Group 1: Loan Data - In July, new RMB loans decreased by 50 billion, a year-on-year reduction of 310 billion, lower than the Wind average expectation[12] - From January to July, RMB loans decreased by 660 billion year-on-year, with a growth rate decline of 1.6 percentage points compared to last year[12] - The structure of loans deteriorated, with household loans down by 492.7 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 287.1 billion[13] Group 2: Deposit Data - In July, RMB deposits increased by 500 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.3 trillion[16] - Household deposits decreased by 780 billion year-on-year, while corporate deposits increased by 320.9 billion[16] - From January to July, RMB deposits increased by 7.78 trillion year-on-year, with corporate deposits contributing 45.5%[16] Group 3: Social Financing (社融) - In July, new social financing reached 1.2 trillion, with a growth rate of 9%, up by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[18] - Government bonds contributed significantly, with net financing of approximately 812.4 billion for local bonds, a year-on-year increase[19] - The overall social financing growth is expected to decline, with government bond growth peaking and then decreasing[18] Group 4: Market Insights - The equity market has exerted emotional pressure on the bond market, leading to a "stock-bond seesaw" effect[3] - The current financial data supports a bullish outlook on the bond market, with a 1.7% yield on ten-year bonds seen as an entry point[5] - The weakening demand for financing in the real economy suggests limited upward pressure on interest rates in the near future[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Sea (SE.N) [1][4] Core Insights - Sea's Q2 2025 performance exceeded expectations with revenue of $5.3 billion, a 38% increase year-over-year, and e-commerce revenue of $3.8 billion, up 33.7% [1] - The company has raised its growth guidance for the year, expecting a 25% year-over-year increase in Shopee's GMV for the first half of 2025 and over 30% growth in Garena's bookings for the year [1][4] - The financial services segment is experiencing rapid growth, with Sea Money's revenue reaching $883 million, a 70% increase year-over-year, and a loan portfolio growth of over 90% [4] Financial Performance - For 2025, the company forecasts total revenue of $21.7 billion, with a year-over-year growth rate of 29% [2] - Adjusted EBITDA is projected to be $3.55 billion in 2025, reflecting an 81% increase from the previous year [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise significantly to $4.46 in 2025, compared to $0.27 in 2023 [2][8] Business Segments - E-commerce: Shopee's GMV for Q2 was $29.8 billion, a 28.2% increase, with strong growth in advertising revenue and user engagement [4] - Digital Entertainment: Revenue for Q2 reached $560 million, a 28.4% increase, with a significant rise in active users and bookings [4] - Digital Financial Services: Sea Money's loan book reached $6.9 billion, with a healthy delinquency rate of only 1.2% [4] Market Position - Sea has established itself as a market leader in Brazil, with 25% of packages delivered the next day and 40% within two days, while also reducing logistics costs by 16% year-over-year [4] - The company is enhancing user loyalty through initiatives like the VIP membership program, which has shown promising results in Indonesia [4] Stock Performance - The stock has shown strong performance with a 160.2% increase over the past 12 months [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][6]. Core Views - The company experienced revenue and profit declines in the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 2.078 billion yuan, down 11.33% year-on-year, and a net profit of 271 million yuan, down 20.25% year-on-year. The company is focusing on improving cash flow and product pricing despite weak market demand [5][6]. - The company is expanding its sales layout and enhancing brand building, with a focus on retail business value reconstruction and the implementation of its "Same Circle" and "Weixing Whole House Water Ecology" strategies [6][5]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.00 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 157 million yuan, reflecting a dividend payout ratio of 58.00% [6]. Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.078 billion yuan, with a breakdown of product revenues showing declines in PPR, PE, and PVC series products [5]. - The company's operating cash flow net amount was 581 million yuan, an increase of 99.10% year-on-year, indicating strong cash flow management [5]. - The sales gross margin and net margin were 40.50% and 13.08%, respectively, both showing slight declines compared to the previous year [5]. Strategic Developments - The company completed the acquisition of minority shareholders in Shanghai New Materials, increasing its stake to 90.00%, which strengthens its control over the waterproof business [5]. - The company has established over 50 sales companies nationwide, with more than 1,700 marketing and service personnel, covering over 30,000 marketing outlets [5]. Financial Projections - The company expects EPS of 0.52 yuan and 0.57 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 21.3x and 19.4x [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company demonstrates resilience in its dual main businesses of dyeing and gold, with profit margins improving across various operations. Despite industry pressures, the dyeing business has seen a slight decline in revenue but an increase in profit margins, while the gold business has maintained stable income and profit despite a decrease in sales volume [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Performance - In Q2 2025, the company's revenue grew by 0.91% year-on-year to 2.493 billion yuan, and net profit increased by 5.00% to 179 million yuan. For the first half of 2025, total revenue was 5.442 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.78%, while net profit rose by 5.51% to 315 million yuan [1][3]. Dyeing Business - The dyeing segment faced challenges from tariffs and intensified competition, resulting in a revenue of 1.769 billion yuan in H1 2025, down 8.58% year-on-year. However, the total profit for this segment was 236 million yuan, only a slight decrease of 1.36%, with a sales profit margin of 13.35%, an increase of 0.98 percentage points [2][3]. Gold Business - The gold segment managed to retain market share despite high gold prices and cautious consumer sentiment. In H1 2025, gold jewelry sales volume decreased by 17.34% to 27.244 tons, but revenue increased by 0.47% to 3.440 billion yuan, with total profit rising by 2.60% to 97 million yuan. The calculated sales profit margin was 2.81%, up by 0.06 percentage points [2][3]. Cost Control and Profit Margins - The company effectively controlled various expense ratios, leading to an increase in net profit margin. In H1 2025, the gross margin rose by 2.94 percentage points to 18.96%, while the net profit margin increased by 0.47 percentage points to 6.62%. In Q2 2025, the gross margin decreased by 2.10 percentage points to 15.40%, but the net profit margin still improved by 0.13 percentage points to 8.13% [3][4]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 726 million yuan, 770 million yuan, and 812 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 1%, 6%, and 6%. The revenue forecasts for the same years are 11.530 billion yuan, 12.223 billion yuan, and 12.862 billion yuan, with growth rates of 1%, 6%, and 5% [1][8].

Investment Rating - The report adjusts the investment rating for the company to "Accumulate" [1][3] Core Views - The company's Q2 performance was under pressure, with a revenue decline of 3.4% year-on-year and a net profit drop of 71.0% due to a decline in traditional offline channels and increased brand expenses and costs [1][6] - There is an expectation for improvement in domestic sales in July, with contributions from e-commerce, membership supermarkets, and overseas market exploration in countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia anticipated to show results in Q3 and Q4 [1][6] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 240 million, 270 million, and 310 million respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.53, 2.94, and 3.34, reflecting a 20x PE for 2026 [1][6] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 1,848 million, increasing to 2,802 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 9% [2][12] - The company’s total market capitalization is 5.4 billion, with a circulating market value of 2.9 billion [3] - The current stock price is 57.86 yuan, with a projected PE ratio of 22.8 for 2025 [3][13] Performance Analysis - In H1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 945 million, down 9.34% year-on-year, and a net profit of 75 million, down 55.2% [6][12] - The sales channels showed mixed results, with e-commerce recovering to a growth of 12.4%, while traditional channels faced significant pressure [6][12] - The gross profit margin for Q2 2025 decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 32.8%, primarily due to rising raw material costs and changes in channel structure [6][12] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a gradual improvement in revenue and profit margins in H2 2025, supported by stable cost conditions and improved sales performance [1][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of brand adjustments and the potential for growth in new product categories and overseas markets [1][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [1][3] Core Views - The company achieved revenue and net profit of 91.09 billion and 45.40 billion respectively in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.2% and 8.9% [1][7] - In Q2 2025, revenue and net profit were 39.65 billion and 18.56 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.3% and 5.3% [1][7] - The company is focusing on accelerating the sales of its flagship products and increasing the proportion of mid-tier products while expanding its international market presence [1][7] - The gross margin in Q2 2025 faced pressure due to increased marketing expenses, leading to a slight decline in profitability [1][7] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the upcoming holiday season as a critical test for demand [1][7] Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total market capitalization is 180.52 billion, with a current share price of 1437.04 yuan [3] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) stands at 37.7%, and the debt-to-asset ratio is 14.8% [3] - The report slightly adjusts the EPS forecast for 2025-2027 to 74.13, 79.16, and 83.47 yuan respectively [1][7] - The company’s cash flow from operations in H1 2025 was 13.12 billion, down 64.2% year-on-year [1][7] - The report indicates that the company’s direct sales channel accounted for 44.8% of total sales in Q2 2025, an increase of 3.59 percentage points [1][7] Revenue and Profit Trends - The company’s revenue from its flagship liquor and series liquor in H1 2025 was 75.59 billion and 13.76 billion, representing growth of 10.2% and 4.7% respectively [1][7] - The report notes that the company added 137 new domestic distributors in H1 2025, likely due to adjustments in the distributor structure [1][7] - The net profit margin for Q2 2025 decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 49.5% due to increased marketing and sales expenses [1][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in performance for Q2 2025, with revenue reaching 8.29 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.7%, and a net profit of 745 million, up 159.6% year-on-year [5]. - The company has revised its AI PCB capital expenditure (Capex) upwards, aiming to accelerate capacity expansion and customer integration in the TMT and small-cap/electronic sectors [1][5]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing hardware innovations and AI integration trends, particularly with major clients expected to drive demand for new products [5]. Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 16.38 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24.75%, and a net profit of 1.23 billion, up 57.2% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin improved to 19.1%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin reached 7.5%, up 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company’s revenue for 2025 is projected to be 42.17 billion, with a net profit of 4.50 billion, corresponding to an EPS of 1.94 [10][13]. Business Structure Analysis - Revenue from communication boards was 10.27 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, while consumer electronics and computer boards generated 5.17 billion, up 31.6% year-on-year [5]. - The automotive and server segments saw revenue of 810 million, a significant year-on-year increase of 87.4% [5]. - The company has established strong capabilities in AI PCB technology, particularly in high-density interconnect (HDI) and substrate-like PCB (SLP) products, with successful entry into the 800G/1.6T optical module market [5]. Future Outlook - The company has increased its AI PCB Capex to over 30 billion New Taiwan dollars (approximately 7-9 billion RMB) for 2025-2026, with nearly 50% allocated for expanding high-end HDI and high-layer count (HLC) capacity [5]. - The company is actively expanding its production capabilities in Thailand and Kaohsiung to meet future demand for high-end products [5]. - The report emphasizes a positive long-term outlook driven by hardware innovations and AI integration, with significant growth expected in the AI-related product segments [5].

推荐（维持） 证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2025 年 08 月 12 日 政策点评 两项贴息政策总结和影响 总量研究/银行 2025 年 8 月 12 日央行联合财政部等部门公布了针对个人消费贷款和消费服务 业经营性贷款的两项贴息政策。我们认为这将利好信贷尤其是经营性贷款恢复， 利好银行和宏观流动性。由于贴息贷款经办银行主要是国股行，所以利好国股 行相关贷款领域市占率提高。 ❑ 风险提示：由于贴息政策只针对国股行，可能导致区域行相关领域市占率和 金融生态受损；资金用途监管不严，导致资本市场波动加大；经济恢复不及 预期，资产质量恶化等。 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 41 | 0.8 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 11241.9 | 11.7 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 10642.3 | 12.2 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -5.6 15.9 36.6 相对表现 -8.3 9.8 12.9 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 Aug/24 Dec/24 Mar/25 Jul/ ...

