行业日报 | 北交所 震荡调整，雅江板块活跃，关注业绩确定性及稀缺性品种 2025 年 08 月 11 日 证券研究报告 北交所市场点评——20250808 核心结论 行情回顾：1）指数层面：8 月 8 日北证 A 股成交金额达 263.0 亿元，较上 一交易日减少 9.5 亿元，北证 50 指数收盘价为 1441.72，下跌 1.22%， PE_TTM 为 67.30 倍。北证专精特新指数收盘价为 2485.10，下跌 1.65%。 2）个股层面：当日北交所 270 家公司中 65 家上涨，5 家平盘，200 家下跌。 其中涨幅前五的个股分别为：交大铁发（23.7%）、铁拓机械（11.3%）、 广信科技（10.7%）、五新隧装（10.3%）、戈碧迦（9.4%）；跌幅前五的 个股分别为：华密新材（-12.5%）、众诚科技（-8.9%）、阿为特（-6.9%）、 三维股份（-6.4%）、广道数字（-5.8%）。 新闻汇总：1）"华龙一号"添新成员 浙江金七门核电 1 号机组核岛建设全 面启动：位于浙江宁波的金七门核电 1 号机组核岛混凝土开始浇筑，核岛建 设全面启动，"华龙一号"核电机组再添新成员。2）ChatG ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5][11]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.871 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.86%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 526 million yuan, up 10.70% year-on-year [1][5]. - The CDMO segment showed strong growth with a revenue of 2.291 billion yuan, an increase of 16.27%, and a gross margin of 41.0% [2]. - The company is expanding its project pipeline, with 38 projects already on the market and 90 in Phase III clinical trials, indicating a robust growth trajectory [2][3]. - The company is also enhancing its capabilities in peptide and conjugated drugs, as well as small nucleic acid technology platforms, which are expected to contribute to future growth [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.381 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.15%, and a net profit of 276 million yuan, up 15.70% year-on-year [1][5]. - The company’s revenue for the first half of 2025 was 2.871 billion yuan, with a net profit of 526 million yuan, reflecting a positive trend in profitability [1][5]. CDMO Business - The CDMO segment's revenue reached 2.291 billion yuan, growing by 16.27%, with a gross margin of 41.0% [2]. - The company has a diverse project pipeline, including 1,086 projects in Phase I and II clinical trials, covering various therapeutic areas [2][3]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 5.879 billion yuan, 6.319 billion yuan, and 6.731 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 13.9%, 7.5%, and 6.5% [3][4]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 919 million yuan, 1.086 billion yuan, and 1.148 billion yuan, with growth rates of 51.6%, 18.2%, and 5.7% [3][4].

有色金属行业周报（2025.08.04-2025.08.10） 核心结论 本周核心关注一：美联储部分官员释放鸽派信号，特朗普提名新理事 8 月 6 日，美国明尼阿波利斯联储主席、2026 年 FOMC 票委卡什卡利媒体 采访时表示，"经济正在放缓"，因此"在短期内开始调整联邦基金利率可 能变得合适"。他重申，他个人仍预计到今年年底会有两次降息。此外旧金 山联储主席戴利也发出了类似鸽派呼声，称美联储可能需要在未来几个月降 低利率。8 月 8 日清晨，特朗普在 Truth Social 社交平台上宣布，提名现任 白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）出任美联储理事。 本周核心关注二：中国收紧锂矿审查，加速供应重构，宁德时代枧下窝矿区 确认(8 月 9 日)24 时停产，短期无复产计划 行业周报 | 有色金属 宁德时代枧下窝矿区确认停产，或引发碳酸锂价格上涨 据期货日报，据市场多方交叉证实，宁德时代旗下机下窝矿区采矿端将于 (8 月 9 日)24 时正式停产。自 8 月 10 日起，该矿区采矿作业全面暂停，且短 期内无复产安排。后续影响仍待观察。 本周核心关注三：美国 7 月服务业 PMI ...

