Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook based on current valuations and expected demand recovery [1]. Core Insights - The basic chemical industry showed a year-on-year recovery in profitability in Q1 2025, with revenue and net profit increasing by 5.58% and 13.33%, respectively [4][45]. - The oil and petrochemical sector's performance remains stable despite short-term fluctuations in oil prices, with a slight decline in revenue and net profit [27][33]. - The report highlights that the construction projects in the basic chemical sector experienced a negative growth for the first time in five years, indicating potential challenges ahead [20]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In Q1 2025, the basic chemical industry achieved total revenue of 534.57 billion yuan and a net profit of 34.26 billion yuan, marking the first year-on-year growth in nearly three years [4][5]. - The oil and petrochemical sector reported total revenue of 1,931.83 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.78% year-on-year, with net profit declining by 6.35% [27][30]. Profitability Metrics - The basic chemical industry's gross margin and net margin improved to 16.91% and 6.63%, respectively, with a return on equity (ROE) of 1.85% [11][45]. - The oil and petrochemical sector maintained a gross margin of 19.19% and a net margin of 5.74%, with a slight decrease in ROE to 2.82% [33][38]. Sub-industry Performance - Among 33 sub-industries in the basic chemical sector, 22 reported revenue growth, with significant increases in other chemical raw materials (+29.08%) and compound fertilizers (+25.84%) [4][10]. - The oilfield services segment within the oil and petrochemical sector saw a robust net profit growth of 29.82% [27][31]. Construction and Investment Trends - The basic chemical sector's construction projects totaled 363.16 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.04% year-on-year decrease, the first negative growth in five years [20][23]. - The oil and petrochemical sector's construction projects increased by 8.23% to 582.72 billion yuan, indicating ongoing investment despite revenue declines [40][41]. Market Valuation - As of May 11, 2025, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the basic chemical sector was 21.92, and for the oil and petrochemical sector, it was 10.58, both indicating low historical valuations [1][23].

Investment Rating - The report rates the computer industry as "Outperforming the Market" [29] Core Views - Recent US AI restrictions are expected to benefit domestic software and hardware manufacturers in China, as companies like Huawei and Xiaomi advance their chip development [11][14] - The tightening of AI chip export controls by the US may create short-term pressure on domestic companies but is likely to foster long-term growth in the local hardware ecosystem [11][13] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies within the Huawei HarmonyOS ecosystem, such as Softcom Power, Runhe Software, and Tuo Wei Information [3] - It also recommends companies related to technological self-sufficiency, including Dameng Data, Cambricon Technologies, and Yuntian Lifi, as well as companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential like Hehe Information [3] Industry News - The US has implemented new AI chip export controls, specifically banning the global use of Huawei's Ascend AI chips [10] - Nvidia is reassessing its strategy in the Chinese market due to restrictions on its H20 chip exports [12] - Xiaomi has announced its self-developed chip, the "Xuanjie O1," which will be used in various products beyond smartphones [14] Company Dynamics - iFlytek showcased its AI+Education innovations at the 2025 World Digital Education Conference [20] - Hengsheng Electronics conducted its first share buyback, purchasing 37,200 shares at prices between 26.76 and 27.02 RMB per share [21]

Group 1: Stock Recommendations - The report highlights a selection of stocks for May, including SF Holding (002352.SZ), Jitu Express (1519.HK), and Royal Technology (603181.SH) among others [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Insights - In April, the public fiscal revenue reached CNY 20,427 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.9%, which is an acceleration of 1.6 percentage points compared to March [7] - The land revenue in April also saw a year-on-year increase, supporting the improvement of local government fund income [8] - The consumer confidence index and dining data showed signs of recovery in Q1 2025, with retail sales in the dining sector growing by 5.6% year-on-year [18] Group 3: Real Estate Market Analysis - In April, new home prices in 70 major cities decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices fell by 0.4%, indicating a continued downward trend in the housing market [10][11] - The