Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage in the sector [5][9]. Core Insights - The company specializes in alkaline zinc-manganese batteries and lithium-ion batteries, achieving breakthroughs in semi-solid state technology and completing the development of drone batteries [5][6]. - The rapid development of smart home and IoT industries is expected to benefit the zinc-manganese and lithium-ion battery sectors significantly [5][11]. - The company is positioned to leverage the growing demand in various markets, including smart home appliances, IoT devices, and electric tools, with projected revenue growth in these areas [5][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Growth and Market Potential - The global market for zinc-manganese batteries is primarily dominated by manufacturers in China, the US, and Japan, with significant market shares held by brands like Energizer and Panasonic [5][21]. - The smart home market in China is projected to exceed 800 billion yuan by 2025, while the IoT market is expected to reach 4.55 trillion yuan [5][28][31]. - The lithium-ion battery sector is anticipated to see a production increase to 1,170 GWh in China by 2024, capturing a 76% share of the global market [5][33]. 2. Company Overview and Financial Performance - The company, established in October 2006, is a national high-tech enterprise with a production capacity of 3.5 billion alkaline batteries and 500 million lithium-ion batteries annually [6][43]. - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenues of 2.018 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24%, and a net profit of 111.16 million yuan, up 29% year-on-year [6][63]. - The company is expanding its manufacturing base with new plants in Thailand, aiming to enhance its production capabilities and supply chain efficiency [6][55]. 3. Product Development and Technological Advancements - The company is actively exploring new materials and technologies in its alkaline battery segment, focusing on performance, leakage resistance, and cost efficiency [6][12]. - Significant progress has been made in the development of high-rate lithium batteries, with new production lines for 21700 and 18650 batteries launched in 2025 [6][12]. - The polymer lithium battery segment is also advancing, with projects aimed at drone applications and other emerging markets [6][12]. 4. Profitability Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 238 million, 302 million, and 380 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 28.2, 22.3, and 17.7 [7][9]. - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for its products in various sectors, including consumer electronics and electric tools, as well as from its strategic expansion efforts [5][11].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - The swine industry has entered a loss-making phase, with policies aimed at reducing internal competition likely to continue, suggesting a focus on cost-efficient leading companies [3][5] - The latest weekly pig price is 13.15 CNY/kg (down 0.37 CNY/kg week-on-week), indicating the industry is in a loss zone, with a potential stabilization of prices in the future [5][15] - The agricultural policy is undergoing a significant transformation, emphasizing the protection of farmers' rights and the activation of corporate innovation, which may lead to a focus on technology and innovative business models [6][16] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The swine industry is experiencing capacity control measures, with a recent meeting involving 25 pig enterprises to implement production capacity adjustments [6][15] - The average weight of pigs at market is 128.45 kg (up 0.13 kg week-on-week), while the price of 15 kg piglets is 358 CNY/head (down 36 CNY/head) [5][15] - The report suggests that leading companies with cost advantages and community engagement will benefit from excess profits and valuation premiums [6][16] 2. Poultry Industry - The chicken industry faces a persistent contradiction of "high capacity, weak consumption," leading to losses that may force breeding farms to reduce capacity [7][17] - The price of chicken chicks is 3.40 CNY/bird (up 7.9% week-on-week), while the price of broilers is 3.38 CNY/kg (down 1.46% week-on-week) [7][17] - Focus on companies with improving ROE and sustainable growth, particularly high-quality imported breeding stock and integrated enterprises [7][17] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Hai Da Group due to improved management effectiveness and increased capacity utilization, leading to growth in volume and profit [8][18] - The prices of various fish species have shown mixed trends, with some experiencing significant year-on-year declines [8][18] 4. Pet Industry - The pet industry is seeing a consolidation of leading brands, with expectations of recovery in the third quarter following a weak second quarter [10][20] - Continued focus on strong domestic brands and companies with good performance in overseas markets [10][20] 5. Agricultural Products - The USDA's September report is bearish, with adjustments in soybean planting area and yield forecasts impacting market expectations [11][21] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring U.S.