initiatives in the technology sector is expected to accelerate the domestic market's growth, with key industries like finance and telecommunications leading the way [18][22] - The technology sector is projected to experience a "Davis Double-Click" effect, driven by both internal demand and external pressures, opening up vast market opportunities [22][24] Group 4: Military Industry - The military industry is expected to benefit from the push for self-reliance, with significant investment opportunities arising from the domestic demand for military technology and components [24][26] - The upcoming 80th anniversary of the victory in the Anti-Japanese War is anticipated to act as a catalyst for the military sector, with increased focus on capital operations and mergers [26] - The military sector is seeing improved order visibility, with a shift from expectations to reality, indicating a strong outlook for the coming quarters [26] Group 5: Beverage Sector - The company reported a revenue of 4.85 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 39.2%, driven by strong terminal sales and network expansion [28][29] - The gross profit margin improved to 44.5%, supported by scale advantages and effective management, despite increased market competition [30][31] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory in the beverage sector, particularly in functional drinks and overseas markets [31][38] Group 6: Construction Materials Sector - The company achieved a revenue of 6.267 billion yuan in 2024, with a focus on enhancing retail market share despite a challenging industry environment [33][34] - The core business of PPR pipes showed stable performance, while the company expanded into new business areas, contributing to overall growth [35][38] - The company is positioned to benefit from the transition of the real estate market towards a focus on existing stock, enhancing its retail channel effectiveness [38]