Candidate Selection Process - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair has become a focal point since the second half of 2025, with candidates undergoing multiple rounds of dynamic adjustments[1] - After Treasury Secretary Bessent withdrew in August, the candidate pool narrowed to three finalists: Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, and current board member Christopher Waller[1] - Hassett's probability of being selected peaked at 80% due to Trump's comments, but interest shifted towards Warsh, creating a competitive landscape with Hassett slightly leading[1] Monetary Policy Positions - All three candidates support interest rate cuts, but they differ significantly in their monetary policy stances[1] - Hassett advocates for aggressive rate cuts, citing a productivity revolution driven by AI as a reason to lower rates substantially[1] - Warsh views rate cuts as a correction to past aggressive monetary experiments and emphasizes a return to traditional policies, while Waller adopts a more moderate approach, suggesting a gradual move towards neutral rates[1] Market Reactions and Implications - Trump's strategy of delaying the announcement of the candidate aims to test market reactions and minimize financial volatility, with a potential announcement now expected in early 2026[2] - The market is likely to trade on the expectation of strong rate cut signals from the candidates, which could temporarily boost U.S. stocks and lower Treasury yields, putting pressure on the dollar index[2] - In the medium to long term, the independence of the Federal Reserve is expected to stabilize asset prices, as new policies will need to align with core economic data rather than political demands[2] Economic Context - The U.S. economy grew by 4.3% in Q3 2025, driven by a 3.5% increase in consumer spending, which constitutes about 70% of the economy[35] - High inflation has led to increased consumer debt during the holiday season, with 37% of Americans reporting higher debt levels compared to the previous year[34]

Market Trends - The US stock market has initiated a "Christmas rally," with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving an eight-day winning streak and a weekly increase of 1.88%[10] - The discussion around "year-end rally" and "spring surge" is intensifying, driven primarily by liquidity and risk appetite rather than macroeconomic fundamentals[1] Liquidity and Monetary Policy - Liquidity is not a concern for the upcoming spring surge, with expectations of policy rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the first half of 2026, although urgency is low[2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has continued to signal stable liquidity through medium-term lending facility (MLF) operations, with a net injection of 1,000 billion yuan in December[56] Currency and Asset Performance - The Chinese yuan has shown orderly appreciation, with the offshore yuan briefly surpassing the 7.0 mark against the US dollar, indicating a return of correlation between stock and currency movements[17] - The A-share sentiment index rose to approximately 45 on December 26, up nearly 13 percentage points from the previous week, reflecting improved market confidence[19] Industry Insights - Silver and lithium carbonate prices have continued to perform strongly, while industrial production remains weakly differentiated, particularly in the petroleum sector[47] - The automotive sales growth has improved on a month-on-month basis, alongside rising wholesale prices for agricultural products and fruits[47] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected changes in the global economic landscape, geopolitical disturbances, and policy implementations falling short of expectations[3]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core Viewpoints - In the neutral scenario, the increase in bond demand from the growth of fixed - income + fund scale may not offset the decrease in bond demand caused by the shrinkage of pure - bond fund scale. Credit bond and convertible bond demand will increase, while interest - rate bond, especially policy - financial bond, demand will significantly decline [1] - In the short term, the bond market has entered a volatile stage after the previous rebound. The core strategy is carry trade, with a focus on allocating safe assets such as 4 - 5 - year credit bonds, 5 - year treasury bonds, and 5 - 7 - year CDB bonds. In January, interest rates may still face upward pressure due to factors like the front - loaded issuance of government bonds and high CD renewal pressure in the first quarter [1][2][33] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. How much bond demand does the growth of fixed - income + fund scale bring? - **1.1 Fixed - income + fund scale and bond - holding structure**: The growth of the equity market has driven up the profitability and scale of fixed - income + funds. From Q4 2024 to Q3 2025, the scale increased from 1.69 trillion yuan to 2.44 trillion yuan. The bond - holding scale of fixed - income + funds has generally risen, reaching 3.3 trillion yuan in Q3 2025 with a 16% QoQ increase. In