证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2025 年 07 月 22 日 2025 年 2 季度基金持仓点评 有增持，更欠配 总量研究/银行 公募基金发布二季度重仓持股数据，主动偏股基金银行股仓位上升，由"量增+ 价涨" 共同推动，但欠配幅度也有所扩大。我们解读如下（详细图表见正文）： 银行股仓位上升，主动偏股基金进一步增持：25Q2 主动偏股基金持有银行股的 比例为 4.87%，为 2021 年 2 季度以来的的最高水平，环比一季度提升 1.12pct， 仓位增幅显著。这一变化由"量增"与"价涨"共同推动：一方面，二季度银 行板块跑赢大盘（中信银行指数上涨 12.62%，分别跑赢万得全 A、沪深 300 全 收益指数 8.76、10.24 个百分点），带动基金持仓市值被动扩大；另一方面， 基金主动增持趋势明确，二季度末主动基金持有上市银行流通股数达 48.7 亿股， 环比增持 6.5 亿股，增幅 15.3%。值得注意的是，银行仓位 30%左右的升幅已 超过板块相对收益，进一步印证基金主动加仓是银行仓位提高的主要动力。 不过主动偏股基金对银行板块的欠配幅度也在进一步扩大。以沪深 300 为例， 25Q2 主动基金相对 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The personal pension fund market is developing steadily, and the scale of FOF funds has rebounded. The new - issue market is warming up, with a relative concentration in low - risk FOF products. The market concentration of fund companies has slightly decreased. In Q2 2025, FOF funds of different risk levels achieved positive average returns, and medium - risk FOF funds outperformed their benchmark public funds in terms of both returns and risks. FOF funds significantly increased their allocation to bond - type funds in Q2 2025 [3][7][19][26][31][38][46]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 FOF Fund Market Review - **Personal pension fund development is stable, and FOF scale rebounds**: As of June 30, 2025, the number of personal pension funds increased to 212, and the average return of 132 Y - share personal pension funds that have been operating since 2023 was 3.61%. The total number of public FOF funds in the market was 518, with a total management scale of 165.706 billion yuan, an increase of 6 funds and 14.627 billion yuan compared to the end of Q1 2025, a 9.68% quarter - on - quarter increase. In terms of different types, ordinary FOF funds had an advantage in scale, accounting for over 60%, but fewer in number than pension - target FOF funds. In terms of risk types, low - risk FOF funds were the most numerous, with a scale accounting for 56.07% [7][10]. - **The new - issue market is warming up, relatively concentrated in low - risk FOF products**: In Q2 2025, 15 new FOF funds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 18.604 billion yuan, a 31.51% increase compared to the previous quarter. Among them, ordinary FOF funds accounted for 73% in terms of the number of new - issues and 87% in terms of the scale. Low - risk FOF funds dominated the new - issue scale, accounting for 94.57% [19]. - **The market concentration of fund companies has slightly decreased**: As of the end of Q2 2025, 93 fund companies had deployed FOF funds, with 2 participants reduced in Q2. The combined market share of the top - ten fund companies in terms of scale was 60.97%, a 4.69% decrease compared to the previous quarter [26]. 3.2 FOF Fund Performance Review - **In Q2, the equity market rose overall, and FOF funds of different risk levels achieved positive average returns**: In Q2 2025, the equity market rose overall, with the Hang Seng Index leading the gains, rising 4.12%. Low, medium, and high - risk FOF funds achieved average returns of 1.26%, 2.09%, and 2.71% respectively. The top - performing FOF funds of different risk types all achieved positive returns in Q2 [31]. - **Medium - risk FOF funds outperformed their benchmark public funds in terms of returns and risks in Q2**: In Q2 2025, medium - risk FOF funds outperformed their benchmark public funds, with a quarterly return of 2.09%. High - risk FOF funds underperformed active equity funds, and low - risk FOF funds slightly underperformed fixed - income + funds. In terms of maximum drawdown, FOF funds of all risk levels were better than their benchmark public funds. Since the beginning of the year, medium - risk FOF funds have also outperformed balanced hybrid funds [38]. 3.3 FOF Fund Positioning Analysis - **FOF heavy - position fund type distribution**: In Q2 2025, FOF funds' heavy - position in bond - type funds had the largest scale, with a total heavy - position scale of 42.913 billion yuan, accounting for 51.37%, a 4.61% increase compared to the previous quarter. The heavy - position scale of passive funds was 16.431 billion yuan, accounting for 19.67%, remaining basically the same as the previous quarter. The scale proportion of hybrid funds decreased [46]. - **Fixed - income funds with top heavy - position and increased - position scale and frequency**: For fixed - income funds, in terms of heavy - position scale, Boshi Credit Preferred had the highest scale, and in terms of heavy - position frequency, E Fund Sui Feng Tian Li and Fullgoal Global Bond RMB were the most frequently heavy - held. In terms of external heavy - position, Fullgoal Global Bond RMB