Group 1 - The report highlights the upcoming Volcano Engine Original Power Conference focusing on AI cloud-native capabilities and the exploration of new paradigms in agent development [4][12] - The Apple WWDC is set to introduce significant updates, including a shift from numerical naming to a year-based system for its operating systems, enhancing user experience through AI innovations [4][15][16] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring five key sectors with marginal improvements: AI applications, self-control, new consumption, precious metals, and innovative pharmaceuticals [34] Group 2 - The report discusses the recent policies aimed at addressing "involution" in the automotive industry, promoting high-quality development and fair competition [36][39] - It notes that approximately 47 important policies were released last week, focusing on the automotive sector's healthy development and consumer market guidance [36][39] - The report suggests that the global stock market showed a mixed performance, with telecommunications, information technology, and materials sectors performing well, while daily consumption and public utilities lagged [4][36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the chemical industry, suggesting to focus on new materials and price increase themes [1][6]. Core Insights - The chemical sector saw an overall increase of 2.61% in the second week of June, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.47 percentage points [1][11]. - Key stocks that performed well include Lianhua Technology (+53.11%), Lingpai Technology (+34.39%), and Keheng Co. (+31.13%) [1][11]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring specific companies such as Dawn Co. for DVA products, Anli Co. for expanding customer applications, and Kent Catalysts for its low valuation and growth potential [4]. Industry Performance - The chemical sector's dynamic PE is at 24.58 times, which is lower than the average PE of 9.86 times since 2015 [1][11]. - In the second week of June, 18 sub-industries within the chemical sector increased, while 12 decreased. The top five gaining sub-industries were pesticides (+7.51%), civil explosives (+4.4%), fluorochemicals and refrigerants (+3.99%), potassium fertilizers (+3.8%), and other plastic products (+2.78%) [2][14]. Price and Spread Trends - The report lists the top five products with the highest weekly price increases: liquid chlorine (+11.83%), hydrochloric acid (+4.62%), WTI crude oil (+3.99%), photovoltaic-grade trichlorosilane (+3.03%), and ethyl acrylate (+2.48%) [3][19]. - The top five products with the largest price spread increases were PTA spread (+31.3%), PX (CFR China) spread (+29.84%), and propylene (propane-based) spread (+22.09%) [3][40]. Inventory Changes - Significant inventory changes were noted, with ethylene glycol increasing by 41.96% and polyester filament increasing by 17.4%. Conversely, glyphosate and potassium chloride saw decreases of 7.91% and 5.91%, respectively [4][60].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the banking sector [1] Core Insights - The central bank's 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation is expected to stabilize the funding environment, with a focus on maintaining liquidity [11][12] - The report highlights a decrease in bill rates, with 1M, 3M, and 6M bill rates at 0.97%, 1.02%, and 1.09% respectively, indicating a downward trend [11][18] - The total market capitalization of the banking sector is approximately 10,023.7 billion yuan, representing 11.5% of the total market [1] Summary by Sections Section 1: Current Observations - The central bank has conducted a 9,309 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 6,717 billion yuan [12] - The upcoming month will see 1.2 trillion yuan in reverse repos maturing, which may impact liquidity [12][32] Section 2: Bills - The cumulative net purchase of bills by state-owned banks reached 1,191.69 billion yuan, up from 1,113 billion yuan year-on-year [11][18] Section 3: Monetary Policy - The central bank's operations include a 1 trillion yuan buyout reverse repo starting June 6, 2025, aimed at maintaining liquidity [12][32] Section 4: Fiscal Policy - Government bond net financing for the week was 1,101.28 billion yuan, with expectations of a net repayment of approximately 587.10 billion yuan in the next period [14] Section 5: Certificates of Deposit - The total issuance of interbank certificates of deposit was 5,850 billion yuan, with a net financing of -816 billion yuan [14][15] Section 6: Commercial Bank Financing - The total bond issuance by commercial banks was 5,940 billion yuan, with a net financing scale of -726 billion yuan [16] Section 7: Interbank Lending - The cumulative net lending among banks in June 2025 was 4,518 billion yuan, which is lower than seasonal expectations [16] Section 8: Deposit Rates - The report tracks the adjustment of deposit rates across 74 banks, indicating a rapid pace of rate reductions [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [3]. Core Insights - The coal market is expected to maintain a stable and narrow fluctuation pattern in the short term, with potential for a rebound in prices as electricity demand from power plants is fully released [9][10]. - As of June 6, 2025, the price of thermal coal showed mixed trends, with the Yulin 5800 kcal index at 479.0 CNY/ton (up 1.0 CNY/ton week-on-week), while the Ordos 5500 