Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights the need for the express delivery industry to shift towards high-quality development, as the State Post Bureau opposes "involution" competition and aims to improve service quality [4] - The express delivery sector is currently experiencing a decline in per-package revenue, with major companies like Zhongtong, Yuantong, Yunda, and Shentong showing year-on-year decreases in revenue per package [4] - Jitu's Southeast Asian market has seen significant growth, with a total package volume of 7.392 billion pieces in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23.5% [5] - The airline industry is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with long-term supply-demand trends indicating potential for growth [12] - The shipping sector is anticipated to improve due to OPEC+ production increases and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with specific recommendations for companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping [12] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The express delivery market is facing intense competition, with major players experiencing a decline in revenue per package [4] - The report suggests that regulatory changes could help improve the situation by reducing low-cost competition and enhancing the performance of leading companies [4][12] Airline Industry - The airline sector is characterized by long-term low supply growth, but demand is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery [12] - Key companies to watch include China National Aviation Holding, Southern Airlines, and HNA Group [12] Shipping and Ports - The report indicates a positive outlook for oil transportation due to OPEC+ production increases and potential interest rate cuts [12] - Recommendations include focusing on companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping for their growth potential in the shipping market [12] Road and Rail - The report notes that the Daqin Railway experienced a year-on-year decrease in freight volume in June 2025, while overall logistics operations remain stable [11][12] - Companies like Zhongyuan Expressway and Sichuan Chengyu are highlighted for their growth potential due to infrastructure developments [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the media and internet industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the upcoming mid-year earnings announcements are expected to provide trading opportunities, with a positive outlook for the summer season driven by quality products. If high-frequency data does not show a turning point, the trend of high prosperity is likely to continue upward. It is also recommended to pay attention to major domestic companies like Tencent, Alibaba, and ByteDance in the iteration of AI underlying technologies and AI application products [4][6][10]. Summary by Sections Game Sector - As of July 13, 2025, the game "Douluo Dalu: Hunting Soul World" by Sanqi Interactive ranks first in the iOS free game chart, while Tencent's "Delta Action" ranks second in the free game chart and third in the revenue chart. The summer season is expected to see new game launches and major updates for existing products, with high-frequency data not showing a turning point, indicating continued trading catalysts. Attention is recommended for leading gaming companies exploring AI+companionship+gamification paradigms [5][6]. Internet Sector - On July 12, Meituan announced that its daily order volume for instant retail exceeded 150 million, with over 35 million orders for "Pin Hao Fan" and over 50 million for "Shen Qiang Shou." On July 7, Taobao Flash Sale and Ele.me jointly announced that their daily order count exceeded 80 million, with over 13 million non-food orders. The report suggests that the platform advantages of leading companies like Tencent, Alibaba, and Meituan are reflected in their resilient fundamentals, and attention should be paid to their strategic adjustments [6][10]. AI Application Sector - The report highlights significant progress in AI applications, with digital human Luo Yonghao's live-streaming debut achieving a GMV of over 55 million yuan. The integration of AI in e-commerce live streaming is expected to lower operational costs and enhance efficiency. Companies involved in digital human production, IP, and live-streaming e-commerce operations are recommended for attention [7][8]. Film Sector - The summer film season is expected to drive steady growth in box office revenue, with a focus on key film producers and cinema/ticketing companies. The report suggests monitoring companies like Wanda Film, Maoyan Entertainment, and Alibaba Pictures [9][10]. Card and Trendy Toys Sector - The report notes a high prosperity level in the card and trendy toys sector, with companies increasingly focusing on the "Guzi Economy" and expanding their product lines. Continuous attention is recommended for companies involved in card and trendy toy development [9][10]. State-owned Publishing Sector - The report indicates that state-owned publishing companies have disclosed their 2024 financial reports, with some exploring new business models in education and enhancing dividend sustainability. Attention is recommended for state media companies actively pursuing mergers and acquisitions [10]. Market Review - From July 7 to July 11, 2025, the A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index increase by 1.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.78%, and the media sector (Shenwan) rose by 3.11%, ranking 8th among all industries [11][15].

