Report Information - Report Title: Key Container Ports and Critical Hub Monitoring 20250626 [1] - Research Institute: Orient Futures Derivatives Research Institute - Department: Black and Shipping - Analyst: Lan Xi - Qualification Number: F03086543 - Investment Consulting Number: Z0016590 Report Core View - The operation of domestic ports will continue to be under pressure due to the superposition of typhoon season and export peak season. European ports still face potential congestion risks, and the scale of ships in US West ports has increased, but the congestion is currently controllable [2]. Data Review Asia Ports - **Container Ship Dwell Time and Quantity**: In Yangshan Port and Waigaoqiao, the weekly average waiting time/berthing time of ocean - going container ships are 21.7 hours/23.8 hours and 1.0 hour/20.3 hours respectively, with the latest number of container ships at anchor/berthed being 27/29 and 22/27. In Ningbo Port, they are 14.7 hours/25.8 hours, and 28/34. In Qingdao Port, 28.5 hours/49.2 hours. In Singapore Port, 1.0 hour/28.7 hours, and 8/48. In Port Klang, 5.3 hours/31.3 hours, and 4/20 [2]. - **Congestion Situation**: Affected by fog and big waves, the congestion in Qingdao Port has deteriorated significantly. Although the congestion in Shanghai and Ningbo areas has improved, the ship dwell time in port is still at an absolute high. Affected by Typhoon No. 1, ports in South China have been shut down, and the congestion and ship - schedule delays have worsened. There is a risk of further deterioration due to the possible formation of Typhoon No. 3. Port Klang's congestion has eased, but there is a risk of recurrence, and the congestion pressure in Singapore Port has increased [2]. Europe Ports - **Container Ship Dwell Time and Quantity**: In Rotterdam, Antwerp, Hamburg, and Bremen, the weekly average waiting time/berthing time of ocean - going container ships are 13.2 hours/48.8 hours, 15.7 hours/37.2 hours, 9.3 hours/48.4 hours, and 3.4 hours/37.3 hours respectively, with the latest number of container ships at anchor/berthed being 4/28, 10/10, 4/12. In Valencia, they are 7.7 hours/35.5 hours, and 3/10 [2]. - **Congestion Situation**: Most ports in Northwest Europe have better congestion conditions than the same period last year, but only Antwerp and Bremen still have relatively serious congestion. However, the risks in European ports remain, as planned strikes in Belgium, railway construction in Germany, and the upcoming summer holidays all indicate potential pressure for increased congestion [2]. North America Ports - **Container Ship Dwell Time and Quantity**: In Long Beach, Los Angeles, and Tacoma, the weekly average waiting time/berthing time of ocean - going container ships are 0 hours/95.4 hours, 2.8 hours/105.6 hours, and 0 hours/91.2 hours respectively. The number of container ships at anchor in Long Beach and Los Angeles is 0, and the number of berthed container ships is 22. In New York, Savannah, and Norfolk, they are 2.9 hours/41.3 hours, 4.2 hours/35.8 hours, and 17.1 hours/23.1 hours respectively. In New York, the number of container ships at anchor/berthed is 0/9. In Houston Port, they are 6.7 hours/47.6 hours [2]. - **Congestion Situation**: Affected by the concentrated arrival of goods, the scale of ships in US West ports has increased, but the current congestion is controllable, and the ship dwell time in port has not significantly extended [2]. Key Container Ports Dwell Time - The report provides the latest period, monthly average, year - on - year, and month - on - month data of the dwell time of key container ports such as Yangshan, Ningbo, Singapore, and Rotterdam [5]. Port Dynamic Tracking - **Asia**: It shows the in - port scale of container ships in China and Southeast Asia, and the average in - port time, waiting time, and berthing time of container ports [8][16] - **Europe**: It presents the in - port scale of container ships in Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean/Black Sea, and the average in - port time, waiting time, and berthing time of container ports [19][27] - **North America**: It displays the in - port scale of container ships in North America, and the average in - port time, waiting time, and berthing time of container ports [39][41] Large - Ship Arrival and Key Hub Monitoring - It monitors the arrival situation of large - container ships in ports such as Yangshan, Ningbo, and Singapore, and the arrival situation of 1.2w+ container ships of different alliances in Asia, Northwest Europe, and the Mediterranean [45][48] - It also monitors the passage conditions of container ships at the Cape of Good Hope, Suez Canal, and Panama Canal [50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the trend of nickel and stainless steel is "sideways" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The downstream demand weakness is gradually giving negative feedback to the upstream. The smelting sector is suffering large - scale losses, and only the MHP segment has a good profit margin. This will make smelters more inclined to push down the price of pyrometallurgical ores. In the third quarter, with the reduced impact of the rainy season in Indonesia, production and transportation efficiency will improve marginally, and the pyrometallurgical ores in Indonesia will face pressure of declining premiums. However, the supply of high - grade pyrometallurgical ores is tight, which may limit the decline in prices [2][70] - Currently, both upstream and downstream are squeezing the smelting profit to an inverted state. The output adjustment actions of Chinese - funded enterprises are less sensitive to profit. If the short - term production cut is less than expected, the oversupply situation may intensify. In terms of structure, new capacity of NPI in Indonesia is still being put into production, but most of the production schedules have been postponed. The supply - demand situation has deteriorated marginally. Attention should be paid to the production cut rhythm in the second half of the year. For refined nickel, it is still in the expansion cycle, but the share is gradually concentrating on the leading enterprises. The integration of hydrometallurgy squeezing pyrometallurgy is the future trend. The supply increment this year basically matches the increment of intermediate products. However, the current implicit inventory replenishment supports the explicit inventory, and its sustainability in the second half of the year needs to be monitored [3] - In the second half of the year, the nickel consumption side has declined compared with the initial expectations at the beginning of the year. For stainless steel, although the export side is okay, tariffs will indirectly suppress domestic demand. Due to weak demand, steel mills are suffering losses and cutting production, which weakens the nickel consumption. For ternary materials, it is estimated that the year - on - year decline in production in the second half of the year will narrow compared with the