Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yunlu Co., Ltd. (688190.SH) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 met expectations, with a revenue of 1.388 billion yuan (up 6.5% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 263 million yuan (up 10.3% year-on-year) [1] - The new production line for amorphous materials, which reached full capacity in August, is expected to contribute to growth [2] - The demand for amorphous materials is driven by favorable policies and high growth in industries such as power distribution, photovoltaics, data centers, rail transportation, new energy vehicles, and home appliances [2] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.388 billion yuan, with a net profit of 263 million yuan and a non-recurring net profit of 252 million yuan [1] - In Q3 alone, the revenue was 478 million yuan (up 5% year-on-year and up 2.1% quarter-on-quarter), with a net profit of 96 million yuan (up 29.7% year-on-year and up 5% quarter-on-quarter) [1] - The company forecasts net profits of 365 million yuan, 422 million yuan, and 503 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.07%, 15.34%, and 19.42% [3][4] Market Outlook - The amorphous alloy sector is expected to benefit from the favorable market conditions for distribution transformers, while the nano-crystalline alloy and soft magnetic powder core segments are anticipated to open new growth avenues [3] - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic amorphous alloy market, benefiting from the increasing demand in various sectors [3] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 27, 24, and 20 respectively [3] - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 1.855 billion yuan in 2024 to 2.377 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 4.70%, 14.14%, and 12.24% [4][8]

证券研究报告 固收点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2024 年 11 月 04 日 经济企稳的可能性上升 ——10 月 PMI 数据点评 投资要点： 制造业 PMI 改善。10 月制造业 PMI 时隔 6 个月重回荣枯线以上至 50.1%，较上月 上升 0.3 个百分点，主要分类指数均有所改善。其中，生产指数、新订单指数创近 6 个月新高，分别提升至 52.0%和 50.0%。原材料库存指数提升至 48.2%，为近一年 来高点；从业人员指数略微增长至 48.40%，为自 2023 年 5 月以来最高值。受近期 部分大宗商品涨价等影响，主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数明显上升。大 型企业 PMI 指数改善，但小型企业 PMI 指数有所恶化。 联系人 非制造业 PMI 表现分化。10 月份非制造业商务活动指数为 50.2%，比上月上升 0.2pct，非制造业景气水平小幅回升。非制造业价格端和需求端上升更为明显，投入 品价格和销售价格指数均上升 2.4pct 分别至 50.6%和 48.50%；分行业看，建筑业 商务活动指数略降，服务业商务活动指数微升。 10 月份综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.8%，较上 ...

证券研究报告 为 189.5 点；油轮/气体船船价指数环比持平；散货船船价指数下降 1.1%。当 月集装箱船价指数环比持平，为 117.4 点。 快递物流： 1）顺丰 Q3 利润率再度提升，通达系 Q3 业绩稳健增长。顺丰控股 2024 年 Q3 归母净利润为 28.1 亿元，同比+34.6%，归母净利率为 3.9%，同比+0.6 个百分 点；2024 年 Q3 公司速运物流收入同比+7.6%，与 H1 基本持平，供应链及国 际收入同比+27.22%，高于 H1 的 8.1%；成本管控或延续 Q2 以来的超预期表 现，坚持精益化资源规划与成本管控，有效带动利润率改善。通达系圆通、韵 达、申通 2024 年 Q3 归母净利润分别为 9.4 亿、3.7 亿、2.1 亿，分别同比增长 18%、24%、7761%；单票净利润分别为 0.14 元、0.06 元、0.04 元，分别环 比-0.02 元、-0.04 元、-0.01 元，2024 年 Q3 各家量增速均超行业，但淡季及 价格竞争导致单票利润下滑，总体实现利润稳健增长。 2）化工物流 Q3 业绩综述：化工需求疲软，静待行业景气修复。1）密尔克卫 Q3 实现营业 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of renewable energy substitution as a key approach to achieving carbon peak goals, highlighting various sectors such as metallurgy and public buildings for electric energy replacement [3][4] - The guidance issued by the National Energy Administration aims to significantly increase renewable energy consumption, projecting consumption levels of 1.1 billion tons in 2025 and 1.5 billion tons in 2030, which is an increase of 100 million tons from previous plans [2][3] - The report identifies investment opportunities in green electricity operators and green hydrogen sectors, recommending specific companies for investment [4] Summary by Sections Renewable Energy Consumption Goals - The report outlines that renewable energy consumption is expected to reach 1.1 billion tons by 2025 and 1.5 billion tons by 2030, with a projected share of about 25% of total energy consumption by 2030 [2][3] Key Investment Opportunities - Focus on green electricity operators, with recommendations for companies such as Longyuan Power, Datang Renewable, and China Power, which are expected to benefit from the green certificate and carbon market mechanisms [4] - Attention is also drawn to the green