Group 1: Company Overview - Gu Ming (01364.HK) has a strong core competitiveness in delivering fresh fruits and milk to lower-tier cities with a two-day shelf life, benefiting from significant cost advantages [1][6] - The company has a leading quarterly repurchase rate supported by a robust supply chain and high-quality research and development [1][7] - The store count in the top eight key provinces accounts for nearly 80% under the regional densification strategy [1][7] Group 2: Industry Insights - The tea beverage industry is characterized by a long-term growth trajectory, with brands possessing comprehensive capabilities expected to dominate the market [6][7] - The head effect intensifies, leading to rapid expansion of second and third-tier brands, while local long-tail brands will follow suit [6] Group 3: Financial Projections - Gu Ming's projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 116 billion, 140 billion, and 169 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of 21 billion, 26 billion, and 32 billion [8] - The company is expected to achieve a PE ratio of 26X, 21X, and 17X for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, indicating strong growth potential [8] Group 4: Competitive Advantages - The company maximizes supply chain efficiency and offers products with a high quality-to-price ratio, which enhances customer loyalty and repurchase rates [7][8] - The regional densification strategy allows for a significant market share in key provinces, while the coffee segment is expected to increase per-store revenue [8] Group 5: Market Position - Ju Chen Co., Ltd. (688123.SH) is positioned as a global leader in EEPROM, with a strong foothold in the smartphone camera market and a growing presence in automotive-grade EEPROM products [11][12] - The company is expected to see revenue growth from its DDR5 SPD products, with projected revenues of 13.09 billion, 17.95 billion, and 24.03 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [11][12] Group 6: Industry Trends - The macroeconomic environment shows signs of stabilization, with CPI remaining flat and core CPI rebounding, indicating potential for price recovery in the second half of the year [15][17] - The electrical equipment sector, represented by Hua Ming Equipment (002270.SZ), is experiencing stable growth in core business and significant export growth, with projected net profits of 7.38 billion, 8.44 billion, and 9.43 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 [19][21]

Group 1: Policy Impact on Consumption - The "old-for-new" policy has seen a subsidy scale double to 300 billion yuan, with 162 billion yuan allocated in the first half of the year[10] - Retail sales in China grew by 5% year-on-year in the first half of the year, but the monthly growth rate fell from 6.4% in May to 4.8% in June, indicating a slowdown[11] - The consumption multiplier effect of the "old-for-new" policy for home appliances and automobiles decreased from 2.29/2.68 times in Q4 2024 to 1.96/2.11 times in the first half of 2025[15] Group 2: Sector Performance - The service consumption sector is expected to take over from goods consumption as the main driver of growth, supported by policy shifts towards service consumption[2] - The automotive sector saw a significant increase in sales, with over 290 million vehicles scrapped and 370 million replaced in 2024, generating over 920 billion yuan in sales[30] - The consumer electronics sector experienced a decline in retail growth, with the retail growth rate for communication equipment dropping from 33% to 13.9% in June 2025[35] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The macroeconomic environment shows a recovery in upstream industrial prices, while downstream demand continues to decline, particularly in logistics[54] - The real estate sector remains under pressure, with a year-on-year decline in new housing sales area narrowing to -6.6% in June 2025, compared to -13.8% in the previous year[42] - The government plans to issue 4.4 trillion yuan in special bonds for infrastructure projects in 2025, an increase of 500 billion yuan from the previous year[36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the robotics sector and recommends specific companies for investment [1][2]. Core Insights - The 2025 World Robot Conference (WRC) opened with a record number of humanoid robot companies participating, indicating strong interest in the humanoid robotics sector. Companies recommended include Wuzhou Xinchun, Zhaowei Electromechanical, and Keda Li [1]. - The 2025 Open Computing Technology Conference is expected to enhance global collaboration in AIDC, with Meta securing $29 billion in financing for its data center expansion in Louisiana. Recommended companies in the AI data center space include Megmeet and Lande Electric [1]. - The electric power market is undergoing continuous reform, with the Zhejiang province's electricity spot market officially starting operations. The report recommends companies such as Guoneng Rixin and Siyuan Electric in the nuclear fusion sector [3]. Summary by Sections Robotics Sector - The humanoid robotics industry is gaining traction, with a recommendation to focus on Tesla and domestic robotics supply chain changes. Key companies to watch include Wuzhou Xinchun, Zhaowei Electromechanical, and Keda Li [1]. Electric Vehicles - SAIC launched the new MG4, which features semi-solid-state batteries expected to be delivered within the year. Recommended companies in the electric vehicle sector include Haopeng Technology and Terui De [2]. Wind Power Projects - The Guangxi Beihai City has initiated a competitive allocation for a 1.95GW offshore wind power project, indicating accelerated project implementation in the wind power sector. Recommended companies include Dajin Heavy Industry and Goldwind Technology [2]. Nuclear Fusion and Electricity Market - The report highlights the active bidding in nuclear fusion projects and the establishment of a competitive pricing mechanism for electricity in Shandong province, with specific price limits set for wind and solar power [3][47][49]. Recommended companies include XJ Electric and Siyuan Electric [3]. Solar Power Industry - The report notes that the solar power industry is experiencing stable pricing across various components, with specific recommendations for companies like Sunshine Power and Xiexin Technology [3][31]. Market Trends - The report indicates a positive trend in the electric power equipment sector, with a notable increase in the stock index for electric power equipment [61].

