策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量深度 2025 年 5 月 26 日 三阶段投资框架 人形机器人行至何处 人形机器人行业当前处于产业趋势前期，关注价值量较大的相关细分方向。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐亚 (8621)20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 从统一性指标及股价驱动力拆解角度，将一个细分行业从孕育期到成长 期对应的投资方法顺序归纳为主题投资→产业趋势投资（前期及加速阶 段）→景气周期投资三个阶段。 主题投资，主题投资阶段，对应的表观规律是板块的近端估值明显抬升， 背后逻辑是投资者买入其远端 EPS 改善的预期。主题可以分为两种，从 结果出发：一是"未走出"型主题，二是"可走出"型主题。产业趋势 投资，需要多个指标同时观察。如 1）机构配置比例。2）成交额占比中 枢提升。3）渗透率指标环比启动。4）"奇点"时刻得到关注及认可。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the transportation industry, particularly highlighting opportunities in the shipping and port sectors [4]. Core Insights - The transportation industry is experiencing a mixed performance, with shipping and port sectors under pressure while the express delivery sector continues to grow [1][2]. - The shipping market is expected to recover gradually, with signs of improvement in oil transportation and a stable outlook for port operations despite recent challenges [1][25]. - The express delivery sector is projected to maintain robust growth, although average ticket prices are declining due to increased competition and a shift towards lower-value packages [1][3]. Summary by Sections Shipping and Port Sector - In Q1 2025, the oil transportation market started weakly, with VLCC market performance significantly lower than the same period last year. The overall revenue for 14 listed shipping companies in 2024 was CNY 364.97 billion, a 26.47% increase year-on-year, while net profit rose by 68.72% to CNY 66.79 billion [13][19]. - The port sector showed relative stability in performance, with 18 listed port companies reporting a total revenue of CNY 222.90 billion in 2024, a slight increase of 0.62%, but net profit decreased by 21.78% to CNY 32.22 billion [26][30]. Aviation and Airport Sector - The aviation industry is witnessing a divergence in performance, with traditional full-service airlines facing challenges while low-cost carriers are gaining market share. The overall passenger traffic is recovering, but ticket prices remain weak, impacting profitability [1][2]. - Airport non-aeronautical revenues are under pressure due to new tax agreements affecting profit margins. For instance, the new duty-free agreement at Shanghai Airport has reduced profit elasticity [1][2]. Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery industry in 2024 is expected to see a business volume of 174.5 billion packages, a 21% increase year-on-year, with total revenue reaching CNY 1.4 trillion, up 13% [1][2]. - The average ticket price for express delivery has decreased from CNY 9.1 to CNY 8.0 due to the increasing proportion of low-value packages and heightened competition among leading companies [1][2]. Road and Rail Sector - The railway passenger volume growth reached double digits in 2024, with a total of 4.31 billion passengers, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%. The total freight volume was 5.17 billion tons, up 2.8% [1][2]. - The road transport sector also showed growth, with freight volume reaching 41.88 billion tons, a 3.8% increase, and passenger transport volume at 11.78 billion, up 7% [1][2].

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 5 月 26 日 资料来源：万得，中银证券 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 产品组 证券分析师：王军 | 中银晨会聚焦-20250526 | | --- | ■重点关注 【社会服务】社服行业 24 年年度&25Q1 业绩综述*李小民 宋环翔 纠泰民。板 块整体营收稳步增长，业绩端恢复较慢，子板块之间分化较大。一方面建议关 注顺周期下人服会展等板块的表现；另一方面建议关注韧性较强的旅游景区等 快乐消费。 【通信】云厂商加码资本开支，算力产业链迎发展机遇*庄宇 袁妲。2025 年， 腾讯与阿里巴巴纷纷加大资本开支，有力推动国内算力发展。腾讯 2025 年第一季度资 本开支达 275 亿元，同比增长 91%。阿里巴巴 2025年一季度资本开支为 246 亿元，虽 环比下降但公司 2025年 Q1资本开支承诺大幅增长，我们认为其云与 AI 基础设施投入 将持续增加。算力租赁、IDC 及配套等相关产业链方向值得关注，有望迎来新的发展契 机。 | 市场指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 ...

