农林牧渔 / 行业投资策略月报 / 2024.09.14 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -25% -19% -14% -8% -3% 3% 农林牧渔 沪深300 分析师 肖珮菁 SAC 证书编号：S0160524070005 xiaopj@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《8 月能繁增速放缓，补栏谨慎看好 养殖景气延续》 2024-09-08 2. 《猪价高位调整，补栏谨慎看好养殖 景气延续》 2024-09-01 3. 《8 月 USDA 上调全球小麦、大豆产 量预测》 2024-08-27 供需博弈，8 月猪价及鸡苗价均高位震荡 8 月畜禽养殖跟踪月报 核心观点 证券研究报告 ❖ 生猪养殖：猪价高位震荡，产能回补较慢。养殖户认卖较为积极，供应量 有所增加，需求端暂无好转，猪价高位震荡。据农业农村部，8 月生猪均价为 20.35 元/kg，月环比+9.10%，月同比+19.57%。8 月出栏均重有所增加，根据 涌益咨询，8 月全国平均商品猪出栏体重为 126.13kg，月环比+0.48%。8 月行 业产能增速显著放缓。由于盈利处于高位，北方此前受损产能有所修复，南方 部分中养殖场进行适 ...

电力设备 / 行业投资策略周报 / 2024.09.14 新能源车销量激增，风电市场活跃 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -29% -23% -17% -10% -4% 2% 电力设备 沪深300 上证指数 分析师 张一弛 SAC 证书编号：S0160522110002 zhangyc02@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《二季度光伏业绩见底出清加速，锂 电小幅改善》 2024-09-07 2. 《 大 储 电 网 基 本 面 继 续 亮 眼 》 2024-08-27 3. 《主产业链出清，各板块均在复苏》 2024-08-23 核心观点 周观点 证券研究报告 ❖ 光伏：本周光伏市场 POE 树脂价格显著下降，硅料微涨后稳定，组件价格小 幅下滑。广东本数光能科技公司全钙钛矿叠层电池效率创新高，华晟新能源科 技股份有限公司交付 1.8GW 异质结组件，中国电力建设股份有限公司启动 1.5GW N 型异质结组件招标，促进行业技术进步和市场扩展。 ❖ 锂电：8 月新能源乘用车的批发销量实现了显著增长，达到了 105.2 万辆。与 去年同期相比增长了 31.70%，而与 7 月相比，环比增长也达到 ...

轻工制造 / 行业投资策略周报 / 2024.09.15 天津江苏跟进补贴，关注相关家居转债 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -33% -26% -19% -13% -6% 1% 轻工制造 沪深300 分析师 吕明璋 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030001 lvmz@ctsec.com 联系人 何栋 hedong@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《8 月家具社零同比-3.7%，增速环比 下行》 2024-09-14 2. 《沪深出台家居补贴细则，电子烟新 规落地》 2024-09-08 3. 《政策提振家居需求，关注相关家居 转债》 2024-09-08 核心观点 证券研究报告 天津江苏跟进补贴，家居需求有望提振。本周天津发布《加力支持消费品 以旧换新工作实施方案》，《方案》提及支持家装等产品改造换新：结合旧房装 修、厨卫等局部改造、居家适老化改造、促进智能家居消费等需求，按照厨卫 家电焕新、智能家居消费和适老化产品购置三个方向制定补贴产品目录，原则 上按照产品销售价格 15%的比例给予个人消费者补贴。每位消费者每类产品 可补贴 1 件，每件补贴不超过 2000 元。此前江苏亦出台 ...

Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company plans to spin off its subsidiary, Goertek Micro, for a Hong Kong IPO, with an initial issuance size of up to 20% of the total shares post-issuance (before over-allotment) [3] - Goertek Micro specializes in MEMS devices and microsystem modules, with a high concentration of customers, particularly in the Apple supply chain [3] - The subsidiary's revenue has been stable, with 2021-2023 revenues of 3.348 billion, 3.125 billion, and 3.015 billion yuan, respectively, and net profits of 329 million, 326 million, and 226 million yuan [3] - The spin-off is expected to enhance Goertek Micro's development in MEMS and SIP microsystem modules, benefiting both the subsidiary and the parent company [4] - The company forecasts 2024-2026 net profits of 2.389 billion, 3.398 billion, and 4.231 billion yuan, with EPS of 0.70, 0.99, and 1.24 yuan, respectively [4] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue for 2022A, 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected at 104.894 billion, 98.574 billion, 100.121 billion, 104.980 billion, and 112.467 billion yuan, respectively [5] - Net profit growth rates for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are expected to be 119.56%, 42.23%, and 24.53%, respectively [5] - EPS for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected at 0.70, 0.99, and 1.24 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 26.51x, 18.64x, and 14.96x [5] - ROE is expected to improve from 5.93% in 2022A to 11.71% in 2026E [5] Industry and Market Opportunities - The MEMS and SIP microsystem module market is poised for growth, driven by AI-enabled smart hardware and AR/VR products [4] - Goertek Micro holds a significant global market share in MEMS acoustic sensors and is well-positioned to capitalize on industry opportunities [4] - The spin-off will allow Goertek Micro to access capital market resources, improve corporate governance, and enhance international market visibility [4] Financial Metrics and Ratios - Gross margins for 2022A, 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 11.1%, 8.9%, 11.3%, 12.1%, and 12.6%, respectively [6] - Operating profit margins for the same periods are 1.5%, 0.9%, 2.4%, 3.2%, and 3.8% [6] - Net profit margins are projected to increase from 1.7% in 2022A to 3.5% in 2026E [6] - ROIC is expected to rise from 7.2% in 2022A to 9.0% in 2026E [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's share repurchase plan demonstrates confidence in future development, with 786,200 shares repurchased (0.16% of total shares) at an average price of 6.33 yuan per share [2] - The company's liquid food packaging equipment has high market coverage, helping to smooth cyclical impacts [3] - Beverage & dairy industry: Demand for aseptic filling lines is growing due to health-conscious trends, with sugar-free tea drinks increasing from 14% to 27% market share [3] - Beer industry: The company has strong relationships with major players like Snow Beer, Budweiser, and Tsingtao Beer, positioning it well for equipment upgrades [3] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from 3.258 billion yuan in 2024 to 5.088 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 26.2% [3] - Net profit is projected to increase from 114 million yuan in 2024 to 391 million yuan in 2026 [3] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.23 yuan in 2024 to 0.80 yuan in 2026 [3] - PE ratio is expected to decline from 24.3x in 2024 to 7.1x in 2026 [3] Valuation Metrics - Current price-to-book ratio is 1.06x, expected to decrease to 0.91x by 2026 [3] - EV/EBITDA is projected to decline from 7.9x in 2024 to 4.0x in 2026 [4] - ROE is forecasted to improve from 4.4% in 2024 to 12.8% in 2026 [4] Operational Efficiency - Inventory turnover days are expected to decrease from 482 in 2024 to 414 in 2026 [4] - Accounts receivable turnover days are projected to improve from 68 in 2024 to 49 in 2026 [4] - Total asset turnover days are forecasted to decrease from 839 in 2024 to 648 in 2026 [4] Industry Position - The company has strong market positioning in liquid food packaging equipment, particularly in the beverage, dairy, and beer industries [3] - It has established relationships with major industry players, providing a competitive advantage in equipment upgrades and replacements [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3] Core Views - The company's overall performance remains stable, with steady growth in new orders [2] - Revenue from self-developed technology transformation and clinical services grew significantly by 52.43% and 32.22% respectively in H1 2024 [2] - The company's gross margin improved to 68.75% in H1 2024, up 2.19 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company has a rich pipeline of nearly 300 R&D projects awaiting transformation as of H1 2024 [2] Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue reached 525 million yuan (+23.88% YoY), with net profit of 134 million yuan (+12.35% YoY) [2] - Q2 2024 revenue was 309 million yuan (+17.65% YoY), with net profit of 84 million yuan (flat YoY) [2] - New orders in H1 2024 totaled 711 million yuan, up 13.38% YoY [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 1.203 billion yuan in 2024E to 1.872 billion yuan in 2026E [3][4] - Net profit is expected to increase from 315 million yuan in 2024E to 519 million yuan in 2026E [3][4] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 2.89 yuan in 2024E to 4.77 yuan in 2026E [4] - PE ratio is expected to decline from 24.91x in 2024E to 15.10x in 2026E [3][4] Business Segments - Clinical pre-pharmacy services/CDMO/equity sharing revenue declined by 9.09%/70.36%/72.60% respectively in H1 2024 [2] - Self-developed technology transformation revenue reached 290 million yuan in H1 2024, with a gross margin of 87.28% [2] - Clinical service revenue was 93 million yuan in H1 2024, with a gross margin of 37.38% [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Luxshare Precision (002475) [1] Core Views - Luxshare Precision is actively expanding its overseas market presence through strategic acquisitions, particularly in the automotive sector [3] - The acquisition of Leoni AG and its subsidiaries is seen as a reasonable deal, with potential for long-term growth despite short-term profitability challenges [4] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the automotive electrification and intelligence trends, with expected revenue growth and improved profitability [4] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 214.03 billion in 2022 to RMB 331.29 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 11.56% [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from RMB 9.16 billion in 2022 to RMB 19.96 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 24.33% [5] - EPS is forecasted to rise from RMB 1.29 in 2022 to RMB 2.77 in 2026 [5] - ROE is expected to remain stable around 19.5%-20.2% from 2022 to 2026 [5] Operational Efficiency - The company's asset turnover days are expected to improve, with fixed asset turnover days decreasing from 66 days in 2022 to 38 days in 2026 [6] - Inventory turnover days are projected to decrease from 56 days in 2022 to 47 days in 2026, indicating improved inventory management [6] - Accounts receivable turnover days are expected to remain stable around 36-38 days from 2024 to 2026 [6] Valuation Metrics - The PE ratio is expected to decline from 24.61x in 2022 to 13.67x in 2026, reflecting improved earnings growth [5] - The PB ratio is projected to decrease from 4.98x in 2022 to 2.67x in 2026, indicating potential undervaluation [5] - EV/EBITDA is forecasted to decrease from 12.3x in 2022 to 5.8x in 2026, suggesting improved valuation attractiveness [6] Growth Drivers - The company's growth is driven by its strategic focus on automotive electrification and intelligence, as well as its expansion into overseas markets [4] - The acquisition of Leoni AG is expected to provide Luxshare Precision with access to new markets and customer resources, enhancing its long-term growth potential [4]

