Group 1: Silver Attributes - Silver possesses three attributes: financial, industrial, and speculative, which drive its price movements differently[3] - Financial attributes are currently gaining importance due to de-dollarization, with central banks potentially increasing silver reserves[3] - Industrial demand for silver is expected to remain resilient, driven by new industrialization in China[3] Group 2: Historical Bull Markets - Historical bull markets for silver have been driven by speculative, industrial, and financial attributes at different times[4] - From 1978 to 1980, speculation led to a significant price increase, with silver reaching over $49 per ounce[4] - The period from 2003 to 2008 saw industrial demand surge due to China's WTO accession, with silver prices rising approximately 217%[41] Group 3: Current Market Dynamics - As of June 2025, silver's total market capitalization is approximately $2.1 trillion, significantly smaller than gold's $22.5 trillion[33] - The silver market is characterized by concentrated holdings, with major institutions like JPMorgan holding 43% of COMEX silver inventory[33] - The silver price is expected to continue rising due to a combination of financial, industrial, and speculative factors, with a notable increase in demand from the photovoltaic sector[24][70] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected trade frictions and a global economic downturn, which could negatively impact industrial demand for silver[5] - The correlation between silver and gold prices remains strong, with a 91.8% correlation observed from 2021 to present[11]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.4%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.5%, the STAR Market 50 dropped by 1.5%, the CSI 1000 declined by 0.9%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.2%, and the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.1% [3][4] - The best-performing sectors on that day were Beauty Care (+1.1%), Banking (+0.5%), Pharmaceutical and Biological (+0.3%), Transportation (+0.2%), and Media (+0.2%). The worst-performing sectors were Defense and Military (-2.0%), Computer (-1.9%), Electronics (-1.7%), Communication (-1.4%), and Non-Bank Financials (-1.1%) [3][4] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1,415.3 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 7.59 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [3][4] Important Insights Inflation and Economic Policy - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year growth was -0.1%, consistent with the previous value and better than market expectations of -0.2%. The month-on-month growth was -0.2%, influenced mainly by falling energy prices [5] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) year-on-year growth recorded -3.3%, slightly below market expectations of -3.2%, with a month-on-month decline of 0.4% due to falling prices of internationally priced bulk commodities [5] Trade Dynamics - In May, China's exports to the United States decreased by 33.6%, primarily due to the high average tariff levels maintained until mid-May when tariffs were officially lowered following negotiations [6] - The market outlook for trade with the U.S. remains pessimistic, but there is potential for a rebound in exports to the U.S. [6]

Export Performance - In May 2025, China's export value in RMB reached 2.28 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, down from 9.3% in the previous month[2] - Cumulative exports from January to May 2025 totaled 10.67 trillion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, slightly down from 7.5%[2] - Exports to Belt and Road countries amounted to 5.34 trillion RMB, growing by 10.4% year-on-year[2] Trade with the U.S. - China's exports to the U.S. in May 2025 fell by 33.6% year-on-year, worsening from a 20.2% decline in April[3] - The average tariff level in May remained high, impacting export performance, with tariffs at 145% before May 14 and reduced to 30% thereafter[4] - The U.S. imported significantly more from Vietnam and Indonesia, with increases of 47.8% and 28.9% respectively, indicating a shift in sourcing[2] Trade Surplus and Economic Impact - The trade surplus in May 2025 was 103.22 billion USD, up from 96.18 billion USD in the previous month, indicating a strong position[6] - In Q1 2025, the trade surplus reached 273 billion USD, contributing 40% to GDP growth[6] - Future trade surplus is expected to continue supporting GDP, contingent on domestic demand policies[5] Risks and Outlook - Potential risks include unexpected deterioration in U.S.-China trade relations and a significant decline in external demand impacting exports[7]

Market Overview - On June 9, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.43%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.29%, the STAR Market 50 gained 0.6%, the CSI 1000 climbed by 1.07%, the ChiNext Index also rose by 1.07%, and the Hang Seng Index increased by 1.63% [3] - The best-performing sectors on June 9 were pharmaceuticals and biotechnology (+2.3%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (+1.72%), textiles and apparel (+1.61%), national defense and military industry (+1.52%), and social services (+1.51%). The worst-performing sectors included food and beverage (-0.43%), automotive (+0.03%), household appliances (+0.04%), building materials (+0.06%), and real estate (+0.06%) [3] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on June 9 was 13,127 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 717 million Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [3] Key Recommendations - The report focuses on Changjiang Communication (600345), highlighting a significant expectation gap in the satellite internet sector [4] - The recommendation logic is based on the progress of low-orbit satellite applications