亚信安全(688225) 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 08 日 并购驱动高增长，AI 原生筑壁垒 ——亚信安全 2024 年报&2025Q1 点评 事件： 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 软件开发 点评： ❑ 业绩符合预期，并购亚信科技实现营收和利润增厚 公司 2024 年营收和业绩表现符合市场预期，公司通过并购亚信科技实现了营收 和利润的显著增厚，实现扭亏为盈。分业务来看，公司 2024 年网络安全业务实 现营收收入 17.10 亿元，同比增长 6.37%，毛利率达到 61.35%，归母净利润-0.91 亿元，亏损大幅缩窄，体现内生业务提质增效；数智业务作为新增板块，并表贡 献 18.85 亿元收入，1 亿元归母净利润，成为营收和业绩扩张的核心驱动力。 ❑ 网安业务收入结构持续优化，现金流率先实现转正 公司主业网络安全业务呈现结构优化与效率提升的双重特征。具体而言，标准化 产品营收同比增长 7.4%，在网安业务收入占比提升至 47.3%，并拉动网安业务 毛利率同比提升 13.53pcts 至 61.35%；解决方案类业务与安全服务业务在网安业 务收入占比分别为 37.1%和 15.6%，安全服务业务占 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure due to a decline in gross margin and impairment provisions, with a revenue of 7.757 billion yuan in 2024, down 4.71% year-over-year, and a net profit of 315 million yuan, down 37.90% year-over-year [1] - The data center business is experiencing rapid growth, with revenue of 3.152 billion yuan in 2024, up 14.07% year-over-year, contributing 40.63% to total revenue [3] - The company is actively innovating in data center products and solutions, with a significant increase in orders in 2025, particularly in AI computing scenarios [4] - The smart energy business has shown a significant improvement in profitability, with a gross margin increase of 6.82 percentage points [6] - The renewable energy sector is steadily developing, with a revenue of 3.608 billion yuan in 2024, despite a year-over-year decline of 15.98% [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 7.757 billion yuan and a net profit of 315 million yuan, with a gross margin of 25.20% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.216 billion yuan, up 2.73% year-over-year, and a net profit of 69 million yuan, down 6.26% year-over-year [2] Data Center Business - The data center business generated revenue of 3.152 billion yuan in 2024, with IDC services and data center products contributing 1.231 billion yuan and 1.921 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The company has introduced innovative products for AI computing and has secured numerous orders from major internet companies [4][5] Smart Energy Business - The smart energy segment reported revenue of 922 million yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 41.06%, reflecting a significant improvement in profitability [6] Renewable Energy Business - The renewable energy segment generated revenue of 3.608 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 16.78% [7] - The company has launched several innovative products and completed significant projects in the renewable energy sector [12] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to see a rebound in net profit, with forecasts of 654 million yuan in 2025, 814 million yuan in 2026, and 988 million yuan in 2027 [13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Insights - The company has experienced rapid growth in Q1 2025, with a revenue increase of 40.5% year-on-year, reaching 0.84 billion yuan, while the net profit rose by 35.9% to 0.14 billion yuan [1][6] - The company is transitioning to a dual-engine model focusing on telecommunications and data communication, leveraging opportunities in the AI-driven data center market [1][2] - The company has successfully launched CW laser chips for AI data centers, achieving significant sales volume and establishing a strong foothold in the high-power laser market [2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 74.6%, but a net loss of 0.06 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 131.5% [1] - The gross margin for 2024 was 33.32%, down by 8.56 percentage points, while the net margin was -2.43%, down by 15.92 percentage points [1] - The company’s R&D expenditure in 2024 was 54.52 million yuan, an increase of 76.17% year-on-year, indicating a strong commitment to innovation [5] Business Segments - The data communication segment achieved a revenue of 48.04 million yuan in 2024, a staggering increase of 919% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 71.04% [2] - The telecommunications segment generated a revenue of 202 million yuan in 2024, up by 52% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 24.62% [4] - The company has optimized its product structure in the telecommunications sector, focusing on 10G EML products and successfully shipping next-generation 25G/50G PON optical chips [4] Market Outlook - The market for silicon photonic chips is projected to grow significantly, with sales expected to rise from 800 million USD in 2023 to over 3 billion USD by 2029 [3] - The penetration rate of silicon photonics in the 400G and above high-speed data communication optical module market is anticipated to reach 48% by 2028, indicating a substantial market opportunity [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.04 billion yuan, 1.6 billion yuan, and 2.48 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a projected PE ratio of 109X for 2025 [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The company is experiencing a structural breakthrough through strategic focus and technological innovation, with significant growth in data security, domestic innovation, and Managed Security Services (MSS) despite overall revenue pressure [2] - Cost reduction measures have led to a significant improvement in operational quality, with a 45.01% reduction in net loss year-on-year, and the company achieved positive operating cash flow for the first time since 2021 [3] - AI technology is being leveraged to enhance both product efficiency and management processes, contributing to a notable increase in revenue from AI-related products [4] Revenue Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 2.