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 13 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年07月11日 华源晨会精粹 20250713 固定收益 农村金融机构持有多少债券？——农商行债券投资情况梳理：近年来，农 商行逐渐成为债券市场的重要参与者。中长期来看，商业银行债券投资占比或趋于 上升。截至 2025 年 3 月末，农村金融机构资产规模达 59.9 万亿元，倘若债券投资 占比与中小型银行一致，持有债券规模达 13.6 万亿元。需要关注农商行债券投资可 能的监管政策。利率债看窄幅震荡，继续看多长久期下沉城投及资本债。我们认为 25Q3 降息的可能性低，但当前央行较宽松，利率债很难明显调整，看窄幅震荡。我 们建议，利率债波段操作紧盯资金面，一旦收紧就防守。6 月初以来我们持续看多长 久期下沉的城投债及资本债、保险次级债，力推民生、渤海、恒丰长久期资本债， 看多城投点心债及美元债。继续关注港股银行机会。关注中华财险资本补充债投资 机会。 风险提示：经济可能好于预期，央行可能收紧资金面，可能引发债市调整；农商行 等银行自营投资债券及基金监管政策可能收紧；理财估值整改 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a transformation with traditional Big Pharma companies increasingly focusing on innovation and BD (business development) transactions, which are expected to become a regular source of income and profit [9][12] - The report highlights that the innovative drug segment is gaining momentum, with companies like 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine) and 翰森制药 (Hansoh Pharmaceutical) achieving significant growth in their innovative drug revenues [12][21] - The report anticipates that the pharmaceutical industry will benefit from multiple positive factors, including the aging population, steady growth in medical insurance revenue, and advancements in AI technology [45] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - From July 7 to July 11, the pharmaceutical index rose by 1.82%, outperforming the沪深 300 index by 1.00% [5] - The report notes that 350 stocks in the sector increased in value, while 131 stocks decreased [5][25] Business Development (BD) Insights - BD transactions are becoming a crucial strategy for traditional Big Pharma, with a focus on increasing international revenue and opening new growth avenues [9][12] - The report indicates that BD income is expected to contribute significantly to the profit growth of companies like 恒瑞医药 and 翰森制药, with numerous successful licensing agreements [18][21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on innovative drugs and related sectors, particularly companies with strong BD capabilities and those positioned for international expansion [45][46] - Specific companies recommended for investment include 恒瑞医药, 科伦药业, and various CXO and supply chain firms [45][46] Market Trends - The report emphasizes the ongoing shift towards innovative drug development, with traditional pharmaceutical companies successfully transitioning to this model [12][21] - The aging population is expected to drive demand for chronic disease treatments, further supporting the growth of the pharmaceutical sector [45] Valuation Insights - As of July 11, 2025, the overall PE valuation for the pharmaceutical sector is 35.79X, indicating that the sector is still at a relatively low historical valuation [33][45]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][106]. Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are under pressure due to the implementation of a 50% tariff on copper by the U.S., which is expected to take effect in late July or early August. This has led to a significant increase in U.S. copper prices while London and Shanghai copper prices have declined [5][9]. - The report anticipates that global copper inventory transfers will conclude, providing some support for copper prices despite the short-term pressure from tariffs. It is expected that Shanghai copper will fluctuate between 77,000 and 79,000 CNY per ton in the near term [5]. - The aluminum market is characterized by low inventory levels, with aluminum prices experiencing high volatility. The report notes a slight increase in alumina prices and a decrease in aluminum production margins [5][26]. - Lithium prices are rebounding from the bottom, driven by a "reverse involution" trend, with expectations for supply-side reductions and seasonal demand support [5][78]. - Cobalt prices may rebound due to an extended export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is expected to tighten supply in the fourth quarter [5][88]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report discusses macroeconomic indicators, including U.S. unemployment claims, and the announcement of copper tariffs by the U.S. government [9]. - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector is analyzed, with the sector underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [11]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - London copper prices fell by 2.43%, while Shanghai copper prices decreased by 1.63%. U.S. copper prices increased by 10.30%. Inventory levels showed a mixed trend, with London copper inventory rising by 14.12% and Shanghai copper inventory declining by 3.70% [26]. 