kcal index decreased to 425.0 CNY/ton (down 1.0 CNY/ton) [9][10]. - The report highlights that coal still accounts for over 53.2% of China's total energy consumption, emphasizing its role as a fundamental energy source [13][14]. Summary by Sections Investment Viewpoint - The thermal coal market has shown mixed price movements, with a slight increase in some indices and a decrease in others, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation [9][10]. - The report anticipates that the market will continue to experience a de-stocking trend until electricity demand increases significantly, which could lead to a price rebound [9]. Coal Sector Performance and Stock Review - The coal mining and washing index decreased by 0.62%, while the broader CSI 300 index increased by 0.88% [10]. - Major coal companies showed varied performance, with Daya Energy increasing by 10.51% and Shanxi Coal falling by 9.35% [10][11]. Coal Industry Dynamic Data Tracking - As of June 6, 2025, the daily coal consumption of six major coastal power plants was 736,000 tons, a decrease of 39,000 tons week-on-week, with total inventory at 14.103 million tons, up 9,000 tons week-on-week [2][9]. - The report notes that the "Meng Coal Transportation" artery, the Tangbao Railway, has undergone upgrades to enhance energy transport capacity [15]. Key Company Valuations - The report provides valuations for key coal companies, with China Shenhua's total market value at 756.59 billion CNY and a projected PE ratio of 12.9 for 2024 [46]. - Other notable companies include Shaanxi Coal with a market value of 194.19 billion CNY and a PE ratio of 8.7 for 2024 [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds in the week of June 8, 2025, including net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, secondary spreads, trading volume, and turnover rate. It also presents the issuance plans for the second quarter of 2025 and the allocation of raised funds for new special bonds [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 10.96 billion yuan, with a net financing of 5.05 billion yuan. The issuance of new general bonds was 0.87 billion yuan, new special bonds 0.73 billion yuan, refinancing general bonds 6.01 billion yuan, and refinancing special bonds 3.35 billion yuan. Next week, the planned issuance is 10.78 billion yuan, with a net repayment of 4.3 billion yuan [1][3]. - **Issuance Terms**: This week, the 7 - year local government bonds had the highest issuance proportion (37%), and the proportion of 10 - year and above bonds was 57%, a decrease from last week. The issuance proportion of 15 - year bonds decreased significantly, by about 15 percentage points [1]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds**: This week, special refinancing bonds issued a total of 2.77 billion yuan. In 2025, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue special bonds for replacing implicit debts, totaling 168.35 billion yuan. Among them, Jiangsu, Shandong, Sichuan, and Hubei plan to issue 25.11 billion yuan, 10.6 billion yuan, 9.84 billion yuan, and 8.08 billion yuan respectively [2]. - **Issuance Spreads**: This week, the weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds was 10.1bp, wider than last week. The 30 - year local government bonds had the highest weighted average issuance spread, reaching 21.4bp. Except for the 7 - year, 15 - year, and 30 - year bonds, the spreads of other terms widened [1]. - **Allocation of Raised Funds**: As of the end of this week, the main allocation directions of raised funds for new special bonds in 2025 are cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (32%), transportation infrastructure (21%), social undertakings (12%), and affordable housing projects (12%). The proportion of land reserve allocation increased by 7.7% compared to 2024 [2]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, 36 regions have disclosed the local government bond issuance plan for the second quarter of 2025. Considering the actual issuance scale in April and May, the total planned issuance for the second quarter is 2.35 trillion yuan, with 880.6 billion yuan planned for June. The planned issuance of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the second quarter is 1286.8 billion yuan and 1066.5 billion yuan respectively [3]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spreads**: This week, the 15 - year and 30 - year local government bonds had advantageous secondary spreads, with the 1 - year bonds having a relatively large widening amplitude. The 15 - year and 30 - year secondary spreads were 21.5bp and 20.6bp respectively. From the historical quantile of the past three years, the 30 - year secondary spread was at a high quantile of 90%. Regionally, local government bonds over 20 - year in all types of regions had higher secondary spreads, and 10 - 15 - year bonds in medium - level regions also had relatively higher spreads [4][5]. - **Trading Volume and Turnover Rate**: This week, both the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds decreased. Sichuan, Shandong, and Shanxi had higher turnover rates. The trading volume this week was 355.4 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.70%. The trading volumes of Sichuan, Shandong, and Guangdong were 39.1 billion yuan, 37.3 billion yuan, and 28 billion yuan respectively, and the turnover rates of Sichuan, Shandong, and Shanxi were all higher than 1.1% [5].