exceeding expectations and accelerated constellation networking, which is expected to drive the company's performance beyond market forecasts [4] - Key drivers include the strategic significance and economic value of low-orbit satellite internet as a new type of information infrastructure, with overseas peers making smooth progress and domestic construction expected to accelerate [4] - The revenue forecast for Changjiang Communication from 2025 to 2027 is projected at 1,260.64 million yuan, 1,683.61 million yuan, and 2,287.50 million yuan, with growth rates of 36.49%, 33.55%, and 35.87% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 294.99 million yuan, 417.20 million yuan, and 576.08 million yuan, with growth rates of 72.84%, 41.43%, and 38.08% respectively [4] - Earnings per share are projected to be 0.89 yuan, 1.27 yuan, and 1.75 yuan, with price-to-earnings ratios of 28.35, 20.04, and 14.52 respectively [4] - Catalysts for growth include accelerated domestic satellite launch networking, contracts signed with overseas clients, and upcoming project tenders [4]

Inflation Data - May CPI year-on-year growth rate is -0.1%, consistent with the previous value and better than the market expectation of -0.2%[1] - May PPI year-on-year growth rate is -3.3%, lower than the previous value of -2.7% and market expectation of -3.2%[1] Price Influences - Energy prices decreased by 1.7% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.13 percentage points to the CPI decline, accounting for nearly 70% of the total CPI drop[2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.6% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth rate of 0%[4] Sector Analysis - In May, prices for other goods and services, clothing, education, culture, and entertainment increased by 7.3%, 1.5%, 0.9%, and 0.1% respectively, while transportation and communication prices decreased by 4.3%[2] - The prices of production materials fell by 4.0%, impacting the overall industrial producer price level by approximately 2.98 percentage points[7] Market Outlook - The stock and bond markets are expected to show a dual bull structure in the second half of the year, supported by a potential easing of US-China trade relations and risk-averse funds[1] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to decline to around 1.5% amid low probability of large-scale domestic demand stimulus[1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [6]. Core Insights - The company is recognized as a leading developer of classic IP games, with a new product cycle expected to begin after the second half of 2025, which is anticipated to drive revenue and profit growth [1]. - The company has recently announced a share buyback plan, intending to repurchase HK$300 million worth of shares over the next 12 months, with 1 million shares already repurchased as of May 29 [1]. - A strategic investment in Century Huatong is expected to significantly boost profits by 2025, as the company has acquired 8 million shares, representing 1.1% of Century Huatong's total shares [2]. - The company has established a joint venture with Century Huatong to manage the distribution of certain "Legend" IP games, leveraging Century Huatong's successful titles like "Whiteout Survival" and "Kingshot" [2]. - The company's classic IP games, including "Legend," "Miracle," and "Hot Blood Legend," provide a solid foundation, with new games expected to gradually gain traction starting in 2026 [3]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of HK$58.4 billion, HK$74.3 billion, and HK$90.2 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of HK$8.15 billion, HK$7.07 billion, and HK$8.92 billion [4]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are estimated to be 10, 11, and 9 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation [4]. - The financial summary indicates a revenue growth of 4.71% in 2025, followed by 27.11% in 2026 and 21.40% in 2027, with net profit margins improving over the forecast period [12].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - Seasonal demand is weakening, but production restrictions are expected to provide support [1] - The report highlights that the overall inventory of five major steel products is 9.3 million tons, with a year-to-date increase of 22.7% [5] - The total inventory at steel mills is 4.33 million tons, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 23.6% [5] - Iron ore port inventory stands at 13.83 million tons, with a year-to-date increase of 6.9% [5] Price Trends - The SW Steel Index is at 2,119, with a weekly change of -0.2% and a year-to-date change of 0.8% [3] - Rebar (HRB400 20mm) price is 3,140 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.3% and a year-to-date increase of 7.9% [3] - Hot-rolled coil price is 3,097 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.1% and a year-to-date decrease of 9.5% [3] - Cold-rolled steel price is 3,640 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.8% and a year-to-date increase of 11.4% [3] Supply and Demand - The average daily pig iron output is projected to be around 230,000 tons [9] - The report indicates that the steel mills' operating rate is fluctuating, impacting overall production [12] - The apparent demand for rebar is noted to be significant, with ongoing monitoring of market conditions [14]

