Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6][15][19]. Core Insights - The company is a well-known operator of Chinese casual dining restaurants, focusing on cost-effectiveness and high-quality dining experiences. As of May 2025, it operates 493 stores across Hong Kong and various cities in mainland China [4][12][17]. - The company’s mature stores maintain healthy operations, with projected sales for 2024 expected to exceed 10 million yuan per store. The increase in takeaway orders is anticipated to help same-store sales recover [4][12][17]. - The company has recently experimented with smaller restaurant formats, which have higher table turnover rates and lower operating costs, leading to a reduced payback period of 14-15 months for new stores. With effective incentive mechanisms in place, the company is expected to accelerate its store expansion [4][12][17]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company started from Hangzhou West Lake and has expanded nationwide, opening its first restaurant in 2008. By May 2025, it has established a network of 493 restaurants across various city tiers in China [23]. - The main business model is direct-operated restaurants with a focus on fusion cuisine priced between 50-70 yuan, achieving a competitive edge through high cost-performance [25][26]. Industry Analysis - The Chinese restaurant market is projected to reach 5.6 trillion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.6% from 2019 to 2024. The casual dining segment is the fastest-growing within the Chinese restaurant market, with a CAGR of 5.6% [49][53]. - The chain restaurant penetration rate in China has increased to 23.3% in 2024, up 4.2 percentage points from 2019, indicating a gradual shift towards more standardized and scalable restaurant operations [55]. Competitive Advantages - The company boasts strong menu development capabilities, with its founder leading product innovation. The average annual sales for mature stores remain above 10 million yuan, and the investment payback period for new stores has decreased due to smaller, more efficient formats [14][19]. - The company has implemented a profit-sharing mechanism to align employee interests with operational quality and expansion goals, enhancing its competitive position [14][19]. Growth Outlook - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 46.8 billion yuan in 2025, 59.0 billion yuan in 2026, and 75.0 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 22.0%, 25.9%, and 27.3% respectively [15][19]. - The company plans to open 131, 176, and 183 new stores in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, supported by a favorable market environment and improved operational efficiencies [18][19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][17]. Core Views - The report indicates that China Tobacco Hong Kong has reached a consensus with the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration to maintain its exclusive operation of duty-free cigarette exports within China, suggesting limited impact from recent policy changes [2][10]. - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth, with total revenue projected to increase from HKD 11.836 billion in 2023 to HKD 16.690 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.4% [4][11]. - Net profit is forecasted to grow from HKD 599 million in 2023 to HKD 1.208 billion in 2027, with a notable increase of 59.7% in 2023 and a steady growth trajectory thereafter [4][11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the years 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: HKD 11,836 million - 2024: HKD 13,074 million (+10.5%) - 2025: HKD 14,378 million (+10.0%) - 2026: HKD 15,545 million (+8.1%) - 2027: HKD 16,690 million (+7.4%) [4]. - Net profit projections are: - 2023: HKD 599 million - 2024: HKD 854 million (+42.6%) - 2025: HKD 969 million (+13.5%) - 2026: HKD 1,092 million (+12.7%) - 2027: HKD 1,208 million (+10.6%) [4]. - The report maintains EPS forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at HKD 1.40, HKD 1.58, and HKD 1.75 respectively [10]. Market Data - The current stock price is HKD 32.65, with a market capitalization of HKD 22,583 million and a total share count of 692 million [6][7]. - The stock has traded within a 52-week range of HKD 13.82 to HKD 37.30 [7].