first half of the year. In general, the domestic ternary nickel consumption will decline by 14,000 metal tons year - on - year. Abroad, the ternary production capacity is gradually ramping up, which will make up for part of the reduction in China from a global perspective. Comprehensively, the consumption of nickel sulfate will show a slight decline [4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Mineral End 3.1.1 Sulfide Nickel Ore - The production cut rhythm of sulfide nickel ore has slowed down, and the existing production lines are operating stably. Vale's Onça Puma operation area achieved higher production after the furnace reconstruction in Q1 2024, and Canada's VBME also promoted a large year - on - year increase in the sulfide nickel ore project in the Canadian region due to higher production. Russian nickel's production in Q1 2025 decreased by 1.1% year - on - year to 41,600 tons due to the short - term maintenance plans of the Nadezhda smelter and the Talnakh concentrator. Currently, Russian nickel is facing a decline in foreign currency income due to the appreciation of the ruble and the restriction of high - interest rates on investment plans. In the context of the trade war, weak demand may drag down the overall production. The company expects the total refined nickel production in 2025 to reach 204,000 - 211,000 tons, and it is more likely to fall on the left side of the range, basically flat year - on - year [23] - In Australia, the production of the currently operating nickel ore projects remained at a low level in the first quarter. The decline in ore grade has indirectly led to an increase in mining and processing costs and a marginal decrease in the final output of nickel products. BHP stopped the operation of its refined nickel production line in October last year. In Q1 2025, it only had a high - grade nickel matte production of 2,300 metal tons, and the mine end was completely shut down. The Mt Keith and Leinster nickel ore projects had zero production in Q1 2025, and the high - grade nickel matte project is also expected to stop production later. IGO has only had the Nova project since the fourth quarter of last year. In Q1 2025, its nickel production decreased by 6.5% year - on - year to 4,279 metal tons (only comparing Nova itself, the total production decreased by 34.4% year - on - year) and increased by 23% quarter - on - quarter. Although the nickel ore grade has been improved this quarter due to factors such as the mining sequence and the stoping area, the expected nickel ore grade this year is still at a historical low. It is estimated that the nickel production in the 2025 fiscal year will be on the left side of the guidance range (guidance: 15,000 - 18,000 tons). The Nova - Bollinger mine is expected to stop production at the end of Q4 2026 due to grade depletion [24] - Overall, after the large - scale clearance of high - cost production lines of sulfide nickel ore in 2024, the existing production capacity can basically maintain normal production and is no longer affected by the profit collapse. It is expected that except for the Nova project, which will stop production due to reserve issues, the production of other sulfide nickel ore projects will basically fluctuate within the current production range [28] 3.1.2 Laterite Nickel Ore - **Indonesia**: The expectation of ore shortage within the year has been alleviated, and the nickel ore price is under great pressure to decline in the third quarter. At the beginning of the year, although APNI announced that the annual nickel ore quota had been approved for about 298 million wet tons, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources later set the annual nickel ore production target at 220 million wet tons and repeatedly stated that it would cut the RKAB nickel ore quota. Coupled with the heavy rainfall on the Greater K Island, the local transportation and supply rhythm were restricted, and the nickel ore premium quickly increased. As of the end of May, the approved RKAB quota in Indonesia was about 300 million wet tons. However, due to the long rainy season on the Greater K Island this year and the mismatch between the actual shipment capacity and production capacity of some mines that have obtained RKAB approvals, the supply of nickel ore in the market is still tight, and the domestic trade price has not weakened. It is estimated that the annual nickel ore consumption in Indonesia will reach 280 - 290 million wet tons, and the supply, after considering the supply efficiency based on the quota, is expected to be about 260 million wet tons, still having a certain supply - demand gap. This gap can be partly filled by importing nickel ore from the Philippines, but the cost is relatively high, which puts great pressure on smelters. In the second half of the year, there is still an import demand for Philippine nickel ore, but the year - on - year growth rate should slow down compared with the first half of the year, with an estimated annual import volume of over 14 million wet tons. If the domestic nickel ore quota in Indonesia is insufficient, mining enterprises can still apply for new quotas to expand the supply [29][32] - **Philippines**: There was a short - term supply - demand mismatch in the first half of the year, and the price is under great pressure to decline in the second half of the year. With the significant year - on - year increase in Indonesia's demand for Philippine nickel ore and the 4.7% year - on - year decline in the first - quarter production of Philippine nickel ore, the tight supply pattern of Philippine nickel ore has pushed up the price rapidly. The CIF price of 1.4% grade nickel ore from the Philippines to Indonesia and China has risen from $44 per wet ton at the beginning of the year to about $53 per wet ton in mid - June. It is estimated that the raw material demand will weaken marginally in the third quarter, and the price will be under pressure. The production of Philippine nickel ore has strong seasonality. Affected by the long rainy season this year, the first - quarter production decreased by 4.7% year - on - year. Based on the analysis of Indonesian nickel ore, the annual demand for Philippine nickel ore from Indonesia is supported, but the year - on - year growth rate slows down compared with the first half of the year. The iron plants in China are expected to maintain rigid demand. The annual production forecast of Philippine nickel ore is raised to 401,000 metal tons, a year - on - year decline of 1.3%. From the perspective of domestic imports and port inventories, Philippine nickel ore is still the main import source. The port inventory has decreased rapidly this year, and the overall domestic import volume has decreased significantly year - on - year. It is expected that the domestic import volume of Philippine nickel ore will continue to decline year - on - year before the ore price drops or the NPI profit recovers. In the first quarter, the income of major nickel ore