周度报告-黄金 市场风险偏好回升，黄金承压下挫 | [Table_Rank] 走势评级： | 黄金：看跌 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 6 | 月 | 29 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★市场综述： 伦敦金跌 2.8%至 3274 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率 4.28%，通胀 预期 2.3%，实际利率降至 1.97%，美元指数跌 1.32%至 97.4，标普 500 指数涨 3.44%，离岸人民币小幅升值，内外价差窄幅波动。 金价回调，一方面是地缘政治风险降温，美国打击伊朗核设施后 加快了伊朗和以色列的停火进程，美国没有朝着深陷战争泥潭的 方向发展，伊朗的回应也非常克制，原油价格基本回吐涨幅，减 少了美国通胀上行风险。一方面是美国经济尚未衰退，美联储维 持按兵不动暂停降息的状态，市场缺乏增量利多，鲍威尔在国会 就半年度货币政策报告作证词，表态鹰派，关税带来的不确定性 和通胀上行风险导致美联储对降息较为谨慎，同时美联储内部的 分歧也在增加，沃勒和鲍曼先后表态支持最快 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for lithium carbonate is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (06/23 - 06/27), lithium salt prices rebounded strongly. The closing price of LC2507 increased by 5.7% week - on - week to 63,200 yuan/ton, and LC2509 increased by 7.5% to 63,300 yuan/ton. The closing price of the near - month contract of Liyang Zhonglian Gold lithium carbonate increased by 3.7% to 61,000 yuan/ton. The price of lithium hydroxide continued to be weak [2][11]. - The rebound of lithium carbonate futures is mainly due to the actual demand being significantly stronger than the previous market expectations. After entering July, the market can confirm the actual demand and downstream procurement rhythm through various channels. In the short term, lithium prices are expected to be oscillating and strengthening [3][12][13]. - For unilateral strategies, it is recommended to temporarily avoid short positions or move them to LC2511, and pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks. For arbitrage, pay attention to the positive spread opportunity between LC2509 - LC2511 [3][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Demand Expectation Difference Drives the Rebound of the Market, Pay Attention to Downstream Procurement Rhythm - Lithium salt prices rebounded last week. The price of lithium hydroxide was weak, the electric - industrial price difference remained flat, and the price discount of battery - grade lithium hydroxide to battery - grade lithium carbonate widened [2][11][12]. - The rebound of lithium carbonate futures is due to the demand being stronger than expected. The actual production schedule of the cell link in July is increasing month - on - month, and the orders in the cathode link also confirm the demand. The low - level heavy position due to previous pessimistic expectations amplifies the upward price elasticity [3][12]. - On the supply side, the increase in domestic lithium carbonate production due to the resumption of some subcontractors in July is roughly offset by the decline in shipments from Chile and Argentina, with limited marginal changes. The core driver of the market lies in the demand side [3][13]. 3.2 Week - on - Week Review of Industry News - Zangge Mining's Mami Cuo project obtained project approval. The project's estimated total investment is 4.537 billion yuan [15]. - From January to April 2025, China's lithium - ion battery industry maintained growth. The total output exceeded 473 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 68%. The export volume reached 155.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 25% [15]. - Ganfeng's first shipment of lithium concentrate from Mali set sail and is expected to arrive at Chinese ports in early August [16]. - Zhongkuang Resources plans to invest 121 million yuan to upgrade the production line to an annual output of 30,000 tons of high - purity lithium salt. After the project is completed, the company's total battery - grade lithium salt production capacity will reach 71,000 tons per year [16]. 3.3 Monitoring of Key High - Frequency Data in the Industrial Chain 3.3.1 Resource End: The Spot Price of Lithium Concentrate Rebounded - The spot price of lithium concentrate rebounded, but specific data is not detailed in the text [18]. 3.3.2 Lithium Salt: The Market Rebounded from a Low Level - The prices of lithium carbonate futures and some spot prices increased. For example, the closing price of the LC2507 contract increased by 5.7% week - on - week, and the LC2509 contract increased by 7.5% [12]. 3.3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Quotes Slightly Rebounded - The prices of some downstream intermediate products such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials showed a slight upward trend [12]. 3.3.4 Terminal: The Penetration Rate of New Energy Vehicles in China Rebounded in May - Although there are corresponding charts in the text, specific data on the rebound of the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in May is not described in detail [39].

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 工业硅大厂突发减产，光伏再提反内卷 根据百川盈孚，本周新疆、内蒙、宁夏分别减产 25、3、1 台，四川增开 1 台。周产量 7.49 万吨，环比-2.22%。SMM 工业 硅社会库存环比-1.7 万吨，样本工厂库存环比-0.23 万吨。新疆 大厂突发减产。部分伊犁小厂在政府补贴下有所增产。四川、 云南预期丰水期开工仍将有小幅增加。大厂生产计划将对工业 硅基本面产生较大影响。若大厂维持 48 台开炉，则工业硅单 月或去库 6 万吨。但若大厂恢复东部基地满产，则工业硅或单 月累库 3 万吨。大厂减产时间仍不明确，关注后续进展。 ★多晶硅 有 色 金 属 现货本周成交低迷。市场传言多家企业多个基地新增复产计 划，我们暂仅考虑已复产企业的生产情况，预期 7 月排产 10.7 万吨。此水平的复产也足以带动多晶硅进入单月过剩。根据 SMM，截至 6 月 26 日，中国多晶硅厂库存 27 万吨，环比+0.8 万吨。下游硅片厂对硅料压价态度明显，在硅料龙头企业联合 减产之前，预计硅料价格仍将继续下跌。但近日政策端变动较 大，周末人民日报发文再度强调"反内卷"，后续关注政策端 变化。 [★Ta工bl业 ...

