证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 14 日 3 月金融数据亮眼 ——2025 年 3 月金融数据点评 投资要点： 事件：4 月 13 日下午央行披露了 2025 年 3 月金融数据：新增贷款 3.64 万亿元，社融 5.89 万亿元。3 月末，M2 达 326.06 万亿，YoY+7.0%；M1 YoY +1.6%；社融增速 8.4%。 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 3 月新增贷款 3.64 万亿，同比明显多增。3 月下旬，1M 转贴现明显走高，反映当月 信贷投放情况较好。一般而言，一季度的 1 及 3 月是信贷投放大月，2 月是信贷小 月。3 月新增贷款同比多增，一方面是信贷需求小幅改善，另外一方面，也有银行 3 月冲刺信贷的影响。存量按揭利率低及股市平稳缓解提前还贷压力，一二线城市二 手房成交活跃，按揭贷款需求阶段性好转。3 月个贷+9853 亿，其中，个贷短贷+4841 亿，个人中长期贷款+5047 亿，均较好。3 月对公短 ...

证券研究报告 | 北交所定期报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 14 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 万枭 SAC：S1350524100001 wanxiao@huayuanstock.com "提振消费"是 2025 年国家重要任务，关注北交所特色消费产业链标的 ——北交所消费服务产业跟踪第十一期（20250413） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 2025 年我国针对"提振消费，优化消费环境"密集出台一系列政策。2025 年 4 月 7 日，商务部、国家 卫生健康委等 12 部门印发《促进健康消费专项行动方案》，旨在培育和发展健康消费领域新质生产力， 提升健康商品和服务供给质量，更好满足人民美好生活需要。2025 年 3 月 16 日，中共中央办公厅、国 务院办公厅印发《提振消费专项行动方案》，旨在大力提振消费，全方位扩大国内需求，以增收减负提 升消费能力，以高质量供给创造有效需求，以优化消费环境增强消费意愿，针对性解决制约消费的突出 矛盾问题。2025 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.076 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 277 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, meeting expectations [5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.38 yuan per share, totaling approximately 136 million yuan, with a full-year dividend of 277 million yuan, achieving a dividend payout ratio of 100%, exceeding the promised 70% [5] - The electric power instrument business saw significant growth, with revenue reaching 157 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 134%, and a gross margin improvement to 56.4%, up 14.7 percentage points [6] - The environmental protection business faced challenges, with revenue from operation services declining by 10% to 240 million yuan and revenue from intelligent instruments dropping by 57% to 68 million yuan [6] - The company has committed to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 70% for 2024-2026, with the actual payout for 2024 being 100% [7] - The company has repurchased shares worth 80 million yuan as of April 1, 2025, with a maximum potential repurchase amount of 100 million yuan [7] - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is 354 million, 426 million, and 476 million yuan, with growth rates of 28%, 20%, and 12% respectively [7] Financial Summary - The company achieved a total revenue of 1.077 billion yuan in 2024, with a projected increase to 1.308 billion yuan in 2025, representing a growth rate of 21.47% [8] - The net profit for 2024 is projected at 277 million yuan, with expected growth to 354 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 27.63% [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.73 yuan in 2024, increasing to 0.93 yuan in 2025 [8] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 9.27% in 2024 to 11.32% in 2025 [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights the impact of escalating tariffs on trade flows, particularly benefiting transshipment trade between Asia and Latin America. The report suggests focusing on shipping and port-related stocks due to the significant tariff increases imposed by the U.S. on Chinese imports [5] - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index reported a slight increase of 0.1% week-on-week, indicating a mixed trend in shipping rates across different routes [6] - The report notes a decline in bulk shipping rates, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) dropping by 15.5% week-on-week, reflecting weaker demand in the dry bulk market [7] - The express delivery sector continues to show robust growth, with a projected year-on-year increase of 18% in March 2025, driven by seasonal demand and expanding service offerings [8] - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with a significant increase in domestic flight operations and passenger numbers in the first quarter of 2025 [9][11] Summary by Sections Shipping and Maritime - The report indicates a tight supply in the oil tanker segment due to limited new orders and an aging fleet, with expectations of sustained demand growth driven by geopolitical factors [11] - The report emphasizes the ongoing green transition in shipping, with a focus on the need for fleet renewal and the potential for rising ship prices due to limited newbuilding capacity [11] Express Delivery - The express delivery market is experiencing strong demand, with major players like SF Express and JD Logistics expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and cost reduction efforts [11] - The report identifies key players in the express delivery sector, including ZTO Express, YTO Express, and Shentong Express, highlighting their growth potential and market positioning [11] Aviation - The aviation sector is witnessing a significant rebound in passenger traffic, with a 2.1-fold increase in domestic flight operations in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year [9][11] - The report notes the introduction of a new tax refund policy for international travelers, which is expected to enhance consumer spending and boost airport revenues [9] Logistics - The logistics sector is showing signs of improvement, with companies like Debon Logistics and Aneng Logistics benefiting from strategic transformations and operational efficiencies [11] - The report highlights the potential for growth in chemical logistics, driven by increasing demand and tightening industry regulations [11]

