Group 1 - The report emphasizes three main investment themes: new consumption, national subsidies driving demand, and the challenges posed by tariffs [1][4] - National subsidies have significantly supported domestic demand, with approximately 50% of the annual budget utilized by June 20, 2025, leading to over 1.3 trillion yuan in sales driven by the "old for new" policy [1][14] - The report highlights the strong performance of the home appliance sector during the 618 shopping festival, with total sales reaching 1.1 billion yuan, accounting for 13% of the overall e-commerce sales [20][21] Group 2 - New consumption trends are emerging, particularly in AI and robotics, with companies like Roborock, Ninebot, and Ecovacs leading the way in innovative product offerings [2][23] - The report notes a shift in the kitchen small appliance market from price competition to value competition, driven by new consumer demographics [28][33] - The performance of small household appliances is expected to rebound, with companies like Ecovacs and Roborock showing significant revenue growth in recent quarters [24][25] Group 3 - The report indicates that national subsidies are expected to continue without interruption, with additional funding batches scheduled for July and October 2025 [3][42] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with brands like Xiaomi and Gree engaging in price wars to maintain market share, particularly in the air conditioning segment [3][47] - The report suggests that companies with strong cash flow and high dividend rates, such as Gree Electric and Midea Group, are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing subsidy programs [4][5] Group 4 - The tariff situation poses risks and opportunities for companies engaged in overseas manufacturing, with firms like Ousheng Electric and Dechang benefiting from global supply chain restructuring [4][12] - The report highlights the importance of innovation in the small appliance sector, with AI hardware and smart home devices experiencing rapid growth [25][34] - Companies are encouraged to focus on high-end product offerings and global market expansion to mitigate the impacts of domestic competition and tariff challenges [4][50]

风险提示：宏观经济下行、人民币大幅贬值、油价大幅上涨、重大自然灾害 等。 证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 06 月 27 日 量价双升，5 月行业盈利有望大幅改善 航空行业 2025 年 5 月数据跟踪 周期/交通运输 本月关注：航空 5 月客运数据量价齐升，关注 25-26 年行业基本面上行趋势及 市值弹性。 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 129 | 2.5 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 3114.3 | 3.5 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 2879.2 | 3.6 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 3.1 0.7 18.2 相对表现 0.8 1.8 4.8 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Jun/24 Oct/24 Feb/25 Jun/25 (%) 交通运输 沪深300 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 行业规模 重点公司主要财务指标 | 公司简称 | 公司代码 | 市值 | 24EPS | 25EPS | 25PE | PB | 投资评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for Xiaomi Group [5][6] Core Views - Xiaomi Group has launched a series of new products including the YU7 SUV, MIX Flip 2 smartphone, AI glasses, and various IoT devices, exceeding market expectations with significant pre-orders for the YU7 [5] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the smartphone market and the largest AIoT hardware platform globally, with a strong outlook for growth driven by its high-end product strategy and international expansion [5][6] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 519.1 billion, 706.7 billion, and 907.5 billion CNY respectively, with adjusted net profits of 45.8 billion, 67.7 billion, and 92.6 billion CNY [6] Summary by Sections Automotive - The YU7 SUV has received over 200,000 pre-orders within three minutes of launch, showcasing strong market demand [5] - The YU7 features advanced specifications including a standard range of 835 km, high-level autonomous driving capabilities, and competitive pricing compared to Tesla's Model Y [5][6] Smartphones - The MIX Flip 2 and REDMI K80 Supreme Edition smartphones were launched with significant upgrades in performance and design [5] - The MIX Flip 2 features a 4.01-inch external screen, a 5165mAh battery, and advanced folding technology, while the REDMI K80 boasts a Dimensity 9400+ processor and a large 7410mAh battery [5][6] IoT Products - Xiaomi introduced a range of IoT products including tablets, wearables, and smart home appliances, with the first AI glasses priced at 1999 CNY [5] - The new products aim to enhance user experience and integrate seamlessly into the Xiaomi ecosystem [5] Financial Projections - The report forecasts significant revenue growth with a year-on-year increase of 42% in 2025, 36% in 2026, and 28% in 2027 [6] - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 35.3, 23.2, and 16.7 respectively, indicating potential for long-term value appreciation [6]