ranked first in both scale and frequency. The fixed - income funds with top increased - position scale and frequency in Q2 2025 included Huataibao Xing Zunhe, Invesco Great Wall Jingtai Pure Income, etc. [50][52][53]. - **Active equity funds with top heavy - position and increased - position scale and frequency**: Among active equity funds, Dacheng Gao Xin, E Fund Ke Rong, etc. were among the top in heavy - position scale. Dacheng Gao Xin was the most frequently heavy - held, with 53 times of external heavy - holding. FOF's preference for active equity funds had diverse styles. The active equity funds with top increased - position scale and frequency included Fullgoal Shanghai - Hong Kong - Shenzhen Performance Driver, Golden Eagle Technology Innovation, etc. [55][56][57]. - **Passive funds with top heavy - position scale and frequency**: For passive funds, funds themed on credit bonds, interest - rate bonds, gold, and Hong Kong - stock technology were among the top in both heavy - position scale and frequency. The passive funds with top increased - position scale and frequency were themed on interest - rate bonds, credit bonds, gold, and US stocks [61][62][63].

Group 1 - The "national team" continued to increase its holdings, with an estimated total purchase of over 200 billion in ETFs during the second quarter [3][11][12] - The public funds' allocation to Hong Kong stocks reached a historical high, with the proportion of Hong Kong stocks in actively managed equity funds reaching 16.85%, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.12% [13][15] - Tencent has become the largest holding for public funds for two consecutive quarters, with four Hong Kong stocks among the top ten holdings [13][14] Group 2 - The second quarter saw a significant increase in the holdings of ETFs, particularly in the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 1000, and CSI 500 ETFs [11][12] - The public funds that can invest in Hong Kong stocks have increased to 50.97%, with the proportion of Hong Kong stocks in these funds reaching 33% [15][16] - The net inflow of funds in the secondary market has turned into a slight net inflow, with financing balances rising and net purchases of financing reaching 265.9 billion [32][41] Group 3 - The market sentiment has shown increased trading activity, particularly in the healthcare, TMT, and ChiNext indices [52][56] - The sectors that attracted significant net inflows included computer, non-bank financials, and media, while sectors like healthcare and electric equipment experienced net outflows [56][57] - The overall market performance indicated a preference for large-cap growth stocks over small-cap value stocks [6]

Report Title - Analysis of the Second Quarter Report of Industry-themed Funds in 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not Available Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second quarter of 2025, most major industry-themed funds saw an increase in the number and scale. The total scale of technology and communication, and national defense and military industry funds rose significantly, while that of new energy (vehicles) and consumer industry funds shrank [3]. - Except for new energy (vehicles) and midstream manufacturing, other major industry-themed track funds recorded average positive returns. National defense and military industry funds had a relatively high increase, with an average increase of about 12.54% [3]. - In most tracks, active funds outperformed passive funds in terms of excess returns. However, in new energy (vehicles) and large manufacturing tracks, active funds underperformed passive funds [3]. - The trading activity of most major track ETFs decreased, except for the medical and biological, and national defense and military industry tracks, where the average daily trading volume increased by over 60% [3]. - The net capital flow status of major industry-themed track funds varied. The technology and communication track had a relatively large net capital inflow, while the new energy (vehicles) track had a relatively large net capital outflow [3]. Summary by Directory Quantity & Scale Changes - Most major industry-themed funds saw an increase in quantity and scale compared to the end of the previous quarter. The technology and communication industry had the largest increase in total fund scale, up about 7.8% or 26.61 billion yuan, and the national defense and military industry also had a significant increase, up 35.7% or 24.99 billion yuan. In contrast, the total scale of new energy (vehicles) and consumer industry funds shrank by over 900 million yuan each [3][11]. - In the second quarter of 2025, the pharmaceutical and biological