Market Performance - A-shares experienced a pullback after an initial rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.2% and the Shenzhen Component down 0.5% for the week[3] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.1%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.7%[3] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 dropped by 2.6% and 2.4%, respectively, amid rising trade tensions and tariff threats[3] Trading Volume and Activity - Average daily trading volume decreased to CNY 1.17 trillion, a 7% decline from the previous week[3] - Small-cap stocks accounted for 50.6% of A-share trading volume, the highest level since 2014[3] - The turnover rate for the A-share market was 1.4%, with a Z-score of 0.4, indicating a slight decrease in trading activity compared to historical averages[3] Sector Performance - The healthcare, comprehensive, and non-ferrous metals sectors led gains, while the technology sector faced the largest declines[3] - The beauty and personal care sector, which had seen five consecutive weeks of gains, experienced a pullback this week[3] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise, with the 10-year yield increasing by 8 basis points to 4.51% and the 30-year yield rising by 15 basis points to 5.04%[3] - Domestic bond yields showed narrow fluctuations, with the market reacting to changes in liquidity and economic data releases[3] Currency and Commodity Trends - The U.S. dollar index fell by 1.8%, while the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.5% against the dollar, closing at 7.17[3] - Gold prices surged by 4.9% to USD 3,358 per ounce, marking the largest weekly increase since April 12[3] - WTI crude oil prices decreased by 1.2% to USD 61.8 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production reports[3]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the A-share market is currently in a consolidation phase, but its resilience remains intact. Short-term positioning is shifting towards defensive attributes due to concerns over rising US Treasury yields and their impact on liquidity [3][4][15] - The report highlights a significant change in the driving logic of small-cap stocks over the past two years, suggesting that the downward space for small-cap indices has been substantially narrowed due to the supportive liquidity from broad-based ETFs [32][30] - The AI industry configuration model has shown a clear trend towards dividend transfer, with a focus on sectors such as public utilities, non-bank financials, and essential consumer goods [40][41] Market Overview - The report notes that the recent rise in US Treasury yields has raised long-term concerns and short-term risks, but it has not yet triggered a global liquidity crisis. The focus remains on the actions and statements from fiscal and monetary authorities [13][14] - The A-share market is characterized by a box-shaped oscillation pattern, with ample policy reserves and low economic downturn risks. The market's upward potential is contingent on the strength of economic recovery [15][4] - The report emphasizes that the market's style may experience a phase reversal, with small-cap stocks facing potential adjustments while high valuations may see a recovery [15][4] Industry Insights - The innovative pharmaceutical sector has shown strong performance, driven by significant collaborations such as the partnership between 3SBio and Pfizer, which is expected to stimulate market sentiment [30] - The report indicates that the Chinese innovative drug industry is rapidly developing, with a notable increase in license-out transactions, suggesting a robust pathway for international expansion [30] - The report also highlights the performance of various sectors, with the automotive industry receiving significant capital inflows, while the TMT sector and small-cap financials faced notable declines [45][30]

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电力设备 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 5 月 25 日 强于大市 电力设备与新能源行业 5月 第 3 周周报 固态电池催化不断， 4 月光伏新增装机同比高增 光伏方面，我国一季度光伏装机实现较高速增长，对美国及全球新兴经济体 光伏需求增速保持乐观。中央经济工作会议明确提出综合整治"内卷式"竞 争，光伏供给侧改革力度有望加强。光伏制造降本增效仍为主线，重点关注 硅料、电池片头部企业格局优化、盈利提升以及金属化新技术渗透率提升。 风电方面，国内海陆风招标及建设有望稳步推进，2025 年需求向好或带动整 机与零部件环节盈利修复；同时伴随国内项目招标动工、海外利率下行及项 目规划推进，海外及出海需求亦相对旺盛。建议优先配置盈利有望改善的整 机及锻铸件环节，受益于海风、出海逻辑的整机、桩基、海缆环节。新能源 车方面，政府工作报告提出大力发展智能网联新能源汽车，全年销量有望保 持高增，带动电池和材料需求增长。近期受供需影响，部分材料环节出现涨 价，有望带动盈利回升，2025 年或迎来量利齐升。新技术方面，固态电池产 业化持续发酵，2027 年或实现量产，在相关领域有布局的电池、材料和设备 企业有望受益。 ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 5 月 25 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 美国关税的全球影响仍在延续，扩内需是稳增长 的要义 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。 宏观要闻回顾 资产表现回顾 ◼ 人民币资产价格波动。