证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 11 月 23 日 维持观望，大盘风格或仍将占优 2. 市场最新观点 风险提示：择时和风格轮动模型结论基于合理假设前提下结合历史数据统计规 律推导而出，市场环境变化下可能导致出现模型失效风险。 定期报告 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 王武蕾 S1090519080001 wangwulei@cmschina.com.cn 王禹哲 S1090525080001 wangyuzhe@cmschina.com.cn ❑ 择时观点上，本周继续维持震荡观望的判断，核心原因有三点，较前期有所 扩充：一是交易维度信号偏弱，目前全市场 Beta 离散度上行、PB 分化度下 行、全 A 交易量能下行，三者均给出偏向谨慎信号。简而言之，即市场缺乏 交易主线，未能形成新的趋势。二是基本面维度有喜有忧，即中上游景气度 回升较为明显，但下游景气度以及信贷数据不及预期。三是全球流动性风险 仍未解除，上周市场回调的主要原因在于美联储 12 月降息预期显著回落导 致全球流动性收缩，虽然周五美联储"三把手"威廉姆斯表示"近期内有进 一步调整利率的空间"，带动美股企稳，但当前美联储内部分歧仍较大，在 12 月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the equity market declined across the board, with the large - cap value style being relatively resilient and the North - Star 50 index experiencing a significant decline. Among industries, the banking sector had the smallest decline, while the power equipment & new energy and comprehensive sectors had larger declines [1][2][6]. - The average return of all - market active equity funds was - 4.83%. Funds with better performance were heavily invested in the automobile and banking industries. Among industry - themed funds, financial and real estate funds had relatively leading average returns, while pharmaceutical sector funds had relatively lagging average returns [2][11]. - In the bond market, the interest - rate bond market declined, the credit - bond market rose, and the convertible - bond market declined. The average returns of short - term and medium - to - long - term bond funds were 0.02%, while the average returns of equity - linked bond funds and convertible - bond funds were negative [1][2]. - As of November 19, 2025, the average returns of low - risk, medium - risk, and high - risk FOF funds in the sample in the past week were - 0.43%, - 1.12%, and - 1.55% respectively [2]. - During the statistical period, the average declines of equity - oriented, index - type, other - type, and bond - type QDII funds were 2.96%, 3.45%, 1.89%, and 0.20% respectively. This week, REITs declined by an average of 1.20% [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The equity market declined across the board this week. The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 4454 points, down 3.77%; the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3835 points, down 3.9%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12538 points, down 5.13%; and the ChiNext Index closed at 2920 points, down 6.15%. In the Hong Kong stock market, the Hang Seng Index declined by 5.09% and the Hang Seng Tech Index declined by 7.18% [6]. - In terms of industries, the banking sector declined the least, by 0.87%, while the power equipment & new energy and comprehensive sectors declined by 9.41% and 9.47% respectively [9]. 3.2 Key Fund Tracking 3.2.1 Active Equity - **Fund Performance**: The average return of all - market funds in the sample this week was - 4.83%. Funds with better performance were heavily invested in the automobile and banking industries. Among industry funds, financial and real estate funds had relatively leading average returns, while pharmaceutical sector funds had relatively lagging average returns [11][12]. - **Position Estimation**: This week, the positions of common stock - type and partial - stock hybrid funds both decreased. Compared with the previous week, the position of common stock - type funds decreased by 0.31 percentage points, and that of partial - stock hybrid funds decreased by 0.05 percentage points. Actively managed partial - stock funds increased their allocation to consumption, finance, and cyclical sectors and reduced their allocation to stable and growth sectors [17]. 3.2.2 Bond - Type Funds - **Bond Market Performance**: The credit - bond market rose this week. The ChinaBond Total Wealth Index closed at 246.39, down 0.01% from last week; the ChinaBond Treasury Bond Index closed at 246.64, down 0.05% from last week; and the ChinaBond Credit Bond Index closed at 225.09, up 0.04% from last week. The convertible - bond market declined, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index closing at 482.94, down 1.78% week - on - week, and the trading volume was 318 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.316 billion yuan from last week [20][22]. - **Fund Performance Overview**: The average return of short - term bond funds this week was 0.02%, and the median was 0.03%; the average return of medium - to - long - term bond funds was 0.02%, and the median was 0.02%. The average returns of first - tier and second - tier bond funds were - 0.16% and - 0.77% respectively. The average return of partial - bond hybrid funds was - 1.1%, and the median was - 0.99%; the average return of low - position flexible - allocation funds was - 0.84%, and the median was - 0.67%. The average return of convertible - bond funds was - 2.41%, and the median was - 2.4% [25][27][29]. 3.2.3 FOF As of November 19, 2025, the average returns of low - risk, medium - risk, and high - risk FOF funds in the sample in the past week were - 0.43%, - 1.12%, and - 1.55% respectively [2][32]. 3.2.4 QDII During the statistical period, the average declines of equity - oriented, index - type, other - type, and bond - type QDII funds were 2.96%, 3.45%, 1.89%, and 0.20% respectively [2]. 3.2.5 REITs This week, REITs declined by an average of 1.20%. Among them, CICC Yizhuang Industrial Park REIT had a relatively high increase, rising 0.96% in the past week. China Asset Management CR Land Ucommune REIT had the highest liquidity, with a trading volume of 128.2851 million yuan in the past week [36][37].