enterprises in the Philippines increased significantly. Asian Nickel's first - quarter sales revenue increased by 16% year - on - year, but the combined EBITDA decreased by 80 million pesos year - on - year due to the increase in marginal cost caused by bad weather. The income of Global Ferronickel in the first quarter reached 1.22 billion pesos, and the net profit attributable to FNI shareholders increased significantly from 10.6 million pesos in the same period last year to 170 million pesos. In terms of new nickel ore projects, Asian Nickel has adjusted its exploration plan, with the South Upper Guintalunan project put into production at the end of 2024 and Manicani expected to contribute incremental production in 2025 [52][53][63] 3.1.3 Conclusion and Thoughts - The clearance process of high - cost sulfide nickel ore production lines is basically over. Except for the Nova project, which will stop production due to reserve issues, the production of other sulfide nickel ore projects will basically fluctuate within the current production range [70] - The supply of laterite nickel ore was tight in the first half of the year, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of ore supply loosening and price decline. The nickel ore market in Indonesia has felt tight since the beginning of 2025. The high import volume of Philippine nickel ore may be a last - resort measure due to the shortage. The "ore shortage" concern mentioned in the first - quarter report has been temporarily alleviated, but the annual supply is still tight, and new quotas may be released in the fourth quarter. Currently, the downstream demand weakness is giving negative feedback to the upstream. The smelting sector is suffering large - scale losses, and only the MHP segment has a good profit margin. This will make smelters more inclined to push down the price of pyrometallurgical ores. It is judged that in the third quarter, with the reduced impact of the rainy season in Indonesia, the pyrometallurgical ores in Indonesia will face pressure of declining premiums. However, the high - grade pyrometallurgical ores are still scarce in the market, which may limit the decline in price [70] 3.2 Smelting End 3.2.1 Nickel Iron - **China**: After the low - cost NPI from Indonesia has squeezed the domestic market share, the high - cost production lines of domestic nickel iron plants have basically been cleared. The domestic enterprises still in operation are mostly integrated with downstream steel mills for self - use, and only a small amount of marketable resources are still in production. It is expected that the domestic production will maintain a low - level fluctuation, and more expansion projects will be invested in Indonesia. It is relatively difficult to see further domestic production cuts, which may require the joint production cut of downstream stainless steel. In 2025, the monthly NPI production in China is basically between 22,000 - 25,000 metal tons. From January to May, the production decreased slightly to 115,000 metal tons compared with the same period last year. From January to April, the import volume was 442,000 metal tons, an increase of 62,000 metal tons or 16.4% year - on - year. Considering the expected weakening of stainless steel consumption in the future, it is estimated that the domestic NPI production will decrease by 10,000 metal tons to 290,000 metal tons this year. After the US reciprocal tariff was implemented in April, the demand for downstream stainless steel weakened significantly. In May, some cold - rolling mills began to cut production, which gradually led to a slowdown in NPI procurement and an accumulation of NPI social inventory. As of mid - June, the NPI inventory in major domestic regions reached 34,610 tons, with a year - on - year/quarter - on - quarter inventory accumulation rate of 57.9%/10% [75][79] - **Indonesia**: In the first half of 2025, 6 new submerged arc furnaces were put into production in Indonesia, and the production increase rate slowed down significantly, with a total new annual production capacity of about 90,000 metal tons. Currently, the total number of operating furnaces in Indonesia has reached 223, and the capacity utilization rate is about 70% - 80%. From January to May, the total NPI production in Indonesia was 751,000 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 23%. From the cost - profit perspective, the current cost of a single nickel point in Indonesia is about 957 - 1040 yuan per nickel, and the corresponding gross profit margin at a price of 940 yuan per nickel (ex - ship, tax included) is between - 12% and - 3%. Both Chinese and Indonesian iron plants are in a loss state, and downstream steel mills have a strong intention to push down the raw material price. Although NPI has cost support and is restricted from further decline, there is no driving force for a rebound. If the nickel ore price drops as expected in the second half of the year and the stainless steel demand does not recover, NPI may face further price pressure due to cost reduction. It is believed that NPI will face production cut pressure in the second half of the year due to weakening demand and shrinking profit. If the production cut is less than expected, the balance sheet may further deteriorate, leading to a further decline in the NPI price. The overall production capacity expansion speed this year has slowed down significantly. In the first half of the year, only KPS, NMI, NNI, and CNI put a total of 6 furnaces into production, involving a production capacity of about 90,000 metal tons. Under the current industry competition, the new production line investment is often postponed, and some un - commissioned furnaces may be directly shut down [81] 3.2.2 Intermediate Products: High - Grade Nickel Matte and MHP - MHP is currently the product with the lowest cost and best profit in the smelting sector, showing a gradual expansion trend this year. However, due to the large initial investment, long pay - back period, and long construction period of hydrometallurgical production capacity, new entrants are mostly large - scale leading enterprises, and the production capacity release process is relatively slow. From January to May 2025, the total MHP production in Indonesia was 184,800 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 66%. In late March, due to environmental factors, some hydrometallurgical production lines were shut down, resulting in a month - on - month decrease of about 7,000 metal tons in production, which was fully recovered in mid - May. As of June, the commissioned MHP production lines have basically reached full production or even over - production, and future production growth depends on the new production capacity release speed [92] - In the first quarter, the economic efficiency of high - grade nickel matte was worse than that of NPI produced by the same RKEF production line. Since the conversion between RKEF production of NPI and high - grade nickel matte is very flexible, most