- The weekly performance of public quantitative funds shows that the average excess return of CSI 300 index-enhanced funds was 0.17%, with 82.61% of funds achieving positive excess returns[1][9]. - The monthly performance indicates that the average excess return of CSI 300 index-enhanced funds was 0.32%, with 84.06% of funds achieving positive excess returns[2][9]. - Year-to-date (YTD) performance reveals that the average excess return of CSI 300 index-enhanced funds was 1.03%, with 77.05% of funds achieving positive excess returns[3][9]. - The weekly average excess return of CSI A500 index-enhanced funds was 0.20%, with 73.81% of funds achieving positive excess returns[1][9]. - The monthly average excess return of CSI A500 index-enhanced funds was 0.40%, with 82.93% of funds achieving positive excess returns[2][9]. - YTD performance shows that the average excess return of CSI A500 index-enhanced funds was 3.32%, with 87.50% of funds achieving positive excess returns[3][9]. - The weekly average excess return of CSI 500 index-enhanced funds was 0.01%, with 55.71% of funds achieving positive excess returns[1][9]. - The monthly average excess return of CSI 500 index-enhanced funds was 0.27%, with 81.43% of funds achieving positive excess returns[2][9]. - YTD performance indicates that the average excess return of CSI 500 index-enhanced funds was 2.42%, with 81.82% of funds achieving positive excess returns[3][9]. - The weekly average excess return of CSI 1000 index-enhanced funds was -0.16%, with 39.13% of funds achieving positive excess returns[1][9]. - The monthly average excess return of CSI 1000 index-enhanced funds was 0.05%, with 54.35% of funds achieving positive excess returns[2][9]. - YTD performance shows that the average excess return of CSI 1000 index-enhanced funds was 5.81%, with 95.65% of funds achieving positive excess returns[3][9]. - The weekly average return of active quantitative funds was 1.90%, with 96.13% of funds achieving positive returns[1][9]. - The monthly average return of active quantitative funds was 1.88%, with 94.19% of funds achieving positive returns[2][9]. - YTD performance reveals that the average return of active quantitative funds was 14.99%, with 97.91% of funds achieving positive returns[3][9]. - The weekly average return of market-neutral funds was 0.29%, with 82.61% of funds achieving positive returns[1][9]. - The monthly average return of market-neutral funds was 0.33%, with 82.61% of funds achieving positive returns[2][9]. - YTD performance indicates that the average return of market-neutral funds was 1.38%, with 78.26% of funds achieving positive returns[3][9].