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 11 月 23 日 俄乌和谈再次启动？ ——国际时政周评 回顾：美国就结束俄乌冲突提出的 28 点新计划；美国芯片政策。 未来一周：地缘冲突；美国内政及关税。 ❑ 上周时政回顾： 1）美国就结束俄乌冲突提出的 28 点新计划。美对俄原油出口制裁落地， 以及俄乌和谈进程或再次开启，本周布伦特油价下跌 2.8%。特朗普政 府在当前阶段提出和平计划，主要原因及背景包括：1）战场局势方 面，冬季来临，俄罗斯在战场稳步进展而乌克兰面临压力，若此时和 谈，俄方或能满足于当前战果而接受停火，而乌方因战场挫败或能接受 一定妥协。2）当前乌克兰泽连斯基政府因战场形势和政府腐败丑闻受 到巨大压力，特朗普此时推动和谈，本质上是在向乌克兰施压，令其让 步。3）美方对俄原油制裁已落地，在特朗普方面不愿对俄施加更进一 步制裁或军事威胁前提下，推动和谈是可预见的选择。从媒体报道的 28 点计划内容看，该方案有助于改善美俄关系和后续合作，而乌方或 需要较大让步。从媒体披露的内容看，当前方案在多个问题上的立场采 取了俄方的一贯主张，包括领土问题、解除俄罗斯制裁、北约不再扩张 （意味着除了乌克兰，格 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of 5.15 billion, a year-over-year increase of 27.1%, and a net profit of 0.09 billion, up 408% [1][7] - Non-GAAP operating profit reached 0.14 billion, reflecting a 34.9% increase, with a Non-GAAP net profit of 0.11 billion, up 22.2% [1][7] - The company is positioned as a leader in the circular economy, with expectations for continued market share growth [1][7] - The company anticipates Q4 2025 revenue between 6.08 billion and 6.18 billion, representing a growth of 25.4% to 27.4% [7] Financial Performance - The company's product revenue was 4.73 billion, increasing by 28.7%, while service revenue was 0.42 billion, up 11.6% [1][7] - The number of electronic products traded in Q3 was 10.9 million, a 19.8% increase, with a total of 2,195 stores by the end of Q3, an increase of 103 quarter-over-quarter and 558 year-over-year [7] - Gross margin improved to 20.5%, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 2.1% [7] Financial Projections - The company expects to achieve Non-GAAP net profits of 0.43 billion, 0.69 billion, and 0.99 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7] - The projected P/E ratio for 2025 is 20 times the Non-GAAP net profit, leading to a target price of 5.40 USD [3][7] Market Position - The company is expanding its multi-category recycling and community high-frequency recycling initiatives, which are expected to enhance its ecological layout and growth potential [7] - The report highlights the increasing penetration rate of second-hand electronic recycling, positioning the company favorably within the industry [7]

Core Insights - The report focuses on the evolution and optimization of profitability evaluation indicators, particularly the Return on Equity (ROE) within the PB-ROE framework, utilizing DuPont analysis to dissect the structure and potential issues of the ROE metric [1][4] - The report introduces a comprehensive profitability factor by optimizing the indicator system based on the analysis of ROE, aiming to enhance the dual optimization of the PB-ROE strategy framework in both valuation and profitability aspects [1][4] Section Summaries 1. In-depth Exploration of ROE and Profitability Styles - The PB-ROE strategy combines valuation levels with shareholder return rates, reflecting a company's ability to generate profits from shareholder capital, which directly influences net asset growth [10][14] - The relationship between ROE and GDP indicates that listed companies, as a significant part of the economy, have shown substantial growth in revenue, with the total revenue of A-share companies exceeding 72 trillion yuan in 2024, compared to 3.37 trillion yuan in 2004 [14][15] - ROE is categorized under quality style in investment factors, reflecting a company's financial health, profitability, reliability, and long-term growth potential [22][26] 2. ROE and DuPont Analysis - ROE is tested using both quarterly and TTM (Trailing Twelve Months) metrics, with the quarterly ROE factor showing a higher average Rank IC of 4.06% compared to 2.78% for TTM [28][29] - Historical high ROE stocks tend to underperform in future price performance, while portfolios constructed based on future ROE show significant excess returns, indicating the importance of ROE stability [33][34] - DuPont analysis breaks down ROE into three components: net profit margin, total asset turnover, and equity multiplier, providing a comprehensive assessment of a company's profitability, operational efficiency, and leverage [42][46] 3. ROE De-leveraging Analysis - The report discusses the linear separation of leverage factors from ROE, highlighting the economic relationship between ROA and ROE, and the limitations of ROA as a profitability measure [3][15] - The introduction of RONOA (Return on Net Operating Assets) and FCFFIC (Free Cash Flow Return on Invested Capital) aims to provide more accurate profitability assessments by excluding non-core operating activities and mitigating earnings management risks [4][6] 4. Comprehensive Profitability Factor - The integration of stable ROE, stable ROIC, stable RONOA, and FCFFIC forms a comprehensive profitability factor, enhancing the performance of the PB-ROE strategy [4][6] - The active quantitative stock selection strategy based on the PB-ROE framework has achieved an annualized return of 20.42% since 2010, significantly outperforming benchmarks like the CSI 800 [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of 21.