周度报告-外汇期货 美国 PCE 超预期。 d[Table_Title] 美国 PCE 超预期，美元走弱 [★Ta本bl周e_全Su球mm市a场ry]概述 市场风险偏好回升，股市多数上涨，债券收益率涨跌互现，美 债收益率降至 4.27%。美元指数跌 1.32%至 97.4，非美货币多数 升值，离岸人民币涨 0.09%，欧元涨 1.67%，英镑涨 1.92%，日 元涨 0.99%，瑞郎涨 2.3%，澳元、卢比、新西兰元、比索涨超 1%，韩元、兰特、林吉特、泰铢等收涨。金价跌 2.8%至 3274 美 元/盎司，VIX 指数降至 16.3，现货商品指数收涨，布油跌 11.7%至 69 美元/桶。 外 ★市场交易逻辑 汇 期 货 美国对伊朗核设施完成打击后立刻抽身，没有向着深陷中东战 争泥潭的方向发展，反而加快了伊朗和以色列停火的进程，市 场避险情绪减弱，原油价格回吐涨幅也降低了美国的通胀风 险。美联储主席鲍威尔在国会就货币政策半年度报告作证词， 表态维持鹰派基调，短期在经济尚未衰退的情况下，美联储降 息意愿不强，目前基准预期是 9 月降息，美联储内部分歧加 大，理事沃勒、鲍曼的讲话中表示 7 月可能便会降息，但博 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for government bonds is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is expected to perform stronger next week as PMI data is predicted to weaken marginally and liquidity at the beginning of the quarter is expected to loosen, with institutional willingness turning more active. However, the bullish trend of the bond market may not be smooth, as there is a lack of substantial incremental positive factors, and disturbances such as a strong stock market may occur from time to time [2][14] - Entering Q3, the pressure on the fundamental situation will increase, and the expectation of loose liquidity is difficult to be falsified. It is expected that the bond market will gradually strengthen. But the pace of the bond market's strengthening may be bumpy due to factors such as the bond market's full awareness of the fundamental environment, high bond market valuations, uncertainty about the implementation of loose policies by the central bank, and the interference of the stock market [15] - It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of steepening the yield curve, as the short - end varieties may still outperform the long - end ones [16] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From June 23 - 29, government bond futures adjusted slightly, and the yield curve steepened. Various factors such as marginal tightening of funds, strong stock market performance, and institutional profit - taking intentions affected the daily performance of government bond futures. As of June 27, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bond futures were 102.546, 102.265, 109.070, and 120.940 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.020, +0.010, - 0.070, and - 0.320 yuan compared to last weekend [13] 3.1.2 Next Week's View - The bond market is expected to be stronger than this week, but the bullish trend may not be smooth. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of steepening the yield curve, and also suggests strategies such as long - position holding, mid - line long - position layout on dips, and paying attention to positive arbitrage opportunities in government bond futures [2][14][16] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 177 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 8676.40 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 7806.52 billion yuan. The net financing amount of local government bonds increased, while that of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased [22] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Government bond yields showed a divergent trend. As of June 27, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bonds were 1.35%, 1.51%, 1.65%, and 1.85% respectively, with changes of - 1.50, +0.32, +0.46, and +1.05 bp compared to last weekend. The spreads of 10Y - 1Y, 10Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 10Y all widened [28] 3.3 Government Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Government bond futures adjusted slightly, and the yield curve steepened. As of June 27, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bond futures changed compared to last weekend. The trading volumes and open interests of different - maturity government bond futures also had corresponding changes [37][40] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - Positive arbitrage opportunities were not obvious this week. The funds were generally balanced and loose, the futures basis generally fluctuated within a narrow range, and the IRR of the CTD bonds of each main contract was around 1.8%. There were relatively few short - term IRR strategies [44] 3.3.3 Inter - delivery and Inter - variety Spreads - As of June 27, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bond futures contracts 2509 - 2512 had corresponding changes compared to last weekend [47] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Funding Situation - This week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 12672 billion yuan. As of June 27, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week increased compared to last weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased, and the overnight proportion was slightly lower than the previous week [53][56][58] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index weakened, and the yield of 10Y US Treasury bonds declined. As of June 27, the US dollar index fell 1.52% to 97.2612 compared to last weekend, and the yield of 10Y US Treasury bonds dropped 9BP to 4.29%. The Sino - US 10Y Treasury bond yield spread was inverted by 264.5BP. The easing of the Middle East conflict and the divergence of Fed officials' statements affected the market [64] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices showed mixed performance, and agricultural product prices generally declined. As of June 27, the South China Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index changed compared to last weekend, and the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits also had corresponding changes [68] 3.7 Investment Suggestions - It is recommended to take a bullish approach. Specific