-China trade negotiations and weather conditions affecting soybean planting [11][21] 6. Market and Price Situation - The agricultural index has decreased by 2.70% compared to the previous week, with the overall market showing mixed performance [22][29] - The report notes the impact of external factors such as African swine fever outbreaks in neighboring countries on market stability [50]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - Infrastructure investment remains resilient, with electricity, heat, gas, and water sectors leading the growth. From January to August 2025, national infrastructure investment continued to show moderate growth, with narrow infrastructure (excluding electricity) reaching 11.58 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%. Broad infrastructure totaled 15.76 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.42%, significantly higher than the narrow measure, mainly supported by high-growth sectors like electricity. In August, narrow infrastructure saw a year-on-year decline of 5.85%, while broad infrastructure declined by 6.42%, indicating a slowdown in overall momentum. [5][10] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Viewpoints - Infrastructure investment shows resilience, with electricity, heat, gas, and water sectors leading the growth. [10] - Future outlook suggests that despite a phase of slowdown in infrastructure investment, key projects like the New Tibet Railway and the lower reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project are expected to support overall investment. [10] 2. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.30%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.14%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.34%. The Shenwan Construction Decoration Index rose by 0.44%, with sub-sectors like housing construction and engineering consulting services showing notable gains. [14] - Top-performing stocks included Longjian Road & Bridge (+31.70%), Sentai Holdings (+29.14%), and Jiankang Institute (+27.40%). [14] 3. Infrastructure Data Tracking - Special bonds issued this week totaled 143.916 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 6.2697 trillion yuan, up 45.02% year-on-year. [21] - Urban investment bonds issued this week amounted to 89.345 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of 8.891 billion yuan, leading to a cumulative net financing deficit of 373.946 billion yuan. [21] 4. Company Dynamics - Notable contract announcements include Mongolian Grass Ecological's contract worth 225 million yuan for a project in Inner Mongolia, and China Power Construction's new contracts totaling 800.797 billion yuan from January to August 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.71%. [29][30]

Policy and Market Trends - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and eight other departments issued a plan aiming for approximately 32.3 million vehicle sales in 2025, a year-on-year growth of about 3%[7] - The plan emphasizes the core position of intelligent development and promotes the industrial application of intelligent network technology, including the approval of L3 level vehicles for conditional autonomous driving[13] Industry Analysis - The market for automotive-grade SoC (System on Chip) in China is projected to reach 38.1 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 42.7%[26] - SoC chips have become the mainstream intelligent driving chips due to their enhanced computing power and data transmission efficiency, addressing the challenges faced by traditional MCU chips[21] Stock Performance - The median price change for technology growth stocks on the Beijing Stock Exchange was -1.84% from September 15 to September 19, 2025, with 43 companies (28%) experiencing an increase[45] - Notable gainers included Kaiter Co. (+33.76%), Anhui Phoenix (+19.99%), and Tianhong Lithium (+19.11%) during the same period[45] Valuation Metrics - The median TTM (Trailing Twelve Months) P/E ratio for the automotive industry increased by 2.96% to 38.2X, while the electronic equipment industry saw a decrease from 63.1X to 60.7X[45] - The median market capitalization for the automotive industry rose from 22.1 billion yuan to 22.6 billion yuan[45] Company Developments - Kaiter Co. specializes in automotive sensors and has a market capitalization of 7.728 billion yuan with a TTM P/E ratio of 47.65[44] - Aweit intends to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary in Anhui Province with a registered capital of 30 million yuan[39]

