Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Funeng Power (600483 SH) [3] Core Views - Q3 2024 results slightly below expectations with revenue of RMB 3 82 billion (-4 13% YoY) and net profit of RMB 585 million (-16 6% YoY) [3] - Power generation declined 3 51% YoY in Q3 2024 mainly due to coal-fired unit maintenance offsetting benefits from lower coal costs [3] - Newly approved offshore wind projects totaling 660MW with good wind resources expected to start operation by end-2026 [3] - Fujian province expected to accelerate offshore wind approvals with more reasonable pricing mechanisms improving project returns [3] Financial Performance - 2024-2026 net profit forecasts maintained at RMB 2 988 billion RMB 3 145 billion and RMB 3 47 billion respectively [3] - 2024-2026 EPS projected at RMB 1 12 RMB 1 18 and RMB 1 30 with PE ratios of 8x 8x and 7x [3][4] - 2024-2026 revenue growth rates forecast at -0 91% 3 23% and 5 23% respectively [4] - ROE expected to remain stable around 12% from 2024-2026 [4] Project Development - Total approved thermal power capacity reaches 2 62GW including newly approved Quanhui Phase II project [3] - Offshore wind projects under construction through joint ventures total 900MW with 500MW already operational [3] - Offshore wind turbine prices have dropped to RMB 3 680 kW nearly half of 2021 peak levels [3] Industry Outlook - Fujian province plans to add 10 3GW of offshore wind capacity during 14th Five-Year Plan period [3] - Offshore wind approval process expected to accelerate in 2024-2025 with more reasonable pricing mechanisms [3] - Fujian's offshore wind resources ranked first in China supporting higher project returns [3]

证券研究报告 电力设备 | 其他电源设备Ⅱ 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2024 年 11 月 02 日 | --- | |-------------------------------------| | | | 证券分析师 | | 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 | | zhahao@huayuanstock.com | | 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 | | liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 戴映炘 | | SAC：S1350524080002 | | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------|---------------------| | 基本数据 | 2024 年 11 月 01 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 15.35 | | 一 年 内 最 高 / 最 低 （元） | 19.07/12.26 | | 总市值（百万元） | 47,853.62 | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | 36,276.72 | | 总股本（百万股） | 3,117.50 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for New Oriental (EDU N) [2] Core Views - New Oriental's FY25Q1 revenue reached $1 44 billion, a year-over-year increase of 30 5%, with Non-GAAP net income attributable to shareholders at $265 million, up 39 8% year-over-year [1] - The company's core education business operating margin improved to 23 7%, a 370bps increase year-over-year, while the Non-GAAP operating margin stood at 24 4%, up 220bps [2] - New Oriental's education new business revenue grew by 49 8% year-over-year, with non-academic class enrollments reaching 484,000, a 10 5% increase [3] - The company's overseas test preparation and study abroad consulting businesses saw revenue growth of 18 8% and 20 7% respectively, while adult and college domestic test preparation business revenue increased by 30 4% [3] Business Performance - New Oriental's total number of schools and learning centers increased to 1,089, with 64 new learning centers added in the quarter [2] - The company's active paying users for its intelligent learning system reached 323,000, a 78 5% year-over-year increase [2] - New Oriental's cash and cash equivalents balance stood at $1 15 billion, supporting the company's expansion in the education business [2] Financial Projections - The report forecasts adjusted net income attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 at $502 million, $642 million, and $740 million, representing year-over-year growth rates of 31 8%, 27 9%, and 15 3% respectively [3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are $5 33 billion, $6 49 billion, and $7 40 billion, with year-over-year growth rates of 23 6%, 21 7%, and 14 1% [4] - The company's PE ratios for 2025-2027 are projected at 20x, 16x, and 14x respectively [3] Industry Analysis - The education industry continues to show strong demand, particularly in the non-academic and test preparation segments [3] - New Oriental's multi-line strategy post the "Double Reduction" policy has entered a new growth cycle, with stable market share and continuous growth in new store openings [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that supply tightness supports freight rates, while long-distance cost increases and tax burdens are dragging down profits [1] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2022: 18,657.84 million RMB - 2023: 22,090.52 million RMB (growth of 18.40%) - 2024E: 24,414.86 million RMB (growth of 10.52%) - 2025E: 26,663.67 million RMB (growth of 9.21%) - 2026E: 28,742.56 million RMB (growth of 7.80%) [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected as: - 2022: 1,457.33 million RMB - 2023: 3,350.58 million RMB (growth of 129.29%) - 2024E: 4,603.98 million RMB (growth of 37.41%) - 2025E: 6,009.56 million RMB (growth of 30.53%) - 2026E: 7,134.69 million RMB (growth of 18.72%) [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecast: - 2023: 0.70 RMB - 2024E: 0.97 RMB - 2025E: 1.26 RMB - 2026E: 1.50 RMB [2] Financial Ratios - Return on Equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 9.74% in 2023 to 14.90% in 2026 [2] - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 18.64 in 2023 to 8.75 in 2026 [2] Balance Sheet Overview - Total assets are projected to grow from 72,083.61 million RMB in 