strategies include continuing to hold long positions, considering mid - line long - position layout on dips, moderately paying attention to positive arbitrage opportunities in government bond futures, and continuing to hold the strategy of steepening the yield curve (such as the 2TS - T strategy) [17][18][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for liquefied petroleum gas is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - If geopolitical risks do not reach an extreme scenario, the fundamental situation of LPG will loosen marginally in the second half of this year. The supply side will have greater adjustment flexibility driven by the expansion of terminals in the U.S. Gulf and the increase in OPEC+ production, while propane chemical demand will be negatively impacted by the Sino - U.S. tariff game. If the Sino - U.S. tariffs do not ease unexpectedly, the FEI - CP central level is expected to remain weak in the second half of the year. The domestic market will be more affected by the C4 end and warrant trading, and the PG/SC gas - oil ratio is expected to remain weak [4][107] 3. Summary by Table of Contents 3.1 1H25 Market Review - In Q1, both domestic and international contracts oscillated within a range. The fundamental contradictions of LPG itself changed relatively little. The rise of LPG was weaker than that of crude oil. In mid - February, the game around the basis of domestic near - month contracts increased significantly. After the oil price dropped, the basis supported the 03 contract and suppressed the long - term sentiment. From March to April, a positive spread trend emerged instead of the reverse spread trend in previous years. In March, due to the reduction of supply caused by increased maintenance of domestic liquefied gas plants and strong chemical demand, the near - month spreads of domestic and international markets showed a positive spread trend [17] - In Q2, the market volatility increased significantly, and the trading logics of domestic and international markets diverged. The change in Sino - U.S. tariff policy was the main factor affecting international prices. After the U.S. imposed a 34% tariff on China on April 4, the FEI price dropped sharply in early April. After the unexpected easing of Sino - U.S. tariffs on May 12, the FEI/CP spread strengthened, but the domestic market was suppressed by the weak C4 demand and a large number of warrants and fell smoothly [18] - In June, the escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict brought a new round of shocks. The FEI/CP spread soared, and the domestic market's spread continued to weaken [19] 3.2 Supply in the Second Half of the Year 3.2.1 United States - In the first half of the year, the U.S. C3 production increased, with the average net C3 production in Q1 at 265 million barrels per day and further rising to 283 million barrels per day by mid - June. In the second half of the year, only one fractionation unit is planned to be put into operation in Q3, and the marginal increase in production is limited. It is expected that the C3 production will only increase slightly in Q3 and decline marginally in Q4 [26][27] - From January to May, the U.S. LPG export volume increased by 5% year - on - year. The export capacity will expand in the second half of the year, with ETP and Targa's export capacities expected to increase by 3.85 million and 0.6 million tons per year respectively. However, the actual export volume will be affected by factors such as Northeast Asian demand, Sino - U.S. tariff game, and potential substitution demand due to the Middle East conflict. In addition, the hurricane season from June to November may impact the export rhythm [32][35][37] 3.2.2 Middle East - In the first half of the year, the Middle East's LPG export volume increased by 3.3% year - on - year. The supply increment mainly came from countries other than Saudi Arabia. In the second half of the year, the supply increment space is relatively limited. Although there are some planned projects, the actual increment that can be realized this year is likely to be small. If OPEC+ relaxes oil production cuts as planned, the potential export increment in the Middle East is about 150,000 tons per month. However, if the geopolitical conflict persists, the supply may face significant tightening risks [43][44][45] 3.3 Demand in the Second Half of the Year 3.3.1 Combustion Demand - India's LPG demand was strong in the first half of the year, with imports increasing by 5.2% year - on - year from January to May. It is expected that the import and demand growth rates in the second half of the year will be similar to those in the first half, with an annual import growth rate of about 5%. Other Asian regions' combustion demand showed no bright spots in the first half of the year. Attention should be paid to Japan's summer inventory - building progress [61][62] 3.3.2 Chemical Demand - In the cracking end, the demand in the first half of the year was weak due to the poor relative economy of LPG. It is expected that the cracking demand in the second half of the year will be weaker than that in the first half, depending on the change in the relative economy of FEI - MOPJ. Regarding the PDH end, although the PDH device profit improved in Q1, it was under pressure in Q2 due to tariff policies. In the second half of the year, the profit repair space is limited, and the operating rate