2.2 Aluminum - London aluminum prices increased by 0.08%, and Shanghai aluminum prices rose by 0.36%. Inventory levels for both London and Shanghai aluminum increased, while production margins decreased [26][36]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - Lead prices decreased, while zinc prices saw a slight increase. Inventory levels for lead and zinc showed mixed trends, with lead inventory declining and zinc inventory increasing [49]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - Tin prices fell, and nickel prices also experienced a decline. Inventory levels for both metals showed a downward trend [62]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices, including lithium carbonate and lithium spodumene, saw increases, while hydroxide prices slightly decreased. The report notes ongoing challenges in production margins for lithium [78]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices are under pressure, but the extended export ban from the DRC may create opportunities for price rebounds in the future [88].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The photovoltaic manufacturing industry is currently facing challenges due to unclear downstream demand expectations and excess upstream capacity. However, the implementation of Document No. 136 is expected to clarify demand expectations, leading to improvements in both supply and demand dynamics within the industry [4][20] - The energy storage sector is experiencing a significant increase in project bidding, with June 2025 seeing a record high of 62.8 GWh in public bidding capacity, a 228% increase compared to June 2024 [5][9] - The photovoltaic sector is anticipated to rebound due to the "anti-involution" plan aimed at reducing excess capacity and promoting sustainable development within the industry [17][18] Summary by Sections Energy Storage - The energy storage industry is in a transitional phase, with ongoing government support expected to maintain resilient demand for storage projects. Key companies to watch include Haibo Shichuang and Sungrow Power [14][17] - The regions with high renewable energy penetration, such as Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Xinjiang, and Hebei, are showing positive attitudes towards supporting energy storage projects [14][15] Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing rapid capacity growth, outpacing demand, leading to significant losses for companies. The "anti-involution" plan aims to address this by facilitating the exit of outdated capacity and stabilizing prices [17][18] - The price of polysilicon has seen a dramatic decline, dropping from 65 RMB/kg at the beginning of 2024 to 35 RMB/kg by July 2025, but there are signs of recovery [18][19] - Companies to focus on include Tongwei Co., GCL-Poly Energy, and Xinte Energy in the polysilicon segment, and new technology firms like BQ Materials and Aiko Solar in the photovoltaic technology space [4][20]

Group 1 - In the first half of 2025, the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) accepted 115 companies for IPOs, accounting for 65% of the total 177 companies accepted across three major exchanges [5][8][11] - The month of June 2025 saw a significant surge in IPO applications, with 150 companies accepted, representing 85% of the half-year total, and setting a record of 41 companies accepted in a single day [5][8][11] - The median net profit of companies accepted by the BSE reached 0.81 billion yuan, which is higher than the median of 0.73 billion yuan for companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [15][19][21] Group 2 - The industry structure of companies accepted by the BSE is diverse, with a focus on high-end manufacturing, new materials, and new consumption, while the mechanical equipment sector remains the largest [21][25] - The BSE's acceptance of companies with net profits starting from 40 million yuan indicates a continuous increase in the quality and profitability of the companies listed [15][19] - The report suggests a positive outlook for the BSE, emphasizing the importance of companies with stable long-term performance and those in high-tech and consumer sectors [25][27] Group 3 - The overall price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for BSE stocks has risen to 51X, reflecting a recovery in market valuations [27][30] - The average daily trading volume for BSE stocks has decreased to 216 billion yuan, indicating a need for continued monitoring of market liquidity [22][30] - The report highlights the importance of regulatory updates in maintaining market order and promoting healthy development within the BSE [25][27]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is mentioned in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rural commercial banks (RCCs) have become important participants in the bond market, preferring to invest in inter - bank certificates of deposit, government bonds, local bonds, policy - financial bonds, and participating in urban investment bond investments. In 2024, RCCs significantly increased their allocation of ultra - long - term government bonds, and their bond investment is shifting from "hold - to - maturity" to trading [1]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the proportion of commercial banks' bond investment is likely to