专题报告 相关报告 1、《地方两会陆续召开，"两 新"政策接续》20250117 2、《2025 年政府工作报告怎么 看？对 A 股有什么影响——政 策专题（0305）》20250305 3、《2024 年中央经济工作会议 如何指引 A 股？———中央经 济工作会议点评》2024-12-13 4、《12 月政治局会议五大看点 ——政策专题》2024-12-09 5、《924 发布会一揽子政策出 台 ， 将 如 何 影 响 A 股 ？ 》 2024-09-24 张夏 S1090513080006 zhangxia1@cmschina.com.cn 郭佳宜 研究助理 guojiayi@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ 核心关注：美国对等关税落地后，国内还有哪些政策预期尚待落地？ 美国 总统特朗普 4 月 2 日在白宫签署两项关于"对等关税"的行政令，若政策落 地则将对出口产生较大影响。因此，政策亟待发力提振内需。李强总理在上 月末举行的中国发展高层论坛 2025 年年会中也曾明确表态，必要时推出新 的增量政策。因此，政策进一步发力值得期待。3 月两会期间的经济主题记 者会给予了较多的政策 ...

关税靴子落地，出口行业影响面面观 ——特朗普对等关税点评 事件： 当地时间 2025 年 4 月 2 日，特朗普发表讲话并签署行政令，宣布美国对贸易伙 伴设立 10%的"最低基准关税"，并对部分贸易伙伴征收更高关税。 证券研究报告 | 宏观分析报告 2025 年 4 月 3 日 核心观点： ❑ 第一，对等关税大超市场预期，欧洲、加墨、南美受影响相对较小，亚非地 区加征高额税率，本质或是基于制造竞争力实施梯队关税。 欧洲方面，本次宣布的欧盟对等税率为 20%，略低于此前预期的 25%，英 国税率仅为 10% 加墨方面，本应在4月5日加征的25%关税取消，取而代之的是符合USMCA 的加墨产品不征收关税，不符合 USMCA 的加墨产品征收 25%关税，不符 合 USMCA 的能源和钾肥征收 10%关税，若芬太尼/移民 IEEPA 命令被终止 还有下修的空间，即符合 USMCA 的商品将不征收关税，不符合 SMCA 的 商品征收 12%的对等关税。 南美方面，巴西、智利、哥伦比亚、秘鲁均只加 10%。 亚洲方面，日本、韩国、印度分别为 24%、25%、26%，东盟国家遭重，菲 律宾、马来西亚、印尼、泰国、缅甸、越南 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 22.26 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, but faced a net loss of 570 million yuan due to the impact of Gramer's performance [1][5] - The revenue from the Gramer division was 16.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.1% year-on-year, while the revenue from the company's own division increased by 60.3% to 6.43 billion yuan [5] - The company aims for a 50%-80% increase in sales revenue for the passenger car seat business in 2025, building on the growth from 2024 [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 14.0%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in product sales structure and a decline in commercial vehicle seat gross margins [5] - The overall expense ratio for 2024 was 14.8%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, with management expenses rising to 9.5% [5] - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 650 million, 1.05 billion, and 1.25 billion yuan respectively [5][6] Business Segments - The passenger car seat business delivered 330,000 sets, generating revenue of 3.11 billion yuan, marking a significant increase from 655 million yuan in the previous year [5] - The smart air vent business generated revenue of 410 million yuan in 2024, up from 280 million yuan, with EBIT of 44 million yuan [5] - The company also began generating revenue from the car refrigerator business, contributing approximately 120 million yuan [5] Market Outlook - The company is transitioning from a domestic supplier to a global supplier of passenger car seats, with 21 ongoing projects as of February 28, 2025 [5] - The report highlights the potential for significant earnings elasticity driven by the continued production of passenger car seats and the improvement of Gramer's profitability in Europe [5]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the photovoltaic conductive paste sector, capitalizing on opportunities during multiple iterations of domestic production, mono and multi-crystalline transitions, and the switch to N-type technology, resulting in rapid business expansion [7][11]. - The innovative TOPCon high-copper paste solution utilizes silver-coated copper powder to significantly reduce costs by replacing a large proportion of silver powder with lower-cost copper, which is compatible with high-temperature processes while maintaining electrical performance and reliability [7][11]. - If the company successfully collaborates with downstream customers, mass production is expected within the year, which will enhance both scale and profitability [1][7]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company forecasts total revenue of 9.6 billion RMB in 2023, growing to 15.4 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 155% and 60% respectively [2]. - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 385 million RMB in 2023 and 360 million RMB in 2024, with significant growth anticipated in subsequent years [2]. - The company maintains a high return on equity (ROE) of 21.5% and a debt-to-asset ratio of 78.6% [3][2]. Company Overview - Established in 2010, the company focuses on the research, production, and sales of conductive paste for photovoltaic cells, becoming the first domestic company to list in this sector in 2020 [11][12]. - The company has expanded into the semiconductor field since 2019, leveraging its core technology platform to introduce packaging and printed electronic pastes [11][21]. - The company has maintained a strong R&D focus, with R&D expenses consistently accounting for 3-4% of total revenue [24][11]. Market Position and Growth - The company has achieved a leading position in the N-type paste market, with a significant increase in shipments, particularly in 2023, where sales volume surged by 138% to 1714 tons [40][42]. - The company is actively involved in the technological iteration of photovoltaic materials, adapting to the rapid transition from P-type to diverse N-type technologies, which enhances its competitive edge [40][42]. - The anticipated completion of the silver nitrate project