Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage in this regard [4][6]. Core Views - The company is recognized as one of the leading players in the bulk supply chain sector, with a diversified layout that builds a competitive moat [4][5]. - The report highlights the company's strong market position and its ability to optimize business structure, which is expected to enhance its resilience and profitability despite current market challenges [8][36]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company, Xiamen International Trade Group Co., Ltd., was founded in 1980 and is a leader in the domestic bulk supply chain industry. It has diversified into health technology and supply chain management, with a significant portion of its revenue derived from these sectors [5][15]. Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 521,918 million RMB in 2022, with a projected decline to 370,336 million RMB in 2024, followed by a recovery to 411,111 million RMB in 2026 [4][6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease from 3,589 million RMB in 2022 to 1,123 million RMB in 2024, before rising to 1,878 million RMB in 2026 [4][6]. Market Position and Industry Dynamics - The bulk commodity supply chain market in China has been expanding, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.62% from 2018 to 2022. The market is transitioning from fragmented competition to a more concentrated structure, with the top four companies (CR4) increasing their market share from 2.19% in 2018 to 4.18% in 2022 [5][34]. - The company is positioned to benefit from this trend, leveraging its resource network, financial tools, and digital capabilities to enhance its competitive edge [8][34]. Business Strategy - The company is focused on optimizing its supply chain management services and expanding into high-value sectors, including health technology. The health technology segment is expected to grow significantly, contributing to the overall revenue [19][36]. - The report emphasizes the company's commitment to digital transformation and risk management, which are crucial for maintaining operational efficiency and enhancing service offerings [55][56]. Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the company are projected to be 12.2x in 2024, 8.9x in 2025, and 7.3x in 2026, indicating a favorable valuation compared to its peers [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [5][10]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a "small giant" in the intelligent monitoring sensor sector, with solid performance and a focus on shareholder returns. The engineering safety monitoring products are crucial for infrastructure construction, and the company is expected to benefit from new growth opportunities in the smart city transportation sector [5][10]. - The company has a robust order backlog and is experiencing significant growth in operating cash flow, alongside a stable dividend distribution policy since its listing in 2022 [6][10]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price of the stock is 13.87 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 1,934.83 million yuan and a circulating market value of 1,563.53 million yuan [3]. Financial Data - The company reported a total revenue of 299 million yuan in 2022, with a projected increase to 400 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.13% from 2023 to 2025 [8][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 73 million yuan in 2023 to 106 million yuan in 2026, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) increasing from 0.52 yuan to 0.76 yuan [10]. Investment Opportunities - The company is set to benefit from the Ministry of Transport's plan to enhance structural monitoring systems for bridges and tunnels by 2025, which will drive demand for its safety monitoring equipment [5][10]. - The company has a strong presence in the water conservancy and energy sectors, with national investments in water infrastructure reaching a historical high of 1.35 trillion yuan in 2024, which is expected to further boost demand for safety monitoring sensors [6][10]. Product Development - The company has increased its R&D investment, resulting in a diverse product matrix, including a well-received machine vision deformation monitoring system. As of June 30, 2024, the company holds 50 patents, showcasing its commitment to innovation [5][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the building materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market is showing signs of a "small spring," indicating potential investment opportunities in the sector. The second-hand housing market