Report Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report reviews 5 historical instances of bond bull - to - bear market transitions to provide insights for the current bond market [1]. - The main factor for the bond market's bull - to - bear transition is the recovery of real - entity financing demand, and it's crucial to grasp the timing of the central bank's monetary tightening [7]. - The bond market's interest rate fluctuation center is rising, and a defensive - counterattack investment strategy is suitable, waiting for trading opportunities from stock market rhythm changes [8]. Summary by Directory 2002 - 2020 Five Rounds of Bond Bull - to - Bear Market Review - 2003.9 - 2004.12: Rising inflation and tightened monetary policy led to a bond bear market. The central bank raised the reserve requirement ratio to prevent excessive growth of money and credit [2]. - 2006.11 - 2007.11: Over - heated economy and tightened monetary policy caused the bond market to turn bearish. Strong terminal demand drove inflation up, and the central bank tightened policy to curb over - heating [3]. - 2009.1 - 2009.11: Counter - cyclical policies, economic recovery, and monetary tightening led to a bond bear market. The 10 - year treasury bond rate rose from 2.85% to 3.68%, and the market later entered a volatile phase [4]. - 2016.10 - 2017.11: Financial de - leveraging drove the bond bear market. The 10 - year treasury bond rate rose from 2.69% to 3.92%, with strict supervision and tight money as the main factors [5]. - 2020.5 - 2020.11: Premature shift in monetary policy and an economic inflection point brought a bond bear market. The 10 - year treasury bond rate rose from 2.54% to 3.25% [6]. Characteristics of Bond Bull - to - Bear Transition - The recovery of real - entity financing demand, represented by economic upturn and rising prices, is the main cause of the bond market's bull - to - bear transition. The real - estate cycle has a significant impact on bond market interest rates [7]. - Central bank's monetary tightening occurs in all bond bear markets, but the timing varies according to the macro - economic environment, and grasping this timing is key [7]. Investment Strategy - The "see - saw" effect between stocks and bonds is significant this year. Due to changes in inflation expectations, the bond market has declined while stocks have risen since July [8]. - Considering the low long - term interest rates and the possible PPI recovery, there is a risk of long - term interest rate re - pricing, and the interest rate curve tends to steepen [8]. - A defensive - counterattack strategy is recommended. Do not chase when the 10 - year treasury bond rate is below 1.7%, and consider short - term allocation at around 1.75%, waiting for trading opportunities from stock market rhythm changes [8].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Recommended" with a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [2][35]. Core Insights - As of June 2025, the total deposit scale in China reached 280.7 trillion, with household deposits at 162 trillion and corporate deposits at 118.7 trillion. The growth rates from 2018 to mid-2025 show household time deposits increased by 165.4%, significantly outpacing corporate deposits [5][9][24]. - The estimated maturity of time deposits in 2025 is approximately 105 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 14 trillion. This includes about 45 trillion maturing in the first quarter, indicating a substantial liquidity source for the capital market [15][30]. - The re-pricing of time deposits maturing from 2022 to 2024 is projected to reduce the annualized cost of liabilities for banks by approximately 1.5 trillion, contributing positively to the banks' interest margins [24][30]. - The liquidity impact of maturing time deposits is expected to create significant market expectations, with potential inflows into the capital market if market sentiment aligns [30][31]. Summary by Sections Current Deposit Scale and Structure - As of June 2025, total deposits in China are 280.7 trillion, with household deposits at 162 trillion and corporate deposits at 118.7 trillion. The growth rates from 2018 to mid-2025 indicate a significant increase in household time deposits [5][9][24]. Maturity Scale and Rhythm of Time Deposits - The estimated total maturity of time deposits in 2025 is around 105 trillion, with a notable increase in the first quarter. The data suggests a growing trend in the maturity of time deposits, which is crucial for liquidity in the capital market [15][30]. Impact on Interest Margins from Maturing Time Deposits - The re-pricing of time deposits maturing from 2022 to 2024 is expected to lower banks' annualized liability costs by about 1.5 trillion, positively affecting interest margins. This is anticipated to alleviate pressure on banks' interest margins starting in the second half of 2025 [24][30]. Liquidity Impact of Maturing Time Deposits - The large scale of maturing deposits is expected to create significant liquidity impacts, with potential inflows into the capital market. However, the transition of wealth into the capital market is viewed as a long-term process rather than an immediate outcome [30][31].