证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2026 年 1 月 26 日 国内落地 ESG 债券国标，海外加码气候风险与能效投资 ——ESG 市场观察周报（20260125） 1、要闻速览：国内绿色金融国标落地，海外聚焦气候风险管理与家庭能效 国内动态方面，我国金融领域首部 ESG 国家标准《债券发行人环境、社会和治 理评价框架》正式发布，将于 2026 年 4 月 1 日实施；生态环境部等三部门联合印 发《关于加强重点行业大气环境绩效分级管理的指导意见》，建立"1+1+1+N"管 理体系；工信部明确将从优化供需、强化品牌、夯实产业根基三方面发力，促进消 费品工业绿色化、智能化发展。 国际动态方面，欧洲央行加码检测银行气候风险实际影响并评估其转型计划； 英国政府拟投入 150 亿英镑，启动规模最大的"温暖家园计划"；安联投资推出十 亿美元新兴市场气候基金，撬动私营资本助力可持续发展。 2、市场动向： ESG 指数表现分化，碳价继续上涨 本周国内外 ESG 主题指数表现分化。国内 300ESG 指数小幅下跌 0.89%， SEEE 碳中和指数上涨 0.70%，上证社会责任与 180 治理指数分别下跌 0.69%和 0.70% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the liquor industry, indicating a bottoming out and potential for a rebound during the Spring Festival, with a focus on key stocks such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu [5][16]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the safety margin for liquor companies is derived more from brand strength, market share, and sales momentum rather than just dividend yields, which are expected to be adjusted downwards for the years 2025-2026 [1][16]. - Recent sales tracking shows that Moutai's sales and pricing are better than market expectations, with a slight increase in overall channel sales volume and stable pricing [1][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of cash flow and dividend planning, with companies like Yanghe planning to maintain dividends at no less than 100% of their net profit for 2025-2027 [2][11]. Summary by Relevant Sections Core Company Tracking - Yanghe's net profit for 2025 is projected to be between 2.12 billion and 2.52 billion yuan, a decline of 62.2%-68.3% year-on-year, with a focus on inventory reduction and price stabilization [2][11]. - Yanjing Beer expects a net profit of 1.58 billion to 1.74 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 50.0%-65.0%, with plans to launch a high-end product in 2026 [3][12]. - Yihai International anticipates low single-digit growth in H2 2025, driven by improved gross margins and a return of key personnel, which is expected to enhance business performance [4][13]. - IFBH is expected to face pressure in H2 2025, but with potential recovery in 2026 as supply issues are resolved [4][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a bottom-up approach to investing in liquor stocks, with a focus on key players and potential rebounds in sales, particularly in the context of the upcoming Spring Festival [5][16]. - It identifies four main lines for consumer goods: restaurant chains, dairy products, valuation-matched companies, and bottom-up recovery plays [5][17]. Industry Overview - The report notes that the food and beverage industry has a total market capitalization of 4,560.2 billion yuan, with 142 listed companies [5]. - The industry index shows a 1-month performance of 0.6%, a 6-month performance of 4.4%, and a 12-month performance of 17.7% [7].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4]. Core Insights - The company leverages an integrated "end-cloud" architecture and AI to lead in the AIoT full-scenario smart terminal market, addressing the fragmentation challenges in IoT applications [7]. - The overseas business has seen significant growth, with a 25.96% year-on-year increase in overseas revenue in the first half of 2025, indicating improved quality of growth [7]. - The smart sleep terminal business is experiencing explosive growth, projected to increase from 10.08 million yuan in 2023 to 199.00 million yuan in 2024, marking a 1871.25% increase [7]. - The company's financial performance shows strong growth potential, with a 33.95% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 [7]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 1,123 million yuan in 2023 to 2,906 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 29% [3]. - Net profit is expected to rise from 174 million yuan in 2023 to 386 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a consistent growth trajectory [3]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 49.6 in 2023 to 22.4 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics [3]. Company Overview - The company operates in the core areas of smart sleep, smart vehicle, smart travel, and smart payment, with a focus on integrating communication, positioning, and AI technologies [11][12]. - The company has a strong shareholder structure, with the largest shareholder holding 33.88% of the shares, indicating concentrated ownership [22]. Industry Situation - The global IoT market is expected to grow from $714.48 billion in 2024 to $4,062.34 billion by 2032, indicating robust growth prospects [41]. - The Chinese IoT market has expanded significantly, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 20% from 2012 to 2023 [41]. - The AIoT solutions market in China is projected to grow from 541 million yuan in 2020 to 1,287 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a strong upward trend [44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced an overall increase of 2.2% during the week from January 11 to January 17, driven by a reduction in tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles by Canada, which lowered the import tariff to 6.1% and allowed a quota of 49,000 vehicles in the first year, increasing to 70,000 over five years [1][28]. - Tesla announced the termination of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) buyout option, transitioning to a subscription model priced at $99 per month, effective February 14 [1][31]. Market Performance Overview - The automotive sector's performance was positive, with the CS Automotive index rising by 2.2% [2][11]. - The secondary automotive sectors mostly saw gains, with the automotive services sector leading at +5.2%, followed by automotive parts and commercial vehicles at +3.9% and +3.7%, respectively [11]. - The passenger vehicle sector experienced a slight decline of -1.6% [11]. Individual Stock Performance - Notable stock performances included New Coordinates (+36.3%), Tieliu Co. (+33.0%), and Liancheng Precision (+24.8%) [15]. - Conversely, stocks such as Jiaoyun Co. (-7.5%), Hengshuai Co. (-6.9%), and Huihan Co. (-5.2%) saw declines [15]. Key Covered Stocks - Among the covered stocks, notable increases were seen in Zhongrong Electric (+23.6%), Kabeiyi (+19.2%), and China Automotive Research (+17.9%) [19]. Recent Industry Developments - Chery Automobile held its 2026 AI conference, showcasing advancements in AI technology across various domains [24]. - Dongfeng Motor launched its first product from a new 16,000-ton integrated die-casting line, becoming the first automaker to implement this technology in the industry [26][27]. - The Chinese automotive market in Europe reached a record market share of 9.5% in December 2025, nearly doubling from the previous year [29].