production lines such as Zhongwei, Huake, and Xuri switched to NPI production, and the high - grade nickel matte production decreased rapidly. From January to May 2025, the total production of low - grade and high - grade nickel matte in Indonesia (excluding the part of low - grade nickel matte converted to high - grade nickel matte) was 114,000 metal tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.8%, lower than the levels in 2023 and 2024. The oxygen - enriched side - blowing production line is only used for high - grade nickel matte production, but its current production capacity accounts for a relatively low proportion. In May, the production of high - grade nickel matte from the oxygen - enriched side - blowing production accounted for about 14% [93] - Considering the combined monthly metal production of MHP and high - grade nickel matte, it has shown a rapid downward trend since the beginning of the year. Even when combined with the NPI metal production, it has shown a slight downward trend, which may reflect the tight supply of nickel ore. Looking forward, if the smelting sector is reluctant to cut production despite strong downstream negative feedback and the nickel ore supply is expected to loosen, and if the combined metal production of the three shows a marginal upward trend, the high demand for nickel ore will continue, which will limit the decline in nickel ore price, and the high - price nickel ore will squeeze the smelting profit and limit production expansion. On the contrary, if the smelting sector cuts production due to profit inversion, the demand for raw materials will weaken, and the nickel ore price may decline, leading to a simultaneous decline in smelting production and cost. Overall, under the continuous downstream negative feedback, it is believed that the smelting production will likely decline in the future, and the profit inversion will also put pressure on the nickel ore price. As long as the nickel ore supply loosens marginally, it will prompt the smelting sector to re - establish a balance at a reasonable low level [94] - China mainly imports intermediate products, with

半年度报告-PVC/烧碱 PVC：危中孕机，烧碱：宽幅震荡 | [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] | PVC：震荡/烧碱：震荡 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 26 | 年 | 6 | 月 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★PVC：极低价格下，下半年 PVC 有望继续去库 上半年 PVC 虽然被资金大量空配，但极低价格下，需求的改善使 得其持续去库。展望下半年，PVC 供应端在新增产能投放下环比或 有 2%的增长。需求端大概率在 7 月中央经济工作会议之后迎来新 一轮的刺激政策，环比或能略有改善。若印度反倾销落地，会对中 国 PVC 出口造成一定的短期冲击，但长期不足以抵消中国 PVC 出 口的竞争力，下半年 PVC 出口有望继续维持高位。总的来看，若 下半年 PVC 仍维持极低价格，则其去库的格局有望延续。 能 源 ★烧碱：下半年供需变动有限 化 工 上半年烧碱价格先在氧化铝投产预期下暴涨，又在氧化铝亏损减仓 预期下暴跌，充分体现了其液体化工巨大的价格弹性。展望下半年， 新增产能的投放会使得烧碱供应略 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the bottle chip industry is "Oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bottle chip industry maintains a pattern of loose supply and demand, with absolute prices dominated by the cost side and difficult to have an independent market. Domestic demand growth falls short of expectations this year, and although exports are strong, they are insufficient to absorb the supply increment, leading to a faster accumulation of social inventory. However, the active adjustment by factories increases, and the supply side may continue to show periodic fluctuation characteristics, which will improve the industry's supply - demand situation periodically. The industry's profit is likely to remain sluggish, and the processing fee is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, following the cost side. There are opportunities for operation in the range of 300 - 500 yuan/ton for the disk processing fee [3][74][75] Summary According to the Directory 1. 2025 H1 Bottle Chip Market Review - In H1 2025, bottle chip prices closely followed polyester raw materials, with significantly increased price volatility and a downward - shifted processing fee center. The market can be divided into three stages: In the first stage, weak oil prices and weak demand led to a downward trend in the polyester industry chain. Bottle chip processing fees first increased and then decreased. In the second stage, the adjustment of the US reciprocal tariff policy caused pulse - like fluctuations in the polyester industry chain prices. Bottle chip processing fees were passively expanded and then quickly weakened. In the third stage, geopolitical risks and domestic PX device load reduction pushed up polyester industry chain prices. The planned 20% production cut in July by bottle chip manufacturers was temporarily restricted by the strong raw materials [13][14] 2. Supply: Periodic Characteristics under Excess Capacity 2.1 Expansion Cycle Nearing Completion, Capacity Growth Rate Slowing - After high - speed capacity growth in 2023 - 2024, the capacity expansion speed of bottle chips slowed down in 2025. In H1, 125 tons/year of new capacity was added. It is expected that the new capacity in H2 will be about 67 tons/year, and the annual new capacity may reach 192 tons/year. The capacity growth rate in 2025 may drop to around 9.4% [21] 2.2 Significantly Increased Supply Elasticity - From January to May 2025, the total bottle chip production was 6.945 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.6%. In Q1, the industry's operating rate was at a historically low level, and production increased moderately. After entering 2025, due to low processing fees and inventory pressure, there were more device shutdowns. In Q2, as the peak demand season approached, the operating rate quickly rose to over 90%. The supply elasticity of bottle chips increased significantly this year, with greater fluctuations in the operating rate [25][27] 2.3 From Price War to Joint Production Cut - Since May, with the increase in bottle chip production, social and factory inventory pressures have increased. In mid - June, the bottle chip industry reached a 20% production cut decision. If the production cut is implemented, it will temporarily relieve the industry's supply pressure in Q3, but there may be a cycle between joint production cuts and price wars in the future [35] 3. Domestic Demand: Growth Falls Short of Expectations, Maintaining Low - speed Growth - In H1, the soft drink industry's demand grew moderately with a slowdown in growth rate. From January to May, soft drink production increased by 3.0% year - on - year, and beverage retail sales increased by 0.2%. The high - base effect, less policy stimulus, and lightweight packaging initiatives in the beverage industry affected bottle chip demand. In the edible oil and sheet material fields, the growth rate also slowed down. It is expected that the annual domestic demand growth rate of bottle chips will fall short of expectations and may return to the 3% - 5% low - growth range [38][41][54] 4. Exports: Strong Momentum, with a Slight Slowdown in Growth Rate Expected in H2 - In H1 2025, bottle chip exports maintained a high - speed growth, with a 21.5% year - on - year increase from January