Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" due to favorable fundamentals and expected outperformance of the industry index against the benchmark index [2][7]. Core Insights - The TDI industry is experiencing significant supply disruptions due to a fire at Covestro's German plant, which has led to a production halt of 300,000 tons/year TDI. Additionally, Wanhua Chemical's Hungarian plant is undergoing maintenance, affecting 250,000 tons/year TDI capacity [1][5]. - European TDI supply is expected to be severely impacted, with the region accounting for approximately 16% of global TDI capacity. The combined capacity of the affected plants in Europe is 550,000 tons [5]. - Nearly 50% of global TDI production capacity is anticipated to be affected, with domestic maintenance also contributing to supply tightness. By August, domestic maintenance impacts are expected to reach 1.01 million tons, representing 30% of global capacity [5]. - TDI prices have begun to rebound from historical lows, increasing from 11,000 CNY/ton to 15,925 CNY/ton, a rise of over 40%. Historical peaks for TDI prices have exceeded 50,000 CNY/ton [5]. - Strong attention is recommended for Cangzhou Dahua and Wanhua Chemical, with profit increases projected for each 1,000 CNY/ton rise in TDI prices, amounting to 830 million CNY for Wanhua and 120 million CNY for Cangzhou [5]. Industry Overview - The TDI industry is characterized by a global capacity of approximately 3.4 million tons, with over 70% of production concentrated in Asia, primarily in China [5]. - The report highlights the ongoing trend of overseas production capacity contraction, particularly in Europe and the US, due to high production costs and plant closures [5].

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 07 月 22 日 常熟银行（601128.SH） 业绩坚挺，等待溢价 总量研究/银行 2025 年 7 月 21 日，常熟银行披露 2025 年半年度业绩快报，营收保持两位数 的相对高增长，归母净利润稳健中高速增长，不良率稳定，拨备覆盖率稳定。 核心观点： ❑ 风险提示：经济下行超预期；宏观政策力度不及预期；存款竞争加剧。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 9870 | 10909 | 11763 | 12481 | 13350 | | 同比增长 | 12.1% | 10.5% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 7.0% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 4053 | 4869 | 5206 | 5665 | 6080 | | 同比增长 | 20.5% | 20.1% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 7.3% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 3282 | 3813 | 4222 | 4 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [4][5]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading domestic player in ultrasound and endoscopy, with a comprehensive product matrix and strong technological accumulation, driving rapid growth through R&D breakthroughs and import substitution [1][13]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the recovery of terminal procurement, which is expected to release performance elasticity in the short term [1][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Dual-Engine Growth of Ultrasound and Endoscopy - The company has established a strong competitive advantage in the medical device market, with a product line covering ultrasound imaging, endoscopy, minimally invasive surgery, and cardiovascular intervention [13]. - The ultrasound business is expected to generate revenue of 1.183 billion yuan in 2024, while the endoscopy business is projected to reach 795 million yuan, with a five-year CAGR of 22.18% [2][29]. 2. Product Line Highlights - The company is a pioneer in developing core technologies for color Doppler ultrasound equipment, with plans to launch an AI detection technology for obstetric ultrasound in 2025 [2][15]. - The endoscopy market is experiencing rapid growth, with the company enhancing its product offerings and achieving clinical recognition [3][16]. 3. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 2.412 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20%, and net profit is expected to be 359 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 152% [4][9]. - The company has maintained a stable revenue growth trajectory, with a CAGR of 11.58% from 2018 to 2023 [25]. 4. Management and Ownership Structure - The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with the founders holding a combined 44.24% of shares, ensuring stability in management [19][23]. - The management team possesses extensive experience in the medical device industry, contributing to the company's strategic direction [23][24]. 5. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company ranks second among domestic manufacturers in the ultrasound market and third in the domestic endoscopy market, with significant growth potential in high-end segments [29][46]. - The report highlights the ongoing shift towards domestic high-end product replacement, indicating a favorable competitive landscape for the company [46].