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, and GMV of 43.1 billion yuan, up 7.5% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [2][5]. - The company expects Q4 revenue to be between 33.2 billion and 34.9 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 0% to 5%, which is above consensus expectations [2][5]. - The company is focused on high-quality development and anticipates continued year-on-year growth in user numbers and stable profit margins in 2026 [2][5]. Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the Non-GAAP net profit was 1.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, surpassing consensus expectations of 10.6% [2][5]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 23%, with expectations to maintain this level in the future [5]. - The company has a buyback plan with a remaining budget of 621.4 million USD, aiming to return at least 75% of 2024 Non-GAAP net profit to shareholders [5][6]. User Engagement - The quarterly active user count reached 40.1 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, with SVIP membership growing at a double-digit rate [2][5]. - The company has implemented exclusive sales events for SVIP members to enhance user experience and loyalty [5]. Valuation and Target Price - The target valuation for the company is set between 20.58 and 25.72 USD, based on a projected Non-GAAP net profit multiple of 8-10 times for 2025 [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 revenue of 3.36 billion (+10.8% YoY), with net profit at 920 million (-17.9% YoY) and Non-GAAP net profit at 990 million (-20.4% YoY) [1][6]. - The freight matching revenue reached 2.8 billion (+9.6% YoY), with brokerage business revenue at 1.09 billion (-14.6% YoY), membership revenue at 250 million (+10.6% YoY), and commission revenue at 1.46 billion (+39.0% YoY) [1][6]. - The company is a leading digital freight platform with strong network effects, benefiting from a robust supply of drivers and continuous growth in the number of shippers and order volume [1][6]. - The company expects Q4 revenue to be approximately 3.08 to 3.18 billion, primarily impacted by short-term adjustments in the brokerage business [6]. Financial Performance - The company’s projected main revenue for 2023 is 8.436 billion, with a growth rate of 25% [2]. - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to grow from 2.725 billion in 2023 to 6.560 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [2][9]. - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 30.0 in 2023 to 12.5 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics over time [2][10]. Operational Metrics - The number of active shippers (MAU) reached 3.35 million (+17.6% YoY), with fulfillment order volume at 63.4 million (+22.2% YoY) [6]. - The fulfillment rate improved to 40.6%, a year-on-year increase of approximately 6 percentage points [6]. - The company’s gross margin for Q3 was 52.2%, with a slight year-on-year decline due to increased costs in the brokerage business [6]. Investment Recommendation - The company is positioned as a market leader in the cross-city digital freight sector, with strong barriers to entry and continued high growth in core commission business [6]. - The target price is set at approximately 14.50 USD, based on a 20x PE multiple of the projected Non-GAAP net profit for 2026 [3][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for NVIDIA and its related industry chain companies, highlighting potential investment opportunities in server hardware components and domestic computing power manufacturers [9]. Core Insights - NVIDIA reported a record revenue of $57 billion for FY26Q3, representing a year-over-year increase of 62% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 22%, exceeding expectations [1][14]. - The data center segment showed strong growth, with revenue reaching $51.215 billion, up 66.4% year-over-year and 24.6% quarter-over-quarter, driven by the transition to accelerated computing and generative AI [2][15]. - The company expects continued high growth in FY26Q4, with a revenue guidance midpoint of $65 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 65.3% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 14% [3][36]. - NVIDIA's Blackwell platform momentum is strong, with the GB300 product contributing significantly to revenue, and the AI ecosystem is rapidly expanding without signs