increase. As the era of real estate wanes and infrastructure investment space shrinks, credit demand may be weak in the long run, and the asset structure of the banking system will change accordingly [1]. - The bond - holding scale of rural financial institutions is estimated to exceed 13 trillion yuan. If the bond investment ratio is controlled within 20% or 15%, it may lead to significant bond investment reduction and impact the bond market [1]. - Interest - rate bonds are expected to show narrow - range fluctuations in 25Q3. The report continues to be bullish on long - duration urban investment bonds, capital bonds, and suggests paying attention to investment opportunities in Hong Kong - listed banks and China Property Insurance's capital - supplementary bonds [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Information Rural Commercial Banks' Bond Investment Preferences - RCCs tend to invest in inter - bank certificates of deposit, government bonds, local bonds, policy - financial bonds, and participate in urban investment bond investments. In 2024, they significantly increased their allocation of ultra - long - term government bonds [1]. Trend of Commercial Banks' Bond Investment Proportion - From the overall situation of small and medium - sized banks, the proportion of bond investment increased from 13.7% at the end of January 2015 to 22.7% at the end of May 2025 [1]. Estimation of Rural Financial Institutions' Bond - Holding Scale - As of the end of May 2025, small and medium - sized banks (joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and RCCs) held a total of 46.4 trillion yuan in bonds, accounting for 22.7% of total assets. As of the end of March 2025, if the bond investment ratio of rural financial institutions is the same as that of small and medium - sized banks, their bond - holding scale reaches 13.6 trillion yuan. If calculated based on the 27.8% bond investment ratio of A - share listed RCCs at the end of 2024, the bond - holding scale of rural financial institutions reaches 16.6 trillion yuan [1]. Potential Impact of Regulatory Policies - If the bond investment ratio of rural financial institutions is controlled within 20%, at least 1.6 trillion yuan of bond investment needs to be reduced; if controlled below 15%, the reduction scale exceeds 4.6 trillion yuan, which may significantly impact the bond market [1]. Bond Market Outlook and Investment Suggestions - In 25Q3, the possibility of an interest - rate cut is low, and interest - rate bonds are expected to show narrow - range fluctuations. The report recommends band - trading interest - rate bonds and paying attention to the money supply. It continues to be bullish on long - duration urban investment bonds, capital bonds, and insurance sub - debt, and suggests paying attention to investment opportunities in Hong Kong - listed banks and China Property Insurance's capital - supplementary bonds [1].

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report argues that China Minsheng Bank's existing non - performing assets are basically resolved, its fundamentals are improving, and the market may have overestimated its credit risk. The investment value of its Tier 2 and perpetual bonds is relatively high, with significant potential for yield decline and prominent cost - effectiveness [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Equity Structure and Corporate Governance - **Stable Equity Structure and Controllable Related - Party Loan Risks**: As of Q1 2025, Minsheng Bank's total assets reached 7.78 trillion yuan, and it is one of the 20 system - important banks in China in 2023. The top shareholder is Dajia Life Insurance, and the shareholding of private enterprises is relatively dispersed. As of the end of 2024, related - party loans accounted for only 1.64% of the total loans, meeting regulatory requirements [2][6][7]. - **Reasonable Board and Management Structure**: In 2024, there were significant personnel changes in the board of directors and management. Most executives were promoted internally, and a few were from large state - owned banks. The board structure is reasonable, with diversified members and high operational independence. Private shareholders have weak influence on bank operations [14][15][16]. 3.2 Asset Scale and Structure - **Large Asset Scale and Main Investment in Loans and Bonds**: From 2020 - 2024, the average annual compound growth rate of Minsheng Bank's assets was 2.98%. As of the end of 2024, its total assets were 7.81 trillion yuan, the largest among banks in the first group of system - important banks. Loans and financial investments accounted for over 80% of total assets [19][26]. - **Steady Loan Growth and Industry Structure Optimization**: From 2017 - 2024, the average annual compound growth rate of loans was 7.04%. As of Q1 2025, loans accounted for 57.36% of total assets. The proportion of real estate loans has been decreasing, while that of infrastructure - related industries has been increasing. As of the end of 2024, the loans of the top ten borrowing customers accounted for 1.72% of the total loans, indicating a low loan concentration [28][34][41]. - **Government Bond - Based Financial Investments with Low Credit Risk**: As of the end of 2024, financial investments accounted for 30.69% of total assets, with bond investments accounting for about 89.42%. Government bonds accounted for 63.82%, and the credit risk of the investment portfolio was low [45][49]. 