industry had the most new funds in the industry fund category, with 7 new funds, and the large manufacturing and large technology theme funds had the most new funds in the theme fund category, with 6 new funds each [3]. - The new funds in the pharmaceutical and biological industry and large manufacturing theme were mostly passive management funds. The average fundraising scale of new industry funds in the second quarter was about 2.2 billion yuan, slightly lower than the previous quarter [16]. - A total of 15 major industry-themed funds expired in the second quarter of 2025, with 4 each in the large manufacturing and new energy (vehicles) theme tracks [25]. Performance - In the second quarter of 2025, the A-share market was volatile, and most major industry-themed track funds, except for new energy (vehicles) and midstream manufacturing, recorded average positive returns. National defense and military industry funds had a relatively high increase, with an average increase of about 12.54%, while midstream manufacturing and new energy (vehicles) industry funds declined, with average declines of 3.52% and 0.90% respectively [27]. - Active funds outperformed passive funds in terms of excess returns in most tracks. The active funds in the pharmaceutical and biological industry had an excess return of about 7.3% [29]. - In the consumer industry, the quarterly average return of consumer industry funds was about 1.56%. Active funds performed better, with an average return of about 3.0% [33][37]. - The pharmaceutical and biological industry continued its upward trend, with an average quarterly return of 9.61%. Active funds had stronger performance elasticity, with an average return of about 12.6% [42][44]. - In the technology and communication industry, the average quarterly return of technology and communication industry funds was about 1.51%. Active funds had little advantage, with an average return of about 1.54% [48][50]. - The midstream manufacturing industry showed significant internal differentiation, with an average quarterly return of about -3.52%. Passive funds had an average return of about -3.5% [55][57]. - The national defense and military industry had excellent performance, with an average quarterly return of about 12.54%. Active funds performed better, with an average return of about 13.3% [62][64]. - In the cyclical industry, the performance differentiation of sub - industries converged. The average quarterly return of cyclical industry funds was about 3.21%. Active funds performed better, with an average return of about 4.1% [71][74]. - The financial and real estate industry showed significant internal differences. The average quarterly return of financial and real estate funds was about 7.68%. Active funds had a larger increase, with an average return of about 10.3% [79][80]. - The new energy (vehicles) theme funds performed poorly, with a decline compared to the previous quarter. Active funds had an average return of about -1.1% [83]. - The large technology theme funds' performance declined. Active funds had an average return of about 3.0% [84]. - The large manufacturing theme funds' performance declined. Passive funds had an average return of about 2.6% [91]. - The ESG theme active funds performed well, with an average return of about 2.7%. Passive funds' performance recovered, with an average return of about 2.0% [95] Trading Situation & Capital Changes - In the second quarter of 2025, the total average daily trading volume of technology and communication ETFs remained at the highest level, and the trading was relatively active [96]. - The net capital flow status of major industry-themed track funds varied. The technology and communication track had a relatively large net capital inflow of 20.551 billion yuan, while the new energy (vehicles) track had a relatively large net capital outflow of -8.335 billion yuan [100]. - Except for the medical and biological, national defense and military industry, and large manufacturing tracks, the average daily trading volume of other major track ETFs decreased, and the trading activity declined overall. The average daily trading volume of medical and biological, and national defense and military industry track ETFs increased by over 60% [102]. - In terms of trading, sub - theme ETFs such as Hong Kong brokerage, Hong Kong Internet, semiconductor chips, and Hong Kong innovative drugs were relatively more active [106]. - In terms of capital flow, sub - theme products such as Hong Kong large technology, Hong Kong innovative drugs, semiconductors, and national defense and military industry had relatively large net capital inflows, while sub - themes such as large