has begun to stabilize, with a significant increase in transactions in key cities compared to previous years [2][13] - The construction resumption rate is still slower than previous years, but the decline in funding availability has narrowed, suggesting a gradual recovery in the industry [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of liquidity improvement and suggests that the number of companies in the building materials sector showing year-on-year growth will likely exceed last year [2] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Tracking - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.0%, while the building materials index fell by 1.0%. Notable stock performances include Sichuan Jinding (+43.5%) and Keren Shares (+12.9%) [9] - The report highlights the performance of various segments within the building materials sector, including cement and glass fiber, which experienced declines [9] 2. Data Tracking 2.1 Cement - The average price of 42.5 cement is 395.7 CNY/ton, down 5.7 CNY/ton from the previous period but up 36.3 CNY/ton year-on-year. The cement shipment rate is 22.4%, showing a 10.7 percentage point increase [14] 2.2 Float Glass - The average price of 5mm float glass is 1504.9 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 1.3 CNY/ton from the previous period but a decrease of 682.6 CNY/ton year-on-year [24] 2.3 Photovoltaic Glass - The average price for 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass is 12.0 CNY/sqm, unchanged from the previous period but down 4.4 CNY/sqm year-on-year [28] 2.4 Glass Fiber - The average price of non-alkali glass fiber yarn is 4715.0 CNY/ton, stable compared to the previous period but up 740.0 CNY/ton year-on-year [35] 2.5 Carbon Fiber - The average price of large tow carbon fiber is 72.5 CNY/kg, unchanged from the previous period but down 2.0 CNY/kg year-on-year [38] 3. Investment Analysis - The report suggests focusing on three areas: policy-driven opportunities (e.g., Conch Cement), growth potential (e.g., Three Trees, Oriental Yuhong), and liquidity-driven opportunities (e.g., COFCO Technology) [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio to no less than 60% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, enhancing its attractiveness through high dividend yields [6][4] - The infrastructure investment in Sichuan province is expected to continue growing, with plans to exceed 280 billion yuan in transportation construction investment in 2025, which will benefit the company [6] - The company is projected to achieve steady growth in performance, supported by a favorable infrastructure environment and strong backing from its major shareholder, Shudao Group [6] Financial Summary - The company's total market capitalization is approximately 60,985.85 million yuan, with a circulating market value of 46,925.48 million yuan [2] - The company's revenue is forecasted to decline from 135,151 million yuan in 2022 to 104,590 million yuan in 2024, before recovering to 122,705 million yuan by 2026 [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease from 11,213 million yuan in 2022 to 8,018 million yuan in 2024, with a projected increase to 9,538 million yuan by 2026 [5] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.29 yuan in 2022, declining to 0.92 yuan in 2024, and recovering to 1.09 yuan by 2026 [5] - The company maintains a high return on equity (ROE) of 26.83% in 2022, projected to decrease to 16.32% in 2024, and stabilize around 16.39% by 2026 [5] Dividend Policy - The company has committed to a dividend payout ratio of at least 60% of net profit for the years 2025 to 2027, an increase from the previous commitment of 50% [6] - The projected dividend yields for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are expected to be 6.6%, 8.5%, and 9.4% respectively, highlighting the company's strong dividend characteristics [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2][4] Core Viewpoints - The gold price remains high and fluctuates due to persistent inflation logic, despite easing geopolitical tensions [3][4] - Recent economic data indicates a "stagflation" characteristic, with January's US CPI rising 3% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's stance on inflation remains cautious, with no immediate rate changes anticipated, which supports gold prices [3][4] - The ongoing geopolitical discussions between Russia and the US may limit upward momentum for gold prices [3][4] - The report highlights that the global demand for gold is expected to reach a historical high of 4,974 tons in 2024, driven by strong central bank purchases [4] Price Trends - Over the past two weeks, London spot gold increased by 2.07% to $2,934.15 per ounce, while the Shanghai gold price rose by 2.17% to 684.44 yuan per gram [11][12] - London spot silver rose by 2.03% to $32.93 per ounce, and the Shanghai silver price increased by 0.58% to 8,102 yuan per kilogram [11][12] - The holding volume of Shanghai gold increased by 2.97% to 366,700 contracts, and Shanghai silver's holding volume surged by 18.54% to 778,000 contracts [11][12] Economic Data and Federal Reserve Tracking - The report notes that the January PPI also exceeded expectations, rising 0.4% month-on-month and 3.5% year-on-year, driven by food and energy prices [3][4] - The upcoming economic data releases, including initial jobless claims and core PCE price index, are crucial for market sentiment [3][4] Holdings and Trading Volume - The report provides insights into the trading volumes and positions in the COMEX and SHFE markets, indicating a robust interest in gold and silver [29][30] Price Differentials and Basis - The gold price differential between domestic and international markets is reported at 4.53 yuan per gram, while the silver price differential is 535.58 yuan per kilogram [36] - The international gold basis is -$15.45 per ounce, indicating a decrease, while the domestic gold basis is -1.22 yuan per gram, showing a slight increase [41]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a decline in the breeding stock of pigs as of January, with a counter-seasonal increase in weight. The latest pig price has dropped to 14.72 yuan/kg, while the average weight at slaughter has increased to 125.68 kg. The price of 15 kg piglets has decreased to 594 yuan/head. Short-term replenishment may support pig prices, but overall supply is expected to remain high, leading to a weak price outlook for the year [4][21]. - In the poultry sector, the report notes a general performance in terminal demand, with the price of chicken seedlings at 2.2 yuan/chick, unchanged month-on-month but down 48.84% year-on-year. The price of broiler chickens is 5.76 yuan/kg, up 1.05% month-on-month but down 27.09% year-on-year. The report emphasizes the concentration of industry profits towards upstream sources [6][22]. - The feed sector is recommended to focus on Hai Da Group, which is expected to see a cash flow turning point and high overseas growth. The report indicates that fish prices have risen while feed prices have fallen, leading to improved profitability in aquaculture for 2024 [7][24]. - The pet food market is experiencing a decline in sales, with a 7% year-on-year drop in sales during the first 30 days of the Lunar New Year. However, certain brands like Pei Ti have shown significant growth, suggesting a potential for recovery in the pet food sector [10][12][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The breeding stock of sows is at 40.62 million heads, exceeding the normal level of 39 million heads, indicating a potential overcapacity [21][43]. - The report suggests a shift from cyclical thinking to focusing on financial performance, recommending investment in leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [5][21]. 2. Poultry Industry - The report notes a recovery in production post-breeding suspension, with a focus on the profitability of parent stock and the concentration of profits towards upstream sources [6][22]. - Key investment targets include leading imported breeding stock companies and full-chain leaders like Shengnong Development [22]. 3. Feed Industry - The report indicates a recovery in aquaculture profitability and recommends Hai Da Group due to its stable cash flow and overseas growth potential [7][24]. - The report highlights the end of the capital expansion phase for leading companies, which are now entering a phase of stable cash flow [8][24]. 4. Pet Industry - The report shows a decline in pet food sales, with specific brands experiencing varied performance. It suggests focusing on brands that are showing growth potential [10][12][28]. - The report emphasizes the importance of brand performance in the pet food sector, particularly for companies like Guibao and Zhongpeng [12][27].