Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the logistics industry, focusing on domestic demand stimulation policies and the valuation recovery potential in the express delivery sector [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand recovery, particularly in the express delivery sector, which is expected to see a growth rate of 15%-20% in 2024. The report also highlights the potential for valuation recovery in the industry due to increased consumption [1][8]. - In the shipping sector, the report notes a slight decline in freight rates due to easing supply-demand tensions, while the oil shipping market is expected to show price elasticity in the fourth quarter [5][18]. - The infrastructure segment is recommended for investment, with a focus on high-quality cash flow assets and dividend capabilities, as the long-term trend of declining risk-free interest rates continues [6][7]. Summary by Sections Shipping - The report indicates that freight rates on major routes have decreased, with SCFI rates for the East and West US routes down by 2.8% and European routes down by 2.5% [4][11]. - The Middle East geopolitical situation remains complex, with ongoing negotiations expected to impact market conditions [4]. - The VLCC market has shown signs of a downturn, with daily rates dropping by 5% [18]. Infrastructure - National highway traffic volume remained stable, with a 1% increase in passenger traffic but a 2% decrease in freight traffic. High-speed road traffic saw a 3% decline [6][21]. - Railway passenger turnover increased by 5%, while freight turnover grew by 4.1% [7][21]. - Port cargo throughput grew by 3%, with container throughput increasing by 6.9% [7][21]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector saw a total of 801.6 billion packages completed in the first half of 2024, marking a 23.1% year-on-year increase. Revenue reached 653 billion yuan, up 15.1% [6][27]. - The report forecasts a continued strong performance in the express delivery sector, driven by demand in lower-tier markets and changing consumer habits [8][27]. - Recommended stocks include undervalued leaders such as Zhongtong Express and YTO Express [1][8]. Aviation - Domestic air travel has seen a rise in passenger volume, with a 1% week-on-week increase and a 6% increase compared to 2023 [32]. - The report anticipates further recovery in international routes due to relaxed visa policies [32]. - Recommended stock in the aviation sector is Spring Airlines [1][32]. Logistics - Cross-border air freight prices have slightly decreased, but remain relatively high year-on-year [9]. - The report suggests focusing on the cross-border logistics supply chain, recommending stocks like Jiayou International and China Foreign Trade [9].

东方财富（300059.SZ） 固收自营"压舱"，降本增效成果显著 总量研究/非银行金融 目标估值：13.20 元 当前股价：10.46 元 事件：东方财富发布 2024 年中报，公司实现营业总收入 49.5 亿元，同比-14%， 归母净利润 40.6 亿元，同比-4%。 ❑ 固收自营"压舱"，降本增效成果显著。2024H1 公司实现营业总收入 49.5 亿元，同比-14%，归母净利润 40.6 亿元，同比-4%。其中，东财证券营收 47.1 亿元，同比+9%，净利润 30.7 亿元，同比+11%；天天基金营收 14.2 亿元， 同比-30%，净利润 0.64 亿元，同比+23%。公司总资产规模 2631 亿元，较 2023 年末增长 10%，归母净资产 750 亿元，较 2023 年末增长 4%。年化 ROE 同比下滑 1.56 pct 至 11.04%。市场冷清、降费让利背景下，公司降本增效成 果显著，24H1 净利润率为 82%，同比+8.5 pct。 ❑ 市场冷清、费率下行，经纪业务承压，固收自营成为业绩"压舱石"。（1） 量减价跌，经纪业务承压显著。24H1 东财证券手续费及佣金净收入为 20 亿 ...