证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2025 年 07 月 21 日 港股占比创历史新高，重点增配科技及金融 ——主动及被动基金持仓分析 2025Q2 2025Q2 主被动基金规模均有回升，各类型主动基金仓位普遍回升，同时持股 集中度进一步下降，港股持有比例再创历史新高，加仓方向上主要围绕科技、 大金融、军工医药展开，成长及小市值因子偏好继续回升。被动基金风格则更 加偏好金融、大盘价值。 ❑ 2025Q2 主被动基金规模均有回升。2025 年二季度以来 A 股探底修复，投资 者风险偏好提升，成长风格整体占优叠加 AI、创新药各类产业趋势提速，主 动基金业绩规模继续双增。与此同时，被动基金规模在 4 月初国家队入市维 稳推动下同样迎来大幅净申购。主动基金净流出规模收窄，被动基金净流入。 各类型主动基金仓位普遍回升，同时持股集中度进一步下降。 ❑ 2025Q2 主动偏股基金加仓思路主要围绕科技、大金融、军工医药展开，持 仓风格偏小盘成长风格。一是聚焦 AI 算力为代表的科技主线，重点加仓通信。 二季度以来 AI 板块持续高景气，各大厂商纷纷加大 AI 相关的资本性开支， 进一步带动 AI 服务器、AI 芯片、光模块等 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant price increases in TDI and Vitamin D3, suggesting a focus on the TDI and organic silicon sectors [1][5]. - The chemical sector outperformed the market, with a weekly increase of 1.77%, surpassing the Shanghai A-share index by 1.08 percentage points [2][15]. - Key stocks that performed well include Dongcai Technology (+33.16%) and Cangzhou Dahua (+28.47%), while stocks like Guangxin Materials (-9.26%) and Ando A (-9.05%) saw declines [2][15]. Industry Performance - In the third week of July, 20 sub-industries within the chemical sector saw increases, with the top five being modified plastics (+7.42%) and phosphate chemicals (+7.41%) [3][19]. - The dynamic PE ratio for the chemical sector is reported at 25.83 times, which is lower than the average PE of 30.02 times since 2015 [2][15]. Price and Spread Trends - The report lists the top five products with the highest weekly price increases: liquid chlorine (+21.78%), TDI (+18.83%), and Vitamin D3 (+10%) [4][22]. - The report also notes significant changes in price spreads, with the ethylene spread increasing by 81.82% and PTA spread decreasing by 357.81% [4][43]. Inventory Changes - Notable inventory changes include an increase in epoxy propane (+11.97%) and a decrease in ethylene (-8.57%) [5][61]. Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Cangzhou Dahua and Wanhua Chemical due to the significant rise in TDI prices [5]. - Attention is also drawn to organic silicon producers like Xin'an Chemical and Xinfeng Group, following a fire incident affecting supply [5].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company, Zhaoyan New Drug, is positioned as a leader in the domestic CRO industry, particularly in safety evaluation, with comprehensive GLP qualifications and strategic resources in experimental monkeys. The company is expected to benefit from rising prices of experimental monkeys due to supply constraints and strong demand [1][8]. - The report highlights the mismatch between supply and demand for experimental monkeys, which is driving a price recovery trend. The aging population of breeding monkeys and the long breeding cycle are significant factors affecting supply [2][8]. - The company is expanding its offshore outsourcing business, which is anticipated to create a new growth engine, alongside the recovery of domestic demand [8][42]. Financial Data and Valuation - The projected financial performance shows total revenue decreasing from 2,377 million in 2023 to 1,977 million in 2025E, with a subsequent recovery to 2,468 million by 2027E. The net profit is expected to rebound significantly from 74 million in 2024 to 352 million in 2025E [3][4]. - The company’s PE ratio is projected to be 39.8 in 2025E, decreasing to 24.4 by 2027E, indicating an improving valuation as earnings recover [3][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of experimental monkeys is constrained due to an aging population and a long breeding cycle, with over 80% of breeding females being over 8 years old as of 2023. This has led to a significant decline in breeding rates [8][19]. - Demand for experimental monkeys is expected to improve, particularly for biopharmaceutical research, as over 70% of large molecule drugs require monkeys for preclinical trials [26][28]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has made strategic acquisitions, including monkey breeding facilities, to enhance its supply chain and reduce costs, thereby increasing profitability [8][60]. - The offshore outsourcing strategy is showing positive results, with higher gross margins from overseas orders, which is expected to enhance overall profitability [52][54]. Management and Governance - The management team has extensive experience in drug safety evaluation and a solid governance structure, with key figures holding significant shares in the company [36][40].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [1][4]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leader in the coal industry with a vertically integrated business model encompassing coal, electricity, transportation, and coal chemical sectors, which enhances its resilience against industry cyclicality [4][11]. - The company has a robust financial management capability, maintaining a low debt level and high cash flow, which supports a high dividend payout ratio [4][11]. - The coal supply-demand balance is shifting towards tight equilibrium, providing support for future coal prices [4][11]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, China Shenhua Energy Co., Ltd., is a flagship listed company under the State Energy Investment Group, with significant coal reserves and a diversified energy portfolio [11][13]. - As of the end of 2024, the company holds coal resources of 344 billion tons and a recoverable reserve of 151 billion tons, making it a dominant player in the industry [4][11]. Industry Analysis - The coal industry is experiencing limited production growth due to resource constraints and a shift towards energy transition, leading to a tighter supply-demand balance [4][33]. - The demand for thermal coal is expected to rise as the economy recovers, supporting price stability [4][33]. Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 338.4 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 1.37% year-on-year, with a net profit of 58.67 billion yuan, down 1.71% [5][23]. - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with a proposed cash dividend of 2.26 yuan per share for 2024, reflecting a dividend rate of 76.5% [4][31]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts a net profit of 23.6 billion to 25.6 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with expected revenue growth in the coming years [4][5]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 277.77 billion, 302.72 billion, and 337.41 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 48.54 billion, 50.15 billion, and 52.52 billion yuan [4][5].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that under the "anti-involution" policy, high-concentration chemical products are more resilient, as they can better implement industry self-discipline and production cuts, leading to a smaller resistance to industry recovery [2][13]. - The report identifies that the gradual implementation of the "anti-involution" policy is expected to bring marginal changes to the chemical supply side, particularly benefiting high-concentration chemical products through self-regulation and potential production cut agreements [13][14]. - The report highlights that products with high technical barriers and fewer domestic alternative producers are expected to have broader market prospects and a favorable competitive landscape [2][14]. Group 2 - The report provides a systematic review of high-concentration chemical products, listing key products such as Vitamin A, Glyphosate, Paraquat, and others, along with their market concentration ratios and major domestic producers [14][15]. - The report notes that the chemical industry has seen a rebound in prices after a two-year bottoming phase, driven by supply-side disruptions and a replenishment cycle in demand [2][13]. - The report indicates that the chemical industry is currently characterized by intense competition and declining profitability, with many companies adopting low-price competition strategies [2][13].

