证券研究报告 | 公司深度报告 2025 年 04 月 14 日 长虹美菱（000521.SZ） 老牌国企向新，经营改善当时 消费品/家电 | 财务数据与估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 24248 | 28601 | 32971 | 35346 | 37748 | | 同比增长 | 20% | 18% | 15% | 7% | 7% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 802 | 815 | 966 | 1148 | 1380 | | 同比增长 | 181% | 2% | 19% | 19% | 20% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 741 | 699 | 828 | 984 | 1183 | | 同比增长 | 203% | -6% | 18% | 19% | 20% | | 每股收益(元) | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.80 | 0.96 | 1.15 | | PE | 10.3 | 11.0 | 9.2 ...

Macroeconomic Insights - Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials indicate a need for cautious observation of tariff-induced inflation, diminishing the positive impact of March's low inflation data on financial markets[4] - In March, the US CPI for goods (excluding food and energy) showed a month-on-month decline of -0.1%, with year-on-year growth at 0.0%[4] - Tariff-sensitive goods like household appliances and furniture saw year-on-year price adjustments of -2.5% and -1.8%, respectively[4] Market Reactions - Following the release of economic data, the US Treasury yield curve steepened, with the 2-year yield dropping to around 3.8% and the 10-year yield fluctuating around 4.3%[5] - The stock market indices adjusted downwards, while the US dollar index weakened after a brief recovery[5] Policy Implications - Post-tariff, there is an urgent need for domestic demand expansion policies, with potential new measures expected from the upcoming political bureau meeting[6] - The highest expected tariff rates will see a 90-day delay for reciprocal tariffs on most countries, with significant exemptions for electronic products, indicating a marginal improvement in tariff impacts[6] Historical Context - An analysis of the 2018 bond market during US-China trade tensions shows a general downtrend in bond yields, with the 10-year government bond yield declining by 65 basis points over the year[7] - The bond market's response to tariff announcements was significant, with the 10-year yield dropping to 3.5% following the announcement of tariffs on $500 billion worth of Chinese goods[8] Real Estate Outlook - The real estate market is characterized by strong demand in high-tier cities and weakening demand in lower-tier cities, with potential acceleration in existing policy implementations[16] - A decrease in mortgage rates could stimulate demand for new and second-hand homes, aiding in price stabilization[17] Banking Sector Considerations - The banking sector is expected to benefit from domestic policy adjustments aimed at countering external pressures, with a focus on the internationalization of the RMB in the long term[18] - The current economic environment presents a historical opportunity for RMB internationalization, particularly as US trade policies may undermine the dollar's global status[19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for the company [1][11][5] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue increase of 12% and a net profit increase of 9% year-on-year in Q4 2024, despite lower efficiency from the new factory impacting profitability [1][2] - The company is expanding its customer base rapidly, with new customer orders increasing significantly, and is enhancing its ability to secure high-quality orders through the development of supercritical foaming technology [1][11] - Forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are projected to be 4.34 billion, 4.94 billion, and 5.64 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 13%, 14%, and 14% respectively [1][11] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 240.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.35%, with net profit reaching 38.4 billion yuan, up 20% [2][10] - For Q4 2024, revenue was 64.95 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.9% increase year-on-year, while net profit was 9.97 billion yuan, a 9.2% increase [2][4] - The gross margin for 2024 improved by 1.2 percentage points to 26.8%, with a net margin of 15.98% [4][14] Customer and Product Breakdown - The top five customers accounted for 79.1% of total revenue in 2024, with significant growth in orders from key clients [2][3] - Revenue from sports leisure shoes was 209.6 billion yuan, representing a 17.88% increase, while outdoor footwear revenue decreased by 33.7% [3][4] Capacity Expansion and Operational Efficiency - The company is expanding its production capacity with new factories in Vietnam and Indonesia, and has begun localizing procurement to reduce costs