分众传媒（002027.SZ） 逆势实现超预期稳健增长，中期分红回馈股东 TMT 及中小盘/传媒 目标估值：NA 当前股价：5.78 元 公司发布 2024 年半年报，24H1 营业收入同比增长 8.17%至 59.67 亿元；归母 净利润同比增长 11.74%至 24.93 亿元；归母扣非净利润同比增长 11.43%至 21.97 亿元。拆解二季度业绩来看，公司 24Q2 实现收入 32.38 亿元，同比增长 10.1%。毛利润为 13.98 亿元，同比增长 11.1%；对应毛利率为 68.0%，同比 增长 2.2pct。归母净利润 14.53 亿元，同比增长 12.5%，对应归母净利率为 44.9%，同比增长 1.0pct。 同时，公司发布中期利润分配方案，拟派发现金红利共 14.44 亿元，占归母净 利润 57.92%。 ❑ 受日化投放增加实现逆势超预期增长，影院媒体有所恢复。楼宇媒体方面， 1H24收入同比增长7.25%至55.05亿元。毛利率同比增长0.34pct至64.31%。 影院媒体同比增长 20.75%至 4.5 亿元。分行业来看，日用消费品表现良好。 24H1 日用消费品收入同比增长 14 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" investment rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company reported a Q2 2024 revenue of $1.901 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.6%, exceeding previous guidance [2][13]. - The gross margin for Q2 2024 was 13.9%, down 6.4 percentage points year-on-year but up 0.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, also surpassing guidance [2][13]. - The company anticipates a strong demand from consumer electronics and smartphones, with expectations for Q3 2024 revenue and gross margin to grow significantly [1][18]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q2 2024 revenue was $1.901 billion, with a gross margin of 13.9% [2][13]. - The company achieved a wafer shipment of 2.11 million equivalent 8-inch wafers, a year-on-year increase of 50.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.7% [2][17]. - Capital expenditure for Q2 2024 was $2.25 billion, remaining stable quarter-on-quarter [2]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand in Q2 2024 was primarily driven by consumer electronics and smartphones, with significant growth in smartphone revenue, which reached $565 million, up 49% year-on-year and 11% quarter-on-quarter [2][17]. - The company noted a strong inventory replenishment trend among customers, particularly in the 8-inch wafer segment, which saw a recovery in utilization rates [2][16]. - The company expects Q3 2024 revenue to increase by 13-15% to between $2.15 billion and $2.19 billion, with gross margins projected to rise to 18-20% [15][18]. Market Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth in the semiconductor market, particularly in the automotive and industrial sectors, although these areas have not yet fully rebounded [18][27]. - The report highlights that the overall market demand is gradually recovering, with expectations for the second half of 2024 to exceed the first half [18][27]. - The company is focused on maintaining its competitive edge by enhancing its wafer manufacturing capabilities and addressing customer needs effectively [18][27].