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 06 月 09 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 06 月 09 日 ：张延兵 执业证书编号：S1230511010020 ：021-80106048 ：zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 重要推荐 【浙商计算机 刘雯蜀/童非】优刻得（688158）公司深度：从响应 DeepSeek 看优刻得，云计算价值重估进行时— —20250606 重要观点 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/5 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 【浙商 ESG 祁星】深度研究：ESG 体系下的 AI 研究（一）：多维投资增效，防范伦理风险——20250605 【浙商固收 覃汉/陈婷婷】债券市场专题研究：对于 6 月资金面的思考——20250605 【浙商固收 覃汉/郑莎】债券市场专题研究：近期焦煤上涨对债市是否有影响？ ——20250606 【浙商策略 廖静池/王大霁/李沛】A 股策略周报："上下两难"盘面焦灼，持原仓、盯券商——20250607 1.1 【浙商计算机 刘雯蜀/童非】优刻得（688158）公司深度：从响应 DeepSeek 看优刻得， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about the commercialization prospects of the company's products, including the monoclonal antibody "Sai Li Qi" and the bispecific antibodies GR2002 and GR1803, anticipating data readouts that could enhance valuation [1] - The company achieved significant revenue growth in 2024, with total revenue reaching 30.10 million yuan, and a slight narrowing of net losses to 797 million yuan [1] - The company has a differentiated pipeline with key products progressing steadily, including the approval of Sai Li Qi for moderate to severe plaque psoriasis and ankylosing spondylitis [1][2] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 20.16 million yuan and a net loss of 121 million yuan, with R&D expenses at 10.30 million yuan [1] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 199 million yuan, 533 million yuan, and 1.07 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [4][6] - The company maintains high R&D expenditure, with 610 million yuan in 2024, indicating a commitment to innovation [1] Pipeline Development - The GR1802 monoclonal antibody is progressing through clinical trials for multiple indications, with significant market potential [2] - The GR1801 rabies virus antibody is currently under review for market approval, with promising commercial prospects [2] - Other pipeline products, including GR2001 and GR1803, are advancing through clinical stages and partnerships, demonstrating the company's innovative capabilities [3]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Annualized Discount Model for CSI 500 Futures - **Model Construction Idea**: The model identifies optimal entry points for building positions based on historical performance when the annualized discount of CSI 500 futures exceeds a certain threshold, indicating market pessimism. [1][11] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model uses the annualized discount rate of the next-month contract of CSI 500 index futures as the key metric. - Historical data from 2017 onwards is analyzed to determine the relationship between the discount rate and subsequent returns. - Key findings: - When the annualized discount exceeds 15%, holding the index for more than 12 trading days results in average cumulative returns trending upward. - Holding for over 33 trading days yields a probability of positive cumulative returns exceeding 50%. - Holding for over 50 trading days increases the probability of positive returns to approximately 60%. - Formula: $ \text{Annualized Discount} = \frac{\text{Spot Price} - \text{Futures Price}}{\text{Futures Price}} \times \frac{365}{\text{Days to Maturity}} $ - Spot Price: Current index level - Futures Price: Price of the futures contract - Days to Maturity: Remaining days until the futures contract expires [11] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures market pessimism and identifies potential rebound opportunities, making it a useful tool for timing market entry. [11] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Annualized Discount Model for CSI 500 Futures - **Key Metrics**: - Holding for 12 trading days: Average cumulative returns trend upward. - Holding for 33 trading days: Positive return probability > 50%. - Holding for 50 trading days: Positive return probability ~60%. [1][11] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Proprietary Active Trader Activity Indicator - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the activity level of speculative funds (e.g., proprietary traders) to gauge market sentiment and risk appetite. [3][13] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Data Source: Derived from "Dragon and Tiger List" (龙虎榜) data. - The indicator tracks the marginal changes in active trader participation over time. - Observations: - From late April, the indicator showed a consistent decline, reflecting reduced risk appetite and cautious market sentiment. - Recently, the indicator has shown marginal improvement, suggesting a potential rebound in risk appetite. [3][13] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor provides timely insights into the behavior of speculative funds, which can serve as a leading indicator for shifts in market sentiment. [3][13] 2. Factor Name: BARRA Style Factors - **Factor Construction Idea**: These factors assess the performance of various style attributes (e.g., momentum, volatility, size) to understand market preferences. [23][24] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Data Source: BARRA factor model. - Key Observations for the Week: - Fundamental factors (e.g., profitability) showed significant positive excess returns. - Stocks with high short-term momentum and high volatility outperformed. - Size-related factors (e.g., market capitalization) continued to underperform, indicating a preference for mid- to small-cap stocks. - Formula: Factor returns are calculated as the weighted average of stock returns within each style category. [23][24] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factors effectively capture shifts in market preferences, providing actionable insights for portfolio adjustments. [23][24] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Proprietary Active Trader Activity Indicator - **Key Metrics**: - Indicator showed consistent decline from late April, reflecting reduced risk appetite. - Recent marginal improvement suggests a potential rebound in speculative activity. [3][13] 2. BARRA Style Factors - **Key Metrics**: - Momentum: +0.2% weekly return. - Volatility: +0.2% weekly return. - Profitability: +0.3% weekly return. - Size: -0.5% weekly return. - Nonlinear Size: -0.3% weekly return. [23][24]