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 报 告 报告原因：首次覆盖 买入（首次评级） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 07 月 25 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 6.09 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9150.49 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 6.48/4.06 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 21,705.14 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 86,794.04 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0991 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -5% 45% 95% HSCEI 工商银行 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 郑庆明 A0230519090001 zhengqm@swsresearch.com 林颖颖 A0230522070004 linyy@swsresearch.com 冯思远 A0230522090005 fengsy@swsresearch.com 李禹昊 A0230525070004 liyh2@swsresearch.com 联系人 李禹昊 (8621)23297818× liyh2@swsresearch.com ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6][5]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading domestic wafer foundry in China, with a focus on both advanced process technology and mature process expansion [5]. - The company has achieved a significant revenue milestone, with quarterly revenues exceeding $2 billion for three consecutive quarters, indicating a positive trend in fundamentals [5][12]. - The company is expected to benefit from the localization of manufacturing and the increasing demand for advanced chips due to geopolitical factors [5]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at $9.451 billion, $10.860 billion, and $11.998 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 18%, 15%, and 10% [25][32]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are $743 million, $948 million, and $1.069 billion, reflecting growth rates of 51%, 28%, and 13% [25][32]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve slightly, reaching 19.5%, 20%, and 20.5% from 2025 to 2027 [25]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is a core beneficiary of high-end chip orders as domestic IC design firms increasingly collaborate with local foundries [5]. - The advanced process capacity in mainland China is currently low, with only 1.7% of capacity at 14nm and below, indicating a strategic opportunity for the company [5][18]. - The company is expected to maintain a competitive edge due to its ability to produce advanced nodes, which are critical for AI infrastructure [5][18]. Valuation and Target Price - The report assigns a target price of HKD 63.3 per share based on a 3x price-to-book (PB) valuation for 2025, reflecting the company's leading position in advanced process foundry services in mainland China [6][27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][11] Core Views - The company has entered into a licensing agreement with Pfizer for the PD-1/VEGF dual antibody, which is expected to enhance its market position and revenue potential [2][6] - The peak sales forecast for the product has been raised to RMB 6.6 billion (approximately USD 900 million) due to the collaboration with Pfizer [6] - The target price for the company's stock has been increased to HKD 33.00, reflecting a potential upside of 16% from the current price [2][6] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 have been increased by 6% to RMB 20,316 million, with further growth expected in subsequent years [5][12] - Gross profit for 2025 is projected at RMB 18,812 million, with a gross margin of 92.6% [5][12] - Net profit for 2025 is forecasted to be RMB 9,372 million, representing a 9% increase from previous estimates [5][12] Market Position - The company is transitioning from reliance on traditional blockbuster products to a strategy focused on new product iterations and international expansion, indicating a significant growth opportunity [6][7] - The stock has shown a remarkable year-to-date increase of 367.93%, highlighting strong market performance [4]

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating to "Accumulate" from "Buy" due to short-term performance pressure [3][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a net profit decline of 20% to 30% in the first half of 2025 compared to 2024, primarily due to increased marketing investments and product adjustments aimed at long-term growth [1]. - Despite short-term challenges, the company maintains a strong position in the pure water industry and is focusing on expanding its market presence in the restaurant and household segments [2]. - The company is actively working on enhancing its product portfolio, particularly in the beverage sector, with a focus on high-potential products [2]. - The net profit margin is expected to improve due to a higher proportion of self-produced products and reduced outsourcing costs, alongside cost benefits from raw materials [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2025, the company anticipates a revenue of 12,778 million RMB, a decrease of 5.5% year-on-year, with net profit expected to be 1,299 million RMB, reflecting a decline of 20.6% [5][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 0.54 RMB, down from 0.68 RMB in 2024 [5][10]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on channel refinement and market expansion, particularly in the food and beverage sectors, to drive growth [2][3]. - The introduction of new products under the "Ben You" series is aimed at capturing market share in the natural and mineral water segments [2]. Shareholder Returns - The board is committed to providing sustainable returns to shareholders, with plans to declare interim dividends based on a solid financial position and retained earnings [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5][6]. Core Insights - The company, IFBH, is positioned in the rapidly growing coconut water market, focusing on health-conscious consumers and leveraging its Thai origins to expand in Greater China and beyond [2][4]. - The coconut water beverage industry is experiencing robust growth, particularly in Greater China, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 60.8% from 2019 to 2024, and an expected CAGR of 19.4% from 2024 to 2029 [2][68]. - IFBH has maintained a leading market share in both mainland China and Hong Kong, with a 34% share in mainland China and 60% in Hong Kong as of 2024, significantly outpacing competitors [3][17]. Company Overview - IFBH was founded in Thailand in 2013 and has successfully introduced its brands, if and Innococo, to various Asian markets, with a strong focus on mainland China [2][14]. - The company operates under a light-asset model, outsourcing production to third-party manufacturers while concentrating on brand management and marketing [4][99]. - The revenue structure shows that the if brand contributes the majority of sales, while the Innococo brand is gradually increasing its share [36][58]. Industry Analysis - The global coconut water market is projected to grow from $2.5 billion in 2019 to $5 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 14.7% [67][68]. - In China, the coconut water market is expected to reach $1.09 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 19.4% anticipated through 2029 [68][86]. - The company benefits from a stable supply chain and lower raw material costs, with coconut water production costs being 18% lower than competitors [4][96]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of $212.07 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 34.52% [6][8]. - Net profit for 2024 was $33.32 million, reflecting a significant increase of 98.90% compared to the previous year [52][58]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 36.7%, with the if brand at 36.6% and the Innococo brand at 37.4% [58][59].