of a bubble [4][37]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY26Q3 revenue was $57 billion, with a non-GAAP gross margin of 73.6%, slightly below the previous year but above guidance [1][33]. - The operating expenses increased by 11% quarter-over-quarter, primarily due to rising costs in infrastructure and employee compensation [1][33]. Data Center Growth - Data center revenue reached $51.215 billion, with a significant contribution from the GB300 product, which accounted for about two-thirds of Blackwell's total revenue [2][20]. - The network products segment saw a revenue increase of 164.5% year-over-year, driven by advancements in NVLink and Spectrum-X technologies [2][22]. Future Outlook - The guidance for FY26Q4 indicates a revenue midpoint of $65 billion and a gross margin of approximately 75%, reflecting ongoing strong demand for the Blackwell architecture [3][36]. - The company anticipates that the global AI infrastructure market will reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion by the end of the decade, positioning NVIDIA as a key partner in this growth [15][41]. Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes the ongoing transition from traditional machine learning to generative AI, which is expected to drive significant capital expenditures in the cloud service provider sector, projected at $600 billion [16][38]. - NVIDIA's CUDA platform is highlighted as a critical enabler for this transition, supporting a wide range of applications across various industries [37][40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [5]. Core Insights - The merger of China International Capital Corporation (CICC) with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities marks a significant consolidation in the brokerage industry, driven by the focus on core business operations and regulatory guidance [2]. - Post-merger, CICC's total assets exceed 1 trillion yuan, positioning it as a strong competitor in the industry, with net capital nearing 174.7 billion yuan, closely approaching Huatai Securities [2]. - The report highlights the potential for increased market enthusiasm for brokerage stocks, driven by improved shareholder structures and high growth expectations, with a recommendation to focus on specific stocks such as Dongfang Securities and Xinyu Securities [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The brokerage sector is experiencing a wave of mergers, with CICC's consolidation being a pivotal event, reflecting a trend towards integration among firms under the same controlling shareholder [2]. - The total market capitalization of the industry is reported at 6,423.3 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 6,146.9 billion yuan, indicating a substantial market presence [5]. Performance Metrics - The report notes a 5% increase in the sector's stock prices year-to-date, with the overall sector performance showing a 31-32% increase, suggesting a favorable investment environment [3]. - The absolute performance over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is recorded at -1.0%, 15.6%, and 8.7% respectively, indicating varying levels of market response [7]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued consolidation in the brokerage sector, driven by regulatory policies and the need for firms to focus on their core competencies [2]. - The potential for CICC to effectively integrate resources from Dongxing and Xinda could lead to enhanced competitive positioning against major players like Huatai Securities [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [3]. Core Insights - Tesla's Robotaxi service officially opened to the public on November 18, marking a shift from closed testing to commercial operation, with over 2 million downloads on the first day [2]. - The initial service areas include Austin, Texas, and the San Francisco Bay Area, with a fleet size estimated at around 100 vehicles across both locations [2]. - Future plans include deploying over 1,500 vehicles by the end of 2025, expanding to additional states such as Arizona, Nevada, and Florida [2]. - Significant financial impacts from Robotaxi are expected in the second half of 2026, with plans to cover 8-10 cities by year-end [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Scale - The automotive industry comprises 265 companies, with a total market capitalization of approximately 4,529.5 billion and a circulating market capitalization of about 3,917.7 billion [3]. Performance Metrics - Absolute performance over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months shows changes of -4.3%, 20.7%, and 38.5% respectively, while relative performance indicates changes of -5.5%, 3.3%, and 22.8% [4].