商贸零售 / 行业点评报告 / 2024.09.14 8 月社零同比+2.1%，必选优于可选 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -33% -25% -18% -11% -4% 3% 商贸零售 沪深300 分析师 于健 SAC 证书编号：S0160522060001 yujian@ctsec.com 联系人 王瑾瑜 wangjy03@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《7 月社零同比+2.7%，百货降幅扩 大》 2024-08-15 2. 《6 月社零同比+2.0%，可选品类有所 承压》 2024-07-15 3. 《超市持续改善，跨境电商 Q2 业绩 可期》 2024-07-03 8 月社零数据点评 核心观点 证券研究报告 ❖ 事件：统计局发布 8 月社零数据，8 月社零总额 3.87 万亿元，同比+2.1%，1- 8 月社零总额 31.25 万亿元，同比+3.4%。 ❖ 必选好于可选，珠宝降幅扩大。分消费类型看，8 月商品零售 3.44 万亿元， 同比+1.9%；餐饮收入 4351 亿元，同比+3.3%。商品零售增速环比回落，餐饮 环比略有上行。分品类看，必选韧性较强，粮油食品/饮料/烟酒/ ...

宏观月报 / 2024.09.14 政府债继续支撑社融 ——2024 年 8 月金融数据解读 证券研究报告 分析师 陈兴 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 分析师 谢钰 SAC 证书编号：S0160523080003 xieyu01@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《"细"节定成败——美国大选辩论及 8 月通胀数据解读》 2024-09-12 2. 《出口为何仍能上行？——8 月外贸 数据解读》 2024-09-10 3. 《核心物价创新低——8 月物价数据 解读》 2024-09-09 核心观点 ❖ 信贷总量仍弱结构不佳。8 月新增人民币贷款同比少增额扩大，信贷余额增 速进一步回落至 8.5%，一方面有防空转和挤水分因素的扰动，另一方面企业 和居民的加杠杆意愿仍低。信贷结构也印证了实体部门融资需求较弱，8 月居 民和企业部门新增短贷、中长贷同比均呈现少增态势，仅票据融资保持高增 长，同比持续多增，反映银行仍在以票冲贷。 ❖ 货币政策发力必要性提升。8 月以来，政府债发行大幅放量，在地方债供给 高峰整体后移的背景下，9 月、10 月的地方债供给规模或仍较 ...

汽车 / 行业专题报告 / 2024.09.13 汽车及零部件行业 2024 年中报总结 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -23% -17% -11% -5% 1% 7% 汽车 沪深300 上证指数 分析师 邢重阳 SAC 证书编号：S0160522110003 xingcy01@ctsec.com 分析师 李渤 SAC 证书编号：S0160521050001 libo@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《理想汽车公布 2024Q2 财报》 2024-09-11 2. 《汽车行业周报》 2024-09-11 3. 《上海市电动自行车以旧换新补贴政 策点评》 2024-09-05 证券研究报告 24Q2 整体业绩同比高增，以旧换新政策持续发力 核心观点 ❖ 板块 24Q2 业绩同比高增，行业景气度有望进一步提升：汽车行业 24Q2 实现销量 732.8 万辆，同比+2.3%。24Q2 汽车及零部件行业营收 9491.78 亿元， 同比+6.23%，归母净利润 433.21 亿元，同比+25.92%。展望 24Q3，我们认为 汽车板块景气度有望进一步提升：1）以旧换新政策翻倍落地，将显著促进存 ...

