Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 8.856 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 0.22%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 910 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 791.93% [7] - The company has a strong cost advantage and is enhancing its brand through a comprehensive channel strategy, which has led to a market share increase despite challenging market conditions [7] - The forecast for the company's revenue and net profit for 2025-2027 is 19.994 billion yuan, 12.22 billion yuan; 21.296 billion yuan, 16.27 billion yuan; and 22.568 billion yuan, 19.56 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 17.6, 13.2, and 11.0 [7] Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue for 2023A is 18,487 million yuan, with a projected growth rate of 9.9% [6] - The net profit for 2023A is 664 million yuan, with a net profit growth rate of 61.7% [6] - The EPS for 2025E is projected to be 0.98 yuan, with a PE ratio of 17.6 [6] - The company's gross margin for the first half of 2025 is 11.97%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company completed the merger with Sun Valley Holdings, adding a capacity of 65 million birds, contributing an additional 85 million yuan to the performance in the first half of 2025 [7]

Core Insights - The report indicates a significant increase in the lithium battery supply chain prices across the board, with specific price movements noted for lithium carbonate and other materials [1][12][24]. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.7% this week, while the solid-state battery index increased by 3.96%, outperforming the Shanghai index. Year-to-date, the Shanghai Composite Index is up 10.29%, the solid-state battery index is up 30%, lithium equipment (CITIC) is up 41.91%, and lithium batteries (CITIC) are up 11.47% [7][9]. - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market reached 105,094.59 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 23.9%. The trading volume for the solid-state battery index was 2,317.21 billion yuan, up 47.92% week-on-week, while lithium equipment (CITIC) saw a trading volume of 20.66 billion yuan, up 11.1% [7][9]. Price Tracking - As of August 15, the price of lithium carbonate (battery grade Li2CO3 ≥99.5%) was 83,000 yuan per ton, an increase of 13,000 yuan from the previous week. The price of lithium iron phosphate (domestic) was 34,300 yuan per ton, up 170 yuan week-on-week. The price of ternary materials (523) was 114.53 yuan per kilogram, up 3.03 yuan week-on-week. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 55,000 yuan per ton, up 480 yuan week-on-week, and the average price of graphite electrodes was 12,500 yuan per ton, up 250 yuan week-on-week [12][24]. Industry News & Company Announcements - Funeng Technology has achieved large-scale shipments of semi-solid-state batteries, gaining recognition from various clients including major automotive manufacturers [24]. - Nandu Power has signed the world's largest semi-solid-state battery energy storage project, with a total capacity of 2.8 GWh, which is expected to significantly enhance the regional grid's ability to accept renewable energy [26]. - The solid-state battery project by Tailan New Energy has been included in the national key research and development plan, focusing on developing high-energy-density and long-cycle-life battery systems [27]. Demand Tracking for Power Batteries - In the first seven months of 2025, the production of power and other batteries reached 831.1 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 57.5%. The cumulative growth rate has slowed by 2.9 percentage points compared to the previous month. The export volume of power batteries for the same period was 96.4 GWh, up 29.4% year-on-year, with a single-month export volume of 15 GWh, up 54.17% year-on-year [29][30]. - In the first half of 2025, the registration of pure electric passenger vehicles in 30 European countries reached 1.19 million units, a year-on-year increase of 24.9%, while hybrid electric vehicles registered 2.384 million units, up 16.0% year-on-year [33][35].