contrast, the bond - holding scale of pure - bond funds declined to 7.9 trillion yuan in Q3 2025. Both types of funds mainly hold credit bonds, but fixed - income + funds have a higher convertible bond position and a lower policy - financial bond position [10][12] - **1.2 Estimation of the incremental bond demand brought by the growth of bond fund scale in 2026** - **1.2.1 Changes in bond demand due to the growth of fixed - income + fund scale**: Under pessimistic, neutral, and optimistic scenarios, the bond demand scales of fixed - income + funds in 2026 are 3 trillion yuan, 3.40 trillion yuan, and 3.95 trillion yuan respectively, with incremental demands of 2723 billion yuan, 6807 billion yuan, and 12253 billion yuan. The demand for credit bonds may increase significantly. In the neutral scenario, compared with Q4 2025, the increments of general credit bonds and financial bonds are 2740 billion yuan and 1751 billion yuan respectively [18] - **1.2.2 Changes in bond demand due to the shrinkage of pure - bond fund scale**: Under pessimistic, neutral, and optimistic scenarios, the bond demand scales of pure - bond funds in 2026 are 6.58 trillion yuan, 6.97 trillion yuan, and 7.35 trillion yuan respectively, with demand decreases of 11608 billion yuan, 7739 billion yuan, and 3869 billion yuan. The demand for general credit bonds and policy - financial bonds will decrease relatively more. In the neutral scenario, compared with Q4 2025, the changes in general credit bonds and policy - financial bonds are - 2268 billion yuan and - 3043 billion yuan respectively [24] - **1.2.3 Total incremental bond demand brought by fixed - income + funds and pure - bond funds**: In the neutral scenario, overall bond demand decreases. The increase in bond demand from fixed - income + funds may not offset the decrease from pure - bond funds. Credit bond and convertible bond demand increase, while interest - rate bond, especially policy - financial bond, demand decreases significantly. The total demand for credit bonds and interest - rate bonds decreases by 1455 billion yuan [30] - **1.3 Bond market outlook**: In the short term, the bond market is in a volatile stage, and the strategy focuses on carry trade and safe - asset allocation. In January, interest rates may face upward pressure, but it may also present a good allocation window [33] 2. Overview of credit bond yields - From December 22 - 26, 2025, credit bond yields showed mixed trends. General credit bonds like urban investment bonds and industrial bonds performed better than financial bonds, and medium - and high - rated bonds performed better than low - rated ones. Urban investment bonds and industrial bonds mainly saw yield declines, while the yields of other financial bonds showed mixed trends. Insurance sub - bonds had all - around yield declines [34][35] 3. Primary market - **3.1 Issuance volume**: The issuance volume of credit bonds decreased MoM but increased YoY this week. The net financing volume increased both MoM and YoY. The net financing volume of financial bonds increased MoM, while that of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds decreased [42] - **3.2 Issuance cost**: The average issuance interest rate of credit bonds increased. The average issuance interest rate of industrial bonds decreased MoM, while those of urban investment bonds and financial bonds increased. The significant increase in financial bond issuance rates was due to the issuance of some high - interest - rate bonds [51] - **3.3 Issuance term**: The average issuance term of credit bonds decreased MoM. The issuance terms of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds decreased, while that of financial bonds increased [55] - **3.4 Cancellation of issuance**: The number and scale of cancelled credit bond issuances decreased MoM. From December 22 - 26, 8 bonds were cancelled, 2 less than the previous week, and the cancelled issuance scale decreased by 27.54 billion yuan [59] 4. Secondary market - **4.1 Trading volume**: Except for insurance sub - bonds, the trading volumes of other credit bonds rebounded. The trading terms of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds lengthened, while those of bank secondary capital bonds and insurance sub - bonds shortened. The trading terms of bank perpetual bonds and securities firm sub - bonds shifted from the middle to both ends [64] - **4.2 Trading liquidity**: The turnover rates of credit bonds increased. For urban investment bonds, except for the 3 - year - and - below term, the turnover rates of other terms increased, with the 7 - 10 - year term having the largest increase. For industrial bonds, except for the 3 - year - and - below term and the 3 - 5 - year term, the turnover rates of other terms increased, with the 7 - 10 - year term having the largest increase. For financial bonds, except for the 7 - 10 - year term and the 3 - 5 - year term, the turnover rates of other terms increased, with the 10 - year - and - above term having the largest increase [67] - **4.3 Spread tracking**: This week, the spreads of 1 - year and 7 - year urban investment bonds mostly widened, while those of other terms mostly narrowed. The spreads of AAA - rated industrial bonds mostly narrowed, while those of AA - rated industrial bonds mostly widened. The spreads of bank secondary and perpetual bonds mostly widened, with short - term spreads widening more. The spreads of securities firm sub - bonds and insurance sub - bonds mostly narrowed [74][77][79] 5. Weekly hot bonds overview - The report selects the top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of liquidity scores for investors' reference [83] 6. Review of credit rating adjustments - According to domestic rating agencies, 3 bonds had their credit ratings upgraded this week, and no bonds had their ratings downgraded [89]