medicine, brokerage, biomedicine, large consumption, and new energy had relatively large net capital outflows [109] Position Changes - Compared with the end of the previous quarter, active funds in each industry-themed track made the following major changes to their top ten heavy - position stocks: significant increases in holdings of certain stocks and significant decreases in holdings of others in different industries such as consumer, pharmaceutical and biological, technology and communication, etc [114]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The bond market closed higher in Q2 2025. The pure - bond funds' quarterly returns were at a medium level in the past three years. The absolute returns of the bond - containing funds rebounded compared to the previous quarter, and their equity positions decreased. Both pure - bond funds and bond - containing funds extended their durations and increased their leverage ratios. The proportion of medium - and low - rated bonds in bond - containing funds slightly increased. The average return of convertible bond funds was positive, with increased valuations and decreased conversion premiums [1][3]. Summary by Directory I. Bond Market Overview - The bond market as a whole closed higher in Q2 2025. The ChinaBond Aggregate Wealth Index rose 1.53%, the ChinaBond Treasury Bond Index rose 1.79%, and the ChinaBond Credit Bond Index rose 1.02%. The convertible bond market declined sharply at the beginning of the quarter and then oscillated upwards, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index gaining about 3.77% in Q2 [3][8]. II. Bond - Type Fund Scale Changes - In Q2 2025, the scale of pure - bond funds rebounded. The scale of medium - and long - term bond funds and short - term bond funds increased by 284.5 billion and 165.6 billion respectively, reaching 6.49 trillion and 1.15 trillion. The scale of bond - containing funds also increased overall, with the scale of partial - debt funds rising by 106.6 billion to 1.92 trillion, while the scale of low - position flexible allocation funds decreased to 8.07 billion. The scale of convertible bond funds decreased to 4.97 billion, and the scale of index bond funds increased significantly, reaching about 1.55 trillion by the end of Q2 [3][11]. III. Bond - Type Fund Issuance Overview - In Q2 2025, 77 bond - related funds were established, an increase in number compared to the previous quarter. Medium - and long - term pure - bond funds had the largest number of new issuances (38), followed by hybrid bond - type secondary funds (15) and passive index - type bond funds (13), with 4 new short - term bond funds. The issuance shares of medium - and long - term bond funds were about 57.3 billion, short - term bond funds were 3.3 billion, and passive index - type bond funds were about 46.2 billion, all showing significant growth compared to the previous quarter. The issuance of bond - containing funds cooled down, with the issuance shares of secondary bond funds and primary bond funds at 15.4 billion and 8.2 billion respectively. There were no new issuances of partial - debt hybrid funds and convertible bond funds [20]. IV. Performance and Position Changes of Pure - Bond Funds 1. Performance of Pure - Bond Funds - In Q2 2025, the average return of short - term bond funds was 0.66% with a median of 0.65%, and the average return of medium - and long - term bond funds was 0.99% with a median of 0.96%. Their returns were at a medium level in the past three years [22]. 2. Bond Allocation of Pure - Bond Funds - As of Q2 2025, the proportion of credit bonds in short - term bond funds was about 85.48%, with an increased allocation to interest - rate bonds compared to the previous quarter. The proportion of credit bonds in medium - and long - term bond funds was about 47.52%, with little change in the bond structure compared to the previous quarter [29]. 3. Duration Distribution and Leverage Ratio of Pure - Bond Funds - As of June 30, 2025, the average duration of pure - bond funds extended to 2.80 years. Pure - bond funds reduced their positions in medium - and short - term bonds with maturities of 1 - 3 years and increased their positions in various medium - and long - term bonds with maturities over 3 years. The leverage ratios of short - term and medium - and long - term bond funds increased significantly to 112.51% and 117.40% respectively [32]. 