Group 1 - The defense and military industry index experienced a slight increase of 0.15% over the week from August 9 to August 16, 2025, ranking 21 out of 31 in the Shenwan first-level industry classification [7][12] - Over the past month, the industry index rose by 11.17%, ranking 5 out of 31 [10][14] - In the past year, the index has increased by 46.85%, ranking 11 out of 31 [14][15] Group 2 - The current PE-TTM for the defense and military industry is 90.20, which is at the 77.77 percentile compared to the past ten years, indicating a relatively high valuation level [15][46] - The performance of individual stocks in the defense and military sector showed significant variation, with the top performers being Fenghuo Electronics (38.73%), Feilihua (30.81%), and Aowei Communication (18.03%) [19][29] - Conversely, the worst performers included Qiyi Er (-5.82%), Xice Testing (-6.00%), and Zhongguang Optical (-6.06%) [19][29] Group 3 - Key industry data indicates that the price of sponge titanium is currently 50 RMB/kg, unchanged from the previous week, but up 11.11% from a month ago [30][34] - The LME nickel spot settlement price is currently 14,910 USD/ton, reflecting a 0.17% increase from the previous week but a 7.85% decrease from a year ago [30][34] - The price of domestic acrylonitrile is 8,250 RMB/ton, down 1.20% from the previous week but up 3.13% from a year ago [34][36] Group 4 - Recent industry news includes the successful first tethered ignition test of the Long March 10 rocket and the successful launch of the satellite internet low-orbit 08 group satellites [44][45] - The defense trade market is expected to expand due to escalating geopolitical conflicts, with a focus on military trade, unmanned equipment, commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and military AI as key investment themes [46]

Report Title - Futures | Waiting for a Turnaround [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The 10Y Treasury bond active bond yield may be in the 5th wave of upward movement since May 7th, with the upward target point possibly being the high of 1.75% on July 25th (the high of the 3rd wave). The upward movement of interest rates started on May 7th when the central bank proposed dual cuts at a pre - market press conference, and the equity market reacted most明显, which promoted the adjustment of the bond market [3]. - The weekly technical analysis of Treasury bond futures shows a short - term decline, and attention should be paid to the possible turning points. This week, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures were weak. After the short - term rebound, they fell again. T2509 entered the 5th wave of decline after the equal - tariff situation, and attention should be paid to the possible turning points when the decline structure is complete or broken. The long - end Treasury bonds were significantly adjusted this week, with TL being the weakest [4]. - The data tracking of Treasury bond futures shows that they fell across the board, and it is still necessary to wait for the right time to participate in the long - basis trading strategy. This week, the trading activity of Treasury bond futures rebounded, and the position transfer was in progress. As of August 15th, the positions of the 2509 contracts of Treasury bond futures declined across the board. The CTD net basis and IRR of the 2512 contracts showed differentiation, and considering the recent upward movement of market yields, it is better to wait for a better opportunity to participate in the long - basis trading strategy [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Technical Analysis 1.1 Pre - trend Review - This week, Treasury bond futures declined significantly, and TL hit a new low first. T2509's short - term rebound ended, and it started to fall on Monday. TL had a larger decline and hit a new low on July 30th on Thursday. Currently, both the daily and weekly lines are below the moving average system, showing short - term weakness [9]. 1.2 Future Market Outlook - T2509 fell again this week and may still be in the process of decline. Attention should be paid to the changes in the trend structure during the decline, and it may bottom out and rebound after the decline ends. T2509 opened lower and moved lower on Monday, confirming that it entered the 5th wave of decline since the equal - tariff situation and may currently be in the 3rd sub - wave of the decline. Wait for the decline structure to be complete or broken for possible turning points [11]. 2. Weekly Tracking of Treasury Bond Futures - This week, Treasury bond futures fell across the board. As of the close on August 15th, the closing prices of the 2509 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures were 102.346, 105.660, 108.295, and 117.48 yuan respectively, changing by - 0.038, - 0.180, - 0.345, and - 1.84 yuan compared with the previous week [16]. - The trading activity of Treasury bond futures increased significantly this week. The average daily trading volume of the 2509 contracts of Treasury bond futures at all maturities increased to varying degrees compared with last week. The trading volume/position ratio increased at all maturities [16]. - As of August 15th, the positions of the 2509 contracts of Treasury bond futures declined across the board, and investors gradually transferred their positions to the 2512 contracts [16]. - As of August 15th, the CTD net basis of the 2512 contracts of Treasury bond futures at all maturities showed differentiation, with the 5 - year and 30 - year net basis declining and the 2 - year and 10 - year net basis rising. The IRR of the 2512 contracts at all maturities also showed differentiation, with the 2 - year IRR declining and the 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year IRR rising. Considering the recent upward movement of market yields, it is better to wait for a better opportunity to participate in the long - basis trading strategy. The spread between the 09 - 12 contracts increased across the board this week [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In a high - valuation