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2024 年 08 月 10 日 基础数据 总股本（百万股） 240 已上市流通股（百万股） 142 总市值（十亿元） 3.8 流通市值（十亿元） 2.3 每股净资产（MRQ） 8.7 ROE（TTM） 10.9 资产负债率 40.9% 主要股东 刘国耀 主要股东持股比例 25.46% 股价表现 科远智慧（002380.SZ） 业绩持续高增，自动化业务带动公司盈利能力提升 TMT 及中小盘/计算机 当前股价：16.01 元 公司发布 2024 年中报，业绩持续高增。我们判断国内火电 DCS 自主可控需求 持续释放是公司业绩保持高增的主要原因，公司作为国内火电 DCS 领军企业， 有望分享本轮火电建设周期红利。我们预计公司 24 年全年有望保持高增趋势， 盈利能力持续提升，维持 "强烈推荐"投资评级。 ❑ 公司发布 2024 年中报，业绩持续高增。公司 24H1 实现营收 8.05 亿元，同 比增长 16.24%；归母净利润 1.10 亿元，同比增长 153.55%；扣非后净利润 1.00 亿元，同比增长 185.01%。报告期内公司经营活动产生现金流量净额 -0.29 亿元。公 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: DTW Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The DTW Timing Model is based on the similarity principle and the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) algorithm. It evaluates the similarity between current index trends and historical trends to generate timing signals[2][6][12] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Identify historical market segments with high similarity to the current market trend using the DTW distance metric, which is a flexible measure for time series data[12][14] 2. Calculate the weighted average future returns and standard deviations of the selected historical segments, where the weights are the inverse of the DTW distance[12] 3. Generate trading signals based on the average future returns and standard deviations of the historical segments[12] 4. The DTW distance is preferred over Euclidean distance as it avoids misalignment issues in time series data, making it more suitable for this application[14] - **Model Evaluation**: The DTW Timing Model demonstrates superior performance compared to traditional methods, particularly in time-series-based problems[14] 2. Model Name: Foreign Capital Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model is built using four indicators that reflect foreign capital movements to generate timing signals for the A-share market[6] - **Model Construction Process**: Details of the specific indicators and their integration into the model are referenced in a prior report titled "What Other Foreign Capital Signals Can Be Used for Timing Reference?"[6] 3. Model Name: Alligator Line Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model is based on the classic Alligator Line indicator from overseas markets to generate timing signals[6] - **Model Construction Process**: The specific methodology for constructing the Alligator Line Timing Model is detailed in a prior report titled "Index Timing and Rotation Strategy Based on Alligator Line"[6] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. DTW Timing Model - **Absolute Return**: 11.49% since November 2022[6][11] - **Excess Return Relative to CSI 300**: 23.05% since November 2022[6][11] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 20.07% since November 2022[6][11] - **Win Rate**: Over 60% in out-of-sample testing since November 2022; nearly 80% in 2023 year-to-date[6] 2. Foreign Capital Timing Model - No specific backtesting results provided in the report 3. Alligator Line Timing Model - No specific backtesting results provided in the report --- Latest Model Signals 1. DTW Timing Model - **Latest Signal**: "Short" across all major indices, including CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, SSE Composite, Wind All A, CSI All Share, ChiNext, and STAR 50[3][9] - **Predicted Returns and Variance**: - CSI 300: -0.29%, variance 0.09%[9] - SSE 50: -0.21%, variance 0.09%[9] - CSI 500: -0.0227% (below threshold), variance 0.09%[9] - CSI 1000: -0.09%, variance 0.09%[9] - CSI 2000: -0.0776% (below threshold), variance 0.09%[9] - SSE Composite: -0.18%, variance 0.08%[9] - Wind All A: -0.08%, variance 0.08%[9] - CSI All Share: -0.10%, variance 0.08%[9] - ChiNext: -0.26%, variance 0.09%[9] - STAR 50: -0.16%, variance 0.12%[9] 2. Foreign Capital Timing Model - No specific latest signals provided in the report 3. Alligator Line Timing Model - No specific latest signals provided in the report

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The acquisition of Minsheng Securities by Guolian Securities is expected to enhance the company's development and market position, with a transaction price of 29.492 billion yuan for 99.26% of Minsheng Securities [1]. - The valuation of Minsheng Securities at 29.711 billion yuan corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.87, which is considered reasonable given the current market conditions [1]. - The merger is anticipated to expand the capital scale and business opportunities, potentially placing the combined entity among the top 15 in the industry with a net asset of 47.3 billion yuan [1]. - The report highlights the complementary strengths of both companies, with Guolian Securities excelling in wealth management and derivatives, while Minsheng Securities focuses on investment banking and fixed income [1]. - The management team is viewed positively, with expectations of continued growth in net profit for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, projected at 7.79 billion, 9.27 billion, and 11.14 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 19%, and 20% [1][8]. Financial Data and Valuation - The total revenue for 2023 is projected to be 29.55 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13% [2][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is estimated at 7.79 billion yuan, representing a 16% increase compared to the previous year [2][8]. - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, indicating a steady increase in revenue and profit margins over the next three years [8][10].

