Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Style Factors 1. **Factor Name**: Beta Factor - **Construction Idea**: Captures the market sensitivity of stocks - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the daily returns of individual stocks and the market index (CSI All Share Index) over the past 252 trading days - Perform an exponentially weighted regression with a half-life of 63 trading days - The regression coefficient is taken as the Beta factor - **Evaluation**: High Beta stocks outperformed low Beta stocks in the recent week, indicating a preference for market-sensitive stocks[15][16] 2. **Factor Name**: Leverage Factor - **Construction Idea**: Measures the financial leverage of companies - **Construction Process**: - Calculate three sub-factors: Market Leverage (MLEV), Debt to Assets (DTOA), and Book Leverage (BLEV) - MLEV = Non-current liabilities / Total market value - DTOA = Total liabilities / Total assets - BLEV = Non-current liabilities / Shareholders' equity - Combine the three sub-factors equally to form the Leverage factor - **Evaluation**: Low leverage companies outperformed high leverage companies, indicating a market preference for financially stable companies[15][16] 3. **Factor Name**: Growth Factor - **Construction Idea**: Measures the growth potential of companies - **Construction Process**: - Calculate two sub-factors: Sales Growth (SGRO) and Earnings Growth (EGRO) - SGRO = Regression slope of past five years' annual sales per share divided by the average sales per share - EGRO = Regression slope of past five years' annual earnings per share divided by the average earnings per share - Combine the two sub-factors equally to form the Growth factor - **Evaluation**: The Growth factor showed a negative return, indicating a decline in market preference for high-growth stocks[15][16] Stock Selection Factors 1. **Factor Name**: Single Quarter ROA - **Construction Idea**: Measures the return on assets for a single quarter - **Construction Process**: - Single Quarter ROA = Net income attributable to parent company / Total assets - **Evaluation**: Performed well in the CSI 300 stock pool over the past week[21][24] 2. **Factor Name**: 240-Day Skewness - **Construction Idea**: Measures the skewness of daily returns over the past 240 trading days - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the skewness of daily returns over the past 240 trading days - **Evaluation**: Performed well in the CSI 300 stock pool over the past week[21][24] 3. **Factor Name**: Single Quarter ROE - **Construction Idea**: Measures the return on equity for a single quarter - **Construction Process**: - Single Quarter ROE = Net income attributable to parent company / Shareholders' equity - **Evaluation**: Performed well in the CSI 300 stock pool over the past week[21][24] Factor Backtesting Results 1. **Beta Factor**: Weekly long-short return: 1.86%, Monthly long-short return: 1.64%[17] 2. **Leverage Factor**: Weekly long-short return: -3.07%, Monthly long-short return: -1.58%[17] 3. **Growth Factor**: Weekly long-short return: -1.73%, Monthly long-short return: -5.13%[17] Stock Selection Factor Backtesting Results 1. **Single Quarter ROA**: Weekly excess return: 0.98%, Monthly excess return: 2.61%, Annual excess return: 9.49%, Ten-year annualized return: 3.69%[22] 2. **240-Day Skewness**: Weekly excess return: 0.75%, Monthly excess return: 2.48%, Annual excess return: 6.40%, Ten-year annualized return: 2.85%[22] 3. **Single Quarter ROE**: Weekly excess return: 0.74%, Monthly excess return: 1.55%, Annual excess return: 8.96%, Ten-year annualized return: 3.46%[22]

Group 1: Q3 Refinancing Meeting Insights - The Q3 refinancing meeting maintained the long-term bond issuance pace while moderately increasing short-term bond issuance and long-term bond repurchases[7] - The Treasury Department announced a doubling of the repurchase frequency for 10-20 year and 20-30 year bonds, increasing the quarterly repurchase limit from $8 billion to $16 billion[10] - The estimated financing needs for the next three years show little change, with a total decrease of $14 billion compared to April estimates[18] Group 2: Supply Shock and Interest Rate Outlook - The risk of a supply shock in U.S. Treasury bonds is considered low for the remainder of 2023, with upward pressure on bond yields significantly reduced[20] - Short-term interest rate pressures are manageable, with the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield rising approximately 30 basis points from March to October 2023[20] - Long-term bond issuance increases have pushed long-term bond yields and term premiums higher, with yields rising over 130 basis points from June to October 2023[23] Group 3: Economic Data and Rate Expectations - The Federal Reserve's decisions will increasingly depend on economic data, with potential scenarios for CPI and employment data influencing interest rate expectations[32] - The Jackson Hole meeting in August is highlighted as a critical time for potential interest rate guidance, with expectations of a 50 basis point cut if inflation remains within the 2.8-3.0% range[32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Hisense Home Appliances [3] Core Views - The company is currently facing operational pressure but is expected to see a turnaround in its performance. The revenue for H1 2025 was 49.