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utility sector is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in coal prices, with the Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal price dropping below 720 CNY/ton, marking a 23.4% year-on-year decrease from 939 CNY/ton in 2024 [5][11] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a tight balance in global natural gas supply and demand for 2025, driven by slower growth in liquefaction capacity and increasing demand [6][19] Summary by Sections Coal Market Analysis - Since mid-November 2024, coal prices have been on a downward trend, with a notable increase in coal inventory at northern ports, which rose by 42% year-on-year as of February 17, 2025, reaching historical highs [5][12] - The report anticipates that the demand for thermal coal will remain resilient despite the impact of new energy installations, as the growth in electricity consumption is expected to match the new renewable energy generation [14][15] Natural Gas Market Analysis - The IEA forecasts a 1.9% increase in global natural gas consumption in 2025, reaching 4.292 trillion cubic meters, while production is expected to grow by 2.17% to 4.281 trillion cubic meters [20][21] - Key factors influencing the natural gas market include the projected 5% growth in liquefaction capacity in North America and reduced gas supplies from Russia to Europe, which may tighten global gas balances [20][25] Investment Opportunities - In the context of falling coal prices, the report suggests that the thermal power sector may present a buying opportunity, recommending companies such as Huadian International and Shenneng Co., Ltd. for their strong earnings elasticity [18]

Group 1 - The report highlights the upcoming performance announcements period, emphasizing companies with solid fundamentals and those positioning for a second growth curve [2][7] - As of February 21, 2025, 25 companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange have released their 2024 performance reports, with 10 companies showing growth in both revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders [3][8] - Companies with revenue and net profit growth exceeding 10% include Weimao Electronics, Juxing Technology, Langhong Technology, Hefei Gaoke, and Deyuan Pharmaceutical [3][9] Group 2 - Weimao Electronics expects a revenue of 260 million yuan (+14%) and a net profit of 44.69 million yuan (+15%) for 2024, driven by new projects in smart appliances and new energy vehicles [9] - Juxing Technology anticipates a revenue of 1 billion yuan (+66%) and a net profit of 116 million yuan (+51%) for 2024, benefiting from increased sales of various products [9] - Langhong Technology projects a revenue of 159 million yuan (+37%) and a net profit of 57.95 million yuan (+28%) for 2024, supported by a favorable consumer electronics market [9] Group 3 - The report notes that the overall PE ratio of the North Exchange A-shares has risen to 42X, indicating a recovery in valuations across the market [15][16] - The average daily trading volume for North Exchange A-shares remains above 30 billion yuan, with a weekly increase of 9.30% in the North 50 Index [3][14] - The North 50 Index closed at 1,345.29 points, reflecting a strong performance compared to other indices [21]

Group 1 - The successful launch of the "State Grid (GW) Constellation" for the second batch of satellite networking on February 11, 2025, enhances low-altitude economic capabilities through improved communication and monitoring services for low-altitude flying vehicles [14][16]. - The Chinese low-altitude economy market is projected to reach CNY 480.7 billion in 2024, with expectations to grow to CNY 1.39 trillion by 2029 and potentially exceed CNY 3.5 trillion by 2035, driven by policy implementation and industry development [29][31]. - The report identifies key companies in the low-altitude economy sector, including Weimao Electronics, Binhang Technology, and Minshida, which are involved in various aspects of low-altitude economic activities [14][16]. Group 2 - The median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the automotive industry has increased by 11% to 25.9X, indicating a positive trend in the sector [29]. - The median P/E ratio for the electronic equipment industry has risen from 48.7X to 52.8X, reflecting a growing valuation in this segment [29]. - The report highlights that the overall stock price change for the North Exchange technology growth stocks is +6.66%, with 86% of the 145 companies experiencing an increase [29].

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 02 月 23 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年02月21日 华源晨会精粹 固定收益 当前债市的 5 个关注点——中国债市展望：经济是否企稳了？24Q4 中国 名义 GDP 增速达 4.6%，较上季度上升了 0.6 个百分点，为 23Q3 以来最高。我们 认为，过往 3 年中国经济处于"房价及股市下跌-经济下行"的负循环之中。24Q4 以来，个税收入累计同比降幅明显收窄，2025 年 1 月末中国个人存款余额达 156.8 万亿元，潜在消费能力较强，如今负循环接近尾声，社会预期企稳改善，消费可能 复苏。此外，中美可能达成新的贸易协议，出口或继续超预期。全球资本重估中国 科技实力，股市明显回暖。房价或逐步止跌回稳，投资增速有望保持平稳。我们认 为，未来 2 年中国经济有望迎来企稳小反弹。此外，资金面紧平衡是否恶化银行净 息差？资金面紧平衡将持续多久？机构抱团超长债还能持续？债市短期能否企稳？ 我们对中国债市做出展望。 风险提示：政府债券供给超预期风险；银行自营投资债基监管政策带来债市波动； 2025 年债市负反馈风险。 金 ...