number of cities experiencing a decline in new home prices increased to 45 in April, with an average decline of 0.30% [11] - First-tier cities saw a shift in second-hand home prices from an increase to a decrease, with Beijing and Shenzhen both reporting declines [12] Group 4: Alcohol Industry Overview - The white liquor industry is currently in a bottom adjustment phase, with major companies maintaining stable operations while smaller firms face challenges [16] - In Q1 2025, the revenue growth for listed liquor companies was 1.6%, with net profit growth at 2.3%, showing a recovery compared to Q4 2024 [18] - The sales gross margin for the white liquor sector was 81.5% in Q1 2025, slightly down from 81.8% in 2024, indicating pressure on profit margins [19]

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In April, public fiscal revenue reached CNY 20,427.0 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, accelerating by 1.6 percentage points from March[6] - Tax revenue for April was CNY 18,106.0 billion, also up 1.9% year-on-year, improving by 4.1 percentage points compared to March[6] - Public fiscal expenditure in April amounted to CNY 20,766.0 billion, growing by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly faster than March's growth[11] Tax Contributions - Corporate income tax, being the highest contributing tax in April, saw a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, contributing 1.4 percentage points to the overall tax revenue growth[2] - Domestic value-added tax (VAT) increased by 0.9% year-on-year, contributing 0.3 percentage points to the tax revenue growth, although the growth rate narrowed by 4.0 percentage points from the previous month[8] Social Security and Infrastructure Spending - Social security and employment expenditures accounted for 15.8% of public fiscal spending in April, with a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, supporting resident income and domestic demand[14] - Infrastructure spending represented 17.1% of public fiscal expenditure, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.6% for transportation and 6.8% for urban community affairs[14] Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - In the first four months of 2025, government fund budget revenue totaled CNY 12,586.0 billion, down 6.7% year-on-year, but the decline rate narrowed by 4.3 percentage points compared to the first quarter[19] - April's government fund expenditure reached CNY 6,367.0 billion, a significant year-on-year increase of 44.7%, with local government fund expenditure growing by 43.5%[22] Future Fiscal Policy Outlook - The political bureau meeting emphasized enhancing consumption's role in economic growth and increasing income for low- and middle-income groups, indicating potential fiscal support for these areas[24] - Fiscal policies are expected to focus on increasing transfer income for residents and promoting consumption through trade-in programs for appliances and vehicles, which could stimulate domestic demand[24]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In April, despite extreme tariff pressure, the RMB exchange rate quickly stabilized and rebounded after a brief adjustment, and the multilateral exchange rate continued to weaken. There's no need to worry too much about the passive appreciation of the RMB exchange rate when the US dollar index is weak [2]. - In April, under the impact of Trump's tariffs, cross - border funds had a net inflow for the third consecutive month. Goods trade showed strong resilience, while securities investment was under pressure. However, foreign investors' willingness to allocate RMB assets continued to improve, thanks to the Chinese government's effective response to external shocks and timely stabilization of market expectations [2]. - In April, the enhanced willingness of market players to settle foreign exchange (or weakened motivation to hold foreign exchange) drove the continuous improvement of the domestic foreign exchange supply - demand relationship. The change in the willingness of the enterprise sector to hold foreign exchange was more obvious than that of the household sector [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs RMB Exchange Rate Performance - In April, after two rounds of 10 - percentage - point tariff increases on Chinese goods by Trump in February and March, the RMB exchange rate did not fall but rose. Facing the extreme pressure of the US "reciprocal tariff" in April, the RMB exchange rate re - priced the unexpected major risk event. The offshore RMB exchange rate once fell to around 7.43 on April 8 and 9, and the on - shore RMB exchange rate fell below 7.35 on April 9. Then, the RMB exchange rate rebounded, and the divergence of the "three prices" significantly converged. At the end of April, the on - shore and offshore RMB exchange