证券研究报告 | 行业简评报告 2025 年 06 月 26 日 收入和毛利率超指引，12Hi-HBM3E 预计 FY25Q4 量产 美光 FY25Q3 跟踪报告 TMT 及中小盘/电子 事件： 美光于 6 月 25 日公布 FY25Q3 财报（注：截至 5 月 31 日的 3 个月期间），营 收 93 亿美元，同比+37%/环比+15%；毛利率 39%，同比+11pcts/环比+1pct。 评论： 1、FY25Q3 收入同比高增长，单季毛利率和 EPS 超预期。 FY25Q3 收入 93 亿美元，同比+37%/环比+15%，超指引上限（88±2 亿美元）； 毛利率 39%，同比+11pcts/环比+1pct，超指引上限（36.5%±1pct）；净利率 23.4%，同比+13pcts/环比+1.3pcts；EPS 1.91 美金，超指引预期（1.61 美金）。 2、DRAM 和 NAND 位元环比持续增长，HBM 收入环比增长近 50%。 1）按产品划分：①DRAM 收入 70.7 亿美金，同比+50.7%/环比+15.5%，创单 季历史新高，位元出货量环比增长超 20%，ASP 环比下降低个位数百分比，价 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that since 2025, the construction materials industry has been underperforming due to unresolved supply-demand conflicts, with real estate downturns and limited counter-cyclical effects from infrastructure investments leading to insufficient market confidence [15][16][22]. - The report identifies two types of leading companies in the construction materials industry: those focusing on stabilizing and optimizing their core businesses with high dividend returns, and those actively expanding their capabilities through market, product, and demand boundaries [1][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the "outbound, transformation, and upgrade" strategy for companies to enhance their value, particularly in the context of the changing competitive landscape [1][8]. Group 2 - The construction materials sector is experiencing a structural shift towards "stock competition" domestically and an "outbound strategy" internationally, indicating a need for companies to adapt their strategic choices [1][8]. - The report notes that the domestic market for construction materials is characterized by stock competition, with a focus on cash flow and recovery potential for leading companies [5][8]. - The report anticipates that the renovation of old residential areas during the 14th Five-Year Plan will create over 300 billion yuan in new market space for the construction materials industry [5][8]. Group 3 - The cement industry is expected to see a recovery in profitability due to enhanced industry self-discipline and a reduction in "involution" competition, supported by government policies and stable infrastructure investment [5][8]. - The report suggests that leading cement companies with strong cash flow and high dividend yields, such as Conch Cement, are well-positioned for sustained value [8][7]. - The glass fiber sector is benefiting from price increases in electronic fabrics, which are driving improvements in profitability for leading companies [5][8]. Group 4 - The report indicates that the construction materials industry is facing a weak overall performance, with the construction materials index underperforming compared to the broader market indices [16][22]. - The report highlights that the construction materials sector has seen a decline in stock prices, with specific sub-sectors like glass manufacturing experiencing significant downturns [16][22]. - The report emphasizes the need for companies to focus on cash flow management and optimize their operations to navigate the current market challenges [5][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The company has shown strong performance during the 618 shopping festival, with its KTC brand ranking among the top five in the display category on JD.com, indicating significant market recognition [1][5]. - The strategic focus on innovative display products and AI integration positions the company as a typical case of "technology + consumption" convergence, resonating with new consumer experiences [1]. - The launch of AI glasses is expected to catalyze valuation growth, as the company aims to capture market share in this emerging segment [1][5]. Financial Data Summary - The total revenue for 2025 is projected to be 17.457 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12% [6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is estimated at 1.059 billion yuan, reflecting a 27% increase compared to the previous year [6][11]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 11.4% in 2024 to 14.8% by 2027 [10]. Product Performance - KTC's products, including the H27T22S-3 and M27T6S, achieved top sales in their respective categories during the 618 festival, with the former surpassing its closest competitor by 47% in sales volume [5]. - The company’s innovative products, such as the mobile smart screen and AI beauty mirror, have been recognized in various industry rankings, showcasing the effectiveness of its R&D investments [1][5]. Market Positioning - The company is strategically enhancing its overseas market presence, which is expected to be a significant growth driver due to higher profit margins [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the company's product structure optimization and the increasing share of overseas business in driving overall profitability [1].

Group 1: Macro Retail Trends - The retail sector and e-commerce are experiencing steady growth, with a notable increase in consumer demand driven by government subsidies for replacement purchases. In the first five months of 2025, retail sales grew by 5% year-on-year, with specific monthly growth rates of 4.6%, 5.1%, and 6.4% in Q1 and April to May respectively [14][19][22] - E-commerce continues to outpace overall retail growth, with online retail sales of physical goods increasing by 6.3% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025, indicating a steady rise in online penetration [17][28] - Essential goods show resilience, with food and daily necessities growing by 13% and 6.2% respectively in the same period, while government-supported categories like home appliances are leading the growth in discretionary spending [19][22] Group 2: E-commerce Sector Insights - The e-commerce industry is on an upward trend, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.3% in online retail sales, surpassing the overall retail growth rate. Major platforms like Alibaba, JD.com, and Pinduoduo are showing strong performance, with JD benefiting from government subsidies [28][31] - Competition in the e-commerce sector is easing as platforms shift away from aggressive price wars towards optimizing their unique competitive advantages. This strategic shift is expected to enhance profitability and market stability [31][32] - Instant retail is emerging as a high-growth segment within e-commerce, with the market expected to exceed 1.7 trillion by 2030, driven by consumer demand for faster delivery options [37][46] Group 3: Retail and Consumer Services - The snack retail sector is highlighted for its efficiency and high turnover, with leading companies like Wancheng Group and Mingming Hen Mang showing strong performance. The focus is on differentiating quality retail to meet consumer demands [4][22] - The tea beverage market is experiencing rapid growth, particularly in lower-tier cities, with brands like Guming and Mixue benefiting from increased consumer interest and delivery services [5][22] - The travel and tourism sector is recovering, with domestic travel showing a 26.4% year-on-year increase in Q1 2025, indicating strong consumer demand for leisure activities [22][26]