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance with expected price increases of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][20]. Core Insights - The chairman of the company, Li Ning, has significantly increased his stake, acquiring approximately 51.79 million shares for about 809 million HKD, raising his ownership from 10.57% to 13.08%, marking the largest increase since 2006, reflecting strong confidence in the company's future [2][14]. - The partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee (COC) for the 2025-2028 period is expected to enhance the company's core product lines, providing professional equipment for major international events, which is anticipated to drive significant growth in key categories such as basketball and running [2][15]. - The company is optimizing its channel strategy by closing underperforming stores, resulting in a net reduction of 18 stores in the past year, which has improved overall store efficiency [3]. - A multi-faceted brand marketing strategy has been implemented, including collaborations with cultural institutions and sponsorship of major events, aimed at enhancing brand strength [3][16]. - The company is expected to increase its expenditure in 2025, which may pressure short-term profit margins but is projected to yield positive results in the medium to long term [3][16]. Financial Projections - The company is forecasted to achieve net profits of 2.43 billion, 2.83 billion, and 3.13 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15, 13, and 12 times [4][20]. - Revenue is projected to grow from 27.6 billion RMB in 2023 to 33.9 billion RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.68% [9][20].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating, setting a target price of HK$13.50 based on a current price of HK$9.83 [1]. Core Insights - Xiaocaiyuan International is positioned as a leader in the mass Chinese cuisine market, with a market share of 0.2% as of 2023, and aims to expand its store count significantly in the coming years [1][6]. - The mass Chinese cuisine market is projected to grow from RMB 3.6 trillion in 2023 to RMB 5.6 trillion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.1%, outpacing the overall Chinese cuisine market growth of 8.7% during the same period [2][24]. - Xiaocaiyuan's revenue is expected to increase from RMB 5.21 billion in 2024 to RMB 9.43 billion by 2027, with net profit projected to rise from RMB 581 million to RMB 1.1 billion in the same timeframe [4][15]. Company Overview - Xiaocaiyuan was established in 2013 and has rapidly developed into a leading brand in the mass Chinese cuisine sector, with 673 stores across 14 provinces in China by the end of 2024 [1][6]. - The company focuses on a dual-driven model of "home-style flavor + high cost-performance," catering to diverse regional tastes with a seasonal menu of approximately 45-50 dishes [3][38]. - The company employs a standardized direct operation model, enhancing efficiency and quality control through a comprehensive supply chain system [3][48]. Financial Performance - Xiaocaiyuan's revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 5.21 billion, reflecting a 14.5% year-on-year growth, with net profit expected to reach RMB 581 million, a 7% increase [4][15]. - The company has shown strong growth in its takeaway business, with revenue from this segment expected to grow by 34.4% year-on-year in 2024 [3][15]. - The operating cash flow is robust, with RMB 9.0 billion expected in 2024, indicating a healthy cash flow situation to support further expansion [22]. Market Dynamics - The mass Chinese cuisine market is benefiting from urbanization, changing family structures, and increasing demand for affordable dining options [2][29]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in lower-tier cities, where consumer demand for quality dining experiences is rising [29][33]. - The competitive landscape is fragmented, with Xiaocaiyuan holding the top position in the mass Chinese dining segment, which is characterized by low market concentration [45].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the release of the draft management measures for domestic duty-free tobacco products, indicating a regulatory shift aimed at improving market order and protecting tax revenues [8] - The company is positioned as the only listed entity under China Tobacco International, focusing on the import and export of tobacco products, with a significant portion of revenue expected from the domestic duty-free market [8] - The report anticipates a steady growth in revenue and profit, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 being HKD 870.39 million, HKD 1,011.77 million, and HKD 1,125.43 million respectively [1][8] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections (in million HKD) are as follows: 2023A: 11,836, 2024A: 13,074, 2025E: 13,432, 2026E: 14,656, 2027E: 15,718, with year-on-year growth rates of 42.19%, 10.46%, 2.74%, 9.11%, and 7.25% respectively [1] - The diluted EPS forecasts are: 2023A: 0.87, 2024A: 1.23, 2025E: 1.26, 2026E: 1.46, 2027E: 1.63, with corresponding P/E ratios of 37.72, 26.45, 25.95, 22.32, and 20.07 [1] - The company’s gross profit margin is projected to improve gradually, reaching 11.00% by 2027 [9] Market Context - The report discusses the regulatory environment affecting the duty-free tobacco market, emphasizing the need for compliance with new management measures to enhance operational integrity [8] - The company is expected to benefit from the consolidation of resources within the international tobacco supply chain, which may lead to increased market share and profitability [8]