rates depreciated by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively compared with the end of last month but appreciated by 0.5% and 0.9% respectively compared with the end of last year [3]. - The RMB exchange rate quickly stabilized and rebounded in April because the foreign exchange market had priced in Trump's impact in advance at the end of last year. On the one hand, Trump's policies intensified the US dollar credit crisis, causing the US to turn from a safe - haven to a risk source, with the US dollar index falling by 4.4% in the month, the largest decline since December 2022. On the other hand, the Chinese government's effective response, including tariff counter - measures and a series of financial support policies, stabilized market confidence [4]. - In April, the decline of the US dollar index led to the appreciation of major non - US currencies, so the RMB exchange rate index continued to weaken. The CFETS RMB exchange rate index and the RMB exchange rate index referencing the BIS currency basket fell for the fourth consecutive month, with the month - on - month decline expanding from 0.9% and 0.8% last month to 2.8% and 3.1% respectively. The RMB exchange rate index referencing the SDR currency basket weakened for the third consecutive month, with the month - on - month decline expanding from 1.3% to 2.9% [5]. Cross - border Capital Flows - Since February, under the impact of Trump's tariffs, the bank's customer - related foreign exchange receipts and payments have had a continuous surplus, with the surplus amounts being $29 billion, $49.2 billion, and $17.3 billion respectively. In April, securities investment, income and current transfers, service trade, and direct investment were all items with cross - border capital outflows, with deficits of $12.5 billion, $16.6 billion, $10.5 billion, and $7.3 billion respectively. Goods trade continued to play a fundamental role in stabilizing cross - border capital flows, with a surplus of $63 billion, a record high for the same period [11]. - In April, the net inflow of cross - border funds decreased month - on - month, mainly due to securities investment, which changed from a net inflow in the previous two months to a net outflow of $12.5 billion, contributing 62% to the month - on - month decline in the overall net inflow of cross - border funds. However, the net outflow of securities investment in April was less than the average monthly net outflow of $28.4 billion from October 2024 to January 2025, indicating limited pressure on the net outflow of cross - border funds under securities investment [12]. - In April, foreign investors' willingness to allocate RMB assets continued to improve under the extreme tariff pressure. The central Huijin Company clearly stated that it would play the role of a "stabilization fund" and increase its holdings of ETFs and high - quality stocks. The People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration issued support policies to stabilize the capital market, and state - owned asset operation platforms also increased their holdings of central enterprise and technology - innovation stocks [13]. Foreign Exchange Supply - Demand Relationship - In April, the bank's spot and forward (including options) foreign exchange settlement and sales (hereinafter referred to as bank foreign exchange settlement and sales) had a surplus for the second consecutive month, and the surplus increased from $6.3 billion last month to $16.6 billion. The net purchase of forward and options foreign exchange derivatives increased from $8.3 billion last month to $20.9 billion, and the bank's customer - related foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus increased from $100 million last month to $590 million, contributing 122% and 56% respectively to the increase in the bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus. The bank's own foreign exchange settlement and sales deficit increased from $2.1 billion last month to $10.1 billion, with a contribution rate of - 79% [15]. - In April, the surplus of the bank's customer - related foreign currency receipts and payments decreased from $34.5 billion last month to $14.2 billion, but the bank's customer - related foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus increased instead of decreasing. The gap between them decreased from $34.4 billion last month to $8.3 billion, the lowest since February 2024. This was mainly because the willingness of market players to settle foreign exchange increased and the motivation to purchase foreign exchange decreased. The settlement rate of foreign exchange receipts (excluding forward performance) increased by 6.9 percentage points month - on - month to 57.4%, the highest since October 2024, and the purchase rate of foreign exchange for payments decreased by 1.0 percentage point [16]. - In April, the gaps between the foreign exchange receipts and payments and foreign exchange settlement and sales of goods trade and service trade narrowed to $31.4 billion and $3.3 billion respectively, both the lowest since October 2024. The narrowing of the goods trade gap was due to the weakened motivation of the enterprise sector to hold foreign exchange, and the settlement rate of goods trade income continued to rise, increasing by 5.1 percentage points month - on - month to 51.0%, the highest in nearly half a year. The narrowing of the service trade gap was because the motivation of the household sector to hold and rush to buy foreign exchange both weakened [17].