行业周报 | 计算机 英伟达部分收编 Groq，或为补全推理芯片拼图 计算机行业周观点第 46 期 核心结论 计算机：从"+AI"到"AI+"，AI 巨轮破浪前 行 — 2026 年 计 算 机 行 业 年 度 策 略 2025-12-12 12 月 25 日，据 Business insider、CNBC 等外媒报道，英伟达已经同意以约 200 亿美元的现金，收购成立 9 年的 AI 芯片公司 Groq 的核心资产。英伟达 此次并非采取传统的收购标的公司 100%股权的方式。根据 Groq 官方博客与 英伟达的说法，这是一项非排他性授权协议，其主要内容包括：1）业务分 割：英伟达将获得 Groq 的所有资产与技术授权，但 Groq 旗下的 GroqCloud 云端业务并不在交易范围内，将维持独立运作。2）人才吸纳：作为该协议 的一部分，Groq 的创始人 Jonathan Ross、Groq 的总裁 Sunny Madra 以及 Groq 团队的其他成员将加入英伟达，以帮助推进和扩大授权技术的规模。3） 公司独立性：Groq 将继续作为一家"独立公司"运作，由原首席财务官 Simon Edwards 出任新 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 38.08 CNY per share, indicating a positive outlook for the stock's performance in the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to capitalize on structural upgrades in both the medical and consumer sectors through a dual business model of "medical + consumer" [1][6]. - The medical industry is transitioning from basic consumables to high-value products such as advanced dressings and customized surgical packs, driven by aging populations and rising medical standards [1]. - The consumer side is focusing on high-quality, safe, and environmentally friendly products, reflecting a trend towards health and quality of life [1]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenues of 7.897 billion CNY, a 30.10% increase year-over-year, and a net profit of 732 million CNY, up 32.36% [2]. - The consumer segment generated 4.01 billion CNY in revenue, with significant growth in key product categories: 63.9% for cotton soft towels, 15.7% for high-end sanitary napkins, and 17.3% for comfortable cotton clothing [2]. - The medical segment's revenue reached 3.83 billion CNY, marking a 44.4% increase, driven by the acquisition of GRI, which boosted surgical consumables by 185.3% [2]. Growth Projections - The company is expected to continue its global expansion, focusing on high-value medical products and enhancing synergies from the GRI acquisition [3]. - The strategic plan for the next three years includes specific growth targets and an employee stock incentive program to drive internal motivation [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) projections for 2025-2027 are 1.78 CNY, 2.13 CNY, and 2.44 CNY, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 21.3, 17.9, and 15.6 [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (兖矿能源) with a target price of 16.27 CNY per share [1][5]. Core Insights - The report anticipates that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders will be 9.448 billion, 12.019 billion, and 14.171 billion CNY for the years 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.94, 1.20, and 1.41 CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of -39.61%, 27.21%, and 17.91% respectively [1][20]. - The coal market is expected to maintain a stable price range of 700-800 CNY per ton from 2025 to 2027, despite market concerns about oversupply [2][16]. - The company has substantial coal reserves of 464 billion tons and a recoverable reserve of 60 billion tons, positioning it among the top coal producers in China [2][59]. - The company has a strong track record of cash dividends, with an average payout ratio of 49.82% since its listing, and a projected payout ratio of 53.58% for 2024 [2][20]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 120.47 billion, 127.92 billion, and 131.39 billion CNY for 2025-2027, with growth rates of -13.4%, 6.2%, and 2.7% respectively [3][20]. - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 15.644 billion CNY, down 23.9% from the previous year, while the 2025 net profit is projected to decline significantly before recovering in subsequent years [3][20]. Business Overview - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company operates as a comprehensive energy operator with a diverse business layout, including mining, high-end chemical materials, and renewable energy [27]. - The coal segment is expected to contribute 66% of total revenue and 83% of total profit in 2024, highlighting its critical role in the company's financial health [12][29]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the coal supply-demand balance is expected to remain stable, with domestic coal production projected to stabilize around 38.5-39 billion tons from 2025 to 2027 [55]. - The demand for coal is anticipated to remain robust due to the ongoing reliance on thermal power generation, which still accounts for a significant portion of electricity production in China [48][49].