证券研究报告 ——信用分析周报（2025/4/7-2025/4/11） 投资要点： 3）负面舆情：南京世茂房地产开发有限公司所发行"H 希尔 01"隐含评级调低； 深圳市中装建设集团股份有限公司主体评级调低，其所发行的"中装转 2"债项评级 调低。 本周市场分析：本周资金面整体仍偏紧，公开市场共有 7634 亿元逆回购到期，共有 1500 亿元国库现金定存到期，央行累计开展 4742 亿元逆回购操作，实现全周净回 笼 4392 亿元。本周市场避险情绪不减，交易量和换手率较上周显著抬升。目前，加 征关税的最终结局仍难以预料，但进一步加征对债市的边际影响减弱。我们认为， 10 年期国债 1.65%定价了约 30BP 的降息预期，年内 10Y 国债收益率仍可能回到 1.7%上方。 投资建议：总体来看，本周各行业信用利差整体以压缩为主。城投债方面，本周 3-5Y 城投信用利差仍倒挂长端利差，处于期限结构凸点，且 3-5Y 信用利差处于较高历史 分位，建议可选取发达地区的优质城投主体，锁定票息资产并博取资本利得。产业 债方面，本周产业债信用利差较上周五整体走扩，且弱资质走扩幅度显著高于高评 级主体，建议关注期限结构上利 ...

证券研究报告 电力设备 | 电网设备 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 13 日 证券分析师 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 戴映炘 SAC：S1350524080002 daiyingxin@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | | | | | 2025 | 年 | 04 | 月 11 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | | 14.40 | | | 一 年 内 低 | 最 | 高 | / | 最 | | | | 22.83/13.17 | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | | | | 12,905.65 | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | | | | 12,90 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from high industry prosperity, leading to performance growth, with expectations for new customers and production capacity remaining strong [4] - The company achieved a revenue of 24.006 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.35%, and a net profit of 3.840 billion RMB, up 20.00% year-on-year [6] - The company’s core business remains in sports and leisure shoes, with revenue from this segment reaching 20.991 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 17.88% [6] Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2023: 20.114 billion RMB - 2024: 24.006 billion RMB (19.35% YoY growth) - 2025E: 27.664 billion RMB (15.24% YoY growth) - 2026E: 31.734 billion RMB (14.71% YoY growth) - 2027E: 36.258 billion RMB (14.25% YoY growth) [5] - Net Profit Forecast: - 2023: 3.200 billion RMB - 2024: 3.840 billion RMB (20.00% YoY growth) - 2025E: 4.355 billion RMB (13.40% YoY growth) - 2026E: 4.959 billion RMB (13.87% YoY growth) - 2027E: 5.731 billion RMB (15.58% YoY growth) [5] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2023: 2.74 RMB - 2024: 3.29 RMB - 2025E: 3.73 RMB - 2026E: 4.25 RMB - 2027E: 4.91 RMB [5] - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2023: 21.18% - 2024: 22.03% - 2025E: 21.22% - 2026E: 20.63% - 2027E: 20.39% [5] Market Performance - The company sold 223 million pairs of sports shoes in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.53%, with a production capacity of 229 million pairs, up 3.32% year-on-year [6] - The company’s production capacity utilization rate reached 96.72% in 2024, an increase of approximately 10 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 23 RMB per 10 shares for the 2024 fiscal year, with an expected payout ratio of about 70% of net profit [6]

hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 13 日 证券研究报告 医药生物 行业定期报告 刘闯 SAC：S1350524030002 liuchuang@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： PD1/VEGF 重磅数据即将来临，继续推荐康方生物、三生制药 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——医药行业周报（25/4/7-25/4/11） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 联系人 本周医药市场表现分析：4 月 7 日至 4 月 11 日，医药指数下跌 5.61%，相对沪深 300 指数超额收益为-2.73%。本周创新药板块先抑后扬、继续活跃，海思科、一品红、科兴 制药等表现亮眼、创阶段新高，出口产业链受美国关税影响表现较差，血制品等防御品 种表现较好。经过一周的中美"关税"对弈，情绪边际影响已显著减弱，建议关注：1） 创新药出海不受关税影响，继续重点推荐 A 股科伦药业、热景生物、一品红、科兴制药、 恒瑞医药；港股三生制药、科伦博泰、康方生物、中国生物制药；2）国产替代机会，建 议关注医疗器械（联影医疗、开立医疗、澳华内镜、惠泰医疗、微电生理、迈普医学）、 血制品（派林 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - Copper prices rebounded after a significant drop, with attention on the ongoing US-China trade dynamics and recession expectations in the US. The weekly performance showed US copper up 3.75%, London copper up 2.97%, and Shanghai copper down 4.6%. The decline in copper prices led to increased downstream activity and accelerated inventory depletion, with copper rod operating rates at 74.76%, up 0.21 percentage points week-on-week. Social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased by 14.80% to 267,200 tons, while Shanghai copper inventory fell by 18.96% to 182,900 tons. Short-term price rebounds may be limited by US recession expectations, with key focus areas being US-China trade developments, US economic and inflation data, and Federal Reserve interest rate expectations. Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4] - Aluminum prices fell due to tariff impacts, with signs of weakening demand in the peak season and continued inventory depletion. The alumina market remains oversupplied, with prices dropping 5.12% to 2,870 RMB/ton. The operating capacity of alumina plants decreased by 1.91 million tons to 84.82 million tons/year. Electrolytic aluminum prices fell 3.72% to 19,675 RMB/ton, with profit margins down 15.54% to 3,650 RMB/ton. Overall, the supply side of electrolytic aluminum shows no increase in capacity, leading to a potential shortage this year, which could drive aluminum prices up significantly. Recommended stocks include Hongchuang Holdings, Yun Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., and China Aluminum [4] - Lithium prices continued to decline, with carbonate lithium down 3.11% to 71,600 RMB/ton. The supply side remains oversupplied, with inventory increasing by 1.3% to 131,000 tons. Demand growth is hindered by tariff impacts on downstream exports, with expectations for a narrowing of the oversupply throughout the year. Recommended stocks include Yahua Group, Zhongjin Lingnan, Yongxing Materials, and Ganfeng Lithium [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The US March CPI was lower than expected at 2.4%, with initial jobless claims matching expectations at 223,000 [8] 2. Industrial Metals 2.1. Copper - London copper rose 2.97%, while Shanghai copper fell 4.60%. Inventory levels decreased significantly, with Shanghai copper inventory down 18.96% [21][24] 2.2. Aluminum - London aluminum increased by 0.50%, while Shanghai aluminum decreased by 3.72%. The operating profit for aluminum companies fell by 15.54% [33] 2.3. Lead and Zinc - London lead prices fell 0.57%, while Shanghai lead prices decreased by 2.44%. London zinc prices rose 0.34%, but Shanghai zinc prices fell 2.36% [48] 2.4. Tin and Nickel - London tin prices dropped 12.17%, and Shanghai tin prices fell 13.22%. Nickel prices also saw a decline [61] 3. Energy Metals 3.1. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices fell 3.11% to 71,600 RMB/ton, with continued oversupply in the market [77] 3.2. Cobalt - Overseas MB cobalt prices increased by 0.16% to 15.88 USD/pound, while domestic cobalt prices fell [88]

Group 1 - The trend of public funds allocating to companies listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) is increasingly prominent, with 440 funds holding BSE companies as of March 31, 2025 [3][7][23] - Among the top holdings in BSE, Jinbo Biological, Suzhou Axle, and Tongli Co. are the three largest by market value, with significant institutional interest [3][23][24] - The BSE 50 Index has shown a strong performance, leading the market with a year-to-date increase of 24% [3][28][34] Group 2 - The overall price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for BSE A-shares is currently at 44X, indicating a slight recovery in valuation [4][33] - The average daily trading volume for BSE A-shares has rebounded to 385 billion, reflecting improved market activity [4][36] - The number of companies listed on the BSE is steadily increasing, contributing to a more mature market ecosystem [3][29][21] Group 3 - The report highlights a focus on companies with stable dividends and potential for exceeding performance expectations in Q1 2025, such as Minshida and Wantong Hydraulic [3][29] - There is an emphasis on sectors like semiconductors, robotics, and consumer electronics as key areas for trading opportunities [3][29][19] - The investment strategy is centered around "valuation cost-effectiveness + performance certainty," with a focus on capturing growth opportunities while managing risks [3][13][19]