固定收益 | 证券研究报告 — 点评报告 2025 年 5 月 8 日 相关研究报告 《美债利率上行遇阻》20231029 《如何看待美债利率回落》20231105 《中债收益率曲线已较为平坦》20231112 《如何看待美债长期利率触顶》20231122 《联储表态温和、降息预期高涨》20231214 《"平坦化"存款降息》20231217 《长期利率或将度过快速下行阶段》20231231 《房贷利率仍是长期利率焦点》20240225 《利率债与房地产的均衡分析》20240331 《新旧动能与利率定价》20240407 《美联储能否实现"软着陆"?》20240602 《当前影响利率的财政因素》20240630 《中性利率成为关键》20240922 《如何看中美长债对降息的反应》20240929 《美国经济看点：AI 浪潮与家庭债务》20241103 《特朗普交易：预期与预期之外》20241124 《提前开始关税叫价？》20241207 《低通胀惯性仍是主要矛盾》20250105 《如何看待美国通胀形势》20250119 《DeepSeek，DOGE，贸易摩擦》20250209 《美国的赤字、储蓄率与利率》2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [2][4][6] Core Views - The company's annual report for 2024 and the first quarter report for 2025 show that net profit attributable to the parent company has increased year-on-year, indicating positive growth. The company is actively expanding into new customer segments and application areas, which is expected to drive revenue and profit growth [4][9][10] - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 51.08 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, while the net profit is expected to reach 0.91 billion RMB, reflecting a significant growth of 81.43% [9][10] - The company has diversified its customer base by successfully engaging with major global tech firms such as Dell, Microsoft, and Xiaomi, and is exploring new market opportunities in AI and hardware [9][10] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to reflect a more optimistic outlook, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 2.91 RMB, 3.87 RMB, and 4.79 RMB respectively [6][8] - The projected revenue growth rates for the upcoming years are 13.7% for 2025, 13.8% for 2026, and 13.9% for 2027, indicating a consistent growth trajectory [8][12] - The company’s EBITDA is expected to increase significantly, with projections of 647 million RMB in 2025 and 713 million RMB in 2026 [8][12] Performance Metrics - The company reported a battery sales volume of 51,400 units in 2024, marking an 18.32% increase year-on-year. The revenue from square lithium-ion batteries reached 29.17 billion RMB, up 18.54%, while cylindrical lithium-ion batteries generated 15.98 billion RMB, a 33.30% increase [9][10] - The gross margin for square lithium-ion batteries was 18.42%, while cylindrical lithium-ion batteries had a gross margin of 17.95%, both showing slight declines compared to the previous year [9][10] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a remarkable net profit increase of 903.92% year-on-year, reaching 0.32 billion RMB, with revenue of 12.25 billion RMB, a 23.27% increase [9][11]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 5 月 7 日 稳市场稳预期发布会点评 金融助力稳经济 5 月 7 日，国务院新闻办公室上午 9 时举行新闻发布会。除了落地降准降息 之外，我们认为货币政策宽松主要目标是稳定我国二季度经济向好的趋势， 政策的主要发力方向是促消费、助力科创企业发展和稳定资本市场。 宏观经济 证券分析师：张晓娇 xiaojiao.zhang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300514010002 证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 本次金融政策调整力度大、范围广。我们认为金融政策调整可以从三个 层面理解：一是适度宽松的货币政策如期落地，包括降准 0.5 个百分点、 下调政策利率 0.1 个百分点，以及下调结构型货币政策工具利率 0.25 个 百分点，预计本次宽松将向市场提供长期流动性 1 万亿元，同时带动 LPR 同步下行约 0.1 个百分点，有助于改善金融机构和资本市场流动性；二是 稳定金融市场，包括加大长期资金流入和优化资本 ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 宏观策略评论 2025 年 5 月 7 日 深度理解美国关税战的逻 辑和影响 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观及策略：宏观经济 证券分析师：徐高 (8610)66229055 gao.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519050002 2025 年 4 月 2 日，美国宣布对包括中国在内的 57 个国家和地区在原有关 税基础上，额外加征"对等关税"，以试图压缩美国的贸易逆差。但美国给 出其贸易不平衡的解释，以及由此逻辑而提出的"对等关税"政策，在经济 学上完全站不住脚。过去半个世纪美国长期贸易逆差的主要成因是美元。 在二战后的国际货币体系中，美元是最主要的国际储备货币。这使得美 国获得了向全世界征"铸币税"的权力。美元凭空带给美国的购买力，显著 推升了美国的内需，从而让美国从之前的贸易顺差国变成了布雷顿森林 体系 1971 年解体后的逆差国。但美元在让美国薅全球羊毛的同时，也给 美国带来了产业空心化和社会撕裂两大弊端。 面对全球化带来的挑战，美国的"上策"是放弃美元霸权，推行共同富裕。 但这说起来容易做起来难。