Group 1: Core Conclusions - The report highlights that AI's demand for computing power accelerates the iteration of communication technology, with significant opportunities in marine energy and communication sectors. The company, as a global leader in the optical cable industry, is expected to benefit from the rising demand in both communication and energy fields. Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 3.4 billion, 3.9 billion, and 4.5 billion CNY, with growth rates of 21.7%, 15.7%, and 15.7% respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 12, 10, and 9 times [1][6][7] Group 2: Company Overview - The company is ranked among the top three in the global optical fiber communication industry and marine cable systems, focusing on both communication and energy sectors. It possesses a complete production and service capability across the entire industry chain, from optical fiber preform to optical fiber cable and optical network deployment [6][7] - In the communication sector, the company is a top player in the optical fiber cable market and the only domestic company with the capability to deliver cross-border marine cable systems. In the energy sector, it maintains a leading position in land power grids, offshore wind cables, and specialty cables, with a comprehensive product range across various voltage levels [6][7] Group 3: Market Trends and Opportunities - The demand for low-loss and hollow-core optical fibers is increasing due to the growth in computing power, which is driving the iteration of communication infrastructure. The company has strategically positioned itself in next-generation fiber technology, achieving significant market shares in recent tenders and projects [7] - The government has included deep-sea technology in its work report, indicating ongoing policy support for marine energy and communication sectors. The company is well-positioned to benefit from the accelerated installation of offshore wind power and the increasing demand for submarine cables as the industry enters a replacement phase [7] Group 4: Financial Performance - For Ningde Times, the company reported a revenue of 178.886 billion CNY and a net profit of 30.485 billion CNY for the first half of 2025, reflecting year-on-year increases of 7.27% and 33.33% respectively. The second quarter saw a revenue of 94.182 billion CNY, up 8.26% year-on-year, and a net profit of 16.523 billion CNY, up 33.73% year-on-year [9][10] - For Zhongchong Co., the company achieved a revenue of 2.432 billion CNY and a net profit of 203 million CNY in the first half of 2025, with year-on-year increases of 24.32% and 42.56% respectively. The second quarter revenue was 1.331 billion CNY, up 23.44% year-on-year [13][14]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the industry, particularly in sectors such as military, robotics, and new energy vehicles, driven by policy support and technological innovation [5][30]. Core Insights - The North Exchange A-shares saw a trading volume of 25.47 billion yuan on August 6, 2025, an increase of 5.49 billion yuan from the previous trading day, with the North Exchange 50 Index closing at 1459.51, up 1.58% [3][14]. - The report highlights that 198 out of 269 companies listed on the North Exchange experienced price increases, with notable gainers including Huami New Materials (30.0%) and Fuheng New Materials (16.0%) [25][28]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing structural opportunities in the market, supported by the release of policy dividends and the development of emerging technology industries [7]. Summary by Sections Market Review - On August 6, 2025, the North Exchange A-shares had a trading volume of 25.47 billion yuan, with the North Exchange 50 Index rising by 1.58% and the specialized index increasing by 2.15% [3][14]. - The report notes that the automotive, defense, construction materials, and basic chemicals sectors showed strong performance, with military and robotics themes gaining traction due to policy support and technological advancements [5][30]. Important News - The report mentions a government initiative aiming to complete the construction and renovation of 300,000 kilometers of rural roads by 2027, enhancing rural transportation infrastructure [30]. - It also highlights Shanghai's plan for the embodied intelligence industry, targeting a core industry scale of 50 billion yuan, focusing on technological innovation and market integration [32]. Key Company Announcements - Tonghui Electronics reported a half-year revenue of 100 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.81%, with a net profit of 29 million yuan, up 55.4% [33]. - Other companies such as Chengdian Guangxin and Gebijia announced plans for share reductions by major shareholders [35][36].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][13]. Core Views - The company reported better-than-expected Q2 performance, focusing on overseas expansion benefits [1][2]. - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 178.886 billion yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of 30.485 billion yuan, and non-recurring net profit of 27.187 billion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 7.27%, 33.33%, and 35.62% respectively [1][6]. - The company plans to distribute 15% of H1 2025 net profit (46 billion yuan) as cash dividends [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 94.182 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.26% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.19% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q2 2025 was 16.523 billion yuan, up 33.73% year-on-year and 18.33% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The sales gross margin was 25.58%, down 1.06 percentage points year-on-year but up 1.17 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has a strong position in the power storage battery sector, with a sales net profit margin reaching a historical peak of 18.59% in Q2 2025 [2]. - The total shipment volume for H1 2025 was 275 GWh, with a focus on overseas market expansion expected to boost market share post-2026 [2]. - The company is projected to increase its global power market share to 39% by 2027, driven by the European market and the LRS authorization model in the U.S. [2]. Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 66.178 billion yuan, 80.831 billion yuan, and 94.845 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 30.4%, 22.1%, and 17.3% [3][4]. - Corresponding EPS for the same years is projected to be 14.51 yuan, 17.73 yuan, and 20.80 yuan [3][4].