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2026 年 01 月 25 日 金银齐舞，美元信用弱势与现货结构性紧缺塑造价格新高 金属行业周报 周期/金属及材料 我们统计相对历史最高价，大部分有色金属当前价格尚处于腰部及以下。民族 主义强化大叙事，资源股维持逢低加仓、长期坚定持有。重点关注金银铜铝钨 铀稀土锂钴钽镁镍等品种。短期推荐寻找补涨金属、标的。此外，关注科技成 长相关新材料标的。马斯克点燃商业航天主题，关注斯瑞新材、西部材料、有 研粉材、银邦股份等。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 236 | 4.6 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 8324.2 | 7.3 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 7294.7 | 7.0 | 行业指数 | % | 1m | 6m | 12m | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 20.9 | 61.5 | 102.5 | | 相对表现 | 19.1 | 47.3 | 78.8 | 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 相关报告 1、《核电全球复苏，铀价中枢预计 整体上行—核能系列报 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking sector, particularly highlighting the potential of specific banks such as China Merchants Bank [1][5]. Core Insights - The banking sector is experiencing a significant expansion in wealth management, with the total scale reaching 33.3 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, reflecting a growth of 3.34 trillion yuan and an annual growth rate of 11.2% [3][12]. - The report indicates a strategic shift towards increasing allocations in deposits and public funds while slightly reducing allocations in certificates of deposit and equity assets [4][5]. - The average yield of wealth management products is reported at 1.98%, with a total of 730.3 billion yuan generated for investors in 2025 [4]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The A-share market saw an increase of 1.81% this week, while the banking sector declined by 2.70% [15]. - The People's Bank of China maintained the loan market quotation rate (LPR) at 3.0% for one year and 3.5% for five years and above [1][12]. Wealth Management Trends - By the end of 2025, the wealth management scale is projected to reach 33.3 trillion yuan, with various product categories showing different growth patterns [3][4]. - Cash management products have seen a decline, with a total decrease of 0.26 trillion yuan in 2025, although there was a recovery in the second half of the year [3]. Asset Allocation - As of the end of 2025, the investment assets of wealth management products totaled 35.66 trillion yuan, with bonds, deposits, and public funds making up the majority of the allocations [4]. - The report notes a significant increase in allocations to deposits (2.38 trillion yuan) and public funds (0.89 trillion yuan) [4]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the wealth management scale will continue to grow rapidly in 2026, with a neutral expectation of an increase of approximately 3 trillion yuan [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the AI sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing advancements in the AI sector, particularly in model development, computing power, and application industries, with a strong recommendation to increase allocations in key areas such as large models, AI applications, data service providers, AI infrastructure, and domestic computing power [1][6]. - The report highlights the recent IPO acceptance of Suiyuan Technology, which aims to raise 6 billion yuan for product development and business expansion, showcasing the growth potential in the AI computing space [17]. - The report notes a decrease in the market value and proportion of computer sector holdings among public funds in Q4 2025, suggesting a low allocation in the sector compared to the overall market [22][25]. Summary by Sections AI Industry Significant Developments - Anthropic launched the Claude in Excel plugin, enhancing Excel's capabilities for financial analysts by integrating AI functionalities [9]. - Tesla plans to restart its Dojo 3 AI chip project focused on space computing, indicating a shift towards high-risk, high-reward AI applications [11][12]. - Meta announced the rollout of ads on its Threads platform, leveraging AI-driven advertising systems to enhance user engagement [13]. Computer Industry Q4 2025 Institutional Holdings Analysis - Public funds held approximately 295 billion yuan in the computer sector, a decrease of about 152 billion yuan from Q3 2025, with a holding proportion of 1.50% [22]. - After excluding specific companies, the holdings in the computer sector were reported at 272 billion yuan, reflecting a continued decline in institutional investment [25]. Market Performance Review - In the third week of 2026, the computer sector experienced a slight decline of 0.30%, with notable stock performances from companies like *ST Lifan and Jinhai Xun [29].