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.08 billion yuan, up 3% year-on-year. However, Q2 2025 saw a decline in revenue by 3% and a net profit decrease of 8% [1][2] Financial Data and Valuation - Projected total revenue for 2023 is 85.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15%. This is expected to grow to 99.6 billion yuan by 2025, with a growth rate of 7% [2][14] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to reach 3.68 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 10% increase from the previous year [2][14] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 2.66 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 10.2 [2][14] - The company has a return on equity (ROE) of 21.3% and a debt-to-asset ratio of 73.9% [3] Product Performance - In Q2 2025, the air conditioning segment saw a year-on-year increase in domestic and foreign sales of 6% and 17%, respectively. However, both segments experienced negative growth in Q2 due to industry price wars and high base effects from the previous year [6] - The refrigerator segment reported a 4% increase in domestic sales and a 2% increase in foreign sales, with improved profitability in foreign sales due to enhanced brand strength [6] - The central air conditioning segment experienced a revenue decline of 6% in H1 2025, attributed to a sluggish real estate market, but maintains strong brand power in the renovation market [6] Investment Outlook - The report suggests that the domestic consumption support policies will positively impact the company's performance, with a strong growth outlook for 2025-2027. The projected net profits for these years are 3.7 billion yuan, 4.2 billion yuan, and 4.9 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 10%, 15%, and 15% [6][2]

证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2025 年 08 月 01 日 业务量快速增长，反内卷利好行业价格与估值修复 快递行业 2025 年 6 月数据跟踪 周期/交通运输 本月关注：关注 25 年价格竞争情况和行业估值修复潜力。 ❑ 快递行业核心数据：1）量，2025 年 6 月，全国快递业务量完成 168.7 亿件， 同比增长 15.8%；2）收入，快递业务收入完成 1263.2 亿元，同比增长 9.0%；3） 价格，单票收入为 7.49 元，同比下降 5.9%；4）消费数据，6 月全国社零总额为 4.23 万亿元，同比增长 4.8%；1-6 月，累计社零总额为 24.55 万亿元，同比增长 5.0%，其中实物商品网上零售额 6.12 万亿元，同比增长 6.0%。 ❑ 上市快递公司核心数据：1）量，2025 年 6 月顺丰/圆通/韵达/申通分别完成业 务量 14.6/26.3/21.7/21.8 亿票，同比增速分别为 31.8%/19.3%/7.4%/11.1%；2）价 格，6 月顺丰/圆通/韵达/申通单票价格分别为 13.7/2.1/1.9/2.0 元，同比变动分别 为-13.3%/-6.5%/-4.5%/- ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the AI PCB sector, indicating strong growth potential driven by AI demand and product upgrades [1][8]. Core Insights - North American cloud service providers (CSPs) have reported better-than-expected Q2 performance, leading to upward revisions in future capital expenditure (Capex) forecasts, indicating sustained demand for AI computing power [1][2]. - The AI PCB product upgrade trend is expected to significantly enhance the average selling price (ASP) of AI PCBs, driven by advancements in technology and increased complexity in design [3][7]. - The report emphasizes that the expansion of AI PCB production capacity is unlikely to lead to oversupply in the short to medium term, as demand continues to outpace supply due to high technical barriers and increasing design specifications [8][9]. Summary by Sections AI Computing Power Trends - Major CSPs like Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon have increased their AI Capex forecasts significantly, with Google raising its 2025 Capex from $75 billion to $85 billion, a year-on-year increase of 62% [2]. - The demand for AI computing power is expected to remain robust, with significant investments in AI infrastructure across the industry [2]. AI PCB Product Upgrade Trends - The introduction of next-generation AI server products, such as NVIDIA's Rubin series, is anticipated to require higher-layer HDI and advanced CCL materials, which will increase the value of AI PCBs [3][7]. - The report highlights that the complexity and performance requirements of AI PCBs are increasing, leading to a higher demand for advanced materials and manufacturing techniques [7][10]. Impact of PCB Capacity Expansion - A number of PCB manufacturers in China are planning significant capacity expansions to meet the growing demand for AI PCBs, with companies like Huadian and Pengding Holdings announcing substantial investments [8][9]. - The report suggests that the competitive landscape will favor leading manufacturers with established relationships and technological advantages, reinforcing a "stronger