本周沪深 300 指数下跌 0.18%，沪深 300 股指期货 上涨 0.21%；焦煤期货本周下跌 5.61%，铁矿石主力合约本周下跌 0.89%； 股份制银行理财预期收益率收于 1.85%，余额宝 7 天年化收益率上涨 8BP 至 1.33%；十年国债收益率上行 4BP 至 1.72%，活跃十年国债期货本周上 涨 0.36%。 资产配置建议 本期观点（2025.5.25） | 宏观经济 | | 本期观点 | 观点变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 一个月内 | = | 关注国内稳增长政策的落地情况 | 不变 | | 三个月内 | = | 关注中美经贸磋商进展及其释放的重要信息 | 不变 | | 一年内 | = | 地缘关系仍有较大不确定性 | 不变 | | 大类资产 | | 本期观点 | 观点变化 | | 股票 | + | 关注"增量" ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services industry [1] Core Insights - The overall revenue of the sector is steadily increasing, but the recovery in performance is slower, with significant differentiation among sub-sectors. Attention is recommended for cyclical recovery sectors such as human resources and exhibitions, as well as resilient sectors like tourism and scenic spots [1][2] - In 2024, the social services sector achieved a total revenue of 191.54 billion, a year-on-year increase of 36.57%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.48 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 18.21%. The overall profitability has declined [10][14] - In Q1 2025, the sector generated a revenue of 44.84 billion, a year-on-year increase of 38.75%, with a net profit of 1.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33.06% [20][22] Summary by Sections Sector Summary - The revenue growth rate outperformed the profit growth rate, with the professional services and education sectors performing better. In 2024, the professional services sector saw a year-on-year increase of 79.57%, while the education sector's profit level improved significantly [10][14] - In Q1 2025, the professional services sector led with a revenue growth of 89.62%, followed by tourism and scenic spots at 7.39% [22] Tourism - The domestic travel market shows strong resilience, with a total of 5.615 billion domestic tourists in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.80% [34] - The cross-border travel market is experiencing high demand, with inbound tourists reaching 132 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 60.8% [40] Hotels - Business travel demand is still recovering, with the RevPAR expected to be under pressure throughout 2024 [13] Catering - The catering market is expected to see slower revenue growth in 2024, with Q1 2025 showing some improvement [16] Duty-Free - Duty-free sales in offshore areas are showing marginal improvement, with city channels expected to contribute to growth [18] Human Resources - The human resources sector is experiencing stable data operations, but employment market pressures remain [22] Exhibitions - The domestic exhibition market is steadily growing, with the number of exhibitions remaining stable in 2024 [24]

Market Strategy Update - The report indicates that while domestic economic growth momentum has weakened in April, the downside risk remains limited, suggesting a short-term consolidation in A-shares with a focus on external demand and growth themes [1][2] Economic Data Analysis - April's economic data shows a decline compared to March, with external demand outperforming internal demand. Industrial value-added in April grew by 6.1% year-on-year, although this is lower than previous values, yet it remains above the five-year average [2] - Investment and consumption also saw a decline from March, with real estate and manufacturing investments weakening in April. Retail sales showed resilience in essential consumption, but the growth rate for automobiles and communication equipment has notably decreased [2] External vs Internal Demand - The report highlights that external demand has exceeded expectations, driven by robust overseas demand and export activities. In contrast, internal demand is showing signs of weakening, particularly in real estate sales growth, which has seen a marginal decline [2] Policy Expectations - The marginal weakening of internal demand data has led to increased expectations for short-term growth stabilization policies. The People's Bank of China is expected to lower the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) in May, further supporting a loose monetary policy [2] Market Outlook - The current market is characterized by a range-bound consolidation pattern. The report suggests that the market's upward potential is contingent on the strength of economic recovery, while the downside risk remains manageable under supportive policies [2] Sector Focus for Q2 - The report recommends focusing on sectors benefiting from external demand and growth themes, specifically: 1. Industries benefiting from export growth and inventory replenishment, such as chemicals and shipping 2. Growth sectors with favorable trends and improved risk appetite, including AI, robotics, semiconductors, and self-sufficiency initiatives [2]