to May. Although there are trade frictions, their impact on the overall export pattern is limited. It is expected that the annual export volume of bottle chips will exceed 6.5 million tons, but the growth rate may slightly decline in H2 due to the high - base effect, with the annual growth rate likely to be in the 12% - 15% range [56][65] 5. Investment Suggestions - Fundamentally, the bottle chip industry maintains a loose supply - demand pattern. Strategically, industry profits are likely to remain sluggish, and the processing fee will continue to oscillate at a low level. There are opportunities for operation in the 300 - 500 yuan/ton range of the disk processing fee [74][75]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc: Bearish [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of the year, the supply is expected to continue to be released, but there may be disruptions. The demand side is likely to face pressure, and the traditional peak season may see a temporary improvement. The center of Shanghai Zinc is expected to decline both year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter. The zinc fundamentals may remain weak, suppressing the upside space of zinc prices, but certain factors will limit the downside range [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In H1 2025, zinc prices mainly showed a step - by - step downward trend. The decline of Shanghai Zinc main contract exceeded 13%, and that of LME Zinc main contract exceeded 9%. In the second half of the year, questions remain about the operation of the mining and smelting cycle, the expected change in social inventory, and trading opportunities for zinc ingots [15]. 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Mine End: Temporary Mine Looseness Confirmed, Still Need to Be Vigilant Against Disturbances - In H1 2025, overseas mines produced relatively smoothly, while domestic mines slightly underperformed expectations. The annual overseas mine increment is slightly revised down from 430,000 to 380,000 tons, and the domestic zinc mine increment is revised down from 80,000 to 30,000 tons. In the second half of the year, the mine looseness cycle will continue, but the probability of overseas zinc mine disturbances may increase, and domestic zinc mines may consume raw materials but should not be in short supply [18][27][35][46]. 3.2.2 Smelting End: The Pattern of East - Rising and West - Falling May Intensify - From January to April 2025, global refined zinc production decreased year - on - year, while China's production increased slightly. Overseas smelters are restricted by the record - low Benchmark and have started to cut production, while domestic smelting capacity is gradually being released. In the second half of the year, overseas zinc smelters may continue to cut capacity actively, and the space for internal - external positive spreads may be larger than expected. The upward trend of zinc concentrate TC may have setbacks, and smelter profits may be under pressure [48][52][66]. 3.3 Demand Side 3.3.1 Initial - Stage Demand: Obvious Sector Differentiation, Marginal Weakening of Restocking Momentum - In H1 2025, the overall initial - stage downstream start - up increased year - on - year. After the Spring Festival, the start - up was weak, and then improved with the recovery of terminal demand and the fermentation of the export - rush effect. After June, downstream orders gradually weakened. The restocking of downstream raw materials may be limited in the future [75][80]. 3.3.2 Infrastructure Demand in the Peak Season May Improve Year - on - Year, and the Construction Sector Will Continue to Drag - In H1 2025, infrastructure support was relatively stable. The issuance of new special bonds was basically in line with the plan, and the debt - replacement bonds were issued in advance. The actual operation of infrastructure projects showed that the investment growth rate increased year - on - year but decreased quarter - on - quarter. The construction sector may continue to drag down zinc demand [88][91][98]. 3.3.3 The Growth Rate of Durable Consumer Goods Demand Will Slow Down Both Year - on - Year and Quarter - on - Quarter in the Second Half of the Year - In H1 2025, the automobile and home appliance markets grew steadily under the influence of policies and the export - rush effect. In the second half of the year, the growth rate may slow down due to factors such as the weakening of domestic and external demand [101][109]. 3.3.4 Export Demand: Likely to Face Pressure - Overseas demand is expected to recover, but there may be regional differentiation. The export of initial - stage processed products increased significantly in H1 2025, but in the second half of the year, exports may face pressure due to factors such as anti - dumping and the end of the export - rush effect [117][120][122]. 3.4 Inventory Side - In H1 2025, LME inventory generally decreased, and domestic social inventory was at a historically low level. In the second half of the year, social inventory may gradually increase in the first half of Q3 but is limited by factors such as alloying, downstream restocking, and direct factory - to - customer delivery, and may remain at a relatively low level [132][136]. 3.5 Mining - Smelting Balance and Zinc Price Outlook - The mining - smelting cycle can be divided into two stages. Currently, stage one has not fully ended, and it is unlikely to pre - trade stage two. Zinc prices may be suppressed by weak fundamentals but limited in the downside range by certain factors. Shanghai Zinc may show short - term pulse - type declines during the long - term downward trend [139][140]. 3.6 Investment Suggestions - In the second half of the year, the supply is expected to be released, but there may be disruptions. The demand side is likely to face pressure. The reference range for Shanghai Zinc is [19,900, 23,000], and that for LME Zinc is [2,350, 2,750]. In terms of strategies, it is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities on rallies, and for the industrial side, selling hedging is appropriate. Pay attention to positive spreads in the long - term for monthly spreads and mid - term internal - external positive spreads when the structure is suitable [144][146].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's commodity options market regained growth momentum in H1 2025, with cumulative trading volume reaching 595 million lots as of June 15, a significant year-on-year increase of 49% [1][14]. - Macroeconomic and market sentiment elevated the volatility of commodities, with historical and implied volatility showing distinct changes in different sectors [2][37]. - In H2 2025, uncertainties remain in tariff policies and the number and timing of Fed rate cuts. Different option strategies are recommended for various types of commodities [3]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025H1 Commodity Options Market Transaction Overview - The pace of new product launches in the commodity options market slowed down. Only one new product was launched in H1 2025, and several other products are expected to be launched this year [11]. - The market regained growth momentum, with daily average trading volume in each month of 2025 exceeding that of the same period in 2024. Most option varieties saw an increase in trading volume [14][18]. - The over - the - counter (OTC) commodity options market remained at the same level as last year, with a decline in trading volume and a "growth rate gap" compared to the on - exchange market [22]. 