美国既 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in net profit for both the 2024 annual report and the 2025 Q1 report, with a notable increase in the anode business and potential for overseas market expansion [4][9] - The forecasted earnings per share for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 0.91, 1.17, and 1.46 RMB respectively, reflecting a positive outlook for the company's performance [6][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 5,581 million RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.72%, and a net profit of 303 million RMB, up 626.56% [9][10] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1,598 million RMB, a 49.92% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 134 million RMB, reflecting a growth of 465.80% [11] Business Development - The anode materials business has seen a significant increase in output, with a total shipment of 225,700 tons in 2024, representing a 55.66% year-on-year growth [9] - The company has successfully developed international clients, including a well-known battery subsidiary of an international automotive company, and is expanding its production capacity in Morocco [9] Valuation Metrics - The adjusted earnings per share forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.91, 1.17, and 1.46 RMB, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 17.1, 13.3, and 10.6 [6][8] - The company’s projected revenue growth rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 23.8%, 20.2%, and 21.5% respectively [8][12]

社会服务 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2025 年 5 月 7 日 强于大市 2025 年五一旅游数据点评 国内文旅市场多点开花，跨境游市场持续高增 五一假期文旅市场持续复苏，国内市场多点开花，跨境游市场同比持续高增 并有望延续优秀表现，维持行业 强于大市 评级。 支撑评级的要点 投资建议 五一假期国内旅游市场持续复苏，跨境游市场在多重利好下同比高增， 并有望延续修复态势。我们重点推荐资源优质、运营强劲、有外延增长 预期的出行链及相关产业链公司：岭南控股、众信旅游、长白山、黄山 旅游、宋城演艺；受益于商旅客流复苏以及疫后市占率提高的连锁酒店 品牌君亭酒店、锦江酒店、首旅酒店；跨境游市场增长有望带动机场免 税的恢复，市内免税新政落地以及离境退税政策升级有望贡献增量，推 荐中国中免、王府井等。 评级面临的主要风险 出行需求复苏不足、宏观经济复苏不及预期。 相关研究报告 《社会服务行业双周报》20250415 《社会服务行业双周报》20250325 《社服与消费视角点评 1-2 月国内宏观数据》 20250321 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 社会服务 证券分析师：李小民 (8621)20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][4][6] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue reaching RMB 1.52 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26.4%, and net profit of RMB 225 million, up 25.1% [4][9] - The launch of the innovative dexterous hand product with 17 degrees of freedom is expected to be a significant growth driver for the company [4][9] - The company is actively building a "1+1+1" vertical collaborative innovation system and a "dual-wheel drive" development model to enhance R&D and market synergy [4][9] Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve net profits of RMB 262 million, RMB 329 million, and RMB 406 million for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of RMB 1.09, RMB 1.37, and RMB 1.69 [6][8] - The revenue forecast for 2025 is RMB 1.85 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 21.5% [8][9] - The EBITDA for 2025 is estimated at RMB 312 million, with a projected EBITDA margin improvement [8][9] Business Development - The company is focusing on the automotive sector, collaborating with major clients like Bosch and BYD to provide advanced automotive components [9] - In the consumer and medical technology sectors, the company is offering competitive solutions in AR&VR, smart home devices, and medical equipment [9] - The company aims to accelerate the commercialization of its next-generation dexterous hand modules and optimize hardware materials and design [9]

交通运输 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 5 月 7 日 强于大市 交通运输行业周报 中远海特一季报收入同比增长 51.47% ，圆通速 递 2024 年业务量同比增长 25.32% 航运方面，中远海特发布 2025 年一季报，全球航运市场波动加剧情况下公 司业绩仍保持稳步增长；航空方面，海航控股 2024 年营收 652.36 亿元，广 州白云机场 2024 年净利润翻倍；快递方面，圆通速递 2024 年业务量同比增 长 25.32%，2025 年一季度全国社会物流总额达 91 万亿元。 核心观点： ①中远海特发布 2025 年一季报，行业波动加剧情况下公司业绩仍保 持 稳步增长。一季度，公司实现收入 51.96 亿元，同比增长 51.47%，归母 净利润实现 3.45 亿元，同比增长 1.56%。扣非后的归母净利润实现 3.49 亿元，同比增长 13.59%，经营活动现金流量净额为 10.20 亿元，同比增 长 53.08%。公司一季度陆续接入新船，持续打造特种运输船队，货源结 构持续优化，形成稳定盈利基本盘。一季度，公司新接入船舶 13 艘， 合计 77 万载重吨，其中接入纸浆船 7 艘， ...

