证券研究报告 机械设备 | 工程机械 北交所|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 03 月 03 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 万枭 SAC：S1350524100001 wanxiao@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | | | 2025 | 年 | 02 | 28 | | 日 | 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | 16.50 | | | | 一 年 高 / 低 | 内 | 最 | | | | | | | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | | | 7,549.16 | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | | | 5,619.57 | | | | 总股本（百万股） | | | | | | | 457.53 | | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on expected operational improvements and capacity expansion [5][29]. Core Views - The PCB industry is expected to return to growth, with the global market projected to reach USD 96.8 billion by 2025, driven by demand from AI technology, new energy, and next-generation communication technologies [7][20]. - The company has established a strong position in the high-end PCB sector, with significant technological advantages and a stable order base from leading clients in high-growth areas such as 5G communication and automotive electronics [7][10]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth in 2024, with a forecasted turnaround to profitability in Q4 2024, driven by ongoing product and customer structure optimization [7][19]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue for 2022 was CNY 3,054 million, with a projected decline to CNY 2,624 million in 2023, followed by a recovery to CNY 2,963 million in 2024 and further growth to CNY 3,646 million in 2025 [6][28]. - The company is expected to report a net profit of CNY -0.83 million in 2024, with significant growth anticipated in subsequent years, reaching CNY 1.40 million by 2026 [8][28]. Industry Outlook - The global PCB market is anticipated to recover from a downturn in 2023, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6%-8% from 2023 to 2028, particularly benefiting high-end products like HDI and multi-layer boards [7][20]. - The domestic PCB market is expected to grow from CNY 363.26 billion in 2023 to CNY 433.32 billion by 2025, indicating a robust recovery and growth trajectory [21][22]. Company Strategy and Competitive Position - The company focuses on high-end PCB products, leveraging its technological capabilities and expanding production capacity at its new facility in Zhuhai [10][24]. - The company has established strong relationships with major clients, ensuring stable order flows and enhancing its competitive position in the market [27].

证券研究报告 近 50%消费服务产业企业利润正增长，锦波生物、一致魔芋等业绩高增长 ——北交所消费服务产业跟踪第八期（20250302） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 近 50%企业在 2024 年实现归母净利润正增长。截至 2025 年 2 月 28 日，北交所消 费服务产业 35 家企业已经全部发布业绩快报。2024 年营收规模大于 8 亿元的企业 共有 5 家，分别为锦波生物、骑士乳业、康比特、青矩技术、欧福蛋业。2024 年营 收 yoy 大于 25%的企业共有 8 家，其中佳合科技、锦波生物共 2 家企业的营收 yoy 大于 50%。2024 年归母净利润大于 6000 万元的企业共有 9 家，其中锦波生物、青 矩技术、瑞华技术共 3 家企业的 2024 年归母净利润超过 1 亿元。49%的企业在 2024 年实现归母净利润正增长。综合 2024 年营收和归母净利润的成长性而言，我们发现 锦波生物、康比特、康农种业、路斯股份、一致魔芋等企业成长性表现优异。其中， 锦波生物 2024 年归母净利润达 73346 万元（yoy+144.65%），主要系公司积极研 发新产 ...

证券研究报告 公用事业 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——公用事业 2025 年第 9 周周报（20250302） 投资要点： 证券分析师 2025 年能源工作指导意见发布 新能源有望迎高质量发展 2 月 27 日，国家能源局发布《2025 年能源工作指导意见》。主要变化如下： （一）电源装机目标明确，传统电网有望迎投产高峰。2025 年全国发电总装机达到 36 亿千瓦以上，新 增新能源发电装机规模 2 亿千瓦以上，非化石能源发电装机占比提高到 60%左右，据此推算 2025 年燃 煤+燃气增加约 10135 万千瓦，2025 年是火电投产大年。 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 03 月 03 日 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 戴映炘 SAC：S1350524080002 daiyingxin@huayuanstock.com 蔡思 SAC：S1350524070005 caisi@huayuanstock.com 联系人 板块 ...