Group 1: Construction and Building Materials Industry - The construction sector is experiencing profit pressure, with the overall revenue for the first half of 2025 at 3.97 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.02%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 91.5 billion yuan, down 6.60% year-on-year [6][7] - Despite the overall decline, the gap between revenue and net profit growth rates has narrowed compared to the first half of 2024, indicating a potential easing of profit pressure [6][7] - The sector's profitability is expected to gradually improve due to the implementation of 4.4 trillion yuan in special bond quotas and ongoing investment stabilization policies [6][10] - The performance of sub-industries is mixed, with the landscaping sector showing signs of recovery, while other segments like decoration and local construction companies faced declines [8][9] - Central enterprises have seen stable order growth, with new signed orders totaling 7.79 trillion yuan, a slight increase of 0.17% year-on-year, and a significant rise in overseas orders by 16.35% [9] Group 2: Tourism and Consumer Services - Domestic travel participation increased by 20.6% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with strong booking trends for the upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [12][13] - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have introduced policies to expand service consumption, particularly in culture and tourism, which is expected to boost consumer spending during the holidays [12] - The stock performance of consumer service companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange has shown a median decline of 2.46%, with a few companies experiencing notable gains [13] Group 3: Energy and Coal Industry - In August 2025, raw coal production decreased by 3.2% year-on-year, continuing a trend of negative growth for two consecutive months, driven by government measures to curb overproduction [17][18] - The coal import volume has also seen a decline, with a 12.2% year-on-year drop in the first eight months of 2025, indicating a tightening supply situation [18][19] - The coal industry is expected to enter a new phase of supply-demand rebalancing, with a potential price floor of 700 yuan per ton, which could support sustainable profits for leading coal companies [19] Group 4: Media and Entertainment Industry - The game "Delta Action" topped the iOS sales chart, indicating strong performance in the gaming sector, with high engagement metrics [21][22] - The industry is witnessing a trend towards high-frequency content updates, which are expected to enhance revenue stability for gaming companies [21][22] - The film and television sector is also poised for growth, with new policies aimed at increasing the supply of quality content and supporting the production of various media formats [24][28] Group 5: Precious Metals Industry - Gold and silver prices have been rising, with gold reaching 3,663.15 USD per ounce, driven by recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [31][32] - The upcoming IPO of Zijin Gold is expected to elevate the valuation levels of the precious metals sector, as it aims to raise significant capital [35][36] - The overall demand for gold is projected to remain strong, supported by central bank purchases and investment demand, which could further bolster gold prices [34][36]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights improvements in gross margin and expense ratio, with expectations for a peak in deliveries this year [4] - The company achieved a revenue of 37.62 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.91 billion yuan, up 12.9% year-on-year [7] - The report anticipates significant earnings elasticity due to a peak in coal and nuclear power deliveries in 2025, supported by a robust order backlog [7] Financial Summary - The company's revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 82.43 billion yuan, 87.34 billion yuan, and 91.09 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.18%, 5.95%, and 4.30% respectively [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 4.06 billion yuan, 4.73 billion yuan, and 5.44 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with growth rates of 39%, 17%, and 15% respectively [7] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 15.79, 13.56, and 11.78 respectively [6][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - Consumption shows significant differentiation, with strong resilience in service and online demand, while commodity consumption remains under pressure. In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4.0 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, down 0.3 pct from the previous month and has declined for three consecutive months. The year-on-year growth rate of service retail sales is faster than that of commodity retail sales. Some industry policies are optimized to offset the downward pressure. Domestic policies focus on consumption expansion and industrial upgrading. However, real estate risks are still not cleared. The average housing price in 100 cities across the country has dropped by more than 33% from the peak, and the average decline in first-tier cities has reached 29.5%. Currently, housing prices have not stopped falling. The economic structural contradictions are prominent, and further interest rate cuts, optimization of mortgage rates, and expansion of fiscal deficits may be needed to support growth. The bond market fluctuates in the short term, and the expectation of easing in the fourth quarter is rising. The report is bullish on the bond market in the short term. The bond market is insensitive to economic data. In the past quarter, the bond market trend has deviated significantly from the economic fundamentals. The short-term suppression of the bond market mainly comes from the stock market. As the stock investment ratio of institutional funds such as annuities reaches a high level, the actual impact of the stock