Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Short - term TS may continue to be weaker than T and TL due to weak market expectations for central bank interest rate cuts, high capital prices, weaker short - end spot and futures bonds compared to long - end, and the persistence of TS positive arbitrage and hedging strategies [1][35] - The current curve is extremely flat, short - end is significantly affected by capital pricing, and the short - end long - position driving force is limited before the capital price drops significantly [1][14] - Institutions such as funds short futures for hedging to offset interest rate fluctuation risks, and many institutions turn to coupon strategies [2][14] - TS positive arbitrage strategy is a key factor in the decline of TS, with the IRR of the cheapest - to - deliver bond in TS higher than the capital price and a continuous negative basis [3][27] - The main contract of TS is accelerating the switch from TS2506 to TS2509, and TS2506 may perform weaker [4][28] - The possible switch of the cheapest - to - deliver bond of TS2506 from 240024 to 250006 restricts the performance of TS2506 [5][33] Summary by Directory 1 TS in Decline - Since mid - March, the TS contract has been significantly weaker than TF/T/TL contracts. The T main - continuous contract price rose by 1.77% from March 17 to April 22, while the TS main - continuous contract price nearly dropped back to the mid - March low. TS also performed weaker than 2 - year treasury bond spot [12] - Reasons for the decline of TS: - The curve is extremely flat, short - end is affected by capital pricing, and the short - end long - position driving force is limited due to the obvious negative carry and slow decline of the capital price center [14] - Institutions such as funds short TS for hedging. In the current interest rate shock trend, many institutions turn to coupon strategies, and shorting TS can hedge part of the bond market decline risk. The net purchase scale of short - term interest - rate bonds by funds has slowed down since April, while the net purchase scale of short - term credit bonds has increased [2][14][20] - TS positive arbitrage strategy is a key factor. The IRR of the cheapest - to - deliver bond in TS is about 2.3%, significantly higher than the 1.75% - 1.80% return of 1 - year NCD [3][27] - The main contract is accelerating the switch from TS2506 to TS2509. The reasons may be that institutions such as brokers short TS2506 and long TS2509, and non - traditional investors such as funds mainly use TS2509 for hedging and positive arbitrage [4][28] - The possible switch of the cheapest - to - deliver bond of TS2506 from 240024 to 250006 restricts the performance of TS2506 [5][33] - Outlook: Short - term TS may continue to be weaker than T and TL. The 10 - year - 2 - year treasury bond term spread has reached the lowest point since 2020, and the probability of the short - end spot bond weakening significantly again is small [35]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for 德昌股份 is "Add" [4] Core Views - The company reported an annual revenue of 4.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.6%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 410 million yuan, up 27.5% year-on-year [1][2] - The home appliance business exceeded expectations, generating 3.51 billion yuan in revenue, a 43% increase year-on-year, while the automotive parts business saw a significant growth of 105%, reaching 410 million yuan [2] - The company achieved a quarterly revenue of 1.11 billion yuan in Q4, reflecting a 71.4% year-on-year increase, primarily driven by the addition of new projects [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 410 million yuan, with a net profit margin of 10.0%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The automotive parts business turned profitable for the first time, with a gross margin of 21.7%, an increase of 11.4 percentage points year-on-year, surpassing the main business of home appliance OEM [3] - The company optimized its expense ratios, with reductions in sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 500 million yuan, 600 million yuan, and 720 million yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 22.0%, 20.4%, and 19.0% [4] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for these years are estimated at 15x, 12x, and 10x [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - In Q1 2025, market risk appetite rebounded, leading to a slight decrease in overall bank holdings by institutions. There is an increased preference for cyclical and high-dividend stocks among institutional funds [1][2] - The overall public fund holdings in bank stocks decreased slightly, with a 1.5% decline compared to Q4 2024. Active public funds saw a significant decrease of 19.6% in holdings, while index funds and northbound capital increased by 7.4% and 0.8%, respectively [1][4] - Institutions are increasingly favoring mid-sized banks with strong fundamentals and high dividends, with notable increases in holdings for banks such as Shanghai, CITIC, Qingdao, Chongqing, and Ruifeng [2] - Northbound capital holdings remained stable, with a slight increase of 0.8% in Q1 2025. However, there was significant outflow from state-owned banks [2][3] Summary