1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the current position of bond market sentiment through seven indicators, including the bond market sentiment index, institutional duration, leverage ratio, secondary trading, institutional allocation power, primary subscription, and relative valuation. It provides data on the changes in these indicators over the past week, reflecting the dynamics of the bond market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Sentiment Index - Last week, the bond market sentiment index was 116.1, up 0.1 from the previous value; the bond market sentiment diffusion index was 50.1%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous value [2]. 3.2 Institutional Duration Tracking - As of last Friday, the fund duration was 1.39 years, up 0.03 years from the previous Friday; the duration of city and rural commercial banks was 6.71 years, down 0.07 years; the insurance duration was 7.56 years, down 0.01 years [2]. 3.3 Leverage Ratio Tracking - Last week, the balance of pledged repurchase was 12.5 trillion yuan, down 0.1 trillion yuan from the previous value; the net lending balance of large - scale banks was 5.4 trillion yuan, down 0.1 trillion yuan; the bond market leverage ratio was 103.8%, unchanged from the previous value [2]. 3.4 Secondary Trading Tracking - In terms of turnover rate last week, the turnover rate of 30Y treasury bonds was 2.4%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous value; the turnover rate of 10Y treasury bonds was 0.7%, down 0.3 percentage points; the turnover rate of 10Y CDB bonds was 23.0%, down 0.5 percentage points; the turnover rate of ultra - long - term credit bonds was 0.25%, up 0.05 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Institutional Allocation Power Tracking - The newly issued shares of bond funds last week were 5.1 billion yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the stock market risk premium was 0.53%, unchanged from the previous value; the US dollar index was 98.4, down 0.8 from the previous value. The 6M bill transfer discount rate - 6M certificate of deposit rose 1.2bp to - 46.6bp, indicating an increase in loan demand. In terms of institutional allocation power, the bond allocation index of city and rural commercial banks was - 56.4%, down 76.6 percentage points from the previous value; the insurance bond allocation index was 68.4%, down 6.2 percentage points; the money fund bond allocation index was - 32.2%, up 47.2 percentage points; the insurance's allocation index for Tier 2 and perpetual bonds was 4.9%, down 6.9 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Primary Subscription Tracking - Last week, the overall multiple of treasury bonds increased by 0.9 times to 4.4 times; the overall multiple of local bonds increased by 0.5 times to 20.0 times; the overall multiple of CDB bonds decreased by 0.1 times to 3.7 times [2]. 3.7 Relative Valuation Tracking - Last week, the spread between 10 - year CDB bonds and treasury bonds narrowed by 1.0bp to 15.9bp; the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds widened by 3.2bp to 48.0bp; the spread between old and new 10 - year CDB bonds widened by 1.3bp to - 3.9bp; the spread between 10 - year local bonds and treasury bonds narrowed by 4.3bp to 16.9bp [2].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is experiencing significant changes in liquidity, with a notable outflow of funds from ETFs, particularly from broad-based indices like the CSI 300 and SSE 50, which saw a net outflow exceeding 300 billion [2][5][9] - The report highlights a paradigm shift in the pricing mechanism of global resource assets, particularly after silver prices surpassed 100 USD, suggesting a systemic revaluation of commodities and a return to a "quasi-gold standard" mindset [2][6][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-performance growth sectors, including cyclical resource stocks and technology sectors like semiconductors, as key investment strategies moving forward [2][8][9] Group 2 - The report notes that the global monetary system is undergoing a significant transformation, with the trust in the US dollar as a reserve currency declining, leading to a potential revaluation of precious metals and strategic resources [6][26][27] - It discusses the implications of geopolitical tensions and the shift in resource security becoming a core national strategy, which could lead to increased volatility and pricing power in critical minerals [29][30][31] - The report suggests that the demand for resources is being structurally supported by coordinated policies from major economies, particularly in China and the US, which are expected to drive significant demand for industrial metals [31][32]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [1][6]. Core Insights - The