market on the bond market may gradually weaken. Looking forward, with the start of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle and the weak recovery momentum of the domestic economy, the probability of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter increases, and the yield of 10Y treasury bonds may drop to 1.65%. Although the short-term bond market may be disturbed by the risk appetite of the stock market, its allocation value is prominent under the support of fundamentals. [1][8][82] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - In August, the consumption growth rate continued to decline, with prominent performance in service consumption and online consumption. The total retail sales of consumer goods in August was 4.0 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, down 0.3 pct from the previous month and has declined for three consecutive months. From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6% year-on-year, down 0.2 pct from January to July. In terms of sub-items, from January to August, the year-on-year growth rates of commodity retail sales and service retail sales were 4.8% and 5.1% respectively, down 0.1 pct from January to July [9]. - On September 16, nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued "Several Policy Measures to Expand Service Consumption", proposing 19 measures in five aspects [16]. - The Shanghai Municipal Finance Bureau issued a notice to optimize and adjust the personal housing property tax pilot policy, stating that homebuyers who hold a Shanghai residence permit for three years and work and live in Shanghai and purchase a new home in Shanghai as their family's first home are temporarily exempt from property tax [16]. - On September 18, the Fed announced a 25BP interest rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.00%-4.25%, in line with market expectations. The interest rate dot plot shows that the median expectation of Fed officials is that there will be two more 25BP interest rate cuts this year, one more than the prediction in June [16]. 3.2 Meso-High Frequency Data 3.2.1 Consumption - As of September 14, the average daily retail volume of passenger car manufacturers was 6.1 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, and the average daily wholesale volume was 6.7 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4% [15]. - As of September 18, the total national movie box office revenue in the past 7 days was 614.469 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.3% [15]. - As of August 29, the total retail volume of three major household appliances was 1.337 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.9%, and the total retail sales were 3.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [20]. 3.2.2 Transportation - As of September 14, the container throughput of ports in the current week was 6.652 million twenty-foot equivalent units, a year-on-year increase of 10.1% [23]. - As of September 19, the average migration scale index in the past 7 days was 496.3, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4% [23]. - As of September 14, the postal express pick-up volume in the current week was 3.83 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 8.5% [29]. - As of September 14, the railway freight volume in the current week was 80.434 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, and the highway truck traffic volume was 57.712 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6% [31]. 3.2.3 Operating Rate - As of September 17, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises in the country was 78.1%, a year-on-year increase of 2.9 pct. As of September 18, the average asphalt operating rate was 26.0%, a year-on-year increase of 3.0 pct [36]. - As of September 18, the soda ash operating rate was 85.8%, a year-on-year increase of 6.9 pct, and the PVC operating rate was 76.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2 pct. As of September 19, the average PX operating rate was 86.8%, and the average PTA operating rate was 78.1% [39]. 3.2.4 Real Estate - As of September 19, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium-sized cities in the past 7 days was 1.731 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 51.1% [43]. - As of September 12, the second-hand housing transaction area in 9 sample cities was 1.598 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [47]. 3.2.5 Prices - As of September 19, the average pork wholesale price was 19.7 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 26.6%, and a decrease of 2.0% compared to four weeks ago. The average vegetable wholesale price was 5.0 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 20.7%, and an increase of 3.4% compared to four weeks ago. The average wholesale price of 6 key fruits was 6.8 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%, and a decrease of 1.0% compared to four weeks ago [50]. - As of September 19, the average price of thermal coal at northern ports was 689.0 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 19.8%, and a decrease of 1.3% compared to four weeks ago. The average spot price of WTI crude oil was 63.3 US dollars/barrel, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%, and an increase of 0.6% compared to four weeks ago [55][56]. - As of September 19, the average spot price of rebar was 3144.2 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%, and a decrease of 3.2% compared to four weeks ago. The average spot price of iron ore was 809.4 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, and an increase of 3.3% compared to four weeks ago [60]. 