is likely to decline marginally [69][73][74] 3.4 China's LPG Supply - Demand Balance - In the first half of the year, the domestic production of LPG decreased slightly year - on - year. The supply of domestic gas is expected to increase marginally in the second half of the year, mainly supported by the new CDU units in Zhenhai and Daxie. The domestic demand side is facing pressure, with the combustion demand weakening and the C4 chemical route performing weakly. Overall, if the current Sino - U.S. tariff scenario and geopolitical conflict intensity remain unchanged, the supply - demand balance in China is expected to be looser in the second half of the year [82][84][85] 3.5 Transportation Cost - If the geopolitical conflict remains at the current intensity, the impact on transportation costs in the second half of the year is limited. The freight rate on the U.S. Gulf - Far East route is expected to be relatively strong in the third quarter, mainly supported by factors such as geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East, the hurricane season in the Atlantic, and potential congestion in the Panama Canal. However, the freight rate may weaken in the fourth quarter due to the planned launch of new ships [97][98] 3.6 Investment Suggestion - If geopolitical risks do not reach an extreme scenario, the fundamental situation of LPG will loosen marginally in the second half of the year. If the Sino - U.S. tariffs do not ease unexpectedly, it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities. The domestic market will be affected by the C4 end and warrant trading, and the PG/SC gas - oil ratio is expected to remain weak [107]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - fiber: Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - The short - fiber supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and its situation is relatively healthy among polyester products. However, the optimistic market expectations at the beginning of the year are unlikely to be fulfilled, and it will take time for the industry profit to recover. It is recommended to go long on the processing fee when it is low, but also set a timely profit - taking target [5][76] Summary by Directory 1. Fluctuation of Short - fiber Prices and Processing Fees in the First Half of 2025 - Short - fiber prices closely followed polyester raw materials in H1 2025, with increased volatility and a lower processing - fee center. The price trend can be divided into three stages: in the first stage, weak oil prices and demand led to a decline in polyester industry chain prices and weakening processing fees; in the second stage, the US tariff policy caused price fluctuations, and the processing fee first expanded passively and then weakened; in the third stage, geopolitical risks and PX plant production cuts pushed up prices, and the strong raw materials restricted the processing - fee recovery [15][16] 2. Supply: Factory Cyclical Production Cuts Limit Actual Output Growth Potential 2.1 New Capacity Addition is Small, and Existing Device Load Increases Significantly - From 2024 - 2025, new short - fiber capacity addition was small, but the load of existing devices increased significantly. In 2025, the total new capacity was 320,000 tons/year, with a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The short - fiber capacity growth rate is lower among polyester products, and the supply - demand pattern is relatively healthy. The short - fiber output from January to May 2025 increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the current output already reflects the impact of new capacity. There are no new capacity addition plans in H2, and factory cyclical production cuts will limit output growth [2][21][27] 2.2 Factory Joint Production Cuts Provide Temporary Support for Processing - Fee Recovery - Since last year, the industry's self - regulatory behavior of adjusting the operating rate based on the processing fee has been effective. In March and June 2025, short - fiber factories reached production - cut agreements. The production - cut plan in June was more aggressive. The current physical inventory of short - fiber factories is at a healthy level, and the production - cut news may boost market confidence and support the processing - fee recovery in the short term [30] 3. Domestic Demand: Terminal Demand Remains Resilient, and the Polyester Yarn Link is the Bottleneck 3.1 Consumption Policies are Effective, and Domestic Textile and Apparel Demand is Expected to Maintain Moderate Growth - In 2025, the domestic consumer market recovered. From January to May, the cumulative growth of total retail sales of consumer goods was 5.0%, and the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles increased by 3.3% year - on - year. With the implementation of consumption - boosting policies in H2, the domestic textile and apparel market is expected to continue to rise steadily [32] 3.2 The Window Period for "Grabbing Exports" is Coming to an End, and Overseas Orders will be the Core Variable in H2 - From January to May 2025, textile and apparel exports increased by 1.0% year - on - year. The US is still the largest single market for China's textile and apparel exports, but its share is declining. The "grabbing export" phenomenon may have overdrafted the export demand to the US in H2. However, China's exports to some countries such as Europe and ASEAN maintained high