and risks [11][10] - The cash flow from operating activities increased by 24.97% year-on-year to 46.17 billion yuan in 2024, indicating strong operational efficiency [4][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][6] Core Views - The company achieved a year-on-year revenue growth of 10.0% and a net profit growth of 17.8% in Q4, continuing its trend of high-quality growth [1][5] - For 2024, the company is expected to perform well despite market pressures, with a focus on channel improvement and new product promotion, leading to sustained growth [1][6] - EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are projected at 1.28 and 1.40 CNY respectively, with the current stock price corresponding to a PE ratio of 33 times for 2025 [1][6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 269.01 billion CNY, a 9.53% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 63.44 billion CNY, up 12.75% [5][7] - Q4 results showed revenue of 65.02 billion CNY and net profit of 15.29 billion CNY, reflecting a 10.03% and 17.81% increase year-on-year respectively [5][7] - The company’s gross margin improved to 37.00% in 2024, up 2.26 percentage points from the previous year, driven by cost optimization and efficiency improvements [5][7] Segment Performance - Soy sauce revenue reached 137.58 billion CNY in 2024, with a volume increase of 11.63% despite a 2.5% decline in average price [5][7] - Oyster sauce revenue was 46.15 billion CNY, with an 8.56% increase year-on-year, and a slight average price increase of 0.4% [5][7] - The company’s other product categories also showed strong growth, with total revenue of 40.86 billion CNY, a 16.75% increase year-on-year [5][7] Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 50.87 billion CNY for 2024, representing a significant payout ratio of 80.19% [5][7]

证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2025 年 04 月 14 日 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 467 | 9.1 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 5546.3 | 6.7 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 4906.0 | 6.5 | 消费医疗行业周报（八） 我国重组胶原蛋白新材料实现溶液、凝胶、固体的剂型 全覆盖 消费品/生物医药 2025 年 4 月 9 日，锦波生物"注射用重组Ⅲ型人源化胶原蛋白凝胶"获批上市， 至此，锦波生物已掌握国内前三张重组Ⅲ型人源化胶原蛋白械三证书，实现了 我国重组胶原蛋白新材料溶液、凝胶、固体的剂型覆盖，满足了临床应用场景 的多样化需求。 推荐（维持） 1、《关税升级背景下，关注医药板 块内需、国产创新、进口替代等属性 及相关个股—关税升级事件医药行 业点评》2025-04-07 2、《药监局发文支持高端医疗器械 创新发展，迎长期利好—药监局征求 意见稿点评》2025-04-02 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -4.5 -6.3 -1.1 相对表现 0.4 -2.8 -8.1 资料来源：公司数据、招 ...

Economic Analysis - The U.S. has consistently maintained a trade deficit, averaging $73.79 billion annually from 1973 until China's WTO accession, with manufacturing contributing only 0.58% to annual GDP growth during that period[3] - In 2022, U.S. manufacturing GDP grew by 11.45%, yet the trade deficit exceeded $1 trillion for the first time[3] - During the global economic boom from 2004 to 2007, the U.S. trade deficit expanded by 40.1% as global GDP growth averaged 4.33%[3] Policy Implications - The goals of maintaining the dollar's global currency status while reducing the trade deficit are inherently contradictory, as seen in historical agreements like the Plaza Accord[3] - The return of manufacturing to the U.S. will not resolve the trade deficit issue, indicating a complex economic landscape for policymakers[3] Market Indicators - The rising gold prices may reflect market anticipations regarding the challenges faced by the Trump administration in achieving multiple economic objectives[3] - Risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and potential global recession impacting major economies' monetary policies[3]

4 月第 2 周化工行业无子行业上涨，31 个子行业下跌。下跌子行业前五是： 炭黑（-11.23%），石油贸易（-8.08%），其他塑料制品（-7.94%），粘胶 （-7.85%），聚氨酯（-7.63%）。 化学品价格及价差走势 证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 04 月 14 日 PVDF、二氯丙烷价格涨幅居前，建议关注市场空间大的新材料 招商化工行业周报 2025 年 4 月第 2 周 周期/化工 本报告阐述了基础化工板块一周行情走势、产品价格及价差变化、重点推荐子 行业及公司。 板块整体走势 4 月第 2 周化工板块（申万）下跌 5.14%，上证 A 指下跌 3.10%，板块落后 大盘 2.04 个百分点。涨幅排名前 5 的个股分别为：泰和新材（+12.55%）， 利尔化学（+9.3%），红宝丽（+9.25%），尤夫股份（+8.65%），恒天海 龙（+7.29%）；跌幅排名前 5 的个股分别为：永利股份（-19.77%），卫星 化学（-19.33%），银禧科技（-16.93%），安利股份（-16.72%），黑猫股 份（-15.71%）。此外，本周化工板块（申万）动态 PE 为 23.07 倍 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Zijin Mining [4] Core Views - The company achieved record high profits in Q1 2025, with revenue of 78.