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On September 19, the overnight Shibor was 1.46%, up 5.30BP from September 15. R001 was 1.50%, up 5.19BP from September 15; R007 was 1.52%, up 3.29BP from September 15. DR001 was 1.46%, up 5.04BP from September 15; DR007 was 1.51%, up 2.64BP from September 15. IBO001 was 1.50%, up 5.24BP from September 15; IBO007 was 1.54%, up 1.67BP from September 15 [63]. - Most treasury bond yields increased. On September 19, the yields to maturity of 1-year/5-year/10-year/30-year treasury bonds were 1.39%/1.62%/1.87%/2.20% respectively, down 1.0BP/up 0.5BP/up 0.8BP/up 1.7BP from September 12. The yields to maturity of 1-year/5-year/10-year/30-year China Development Bank bonds were 1.60%/1.79%/2.02%/2.29% respectively, up 2.1BP/down 2.9BP/down 0.9BP/up 2.7BP from September 12 [65]. - On September 19, the yields to maturity of 1-year/5-year/10-year local government bonds were 1.54%/1.83%/2.02% respectively, unchanged/down 1.5BP/down 0.4BP from September 12. The yields to maturity of AAA 1-month/1-year and AA+ 1-month/1-year interbank certificates of deposit were 1.58%/1.68%/1.60%/1.71% respectively, up 2.5BP/up 0.4BP/up 2.5BP/up 0.4BP from September 12 [67]. - As of September 19, 2025, the 10-year treasury bond yields of the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, and Germany were 4.1%, 1.6%, 4.7%, and 2.8% respectively, up 8BP/4BP/4BP/4BP from September 12 [73]. - On September 19, the central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB were 7.11/7.11 respectively, up 109/-99 pips from September 12 [76]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium- and long-term pure bond funds for interest rate bonds has shown a trend of first decreasing, then increasing, and then decreasing. In the past month, it has been decreasing overall. On September 19, 2025, the estimated median duration was about 4.6 years, a decrease of about 0.2 years compared to last week (September 12) [79]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium- and long-term pure bond funds for credit bonds has shown a fluctuating trend. In the past month, the duration has increased rapidly and then fluctuated. On September 19, 2025, the estimated average duration was about 3.1 years, and the estimated median duration was about 3.0 years, an increase of about 0.03 years compared to last week (September 12) [81]. 3.5 Investment Suggestions - The bond market fluctuates in the short term, and the expectation of easing in the fourth quarter is rising. The report is bullish on the bond market in the short term. The bond market is insensitive to economic data. In the past quarter, the bond market trend has deviated significantly from the economic fundamentals. The short-term suppression of the bond market mainly comes from the stock market. As the stock investment ratio of institutional funds such as annuities reaches a high level, the actual impact of the stock market on the bond market may gradually weaken. Looking forward, with the start of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle and the weak recovery momentum of the domestic economy, the probability of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter increases, and the yield of 10Y treasury bonds may drop to 1.65%. Although the short-term bond market may be disturbed by the risk appetite of the stock market, its allocation value is prominent under the support of fundamentals [84].

Report Information - Report Title: Credit ABS Market Characteristics and Investment Opportunities Inventory - Report Date: September 22, 2025 - Analysts: Liao Zhiming, Zhang Yifan 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The issuance volume of credit ABS has decreased in recent years due to factors such as weak social financing demand and slow credit scale growth in China. In H1 2025, 102 credit ABS were issued, with a total issuance scale of RMB 95.885 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22.9% and a decrease of about 77% compared to H1 2021. Since 2023, no RMBS products have been issued, and NPL ABS and auto mortgage ABS have become increasingly important, accounting for 37.8% and 35.8% of the total credit ABS issuance scale in H1 2025 respectively [3][6]. - The investor structure of credit ABS is relatively concentrated, with commercial banks being the largest investors, holding RMB 651.102 billion, accounting for 67.3% of the total credit ABS scale as of the end of July 2025. Different types of investors have different motivations and constraints for investing in credit ABS [3]. - The NPLS issuance scale reached a record high in 2024, and the RMBS performance has been relatively stable, with the early repayment pressure easing since H2 2024. The issuance proportion of green Auto ABS has been increasing year by year [3]. - There are investment opportunities in credit ABS. For NPLS, investors can focus on individual