农林牧渔 / 行业投资策略周报 / 2024.09.14 9 月 USDA 上调全球大豆产量，供应短期承压猪价调整 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -25% -19% -14% -8% -3% 3% 农林牧渔 沪深300 分析师 肖珮菁 SAC 证书编号：S0160524070005 xiaopj@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《8 月能繁增速放缓，补栏谨慎看好 养殖景气延续》 2024-09-08 2. 《猪价高位调整，补栏谨慎看好养殖 景气延续》 2024-09-01 3. 《8 月 USDA 上调全球小麦、大豆产 量预测》 2024-08-27 农业重点数据跟踪周报 证券研究报告 核心观点 ❖ 生猪养殖：猪价震荡下行，价格周期反转。市场出栏心态积极，供应相对宽 松；二次育肥出栏整体积极，猪价震荡下行。中长期，产业情绪谨慎，产能回补 较慢，价格周期反转，持续推荐配置生猪养殖。1）数量端：8 月能繁母猪存栏 增速放缓。根据钢联统计，8 月能繁母猪存栏量月环比+0.32%（7 月+1.11%）。 2）价格端：震荡下行。根据涌益咨询，9 月 12 日，商品猪出栏价为 19.68 元 /kg ...

宏观月报 / 2024.09.14 政策易托难举 ——8 月经济数据解读 证券研究报告 分析师 陈兴 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 分析师 马骏 SAC 证书编号：S0160523080004 majun@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《产能利用率稳步回复——2023 年 12 月经济数据解读》 2024-01-17 2. 《谁在带动工业生产回升？——2024 年 1-2 月经济数据解读》 2024-03-18 3. 《5.3%的增速由谁拉动？——一季度 经济数据解读》 2024-04-16 4. 《地产新政，影响多大？——地产政 策及 4 月经济数据解读》 2024-05-17 5. 《施工为何显著回落？——5 月经济 数据解读》 2024-06-17 6. 《放缓的症结何在？——二季度经济 数据解读》 2024-07-15 7. 《坚韧的制造业难撑投资——7 月经 济数据解读》 2024-08-15 核心观点 ❖ 国家统计局公布 8 月经济数据，投资和地产有所改善，但消费和生产回落。首 先，从需求端来看，8 月出口再度回升，需要观察美联储降息后 ...

策略专题报告 / 2024.09.14 冰火两重天行情 ——"美"周市场复盘（9 月第 2 周） 证券研究报告 分析师 李美岑 SAC 证书编号：S0160521120002 limc@ctsec.com 分析师 王亦奕 SAC 证书编号：S0160522030002 wangyy01@ctsec.com 分析师 熊宇翔 SAC 证书编号：S0160524070003 xiongyx@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《科创 100 营收利润增速改善——科 创板 24Q2 业绩分析》 2024-09-09 2. 《海外中国资产走强有望带动 A 股回 暖——A 股策略专题报告(20240908)》 2024-09-08 3. 《美债结束长达 26 个月"倒挂"— —"美"周市场复盘（9 月第 1 周）》 2024-09-07 核心观点 ❖ 本周 A 股市场主要指数呈现震荡态势，部分指数表现分化。上证指数在 本周多次下探，特别是在 9 月 13 日盘中最低触及 2703.37 点，逼近 2700 点的 心理关口。相比之下，创业板指数表现出较强的韧性，9 月 11 日逆势上涨 1.19%，显示出市场对某些板块如新 ...