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 03 月 02 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年02月28日 华源晨会精粹 固定收益 制造业 PMI 改善明显——2025 年 2 月 PMI 点评：2 月制造业 PMI 环比上 升 1.1pct 至 50.2%。春节过后制造业陆续复工复产叠加增量政策持续发力，制造业 需求明显改善，价格指数上升，大型企业景气水平明显回升，中小企业节后恢复相 对滞后。制造业 PMI 各分项指标超季节性回升，说明年后恢复较好。2 月非制造业 商务活动指数为 50.4%，环比上升 0.2pct。春节错位等因素导致 2025 年 1 月生产收 缩后，2 月制造业 PMI 升至 50.2%，或因企业加速复工复产、增量政策发力及出口 预期企稳改善，供需回暖超预期。非制造业中，建筑业 PMI 或因基建开工等因素回 升至 52.7%，但服务业或受节后消费回落拖累降至 50.0%。整体来看，1 月制造业 PMI 超季节性回落与 2 月企稳回升合并观察更合理，反映 Q1 经济修复趋势。未来 需关注政策落地及外部风险，需求不足或仍是核心矛盾。 风险提示：财政 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The dry bulk market is showing signs of recovery, with freight rates and FFA prices both increasing. Cape-sized vessel spot rates have doubled compared to the low point on February 12, reaching $11,584 per day, although still down 56% year-on-year. The market sentiment has improved due to better weather in Australia and a shift in coal shipping to Cape-sized vessels, leading to tight capacity in the Pacific market [5] - The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) reported a decrease of 5.0% to 1515 points as of February 28, with varying changes in rates for different routes [6] - The oil tanker freight rates have decreased, with the BDTI index down 3.2% to 888 points, and the TCE for VLCC down 8.8% [6] - The BDI index for dry bulk shipping increased by 20.5% to 1078 points, indicating a positive trend in the dry bulk shipping market [7] Summary by Sections Shipping Vessels - The dry bulk market is recovering with freight rates increasing significantly. Cape-sized vessel rates have reached $11,584 per day, while Panamax and Supramax rates have increased by 51% and 69% respectively. The FFA market is also showing a positive trend with March contract prices nearing $18,000 per day [5] - The oil tanker market is facing downward pressure with a decrease in freight rates across various vessel types [6] - The BDI index has shown a significant increase, indicating a recovery in the dry bulk shipping market [7] Aviation - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with a long-term supply-demand gap driving growth. The spring travel season is showing positive booking data, indicating a potential rebound in demand [14] - Global air passenger demand increased by 10% in January, with the Asia-Pacific region performing particularly well [9] - The CAPSE report indicates a positive trend in travel willingness for March, suggesting a recovery in air travel demand [10] Express Logistics - The express delivery sector is showing resilience, with overall demand remaining strong. The leading companies in the sector are expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and cost reduction efforts [14] - The logistics sector has maintained smooth operations, with significant increases in freight volumes across various transport modes [11] Supply Chain Logistics - The logistics landscape is evolving with the introduction of new low-altitude logistics routes, enhancing delivery efficiency in urban areas [12] - Companies like Shenzhen International are expected to see performance improvements due to the transformation of logistics parks [16] Shipping and Shipbuilding - The oil tanker market is expected to see sustained demand due to limited new orders and an aging fleet, while the dry bulk market is anticipated to recover due to regulatory pressures on older vessels and new mining projects [14] - The shipbuilding sector is experiencing tight capacity, with new orders extending delivery times to 2027/28, driving up ship prices [14]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The global technology sector experienced a decline during the week of February 24 to February 28, 2025, with the Hang Seng Technology Index falling by 5.0% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping by 7.2% [4][7] - The report highlights a significant net outflow from cryptocurrency core asset ETFs, totaling $2.614 billion for the week, influenced by U.S. trade policy announcements [20][25] - The report emphasizes the potential for investment opportunities in gold, cryptocurrency, and natural uranium sectors, despite current market weaknesses [4][20] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Overview - The global technology sector saw a downturn, with notable declines in major indices, including a 5.0% drop in the Hang Seng Technology Index and a 7.2% drop in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index [4][7] - Key individual stock performances included significant gains for companies like Xpeng Motors (+16.8%) and declines for companies like Weishi Jiajie (-29%) [9][10] Section 2: Cryptocurrency Market - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies decreased significantly, from $3.24 trillion to $2.81 trillion within a week, indicating a bearish market sentiment [20][21] - The cryptocurrency fear and greed index indicated a state of fear, with a score of 21 as of February 28, 2025 [21] - The report notes that the price of core cryptocurrency assets experienced a sharp decline due to trade policy announcements from the U.S. government, which raised concerns about potential trade friction [27] Section 3: Natural Uranium Sector - Company UUUU reported a net loss of $47.84 million for 2024, with revenues of $78.11 million, primarily due to one-time transaction costs and operational expenses [15][16] - For 2025, UUUU expects to sell between 200,000 to 300,000 pounds of uranium, with projected production of 730,000 to 1,170,000 pounds [16] - The company has secured additional long-term contracts for uranium sales, indicating a strategic move to mitigate inflation risks [15][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the shipping and shipbuilding market [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports, indicating that recent measures have led