4. Credit Rating Distribution of Pure - Bond Funds - High - rated bonds (long - term AAA and short - term A - 1) accounted for about 96.41%, medium - rated bonds (AA + and AA) accounted for 3.55% (a decrease from the previous quarter), and low - rated bonds (AA - and below) accounted for 0.05%. Overall, the credit rating of pure - bond funds slightly improved compared to the previous quarter [37]. V. Performance and Position Changes of Bond - Containing Funds 1. Performance of Bond - Containing Funds - In Q2 2025, bond - containing funds achieved positive returns overall, and their absolute returns rebounded compared to the previous quarter. The average returns of primary bond funds, secondary bond funds, partial - debt hybrid funds, and low - position flexible allocation funds were 1.20%, 1.42%, 1.29%, and 1.03% respectively, at a medium - to - high level in the past three years [37]. 2. Asset Allocation of Bond - Containing Funds - In Q2 2025, bond - containing funds continued to reduce their equity positions compared to the previous quarter, with both stock and convertible bond positions slightly decreasing. The pure - bond position was 80.85%, the stock position was 7.04%, and the convertible bond position was 7.65%. The stock position decreased by 0.59 percentage points and the convertible bond position decreased by 0.91 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [49]. 3. Bond Allocation of Bond - Containing Funds - The pure - bond positions of various bond - containing funds were mainly credit bonds, and the proportion of interest - rate bonds in the bond market value was between 16 - 20%. As of Q2 2025, the proportion of interest - rate bonds in all types of bond - containing funds increased [51]. 4. Duration Distribution and Leverage Ratio of Bond - Containing Funds - As of Q2 2025, the average duration of bond - containing funds significantly extended to 4.70 years, showing a medium - to - long duration style. Bond - containing funds significantly reduced the proportion of short - term bonds with maturities under 3 years and increased the proportion of medium - and long - term bonds with maturities over 3 years, especially those over 10 years. The median leverage ratio of bond - containing funds also increased significantly to 109.91% compared to the previous quarter [58]. 5. Credit Rating Distribution of Bond - Containing Funds - As of Q2 2025, high - rated bonds (long - term AAA and short - term A - 1) accounted for about 64.36%, medium - rated bonds (AA + and AA) accounted for about 21.43%, and low - rated bonds (AA - and below) accounted for about 14.21%. Compared to the previous quarter, the proportion of high - grade credit bonds decreased, while the proportion of medium - and low - grade credit bonds increased [62]. 6. Stock Holdings of Bond - Containing Funds - In Q2 2025, non - bank finance, banks, and communications were significantly increased in the stock holdings of bond - containing funds, while food and beverage and automobiles were significantly reduced. The top three heavy - position stocks were Zijin Mining, Tencent Holdings, and Yangtze Power. SF Holding and Alibaba were significantly increased and entered the top ten heavy - position stocks [65][70]. 7. Convertible Bond Holdings of Bond - Containing Funds - As of Q2 2025, the convertible bond holdings of bond - containing funds were mainly allocated to banks, basic chemicals, power equipment and new energy, electronics, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery. The proportion of bank convertible bonds was about 20.16%, with a significant decrease in concentration compared to the previous quarter [73]. VI. Performance and Position Changes of Convertible Bond Funds 1. Performance of Convertible Bond Funds - The convertible bond market closed higher in Q2 2025. All convertible bond funds had positive quarterly returns, with an average of about 3.50%, a relatively high level in the past three years. The ChinaAMC Convertible Bond Fund had the highest return of about 6.38% [77]. 2. Holdings of Convertible Bond Funds - As of Q2 2025, the convertible bond holdings of convertible bond funds were mainly allocated to banks, basic chemicals, non - ferrous metals, electronics, and power equipment and new energy. The proportion of bank convertible bonds was 16.53%, and that of basic chemical convertible bonds was 10.80%. Compared to the previous quarter, the allocation to non - ferrous metals, non - bank finance, and pharmaceuticals increased, while the allocation to banks, machinery, and power equipment and new energy decreased. The valuation of convertible bond funds' holdings increased significantly, and the median conversion premium decreased to 28.92% [81][86].