gets stronger" trend in the industry [8][9]. Upstream Material Impact - The demand for high-end materials such as M8/M9 CCL and specialty fiberglass is expected to rise sharply, with a projected CAGR of 26% for high-end CCL materials from 2024 to 2026 [10]. - The supply of these materials is currently constrained, presenting opportunities for domestic manufacturers to increase their market share in high-end product segments [10]. Equipment Demand from PCB Expansion - The expansion of high-end PCB production is expected to drive demand for advanced PCB manufacturing equipment, with the market for PCB-specific equipment projected to grow significantly [11][12]. - Domestic equipment manufacturers are likely to benefit from this trend, particularly in areas such as drilling and exposure equipment, as they seek to replace imported high-end equipment [11][12].

Overall Inventory Cycle - In May, the total inventory in the U.S. increased by 2.62% year-on-year, down from 3.15% in the previous period[12] - Sales in May rose by 3.30% year-on-year, compared to 3.68% previously[12] - The U.S. is confirmed to be entering an active destocking phase, with a significant import surge occurring from November 2024 to March 2025[12] - A brief replenishment demand is expected in June and July, after which active destocking will continue[12] Industry Inventory Cycle - Six out of fourteen major industries are in active destocking as of May, including oil, gas, chemicals, transportation, automotive parts, textiles, and food[19] - The historical percentile for overall inventory in May is 32.4%, with construction materials at 83.6% and chemicals at 69.3%[19] - The first round of excess imports is estimated at $180 billion and the second at $100 billion, totaling $280 billion, which may be exhausted by November[12] - Recent rapid declines in copper prices are attributed to a 50% tariff on copper products while exempting raw materials, disrupting supply and demand dynamics[13] Risk Factors - The potential for U.S. economic fundamentals and policies to exceed expectations poses a risk to inventory and pricing stability[8]

Economic Growth - The initial estimate of the US GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 is 3.0%, a significant increase from the previous value of -0.5%[1] - Net exports contributed 5.0 percentage points to GDP growth, reversing the previous drag of 4.6 percentage points[1] Consumer Spending - Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) grew at an annualized rate of 1.4% in Q2 2025, up from 0.5% in the previous quarter, contributing 1.0 percentage point to GDP growth[1] - Goods consumption increased to 2.2% from 0.1%, while services consumption rose to 1.1% from 0.6%[1] Investment Trends - Non-residential fixed investment recorded a growth of 1.9%, down from 10.3%, contributing 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth[1] - Residential investment declined by 4.6%, worsening from a previous decline of 1.3%, detracting 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth[1] Inventory and Government Spending - Inventory investment negatively impacted GDP growth by 3.2 percentage points, a shift from a positive contribution of 2.6 percentage points in the previous quarter[1] - Government spending contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth, with federal government spending detracting 0.2 percentage points[1] Trade Dynamics - The trade deficit for May 2025 was recorded at $71.517 billion, with a goods trade deficit of $96.423 billion and a services trade surplus of $25.994 billion[1] - The impact of "import rush" has diminished, leading to a rapid narrowing of the trade deficit, which has now become a contributor to GDP growth[1]

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds target rate at 4.25%-4.50% and kept the balance sheet reduction pace unchanged at $50 billion per month for U.S. Treasuries and $35 billion per month for MBS[5] - Powell expressed concerns about stagflation risks, indicating that as long as the inflation gap exceeds the employment gap, the Fed will find it difficult to lower interest rates[7] Inflation and Tariffs - As of May, the actual tariff rate for the U.S. was approximately 9.6%, with potential increases to 15%-16% after new tariffs take effect on August 1, and possibly up to 18%-19% when considering specific goods[2] - The effective tariff rate could pose an inflation risk of 30-60 basis points, with the impact on inflation data expected to manifest in September and further affect October-November figures[2] Market Outlook - Short-term volatility in U.S. stocks is anticipated, but the medium-term outlook remains bullish due to trade agreements and supportive government policies[3] - The market currently prices a 45.2% probability of a rate cut in September, indicating that the risk-free rate is no longer a positive factor[8] Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy grew by 1.2% in the first half of the year, down from 2.5% the previous year, with consumer spending slowing and real estate remaining weak[4] - Labor market conditions are showing synchronized declines in demand and supply, with a focus on the unemployment rate as a key indicator[6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - policy in the second half of the year is set to "continue to exert force and increase force in a timely manner" to promote the recovery of domestic demand and achieve the annual GDP growth target of 5% [2][3]. - The "anti - involution" policy will be steadily advanced, and it is expected that CPI and PPI will rise moderately in the second half of the year [4]. - Fiscal policy emphasizes accelerating the issuance and use of government bonds, and attention should be paid to whether there will be additional fiscal measures in the fourth quarter [4][5]. - Monetary policy maintains a loose tone, with structural monetary policy tools as the focus, and the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies will be strengthened [7]. - The bond market will experience increased volatility, and the investment strategy should be defensive [8]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Macro - policy orientation - The macro - policy in the second half of the year needs to continue and increase force to consolidate the economic recovery and achieve the 5% GDP growth target. It aims to release domestic demand potential by promoting consumption and expanding effective investment [2][3]. II. "Anti - involution" and price trends - The "anti - involution" policy will be advanced to promote the balance of supply and demand and the return of prices to a reasonable level. It is expected that CPI and PPI will rise steadily in the second half of the year, and attention should be paid to the implementation of capacity governance measures in key industries [4]. III. Fiscal policy - The fiscal policy is set to be more proactive. As of July 30, the cumulative issuance of local new general bonds was 538.3 billion with a progress of 67.3%, and that of local new special bonds was 277.6 billion with a progress of 63.13%. Attention should be paid to whether there will be additional fiscal measures in the fourth quarter [4][5]. IV. Monetary policy - Monetary policy will maintain a loose tone, with structural monetary policy tools as the focus. The coordination between monetary and fiscal policies will be strengthened to keep liquidity abundant and lower the comprehensive social financing cost [7]. V. Bond market strategy - The influence of the stock market on the bond market has increased, bringing re - pricing pressure on long - term bonds. The short - term risk of a bearish bond market is low. The investment strategy suggests that the 10 - year treasury bond rate of 1.75% - 1.8% has allocation value, and attention can be paid to the allocation value of short - duration and 7 - 10 - year credit bonds after adjustment [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company focuses on digital power grids and smart cities, possessing comprehensive solutions for the energy IoT sector. With the acceleration of the new power system transformation and the promotion of smart city construction, domestic business is expected to continue expanding. Additionally, the company is actively seizing overseas development opportunities, particularly in emerging markets such as the Middle East and Southeast Asia, leading to anticipated high growth in overseas revenue [2][7]. - The company reported a revenue of 1.368 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.88%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 305 million yuan, up 12.24% year-on-year [1][2]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue is projected to reach 3.358 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 22%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 770 million yuan, also reflecting a 22% growth [3][14]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.57 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 22.0x [3][15]. - The overseas revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 283 million yuan, accounting for 20.82% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 25.75% [7][14]. Business Expansion and Market Position - The company is enhancing its overseas localized production capacity, with the establishment of a manufacturing base in Indonesia and plans for factories in Saudi Arabia and Mexico. This dual approach of trade and localized production is expected to drive future growth in overseas business contributions [7][14]. - The report highlights that the national grid's investment in 2025 is expected to exceed 650 billion yuan, marking a historical high, which will significantly benefit the company as it participates in the construction of the new power system [7][14].