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.87%, with a net loss of 198 million yuan [7] - For Q4 2024, revenue was 898 million yuan, down 6.7% year-on-year, while the net profit was 138 million yuan, a decline of 21.38% [7] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 311 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, with a net loss of 111 million yuan [7] Business Segment Performance - The company's data security business saw new product contract amounts increase by over 40%, with specific products like API security and network DLP growing by 200% and 150% respectively [8] - The domestic innovation business benefited from accelerated domestic substitution, with revenue increasing by 78% [8] - The MSS business, empowered by AI, experienced a 25% revenue growth [8] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.15 billion, 2.27 billion, and 2.42 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits expected to reach 47.25 million, 125.80 million, and 171.55 million yuan [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The company's performance in 2024 met market expectations, with significant revenue and profit growth driven by the acquisition of AsiaInfo Technology, resulting in a turnaround from loss to profit [2] - The network security business achieved revenue of 1.71 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.37%, with a gross margin of 61.35%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was -91 million yuan, indicating a substantial reduction in losses, reflecting improvements in internal business quality and efficiency [2] - The newly added digital intelligence business contributed 1.885 billion yuan in revenue and 100 million yuan in net profit, becoming a core driver for revenue and performance expansion [2] - The revenue structure of the network security business continues to optimize, with standardized product revenue growing by 7.4%, increasing its share to 47.3% of total network security revenue, which in turn improved the gross margin by 13.53 percentage points to 61.35% [3] - The company has achieved positive cash flow in its network security business, with a net operating cash flow increase of 425 million yuan year-on-year, reflecting effective receivables management and cost control [3] - The company is strategically positioned in high-barrier sectors such as telecommunications and finance, maintaining a leading market share in terminal security and ranking among the top three in cloud host security [3] - The company is actively following AI trends, integrating AI technology with security scenarios, and has established a dual-engine model of "Security + Digital Intelligence" [4] - The financial forecast for 2025-2027 estimates revenues of 8.468 billion, 9.313 billion, and 10.534 billion yuan, with net profits of 102 million, 153 million, and 215 million yuan respectively, reflecting a long-term growth potential driven by structural and efficiency improvements in the network security business and AI integration [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.154 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.70%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 74.15 million yuan, up 10.52% year-on-year. However, in Q4 2024, revenue decreased by 6.83% year-on-year to 417 million yuan, while net profit increased by 9.71% to 37.4 million yuan. In Q1 2025, revenue dropped by 32.09% year-on-year to 117 million yuan, resulting in a net loss of 25.53 million yuan due to seasonal factors and order execution cycles [1][6] Summary by Sections Transportation Sector - In 2024, the company's revenue from the transportation sector reached 701 million yuan, accounting for 61% of total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 5.68% and a gross margin of 55.63%, up 9.2 percentage points. The total fixed asset investment in railways increased by 11.3% year-on-year, reaching a historical high. The China National Railway Group plans to put into operation 2,600 kilometers of new lines in 2025, a 160% increase compared to 2024. The company made significant progress in international market expansion, winning multiple overseas railway projects worth millions [2] Government and Defense Market - Revenue from the government and defense market was 194 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 32.49%. In contrast, revenue from the financial and other sectors increased by 49.47% to 259 million yuan. The overall revenue decline was attributed to short-term market pressures in the domestic government and defense sectors. However, with ongoing government debt resolution and personnel adjustments in defense, stability is expected in the future. The company is also expanding its core capabilities into emerging fields such as smart civil aviation, digital energy, and intelligent finance, successfully cultivating multiple growth points and diversifying its revenue structure [3] 5G-R Development - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is steadily advancing the 5G-R initiative, with the company successfully passing the 5G-R circular track test, laying a solid foundation for subsequent field testing. In April 2025, the Ministry approved the 5G-R field