bonds with a ChinaBond valuation higher than 2.1%, a sub - layer ratio exceeding 24.5%, an actual/expected recovery ratio greater than 1.2, more than 5,200 underlying assets, and a bond rating of AAA. For RMBS, investors can focus on individual bonds with a bond rating of AAA, a ChinaBond valuation exceeding 1.9%, a sub - layer ratio higher than 12%, an expected recovery ratio exceeding 50%, more than 2,000 underlying assets, and a cumulative default rate lower than 0.5% [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Credit ABS Product Characteristics 3.1.1 Primary Market Supply Characteristics - Since 2005, China has carried out credit asset securitization business, which has developed rapidly and diversified. In recent years, due to weak social financing demand and slow credit scale growth, the issuance volume of credit ABS has decreased. In H1 2025, 102 credit ABS were issued, with a total issuance scale of RMB 95.885 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 22.88% in scale and an increase of 18.60% in the number of issuances compared to the previous year, and a decrease of about 77% compared to H1 2021 [6]. - As of the end of July 2025, the custody scale of credit ABS products was RMB 966.822 billion, a decrease of 14.53% compared to the end of 2024. The significant reduction in RMBS issuance is the key factor for the contraction of credit ABS scale [9]. - Credit ABS is regulated by the National Financial Regulatory Administration, and its initiators include various financial institutions. Its trading venue is the inter - bank market, and it can be publicly or privately offered. The underlying assets can be divided into retail loans, corporate loans, and non - performing loans [12]. - From 2015 to 2021, the issuance scale of credit ABS grew rapidly, but since 2021, it has declined. Currently, auto mortgage ABS, small and micro - enterprise loan ABS, and NPLS are growing, and NPL ABS and auto mortgage ABS have become increasingly important, accounting for 37.79% and 35.82% of the total credit ABS issuance scale in H1 2025 respectively [14]. 3.1.2 Secondary Market Trading Characteristics - Since 2020, credit ABS has maintained a higher yield than policy financial bonds and credit bonds of the same term, but the yield spread has been narrowing [17]. - Before 2016, the secondary market trading of credit ABS was mainly concentrated in corporate loan ABS. After 2016, RMBS became the mainstream due to the booming real estate market. However, since 2023, the early repayment rate of RMBS has increased, leading to a contraction in its scale and a shift in trading focus to other products [19]. 3.2 Credit ABS Investor Structure Characteristics - As of the end of July 2025, commercial banks were the largest investors in credit ABS, holding RMB 651.102 billion, accounting for 67.34% of the total credit ABS scale. The investment direction of non - legal person products also generally represents the investment preference of commercial banks [23]. 3.2.1 Motivation and Constraints for Commercial Banks to Participate in Credit ABS Investment - The risk capital measurement rules have an important impact on commercial banks' investment in credit ABS. The new rules have refined the risk weight calculation methods, and the risk weights of high - rated and senior - tranche asset - backed securities have decreased significantly. However, commercial banks have a low investment willingness for non - performing loan securitization products and non - senior tranches due to their high risk weights [25][26]. 3.2.2 Influencing Factors for Other Types of Investors to Participate in Credit ABS Investment - **Mutual Funds**: Asset - backed securities are classified as illiquid assets, so mutual funds have a low participation rate. The investment proportion limit also restricts the investment of fund special accounts and securities company collective asset management products in credit ABS [31]. - **Asset Management Products**: Investment proportion restrictions limit the possibility of asset management products participating in securitized sub - products. However, trust plans and private funds have become more active investors in sub - products [32]. - **Insurance Companies**: After the implementation of the second - generation solvency regulations, the risk capital occupation of ABS is the same as that of bonds, and the scope of ABS products and managers that insurance institutions can invest in has been broadened. However, insurance institutions are prohibited from investing in ABS sub - shares, NPL ABS, and credit ABS with watch - list loans as underlying assets. In practice, insurance institutions have limited participation in credit ABS investment due to the short - term nature of ABS not matching their long - term liabilities [39][40]. 3.3 Credit ABS Sub - product Credit Performance - RMBS has maintained a relatively low cumulative default rate, and the early repayment pressure has eased since H2 2024. Due to the weak real estate market, the possibility of a significant increase in RMBS issuance scale is low [43]. - In recent years, the pressure on commercial banks to dispose of non - performing assets has increased. In 2024, the issuance scale of public NPLS in the inter - bank market reached a record high of RMB 50.867 billion, mainly composed of non - performing personal housing mortgage loans and non - performing credit card loans, with an increasing proportion of non - performing small and micro - enterprise loans [47]. - Since 2024, the average current issuance interest rates of small and micro - enterprise loan ABS and non - performing loan ABS have been relatively high, while that of personal auto loan ABS has been the lowest [48]. 