证券研究报告 宏观 关税对美国 5 月 CPI 传导尚不显著 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 12 日│中国内地 动态点评 虽然 5 月通胀不及预期，但考虑到 5 月新增非农就业只是温和放缓，且联 储对关税推高通胀的担忧难以完全消除，维持联储 9 月后可能"预防性"降 息 2 次的预测（参见《不轻松的经济"软着陆"》，2025/6/3）。5 月通胀虽然 不及预期，但高频数据显示，关税对超市商品价格仍然在持续传导（图表 8-图表 9），我们预计随着部分分项扰动的消退，核心通胀未来将有所回升。 但由于服务分项能够提供一定对冲，预计通胀回升较为温和。往前看，随着 移民冲击的加大以及经济动能的放缓，我们预计，新增非农就业 6 月后进一 步明显走弱的风险上升，维持联储可能在 9-12 月"预防性"降息 2 次的判断。 风险提示：关税对美国国内价格影响不及预期；美国金融条件大幅收紧。 研究员 易峘 evayi@htsc.com SFC No. AMH263 研究员 胡李鹏，PhD SAC No. S0570525010001 SFC No. BWA860 hulipeng@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1 ...

证券研究报告 宏观 5 月全球 PMI：关税暂缓推动订单反弹 +(86) 10 6321 1166 研究员 陈玮 SAC No. S0570524030003 SFC No. BVH374 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 12 日│中国内地 动态点评 研究员 易峘 evayi@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 研究员 胡李鹏，PhD SAC No. S0570525010001 SFC No. BWA860 hulipeng@htsc.com 联系人 赵文瑄 SAC No. S0570124030017 zhaowenxuan@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 5 月全球 PMI 走势概述：服务业景气度上行带动 5 月全球综合 PMI 上行 0.4pp 至 51.2。制造业 PMI：大部分国家制造业 PMI 均有所改善；美国 Markit 和 ISM 制造业 PMI 走势分化，后者有所回落；欧元区则延续年初以来回升 的趋势；从绝对水平看，印度>美国 Markit>拉美>俄罗斯>欧元区=日本>东 盟>中国台湾地区>英国。服务业 PMI：全球服务业 PMI 景气度回升，主要 ...

证券研究报告 策略 TMT 和先进制造景气回升 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 12 日│中国内地 策略月报 核心观点 我们的中观景气模型显示，5 月全行业景气指数小幅回落，但下行斜率放缓。 分板块看，大金融、TMT、先进制造景气明显回升，景气改善或有一定持续 性的品种包括：1）TMT：AI 产业趋势方兴未艾，元件-存储链、通信设备、 游戏（新增）景气爬坡，软件景气筑底；2）制造：部分先进制造产能出清 或准出清，且需求有企稳迹象，如通用、自动化景气爬坡，风电、光伏、航 空装备景气回升；3）消费：新消费和大众品率先改善，美护、饰品（新增） 景气爬坡，啤酒（新增）、调味品、乳制品景气回升；4）其它：医药（投融 资周期回暖）、保险（新增）、电力（新增）景气回升，贵金属维持高位。 TMT：元件-存储链、通信设备、游戏景气爬坡，软件景气筑底 AI Agent 渗透率处于"奇点时刻"，海外 AI 资本开支有韧性，大模型迭代等 产业催化密集：1）元件-存储链：上游 PCB 台股 4 月营收同比增速回升； 中游 DXI 指数同比增速连续 3 个月回升，DRAM 价格同比降幅收窄，存储 周期有企稳回升迹象；2）通信设备：4 月 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight" [6] Core Views - Multiple automakers have committed to shortening payment terms to within 60 days, which is expected to improve the automotive supply chain ecosystem [1] - The shortening of payment terms is anticipated to alleviate concerns regarding automakers' repayment capabilities and promote healthy industry development [1] - The average cash turnover rates for components, complete vehicles, and dealers in 2024 are projected to be 4.5, 2.2, and 8.9 respectively, with the new payment terms expected to enhance cash flow [1] - The reduction in payment terms aligns with international standards, potentially benefiting Chinese brands in overseas markets [2] - Price competition has paused, leading to a narrowing of discount rates, which is favorable for healthy competition within the industry [2] Summary by Sections Section 1: Impact of Shortened Payment Terms - The adjustment to a 60-day payment term is expected to have limited impact on the cash flow of complete vehicle manufacturers, as many currently operate with payment terms exceeding 110 days [2] - The new terms are expected to enhance the cash turnover ability and cash levels of upstream component manufacturers, with an estimated increase in cash funds of approximately 32 billion yuan (+37%) if accounts receivable turnover improves to 6 [3] Section 2: Export Growth of Domestic Passenger Vehicles - Domestic brands are leading in competitiveness within the market, driving foreign brands out [4] - In 2024, market shares for domestic brands in various price segments are projected to be 80%, 48%, and 42% respectively, with year-on-year increases of 7, 14, and 4 percentage points [4] - In May, domestic brand exports reached 375,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 18% and a month-on-month increase of 10% [4] - The global market is viewed as a significant growth opportunity for Chinese automakers, with a recommendation to focus on industry leaders with global competitiveness [4]