coconut water industry is currently experiencing rapid growth, with increasing competition. As a leading player, the company benefits from a first-mover advantage and is actively expanding its domestic brand and channel presence. If industry regulations are implemented, the company is expected to maintain its market share [1][6]. - The company's performance in 2025 was impacted by the interruption of shipments from the innococo brand, as well as currency and cost pressures. However, a return to high revenue growth is anticipated in 2026, with significant profit recovery potential [1][6]. - The company is expected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 0.68 and 1.16 RMB for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a valuation of 14 times earnings for 2026. Given the industry's growth phase and the company's profit recovery potential, the "Buy" rating is justified [1][6]. Financial Overview - The company is projected to generate total revenue of 1,298 million RMB in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 15%, and 1,651 million RMB in 2026, reflecting a 27% increase [7][11]. - The net profit for 2025 is expected to be 181 million RMB, down 25% year-on-year, but is forecasted to rebound to 309 million RMB in 2026, representing a 71% increase [7][11]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 12.0% in 2025 and improve to 17.6% in 2026 [12]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its brand education and marketing efforts, particularly through platforms like Xiaohongshu, to increase consumer awareness of its 100% natural product attributes. It is also pushing for the implementation of industry regulations that could eliminate lower-quality brands, thereby increasing market concentration [6][7]. - The company has established a Chinese office in Shanghai and formed a dedicated team for market maintenance and channel expansion, aiming to strengthen its domestic market presence [6][7]. - Collaborations with seven contract manufacturers, including General Beverage, are in place, with plans to consider domestic factories to optimize the supply chain [6][7].

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2026 年 01 月 25 日 分众传媒（002027.SZ） 数禾减值系一次性非经常影响，不影响公司分红能力 TMT 及中小盘/传媒 事件: 公司于 1 月 23 日公告拟以人民币 7.91 亿元的对价完全退出数禾科技投 资项目，对"长期股权投资-数禾"计提减值 21.53 亿元；该资产账面价值为 29.44 亿元、可回收金额为 7.91 亿元。公司已与交易各方签署《框架协议》并收到首 付款人民币 4.04 亿元；公司确认已从数禾退出，数禾不再是公司的联营公司。 ❑ 风险提示：海外扩张不及预期风险、竞争风险、广告主投放不及预期风险。 | 财务数据与估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 11904 | 12262 | 13036 | 13576 | 14090 | | 同比增长 | 26% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 4% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 5792 | 6041 | ...

- The short-term timing model maintains an optimistic signal this week, supported by macro fundamentals, valuation caution, neutral sentiment, and optimistic liquidity[18][19][22] - The short-term timing strategy has achieved an annualized return of 16.78% since 2012, with an annualized excess return of 11.67%, and a maximum drawdown of 15.05%, significantly outperforming the benchmark strategy[20][21][24] - The growth-value rotation model suggests overweighting growth stocks this week, driven by favorable macro fundamentals, valuation metrics, and sentiment indicators. The model has delivered an annualized return of 13.34% since 2012, with an annualized excess return of 4.99%[30][31][33] - The small-cap and large-cap rotation model has shifted from favoring small caps to large caps this week. The model utilizes 11 effective rotation indicators, including financing buy balance changes and R007 rate trends. Since 2014, the strategy has consistently generated positive annual excess returns, with a 2026 year-to-date excess return of 1.43%[34][35][36] - The comprehensive signal smoothing for small-cap rotation achieved an annualized return of 20.85%, with an annualized excess return of 13.11%, and a maximum drawdown of 40.70%[36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the transportation industry [2] Core Views - The shipping sector is experiencing high oil tanker rates and improving bulk freight rates, while the express delivery industry is expected to see a growth rate of 13.6% year-on-year in 2025 [1][6][19] Shipping - Oil tanker rates remain high, influenced by geopolitical tensions, with the market sentiment showing signs of volatility [6][12] - The dry bulk shipping market is showing signs of improvement, with increased inquiries from Australian miners and rising grain prices from South America [14][15] - Key stocks to focus on include COSCO Shipping Energy, China Merchants Energy, Haitong Development, and Pacific Shipping [6][15] Infrastructure - Weekly data shows a slight increase in truck traffic, with 56.12 million vehicles recorded, a 1.87% increase week-on-week, but a 