Investment Rating - Strongly Recommended (Maintain) [3] Core Views - The report highlights that the Zongshen Aviation CA500 piston engine has successfully completed airworthiness review, filling the gap in domestic light sport aviation power [1][6] - The CA500 engine is set to become the first domestic aviation power product to meet CAAC airworthiness requirements and ASTM F2339 international standards, showcasing advanced materials and high efficiency [6] - The company is positioned as a leading enterprise in general power machinery and motorcycle engines in China, benefiting from the growth in military drones and low-altitude economy [6] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 8,151 million yuan in 2023 to 18,701 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15% [2][8] - Operating profit is expected to increase significantly from 428 million yuan in 2023 to 1,853 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 126% in 2025 [2][8] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rise from 362 million yuan in 2023 to 1,444 million yuan in 2027, with a notable increase of 134% in 2025 [2][8] - Earnings per share (EPS) is anticipated to grow from 0.32 yuan in 2023 to 1.26 yuan in 2027 [2][8] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 75.3 in 2023 to 18.9 in 2027, indicating improved valuation as earnings grow [2][8] Stock Performance - The stock has shown strong absolute performance, with a 12-month increase of 144% compared to the CSI 300 index [5] - The current stock price is 23.82 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 27.3 billion yuan [3] Company Overview - Zongshen Power has established five aviation piston engine platforms and over 20 aviation piston power products, breaking the foreign monopoly in this sector [6] - The company has successfully exported products to over 30 countries, including Germany, France, and Italy, and has obtained airworthiness certifications in France and Germany [6]

Core Insights - The report indicates a decrease in the unsold inventory turnover cycle for new construction in June compared to May, suggesting a potential improvement in market conditions [1] - The overall net signed area for new and second-hand homes has shown a year-on-year decline, with the rate of decline for new homes at -22% and for second-hand homes at -9% as of July 17 [4][10] - The report highlights a significant drop in the average number of viewings for second-hand homes, which decreased by 8.3% month-on-month, indicating a shift in market dynamics [5][46] New Home Market - The year-on-year decline in new home signed area has expanded, with the current figures being higher than the levels seen in the past four years [10][12] - The report notes that the average signed area for new homes in sample cities has decreased compared to the same period last year, reflecting ongoing market challenges [12][20] Second-Hand Home Market - Similar to new homes, the second-hand home market has also experienced an expanded year-on-year decline in signed area, with the current figures indicating a more significant contraction [14][16] - The report emphasizes that the average signed area for second-hand homes is also below the levels recorded in previous years, suggesting persistent market weakness [16][20] Land Acquisition - The cumulative land transaction area from January to June has shown a year-on-year decline of 5%, but the average transaction price has increased by 33% compared to the previous year [22][28] - The report indicates that the land acquisition data includes residential, comprehensive, and commercial/office land, providing a comprehensive view of market activity [25][32] Inventory and Turnover - The report notes that the inventory of unsold new construction and the turnover cycle have marginally decreased compared to May, while the inventory of unsold projects has increased [33][35] - The turnover cycle for unsold new construction has decreased, indicating a potential improvement in market absorption rates [35][36] Forward-Looking Indicators - The report suggests that liquidity conditions are expected to improve, with macro-level liquidity showing signs of expansion as of July 2025 [5][49] - The proportion of listings with price increases has decreased by 8.8% month-on-month, indicating a potential cooling in price expectations across the market [51][53]