3.3 Non - Performing Asset Disposal and Asset Quality - **Resolution of Existing Non - Performing Assets**: From 2020 - 2022, Minsheng Bank cleared and disposed of over 300 billion yuan of non - performing and potentially risky assets. As of the end of 2024, the non - performing loan rate, non - performing loan generation rate, and migration rate of normal and special - mention loans had declined for four consecutive years [52][71]. - **Improvement in Asset Quality Indicators**: The non - performing loan generation rate decreased from 3.63% at the end of 2020 to 1.49% at the end of 2024. The non - performing loan rate at the end of 2024 was 1.47%. Although the overdue loan rate and the proportion of restructured loans increased in 2024, the overall asset quality is improving [71][72][75]. 3.4 Liability Structure and Operating Performance - **Optimized Liability Structure and Good Liquidity Indicators**: From 2022 - 2024, the proportion of deposits in liabilities was about 60%. The reliance on inter - bank liabilities decreased, while the scale of bonds payable increased. As of the end of 2024, liquidity regulatory indicators met regulatory requirements, and capital adequacy indicators remained stable [80][85][90]. - **Potential Turnaround in Operating Performance**: From 2020 - 2024, operating income and net profit declined. However, in Q1 2025, the revenue growth rate was high. The net interest margin in 2024 was at a low level in the industry, but with the downward adjustment of deposit rates, the net interest margin is expected to stabilize [98][103][114]. 3.5 Investment Value of Minsheng Bank's Capital Bonds - **Fundamental Improvement and Potential Performance Growth**: Existing non - performing assets are basically resolved, and based on assumptions such as loan industry structure optimization and improved asset quality, Minsheng Bank's performance is expected to improve slightly in the next three years [120][122]. - **Low Credit Risk of Capital Bonds**: Minsheng Bank's existing capital tools amount to 175 billion yuan, with normal interest payments and all previous capital tools actively redeemed at maturity. The yields of its Tier 2 and perpetual bonds are higher than the industry average, but the market may have overestimated its credit risk. The bonds have low credit risk due to factors such as high trigger thresholds for write - down or conversion and the bank's safety - rated central bank financial institution rating [123][124][128].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5][10]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a core asset in uranium resources, benefiting from the global nuclear power recovery and a new long-term pricing mechanism that enhances performance expectations [5]. - Backed by China General Nuclear Power Group, the company has a leading global resource layout and long-term growth potential, being the only pure uranium listed company in East Asia [5][10]. - The company has a dual-driven model of "self-produced + international trade," which stabilizes growth and profitability [6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price is HKD 2.26, with a market capitalization of HKD 17,177.54 million [3]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 86.24 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17%, with a net profit of HKD 3.42 billion [6][21]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are HKD 5.73 billion, HKD 9.42 billion, and HKD 11.83 billion, reflecting growth rates of 67.5%, 64.4%, and 25.6% respectively [8][10]. Business Model - The business model consists of self-produced trade and international trade, with the international trade segment providing stable profit through price differences [19]. - The company holds a 49% equity stake in several uranium mines in Kazakhstan, ensuring a stable supply and cost advantage [5][41]. Pricing Mechanism - The new pricing mechanism for 2026-2028 includes a base price (BP) and spot price (SP) structure, with BP set to increase annually, enhancing profit margins [6][49]. Market Outlook - The global nuclear power revival is expected to drive uranium demand, with an average annual growth rate of over 4% from 2024 to 2040 [7]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the tightening supply of uranium due to high resource concentration and declining exploration investments [7]. Valuation - The company’s projected P/E ratio for 2026 is 18X, which is below the industry average of 29X, indicating potential undervaluation [10].