Group 1 - The report indicates a shift in the secondary market, with tracked funds turning to net inflow, particularly in ETFs with a net inflow of 136.5 billion yuan, while financing funds showed a net outflow of 35.0 billion yuan [2][4][35] - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate and continues to expect two rate cuts within the year, despite increasing internal divisions regarding economic forecasts [4][15][18] - Economic forecasts have been adjusted, with the unemployment rate and inflation expectations raised, while GDP growth expectations have been lowered, indicating potential stagflation risks due to tariff policies [4][10][11] Group 2 - The liquidity index for A-shares shows an increase in public fund issuance to 190.9 billion yuan, while the net buy of financing funds decreased to -34.99 billion yuan [3][35] - The demand side reflects a decrease in lock-up releases to 449.44 billion yuan and a drop in IPO financing to 6.4 billion yuan, indicating a contraction in capital demand [3][40] - The market sentiment has shown a decrease in trading activity, with the risk premium on equities rising, suggesting a cautious outlook among investors [45][47] Group 3 - The report highlights a preference for sectors such as pharmaceuticals, non-bank financials, and defense, which have seen significant net inflows from various funds [4][20] - The trading activity in the market has been characterized by a decline in turnover rates across various style indices and major industry sectors, indicating a potential slowdown in market engagement [50][51] - The overall market performance reflects a mixed sentiment, with the Nasdaq index slightly up by 0.2% while the S&P 500 index fell by 0.2%, suggesting volatility in investor confidence [47]

Group 1 - The bond market exhibited a "V"-shaped trend in the first half of 2025, with the 10-year government bond yield peaking at 1.9% on March 17 and reaching a low of 1.6% on February 6 [2][12] - The bond market's performance in the first half was characterized by a low interest rate environment, with a notable influence from the stock market, leading to a "look at stocks, invest in bonds" behavior [2][3] - Economic fundamentals remain supportive for the bond market, with expectations of a stable recovery in consumption and a gradual rise in price levels, indicating a friendly environment for bonds [3][35] Group 2 - The bond supply and demand dynamics are balanced, with potential disturbances from banks selling bonds at quarter-end and the central bank's actions regarding bond purchases being a focal point for the market [4] - The strategy for interest rate bonds involves duration and swing trading, with an emphasis on the value of local government bonds, particularly in the 10-15 year and 30-year maturities [5][44] - The strategy for urban investment bonds focuses on yield strategies, emphasizing the importance of duration and liquidity in specific regions, particularly in provinces like Shandong and Xinjiang [6] Group 3 - The economic outlook for the second half of 2025 suggests a continued recovery in consumption, supported by government fiscal measures, with retail sales expected to maintain a steady growth rate [24][27] - Price levels are anticipated to rise moderately, with CPI and PPI remaining low, indicating that inflationary pressures are not expected to be significant in the near term [30][35] - Export growth is projected to decline in the second half of the year due to external pressures and the unsustainability of current export strategies, which may impact overall economic performance [31][35]

Economic Growth - In the first quarter of 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year, with an expected growth rate of approximately 5.3% for the first half of the year[2] - The GDP growth rate is projected to be around 4.7% in Q3 and 4.9% in Q4, leading to an annual growth rate of 5%-5.1%[2] Policy Outlook - Fiscal policy is expected to continue its expansion, with a focus on optimizing expenditures and increasing central government leverage[2] - Monetary policy is likely to remain accommodative, targeting specific sectors to stimulate growth[2] Industrial Production - Industrial added value is anticipated to grow by about 6% for the year, supported by improved production environments and new investment projects[2] - High-tech manufacturing is expected to lead growth, with a projected increase in added value of 7.5%-8.5% in the second half of 2025[2] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment is projected to grow by 4.5% for the year, with manufacturing investment expected to increase by 8.5%[2] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) is forecasted to grow by around 7% due to accelerated project funding and implementation[2] Consumer Spending - Retail sales are expected to grow by 5.5% for the year, driven by policies such as "trade-in" incentives, with an estimated subsidy scale of 300 billion yuan[2] - Consumer spending may experience fluctuations due to external economic uncertainties and income growth challenges[2] Trade and Exports - Export growth is projected to decline by 0.5% for the year, influenced by global economic slowdowns and trade protectionism[2] - Import growth is expected to contract by 3% for the year, reflecting ongoing pressures in the domestic market[2] Inflation and Prices - CPI is expected to remain around 0.1% for the year, while PPI is projected to decline by approximately 2%[2] - The inflation outlook indicates a gradual increase in consumer prices, but significant upward pressure is limited[2] Corporate Profits - Industrial enterprise profits are expected to see a low recovery, with an annual growth rate projected to exceed 3%[2] - Profit growth is primarily constrained by PPI declines and external demand pressures[2]