策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2026 年 1 月 9 日 策略点评 当前时点，如何看待" 2X " ERP 压力位 全 A 虽临 2X 估值极值压制，但随阈值动态抬升与盈利驱动，全年仍具双位 数空间。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐亚 （8621）20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 历史回溯：理解"2X"作为极端风险阈值的指标意义。股权风险溢价 （ERP）的两倍标准差（2X）上沿是衡量 A 股是否进入"极致泡沫化" 的关键阈值 。从历史长周期来看，万得全 A 指数仅在 2007 年（持续 102 个交易日）和 2015 年（持续 157 个交易日）这两次大牛市中真正实现过 突破 。截至 2026 年 1 月 7 日，万得全 A 的 ERP 为 2.3%，距离 2.18%的 "2X"压力线仅差 0.12% 。这意味着在不考虑盈利 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [11] Core Insights - The report highlights that artificial intelligence has entered the "Physical AI" era, emphasizing the integration of AI with real-world physical dynamics for executing complex tasks [6] - The Rubin platform has entered full-scale production, with significant performance improvements in GPU capabilities, including a 5X increase in inference performance and a 3.5X increase in training performance compared to the previous Blackwell architecture [6] - Robotics and autonomous driving are identified as ideal carriers for "Physical AI," with Nvidia deepening its collaboration with Tesla for the Optimus humanoid robot, which is expected to achieve mass production of 50,000 units by Q1 2026 [6] - The core materials for AI infrastructure are anticipated to reach a critical transition point, with supply chain stocking expected to accelerate in the first half of 2026 [6] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on Nvidia's supply chain, including companies such as Shenghong Technology, Huitian Technology, and Shennan Circuits for PCB; Shunyi Technology for CCL; and Feilihua, Zhongcai Technology for Q fabric; and Dongcai Technology for resin [3] Key Developments - Nvidia's Rubin platform is projected to revolutionize inference costs and has already secured orders worth $300 billion, with products expected to hit the market in the second half of 2026 [6] - The report indicates that the AI market is transitioning from digital to real-world applications, necessitating enhanced computational infrastructure to support the demands of "Physical AI" [6]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the strong growth potential in the electronic materials sector, driven by rapid advancements in downstream industries, continuous technological iterations, and the backdrop of domestic substitution [2][6][10] - The mechanical equipment industry is expected to benefit from structural technological growth, particularly in high-end manufacturing, with a focus on sectors like controlled nuclear fusion and humanoid robots [12][14][17] Electronic Materials Sector - The semiconductor materials market is projected to reach $67.5 billion in sales by 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8%, and is expected to exceed $87 billion by 2029, reflecting a CAGR of 4.5% from 2024 to 2029 [7] - The PCB materials segment is experiencing a shift towards high-frequency and high-speed applications, with the global market for electronic resins and fabrics estimated at approximately $33.02 billion and $24.13 billion respectively in 2023 [8] - The OLED materials market is anticipated to grow significantly, with global sales expected to reach $2.44 billion in 2024 and $8.498 billion by 2031, representing a CAGR of 19.8% from 2025 to 2031 [9] Mechanical Equipment Sector - The controlled nuclear fusion sector is entering a phase of accelerated commercialization, with significant government support and technological breakthroughs expected to drive growth [13][17] - The liquid cooling market is set to expand rapidly due to increasing demands for AI computing power, with liquid cooling becoming essential for future AI servers and data centers [14][17] - The humanoid robot industry is transitioning into mass production, with several companies achieving order and delivery milestones, indicating a growing market for related components [15][17] Tourism and Social Services - Domestic tourism showed strong growth during the New Year holiday, with 142 million domestic trips taken, reflecting a 5.2% increase year-on-year, and total spending reaching approximately 84.79 billion yuan, up 6.3% [20][22] - The cross-border travel market is also experiencing significant growth, with a 28.6% increase in the number of people entering and exiting the country during the holiday period [23] Medical and Biological Sector - The brain-computer interface market is gaining traction, with companies like Neuralink planning large-scale production of devices by 2026, indicating a growing interest in this emerging field [26][28][30] - Domestic companies are making strides in the brain-computer interface space, with over 200 firms reported to be involved, highlighting the potential for significant advancements in this technology [29][30]