by Sections Institutional Holdings - By the end of Q1 2025, the proportion of institutional holdings in state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks changed by -0.8pc, +0.2pc, +0.3pc, and remained flat, respectively [1] - Active public funds reduced their holdings significantly, while passive public funds increased their positions in high-dividend banks [3][4] Individual Bank Performance - The banks with the largest increases in institutional holdings include Shanghai Bank (+3.9pc), CITIC Bank (+3.0pc), Qingdao Bank (+2.2pc), Chongqing Bank (+2.1pc), and Ruifeng Bank (+1.9pc) [2] - The index funds continued to increase their holdings in bank stocks, with a 7.4% rise in holdings by the end of Q1 2025, particularly in Shanghai Bank [3] Investment Strategy - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking sector, emphasizing the combination of low risk appetite and low risk-free interest rates as favorable conditions for banks. The focus is on low volatility, high dividend yield, and banks located in economically developed regions [5] - Key recommendations include Pudong Development Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Chengdu Bank, along with high-dividend stocks like CITIC Bank, Chongqing Bank, and China Construction Bank [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xiaomi Group is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report anticipates that Xiaomi's automotive deliveries will exceed market expectations, predicting 848,000 units by 2026, with the YU7 model contributing 360,000 units [1] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 356.6 billion CNY and 469.5 billion CNY, respectively, which are 16% and 31% higher than Bloomberg consensus [1] - The automotive business is expected to enhance Xiaomi's profit margins and expand its ecosystem barriers, driving a surge in dealer store openings [1][6] Summary by Sections Automotive Business Impact - Xiaomi's automotive business is projected to achieve profitability in 2025, with adjusted profits exceeding 10 billion CNY in 2026, driven by the success of the SU7 and YU7 models [6][13] - The SU7 model is expected to maintain a steady monthly sales volume of around 25,000 units in 2025, capturing approximately 23.13% of the 200,000-300,000 CNY price segment [28] - The YU7 is anticipated to capture a 16.2% market share in the 200,000-250,000 CNY SUV segment, with projected annual sales of 360,000 units [28] Ecosystem Expansion - Xiaomi's automotive sales are expected to create a "flywheel effect," enhancing the profitability of Xiaomi's retail stores and driving a surge in new store openings [29][36] - The integration of the Xiaomi HyperOS across over 200 product categories is set to facilitate data interconnectivity and enhance user experience across the "people, car, home" ecosystem [32][34] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 481.84 billion CNY, 636.48 billion CNY, and 716.47 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 31.7%, 32.1%, and 12.6% respectively [7][39] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 416.42 billion CNY, 613.35 billion CNY, and 655.96 billion CNY, with growth rates of 52.9%, 47.3%, and 6.9% [7][39] - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, estimating a target price of 56.12 HKD per share based on a 20x PE for core business and a 3x PS for the automotive segment [42][43]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][5]. Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic supplier of electronic ceramics and third-generation semiconductors, focusing on the core track of domestic self-control. It has achieved mass supply of precision ceramic components, addressing critical supply chain issues, and its valuation is expected to improve [1][2]. - The company has a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34% in revenue and 35% in net profit from 2016 to 2021, and it has opened new market opportunities following significant asset restructuring in 2023 [1][2]. - The electronic ceramics market in China is projected to reach nearly 100 billion, with a domestic production rate of only 23%, indicating substantial room for growth [1][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Electronic Ceramics and Third-Generation Semiconductors - The company is backed by China Electronics Technology Group and has established itself as a benchmark for self-control in the industry. It has successfully expanded into the third-generation semiconductor market through strategic acquisitions [16][25]. - The dual focus on electronic ceramics and third-generation semiconductors positions the company as a leader in domestic substitution and technological innovation [25][26]. 2. AI-Driven Upgrades in Optical Modules - The demand for high-end optical modules is expected to surge, with the company already achieving mass production of 800G optical communication device shells, comparable to international products [1][44][69]. - The company is investing in the construction of production lines for electronic ceramic shells, which will continue to release capacity and potentially lead to a performance inflection point [1][69]. 