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy recommendation for Hisense, TCL Electronics, and Zhao Chi shares, highlighting their potential in the MiniLED market [2]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the MiniLED TV market is experiencing accelerated penetration due to national subsidies, leading to improved profitability for domestic brands. The market share of leading brands is increasing, while Korean brands are losing their competitive edge [1][6]. - The report emphasizes that the MiniLED penetration rate has significantly increased, with sales during the 618 shopping festival rising from 16% to over 40% year-on-year [6][15]. - The report suggests that the overall market for MiniLED TVs is expected to double in 2025, with a projected shipment of 16 million units globally [6]. Summary by Sections Competition: Market Concentration and MiniLED Penetration - The report notes that the domestic TV industry is entering a growth phase post-subsidy, with online retail sales increasing by 35% in Q4 2024 and 15% in H1 2025 [11]. - The concentration of the top four manufacturers (Hisense, TCL, Xiaomi, and Skyworth) has increased, with their combined market share rising from 82% to 87% post-subsidy [19][21]. Cost: Panel Price Stability - The report highlights that the panel price volatility has decreased, with major manufacturers controlling production to stabilize prices. The market share of domestic panel manufacturers has increased to nearly 70% [25][26]. - The cost structure is shifting, with the cost of panels decreasing as MiniLED technology becomes more prevalent, allowing brands to improve profitability [26]. Product: National Subsidies Driving MiniLED Growth - The report states that MiniLED TV shipments in 2024 are expected to reach 4.16 million units, a 352% increase year-on-year, with penetration rates rising from 2.5% to 11.6% [31]. - The report discusses the impact of national subsidies on MiniLED penetration, with rates expected to exceed 41% during the 2025 618 shopping festival [37]. Overseas: Domestic Brands Targeting High-End Market - The report indicates that domestic brands are making significant inroads into the high-end TV market, with Hisense and TCL increasing their market shares significantly in Q1 2025 [6]. - The report notes that the global high-end TV shipment volume increased by 44% year-on-year, with domestic brands surpassing Korean competitors [6].

Group 1: Report's Core View - The capital flow of wealth management products is an important influencing factor in the credit bond market. This report analyzes the changes in wealth management scale and bond - allocation behavior under the background of net - value transformation to enrich the credit bond analysis framework [1][9] Group 2: Wealth Management Scale Trends 2.1 Overall Scale and New Product Term - Deposit interest rate decline drives deposit transfer to wealth management, leading to an increase in wealth management scale. As of Q1 2025, the wealth management product scale reached 29.14 trillion yuan. The average 1 - year fixed - deposit rate of the six major banks was only 0.96% in June 2025, while the wealth management yield was 3.01%. Newly issued products are mainly closed - end, and the term of new products has been extended, with the proportion of new wealth management products with a term over 1 year reaching 47% in June 2025, up about 14 percentage points from March 2024 [10][12] 2.2 Main Expansion Force - Open - ended products are more popular among individual investors. In 2024, the scale of open - ended products increased by 2.7 trillion yuan year - on - year, while that of closed - ended products increased by only 160 billion yuan. The minimum - holding - period products are the main expansion force of wealth management products in 2024, balancing liquidity and yield. As of the end of June 2025, the average maximum drawdown of minimum - holding - period products in the past 1 year was 0.18%, the lowest among open - ended products, and the average annualized yield in the past 1 year reached 2.53%, about 70bp higher than daily - open products [16][17] Group 3: Impact of the "Impossible Triangle" on Bond - Allocation Style 3.1 Bond Allocation Changes - To stabilize the net value of wealth management products, wealth management has reduced bond allocation in recent years and increased the allocation of cash and bank deposits with higher liquidity and lower valuation fluctuations. As of Q1 2025, the scale of wealth management investment in bonds, cash and bank deposits, and inter - bank certificates of deposit was 13.68 trillion yuan, 7.27 trillion yuan, and 4.20 trillion yuan respectively, accounting for 43.9%, 23.3%, and 13.5% of the total investment assets, with changes of - 6.5%, 5.8%, and 0.2% respectively compared to Q4 2022 [23] 3.2 Credit Bond Allocation - Credit bonds are the main investment direction of wealth management funds, accounting for 