2023 to 85,411.75 million RMB in 2026 [3] - Total liabilities are expected to remain stable around 34,980.29 million RMB in 2023, decreasing slightly to 33,558.42 million RMB by 2026 [3] Cash Flow Analysis - Operating cash flow is projected to increase from 8,822.16 million RMB in 2023 to 11,029.02 million RMB in 2026 [3] - Net cash flow is expected to turn positive by 2026, reaching 3,015.40 million RMB [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 944 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.78%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 24.48% to 109 million yuan [1] - The revenue for the third quarter was 314 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 6.31%, with a net profit of approximately 35.06 million yuan, down 7.90% year-on-year [1] - The decline in revenue is attributed to fewer new orders signed in 2023 and disruptions in the confirmation of major projects, but a recovery in revenue is expected in the fourth quarter due to a significant increase in new orders in the first half of the year [1] - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 34.49%, an increase of 1.29 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin for the third quarter was 30.61%, up 0.96 percentage points year-on-year but down 5.06 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company's expense ratio increased due to information technology investments and foreign exchange losses, with a total expense ratio of 20.13% for the first three quarters, up 5.11 percentage points year-on-year [1] Financial Summary - The company expects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 205 million yuan, 269 million yuan, and 348 million yuan, respectively, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23, 17, and 14 times based on the stock price as of November 1 [2] - The revenue forecast for 2024 is 1,639 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 28.33% [4] - The company's total market capitalization is approximately 4,748.10 million yuan, with a closing price of 19.32 yuan per share [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company reported a year-on-year increase in profit for Q3, with gross margin continuing to improve. The gross margin for the first three quarters was 49.8%, 51.6%, and 53% respectively, showing a year-on-year change of -1.3, +12.1, and +9.4 percentage points [2] - The company is expected to focus on core products and self-manufactured products, with a rich product pipeline and potential for rapid improvement in profitability [3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.25 billion yuan (up 5.9% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 250 million yuan (up 4.1% year-on-year) [1] - The quarterly revenue for Q1 to Q3 was 810 million, 750 million, and 690 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -5.6%, +13.2%, and +14.1% respectively [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 to Q3 was 100 million, 80 million, and 70 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -24.8%, +30.1%, and +55.5% respectively [1] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 380 million, 470 million, and 570 million yuan, with growth rates of 50.1%, 22.5%, and 22.3% respectively [3] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 21X, 17X, and 14X respectively [3] Market Performance - As of November 1, 2024, the closing price of the stock was 37.80 yuan, with a one-year high of 47.50 yuan and a low of 25.50 yuan [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2024 met expectations, with a revenue of 133.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.79%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.191 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 63.41% [3] - The decline in revenue is attributed to the impact of new energy pricing in the market, while the significant increase in net profit is mainly due to one-time investment income from the transfer of assets in the second quarter [3][4] - The company is positioned as a key player in the conventional energy integration platform of the State Power Investment Corporation, with plans to add 35 GW of new energy capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan [5] Financial Summary - As of November 1, 2024, the company's closing price is 4.88 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 87,037.82 million yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 72.73% [2] - The company expects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 9.122 billion yuan, 6.661 billion yuan, and 6.930 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 62.65%, -26.98%, and 4.03% [5][6] - The projected P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 10, 13, and 13 times respectively [5] Operational Performance - As of September 2024, the company has a total installed capacity of 108.06 million kilowatts, with significant contributions from thermal, hydropower, wind, and solar energy [4] - In the third quarter, the company achieved an on-grid electricity volume of 126.7 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, primarily driven by growth in solar capacity [4] - The average on-grid electricity price in the third quarter was 0.4105 yuan per kWh, showing a slight decline of approximately 0.3 cents per kWh compared to the previous year [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 exceeded expectations, driven by improved electricity generation due to favorable wind conditions, with a significant recovery anticipated for the full year if the trend continues [1][3] - The company has successfully divested from thermal power