2. Volatility: Macroeconomic and Market Sentiment Elevate Commodity Volatility 2.1 Historical Volatility - Among 51 underlying futures, 18 varieties rose and 33 fell. Gold, tin, and manganese silicon had the largest increases, while alumina, industrial silicon, and glass had the largest decreases [29]. - The resonance in the commodity market was mainly due to changes in US tariff policies. The 20 - day historical volatility of the commodity index rose sharply in April and then declined [35]. 2.2 Implied Volatility - Overall, the implied volatility of crude oil, chemicals, and non - ferrous metals increased, while that of agricultural products decreased. Crude oil, styrene, and LPG had the largest increases, while iron ore, apples, and rapeseed oil had the largest decreases [37]. - Different sectors showed different implied volatility characteristics. For example, precious metals were affected by geopolitical and trade factors, and energy and chemical products were influenced by geopolitical and policy factors [43][45]. 3. PCR Sentiment Indicator - PCR is an important indicator reflecting market sentiment. Different types of PCR have different relationships with the price of the underlying asset [53]. - The PCR of China's commodity options has a certain indicative effect on the price trend of the underlying futures, but investors should consider multiple factors [63]. 4. H2 2025 Outlook and Option Strategy Recommendations 4.1 International Macroeconomic Environment Outlook - In H2 2025, the impact mechanism of tariffs on the commodity market will change. Key factors to watch include tariff negotiations, US fiscal and monetary policies, and geopolitical situations [66]. - Trump's tariff policy aims to reduce the trade deficit, relieve fiscal pressure, and restrict the development of trading partners. The "Big Beautiful Act" may increase the US fiscal deficit [67][71]. - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate unchanged, adjusted its economic forecast, and the future policy path depends on economic data [74]. 4.2 Domestic Macroeconomic Environment Outlook - China's economy showed strong growth resilience in H1 2025, but price drivers were weak. CPI was weak, while core CPI was more resilient, and PPI continued to decline [81]. - Consumption showed resilience but its sustainability is uncertain. The "trade - in" policy boosted consumption in the short term but may lead to demand overdraft [87][88]. - Exports were strong in H1 but may face headwinds in H2 due to uncertainties in international trade [92][94]. - Real estate investment continued to adjust at the bottom, while infrastructure investment remained strong. New policy - based financial tools are expected to support infrastructure investment [96][97]. 4.3 Option Strategy Recommendations for Some Varieties - For gold and crude oil, investors should focus on opportunities in rising and falling volatility, using strategies such as buying straddles or strangles during policy - driven events and selling options after extreme market conditions [99][101]. - For oversupplied varieties such as black building materials and new energy metals, bear spread and synthetic short futures strategies are recommended [103][104]. - For varieties with potential unilateral upward trends such as copper and oils, buying call options for left - hand side layout is recommended, and a combination of selling wide straddles can be used initially to reduce costs [107][109].

日度报告——综合晨报 北约宣布 2035 年前增加军费开支 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-06-26 宏观策略（国债期货） 国务院副总理：我国经济顶住压力保持向好态势 股票上涨很可能是下半年债市面临的一个风险，但股市走强对 于债市的影响是偏短期的。多头可继续持有，关注逢回调买入 策略。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 北约宣布 2035 年前增加军费开支 综 特朗普准备提前任命美联储主席，这会对于市场产生明显的影 响，市场预计降息速度会有所上升，美元短期走弱。 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 晨 国泰君安国际获批可提供虚拟资产交易服务 报 国泰君安国际获批可提供虚拟资产交易服务，带动金融板块大 幅拉升，沪指创年内新高。市场成交大幅放量。高估值下市场 情绪依然火热。 农产品（棉花） 欧盟服装进口：4 月份增速明显下降 对中国进口疲软 据棉花信息网公布的数据显示，处于纺织淡季的 6 月上半月，国 内棉花的商业库存继续快速去化，这在一定程度上增强了市场 对年度后期陈作供应偏紧的担忧。 有色金属（铜） ICSG：4 月全球铜市供应短缺 3.8 万吨 宏观因素短期对铜价仍相对偏支撑，基本面供需两弱对盘面影 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for crude oil is "oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical conflict trading is expected to be a short - term market trend before a substantial supply disruption occurs. Oil prices may maintain a certain risk premium in the third quarter. In the medium - and long - term, the idle capacity to mitigate supply disruption risks is mainly concentrated in OPEC+. The demand side's support for oil prices is expected to be limited. The downward economic growth trend and structural changes in oil consumption restrict the medium - and long - term demand growth space. In the second half of the year, pricing drivers are expected to come more from the supply side. Without geopolitical conflict disturbances, the pattern of stronger supply elasticity will still suppress the rebound space of oil prices. The Brent price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 80 per barrel. If a substantial supply disruption occurs due to geopolitical conflicts, it will bring significant upward risks to oil prices [5][113] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. 1H25 Oil Price Trend Review - In the first half of 2025, the average Brent oil price was around $71 per barrel, a decrease of about 7% compared to the second half of last year. In the second quarter, the implied volatility of oil prices rose significantly twice in April and June. In early April, the US announced a reciprocal tariff policy, and OPEC+ unexpectedly accelerated production growth, causing oil prices to drop nearly $15 per barrel in a short time. Brent twice fell below $60 per barrel, hitting a four - year low. In June, Israel's sudden air strike on Iran led to a sharp rise in oil prices. The SC crude oil futures in Shanghai outperformed Brent due to geopolitical conflicts [17] 2. Geopolitical Conflict Risks Rise and Fall Sharply, Testing Global Supply Stability 2.1. The Iran - Israel Conflict Re - triggers Market Concerns about the Navigation Safety of the "Oil Choke Point" - The Iran - Israel conflict on June 13 led to a sharp rise in geopolitical conflict risks and a significant increase in oil prices. Iran's current oil production and exports are at a high level. Sanctions may affect Iran's supply in the long term, and the US may further upgrade sanctions. The passage interruption risk of the Strait of Hormuz is more likely to cause