41% of the total investment assets. As of the end of 2024, the proportions of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds in bond investment were 5% and 95% respectively. In Q1 2025, wealth management preferred to allocate urban investment bonds, secondary perpetual bonds, and industrial bonds, accounting for 35%, 26%, and 23% of credit bonds respectively. Due to the short - term nature of most wealth management products and the instability of the liability side, the duration of credit bond allocation is short [33][37] 3.3 Increased Fund Entrustment - It is difficult for wealth management to meet the performance benchmark by directly investing in bonds. In Q2 2025, the wealth management performance benchmark dropped to 2.88%, still 84 - 87bp higher than the yields of 3Y AA(2) urban investment bonds and 7Y AA+ secondary perpetual bonds. With the blockage of insurance and trust channels, wealth management has increased entrusted investment in funds. The proportion of wealth management's penetrated investment in funds has been rising, indicating an increasing importance of entrusted funds [39][47] 3.4 Bond - Buying Behavior after Self - Built Valuation Model Restrictions - The "self - built valuation model" is a new way for wealth management to smooth net - value fluctuations but has problems such as liquidity risk and unfair returns. After the restriction of the self - built valuation model, some wealth management may reduce the allocation of long - term secondary perpetual bonds and medium - low - rated credit bonds and increase the allocation of short - term high - rated bonds [52][53] Group 4: Impact of Wealth Management on the Credit Bond Market 4.1 Influence of Scale Changes - The bond - allocation rhythm of wealth management is highly correlated with the scale change, which affects the credit spread trend. When the wealth management scale rises, the credit spread tends to narrow; when it falls, the credit spread tends to widen. The seasonal change of wealth management scale also makes the credit spread show seasonal characteristics. Quarter - beginning is a good time for credit spread compression, especially from August to the end of the year. September is a good allocation window, but beware of widening credit spreads in November [3][57] 4.2 Observing Market Adjustment from Wealth Management - During bond market adjustments, pay attention to the risk of "redemption tides". The "redemption tide" occurs when wealth management passively sells bonds due to significant net - value drawdowns. The "redemption tide" is accompanied by an increase in the net - value break - even rate. When the weekly环比 change of the 4 - week rolling net - value break - even rate exceeds 6%, the possibility of a "redemption tide" increases. The maximum drawdown rate of wealth management products can be a leading indicator of credit spread changes, leading by about 7 - 60 days [3][64]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" investment rating for China Resources Power (00836.HK) [1][6]. Core Views - China Resources Power has a strong foundation in high-quality thermal power assets and robust operational management capabilities. The company is well-positioned in the renewable energy sector, with significant growth expected during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The planned spin-off of China Resources New Energy for A-share listing is anticipated to alleviate capital expenditure pressures [1][6]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s main revenue is projected to grow from HKD 103.33 billion in 2023 to HKD 121.67 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7% [2]. - Operating profit is expected to increase from HKD 19.75 billion in 2023 to HKD 22.47 billion in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 5% [2]. - Net profit is forecasted to rise from HKD 11.00 billion in 2023 to HKD 16.08 billion in 2027, with a CAGR of around 4% [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is anticipated to grow from HKD 2.29 in 2023 to HKD 3.32 in 2027 [2]. Company Overview - China Resources Power is the only power platform under China Resources Group, with a diversified energy portfolio including thermal, wind, solar, and hydro power. As of the end of 2024, the company’s total installed capacity reached 72.43 GW, with thermal power accounting for 53%, wind power 33%, solar power 13%, and hydro power 1% [6][12]. - The company has a strong presence in economically developed regions, with 27.25% of its capacity located in Central China and 23.72% in Eastern China [12][13]. Operational Efficiency - The company’s thermal power plants are strategically located in regions with