growth rates, and the export demand in H2 may decline month - on - month but still maintain some resilience [41][43][44] 3.3 The Profit of the Textile and Apparel Industry Declines, and the Weaving Operating Rate is Lower than the Same Period Last Year - The inventory pressure of textile and apparel finished products is increasing, the industry profit rate is declining, and the production enthusiasm is suppressed. The weaving operating rate has a downward trend and is more than 10% lower than the same period last year [53] 3.4 Downstream Yarn Mills Have High Finished - Product Inventory Pressure and Stable Raw - Material Procurement - The supply - demand situation of the polyester yarn market this year is weaker than last year, with a lower operating rate, high finished - product inventory, and a low processing fee. Yarn mills mainly make small - order and just - in - time purchases due to high inventory and cash - flow losses, which limits the short - fiber demand [62] 4. Exports: Upward Shift of Industry Chain Exports, Strong Growth in Short - fiber Exports - From January to May 2025, the cumulative export volume of uncombed polyester staple fibers was 668,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.6%. The reasons for the high - speed growth are the cost advantage and the upward shift of industry chain exports. It is estimated that the export increment in the first five months absorbed about 72.2% of the new short - fiber output, relieving the sales pressure [67][69] 5. Investment Suggestions - Fundamentally, short - fiber supply and demand are relatively balanced. It is recommended to go long on the processing fee when it is near the factory's cash - flow cost, as it has a good risk - return ratio, but also set a timely profit - taking target [5][76]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - A - shares are oscillating narrowly at a high level, with hotspots rapidly rotating. The index is approaching the predicted neutral point, and market sentiment is exuberant [14]. - The US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term due to the downward - revised Q1 GDP and increased economic downward pressure [18]. - The prices of various commodities show different trends. For example, steel prices are expected to continue oscillating in the short - term, and copper prices may be supported by macro factors and show a slightly stronger oscillating trend [4][43]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed's Collins believes it may be too early to cut interest rates in July, and the baseline outlook is to resume rate cuts later this year. Gold lacks upward momentum, and there is a risk of correction [10][11]. - Investment advice: Gold prices are expected to be weak in the short - term, and investors should be aware of correction risks [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The State Council issued a plan to improve the social credit repair system, and the third batch of consumer trade - in funds will be released in July [13][14]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to allocate assets evenly [15]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump hopes Congress can pass the tax reform bill before July 4. The US Q1 GDP was downward - revised, and the dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term [16][18]. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short - term [19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - US durable goods orders in May increased by 16.4% month - on - month, but the Q1 GDP was downward - revised. Market sentiment is high, but there are still concerns about economic data and tariff negotiations [20][21]. - Investment advice: It is not recommended to chase the high as the US stock market has factored in a lot of optimistic expectations [22][23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Argentine soybean sales may stagnate in July due to the expiration of the tax - cut policy. US soybean export sales are better than expected. Domestic soybean meal prices have fallen, and trading volume is average [24][26]. - Investment advice: Futures prices are expected to remain range - bound. Focus on US soybean growing area weather and Sino - US relations [26]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysian palm oil production increased by 3.83% from June 1 - 25. The oil market is oscillating and waiting for new data [27]. - Investment advice: The oil market is expected to continue oscillating in the short - term. It is recommended to operate within the range and not to short when the bottom support is strong [27]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Pakistan approved the import of 500,000 tons of sugar. Brazilian port sugar waiting to be shipped decreased. Brazil will increase the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from August 1, which may support sugar prices [28][31]. - Investment advice: The external sugar market is weakly consolidating. Zhengzhou sugar may have limited rebound space and may fall after the July contract is delivered [32]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products increased slightly this week, but rebar inventory decreased slightly. Steel prices are expected to continue oscillating in the short - term [33][34]. - Investment advice: Steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to use a hedging strategy when the price rebounds [35]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn and corn starch consumption in starch sugar products increased slightly this week. The opening rate of starch enterprises decreased slightly, and inventory decreased steadily. The CS09 - C09 spread decreased [36]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see as the factors affecting the CS - C spread are complex [36]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn consumption by deep - processing enterprises increased, and inventory decreased slightly. Spot prices are stable with an upward trend, while futures are weak [37][39]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see for old - crop contracts. Consider shorting the November and January contracts when the new - crop situation is clearer [39]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The metal market shows a cautiously bullish sentiment. India plans to take measures to deal with copper supply risks. Macro factors support copper prices in the short - term, and inventory changes should be focused on [39][43]. - Investment advice: Copper prices may show a slightly stronger oscillating trend in the short - term. Adopt a bullish strategy. Wait patiently for arbitrage opportunities [43]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Longi plans to build a 1.4GW BC component factory in Indonesia. The polysilicon market is still under pressure, with falling prices and limited production cuts [44][45]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to focus on the PS08 - 09 positive spread opportunity due to high unilateral investment risks [46]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased this week. There are rumors of production cuts and restarts. The price increase may face resistance [47][48]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities when the price of industrial silicon rebounds [48]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc is in a contango. A zinc smelter in Peru went on strike, and domestic zinc inventory increased slightly. Zinc prices may oscillate strongly in the short - term but face an oversupply situation in the medium - term [49][51]. - Investment advice: Reduce or stop losses on previous short positions in the short - term. Look for short - selling opportunities after the macro - sentiment fades. Consider positive spread arbitrage [52]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Ganfeng's first shipment of lithium concentrate from Mali set sail. The low price attracts some pre - season stocking, and there may be a short - term price rebound [53][54]. - Investment advice: Avoid short positions. Consider the 9 - 11 positive spread opportunity [54]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory decreased slightly. The nickel market is facing an oversupply situation, and nickel prices may be affected by the price of nickel ore [55]. - Investment advice: The short - term up - and - down profit - loss ratios of nickel prices are not good. Consider short - selling when the premium of nickel ore drops significantly [56]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The weekly commercial volume of LPG in China decreased, and inventory increased. The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [57][58]. - Investment advice: Wait and see the demand after the increase in the release of civil LPG in East China [59]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The National Energy Administration issued 215 million green certificates in May. The demand for green certificates is increasing, and they are evolving into financial assets [60]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see [61]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong was stable. Supply is stable, and demand is average. The downward space of the futures price is limited [62]. - Investment advice: The spot price of caustic soda is gradually weakening, but the downward space of the futures price is limited [62]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The decline of imported wood pulp prices slowed down, and the demand from downstream paper mills was weak [63][64]. - Investment advice: The pulp market is expected to oscillate as the fundamentals remain weak [64]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder was narrowly adjusted, and the futures price oscillated. The trading volume was low [65]. - Investment advice: The PVC market is expected to oscillate as the fundamentals change little in the short - term [66]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The inventory of urea enterprises decreased slightly. The domestic supply - demand situation is expected to weaken, but the export quota may affect the market [67][69]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to potential policy changes regarding export quotas [69]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The downstream start - up rate of PTA was slightly adjusted. Supply decreased slightly this week and is expected to increase in the medium - term. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [70][71]. - Investment advice: The PTA price is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short - term [72]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle chip factories were mostly stable with some slight decreases. The industry plans to cut production in July, which may relieve supply pressure [73][76]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity to expand the processing margin of bottle chips when the price is low [76].