3. Precision Ceramic Components Breakthrough - The market for advanced structural ceramics in China is expected to reach approximately 28.6 billion by 2025, with the current domestic production rate at only 20% [79]. - The company has achieved breakthroughs in the domestic production of key components used in semiconductor equipment, which are expected to contribute significantly to profits and enhance valuation [1][76]. 4. Acquisition of Bowei and Guolian Wanzhong - The company completed a major asset restructuring in 2023, acquiring Bowei and Guolian Wanzhong to deepen its involvement in the third-generation semiconductor sector [2][19]. - Bowei focuses on GaN RF chips, with a market size of approximately 10.3 billion in 2023, while Guolian Wanzhong specializes in SiC automotive chips, benefiting from the rapid growth of the electric vehicle market [2][20]. 5. Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 538 million, 701 million, and 876 million for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 30%, and 25% [3][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 750 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.54%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline by 63.68% to 21 million yuan [1][4] - In Q4 2024, the revenue is 249 million yuan, showing a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.2%, and the net profit is -16 million yuan [1][2] - For Q1 2025, the revenue is anticipated to drop by 26.9% to 124 million yuan, with a net profit of -29 million yuan [1][2] Revenue and Growth Outlook - The company is expected to face revenue pressure in the first half of 2025 due to inventory adjustments and a slowdown in hospital bidding [2] - New product commercialization is ongoing, with the introduction of electronic endoscopes, which may drive additional revenue [2] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 827 million, 1.046 billion, and 1.317 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 10.32%, 26.44%, and 25.95% [4][5] Profitability Analysis - The gross profit margin for 2024 is 68.1%, down 5.7 percentage points year-on-year, leading to a net profit margin of 2.7%, a decrease of 6.3 percentage points [3] - In Q1 2025, the gross profit margin is projected to be 66.36%, with a net profit margin of -23.28% due to revenue pressures and ongoing expenses [3] - Despite short-term profit pressures, there is an expectation for gradual improvement in net profit margins post-2025 [3] Financial Summary - The company’s financial projections indicate a significant recovery in net profit from 38 million yuan in 2025 to 207 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS increasing from 0.28 yuan to 1.54 yuan [4][5] - The price-to-sales ratio for 2025 is estimated at 7 times [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 15.04 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.47 billion yuan, up 46% year-on-year [1] - The company achieved a significant increase in operating cash flow, reaching 2.97 billion yuan, which is a 115% year-on-year growth [1] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 590 million yuan, maintaining a payout ratio of 40% [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.25 billion yuan, representing a 39% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 420 million yuan, up 36% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margins for four-wheeled and two-wheeled vehicles were 36.5% and 21.7% respectively, with a slight decline attributed to accounting policy changes [1] - The sales net profit margin for 2024 was 9.9%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, and the weighted average ROE was 26.3%, up 4.6 percentage points year-on-year [1] Product Matrix and Globalization - The company has optimized its product matrix with the launch of new models such as U10 PRO and X10, achieving a sales volume of 169,100 units for all-terrain vehicles in 2024, with a revenue of 7.21 billion yuan, an 11% increase year-on-year [2] - In the motorcycle segment, the company sold 286,500 units, generating a revenue of 6.04 billion yuan, a 37% year-on-year increase, with a strong performance in both domestic and overseas markets [3] - The electric vehicle segment saw a remarkable growth of 414% in revenue, reaching 400 million yuan, with significant expansion in both domestic and international markets [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 18.8 billion yuan, 22.9 billion yuan, and 27 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 25%, 21%, and 18% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.8 billion yuan, 2.2 billion yuan, and 2.6 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 24%, 22%, and 16% respectively [5] - The corresponding P/E ratios for the next three years are projected to be 13, 11, and 9 times [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company is a leader in high-altitude safety operation equipment for wind power globally, with domestic and international growth opportunities across multiple fields driving performance beyond expectations [1] - The domestic wind power market is experiencing high demand, with significant growth in new installations expected in 2025, projected at approximately 105-115 GW [3] - The company is expanding into overseas markets and other application fields, which are expected to provide