证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 24 日 如何看待下一阶段关税走向 ——债市专题研究 核心观点 美国关税谈判或由高压威胁转为软化和谈，特朗普政府具有急于达成首份关税贸易协 定的内在动机。下一阶段中美贸易摩擦事态升级或达成协议的可能性均较为有限，最 早或于上半年得见和谈信号，2025 年内存在中美达成关税贸易协定的潜在路径。 ❑ 关税谈判或由高压威胁转向软化和谈 近期美国国内两大争端或值得关注，一是纳瓦罗与贝森特之争，对等关税暂停实 施被认为是以贝森特为代表的谈判派的胜利；二是特朗普与鲍威尔之争，特朗普 正面回应并不寻求解除鲍威尔职务，但仍重申对鲍威尔的批评。我们认为上述争 端所传达出的核心思想或是美国在关税政策的高压威胁阶段已逐步过去，国内压 力驱动下美国或将更为迫切地寻求达成关税谈判。一方面对等关税政策对美股市 场造成沉重打击，市场情绪仍较为低迷；另一方面受通胀预期高企、美国政府债 务可持续问题、美债基差交易逆转等因素影响，美债风险仍待解决。近期美股美 债表现承压对美元汇率形成直接压力，加之特朗普关税政策对国际贸易体系的直 接挑战，或进一 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 848 million (up 2% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 89 million (up 3% year-on-year) in Q1 2025, indicating stable growth despite a high base from the previous year [1] - The revenue growth is primarily driven by the continuous expansion of the film business, while the printing business faces pricing pressure due to weak downstream demand and intensified competition [2][3] - The company is actively expanding its production capacity and has announced investments in new functional film materials projects, which are expected to enhance its market competitiveness and support long-term revenue growth [3] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 21.30%, a decrease of 0.76 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to pricing pressures in the printing business and a higher proportion of lower-margin film products [4] - The company has improved its cash flow management, with net cash flow from operating activities increasing by 62.26% year-on-year, indicating enhanced sales collection capabilities [4] Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.89 billion, 4.29 billion, and 4.76 billion in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, representing growth rates of 10.34%, 10.28%, and 10.93% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 508 million, 562 million, and 631 million in the same years, with growth rates of 8.7%, 10.54%, and 12.24% respectively [5] - The current P/E ratios are projected to be 13.77X, 12.46X, and 11.10X for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation for investors [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.67 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 15%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 197 million yuan, up 12% year-on-year [1][2] - The company's gross margin improved to 24%, an increase of 0.14 percentage points year-on-year and 2.85 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - The tools and home appliances segment showed robust growth, while the smart automotive and robotics segments maintained high growth rates [1][2] - The digital energy business experienced a decline in revenue due to technological upgrades and product structure adjustments [2] - The robotics business saw rapid growth in various products, including lawn mowers and service robots, with significant market breakthroughs in commercial cooking machines [2] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 10.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%, and a net profit of 671 million yuan, up 30% year-on-year [7] - The revenue structure is as follows: tools and home appliances account for 76%, digital energy and smart automotive for 20%, and robotics for 4% [7] - The company aims for revenue targets of 11.6 billion yuan, 13.8 billion yuan, and 16 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profit targets of 800 million yuan, 960 million yuan, and 1.15 billion yuan [7] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 19, 15, and 12 respectively, indicating a low valuation with high growth potential [7] Market Position - The company is positioned as a leader in smart controllers in China, with its hollow cup motors for humanoid robots expected to open new market opportunities [7] - The company has established a leading position in the hollow cup motor market, with mass production capabilities and a strong technical foundation [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6] Core Views - The company's short-term performance is under pressure, but there is an expectation for accelerated growth in the humanoid robot sector following a strategic partnership with Xingdong Jiyuan [1][2] - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 505 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, while net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline by 30.3% to 17 million yuan [1] - The humanoid robot revenue in 2024 is anticipated to be 816,000 yuan, with significant clients including Xingdong Jiyuan and Bosch [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company expects revenue of 505 million yuan, with a growth rate of 18%, and a net profit of 17 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 30% [5] - The first quarter of 2025 shows revenue of 117 million yuan, an 18.2% increase year-on-year, but net profit is down 36% to 3 million yuan [1] - The projected net profits for 2025 to 2027 are 24 million, 68 million, and 102 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 42%, 186%, and 49% [4][5]