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for lithium carbonate is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cycle of expanding production capacity is not over, and the pressure on the mining end to reduce inventory has marginally eased. The supply of global primary lithium resources in 2025 is expected to reach 1608,000 tons of LCE, a year-on-year increase of 272,000 tons of LCE. The downstream demand growth rate has been slightly revised down, and attention should be paid to the expected difference in apparent demand. The theoretical cost support in 2025 has dropped to 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton, and the cost curve is becoming flatter. It is expected that the operating range of the main lithium carbonate contract in the second half of the year will be 55,000 - 67,000 yuan/ton [2][3][4][5] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In the first half of the year, the unexpectedly high production in the cathode material and cell sectors in January led to an upward revision of the annual demand growth rate, pushing up the price. After the Spring Festival, the over - supply in the salt sector and the negative feedback loop between ore and salt prices dragged down the price. Although some large salt factories started maintenance in April, the supply in the second quarter still increased month - on - month. The cost support moved down due to the decline in the current cost of enterprises, and the market sentiment became more pessimistic [18] 2. The Cycle of Expanding Production Capacity is Not Over, and the Pressure on the Mining End to Reduce Inventory has Marginally Eased 2.1 The Cycle of Expanding Production Capacity at the Resource End is Not Over - The supply of global primary lithium resources in 2025 is expected to be about 1.608 million tons of LCE, a year - on - year increase of 272,000 tons of LCE. The increase mainly comes from the resumption of production at Jiuxiawo and the output of Lagucuo and Daoxian Xiangyuan. Some projects' output has been slightly revised down. China, Africa, Argentina, and Chile have contributed significant year - on - year increments, while Australia's output has slightly decreased. The supply structure has become more diversified, and the risk of supply disruption is controllable [24][27][28] 2.2 The Differentiation between the Growth Rates of the Resource End and the Salt End: How Much Pressure is There on the Mining End to Reduce Inventory? - From January to May, the supply of lithium carbonate in the Chinese market increased by 42% year - on - year, far exceeding the resource end growth rate. The difference is mainly due to inventory changes. Overseas non - integrated miners have stable inventory days. African lithium mines have some inventory pressure, but it is controllable. The inventory in China has been decreasing, and the pressure to further reduce inventory is limited. The supply growth rate of lithium carbonate in the second half of the year is likely to approach the resource end growth rate. The inventory of salt lakes in Chile and Argentina is low, and the shipping data can be used as a leading indicator for imports [36][40][51] 3. The Terminal Growth Rate has been Slightly Revised Down, and Attention Should be Paid to the Expected Difference in Apparent Demand 3.1 The Power Terminal Maintains High Growth, and the Uncertainty of Energy Storage has Marginally Increased - In the power terminal, from January to May, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of new energy vehicles in China, Europe, and the United States were 44%, 27%, and 3% respectively. The growth rate in China may slow down in the second half of the year, but the end - of - year demand is still worth looking forward to. In Europe, the growth rate has exceeded expectations. In the United States, the policy pressure in the second half of the year is limited. The annual growth rate of global new energy vehicle sales is expected to be maintained at 20% - 26%. In the energy storage terminal, the demand expectation is pessimistic. Domestically, the cancellation of mandatory energy storage allocation has increased uncertainty, but the high winning bid volume in the first half of the year supports the demand in the second half. Overseas, the demand for exports to the United States may slow down, but the non - US market is performing well. The global energy storage cell shipments are expected to increase by 30% - 40% year - on - year [58][70][83] 3.2 The Inventory Days of Each Downstream Link Remain Neutral - After two years of inventory reduction, the inventory days of each downstream link have returned to a neutral level. The cathode material sector has maintained a low - inventory strategy, and there is little room for further inventory reduction. The cell sector has also achieved inventory reduction. The new energy vehicle inventory level is neutral, and the inventory pressure of some car companies is a structural problem. There may be trading opportunities due to the expected difference between the off - season and the peak season [84][87][88] 4. How to Understand the Downward Shift of Cost Support? - The updated balance sheet shows that the global lithium resources will have a surplus of 228,000 tons of LCE in 2025. The theoretical cost support in 2025 is 