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [27]. Core Insights - In April 2025, the new home prices in 70 major cities decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices fell by 0.4%. The number of cities experiencing price declines for new homes increased to 45, and for second-hand homes, it rose to 64 [5][11]. - The report highlights that the price decline in April represents a weakening trend compared to the previous months, with the average decline for new homes being 0.30% and for second-hand homes being 0.45% [5][11]. - The report suggests that maintaining a more relaxed policy is crucial to stabilize the real estate market, emphasizing the importance of effective policy implementation [5][11]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - In April 2025, new home prices in first-tier cities remained flat, while second-hand home prices shifted from an increase to a decrease. Specifically, Shanghai saw a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, while Beijing increased by 0.1%. In contrast, Shenzhen and Guangzhou experienced declines of 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively [5][11]. - For second-tier cities, new home prices remained stable, with 52% of these cities either maintaining or increasing prices. However, second-hand home prices fell by 0.4%, with only 6% of cities seeing price stability or increases [5][11]. - Third-tier cities also saw new home prices decline by 0.2%, while second-hand home prices decreased by 0.4% [5][11]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on four main lines of investment: 1. Companies with stable fundamentals and high market share in core cities, such as Binjiang Group and Greentown China [5]. 2. Smaller companies that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition since 2024, like Poly Real Estate Group [5]. 3. Companies with operational or strategic changes, including Gemdale Corporation and Longfor Group [5]. 4. Real estate brokerage firms benefiting from the recovery in the second-hand housing market, such as Beike-W and Wo Ai Wo Jia [5].

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The white liquor industry is currently in a bottom adjustment phase, with leading companies demonstrating stable operations. In the second half of 2024, the performance of the white liquor industry continued to decline, and companies proactively adjusted their operational pace. In the first quarter of 2025, companies maintained the operational rhythm from the second half of 2024, with a slowdown in performance growth but a recovery compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. There is an increasing divergence among different companies [1][12][27]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The white liquor industry experienced a significant performance decline in the second half of 2024, with the first quarter of 2025 showing slight improvement. The overall revenue and net profit growth rates for the white liquor sector in 2024 were +7.3% and +7.4%, respectively, outperforming the overall food and beverage sector [12][15]. Revenue Performance - In the first quarter of 2025, the revenue and net profit growth rates for listed liquor companies were 1.6% and 2.3%, respectively. High-end liquor and regional leading companies maintained steady growth, while other types of liquor companies faced negative growth [27][28]. Profitability Analysis - The sales expense ratio slightly increased, and the net profit margin faced temporary pressure. The gross profit margins for the white liquor sector in 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 were 81.8% and 81.5%, respectively, showing a year-on-year increase [1][12][27]. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights the current valuation advantage in the white liquor industry, suggesting that leading companies possess medium to long-term investment value. It recommends stable performers such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai, while also suggesting attention to companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Wuliangye, which have shown thorough clearing of their financial statements [1][12][28].