Group 1: Company Overview - The report covers Damai Entertainment (1060.HK), a leading platform in live entertainment, driven by ticketing and IP derivatives [1][6][8] - The company is positioned in a high-growth sector, benefiting from the recovery and structural upgrade of offline entertainment consumption [1][8] - Expected adjusted net profits for FY26-28 are projected at 1.06 billion, 1.35 billion, and 1.58 billion CNY respectively [1][8] Group 2: Industry Insights - The live performance market is experiencing a significant increase, with ticket sales for large concerts expected to exceed 26 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 78.1% [6] - The demand for live entertainment is driven by both personal enjoyment and social needs, with an increase in repeat attendance [6] - The supply side is expanding with diversification in lower-tier cities and various performance categories [6] Group 3: IP Business - Alibaba's IP licensing platform, Aliyu, is a leading player in the market, with a projected GMV of 4.1 billion USD in 2024 [7] - The company is enhancing its collaboration with top IPs, which is expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth [7] - The film industry is still in a recovery phase, with a total box office of 29.23 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.91% [7] Group 4: Company Financials - Sinopec Engineering (02386.HK) is highlighted as a leading energy and chemical engineering firm with strong technical capabilities and a solid financial performance [10][12] - The company has a high dividend payout ratio, with a dividend yield exceeding 5%, providing stable returns for investors [10][12] - Expected target price for 2026 is set at 9.50 HKD per share, based on a 13x PE ratio [10] Group 5: Market Trends - The petrochemical industry is facing revenue stability but profit pressures, with a slight revenue decline of 2.6% year-on-year in H1 2025 [11] - The trend of "reducing oil and increasing chemicals" is evident, with a 9.94% year-on-year increase in ethylene consumption [11] - Global refining capacity continues to grow, particularly in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific regions, with a projected capital expenditure of 153.35 billion USD in 2024 [11] Group 6: Aviation Sector - Bank of China Aviation Leasing (02588.HK) is positioned to benefit from the rising aviation industry and the ongoing interest rate cut cycle [14][15] - The company ranks fifth globally with a fleet of 483 aircraft, poised to gain from increased revenues as the aviation market recovers [14][15] - Expected total revenue for 2025-2027 is projected at 2.63 billion, 2.85 billion, and 2.94 billion USD, with net profits of 761 million, 894 million, and 964 million USD respectively [16] Group 7: Medical Sector - Weisi Medical (688580.SH) is experiencing steady growth, with projected net profits of 133 million, 165 million, and 184 million CNY for 2025-2027 [4][18] - The company focuses on rehabilitation as its core business while expanding into aesthetic and urology sectors [18][19] - The company emphasizes product innovation in non-invasive brain-machine interfaces, aiming to create a comprehensive neuro-rehabilitation system [19]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Sinopec Engineering (02386.HK) with a target price of HKD 9.50 per share based on a 2026 PE of 13 times [1][5]. Core Insights - Sinopec Engineering is one of the largest energy and chemical engineering companies in China, with leading technical capabilities and strong backing from its parent company, Sinopec Group. The company is expanding its overseas business, contributing to performance growth. Additionally, it has a solid financial performance with a high dividend payout ratio, offering a stable yield of over 5% for investors [1][18]. Company Overview - Sinopec Engineering provides comprehensive services across the entire industry chain and lifecycle, focusing on refining and petrochemical engineering. It has a strong international competitive edge and a history of over 70 years [23][26]. - The company is backed by Sinopec Group, which holds a 62.52% stake, ensuring a stable business foundation [30][34]. Industry Analysis - The petrochemical industry is experiencing pressure on profits, with a slight revenue decline of 2.6% year-on-year in H1 2025, while total profits fell by 10.3%. However, the demand for petrochemical products remains, driven by the "reduce oil, increase chemicals" trend [2][17]. - Policy support for coal chemical development is evident, with significant investments planned in Xinjiang, exceeding 900 billion [2][17]. Financial Performance - For H1 2025, Sinopec Engineering reported a revenue increase of 10.14% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 4.83%. The company has maintained a dividend payout ratio above 63% over the past four years, with a current dividend yield of 5.33% [3][4]. - The company's revenue is projected to grow steadily, with estimates of 70.66 billion in 2025 and 78.10 billion in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 10.06% and 10.53% respectively [4][18]. Growth Drivers - The company has seen a 24.35% increase in new contracts signed in Q1-Q3 2025, with a backlog of contracts amounting to 215.47 billion, which is 3.36 times the expected revenue for 2024 [3][39]. - The overseas revenue for H1 2025 increased by 92% year-on-year, indicating strong growth potential in international markets [3][39].