Industry Overview - The domestic quantitative private equity industry has significantly increased its share in the domestic private securities investment fund market and now holds a substantial influence on the market [1] - The industry is highly concentrated, with the top quantitative private equity firms managing over 50% of the total quantitative management scale [5] - The main products in the domestic quantitative private equity market include neutral products and index enhancement products [5] Market Performance - The stock market experienced a downturn in the week ending July 26, 2024, with most sectors declining [1] - Major broad-based indices showed negative returns: Shanghai Composite Index (-3.07%), Hang Seng Index (-2.28%), CSI 300 (-3.67%), CSI 500 (-2.78%), and CSI 1000 (-2.48%) [4] Quantitative Private Equity Performance Neutral Products - Performance data for neutral products from July 28, 2023, to July 26, 2024, shows varying returns among different private equity firms, with some firms achieving positive weekly returns while others experienced losses [6][7] Index Enhancement Products CSI 500 Index Enhancement - Absolute returns for CSI 500 index enhancement products were negative across all firms, with weekly returns ranging from -1.42% to -3.55% [9][10] - Excess returns for CSI 500 index enhancement products showed mixed results, with some firms achieving positive weekly excess returns while others had negative returns [11] - The performance trend of CSI 500 index enhancement products over the past year indicates a general decline, with some firms outperforming the benchmark [13] CSI 300 Index Enhancement - Absolute returns for CSI 300 index enhancement products were also negative, with weekly returns ranging from -2.55% to -3.56% [18][19] - Excess returns for CSI 300 index enhancement products were positive for most firms, with weekly excess returns ranging from 0.11% to 1.16% [20] CSI 1000 Index Enhancement - Absolute returns for CSI 1000 index enhancement products were negative, with weekly returns ranging from -1.18% to -3.15% [25][26] - Excess returns for CSI 1000 index enhancement products were positive for most firms, with weekly excess returns ranging from -0.70% to 1.33% [27] Quantitative CTA Products - Quantitative CTA products showed mixed performance, with some firms achieving positive weekly returns (e.g., 1.81% for one firm) while others had negative returns (e.g., -0.35% for another firm) [33][34] Key Firms and Products - The report lists several top quantitative private equity firms with assets under management exceeding 10 billion yuan, including firms like Efang, Qilin, and Jiukun [5] - Performance data for specific products from these firms is provided, highlighting their returns, volatility, and Sharpe ratios [6][7][9][10][11][18][19][20][25][26][27][33][34]

Economic Growth - The initial value of the US real GDP for Q2 2024 is 2.8%, exceeding the market expectation of 2%[6] - Personal consumption expenditure contributed 1.6 percentage points to GDP growth, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.3%[2] - Government spending contributed 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth, with state and local government spending contributing 0.3 percentage points[3] Investment Trends - Non-residential fixed investment recorded a growth of 5.2%, contributing 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth, driven by investments in equipment and intellectual property products[7] - Residential investment saw a significant decline to -1.4%, detracting 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth[7] - Inventory investment contributed 0.8 percentage points to GDP growth, reversing a previous drag of -0.4 percentage points[7] Trade and Exports - Net exports detracted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth, consistent with previous quarters[8] - The trade deficit in May reached $75 billion, with a goods trade deficit of $100.15 billion[8] - The service trade surplus was $25.1 billion, indicating ongoing trade imbalances[8] Market Expectations - Following the GDP release, the market anticipates a high probability of interest rate cuts in September, with the 2-year Treasury yield around 4.40% and the 10-year yield at approximately 4.22%[5] - The US dollar index briefly strengthened to 104.4 before retreating, while the Dow Jones and Russell 2000 indices rebounded amid unchanged rate cut expectations[5]

这个格点欢要 精一一新投资时代（ 四 ) 未桌 3-5 年，她大爷分精全为了麦高的生产效争取力于实现满负将生产，行业 条中度伪有装升空间，但过程举办化，具备成本优势的企业是快突现满产。长 病单成击，失气精全与二战精全牵不具备神统扩张的基础，大规模产能扩张叶 代不弄，前被食时代关注优质本+，铃生出两条主线：优质本+分红、优质本+ 内生增长。袁佩建议在低成本的肯模下，寻找有点长检的二集精全。 □ 什业尤争格局历史问题：过去 10 牛条干皮种姓姓外，2020 牛杂选条中，过去 10 辛，受益于上市辖企经委渠道杨通、土地政策官口打手、越高盈利利润猪企大幅 扩张，行业集中度向头爷企业快递集中。18 辛豬盘后，行业上ま持大规模扩展， 行业集中度在 20 年后乔始杰達殺升。不同規模希班主体上看，当前出程查 500 头汉下的小规模养殖场贫을份最多，但增逢逢度缓慢，行业规模化进程明显示途。 □ 未未格馬馬堂: 长弗視角下大規模扩张时代不弄, 位条中度份編號表外. 未未 3-5 辛给戊杯，绝大多数猪企为了更高的生产效率将致力于实现满产，北阶段下共新 企业因为具备更高的扩产空间，因此集中度仍将继续提升。但满产过程表现点分 化，具备 ...