◼ 建议关注国内在脑机接口领域布局的企业，如翔宇医疗、美好医疗、创新 医疗、三博脑科、爱朋医疗等标的。 评级面临的主要风险 ◼ 脑机接口行业仍然处于发展初期，行业发展仍具备较大的不确定性；相关 公司的产品多处于临床阶段，产品具备临床失败的风险。 医药生物 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2026 年 1 月 6 日 强于大市 脑机接口市场热度较高，密 切关注后续产业进展 事件：近期，美国企业家马斯克在社交媒体上表示，其旗下的脑机接口公司 Neuralink 计划于 2026 年开始对脑机接口设备进行"大规模生产"，并转向 "更加精简和几乎完全自动化的外科手术流程"。在此背景下，国内脑机接 口相关公司获得较高的市场关注度。 支撑评级的要点 投资建议 相关研究报告 《医药行业 2026 年策略报告》20251205 《从"十五五"规划看医药行业未来发展机会》 20251029 《医保局明确集采反内卷，关注医药板块重估 机会》20250729 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 医药生物 证券分析师：刘恩阳 enyang.liu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300523 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report suggests focusing on undervalued leading companies in the industry, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries, and the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials companies amid strong downstream demand and price increases in certain new energy materials [1][11] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - In the week of December 29 to January 4, 32 out of 100 tracked chemical products saw price increases, 29 saw declines, and 39 remained stable. The average price of 51% of products increased month-on-month, while 39% decreased, and 10% remained unchanged [10][30] - International oil prices rose slightly, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $57.32 per barrel, a weekly increase of 1.02%, and Brent crude oil futures at $60.75 per barrel, a weekly increase of 0.18% [10][31] Investment Recommendations - As of January 4, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the SW basic chemical sector is 25.69, at the 76.92 percentile historically, while the price-to-book ratio is 2.33, at the 61.13 percentile historically. The SW oil and petrochemical sector has a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 13.92, at the 41.86 percentile historically, and a price-to-book ratio of 1.35, at the 46.17 percentile historically [11] - Recommended stocks include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Satellite Chemical, and others, with a focus on companies in emerging fields such as semiconductor materials, OLED materials, and new energy materials [11][19] Price Changes of Key Products - Glyphosate prices decreased to an average of 23,596 CNY/ton, down 2.50% week-on-week and 0.05% year-on-year. The market remains oversupplied with weak demand [32] - Epoxy propane prices fell to an average of 7,785 CNY/ton, down 3.89% week-on-week. The industry operating rate is 63.73%, a decrease of 2.42 percentage points [33] Market Performance - The basic chemical industry experienced a decline of 0.27% in the week, ranking 14th among 31 primary industries, while the oil and petrochemical industry rose by 3.92%, ranking 1st [10][11]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the focus on technological growth in the machinery equipment industry, particularly in high-end manufacturing, as a key driver for investment opportunities in 2026, despite ongoing pressures on domestic and international demand [1] - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the machinery equipment sector, highlighting the potential of hard technology sectors such as controllable nuclear fusion, liquid cooling, solid-state battery equipment, and humanoid robots [1] Controllable Nuclear Fusion - Controllable nuclear fusion is viewed as an ideal energy source due to its abundant fuel resources, high energy density, cleanliness, and safety [12][14] - The commercial application of controllable nuclear fusion is entering a phase of engineering feasibility verification, with significant breakthroughs and increased government investment expected to accelerate commercialization [5][12] - The BEST project has achieved key milestones, including the successful development of critical components, and is set to enter a phase of large-scale bidding in the fourth quarter of 2025, indicating a new stage in the construction of controllable nuclear fusion facilities [29][32] Liquid Cooling - The demand for liquid cooling is expected to rise significantly due to the increasing power requirements of AI and data centers, which are pushing traditional cooling methods to their limits [5][12] - The market for liquid cooling is projected to grow rapidly, driven by industry and policy support, with cold plate liquid cooling being the mainstream solution [5][12] - Key players in the liquid cooling sector, including those providing core components and innovative technologies like microchannel liquid cooling, are recommended for investment [5][12] Lithium Battery Equipment - The lithium battery equipment sector is entering a new capital expenditure cycle, driven by strong demand from electric vehicles and energy storage, leading to a recovery in the industry [5][12] - Solid-state batteries are expected to benefit from early-stage production and technological advancements, with major battery manufacturers planning to achieve small-scale production by 2027-2028 [5][12] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in companies involved in lithium battery equipment manufacturing, particularly