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2026 年 01 月 25 日 地缘紧张此起彼伏 ——国际时政周评 回顾：格陵兰岛缓和；中美关系；俄乌美三方会谈。 未来一周：日本、泰国大选；伊朗局势；其他地缘。 魏芸 S1090522010002 weiyun@cmschina.com.cn 定期报告 ❑ 上周时政回顾： 1、格陵兰问题：特朗普表示不会以武力夺取格陵兰岛；称已就格陵兰岛制 定协议框架，不会对欧洲加征关税。地缘紧张与原油供给过剩预期相互 博弈，本周布伦特油价上涨 1.9%，关注后续地缘演绎。1）本周美欧双 方表态缓和，重回外交谈判，符合预期。客观而言，美方对格陵兰岛的 具体要求（扩大军事部署、获得当地资源品、排除外界国家影响力 等），完全可以通过补充现有协议的方式满足，并无一定需要格陵兰岛 主权的必要；欧洲方面也愿意满足这些要求。2）谈判或聚焦于补充 1951 年美国-丹麦协议。美方或希望：确保美国在制定军事计划时不受 任何限制；部署"金穹" 防御系统；明确排除外界国家在当地开展活 动；获得格陵兰岛矿产获取权。3）特朗普对格陵兰岛的主权要求仍是 后续博弈的风险点，欧洲的反击力度或仍有限。 2、中美关系与中欧关 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Insights - The company is expected to stabilize its main business, with positive progress in its AI power supply segment, following its early adoption of the Nvidia supply chain in 2024, leading to a competitive advantage in new product development [1]. - The financial performance for 2025-2026 is projected to improve significantly, particularly with the anticipated growth in AI power supply business, which is expected to contribute to a non-linear increase in profitability [7][15]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 6,754 million RMB in 2023 to 20,421 million RMB in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 33% [2][28]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 629 million RMB in 2023 to 2,501 million RMB in 2027, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [2][28]. - The company's PE ratio is forecasted to decrease from 105.4 in 2023 to 26.5 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [2][28]. Business Segments - **Smart Home Appliances**: Revenue is expected to reach 40.37 billion RMB in 2025, with a gross margin of 23% [17]. - **Industrial Power Supply**: Projected revenue for 2025 is 24.94 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 22% [14][17]. - **AI Power Supply**: Anticipated revenue growth from 2 billion RMB in 2025 to 70 billion RMB by 2027, with a gross margin of 40% [15][17]. - **Other Businesses**: Expected to show stable growth, contributing positively to overall revenue [16]. Performance Metrics - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve from 24.9% in 2023 to 29.7% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [28]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 15.5% in 2023 to 28.8% in 2027, reflecting improved efficiency in generating profits from equity [28]. Market Position - The company is positioned to capture a significant share of the PSU market, with estimated revenues of nearly 4 billion RMB in 2026, which is about half of the market share of its main competitor [7][15].

Domestic Economic Outlook - The March construction season is expected to support a rebound in investment, driven by policy-oriented financial tools and a stabilization in investment trends in Q1[1] - The central bank's early-year excess MLF operations indicate a lower probability of a rate cut in the short term[1] International Economic Developments - Pressure on the independence of the Federal Reserve has temporarily eased, with expectations of a court ruling against Trump's dismissal of Cook[1] - Recent increases in long-term bond yields in the US and Japan have led to a strengthening of the yen[1] Currency and Asset Performance - On January 23, the RMB midpoint broke 7; if the USD remains stable, the RMB midpoint may rise to 6.7-6.8, with the effective exchange rate likely recovering to H2 2024 levels, maintaining the attractiveness of Chinese assets[1] - Continuous PPI recovery is expected to benefit inflation-related assets, particularly in sectors like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, construction materials, steel, and electric new energy[1] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - From January 19 to January 23, the central bank conducted a net liquidity injection of 229.5 billion RMB through 7-day reverse repos, with a total of 11,810 billion RMB injected and 9,515 billion RMB maturing[2] - The average funding price for DR001 fluctuated between 1.3% and 1.4%, indicating a neutral to loose liquidity environment[2] Government Debt Financing - Local government bonds net financed 222.37 billion RMB, while national bonds net financed 344.3 billion RMB, totaling 566.7 billion RMB in net financing[6] - Upcoming local government bond issuance is planned at 439.275 billion RMB, with a net financing scale of 367.887 billion RMB[6] Market Trends - The A-share market showed strong bullish sentiment despite fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 4,136.16, reflecting a weekly increase of 0.84%[35] - The Hang Seng Index experienced a slight decline of 0.36% but has shown a year-to-date increase of 4.37%[35]