hydrogen and electric energy substitution sectors, with suggested companies including Dongfang Electric and Huaguang Huaneng [4] Mechanisms for Promoting Renewable Energy - The report discusses the establishment of a green certificate system to facilitate renewable energy consumption and its integration with the national carbon market, which is expected to drive the underlying demand for renewable energy [3][4] - Encouragement of integrated projects that combine renewable energy generation, storage, and consumption to enhance local utilization of renewable resources [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Nuclear Power (601985.SH) is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 met expectations, with a revenue of 19.545 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.25%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.052 billion yuan, down 7.1% year-on-year [3] - The decline in nuclear power generation was primarily due to unexpected maintenance at the Fuqing Nuclear Power Plant, while renewable energy generation saw a significant increase of 48.2% year-on-year [3] - The company has completed 80.5% of its renewable energy installation plan, with a total installed capacity of 24.15 million kilowatts as of September 2024 [3] - The company has 18 nuclear power units under construction or planned, ensuring stable long-term growth in installed capacity [3] - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, announcing a three-year dividend plan and a special dividend proposal [3] Financial Summary - For 2024-2026, the forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders is 10.97 billion, 11.53 billion, and 11.97 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.2%, 5.2%, and 3.8% respectively [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 17, 17, and 16 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [3] - The projected dividend yield for 2024-2026 is 2.0%, 2.1%, and 2.1% respectively, based on a historical dividend payout ratio of 35% [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 met expectations, with a revenue of 9.586 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 11.49%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 895 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.41% [3] - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to the contraction of low-margin new energy integration business, which saw a revenue of 999 million yuan in H1 2024 [3] - The overall gross margin for Q3 2024 reached 24.52%, the highest quarterly value in recent years, due to the low-margin business contraction [3] - The company is expected to see concentrated deliveries in the DC transmission sector over the next year, with significant projects already underway [5] - The company has secured contracts worth 1.55 billion yuan in 2023 for ultra-high voltage projects, which will support future revenue growth [5] - The forecasted net profits for 2024-2026 are 1.19 billion, 1.61 billion, and 1.81 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 18.2%, 35.8%, and 12.3% [5] Financial Summary - As of November 1, 2024, the closing price of the stock is 31.01 yuan, with a market capitalization of 31.595 billion yuan [2] - The company reported a total asset-liability ratio of 47.18% and a net asset value per share of 11.13 yuan [2] - The projected revenue for 2024 is 16.692 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -2.16% [6] - The projected net profit for 2024 is 1.188 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.16% [6] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve to 20.09% in 2024, with a net profit margin of 8.62% [8]

证券研究报告 雪峰科技、中国核建、上海港湾、海鸥股份。 风险提示：经济恢复不及预期，化债力度不及预期，房地产政策不及预期 建筑材料 行业定期报告 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 王彬鹏 SAC：S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 郦悦轩 SAC：S1350524080001 liyuexuan@huayuanstock.com 证券分析师 此轮化债也许不一样，房地产链或被动见底，预期差大。924 政策拐点以来，市 场对顺周期预期渐浓，但相对于市场对化债的期待，房地产产业链仍然分歧颇大， 主要系市场普遍陷入了"什么房地产政策才能见效"的牛角尖循环中。事实上， 无论从海外案例还是 2015 年复盘看，政策转向只是房地产见底的必要条件之一， 而非决定性条件，通胀预期才是根本。我们认为，房地产本质是我国居民资产通 缩和通胀的重要载体，目前依然占据居民资产负债表约 60%。以 2015 年为例， 房地产产业链的信心修复也并非一蹴而就，而是股市带来财富通胀效应叠加棚改 货币化定向放水共同驱动居民侧资产通 ...