in 2025 is expected to further stabilize the supply chain and reduce material costs [40][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the AI+Education industry, particularly highlighting companies with strong research and product capabilities that are early adopters of AI technology [2][3]. Core Insights - The AI+Education sector is experiencing significant growth, driven by advancements in AI technology, supportive policies, and a strong demand for personalized learning solutions. Companies like Duolingo and Bean Education are leading the way with innovative AI features that enhance user experience and increase user value [2][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of both hardware and software applications in the AI+Education landscape, noting that the integration of AI into educational tools is expanding rapidly across various learning scenarios [46][62]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The AI+Education industry is evolving from traditional online education, with a clear trajectory towards more interactive and personalized learning experiences. Companies that have established a strong brand presence and research capabilities are well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing penetration of AI in education [13][14]. Development Drivers - Key factors driving the growth of AI+Education include a broad user base with a strong willingness to pay, supportive government policies promoting equitable access to educational resources, and technological advancements that reduce costs and improve the functionality of educational tools [29][33]. Application Scenarios - The report categorizes AI applications in education into hardware and software dimensions. In the hardware sector, smart learning devices are gaining traction, particularly in the wake of regulatory changes that limit traditional tutoring methods. In the software sector, AI-powered learning apps are emerging, offering personalized learning paths and automated grading features [46][62]. Company Insights - Duolingo is highlighted for its gamified approach and rapid user growth, with innovative features like AI-driven video calls enhancing user engagement. The company reported a DAU of 40.5 million in Q4 2024, a 51% year-over-year increase [2][69]. - Bean Education is noted for its AI capabilities that enhance user experience and increase customer value through personalized learning solutions. The company is actively exploring partnerships to develop next-generation educational products [2][69]. - Other companies such as Good Future and Youdao are also making significant strides in integrating AI into their educational offerings, with a focus on enhancing existing products and launching new applications [2][69].

证券研究报告 | 固定收益研究 2025 年 04 月 03 日 关注转债抗跌性 可转债策略周报（0324-0328） 一、一周行情回顾：转债市场继续随权益市场下跌，跌幅较前一周收窄 截至上周五，万得全 A 指数收于 5,161.01 点，一周下跌 1.29%；上证指数收于 3,351.31 点，一周下跌 0.40%；中证转债收于 429.63 点，一周下跌 0.20%；可 转债正股指数收于 1,803.07 点，一周下跌 2.19%。 权益市场方面，上周上证指数缩量下跌。上周上证指数、深证综指及创业板指 下跌，沪深 300、上证 50、深证 100 小幅上涨，大盘股优势明显。分行业看， 上周医药生物、农林牧渔、食品饮料和家用电器行业表现较好，前期表现强劲 的计算机、通信行业在继续领跌。 转债行情方面，中证转债指数小幅下跌，同时成交量、成交额继续下滑。上周 AA+级别转债、大盘转债、低价转债表现占优。分行业看，农林牧渔、家用电 器、公用事业、非银金融、银行行业转债表现相对较好，通信、电气设备、计 算机、汽车和国防军工行业转债跌幅领先。个券层面，回盛转债（农林牧渔）、 润禾转债（化工）、汇车退债（汽车）、京源转 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 1870 CNY, while the current stock price is 1549.02 CNY [3]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience a reasonable revenue growth slowdown to around 9% in 2025, following two years of sales growth exceeding 10%. This is attributed to external environmental pressures faced in 2023 and 2024. The easing of volume pressure is anticipated to stabilize the wholesale price [1][6]. - The focus for the company will shift towards enhancing channel service capabilities and quality, as well as cultivating consumer groups. Historically, industry adjustment periods have provided opportunities for strong companies to further exploit their potential and expand their advantages [1][6]. - The current valuation stands at 21x PE, with a dividend yield maintained above 3.5%, indicating a safety margin for investors [1][6]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 1741.4 billion CNY and a net profit of 862.3 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth of 15.7% and 15.4%, respectively [6][7]. - The sales revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor in 2024 was 1459 billion CNY and 247 billion CNY, showing growth of 15.3% and 19.7%, respectively. Moutai liquor sales volume increased by 10.2% to 46,413 tons [6][7]. - The company’s operating cash flow increased by 38.9% year-on-year to 924.6 billion CNY in 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 75% [6][7]. Financial Projections - The projected total revenue for the company is expected to reach 190.1 billion CNY in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9% [7][15]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 74.78 CNY in 2025, with a PE ratio of 20.7 [7][16]. - The company’s net profit margin is projected to remain stable around 49.4% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 37.9% [16].