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to BOC Aviation (02588.HK) [6] Core Views - BOC Aviation is positioned to benefit from the rising aviation industry and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with a fleet of 483 aircraft, ranking fifth globally among aircraft leasing companies. The company is expected to see revenue growth from its global airline customer base and a decrease in funding costs due to lower interest rates, leading to an expansion of profit margins [2][6] - The aviation market is recovering strongly post-pandemic, with global available seat kilometers (ASK) returning to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2025. A shortage of aircraft supply due to delivery delays from Boeing and Airbus is expected to drive rental prices upward [2][3] Summary by Sections Company Overview - BOC Aviation, a leading aircraft leasing company backed by Bank of China, operates in 46 countries and regions, serving 88 airlines. The company has shown resilience and growth since its establishment in 1993 and its listing in Hong Kong in 2016 [22][23] Industry Analysis - The aviation leasing market is characterized by high concentration, with the top 20 companies holding a significant market share. The industry is currently in a recovery phase, with demand for air travel increasing, particularly in Europe and North America, while the Asia-Pacific region is expected to drive future growth [36][39][43] Competitive Advantages - BOC Aviation boasts a young fleet and long-term lease agreements, providing cost and liquidity advantages. The company is dynamically adjusting its debt structure to optimize financing costs, which are expected to decline as interest rates fall [3][12] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for BOC Aviation from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at $26.34 billion, $28.54 billion, and $29.39 billion, with corresponding net profits of $7.61 billion, $8.94 billion, and $9.64 billion. The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 8.53, 10.01, and 10.80 HKD respectively [4][12][13] Valuation and Target Price - The report suggests a target price of 84.37 HKD for BOC Aviation, based on a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.1 times, reflecting the company's strong position in the recovering aviation market and the anticipated decrease in funding costs [16]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, Dama Entertainment (1060.HK), marking its first coverage [4]. Core Insights - Dama Entertainment is positioned as a leading platform in the live entertainment sector, driven by ticket sales and IP derivatives. The live performance market is experiencing a "volume and price increase" with a projected box office revenue of over 26 billion yuan for large concerts in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 78.1%. The company benefits from the high demand in the domestic performance market and is expanding its content, international reach, and product categories [1][3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Dama Entertainment, formerly known as Cultural China, has evolved into a comprehensive entertainment platform focusing on live performances and IP derivatives. The company has undergone significant restructuring and acquisitions since its establishment in 2014, becoming a subsidiary of Alibaba Group in 2019 [17][20]. 2. Live Performance Sector - The live performance market is characterized by high growth, with Dama Entertainment maintaining a leading position. The company reported a revenue of 20.57 billion yuan from live performances in FY25, a year-on-year increase of 236%, contributing to 30.69% of total revenue [26][36]. The demand for live events is driven by social and self-pleasure needs, with an increasing frequency of attendance among younger audiences [43][49]. 3. IP Derivatives - Dama's IP business, led by Alibaba's IP platform, Alifish, is experiencing significant growth. In FY25, the IP derivatives revenue reached 14.33 billion yuan, up 73.21% year-on-year. Alifish is recognized as the largest IP licensing agent in China, with a strong network effect and a diverse portfolio of IPs [2][63][67]. 4. Film Sector - The film industry is still in a recovery phase, with a focus on stable content investment. The company plans to concentrate on key film projects, with a projected revenue of 27.12 billion yuan from its film technology and investment platform in FY25, despite a slight decline from the previous year [2][3][21]. 5. Financial Projections - The report forecasts adjusted net profits for Dama Entertainment to be 10.60 billion yuan, 13.54 billion yuan, and 15.77 billion yuan for FY26, FY27, and FY28, respectively, indicating a robust growth trajectory [3][13]. The company is expected to maintain a strong market position while benefiting from the ongoing recovery in offline entertainment consumption [3][10].