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton, down from the previous range. The cost reduction space of mature Australian mines is limited, while African projects may further reduce costs. The cost curve will become flatter, and the cost support will be marginally enhanced [97][98][102] 5. Investment Suggestions - In the second half of the year, the main lithium carbonate contract is expected to operate in the range of 55,000 - 67,000 yuan/ton. The market is relatively optimistic in the third quarter, and the price may decline at the end of the year. The space for unilateral trading is limited. It is recommended to try long positions at the lower end of the range in early Q3 and short positions at the end of Q3. It is more advisable to focus on the positive spread opportunity of LC2509 - LC2511 [106][107]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coking coal and coke is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the coking coal market, supply over - increased in H1 2025, leading to rapid inventory accumulation and a one - sided price decline. In H2, although demand is resilient, the supply - demand contradiction is hard to ease, and prices will continue to seek a bottom. Policy changes are crucial for supply [2][76]. - The coke market is restricted by over - capacity, and prices mainly follow cost fluctuations. The current inventory is okay, and the fundamentals are healthier than coking coal, but the over - capacity problem persists. The export market is shrinking, but stable daily pig iron production provides some support [3][77]. - In H1 2025, the prices of coking coal and coke dropped rapidly due to intensified supply - demand contradictions and capital factors, reflecting fundamental expectations in advance. In H2, coking coal prices are expected to continue the weak oscillation pattern with limited downside space, and there may be periodic rebounds restricted by warehouse receipt cost pressure. Attention should be paid to coal mine policy adjustments and marginal changes in demand [4][77]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 H1 Market Review - Coking coal prices continued the downward trend from 2024, with a step - by - step decline in the price center. In Q1, it declined slowly, and in Q2, it accelerated. In June, the market oscillated due to tightened safety supervision and inventory pressure. Coke prices followed coking coal prices due to over - capacity, and its fundamentals were relatively healthy with low supply and balanced supply - demand [11][12]. 3.2 Coking Coal: Difficulty in Active Supply Reduction and Continuous Accumulation of Upstream Inventory 3.2.1 Domestic Production with Obvious Year - on - Year Increment - The supply - demand imbalance in the coking coal market in H1 was mainly due to the over - release of supply. From January to April 2025, the national coking coal production increased by 6.12% year - on - year, with Shanxi's output increasing by 13.17%. In Q1, the resumption of production after the Spring Festival was faster than before. In Q2, inventory pressure emerged, and in June, the coal mine operating rate declined due to safety supervision and inventory pressure [23]. 3.2.2 Profit Remains the Key Factor for Imports, and Import Volume Slows Down - In H1 2025, the sharp decline in domestic coking coal prices led to an inverted import profit and a contraction in import volume. By April, the cumulative import volume decreased by 4% year - on - year. Mongolian coal imports decreased year - on - year, and port inventory accumulated. Seaborne coal imports also decreased and are expected to remain low in H2 [40][45]. 3.2.3 Coal Mine Inventory Accumulation - In Q1, the overall inventory was depleted by downstream consumption, but upstream inventory remained high. In Q2, downstream inventory was low, and coal mine inventory accumulated, pushing up the total inventory to a historical high [59]. 3.3 Coke: Low Supply, Lower Cost, but the Over - Capacity Pattern Remains Unchanged 3.3.1 Difficulty in Changing the Over - Capacity Pattern and Low Coking Profits - The decline in coking coal prices in H1 drove down coke prices, but the contraction of coking profits was relatively limited. The coke inventory is okay, and the fundamentals are healthier than coking coal. The coking industry still has an over - capacity problem, and the standardization of the J2604 contract is expected to promote technological transformation [68]. 3.3.2 Low Downstream Inventory and Declining Exports - The coking industry maintained a low operating rate, and the overall coke inventory was healthy. Downstream enterprises are expected to continue the low - inventory strategy in H2. The coke export market shrank, with a 25% year - on - year decline in cumulative exports by May 2025. However, the stable daily pig iron production of about 2.4 million tons in Q2 provided some support for coke demand [70][72]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Summary - In the coking coal market, supply over - increased in H1, leading to inventory accumulation and price decline. In H2, prices will be under pressure, and policy changes are crucial for supply. In the coke market, prices follow cost fluctuations, with over - capacity and a shrinking export market. The stable pig iron production provides some support. Coking coal prices are expected to oscillate weakly in H2, with limited downside space and possible periodic rebounds [76][77].