Investment Rating - Investment rating for the precious metals sector is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The "Trump trade" has reversed, leading to a high-level adjustment in gold prices amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding the elections. The volatility of various asset prices is expected to increase significantly [1][2] - Short-term focus remains on the upcoming U.S. elections, while long-term outlook suggests a bullish trend for gold due to accommodative monetary and fiscal policies in the U.S., alongside geopolitical tensions [1][2] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report highlights macroeconomic indicators from the U.S., including a lower-than-expected JOLTs job openings number of 7.443 million and a significant drop in October non-farm payrolls to 12,000, against an expectation of 113,000 [8][9] 2. Precious Metals - Gold prices have shown an increase, with London spot gold rising by 0.47% and Shanghai gold up by 0.80%. However, silver prices have decreased, with London spot silver down by 1.06% and Shanghai silver down by 2.16% [18][19] - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Zijin Mining, Zhongjin Gold, and Shandong Gold for potential investment opportunities [1][2] 3. Industrial Metals - Copper prices have seen a slight increase, with London copper up by 0.40% and Shanghai copper up by 0.17%. However, copper inventories have decreased, with London copper stocks down by 1.95% and Shanghai copper stocks down by 6.04% [24][25] - The report indicates that the supply-side issues for copper remain unresolved, suggesting a potential for long-term price increases [2][25] 4. Aluminum - Aluminum prices have fluctuated, with London aluminum up by 0.46% and Shanghai aluminum down by 0.26%. The report notes a significant drop in aluminum enterprise profits, down 27.79% to 1,329 yuan/ton [3][27] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor the supply dynamics of bauxite and alumina, as well as the impact of new production capacities [3][27] 5. Minor Metals - Minor metal prices have shown mixed trends, with manganese ore up by 10.26% while molybdenum and magnesium ingots have decreased by 0.53% and 0.57%, respectively [4] - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in antimony, tungsten, and indium for investment opportunities [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a divergence in energy metal prices, with lithium carbonate rebounding from the bottom, while rare earth permanent magnets are experiencing an upward fluctuation. Lithium carbonate prices increased by 0.75% to 73,850 CNY/ton, while lithium hydroxide prices decreased by 0.37% to 66,945 CNY/ton. The supply side shows a steady increase in lithium carbonate production since the beginning of the year, but a decline in production since June. Demand has stabilized, leading to a relatively quiet spot market. Optimistic expectations and production scheduling have stimulated a price rebound, but a surplus is expected to keep prices weak in the future [1][2][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The top three performing segments this week are: Permanent Magnets 22.07%, Rare Earths 14.80%, and Diamonds 2.66%. The bottom three are: High-Temperature Alloys -2.75%, Aluminum Alloys -0.96%, and Lithium -0.25% [8][9]. 2. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Lithium spodumene prices rose by 0.54% to 747 USD/ton, lithium mica prices increased by 1.80% to 1,415 CNY/ton, and lithium carbonate prices rose by 0.75% to 73,850 CNY/ton. Lithium hydroxide prices fell by 0.37% to 66,945 CNY/ton. The profit margin for lithium carbonate from spodumene increased by 8.06% to 3,522 CNY/ton, while the margin from mica decreased by 2.70% to 4,979 CNY/ton [12][13]. - **Cobalt**: Overseas MB cobalt prices rose to 10.88 USD/pound, while domestic cobalt prices fell to 174,000 CNY/ton. Supply remains sufficient, but demand is low, maintaining a surplus [2][20]. - **Nickel Manganese**: Manganese sulfate prices fell to 0.62 CNY/ton, while nickel sulfate prices remained stable at 27,800 CNY/ton. The market is currently quiet, with expectations for a rebound post-inventory depletion [1][22]. 3. Rare Earth Permanent Magnets - Light rare earth ore prices increased by 0.15% to 34,300 CNY/ton, while medium and heavy rare earth ore prices rose by 0.27% to 183,000 CNY/ton. The prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide increased by 0.12% to 423,500 CNY/ton, and terbium oxide rose by 1.27% to 5,975,000 CNY/ton. The market is expected to remain strong due to recovering downstream orders and supply disruptions [2][24]. 4. New Materials - **Power New Materials**: Phosphate iron prices remained stable at 10,400 CNY/ton, while phosphate lithium prices increased by 0.6% to 33,100 CNY/ton. The price of precursor 622 remained stable at 72,500 CNY/ton, while ternary cathode 622 prices fell by 0.8% to 120,500 CNY/ton [28][29]. - **Photovoltaic New Materials**: The average price of welding tape remained stable at 4.25 CNY/kg, while the average price of 421 metal silicon powder rose by 0.76% to 13,250 CNY/ton. The average price of photovoltaic frames decreased by 0.17% to 23,880 CNY/ton [28][29].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 was below expectations, with a revenue of 5.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.22%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 702 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.19% [3] - The decline in investment income led to lower profit growth; excluding this impact, net profit growth was 7.5% [3] - The company achieved a coal production of 3.727 million tons in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 17.8%, while the electricity generation from thermal power decreased by 5% [4] - The company maintains a commitment to a dividend payout ratio of 70%, with a projected dividend yield of 5.6% for 2024 [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported an operating income of 5.81 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.22% year-on-year, and a net profit of 702 million yuan, which is a slight increase of 0.19% year-on-year [3] - The investment income for Q3 was 56 million yuan, down by 63 million yuan year-on-year, primarily due to reduced dividend income from associated companies [3] - The company's coal production increased to 3.727 million tons in Q3, with external sales of 1.709 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.9% [4] Market Performance - The average on-grid electricity price for the first three quarters was 0.3348 yuan per kilowatt-hour, a decrease of 1.2 cents year-on-year [4] - The company’s coal sales price averaged 413.3 yuan per ton, an increase of 12.38 yuan per ton year-on-year, which is higher than the first half of the year [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 2.476 billion yuan, 2.812 billion yuan, and 3.008 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.5%, 13.5%, and 7.0% respectively [5] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 12, 10, and 10 times for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5]