environment, some fixed - income investors have a "fear of high prices" due to their sensitivity to potential drawdowns. Institutions that have earned substantial returns from equity - linked assets in the first seven months of this year want to lock in profits while participating in the equity market [6]. - High - convexity convertible bonds can better leverage the "attack when the market rises, defend when the market falls" advantage. A quantitative strategy based on convertible bond convexity has achieved a 19.1% return in 2025 (monthly rebalancing, AA - and above ratings), outperforming the CSI Convertible Bond Index by 4.4% [8]. - The number of convertible bonds with the "attack - and - defend" feature is decreasing. High - gamma convertible bonds are becoming harder to find, and the crowding of the high - convexity strategy may be increasing [12]. - For fixed - income + investors seeking stable returns, high - convexity convertible bonds are a good choice. For investors who can tolerate some volatility, it's not advisable to exit easily. The long - term focus for bond selection is on the technology + AI sectors, and there are still some left - hand opportunities for undervalued leading stocks in related industries [15]. Summary by Directory 1. Which Convertible Bonds are "Attack - and - Defend"? - As of August 15, 2025, the convertible bond's 100 - yuan premium rate reached 29.21%, the highest since 2024 and in the 98% historical percentile since 2021. The median price of convertible bonds is around 132 yuan, and the market may continue to rise [6]. - The high - convexity strategy has shown significant excess returns in 2025. The latest positions of the strategy on August 15, 2025, are provided in the report [8][11]. 2. Market One - Week Performance - As of Friday's close, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3696.77, up 1.70% for the week, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 475.25, up 1.60% for the week. The top - three rising sectors in the stock market were communication (+7.11%), comprehensive finance (+7.07%), and non - bank finance (+6.57%), while banking (-3.22%), steel (-2.00%), and textile and apparel (-1.36%) declined [16]. - No new convertible bonds were listed this week. 357 convertible bonds rose, accounting for 78%. The top - five gainers and losers in terms of price changes and valuation changes are provided in the report [19]. 3. Important Shareholder Convertible Bond Reduction Situations - Companies that announced convertible bond reduction this week include Fuchun Dyeing & Weaving, Zhongbei Communication, Southeast Grid, Tianrun Dairy, and Lingyi Precision Manufacturing [26]. - A list of issuers with high convertible bond holding ratios by major shareholders and their reduction situations is provided [27]. 4. Convertible Bond Issuance Progress - Shenergy Co., Ltd. has a board proposal for a 20 - billion - yuan convertible bond issuance, and Awinic Technology Co., Ltd. has passed the shareholders' meeting for a 19.01 - billion - yuan issuance [28]. 5. Private EB Project Updates There were no progress updates on private EB projects this week [29]. 6. Style & Strategy: Small - Sized, Low - Rated, and Equity - Biased Bonds Outperform - This week, the small - sized, low - rated, and equity - biased style in the convertible bond market outperformed. As of the last trading day of the week, high - rated convertible bonds underperformed low - rated ones by 1.96 pct, large - sized bonds underperformed small - sized ones by 2.41 pct, and equity - biased bonds outperformed debt - biased ones by 5.74 pct [30]. 7. One - Week Convertible Bond Valuation Performance: Convertible Bond Valuations Reach New Highs - The 100 - yuan premium rate of the convertible bond market reached a new high. As of the last trading day of the week, it closed at 29.21%, up 0.84% from the previous week. The median full - caliber convertible bond conversion premium rate rose 0.58 pct to 28.93%, and the market - value - weighted conversion premium rate (excluding banks) decreased 0.93 pct to 46.16% [40]. - For equity - biased convertible bonds, the median conversion premium rate closed at 10.53%, up 0.97 pct from the previous week. For debt - biased convertible bonds, the median pure - debt premium rate closed at 11.76%, up 0.84 pct from the previous week [40]. - In terms of extreme pricing, as of the last trading day of the week, there were 2 convertible bonds below par value, 1 below the bond floor, and 5 with a YTM greater than 3%, with their quantities in the 12.5%, 17.3%, and 11.1% historical percentiles since 2016, respectively [43]. - The median YTM of bank convertible bonds was - 5.54%, 7.33 pct lower than the 3 - year AAA corporate bond yield. The median YTM of AA - to AA+ debt - biased convertible bonds was - 2.16%, 4.15 pct lower than the 3 - year AA corporate bond yield [43]. - The adjusted 100 - yuan premium rate increased, reaching high historical percentiles in the past six months and since 2018 [56].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has shown a significant increase in its performance, with a total revenue of 2.345 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.35%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 480 million yuan, up 24.29% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit surged by 64.12% to 475 million yuan [7] - The company is undergoing a comprehensive transformation towards AI+, focusing on creating a business model that integrates AI technology with its operations. This includes collaboration with ecosystem partners to develop smart inspection solutions [7] - The traditional business remains stable, and new ventures such as charging piles are expected to open a second growth curve for the company. Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 4.962 billion, 6.158 billion, and 7.513 billion yuan, with net profits of 905 million, 1.177 billion, and 1.436 billion yuan respectively [7] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 3.251 billion yuan for 2023, with a projected growth rate of 43.5%. By 2025, the revenue is expected to reach 4.962 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 26.2% [6][8] - The net profit for 2023 was 179 million yuan, with a projected increase to 905 million yuan by 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 41.2% [6][8] - The company's gross margin and net margin for the first half of 2025 were 54.42% and 19.38% respectively, indicating stable profitability [7] Business Model and Strategy - The company is leveraging AI technology as a core component of its business strategy, aiming to create a model that combines smart terminals and AI agents for continuous service revenue [7] - The AI+ inspection business is being developed in collaboration with partners, focusing on a comprehensive solution that integrates smart technology with industry-specific applications [7] Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a significant performance compared to the market, with a 12-month market performance of 143% against the CSI 300 index [4]

Core Insights - Chile's copper supply is tight, continuing to recommend opportunities in industrial metals [5][7] - The report maintains a positive investment rating for industrial metals [5] Industrial Metals - Copper: Supply constraints due to the suspension of Codelco's copper mine in Chile (350,000 tons), limited future increments post-resumption, and no hope for the Panama copper mine to resume this year. Tight raw material supply has led to reduced output and declining social inventory. Demand remains stable, with major traders reluctant to sell, creating a bullish market sentiment. The upcoming demand peak from September to November could significantly push copper prices higher if supply remains constrained. Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, Western Mining, Minmetals Resources, China Nonferrous Mining, and Zangge Mining [7]. - Aluminum: Slight increase in theoretical operating capacity and rising aluminum ingot inventory. Weekly aluminum rod production decreased, but real estate consumption sentiment in Beijing improved. In the medium to long term, alumina supply is expected to increase, potentially keeping prices low. Electrolytic aluminum inventory is at historical lows, providing price support as the peak season approaches. Recommended stocks include Yunnan Aluminum, Shenhuo, Nanshan Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, China Aluminum, China Hongqiao, Suotong Development, Huatong Cable, and Zhongfu Industrial [7]. Energy Metals - Rare Earths: Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide rose by 3.62% to 558,000 yuan/ton, and praseodymium-neodymium mixed metal prices increased by 2.65% to 678,000 yuan/ton. Supply remains tight, with some companies halting production due to raw material shortages. The upcoming peak season is expected to drive prices higher. Recommended stocks include China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth, Baotou Steel, Shenghe Resources, and Guangsheng Nonferrous [7]. - Lithium Carbonate: Domestic industrial-grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.12% to 81,200 yuan/ton. The suspension of the Jiangxi mine since August 10 and other mines facing license reviews have led to low inventory levels, shifting the industry from surplus to tight balance. Recommended stocks include Zhongjin Lingnan, Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, Shengxin Lithium Energy, Rongjie, and Salt Lake Resources [7]. Precious Metals - Inflation recovery and interest rate cut expectations are under scrutiny, with market focus on the aftermath of US-Russia-Ukraine talks. CPI data was weak, but core CPI exceeded expectations, leading to a reduction in rate cut expectations for September. The lack of a ceasefire agreement after the US-Russia summit has heightened market caution. Long-term, risks from debt and slowing economic growth may pressure the dollar and US Treasuries, highlighting gold's value as a hedge. Recommended stocks with production growth and performance release include Shandong Gold, Zhaojin Mining, Zhongjin Gold, Shanjin International, Western Gold, Chifeng Gold, Tongguan Gold, and Wanguo Gold Group [7].

Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a positive outlook on the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, with a focus on potential investment opportunities in the sector [1][3] - The market performance over the last 12 months shows a decline of 11% for the agriculture sector compared to a 4% decline in the CSI 300 index, indicating relative underperformance [2][10] Livestock Farming Data Tracking - Pig prices have been declining due to increased supply pressure, with the average price of live pigs at 13.74 CNY/kg as of August 14, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 2.00% [6][29] - The number of breeding sows showed a slight increase in July, with a month-on-month growth of 0.28% [20] - Profitability for self-bred pigs remains positive at 28.85 CNY per head, while purchased piglets show a loss of 157.05 CNY per head [35] Poultry Farming Data Tracking - The average price of white feather broilers was 7.20 CNY/kg as of August 15, with a week-on-week increase of 0.84% [36][39] - The ongoing avian influenza outbreaks in Europe and the U.S. are expected to benefit the white feather chicken industry by stabilizing prices [36] Animal Health Data Tracking - The demand for animal health products is expected to rebound, with significant year-on-year growth in vaccine issuance for various diseases, including a 76% increase for circovirus vaccines in June [45] - The development of African swine fever vaccines is progressing, with clinical trials expected to enhance market interest in the sector [45] Seed Industry Data Tracking - The average prices for wheat, soybean meal, and corn as of August 15 are 2438 CNY/ton, 3097 CNY/ton, and 2394 CNY/ton, respectively, with soybean meal prices increasing by 2.7% week-on-week [48] - The USDA's August report indicates a decrease in global corn and soybean stocks for the 2025/26 season compared to the previous year, which may impact pricing and availability [49][51] Pet Industry Data Tracking - Pet food exports totaled 4.999 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [53] - Domestic sales of pet food are growing rapidly, with a combined growth rate of 5% across major e-commerce platforms in July [56] - Companies with strong domestic sales growth and supply chain advantages are expected to enhance their market share [56]