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 5 月 7 日 | 5 月金股组合 | | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | | 002352.SZ | 顺丰控股 | | 1519.HK | 极兔速递-W | | 603181.SH | 皇马科技 | | 300014.SZ | 亿纬锂能 | | 688198.SH | 佰仁医疗 | | 000524.SZ | 岭南控股 | | 600519.SH | 贵州茅台 | | 9660.HK | 地平线机器人-W | | 688519.SH | 南亚新材 | | 301236.SZ | 软通动力 | 中银晨会聚焦-20250507 ■重点关注 【宏观经济】4 月 PMI 数据点评*陈琦 朱启兵。外部环境对制造企业生产 意愿有所影响。4 月高技术制造业、设备制造业海外需求下滑较为明显。4 月建筑业生产经营延续活跃。部分原材料加工业及纺织工业景气度处于扩 张区间。 【医药生物】键凯科技*刘恩阳。公司公布 24 年年报及 25 年一季报。24 年 全年实现营业收入 2.27 亿元，同比下滑 22.26%，归母净利润为 0.30 亿元， 同比下滑 74.2 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a market price of RMB 22.28 and a sector rating of outperforming the market [1]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the domestic phosphate fertilizer industry, possessing significant upstream resources in phosphate rock and coal, which provides a clear integrated advantage. Continuous reforms have optimized operating expenses, and long-term profitability is expected to remain at a high level, with dividends anticipated to be sustained at elevated levels. This is the first coverage of the company, leading to the "Buy" rating [3][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve net profits of RMB 5.55 billion, RMB 5.76 billion, and RMB 5.83 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding EPS of RMB 3.02, RMB 3.14, and RMB 3.18, leading to PE ratios of 7.4x, 7.1x, and 7.0x respectively [5]. - For 2024, the company expects a revenue decline of 10.89% to RMB 61.54 billion, while net profit is projected to increase by 17.93% to RMB 5.33 billion. The dividend payout ratio is expected to be 47.86% in 2024 [7][8]. Business Overview - The company has a phosphate rock production capacity of 14.5 million tons per year and coal mining capacity of 4 million tons per year, with a total fertilizer production capacity of 10 million tons per year. The company holds a leading market share in phosphate rock reserves and production [8][30]. - The company’s revenue is primarily derived from its fertilizer and logistics businesses, with fertilizer contributing significantly to gross profit. In 2024, fertilizer and logistics revenues are expected to be RMB 26.99 billion and RMB 25.58 billion, respectively [32][36]. Market Position and Industry Outlook - The company is positioned as a domestic leader in phosphate fertilizers, with a market share of approximately 19.16% in P2O5 production. The phosphate fertilizer market is expected to maintain stable growth, supported by robust demand from the agricultural sector and increasing consumption in new energy applications [8][12][54]. - The report highlights that the domestic phosphate rock market is experiencing a slight decrease in effective production capacity, while demand is expected to grow due to the development of new energy sectors [54][55]. Dividend Policy - The company has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, with a planned cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% of the distributable net profit for the years 2024 to 2026. The cash dividends for 2022, 2023, and 2024 were RMB 1.83 billion, RMB 1.82 billion, and RMB 2.55 billion, respectively [49].