assets, with investment income for the first three quarters reaching 674 million, a year-on-year increase of 6316.47%, primarily from the disposal of equity in Jiangyin Sulong Thermal Power [3] - The company is positioned as a leader in the green energy sector, with a strong focus on wind and solar power, and is expected to benefit from the injection of additional renewable energy assets from its controlling shareholder [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 26.35 billion, a year-on-year decline of 6.39%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.475 billion, down 10.61% [1] - In Q3 alone, revenue was 7.467 billion, a decrease of 9.87%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 41.58% to 1.648 billion [1] - The company's electricity generation in Q3 increased by 6.39% year-on-year, showing a significant recovery compared to Q2 [1] Market Position and Future Outlook - The company has a dominant position in wind power, with a total installed capacity of 28.38 GW in wind energy and 7.97 GW in other renewable sources as of September 2024 [3] - The controlling shareholder has approximately 40 GW of unlisted renewable energy assets, which are expected to be injected into the company, enhancing its market position [3] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 5.934 billion, 6.853 billion, and 7.310 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9, 8, and 7 [3][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance was impacted by asset impairment and non-operating expenses, but its core business operations remained stable and slightly exceeded market expectations [3] - The company's coal power profit per kWh reached 3.1 cents in Q3, and its balance sheet continues to improve [4] - The company is a leader in both coal and green energy, and its performance serves as a barometer for the industry, benefiting from ongoing power system reforms [5] Financial Performance - In Q3, the company's total online electricity generation was 130.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 3.43%, with coal, gas, wind, and solar power generation at 107.7, 8.8, 8.0, and 5.7 billion kWh respectively [1] - The average on-grid electricity price for the first three quarters was 496.27 yuan/MWh, a year-on-year decrease of 2.63% [1] - The company's Q3 revenue was 65.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.46%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.959 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 52.69% [3] - The company's total installed capacity reached 140.71 GW by the end of September 2024, with coal, gas, wind, and solar power accounting for 93.14, 13.29, 16.93, and 16.85 GW respectively [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 11.0, 12.6, and 13.7 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 30%, 15%, and 8% respectively [6] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 14, 11, and 10 times for 2024-2026 [6] - The dividend yield is expected to be 3.7% for 2024, based on a 50% payout ratio of net profit attributable to shareholders (excluding perpetual bond interest) [6] Industry and Strategy - The company aims to achieve a 45% clean energy installed capacity ratio by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, requiring over 20 GW of new energy capacity to be added by 2025 [5] - The company plans to invest in 2*1,000 MW coal power units in Yunnan, holding a 51% stake, indicating potential growth in coal power profitability [4] - The company's green energy business faces profit pressure due to marketization and curtailment issues, but it is expected to benefit from environmental value enhancement [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shenzhen Gas (601139.SH) is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Views - The third quarter performance was under pressure, with total revenue for the first three quarters at 20.739 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 10.58%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.056 billion yuan, down 4.5% year-on-year [1] - The decrease in performance is primarily attributed to reduced profits from comprehensive energy and smart services [1] - Pipeline natural gas sales volume growth has slowed, mainly due to a decline in sales outside the Greater Bay Area, although sales to power plants showed strong growth [2] - The company expects continued improvement in expenses, which could provide some support to performance [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3, revenue was 6.960 billion yuan, down 12.68% year-on-year, and net profit was 318 million yuan, down 30.34% year-on-year [1] - For the first three quarters, pipeline gas sales volume was 3.827 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 4.91%, but slower than the first half's growth of 6.87% [2] - The comprehensive energy sector's poor performance is linked to an 18% decline in photovoltaic EVA film prices, impacting gross margins and profits [2] Expense Management - Total sales, management, R&D, and financial expenses decreased by approximately 135 million yuan year-on-year in the first three quarters, with Q3 financial expenses down 45 million yuan and R&D expenses down 48 million yuan [3] - The low interest rate environment is expected to support continued improvement in expenses [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 1.413 billion, 1.713 billion, and 1.875 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -1.85%, 21.23%, and 9.44% respectively [3] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 15, 12, and 11 times for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3]