market panic. The trade flow of crude oil and petroleum products through the Strait of Hormuz accounts for about 27% of the global total. Only a few countries have pipelines to bypass it. Geopolitical conflicts also affect the pricing differences of oil prices in different regions and the crack spread of petroleum products [21][22][25][27][32] 2.2. Venezuela's Supply Declines Marginally, and Russia's Supply Remains Stable - Chevron's operating license in Venezuela expired on May 27. Venezuela's crude oil production and exports have declined. Russia's crude oil exports in the first five months averaged about 3.35 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 250,000 barrels per day. Currently, Russia's supply remains stable [39][42] 3. OPEC+ Production Policy Tends to Maintain Market Share - Eight OPEC+ member countries will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July. OPEC+ production has rebounded since April but is less than the agreed - upon increase target. The main purpose of increasing production is to maintain market share. Most countries have a certain scale of theoretical idle capacity. Kazakhstan's over - production has led to an increased risk of it exiting OPEC+ [44][45][46][51] 4. Non - OPEC+ Supply: US Production Growth Potential is Constrained, and Offshore Production will Contribute the Main Increment 4.1. The Negative Impact of Falling Oil Prices on US Shale Oil Production Growth is Apparent - US crude oil production growth has slowed down. The decline in oil prices has significantly inhibited the capital expenditure willingness of US upstream producers. The number of oil rigs and fracturing equipment has decreased, and the free cash flow of listed shale oil producers has deteriorated. The negative impact of low oil prices on shale oil supply growth has begun to appear [55][61][62][63] 4.2. Conventional Offshore Oilfield Projects are Expected to Contribute Most of the Non - OPEC+ Increment - From now until the end of 2026, global offshore oilfield projects are in a capacity release cycle. Brazil, Guyana, and the US offshore are expected to contribute the main increments. Brazil's production is expected to increase to around 3.9 million barrels per day. Guyana's full - load production is expected to approach 1 million barrels per day. The US Gulf of Mexico's offshore oil production is expected to remain around 1.8 million barrels per day. Canada's future production growth is limited [69][72][75][76] 5. The Expectation of Slowing Economic Growth and Consumption Structure Transformation Restrict the Demand Growth Space 5.1. China's Refinery Operating Rates Continue to Differentiate, and Processing Volume Growth is Weak - China's industrial crude oil processing volume from January to May increased by 0.3% year - on - year. The operating rates of different types of refineries in China are differentiated. The production of gasoline, diesel, and kerosene has decreased, and the proportion of kerosene in exports has increased. China's crude oil imports have increased slightly, and inventories have risen [81][82][86][88] 5.2. Global Crude Oil Inventories Rise, and Refined Oil Inventories Remain at a Low Level - The processing volumes of major global refining regions have shown mixed trends. Global crude oil inventories have risen, with non - OECD countries, especially China, contributing to the increase. Refined oil inventories in Europe and the US are still at a low level. Diesel demand improvement needs to be further verified, and gasoline demand shows a structural change [93][96][98][99] 5.3. Multiple Factors Restrict the Global Demand Outlook - The three major institutions have lowered their forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2025. The long - term structural changes in oil consumption, such as the increase in new energy vehicle penetration and the continuation of the home - office model, restrict the growth of oil demand [106][109] 6. Investment Recommendations - Geopolitical conflict trading is expected to be short - term before a substantial supply disruption. In the third quarter, oil prices may maintain a risk premium. In the second half of the year, pricing is more driven by the supply side. The Brent price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 80 per barrel. A substantial supply disruption due to geopolitical conflicts will bring significant upward risks to oil prices [113]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for styrene is "Oscillating" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pure benzene valuation has shifted from continuous decline to an oscillating phase, and attention should be paid to whether the demand side can create an expected difference. Styrene's supply - demand structure is expected to weaken marginally in stages, with the variable being ethane supply. In the second half of the year, pure benzene's supply - demand is generally balanced, with BZN likely to first rebound and then bottom out again. Styrene's non - integrated profit margin may weaken quarter - on - quarter, and the idea of trading spreads should change from widening at low levels to range - bound operations [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1上半年核心交易逻辑在于纯苯估值压缩 - In the first half of 2025, styrene prices fluctuated. In the first quarter, driven by positive expectations, prices initially rose, but then supply increased and pure benzene demand was over - drawn, causing prices to decline. In the second quarter, styrene's supply - demand was not bad, but pure benzene's valuation continued to decline, and styrene's absolute price mainly followed oil price fluctuations [15][16] 3.2统苯估值压降的趋势何时能够反转? 3.2.1上半年纯苯估值承压下行的成因 - In the first half of 2025, pure benzene supply was abundant due to a significant increase in imports. The high import volume was caused by the weakening of the US Gulf pure benzene structure and the weakening of European chemical demand. Although pure benzene demand was not bad overall, the growth rate of non - styrene downstream demand slowed down, leading to poor seasonal de - stocking and making pure benzene a short - position target [22][24][26] 3.2.2因其生产特性问题,估值压降对纯苯供应挤出的力度相对较弱 - Due to the by - product nature of pure benzene production, the impact of valuation changes on supply is relatively weak. Petroleum benzene supply is stable, and marginal reduction mainly depends on disproportionation load reduction. The supply of hydro - benzene is also difficult to squeeze due to the by - product nature of its raw material, crude benzene. There are still new pure benzene production capacities to be released in the second half of the year [30][35][40] 3.2.3纯苯直接下游正在回归、后续将考验终端承接能力 - The weighted output of pure benzene's direct downstream is expected to increase, which will improve the supply - demand structure marginally. However, the sustainability of the improvement depends on the terminal's ability to absorb the products. Different downstream sectors of pure benzene will show differentiation in the second