3.4 Credit ABS Investment Opportunities Inventory - **NPLS**: Due to the higher actual recovery value of existing NPLS than the expected value, the market may underestimate its recovery ability. Institutions with strong due diligence and asset valuation capabilities can build a diversified NPLS investment portfolio to earn excess returns. It is recommended to focus on individual bonds with a ChinaBond valuation higher than 2.1%, a sub - layer ratio exceeding 24.5%, an actual/expected recovery ratio greater than 1.2, more than 5,200 underlying assets, and a bond rating of AAA [51]. - **RMBS**: In a low - interest - rate and volatile market environment, RMBS has high - quality collateral, a low default rate, and enhanced cash - flow stability. It is recommended to focus on individual bonds with a bond rating of AAA, a ChinaBond valuation exceeding 1.9%, a sub - layer ratio higher than 12%, an expected recovery ratio exceeding 50%, more than 2,000 underlying assets, and a cumulative default rate lower than 0.5% [51][54].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's performance is supported by water storage, leading to stable profits from coal-fired electricity generation [5] - The company reported a revenue of 25.7 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.18%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.795 billion yuan, an increase of 1.36% [7] - The company has a strong position in hydroelectric power, with significant potential for future growth in renewable energy projects [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 56.712 billion yuan (2023), 57.819 billion yuan (2024), 56.952 billion yuan (2025E), 59.840 billion yuan (2026E), and 62.124 billion yuan (2027E) [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 6.705 billion yuan (2023), 6.643 billion yuan (2024), 7.068 billion yuan (2025E), 7.471 billion yuan (2026E), and 7.736 billion yuan (2027E) [6] - The company’s average on-grid electricity price was 0.353 yuan/kWh in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 6.4% year-on-year [7] - The company has a total installed capacity of 44.09 million kW, with hydro, thermal, wind, and solar power contributing 21.3 million kW, 12.41 million kW, 3.99 million kW, and 5.85 million kW respectively [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The construction industry is experiencing revenue and profit pressure, but recovery momentum is gradually accumulating under supportive policies [4][8] - In the first half of 2025, the construction sector achieved revenue of 3.97 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.02%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 91.5 billion yuan, down 6.60% year-on-year [4][8] - Despite the overall decline, the gap between revenue and net profit growth rates has narrowed significantly compared to the first half of 2024, indicating a temporary easing of profit pressure [4][8] - The issuance of 4.4 trillion yuan in special bonds and ongoing investment stabilization policies are expected to gradually open up profit recovery space for the sector [4][8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The construction sector's revenue growth is slowing, with profits under pressure. In the first half of 2025, the sector's revenue decreased by 6.02% year-on-year, while net profit fell by 6.60% [8] - The revenue growth rate has declined by 3.04 percentage points compared to the first half of 2024, but the net profit growth rate has improved by 2.77 percentage points [8] - The overall gross margin for the construction sector in the first half of 2025 was 10.02%, down 0.16 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 2.87%, down 0.04 percentage points [13] Subsector Performance - The performance of subsectors is mixed, with the steel structure sector showing revenue growth of 2.02%, driven by overseas industrial building orders [4][32] - The landscaping sector and chemical engineering saw significant profit growth, with net profits increasing by 70.48% and 19.81% respectively [4][32] - The gross margin improvements are concentrated in landscaping, chemical engineering, and international engineering, while the net margin for steel structures and central enterprises has declined [34] Central Enterprises and Orders - In the first half of 2025, the nine major central construction enterprises signed new orders totaling 7.79 trillion yuan, a slight increase of 0.17% year-on-year, despite an overall industry decline [4][56] - The central enterprises' new orders in overseas markets grew by 16.35% year-on-year, becoming a significant support for order structure optimization [56] - The valuation of central enterprises remains low, with expected PE ratios around 5 times and PB ratios below 0.5 times, indicating strong shareholder returns [59]