those that are well-positioned to capitalize on the upcoming capital expenditure cycle [5][12] Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot sector is transitioning into a phase of mass production, with several companies achieving breakthroughs in orders and deliveries [5][12] - Investment opportunities are identified in core components such as reducers, motors, and sensors, which are expected to benefit from the scaling of humanoid robot production [5][12] - The report notes that while hardware technology is improving, challenges remain in software and control systems that need to be addressed for further commercialization [5][12] Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is showing signs of recovery, with excavator sales in China increasing by 16.7% year-on-year in the first eleven months of 2025, indicating a rebound in both domestic and international demand [5][12] - The report anticipates a new upward cycle in the engineering machinery industry, supported by infrastructure investments and a recovering global economy [5][12] - Recommended companies in this sector include those that are well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated demand growth in both domestic and international markets [5][12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [22]. Core Insights - The domestic tourism market remains robust, with a significant increase in both domestic and outbound travel during the New Year holiday. The upcoming Spring Festival, which has a longer holiday duration, is expected to further enhance travel activity [3][15]. - The report highlights strong performance in the duty-free market, particularly in Hainan, driven by favorable policies and promotional activities, leading to a substantial increase in sales [11][15]. - Key recommended companies include Lingnan Holdings, Tongcheng Travel, Changbai Mountain, Huangshan Tourism, and China Duty Free Group, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in business travel and increased market share post-pandemic [3][15]. Summary by Sections Domestic Travel - During the New Year holiday, 142 million domestic trips were made, a 5.2% increase compared to the previous year, with total spending reaching 84.789 billion yuan, up 6.3% [6][8]. - The average spending per trip was 597.11 yuan, reflecting a 1.1% increase year-on-year [6]. - The total inter-regional passenger flow was estimated at 590 million, with a daily average of 19.8 million, marking a 19.5% year-on-year increase [7][8]. Duty-Free Market - Hainan received 2.1716 million tourists during the New Year holiday, a 25.2% increase year-on-year, with total tourism spending of 3.136 billion yuan, up 28.9% [11]. - Duty-free sales saw a remarkable performance, with 442,000 items sold, a 52.4% increase, and shopping expenditure reaching 712 million yuan, up 128.9% year-on-year [12][11]. Cross-Border Travel - A total of 6.615 million people crossed borders during the New Year holiday, with a daily average of 2.205 million, representing a 28.6% increase year-on-year [13]. - Outbound travel remains popular, particularly to short-distance destinations like South Korea and Vietnam, while inbound travel is seeing a shift towards less conventional cities [14][13].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the growth opportunities in the electronic materials sector driven by rapid downstream development, technological advancements, and domestic substitution [3][5] - The semiconductor materials market is projected to grow significantly, with a forecasted sales revenue of USD 67.5 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [7][34] - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investments in electronic materials [3][5] Semiconductor Materials - The global semiconductor materials market is expected to exceed USD 87 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5% from 2024 to 2029 [7][34] - China's semiconductor materials domestic substitution rate is currently around 15%, with significant reliance on imports for high-end materials [38][42] - Key materials such as CMP polishing materials, photoresists, and electronic specialty gases are seeing increased domestic production efforts, which are expected to enhance the domestic substitution rate [38][42] PCB Materials - The PCB industry is evolving towards high-frequency and high-speed applications, with increasing demand for electronic resins and fabrics [7][34] - The global market for electronic resins and fabrics used in PCB production is estimated at approximately USD 33.02 billion and USD 24.13 billion, respectively, in 2023 [7][34] - The transition to high-frequency and high-speed PCBs is driven by advancements in 5G technology and the rapid growth of data centers and cloud computing [7][34] OLED Materials - The demand for OLED materials is expected to grow rapidly due to increasing terminal application needs and the acceleration of high-generation line capacity release [7][34] - The global OLED display materials market is projected to reach USD 2.44 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 19.8% expected from 2025 to 2031 [7][34] - Domestic OLED organic materials currently have a low substitution rate of around 12%, indicating significant growth potential as local manufacturers expand their capabilities [7][34] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies benefiting from the semiconductor market recovery, such as Anji Technology, Yake Technology, and Jiangfeng Electronics, among others [5][34] - For AI server demand, companies like Shengquan Group and Dongcai Technology are highlighted as key players in the electronic resin market [5][34] - In the OLED sector, companies like Lite-On Optoelectronics and Wanrun Co., Ltd. are recommended due to their strong market positions [5][34] Industry Performance - The semiconductor materials index has shown a cumulative increase of 37.87% in 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 18.72 percentage points [26] - The electronic chemicals index has increased by 54.98% in the same period, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 35.83 percentage points [26] - Overall, the electronic materials industry is experiencing stable growth, with significant improvements in revenue and profitability metrics [16][26]

Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant drop in crude oil shipping rates, while long-distance shipping rates have increased. The China Import Crude Oil Composite Index (CTFI) fell by 40.6% to 1354.35 points as of December 25, 2025. Conversely, shipping rates for routes to Europe and the US have risen, with rates for Shanghai to Europe increasing by 10.2% to $1690 per TEU, and rates to the US West and East coasts rising by 9.8% and 6.6% respectively [3][13] - The report notes that Peak Flying's Kai Rui Ou eVTOL successfully completed the first ton-level unmanned cross-strait flight over the Qiongzhou Strait, demonstrating the feasibility of low-altitude transportation. Additionally, China National Airlines plans to purchase 60 Airbus A320NEO aircraft, with a total list price of approximately $9.53 billion, scheduled for delivery between 2028 and 2032 [3][14][16] - JD.com has launched its first campus "Smart Wolf" front warehouse at Guangdong Industry and Commerce Vocational Technical University, contributing to a 5.0% year-on-year growth in national social logistics total, amounting to 331.2 trillion yuan for the first 11 months of 2025 [3][22][23] Summary by Sections Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index has decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year. The Shanghai outbound air freight price index was reported at 5821.00 points, showing a year-on-year increase of 9.3% but a month-on-month decrease of 8.6% [25] - Domestic cargo flight operations saw a year-on-year decline of 3.24% in December 2025, while international flights increased by 15.99% [26] - The SCFI index for container shipping was reported at 1656.32 points, with a week-on-week increase of 6.66% but a year-on-year decrease of 32.68% [35] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies such as COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics. It also highlights opportunities in low-altitude economy trends and road-rail investment opportunities [4][5]

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in the Hang Seng Index (HSI) by 2.8% year-to-date, indicating a positive market sentiment [2] - Commodity prices show mixed performance, with gold increasing by 1.0% year-to-date, while Brent crude oil has decreased by 0.5% [3] - Key macroeconomic indicators from the US show a stable personal income growth of 0.4% month-on-month, while the unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.6% [4] Index Performance - The HSI closed at 26,338, reflecting a 2.8% increase for the day and year-to-date [2] - The HSCEI and MSCI HK also showed positive movements, increasing by 2.9% and 2.4% respectively [2] - In contrast, the FTSE China A50 and CSI 300 experienced slight declines of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively [2] Commodity Price Performance - Brent crude oil is priced at US$61 per barrel, down 0.4% for the day and 0.5% year-to-date [3] - Gold is trading at US$4,365 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 1.0% [3] - Copper and aluminum prices have shown slight increases, with copper at US$12,470 per ton and aluminum at US$2,991 per ton [3] Key Macro and Earnings Releases - The China PMI Services index reported at 52.1, indicating expansion in the services sector [4] - The US PCE Price Index year-on-year stands at 2.8%, reflecting stable inflation [4] - The ISM Manufacturing index is slightly below consensus at 48.2, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector [4] Key Events - Upcoming corporate access events include meetings with key figures in the consumer sector scheduled for January [5]