1.6% decrease year-on-year [16][17] - Port throughput reached 261.318 million tons, a 6.2% increase year-on-year, while container throughput increased by 7.5% [16][17] - Recommended stocks include Anhui Expressway, which is seen as a stable cash flow asset with low current valuations [17] Express Delivery - The express delivery industry saw a total volume of 199 billion items in 2025, a 13.6% increase year-on-year, with December showing a 2.3% increase [18][19] - The competitive landscape is expected to stabilize, with major companies like SF Express and ZTO Express showing potential for profit growth in 2026 [19] - Recommended stocks include SF Express, ZTO Express, and YTO Express [19] Aviation - The aviation sector is currently in a transitional phase due to the Spring Festival timing, with passenger numbers showing a 9.9% year-on-year decrease [20][21] - The industry is expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics and lower fuel prices in 2026 [21] - Key metrics to monitor include passenger volume and ticket pricing trends during the Spring Festival [21] Logistics - The logistics sector is seeing fluctuations in air freight prices, with a recent decrease of 2% week-on-week but a 7.4% increase year-on-year [22]

ETF 基金周度跟踪（0119-0123） 本报告重点聚焦 ETF 基金市场表现，总结过去一周 ETF 基金市场、不同热门 细分类型 ETF 基金、创新主题及细分行业 ETF 基金的业绩表现和资金流动， 供投资者参考。 ❑ 市场表现： 证券研究报告 | 基金研究（公募） 2026 年 1 月 24 日 黄金股 ETF 领涨，资金大幅流出沪深 300 ETF 本周（1 月 19 日-1 月 23 日）股票 ETF 涨跌分化，商品类 ETF 表现较好。 其中，沪港深主题（主要是黄金股）、商品和周期 ETF 涨幅靠前，规模以 上基金分别平均上涨 12.97%、6.82%、5.10%。相反，港股医药生物和沪 港深行业下跌，规模以上基金平均跌幅为 2.94%和 2.10%。 ❑ 资金流动： 资金主要净流入 A 股周期 ETF 和 A 股 TMT ETF，全周资金分别净流入 178.25 亿元、125.93 亿元。相反，A 股大盘 ETF 和 A 股中小盘 ETF 分别 大幅净流出 2719.92 亿元和 831.51 亿元。 ❑ 风险提示：图表中列示的数据结果仅为对市场及个基历史表现的客观描述， 并不预示其未来表现，亦 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint On January 23, 2026, the reform plan for the performance comparison benchmark of publicly - offered securities investment funds was officially implemented. This report focuses on the main adjustments of the official version compared with the draft for soliciting opinions [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Performance Comparison Benchmark Specification - **Benchmark Element Library Selection**: The official version weakens the requirement for the fund manager to explain when selecting a stock index from the second - category library or outside the benchmark element library. It encourages fund managers to select and use performance comparison benchmark elements from the first - category library when developing actively managed funds [2][3]. - **Benchmark Element Preference Rules**: Different from the draft, the official version deepens the perspective to the underlying assets of the fund, providing targeted requirements for different underlying asset classes of the same fund, which is more in line with the current development status of domestic public funds [3]. - **Disclosure Requirements in Periodic Reports**: The official version has three main changes: relaxing the requirements for special fund types, weakening the disclosure requirements for the credit rating distribution comparison of bond - type funds, and adding the requirement to disclose the comparison of the asset allocation of FOFs and their benchmarks [6]. 3.2 External Supervision, Sales and Evaluation - **Fund Custodian's Monitoring of Benchmark Deviations**: The official version requires fund custodians to focus on the single - industry deviation of actively managed funds with industry - themed indices as benchmarks [8][9]. - **Sales Display Requirements**: The official version includes the performance display of fund evaluation institutions and limits the covered fund types to stock funds, hybrid funds, and FOFs [10][11]. - **Business Requirements for Fund Evaluation Institutions**: The official version provides more detailed suggestions and key indicators for classifying funds based on benchmarks and states that fund managers and sales institutions can adopt the classification results of fund evaluation institutions [11]. 3.3 Regulatory Assessment and Transition Period - **Supervision and Management**: The official version includes fund sales institutions in the classified evaluation and supervision system [12]. - **Transition Period**: The transition period for the fund custodian to establish a supervision mechanism for the investment style stability of equity funds remains six months. The transition period for the performance comparison benchmark display rectification of fund managers, sales institutions, and evaluation institutions is extended from six months to one year. Additionally, one - year transition periods are set for three aspects including information transmission of benchmark changes and disclosure of performance comparison benchmarks in periodic reports [12].