证券研究报告 心中的「涨」声② ——玉米 2025年4月24日 行业评级：看好 | 分析师 | 钟凯锋 | | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | Zhongkaifeng@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230524050002 | | 分析师 | 张心怡 | | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | Zhangxinyi@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230524020002 | 摘要 ➢ 1、市场背景 美国、中国、巴西、阿根廷是全球玉米总产量最高的4个国家，其中美国是全球第一大玉米产国，占比32%，也是 全球第一大出口国。近年来，我国玉米生产总体呈稳定增长态势。进口量先增后减，2024年进口依赖度降至1.6%。 玉米消费需求主要包括饲用、工业用、食用、种用及其它。其中，饲料消费是玉米最大的消费去向，近年来一直 呈刚性增长。 ➢ 2、供需由宽松走向紧张 2025年，全球玉米供需收紧，国内供应压力同比或将减轻；养殖存栏量预期增加，或带动饲料消费刚性增长；内 需政策将促进玉米深加工行业消费，国内玉米供需将呈偏紧趋势，价格重心有望抬升。 ➢ 3、风险提示： 极端天 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Bullish" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - In 2025, the global corn supply - demand situation will tighten, and the domestic supply pressure may ease year - on - year. The expected increase in livestock inventory may drive the rigid growth of feed consumption, and domestic demand policies will boost the consumption of the corn deep - processing industry. The domestic corn supply - demand will be in a tight trend, and the price center is expected to rise [5] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Background - The United States, China, Brazil, and Argentina are the top four corn - producing countries in the world, with the US accounting for 32% of global production and being the largest exporter. China's corn production has shown a stable growth trend. In 2024, the import dependence dropped to 1.6%. Corn consumption mainly includes feed, industrial, food, seed, and other uses, with feed consumption being the largest and showing rigid growth [4] - China's corn industry chain includes planting, processing, circulation, and consumption. Feed and starch processing are at the core of the industry chain [13] - Global corn supply is concentrated in a few countries. The US and China are the top two producers, accounting for 32% and 23% respectively. The top four exporters are the US, Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine, with their combined exports accounting for nearly 70% of the global total in 2023/24 [16] - Global corn is concentrated in supply every six months. The growth cycles of China and the US in the Northern Hemisphere are similar, while Brazil in the Southern Hemisphere has two planting seasons [23] - The US and China are the largest corn consumers, with a combined consumption of over half of the global total in 2023/24. China's average annual growth rate of corn demand in the past decade was 4.3%, higher than the US's 0.6% [29] - Feed consumption is the largest use of corn, with a global consumption of 780 million tons in 2024, accounting for 63% of the total. The US is the largest in industrial consumption [34] - In China, corn planting is concentrated in the Northeast, North, and Southwest regions, with different planting patterns and acreage proportions in different areas [35][37] - China's corn production has been growing steadily. The planting area increased from 620 million mu to 670 million mu from 2020 - 2024, and the output increased from 261 million tons to 295 million tons. The import volume first increased and then decreased, with the import dependence dropping to 1.6% in 2024 [42] 3.2 Supply Decrease and Demand Increase - **Domestic Old - crop Corn**: The supply pressure has been reduced. The output increased slightly by 2.1% to 295 million tons in 2024/25. The import decreased by 49% to 1.377 million tons. The inventory is expected to drop by 87% to 230,000 tons, and the stock - to - use ratio decreased by 5 pct to 0.8% [49] - **Global Old - crop Corn**: The stock - to - use ratio decreased year - on - year. The estimated output (excluding China) in 2024/25 was adjusted up by 930,000 tons to 920 million tons, a 2.2% decrease. The ending inventory decreased by 16.1% to 86.47 million tons, and the stock - to - use ratio dropped by 0.2 pct to 9.3%. The US corn export volume was adjusted up by 3 million tons to 65 million tons [55] - **Domestic New - crop Corn**: The supply growth has slowed down. The planting enthusiasm may be affected due to weak prices and reduced profits in 2024. The import volume is expected to decrease, with the predicted import volume in 2024/2025 being adjusted down by 2 million tons to 7 million tons [58][61] - **Demand**: Feed demand is expected to be supported by the increase in the number of sows and good pig - raising profits. Deep - processing demand is currently mainly for rigid needs, and domestic demand expansion policies are expected to boost it [66]

丰立智能(301368) 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 24 日 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 通用设备 业绩短期承压，与星动纪元签战略合作、人形机器人领域加速 ——丰立智能点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 2024 年&2025Q1 业绩：短期承压，期待人形机器人领域加速打开空间 1）2024 年业绩：营收 5.05 亿元，同比增长 17.6%；归母净利润 0.17 亿元，同 比下滑 30.3%。毛利率 14.9%，同比-2.2pct；净利率 3.3%，同比-2.3pct。 收入结构——老业务：智能家居：2.3 亿元、毛利率 26.2%；气动工具：1.2 亿 元、毛利率 13.1%；新业务：减速机：1.2 亿元、毛利率 2.1%；新能源传动： 0.29 亿元、毛利率-12.4%。 2）2025 年一季报业绩：营收 1.17 亿元，同比增长 18.2%；归母净利润 0.03 亿 元，同比下滑 36%。毛利率 12.5%，同比+0.2pct；净利率 2.5%，同比-2.1pct。 3）人形机器人加速突破：2024 年公司实现人形机器人收入 81.6 万元，开发 的客户包括星动纪元、宇树、三花等。2025 年 Q1， ...