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 06 月 08 日 白银技术突破，继续推荐黄金稀土板块 金属行业周报 周期/金属及材料 美国就业数据超预期，提示美国经济尚未出现衰退，美股美债美元走强。美联 储降息 9 月降息概率下降。黄金短期压力大，但是银价技术突破和铂价大涨， 也印证了市场对于黄金未来价格依然看涨。继续强烈推荐黄金，反制品种稀土 磁材、钨板块。此外，关注自主可控相关以及时间友好的科技、机器人、可控 核聚变等相关材料标的。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 235 | 4.6 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 4079.0 | 4.7 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 3789.0 | 4.8 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 5.2 4.1 20.9 相对表现 3.5 6.6 13.1 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 Jun/24 Sep/24 Jan/25 May/25 (%) 金属及材料 沪深300 相关报告 1、《金属行业周报—关税问题反复， 继续推荐黄金板块》 ...

Group 1: Recent Developments - On June 5, a call took place between the leaders of China and the U.S., where Trump emphasized the importance of U.S.-China relations and expressed willingness to work together on agreements reached in Geneva[7] - The U.S. is engaged in new trade negotiations with India and Japan, focusing on tariff discussions and market access[4] - A public dispute erupted between Trump and Musk, highlighting internal political divisions within the Trump administration[8] Group 2: Upcoming Events and Risks - The U.S.-China London talks are scheduled for June 9, with a focus on non-tariff issues and technology restrictions[13] - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly in the Middle East and Ukraine, are expected to continue affecting U.S. foreign policy and diplomatic efforts[17] - Long-term risks include a potential rebalancing of major power relations, with U.S. trade policies increasingly focusing on strategic supply chains and key industries[19]

- Model Name: Short-term Quantitative Timing Model; Model Construction Idea: The model aims to provide short-term market timing signals based on various market indicators; Model Construction Process: The model evaluates four main aspects: fundamentals, valuation, sentiment, and liquidity. Each aspect is assessed using specific indicators such as PMI, loan growth, M1 growth, PE and PB ratios, beta dispersion, trading volume sentiment, volatility, interest rates, exchange rate expectations, and financing amounts. The signals from these indicators are combined to generate an overall market timing signal. For example, the formula for the fundamental signal is based on the PMI and loan growth: $$ \text{Fundamental Signal} = \text{PMI} \times \text{Loan Growth} $$ where PMI represents the manufacturing PMI index and Loan Growth represents the year-on-year growth rate of medium and long-term loans in RMB. Model Evaluation: The model has shown significant improvement over the benchmark in terms of annualized returns and maximum drawdown reduction[19][22][23] - Model Name: Growth-Value Style Rotation Model; Model Construction Idea: The model aims to rotate between growth and value styles based on economic cycles and market conditions; Model Construction Process: The model uses a quantitative economic cycle analysis framework to assess the profitability cycle, interest rate cycle, and credit cycle. For example, the profitability cycle slope is calculated as: $$ \text{Profitability Cycle Slope} = \frac{\text{Current Profitability} - \text{Previous Profitability}}{\text{Time Period}} $$ The model also considers valuation differences (PE and PB ratios) and sentiment differences (turnover and volatility). The signals from these indicators are combined to generate a style rotation recommendation. Model Evaluation: The model has shown significant improvement over the benchmark in terms of annualized returns and maximum drawdown reduction[31][32][33] - Model Name: Small-Cap vs. Large-Cap Style Rotation Model; Model Construction Idea: The model aims to rotate between small-cap and large-cap styles based on economic cycles and market conditions; Model Construction Process: Similar to the Growth-Value Style Rotation Model, this model uses a quantitative economic cycle analysis framework to assess the profitability cycle, interest rate cycle, and credit cycle. It also considers valuation differences (PE and PB ratios) and sentiment differences (turnover and volatility). The signals from these indicators are combined to generate a style rotation recommendation. Model Evaluation: The model has shown significant improvement over the benchmark in terms of annualized returns and maximum drawdown reduction[35][36][37] - Model Name: Four-Style Rotation Model; Model Construction Idea: The model combines the Growth-Value and Small-Cap vs. Large-Cap Style Rotation Models to provide a comprehensive style rotation strategy; Model Construction Process: The model integrates the signals from the Growth-Value and Small-Cap vs. Large-Cap Style Rotation Models to recommend allocations across four styles: small-cap growth, small-cap value, large-cap growth, and large-cap value. The recommended allocation is based on the combined signals from the underlying models. Model Evaluation: The model has shown significant improvement over the benchmark in terms of annualized returns and maximum drawdown reduction[39][40][41] Model Backtest Results - Short-term Quantitative Timing Model: Annualized Return 16.27%, Annualized Volatility 14.73%, Maximum Drawdown 27.70%, Sharpe Ratio 0.9620, IR 0.5875[22][27] - Growth-Value Style Rotation Model: Annualized Return 11.35%, Annualized Volatility 20.89%, Maximum Drawdown 43.07%, Sharpe Ratio 0.5239, IR 0.2634[32][34] - Small-Cap vs. Large-Cap Style Rotation Model: Annualized Return 11.99%, Annualized Volatility 22.79%, Maximum Drawdown 50.65%, Sharpe Ratio 0.5241, IR 0.2367[36][38] - Four-Style Rotation Model: Annualized Return 12.90%, Annualized Volatility 21.64%, Maximum Drawdown 47.91%, Sharpe Ratio 0.5776, IR 0.2693[40][41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant year-on-year decline in both new and second-hand housing transaction areas since June, with the decline rate expanding [1][9] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with indicators suggesting a potential stabilization in the real estate market, driven by policy adjustments and liquidity improvements [5][49] Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - New housing transaction areas in sample cities have seen a year-on-year decline of 25%, which is an increase of 12 percentage points compared to May [4] - The decline in new housing transactions is particularly pronounced in second-tier cities, with a year-on-year drop of 28% [4][9] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - Second-hand housing transaction areas also experienced a year-on-year decline of 24%, with a similar expansion in the decline rate compared to May [4] - The report notes that the second-hand housing market is facing a more severe contraction than the new housing market [5] Land Acquisition - From January to May 2025, the cumulative land transaction area in 300 cities has seen a year-on-year decline of 7%, while the average transaction price has increased by 31% [21] - The report indicates that the land acquisition market is experiencing a mixed trend, with some cities showing significant price increases despite declining transaction volumes [21][26] Market Indicators - The report mentions that the confidence index for new and second-hand housing transactions has shown a marginal decline, indicating a cautious outlook among buyers [5][51] - The overall market sentiment index for 50 cities has also shown a narrowing year-on-year increase, reflecting a more subdued market environment [5][52] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the new housing market may see marginal improvements before the second-hand market, driven by supply constraints and quality enhancements [5] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring high-quality residential supply and the narrowing gap between net rental returns and mortgage rates as key variables for future market performance [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced a slight decline of -0.1% during the week of June 1 to June 7, while the overall market indices showed positive growth [2][10]. - Notable sales performances were reported by several companies, with BYD achieving sales of 377,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 14.1% [1]. - Leap Motor maintained its position as the top new force in vehicle sales, delivering 45,067 units in May, marking a year-on-year increase of 148.1% [20]. - NIO reported a revenue growth of over 20% in Q1 2025, although it faced a net loss of 6.89 billion yuan, which was an increase from the previous year's loss [21]. Market Performance Overview - The automotive sector's secondary segments mostly saw gains, with the motorcycle and other segments rising by 3.6% [10]. - The commercial vehicle segment, however, faced a significant decline of -5.4% during the same period [10]. - Individual stocks within the automotive sector showed varied performance, with notable gainers including Chaojie Co. (+28.4%) and Xiamen Xinda (+21.3%) [3][13]. Recent Developments - Xiaopeng Motors announced a collaboration with Huawei to launch an AR-HUD solution, enhancing the driving experience with AI integration [25]. - Xiaomi's automotive business is expected to narrow its losses and potentially achieve profitability by Q3 or Q4 of this year [22]. - Dongfeng Motor has entered the Polish market with three major brands, indicating a strategic move towards international expansion [23]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong sales performance or potential blockbuster vehicles, such as BYD, Seres, Great Wall Motors, and Jianghuai Automobile [7]. - In the commercial vehicle sector, it highlights Yutong Bus, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, and Weichai Power as key investment opportunities [7]. - For auto parts, it suggests investing in companies with cost and product advantages, including Fuyao Glass and Top Group [7].