建筑材料 / 行业投资策略报告 / 2024.09.13 下游需求未见起色，盈利能力亦有承压 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -37% -30% -22% -14% -6% 2% 建筑材料 沪深300 上证指数 分析师 毕春晖 SAC 证书编号：S0160522070001 bich@ctsec.com | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-----------------------------| | | | | 相关报告 | | | 1. 《 B | 端消费建材减值计提专题研究— | | —涂料篇》 2024-09-11 | | | 2. 《建材行业策略周报》 | 2024-09-02 | | 3. 《建材行业策略周报》 | 2024-08-26 | 消费建材 2024 半年报总结 核心观点 证券研究报告 ❖ 2024 年以来地产需求底部调整，消费建材企业业绩分化：2024H1 房地 产政策持续宽松，730 政治局会议强调"支持收购存量房用作保障房"、央行 下调 1 年期和 5 年期 LPR 各 10bp，同时各地优化政策持续跟进下，上半年二 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its stock performance [1][2] Core Views - The report is optimistic about the company's long-term market share growth and product competitiveness [1] - The company's domestic revenue grew by 16.7% YoY in the first half of the year, while overseas revenue slightly declined by 7.89% [2] - The company's OBM (Own Brand Manufacturing) revenue, both domestic and international, reached 430 million yuan in 2023, a 2.3% increase YoY [2] - The company is advancing its capacity construction to enhance supply capabilities, with the first phase of its production base expansion project already operational [2] Financial Performance - The company reported revenue of 669 million yuan in the first half of 2024, a 5.68% YoY decrease, and a net profit of 203 million yuan, a 9.1% YoY decrease [2] - In Q2 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 51.13%, up 1.38 percentage points YoY, while the net margin was 29.15%, down 3.7 percentage points YoY [2] - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 1.503 billion yuan in 2024E to 2.048 billion yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 15.22% to 16.27% [4][5] - Net profit is projected to increase from 416 million yuan in 2024E to 586 million yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 13.49% to 18.26% [4][5] Valuation Metrics - The company's PE ratio is expected to decrease from 11.08x in 2024E to 7.86x in 2026E, indicating improving valuation attractiveness [4][5] - The PB ratio is forecasted to decline from 1.81x in 2024E to 1.44x in 2026E, reflecting potential undervaluation [4][5] - ROE is projected to increase from 16.33% in 2024E to 18.28% in 2026E, signaling improving profitability [4][5] Operational Efficiency - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 50.3% to 50.8% from 2024E to 2026E [5] - Operating margin is forecasted to improve slightly from 33.3% in 2024E to 34.5% in 2026E [5] - The company's asset turnover efficiency is expected to improve, with total asset turnover days decreasing from 653 days in 2024E to 597 days in 2026E [5] Growth Prospects - The company's revenue growth is driven by both domestic and international markets, with a focus on expanding its OBM business [2] - The company's capacity expansion is expected to support future revenue growth, with new production lines enhancing its ability to meet market demand [2] - The company's EPS is projected to grow from 3.29 yuan in 2024E to 4.63 yuan in 2026E, reflecting strong earnings growth potential [4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.529 billion yuan in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.73%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 709 million yuan, up 28.49% [3] - The sales expense ratio continues to optimize, with a gross margin of 31.51% in H1 2024, an increase of 1.07 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 9.85%, up 0.99 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company is optimistic about the growth potential of all-terrain vehicles and mid-to-large displacement motorcycles, supported by product structure upgrades and channel expansion [3] Financial Performance Summary - H1 2024 revenue: 75.29 billion yuan (+15.73%) - H1 2024 net profit: 7.09 billion yuan (+28.49%) - Q2 2024 revenue: 44.68 billion yuan (+23.20%) - Q2 2024 net profit: 4.31 billion yuan (+26.35%) [3] - H1 2024 gross margin: 31.51% (+1.07 percentage points YoY) - H1 2024 net profit margin: 9.85% (+0.99 percentage points YoY) [3] Sales Performance - All-terrain vehicle revenue: 3.532 billion yuan (-1.55%), with sales of 81,400 units (+3%) - Motorcycle revenue: 3.248 billion yuan (+41.95%), with sales of 153,900 units (+56%) - Electric two-wheeler revenue: 116 million yuan, with sales of 20,400 units, showing significant growth in both domestic and international channels [3] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.362 billion yuan, 1.698 billion yuan, and 2.114 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16, 13, and 11 [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [1] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the photovoltaic tracking bracket market, with a global market share of 9% as of 2023, ranking fifth worldwide according to Wood Mackenzie [2] - The company plans to raise 1.131 billion yuan through a targeted issuance to expand its photovoltaic bracket production capacity [2] - The economic benefits of tracking brackets are becoming increasingly evident, with a significant increase in penetration rates and a 26% year-on-year growth in total shipments of tracking brackets in 2023 [2] - The company has seen rapid growth in orders from emerging markets, particularly in India and the Middle East, with new signed orders in these regions exceeding 10 GW in the first half of 2024 [2] - Revenue projections for the company are 8.69 billion, 10.95 billion, and 13.24 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 684 million, 897 million, and 1.099 billion yuan [2] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has been deeply involved in the photovoltaic bracket industry for over a decade, with a focus on expanding into emerging markets [2][9] - The company has established a global presence, with significant projects in India and the Middle East, and has shipped nearly 68 GW of products globally by the end of 2023 [9] 2. Business Performance - The company's revenue from bracket sales has shown rapid growth, with a 61.9% year-on-year increase in 2022, and a strong recovery in profitability following a downturn in 2021 [13] - The tracking bracket business has seen a significant increase in revenue, growing by 124.2% year-on-year to 3.598 billion yuan in 2023 [15] 3. Market Dynamics - The tracking bracket market is experiencing a surge in demand, with global installations reaching 446 GW in 2023, a 89% year-on-year increase [20] - The company is benefiting from the growing demand for photovoltaic installations, particularly in the U.S. and emerging markets, with a projected increase in global tracking bracket shipments to over 80 GW in 2024 [21] 4. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 8.69 billion, 10.95 billion, and 13.24 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding net profits of 684 million, 897 million, and 1.099 billion yuan [2][4] - The projected PE ratios for the company are 18.97, 14.47, and 11.81 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2]