证券研究报告 机构持仓比例提升， AI板块增持明显 —— 2025年Q1计算机行业持仓分析 行业评级：看好 2025年4月22日 分析师 刘雯蜀 邮箱 liuwenshu03@stocke.com.cn 证书编号 S1230523020002 分析师 叶光亮 邮箱 yeguangliang@stocke.com.cn 证书编号 S1230524080010 2025年Q1计算机行业机构持仓情况总结 资料来源：Wind、浙商证券研究所；统计范围：重仓持股（汇总）-公募基金-全部基金，根据申万一级行业指数（2021）分类 2 1、行业持仓比例提高，但仍处于低位水平 ➢ 2025Q1计算机行业重仓股配置比例为3.10%， 环比上升0.35Pcts，行业配置比例是向上趋势； ➢ 2025Q1行业持仓比例依然是较低水平，低于行业标准配置比例1.44Pcts，与行业标配比例的差距缩小。 2、重仓股规模增加，行业持仓集中度下降 ➢ 2025Q1计算机行业重仓股规模为939亿元，较24Q4季度重仓股规模增加126亿元，环比上升15.55%。 ➢ 前十大重仓股规模合计546亿元，占行业整体持仓规模比重为58.18%，较2024 ...

Market Overview - On April 23, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.1%, while the CSI 300 rose by 0.08%. The STAR Market 50 fell by 0.35%, the CSI 1000 increased by 0.59%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 1.08%. The Hang Seng Index saw a gain of 2.37% [4] - The best-performing industries on April 23 were automotive (+3.21%), machinery equipment (+2.47%), telecommunications (+1.73%), electric power equipment (+1.18%), and electronics (+0.91%). The worst-performing industries included retail (-1.85%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-1.39%), real estate (-1.38%), non-ferrous metals (-1.26%), and beauty care (-0.95%) [4] - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market on April 23 was 12,624.62 billion yuan, with net outflow of southbound funds amounting to 9.905 billion HKD [4] Important Recommendations Greenfield Machinery (605259) - The company is recognized as a hidden leader in high-pressure cleaning machines, with growth driven by the recovery of overseas non-US demand and an increase in market share [5] - Key points include: - Overseas demand and domestic market penetration rates for high-pressure cleaning machines have exceeded expectations [5] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 2,092 million, 2,848 million, and 3,671 million yuan, with growth rates of 28.64%, 36.12%, and 28.88% respectively. Net profit is expected to be 193 million, 257 million, and 311 million yuan, with growth rates of 7.07%, 33.19%, and 21.21% [5] - Catalysts for growth include unexpected demand from Europe or emerging markets and the release of production capacity [5] Huichuan Technology (300124) - The company is positioned as a leader in industrial control, with its humanoid robot business opening new growth avenues [7] - Key points include: - The industrial control cycle is expected to recover, and the new energy vehicle business is entering a profit-contributing phase [7] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 37,574 million, 45,456 million, and 54,600 million yuan, with growth rates of 24%, 21%, and 20% respectively. Net profit is projected to be 4,922 million, 5,827 million, and 6,928 million yuan, with growth rates of 4%, 18%, and 19% [8] - Catalysts for growth include the recovery of the manufacturing sector and accelerated commercialization of humanoid robots [8] Important Insights Giant Star Technology (002444) - The company has shown impressive operational quality, and its capacity restructuring is expected to lead to a new round of valuation reconstruction [9] - Investment opportunities include: - The comparative advantage of overseas capacity and the scarcity of resources in the tool industry, particularly in Southeast Asia [9] - Catalysts for growth include unexpected overseas capacity construction, easing trade tensions, and resilient end-demand [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a projected PE of 23.73 times for 2025 [5]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1.108 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.04%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 234 million yuan, up 5.77% year-on-year [1]. - The product structure is improving, with products priced above 100 yuan accounting for 80% of total sales in Q1 2025, and the proportion of products priced above 300 yuan increasing by 4.43 percentage points to 22.35% [2]. - The company is focusing on consumer cultivation and product structure upgrades in its home province while targeting model market development in other provinces [3]. - Financial indicators show an increase in gross margin to 66.81% and net margin to 20.79%, driven by product structure upgrades [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenues of 1.108 billion yuan and a net profit of 234 million yuan, reflecting growth of 3.04% and 5.77% respectively [1]. Product Structure - The product structure is on an upward trend, with high-end products leading sales growth. The revenue from products priced above 300 yuan increased by 28.14% year-on-year [2]. Regional Performance - Revenue from the home province reached 857 million yuan, up 1.05%, while revenue from outside the province grew by 9.48% to 238 million yuan [3]. Financial Metrics - The gross margin improved to 66.81%, and the net margin increased to 20.79%, attributed to product structure upgrades and effective marketing strategies [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve 3.28 billion yuan in revenue and 408 million yuan in net profit for the full year, with projected revenue growth rates of 10.20%, 10.46%, and 10.71% for 2025 to 2027 [5][6].