Core Views - The report emphasizes a "leading bull" market driven by supply clearance, anti-involution, and state-owned enterprise restructuring, with PPI reaching a bottom in sectors like brokerage, non-ferrous metals, coal, and photovoltaic [4] - The report identifies a nearing inflection point for domestic production, particularly in the Hang Seng Technology and semiconductor chains, with a focus on potential CAPEX exceeding expectations from downstream major manufacturers [4] - Global economic expansion is highlighted, with new investments flowing overseas in sectors such as gaming, short dramas, and innovative pharmaceuticals, alongside stable performance in overseas computing power [4] Market Dynamics - The report indicates a strong expected performance in the current market cycle, with historical strong market conditions typically showing a turnover rate above 4%, and the current turnover rate positioned at this level [5][13] - It notes that the current financing balance relative to free float market value is still at a median level, suggesting that leveraged funds have room to grow, and financing transaction ratios have not yet peaked [5][14] - The report suggests that the recent inflow of funds, including foreign capital and financing, supports a sustained upward market momentum, with total A-share transaction volume reaching 2.3 trillion yuan [10][11] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as brokerage, non-ferrous metals, and coal, while also highlighting the initial performance of domestic computing power and the potential for CAPEX to exceed expectations during the earnings season [12] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring market sentiment and transaction volume, particularly in the context of potential "fear of heights" among investors, suggesting that there is no need for excessive caution before a significant volume reduction occurs [7][10] - The report also points to the significance of external factors, such as the Jackson Hole meeting and potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy, as catalysts for market adjustments [5][28]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - This week's main concerns include a significant rebound in Beijing's new and second - hand housing sales due to the new property market policies, a slight decline in rebar and cement prices as anti - involution cools down, stronger travel momentum during the summer with subway rides and domestic flights outperforming seasonality, and a sharp increase in vegetable prices due to extreme weather [2]. - New home sales continued to weaken this week, while second - hand home sales rebounded. New home transaction areas in first - and second - tier cities were significantly weaker than the same period last year, while second - hand home sales areas in key cities increased month - on - month and were stronger than last year. Beijing's new and second - hand housing sales showed a significant rebound [2]. - In terms of investment and production, most commodity prices declined. Rebar prices decreased slightly, glass futures prices rose significantly, cement price index decreased slightly, and asphalt prices decreased slightly [2]. - In industrial production, the performance of operating rates was divided. The operating rates of petroleum asphalt, automobile tires, and coking enterprises increased, while the operating rate of steel mills' blast furnaces decreased slightly, and the operating rates of polyester filament and PTA decreased [2]. - In terms of consumption, travel momentum was strong. Subway rides and domestic flights outperformed seasonality, while automobile consumption and movie box office were in line with seasonality [2]. - In terms of inflation, pork prices decreased, vegetable prices increased significantly, and oil prices decreased [2]. - In terms of exports, SCFI and BDI declined this week, and the market supply - demand fundamentals were slightly weak, with the shipping market continuing to adjust [2]. Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs 1. Real Estate Sales - New home sales in first - and second - tier cities weakened. From August 8th to August 14th, new home transactions showed a mixed performance month - on - month and a significant decline year - on - year. New home transaction areas in first - and second - tier cities were much weaker than last year, while those in third - tier cities were much stronger than the previous period and last year. Wind's 20 - city transaction area increased 2.83% month - on - month and decreased 12.96% year - on - year [7]. - Second - hand home sales increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. In key cities, the transaction areas increased month - on - month and were higher than the same period last year, with Hangzhou showing a significant 15% increase [27]. 2. Investment - Most commodity prices declined. Cement, asphalt, and rebar prices decreased slightly, while glass futures prices increased significantly [37]. 3. Production - Operating rates showed a divided performance. The operating rates of petroleum asphalt, automobile tires, and coking enterprises increased, while the operating rate of steel mills' blast furnaces decreased slightly, and the operating rates of polyester filament and PTA decreased [43]. 4. Consumption - Travel momentum was strong. Subway rides and domestic flights outperformed seasonality, while automobile consumption and movie box office were in line with seasonality [52]. 5. Exports - SCFI index declined, and BDI index and CRB spot index decreased slightly [58]. 6. Prices - Pork prices decreased, vegetable prices increased significantly, oil prices decreased slightly, and rebar prices decreased slightly [64].