to a significant decline in shipping volumes [3][11]. - It notes that the Iranian oil shipping export volume decreased by 2.6 million barrels per day over a 15-month period due to sustained sanctions during the Trump administration [11]. - The report also mentions that following the sanctions imposed on January 10, the floating storage of Iranian oil has remained at a relatively high level since December 2024 [13]. Summary by Sections - **Market Performance**: The shipping and port sector is experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical factors, particularly U.S. sanctions on Iran [3]. - **Sanction Effects**: The report discusses the historical context of U.S. sanctions and their direct effects on Iranian oil exports, emphasizing the long-term impact on shipping volumes [11]. - **Current Trends**: Recent data indicates that despite sanctions, Iranian floating storage levels are elevated, suggesting ongoing challenges in the market [13].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5][7]. Core Insights - Rumble is positioned as a challenger to major tech monopolies, promoting a fair and free video platform. The company has seen significant growth potential through advertising revenue driven by Monthly Active Users (MAU) and Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) [5][7]. - The strategic investment of $775 million from Tether, a leading stablecoin company, is expected to enhance Rumble's growth and expansion plans [5][7]. - The company is focusing on diversifying its revenue streams, including cloud services and cryptocurrency integration, which are anticipated to provide additional growth avenues [5][7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of February 26, 2025, Rumble's closing price was $9.18, with a market capitalization of $3.6 billion and a total share count of 390 million [3]. Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2027 are projected at $94.1 million, $180.9 million, $420.0 million, and $1.188 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of -$115.9 million, -$0.3 million, $56.2 million, and $216.2 million [6][7]. - The Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratios for the same years are expected to be 38.01, 19.77, 8.51, and 3.01 [6][7]. Key Assumptions - The monetization of revenue is based on the product of quarterly ARPU and average MAU, with expected ARPU growth rates of -6%, 35%, 60%, and 80% from 2024 to 2027 [8]. - MAU is anticipated to grow at rates of 15%, 50%, 50%, and 60% over the same period, driven by increased content creator engagement and political events [8]. Investment Logic - Rumble's commitment to a free speech platform has attracted a unique user base, and its advertising revenue is expected to benefit from both MAU and ARPU growth [7][8]. - The company is leveraging its cloud services to ensure data autonomy and expand its service offerings, which is expected to enhance its competitive position [7][8]. - The partnership with Tether is set to facilitate the integration of cryptocurrency payment options, providing content creators with diverse income sources [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the media and internet industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The DeepSeek open-source week has accelerated the development of AI capabilities in China, promoting "technological equality" and creating investment opportunities in the related industry chain [4][5] - The report highlights the potential of domestic open-source models to overcome computational and chip limitations, suggesting that leading internet companies may experience a revaluation in AI development [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of quality content and its impact on box office performance, with a focus on key film producers and cinema companies [9] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The media sector experienced a decline of 8% from February 24 to February 28, ranking 30th among all industries [12][17] - The report notes significant fluctuations in stock performance among media companies, with top gainers including Baotong Technology (57.64%) and Tianzhou Culture (21.65%), while losers included Zheshang Culture (-25.86%) and Shunwang Technology (-18.1%) [18][21] AI Developments - DeepSeek's open-source week introduced several core technologies, including high-performance decoding cores and communication libraries, enhancing AI training and inference capabilities [4] - Tencent's new AI model, Turbo S, has improved response speed and reduced latency, indicating a strategic shift towards enhancing user experience in AI applications [5][24] Film and Television - The film "Nezha: Birth of the Demon Child" has achieved a total box office of over 141 billion, with predictions suggesting it may exceed 148 billion, highlighting the importance of quality content in driving box office success [9][47] - The report indicates that the total box office for the week reached 703 million, with "Nezha" dominating the market share [44][47] - In television, "Difficult to Please" led with a viewership of 342 million, capturing an 18.57% market share [49] Gaming Sector - The report suggests exploring the integration of AI in gaming, particularly in mobile and casual games, which may offer significant growth potential [8] - The top games in the iOS market included "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite," indicating strong competition in the gaming sector [34] Company Announcements - Companies like Alibaba and Tencent are making substantial investments in AI and cloud infrastructure, with Alibaba committing over 380 billion for hardware development [25] - The report highlights various company announcements, including stock issuance by Tangde Film and the performance forecast of Youyi Time, indicating ongoing corporate activities in the sector [26][29]