香港交易所(00388) / 非银金融 / 公司跟踪研究报告 / 2024.09.12 | --- | --- | |------------------------|------------| | 基本数据 | 2024-09-11 | | 收盘价 ( 港元 ) | 220.80 | | 流通股本 ( 亿股 ) | 12.68 | | 每股净资产 ( 港元 ) | 39.02 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 12.68 | | 最近 12 月市场表现 | | -28% -21% -13% -6% 2% 9% 香港交易所 恒生指数 分析师 许盈盈 SAC 证书编号：S0160522060002 xuyy02@ctsec.com 分析师 刘金金 SAC 证书编号：S0160524050001 liujj01@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《二季度交投活跃显著改善，上半年 整体业绩稳健》 2024-08-21 2. 《业绩继续改善，美联储降息交易或 重返市场主线》 2024-07-12 3. 《交投活跃度进一步改善，阿尔法优 势仍在》 2024-06-14 ❖ 市场环境方面：1）现货方面，8 月港股市场触 ...

"细"节定成败 ——美国大选辩论及 8 月通胀数据解读 证券研究报告 分析师 陈兴 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 联系人 马乐怡 maly@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《低通胀稳固降息预期——7 月美国 通胀数据解读》 2024-08-15 2. 《降息条件达成——6 月美国通胀数 据解读》 2024-07-12 3. 《通胀有所降温——5 月美国通胀数 据解读》 2024-06-13 宏观月报 / 2024.09.12 核心观点 ❖ 哈里斯首次辩论占优。哈里斯和特朗普进行首次总统竞选辩论，辩论结束 后，PredictIt 数据显示哈里斯的胜算从 53%上升至 57%。不过，从摇摆州形势 来看，特朗普或仍有余地，目前哈里斯仅在三个摇摆州领先，此外在票数最多 的宾夕法尼亚州，两人支持率持平。本次辩论中，两人均基本延续了此前竞选 活动中的主要政治主张，政见增量较少，但哈里斯宣传更细。对外关系方面， 哈里斯强调加强与盟友关系，并明确认为和中国是竞争关系，通过投资保证美 国在科技领域获胜；而特朗普仍然注重于贸易关税手段。 ❖ 能源项带动 CPI 大幅降温 ...

投资评级:增持(首次) 核心观点 | --- | --- | |------------------------|------------| | | | | 基本数据 | 2024-09-11 | | 收盘价 ( 元 ) | 28.86 | | 流通股本 ( 亿股 ) | 4.53 | | 每股净资产 ( 元 ) | 5.78 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 5.48 | | 最近 12 月市场表现 | | -25% -19% -13% -6% 0% 6% 华测导航 沪深300 分析师 杨烨 SAC 证书编号：S0160522050001 yangye01@ctsec.com 分析师 王妍丹 SAC 证书编号：S0160524040002 wangyd01@ctsec.com 相关报告 华测导航(300627) / 通信设备 / 公司深度研究报告 / 2024.09.11 高精定位龙头企业，低空打开新空间 证券研究报告 ❖ 高精定位龙头企业。公司成立于 2003 年，总部位于上海，深耕卫星导航定 位领域，主要业务包括高精度 GNSS 接收机、测量系统、地理信息系统（GIS）、 无人机导航和自动驾驶。公司产品 ...