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 03 日 赛力斯（601127.SH） 2024 业绩高增，领跑高端 SUV 市场 中游制造/汽车 2024 年 11 月，公司发布全新一代赛力斯超级增程系统。该系统采用赛翼 （C2E）增城架构，实现 RoboREX 智能控制，热效率达 44.8%，综合油耗 降低 15%，1 升油可发电超 3.6 度，处于行业量产增程器的领先水平。2024 年，公司增程器销量达 47 万台。 此外，智能座舱及智能驾驶领域，公司与华为联合开发并量产的鸿蒙座舱和 ADS 智驾系统，率先实现全国无图智驾。公司深度融合整车控制技术，持续 优化智驾体验，实现全维安全进化。智能测试领域，公司运用大数据、自动 化和 AI 技术，构建 VTS+VHR+IDS 三大系统，提供全链路、全生命周期主动 智慧服务。 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：125.82 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 1633 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 1510 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 205.5 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 190.0 | | 每股净 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2025 年 04 月 03 日 通信行业事件点评 卫星互联网技术试验星成功发射，手机直连技术验证提速 TMT 及中小盘/通信 事件：北京时间 2025 年 4 月 1 日 12 时 00 分，我国在酒泉卫星发射中心使 用长征二号丁运载火箭，成功将卫星互联网技术试验卫星发射升空，卫星顺 利进入预定轨道，发射任务获得圆满成功。 重点公司主要财务指标 | 公司简称 | 公司代码 | 市值 | 22EPS | 23EPS | 23PE | PB | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 信科移动-U | 688387.SH | 19.32 | -0.23 | -0.10 | -54.06 | 3.03 | | 创意信息 | 300366.SZ | 3.99 | -0.10 | -0.79 | -8.41 | 2.30 | | 铖昌科技 | 001270.SZ | 6.18 | 1.33 | 0.51 | 77.59 | 4.54 | | 通宇通讯 | 002792.SZ | 7.73 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 95.17 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hangzhou Bank is "Strongly Recommended" [3] Core Views - Hangzhou Bank has demonstrated stable operations and high growth potential, with a strong performance in Q1 2025, maintaining high profit growth and excellent asset quality indicators [1][6] - The bank's total assets reached 2.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, with loan and deposit growth rates of 14.3% and 21.1%, respectively [6][6] - The non-performing loan ratio remains low at 0.76%, and the provision coverage ratio is robust at 530.07%, indicating strong asset quality [6][6] - The bank's governance structure is sound, with a stable core management team, which supports its strategic continuity and operational stability [6][6] - The ongoing conversion of 15 billion yuan in convertible bonds is expected to further strengthen the bank's capital base and accelerate business expansion [6][6] Financial Data and Valuation - Total operating revenue (in million yuan) is projected to grow from 32,932 in 2022 to 45,804 in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.2% [2][37] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 11,679 million yuan in 2022 to 22,298 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 14.1% [2][37] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 1.83 yuan in 2022 to 3.64 yuan in 2026 [2][37] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 8.0 in 2022 to 4.0 in 2026, indicating increasing valuation attractiveness [2][37] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to remain strong at 12.5% [3] Performance Metrics - In Q1 2025, the bank achieved a year-on-year revenue growth of 2.2% and a net profit growth of 17.3%, continuing its trend of double-digit growth [6][6] - The bank's asset quality remains a core strength, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.76% and a provision coverage ratio of 530.07% [6][6] - The bank's total assets and deposits have shown strong growth, with total assets increasing by 15.8% year-on-year and deposits growing by 21.1% [6][6]