high electricity demand, leading to higher utilization hours compared to national averages. The average utilization hours for coal-fired power plants were 4,731 in 2022, 4,688 in 2023, and 4,625 in 2024 [6][22]. - The company has successfully reduced fuel costs, with the unit fuel cost decreasing from HKD 0.339/kWh in 2022 to HKD 0.276/kWh in 2024 [6][22]. Renewable Energy Growth - The company plans to add 10 GW of new renewable energy capacity and 6.09 GW of coal power by 2025, aiming for renewable energy to constitute 50% of its total installed capacity [6][22]. - The renewable energy segment has become a significant contributor to profits, with net profit from renewable sources reaching HKD 90.29 billion in 2024, accounting for 62.8% of the company’s total net profit [6][22]. Capital Expenditure and Financial Health - The company’s capital expenditure for 2024 is projected to be HKD 534.33 billion, with 70.5% allocated to renewable energy projects [6][42]. - The debt-to-asset ratio is expected to remain relatively low at 67% by the end of 2024, indicating a stable financial position [6][42]. Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a stable dividend payout ratio above 40% over the past five years, with a dividend of HKD 1.415 per share in 2023, reflecting a growth of 141.47% year-on-year [6][44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing penetration rate of digital printing equipment, which is still at a low level, indicating significant long-term growth potential [7]. - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by the rising demand for digital printing equipment, as the apparel printing industry trends towards small batch and quick response orders [7]. - The company has a business model that includes selling consumables (inks), which enhances customer loyalty and ensures cash flow stability [7]. - New business segments, such as automatic sewing equipment and digital printing equipment, are anticipated to contribute to revenue growth [7]. Financial Performance and Projections - For the first half of 2025, the company expects revenue between 1.02 billion to 1.06 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.01% to 29.91% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 240 million to 260 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 19.9% to 29.89% [1]. - The company forecasts total revenue of 2.312 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 29% [3][7]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 553 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 33% [3][7]. Valuation Metrics - The current stock price is 67.34 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 12.1 billion yuan [4]. - The company’s PE ratio is projected to decrease from 37.2 in 2023 to 21.8 in 2025, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [3][15]. - The PB ratio is expected to decline from 4.2 in 2023 to 3.4 in 2025, suggesting improved valuation metrics [3][15].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" due to favorable fundamentals and expected outperformance of the industry index against the benchmark index [2][7]. Core Insights - The TDI industry is experiencing significant supply disruptions due to a fire at Covestro's German plant, which has led to a production halt of 300,000 tons/year TDI. Additionally, Wanhua Chemical's Hungarian plant is undergoing maintenance, affecting 250,000 tons/year TDI capacity [1][5]. - European TDI supply is expected to be severely impacted, with the region accounting for approximately 16% of global TDI capacity. The combined capacity of the affected plants in Europe is 550,000 tons [5]. - Nearly 50% of global TDI production capacity is anticipated to be affected, with domestic maintenance also contributing to supply tightness. By August, domestic maintenance impacts are expected to reach 1.01 million tons, representing 30% of global capacity [5]. - TDI prices have begun to rebound from historical lows, increasing from 11,000 CNY/ton to 15,925 CNY/ton, a rise of over 40%. Historical peaks for TDI prices have exceeded 50,000 CNY/ton [5]. - Strong attention is recommended for Cangzhou Dahua and Wanhua Chemical, with profit increases projected for each 1,000 CNY/ton rise in TDI prices, amounting to 830 million CNY for Wanhua and 120 million CNY for Cangzhou [5]. Industry Overview - The TDI industry is characterized by a global capacity of approximately 3.4 million tons, with over 70% of production concentrated in Asia, primarily in China [5]. - The report highlights the ongoing trend of overseas production capacity contraction, particularly in Europe and the US, due to high production costs and plant closures [5].