half of the year, with an estimated weighted demand growth rate of around 5.5% [47][49] 3.2.4纯苯下半年供需预期整体较为平衡,BZN或从持续下行转为震荡运行 - In the second half of the year, pure benzene's supply - demand is generally balanced, with an estimated supply growth rate of around 5.8% - 5.9% and a demand growth rate of around 5.5%. The BZN is expected to shift from continuous decline to an oscillating pattern, with a possible bottom - seeking after a short - term rebound. The lower limit of BZN is expected to be around $90 - 120/ton [54][55] 3.3上半年苯乙烯格局优于纯苯,但也推动部分长停装置回归压制远月预期 3.3.1苯乙烯供应面的压力下半年或继续增加 - In the first half of 2025, styrene supply was high in the first quarter and decreased in the second quarter due to maintenance. In the second half of the year, supply pressure is expected to increase as existing production resumes, long - shut - down plants restart, and new capacities are put into operation. The potential variable is the supply of ethane [60][61] 3.3.2上半年苯乙烯下游3S增量亮眼,下半年关注家电端贡献是否会边际转弱 - In the first half of 2025, styrene demand grew by about 13%, mainly driven by the growth of ABS and PS. The reasons include the low base in 2024 and the boost from national subsidies and early export rush. In the second half of the year, the contribution of the home appliance sector may weaken due to the possible adjustment of national subsidies and the pressure on home appliance exports. However, the export of intermediate products such as ABS and PS may offset some of the negative impact [67][70][73] 3.3.3地产端再度回归疲态、静待政策加码 - In the first quarter of 2025, the real estate market showed signs of recovery, but in the second quarter, it weakened again. The decline in the completion end of real estate has dragged down styrene demand. The progress of special bond acquisitions of idle land and the optimization of existing policies should be monitored [82][86][90] 3.3.4总结：下半年苯乙烯绝对价格或更多依赖成本端纯苯指引 - In the second half of the year, styrene's supply pressure will increase, and demand growth may slow down to 5% - 8%. The non - integrated profit margin is expected to weaken, and the absolute price of styrene is likely to be more influenced by pure benzene [94][95] 3.4投资建议 - For pure benzene, consider going long on BZN near the lower limit as the risk - reward ratio may be better. For styrene, change the trading strategy from widening spreads at low levels to range - bound operations, with the EB - BZ spread expected to be in the range of 1200 - 1500 yuan/ton (fluctuating with ethylene and pure benzene prices). Also, pay attention to the resolution of the ethane import issue [3][96][97]

Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "Bearish" [7] Core Views - In the second half of 2025, the stagflation pressure in the US will rise significantly, and the Fed will release liquidity to balance the economy, leading to a weaker US dollar with an expected weakening center around 95 [5][95] - The market volatility in the second half of the year will be significantly higher than that in the first half, so holding safe - haven assets is recommended [5][96] Summary by Directory 1. United States: Severe Economic Pressure and Worsening Treasury Bond Issues 1.1 Labor Market: Structural Resilience Persists, but Medium - term Weakness is Inevitable - In H1 2025, the US labor market's resilience exceeded expectations, with a high - level new employment center, slowing wage growth, and a low unemployment rate [17] - The labor market shows insensitivity to the economic cycle, and in the future, it may enter an "atypical recession" with a linear decline in employment and a possible sudden acceleration of weakness [19] - The Phillips curve may flatten in H2 due to inflation, and the labor market may resist inflation, increasing fluctuations [21][23] 1.2 The Prospect of US Economic Stagflation is Becoming More Apparent - The current decline in US inflation data is a reflection of past economic fundamentals. The potential pressure of reciprocal tariffs will push up inflation expectations, and the long - term inflation pressure will be significant [26] - The US economy's downward pressure is increasing, with the deterioration of the household sector's cash - flow and the long - standing problem of credit tightening [28][30] - The pressure of stagflation is shifting from expectation to reality. The end of the inventory - replenishment phase in the corporate sector and the intensification of reciprocal tariffs will exacerbate stagflation [36][37] 1.3 US Dollar: A Clearly Weakening Currency in H2 - In H1 2025, the market accepted the weak - dollar cycle as the high - growth of the US economy, the basis of the strong - dollar cycle, no longer exists [40] - The US Treasury bond issue will become more prominent in H2. The solution to the deficit problem requires liquidity injection, which will lead to a weaker US dollar [44][46] 2. Eurozone and Japan 2.1 Eurozone: Marginal Improvement in Economic Fundamentals - In 2025, the Eurozone's real GDP growth rebounded, inflation continued to decline, and the manufacturing industry recovered faster than the service industry, driving up the debt levels of residents and enterprises [48][57] - The EU's "Re - arming Europe Plan" with 800 billion euros in spending has changed the economic structure of the Eurozone, increasing manufacturing capacity [57] - The ECB will continue to cut interest rates, and fiscal policy will also be strengthened. The euro's appreciation trend will be enhanced [66] 2.2 Japan: Persistent Appreciation Trend - Japan's economic fundamentals have improved, with consumption driving GDP growth. However, there is a divergence between strong consumption and relatively weak industrial production [69][75] - From a fundamental perspective, the yen has a basis for appreciation, but a strong yen will bring challenges to foreign trade and liquidity. The Bank of Japan needs to make a choice on interest - rate policy [85][86] - Considering the US - Japan trade negotiation and market expectations, the yen is likely to appreciate, but the speed of appreciation needs to be controlled [86] 3. Global Macro: Embracing a More Uncertain Second Half - Trump's policies in 2025 have broken the strong - dollar cycle, and the de - globalization narrative has emerged, with the US Treasury bond issue coming to the fore [87] - The extreme and inconsistent policies are due to populism, which exposes the fragility of the US economy and leads to stagflation [87] - Geopolitical risks will rise in H2, which will have a short - term positive impact on the US dollar but a long - term negative impact. The US dollar will continue to weaken [91][92] 4. Investment Recommendations 4.1 The Weak - dollar Trend is Obvious - In H2 2025, the US stagflation pressure will rise, and the Fed will release liquidity, leading to a weaker US dollar with a center around 95 [5][95] 4.2 Continued Recommendation of Safe - haven Assets - In H2, market contradictions and conflicts will accelerate, increasing volatility. Holding safe - haven assets is recommended [5][96]