证券研究报告 | 基金研究（公募） 2026 年 01 月 23 日 FOF 新发市场回温，规模相对集中于低风险 FOF FOF 基金 2025 年四季报点评 ❑ FOF 基金持仓分析： 徐燕红 S1090524120003 xuyanhong@cmschina.com 徐肖雅 研究助理 xuxiaoya@cmschina.com 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ 市场新闻：2025 年四季度，个人养老金 FOF 基金数量回升至 213 只，整体发 展平稳。截至 2025/12/31，2023 年以来完整运行的 132 只 Y 份额个人养老金基 金平均收益为 12.74%，收益区间为[-5.95%,36.14%]，130 只基金获得了正收益。 ❑ 市场概况：截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，全市场公募 FOF 基金共有 549 只，合 计管理规模 2441.88 亿元，其中低风险 FOF 规模占比约 66%。整体较 2025 年三季度末数量增加了 31 只，管理规模持续回升，相比三季度末增加 507.00 亿元，环比上升 26.20%，相较 2024 年末规模上升超过 80%。 ❑ 新发产品：2025 年四季 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the industry, indicating a strong demand driven by AI infrastructure and data center needs, despite some supply constraints [1][16]. Core Insights - Intel's Q4 2025 revenue reached $13.67 billion, slightly below the previous year but at the upper end of guidance, driven by strong growth in AI-related businesses [1][16]. - The company reported a non-GAAP gross margin of 37.9%, exceeding guidance due to revenue growth and reduced inventory reserves [1][16]. - The DCAI segment outperformed expectations with a 15% quarter-over-quarter revenue increase, benefiting from AI infrastructure demand [2][20]. - The company anticipates a revenue decline in Q1 2026, with guidance set between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion, reflecting seasonal trends and supply prioritization [3][22]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q4 2025 revenue was $13.67 billion, down 4.1% year-over-year but up 0.2% quarter-over-quarter, benefiting from AI infrastructure growth [1][16]. - Non-GAAP gross margin for Q4 was 37.9%, a decrease of 4.2 percentage points year-over-year but higher than the guidance of 36.5% [1][16]. - Full-year revenue for 2025 was $52.9 billion, a slight decline of 0.4% year-over-year, primarily due to supply constraints [1][16]. Segment Performance - Intel Products segment revenue was $12.9 billion in Q4, with a 2% quarter-over-quarter increase, while the DCAI segment saw a 15% increase [2][20]. - The Foundry segment reported $4.5 billion in revenue, up 6.4% quarter-over-quarter, but faced a $2.5 billion operating loss due to early production issues with the 18A process [2][21]. - The Client Computing Group (CCG) revenue was $8.2 billion, down 4% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting supply constraints but strong performance from new Ultra 3 products [2][19]. Future Guidance - For Q1 2026, revenue is expected to be between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion, with a non-GAAP gross margin forecasted at approximately 34.5% [3][22]. - Capital expenditures for 2026 are projected to be around $16 billion, maintaining a similar level to 2025 [3][22]. - The company aims to improve production efficiency and yield rates to meet market demand, particularly in the data center segment [3][24].