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 10.167 billion yuan, up 62.4% year-on-year and 32.2% quarter-on-quarter [7] - The production of copper and gold increased, with copper output at 288,000 tons and gold output at 19 tons, representing year-on-year increases of 9.5% and 13.4%, respectively [7] - The report highlights a significant improvement in gross margins due to price increases for copper and gold, with Q1 2025 gross margins for copper and gold at 61.1% and 60.9%, respectively, reflecting increases of 3.3 and 9.5 percentage points year-on-year [7] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 293.4 billion yuan in 2023, 303.6 billion yuan in 2024, and an estimated 376.2 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9%, 3%, and 24% respectively [3] - The estimated net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 21.12 billion yuan in 2023, 32.05 billion yuan in 2024, and 40.96 billion yuan in 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 5%, 52%, and 28% respectively [3] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is 21.6, with projections of 14.2 for 2024, 11.1 for 2025, and further declines to 8.3 by 2027, indicating a potential for valuation recovery [15] Price Assumptions - The report assumes copper prices at 77,305 yuan/ton and gold prices at 678 yuan/gram for 2025, reflecting increases from previous years [8] Shareholder Information - The major shareholder is Minxi Xinghang State-owned Assets Investment Management, holding a 22.89% stake in the company [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 6.901 billion RMB and a net profit of 574 million RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.50% and 13.82% respectively [1][7]. - The company has significantly increased its overseas contributions, with foreign sales revenue reaching 1.98 billion RMB, a substantial increase of 68.26% [6][7]. - The company is actively expanding its presence in the data center transformer market, benefiting from the aIDC trend, with new orders increasing by 604% [18][19]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to have total revenue of 6.901 billion RMB, with a gross profit margin of 24.32%, an increase of 1.51 percentage points year-on-year [8][28]. - The company’s net profit margin improved to 8.3%, up by 0.8 percentage points [7][9]. - The company’s debt ratio decreased to 53.8%, down by 7.6 percentage points, primarily due to the conversion of convertible bonds [6][7]. Business Development - The company has added 890 new customers and achieved a sales order growth of 13.63%, with foreign orders making up 37% of total sales [12][13]. - The company has completed the expansion of its factory in Mexico and is preparing to build a factory in the United States, indicating a strong commitment to international growth [13][17]. - The company is also focusing on new business areas such as energy storage and digital transformation, with energy storage revenue expected to reach 520 million RMB in 2024, a growth of 26.34% [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance relative to the benchmark index [5]. Core Insights - The financial data for March 2025 shows a positive trend in social financing and M1 growth, suggesting a recovery in credit and liquidity conditions [4][3]. - The increase in credit by 3.64 trillion yuan in March, a year-on-year increase of 0.55 trillion yuan, reflects a growth rate of 18%, primarily driven by the multiplier effect of debt resolution [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of M1 as an indicator of economic vitality, noting that its growth rate of 1.6% in March is higher than the previous December's 1.2% [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Data Analysis - March's social financing increased by 8.4% year-on-year, with a notable contribution from government debt and active deposits [13]. - The structure of credit growth indicates a shift towards short-term corporate loans, with a decrease in corporate bond financing [2][4]. M1 and Economic Indicators - M1 growth is recovering but remains low compared to social financing and nominal GDP growth targets, indicating a need for further economic circulation improvement [3][4]. - The report highlights that the increase in M1 is significantly influenced by fiscal policy, with government debt and fiscal deposits contributing to approximately 70% of the M1 increase in March [3][4]. Long-term Outlook - The report suggests a long-term optimistic view for the banking sector, driven by potential improvements in the international status of the yuan and domestic economic stability [4]. - It notes that while short-term challenges exist, particularly from tariff impacts, there is room for fiscal policy to support demand and supply in the economy, benefiting the banking sector [4].