test frequency, which will accelerate the implementation of 5G-R under high-speed and heavy-load conditions [4] AI and Railway Integration - The digital transformation of the railway industry presents significant market opportunities for the company. In 2024, the company won several multi-million yuan AI application projects, including a data intelligence analysis system based on AI language models and a centralized management cloud platform for video monitoring. In February 2025, the company collaborated with Huawei to complete the full-stack localization deployment of the DeepSeek model, creating intelligent solutions for the railway industry [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's transportation business remains stable, but there is uncertainty regarding revenue and orders in the government and defense sectors. The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 83 million, 108 million, and 147 million yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 11%, 31%, and 36%. The corresponding P/E ratios for these years are projected to be 58, 45, and 33 times [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 353 million yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 13%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -124 million yuan. In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 126 million yuan, a significant increase of 84% year-on-year, and a net profit of 13 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [1][5] - The satellite business has become a significant revenue source for the company, with deep involvement in the construction of the Qianfan satellite constellation. The company has launched 90 satellites and plans to enhance its launch capacity and explore reusable rocket technology to reduce costs [2][3] - The company has established strong relationships with its top two clients in the satellite sector, which together account for 43% of its revenue. It is focusing on developing customized low-power products and has made significant progress in satellite communication technology [3] - The defense information technology sector is expected to grow, with the company’s military communication business anticipated to recover. The Chinese defense budget is projected to reach 1.67 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 7.2% increase [4] - The company is actively investing in research and development, particularly in the unmanned communication field, and has made progress in 5G and terminal communication projects [4] Financial Summary - The company forecasts net profits of 105 million yuan, 246 million yuan, and 446 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a projected PE ratio of 129 for 2025 [5][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [8] Core Views - The company's revenue met expectations, but financial expenses temporarily suppressed profit release. The company achieved an operating income of 79.024 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.22%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.572 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.23% [1][6] - The subsidiary, New H3C, benefited from domestic AI infrastructure, with its revenue growing by 6.04% to 55.074 billion yuan in 2024, and a significant increase of 26.07% in Q1 2025 [2] - The company experienced a substantial increase in inventory and contract liabilities, indicating potential overstocking of AI GPU chips, which may lead to exceeding expectations in AI server market share and profitability [3] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported an operating income of 20.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.25%, but a net profit decrease of 15.75% [1] - Financial expenses rose significantly due to the acquisition of New H3C, with Q1 2025 financial expenses reaching 386 million yuan, an increase of 310 million yuan from Q1 2024 [4] - The company forecasts net profits of 2.14 billion yuan, 2.81 billion yuan, and 3.13 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 34, 26, and 23 [6] Strategic Developments - The company is advancing its H-share listing, which may alleviate financial pressure and support global expansion efforts [5] - New H3C's international business grew by 32% in 2024 and 72% in Q1 2025, indicating strong growth potential in overseas markets [5]

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 联储且行且看，"滞胀"风险增加 ──5 月美联储议息会议传递的信号 核心观点 本月美联储对通胀和就业市场的风险评估均有所上行，认为失业率和通胀双双走高的 滞胀风险正在逐步增加。相机抉择的模式下整体政策立场中性。展望未来： 降息方面，预计年内联储整体仍将保持较强政策定力，潜在的"滞胀"趋势下，我们 认为联储的政策重心或将聚焦于通胀。主要原因在于经济虽有下行压力但劳动力供给 端约束或使得失业率仍在中性目标附近。在此背景下，我们预计联储将保持政策定力， 在下半年逐季降息，每次 25BP。但 6 月议息会议，尤其是对等关税明朗化以前能否降 息存在较强不确定性。 数量型政策方面，预计金融稳定将是下半年联储政策。当前美股、美债均存在一定流 动性压力，一旦因特朗普的政策反复导致外资撤离继而引发美国资产大幅波动，则联 储的缩表可能暂停。如果 10 年美债利率再次冲击 5%，不排除联储启动紧急购债稳定 市场。 ❑ "滞胀"风险评估增加，政策路径且行且看 利率区间方面，美联储按兵不动符合会前市场定价，联邦基金目标利率维持在 4. 25%-4. 50%区间；议息声明中，相较 1 月联储 ...

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 08 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 05 月 08 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要观点 【浙商宏观 李超/费瑾】宏观专题研究：货币政策再宽松驱动股债双牛——20250507 3、资金 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大势：5 月 7 日上证指数上涨 0.8%，沪深 300 上涨 0.61%，科创 50 上涨 0.36%，中证 1000 上涨 0.14%，创业板指 上涨 0.51%，恒生指数上涨 0.13%。 行业：5 月 7 日表现最好的行业分别是国防军工（+3.7%)、银行（+1.49%)、基础化工（+1.15%)、房地产（+1.06%)、 石油石化（+0.91%)，表现最差的行业分别是传媒（-0.56%)、计算机（-0.42%)、电子（-0.37%)、社会服务（-0.24%)、 医药生物（-0.12%)。 资金：5 月 7 日全 A 总成交额为 15051 亿元，南下资金净 ...