additional growth momentum [4] Summary by Sections Market Expectations - The company's main business has limited market space, and there are concerns about the potential decline in domestic wind power business due to the increasing size of wind turbines [2] - There is uncertainty regarding the success of the company's expansion into other application areas [2] - The company's significant exposure to the U.S. market raises concerns about the impact of potential tariffs on performance [2] Performance Drivers - The domestic wind power market is thriving, with an expected annual average new installation capacity of 100 GW from 2024 to 2026, representing a CAGR of 11% [3] - Product optimization and solution iterations are enhancing the value of individual wind turbine configurations [3] - The company is also tapping into the vast potential of the wind power operation and maintenance market, which is expected to contribute to long-term performance [3] Overseas Market Expansion - The company has opportunities in the North American and European markets, which have substantial retrofitting needs [4] - There is significant room for improvement in market share in overseas markets, which could lead to incremental performance growth [4] Multi-Field Expansion - The company is diversifying its product offerings into various fields such as industrial and construction, emergency rescue, and power grids, moving towards a platform-based enterprise model [4] - New products like material conveyors and climbing machines are expected to become key products for the company [4] Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 402 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 28% [10] - The expected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 12, 11, and 9, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Mobile is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company achieved steady revenue growth in Q1 2025, with total revenue of 263.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.02%. The main business revenue reached 222.4 billion yuan, up 1.4% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 30.6 billion yuan, growing by 3.5% year-on-year. The company aims for a trend of low growth in the first half of the year and higher growth in the second half [1][4] - The mobile user base stood at 1.003 billion, with a net decrease of 940,000 users compared to the end of 2024. The 5G user base reached 578 million, with a penetration rate of approximately 57.6%. The average revenue per user (ARPU) for mobile services was 46.9 yuan, down 2.1% year-on-year [2] - The company is actively promoting AI+DICT projects and expanding its market share in the enterprise sector, while also enhancing its presence in emerging markets [2] Financial Summary - For the forecast period from 2025 to 2027, the expected revenue growth rates are 3.3%, 3.2%, and 3.1%, respectively. The net profit growth rates are projected at 5.1%, 5.0%, and 5.0% [4][6] - The company's operating expenses decreased by 1.22% year-on-year, with a notable reduction in sales expenses by 3.61% [3] - The net cash flow from operating activities was 31.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 45.0% year-on-year, primarily due to accelerated payments to private and small enterprises [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company's Q1 performance shows steady growth, with a revenue of 263.8 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.02% year-on-year. The main business revenue reached 222.4 billion yuan, up 1.4% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 30.6 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.5% increase year-on-year. The net profit margin improved by 0.4 percentage points to 11.6% [1] - The company aims for a trend of low-to-high growth in annual performance, with guidance provided during the 2024 earnings briefing indicating a steady increase in revenue and good profit growth for 2025 [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved an EBITDA of 80.7 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.4%. The weighted average return on equity remained stable at 2.2% year-on-year [1] - The mobile user base stood at 1.003 billion, with a net decrease of 940,000 users compared to the end of 2024. The 5G user base reached 578 million, with a penetration rate of approximately 57.6% [2] - The company reported a mobile ARPU of 46.9 yuan, down 2.1% year-on-year, while the family broadband user base increased to 328 million, with a quarterly net addition of 5.48 million users [2] Cost Management - Operating expenses decreased by 1.22% year-on-year, with significant reductions in sales expenses by 3.61% and other operating expenses by 8.16%. However, network operation support costs increased by 1.65% [3] - The net cash flow from operating activities was 31.3 billion yuan, a decline of 45.0% year-on-year, primarily due to accelerated payments to private and small enterprises [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue growth is projected at 3.3%, 3.2%, and 3.1% for 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth expected at 5.1%, 5.0%, and 5.0% respectively. The earnings per share are forecasted to be 6.74 yuan in 2025, with a P/E ratio of 16.76 [4][6]