Core Insights - The report highlights a selection of stocks for May, including companies like SF Holding (顺丰控股) and Guizhou Moutai (贵州茅台), indicating a focus on logistics and consumer goods sectors [1] - The overall market indices showed positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3380.48, up by 0.38% [1] Industry Performance - The beauty care sector saw a rise of 2.50%, while the defense and coal industries experienced declines of 0.50% and 0.33% respectively, indicating varied performance across sectors [2] - The electric power equipment and new energy industry reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, but a recovery in profitability is expected in 2025 as demand remains strong [8][10] Company-Specific Analysis Yake Technology (雅克科技) - In 2024, Yake Technology achieved a revenue of 6.862 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.84%, and a net profit of 872 million yuan, up by 50.41% [3][11] - The company reported a strong performance in Q4 2024 with a revenue of 1.863 billion yuan, reflecting a 55.78% year-on-year increase [11] - For Q1 2025, revenue reached 2.118 billion yuan, a 30.88% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 260 million yuan, up by 5.85% [11] Blue Sky Technology (蓝晓科技) - Blue Sky Technology reported a revenue of 2.554 billion yuan in 2024, a 2.62% increase, and a net profit of 787 million yuan, up by 9.79% [4][16] - The company’s Q1 2025 revenue was 577 million yuan, down by 8.58% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 14.18% [16] Bailong Chuangyuan (百龙创园) - Bailong Chuangyuan achieved a total revenue of 1.152 billion yuan in 2024, a 32.64% increase, with a net profit of 246 million yuan, up by 27.26% [5][21] - The company’s Q1 2025 revenue was 313 million yuan, reflecting a 24.27% year-on-year growth [21] Financial Metrics - The electric power equipment and new energy sector experienced a 3.69% decrease in total revenue for 2024, with a net profit decline of 44.66% [8][9] - The average gross margin for the electric power equipment sector was reported at 26.54%, with a slight increase of 0.06 percentage points [9] - Yake Technology's gross margin for 2024 was 31.59%, with a net margin of 12.27% [12] Growth Drivers - The report emphasizes the strong growth potential in the functional sugar sector, particularly for Bailong Chuangyuan, driven by new product launches and increased demand [21][25] - Blue Sky Technology's performance is supported by robust demand in life sciences and industrial applications, contributing to stable revenue growth [17][18]

Economic Performance - In April, industrial added value increased by 6.1% year-on-year, exceeding the consensus expectation of 5.2%[3] - Fixed asset investment growth for January-April was 4.0%, with real estate investment declining by 10.3%[20] - Retail sales grew by 5.1% year-on-year in April, lower than expected, with significant declines in certain sectors[12] Sector Analysis - Manufacturing sector maintained a strong performance with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 7.1% in industrial added value from January to April[6] - High-tech industries showed robust growth, with a year-on-year increase of 9.8% in industrial added value[6] - Real estate investment continues to face challenges, with new construction area down by 23.8% year-on-year[24] External Factors - The impact of external demand shocks is becoming evident, particularly from U.S. tariffs affecting industries like textiles and general equipment[31] - The "export grabbing" trend continues, particularly in the electrical equipment sector, which saw a slight increase in industrial added value in April[31] Future Outlook - Economic expectations for Q2 are improving due to recent financial policy adjustments, including interest rate cuts[32] - However, uncertainties remain regarding U.S. tariff policies and their potential impact on external demand later in the year[32] - The most effective measure for stabilizing growth is to expand domestic demand, with a focus on the efficiency of fiscal policy implementation[32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company's nickel resource competitiveness is continuously enhancing, and the recycling business is experiencing rapid growth, which is expected to become a new profit growth point for the company [4]. - The report adjusts the earnings forecast for 2025-2027, with projected earnings per share of RMB 0.33, 0.47, and 0.63 respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment due to falling nickel prices [6]. - The company reported a year-on-year increase in net profit for both the 2024 annual report and the 2025 Q1 report, indicating strong operational performance [9]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 33,200 million, a year-on-year growth of 8.75%, and a net profit of RMB 1,020 million, up 9.19% [9][10]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of RMB 9,496 million, a 13.67% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 511 million, reflecting a 12.10% growth [11]. Revenue and Profit Growth - The company's main business revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of RMB 42,174 million in 2025, representing a 27.0% growth rate [8]. - The EBITDA is expected to reach RMB 5,861 million in 2025, indicating strong operational efficiency and profitability [8]. Nickel Resource and Recycling Business - The company has successfully launched several production lines for nickel and battery materials, enhancing its competitive position in the nickel resource and new energy materials industry [9]. - The recycling business, particularly in lithium battery recovery, has shown substantial growth, with a 31% increase in battery recovery volume in 2024 [9]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a valuation with a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.0 for 2025, reflecting the company's growth potential despite the adjustments in earnings forecasts [6][8].