Macro Insights - The US May CPI data was weaker than expected, with core CPI month-on-month declining from 0.24% in April to 0.13%, below the Bloomberg consensus of 0.3%. Year-on-year core CPI remained flat at 2.8%, also below the expected 2.9% [2][3] - The global manufacturing PMI in May showed a decline, but tariff reductions led to improvements in manufacturing PMI in several regions, including the Eurozone and ASEAN [3] Industry Trends - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and advanced manufacturing sectors are showing signs of recovery, with AI trends driving growth in components, storage chains, and communication devices [4] - The automotive industry is experiencing a positive shift as major companies like BYD and Geely commit to shortening supplier payment terms to within 60 days, which is expected to enhance market health [5] - The electronics sector is facing an "innovator's dilemma," with Apple investing heavily in R&D but struggling to close the gap with competitors in AI technology [8] Company Analysis - XGIMI Technology (极米科技) is covered for the first time with a "Buy" rating and a target price of 150.0 CNY, supported by its leading self-research capabilities and strong R&D investment [9][12] - Mingyang Smart Energy (明阳智能) is positioned as a leader in the domestic offshore wind market, with expectations for significant growth in offshore wind shipments, driving profitability recovery [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the consumer electronics industry [5] Core Insights - The technology industry is facing three major "innovator's dilemmas" as highlighted by the recent WWDC 2025 event held by Apple, which include limitations in foundational capabilities, declining R&D efficiency among industry leaders, and privacy concerns hindering AI development [1][2][3] Summary by Sections Innovator's Dilemma 1: Insufficient Edge Capabilities - The lack of killer AI applications on mobile devices is attributed to the immaturity of foundational capabilities such as chip computing power, data accessibility, and operating system capabilities [2] - Apple's recent WWDC showcased new features but failed to meet market expectations, indicating a lag in edge AI application development [2] Innovator's Dilemma 2: Declining R&D Efficiency - Apple's R&D expenditure for FY24 reached $31.4 billion, a 5% increase year-on-year, yet the company has struggled to close the gap with competitors like Google and OpenAI in AI advancements [3] - The report notes that while Apple is a leader in R&D spending, its efficiency has declined, contrasting with companies like Xiaomi and Lenovo, which maintain higher R&D efficiency relative to their investment [3] Innovator's Dilemma 3: Privacy Protection as a Constraint - Apple's commitment to user privacy is seen as a double-edged sword, as it limits the company's ability to invest in public cloud AI capabilities, resulting in a significant lag behind competitors [4] - The report suggests that while other companies may face similar privacy challenges, their more lenient policies could facilitate faster AI advancements [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" for both Real Estate Development and Real Estate Services [6]. Core Insights - The U.S. housing market is experiencing a mixed performance between new and existing homes, with new home sales showing improvement while existing home sales continue to decline [1][2]. - Housing affordability remains low, and the recovery of the U.S. housing market faces uncertainties due to high prices and interest rates [1][4]. - The inventory of existing homes has increased, alleviating some pressure, but this has not led to a decrease in home prices [1][3]. Summary by Sections New Home Sales - In April, new home sales reached 62,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 10.9% and month-on-month growth of 3.3% [2]. - The median price for new homes was $407,000, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2.0% but a month-on-month increase of 0.9% [3]. Existing Home Sales - Existing home sales totaled 333,000 units in April, reflecting a decline of 2.4% year-on-year and a slight decrease of 0.5% month-on-month [2]. - The existing home sales contract index was 71.3, down 6.3% month-on-month, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [2]. Inventory and Prices - As of April, the inventory of new homes was 497,000 units, and existing homes stood at 1,450,000 units, representing increases of 3.1% and 27.2% respectively compared to the end of 2024 [3]. - The median price for existing homes was $414,000, with year-on-year growth of 1.8% and month-on-month growth of 2.7% [3]. Mortgage Rates - The average 30-year mortgage rate in May was 6.82%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 7 basis points, and is at the 87th percentile since 2000 [4]. - The outlook for mortgage rates remains uncertain, with expectations that they will stay high in the short term due to economic resilience and inflation concerns [4].

Group 1: Communication Industry - Broadcom's CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) has made significant progress, launching a single-channel 200G CPO product series in May and delivering the Tomahawk 6 (TH6) switch chip in June, which supports both conventional and CPO versions [2] - The report anticipates that technology giants like Broadcom and NVIDIA will accelerate the advancement of CPO technology, fostering a mature ecosystem within the industry [2] - The outlook for the CPO industry is positive, with opportunities expected for related passive optical devices, optical chips, and optical engines, recommending companies such as Tai Chen Guang and Tianfu Communication, while suggesting to pay attention to Zhongji Xuchuang and New Yi Sheng [2] Group 2: Multi-Financial Industry - In May, the ETF market saw a total asset scale increase of 1.6%, with stock ETFs rising by 0.9%, indicating a stable growth trend despite market fluctuations [3] - Bond funds reached a record high with a net asset value of 284.1 billion, growing by 15% month-on-month, and their market share increased by 0.8 percentage points to 6.9% [3] - The report highlights the implementation of the "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Public Funds," which aims to enhance the scale and proportion of equity investments in public funds, suggesting that stock ETFs may experience rapid growth opportunities [3] Group 3: Electronics and Computing Industry - The outdoor sports trend and the rapid growth of social media content are driving the transition of action cameras and panoramic cameras from niche products to mainstream creative tools for outdoor enthusiasts and short video users [4] - Key players in this emerging market include Ying Shi Innovation, GoPro, and DJI, with the industry expected to evolve towards "all-in-one" personal imaging devices [4] - Competition is shifting from hardware specifications to multi-dimensional competition involving AI, software ecosystems, and differentiated innovation capabilities [4] Group 4: Financial Engineering - The LLM-FADT strategy, based on the open-source model Qwen3-8b, has shown significant improvement over the previous BERT-FADT strategy, with annualized excess returns of 12.16% for the LLM-FADT Top25 CSI 300 index combination and 18.53% for the LLM-FADT healthcare sector combination [6] - The report emphasizes the effectiveness of the enhanced strategy in stock selection, particularly in the context of the healthcare sector [6] Group 5: Transportation Industry - The aviation sector is expected to perform well due to strong demand during the summer travel season and favorable oil exchange rates, with a long-term supply growth slowdown improving supply-demand dynamics [11] - The report recommends high-dividend Hong Kong road stocks, highlighting the stability of the road sector's performance and suggesting a focus on companies like China National Aviation and China Eastern Airlines [11] - The easing of tariffs has significantly boosted shipping rates, although market expectations may have already priced this in, leading to increased volatility in the sector [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the communication equipment manufacturing sector [7]. Core Viewpoints - The CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) industry is expected to see significant advancements, particularly with Broadcom's recent developments, including the launch of a single-channel 200G CPO product series and the delivery of the Tomahawk 6 (TH6) switch chip [1][2]. - Broadcom is recognized as a pioneer in the CPO industry, with its CPO solutions focusing on switch core components rather than complete systems, differentiating it from competitors like NVIDIA [2][3]. - The TH6 chip, which supports both conventional electrical switches and CPO solutions, is noted for its high bandwidth capabilities, potentially reaching 200G per channel [3][4]. Summary by Sections CPO Industry Progress - Broadcom's CPO technology is advancing rapidly, with the TH6 chip being the first single-chip solution to achieve 102.4T bandwidth, supporting both electrical and CPO versions [3]. - The TH6 CPO solution may require 16 optical engines, doubling the number from the previous TH5 model, while maintaining a single optical engine rate of 6.4T [3]. Market Opportunities - The report expresses optimism about the CPO industry's future, highlighting potential growth for related companies in optical passive devices, optical chips, and optical engine manufacturers. Recommended companies include Taiyuan Optics and Tianfu Communication, with additional companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng suggested for attention [1][5]. Company Recommendations - The report provides specific stock recommendations with target prices and ratings: - Zhongji Xuchuang (300308 CH): Buy, target price 164.78 [10][16] - Xinyi Sheng (300502 CH): Buy, target price 128.76 [10][16] - Tianfu Communication (300394 CH): Buy, target price 119.12 [10][16] - Taiyuan Optics (300570 CH): Overweight, target price 99.01 [10][16] - Huagong Technology (000988 CH): Buy, target price 49.62 [10][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the consumer electronics sector, specifically for action cameras and panoramic cameras [6]. Core Insights - The action camera and panoramic camera industry is experiencing high growth, transitioning from niche markets to emerging blue oceans, driven by the rise of outdoor activities, rapid growth of social media content, and the maturation of VR/AR technologies [1][2]. - Major players in the industry include Insta360, GoPro, and DJI, with competition shifting from hardware specifications to AI, software ecosystems, and differentiated innovation capabilities [1][4]. Market Space - The market for action cameras and panoramic cameras is evolving from a niche market to a broad blue ocean, characterized by new consumption attributes such as experience-driven, personalization, and user-generated content [2][33]. - The global action camera market size was 31.44 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach 51.35 billion by 2027, with a CAGR of 13.0% [2][36]. - The global panoramic camera market size was 5.03 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow to 7.85 billion by 2027, with a CAGR of 11.8% [2][39]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape for action cameras has shifted from a single dominant player (GoPro) to a multi-strong competition, with DJI and Insta360 emerging as key players [3]. - In the panoramic camera segment, Insta360 holds a dominant market share of 67.2% in 2023, followed by Ricoh and GoPro [3]. Future Trends - The future of the industry is expected to focus on the integration of AI, software ecosystems, and differentiated innovation capabilities, moving away from hardware-centric competition [4][5]. - The trend towards "all-in-one" personal imaging devices is anticipated, with the boundaries between action cameras and panoramic cameras becoming increasingly blurred [4]. User Profiles - Action cameras primarily target "adventurous players" such as extreme sports enthusiasts and outdoor explorers, while panoramic cameras appeal to "creative pioneers" including content creators and VR content producers [22][24].