2025 年 10 月 15 日 极兔速递-W (01519) 上 市 公 司 交通运输 ——东南亚维持高景气，新市场打开新增长曲线 报告原因：有信息公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 投资要点： | | --- | 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万美元） | 8849 | 10259 | 12719 | 16015 | 20449 | | 同比增长率（%） | 21.77% | 15.93% | 23.97% | 25.92% | 27.69% | | 调整后净利润（百万美元） | -432 | 200 | 368 | 592 | 853 | | 同比增长率（%） | - | - | 83.91% | 60.77% | 43.94% | | 每股收益（美元/股） | -0.05 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.09 | | 净资产收益率（%） | -15.72% | 7.09% | 11.67% | 15.93% | 18.66% ...

首次覆盖：可降解封堵器内资龙头，瓣膜高速增长 心泰医疗(2291) 现有管线护城河深，第二增长曲线放量在即 [Table_Industry] 医药 本报告导读： 公司是国内先天性心脏病介入医疗器械领导者，传统业务依托生物可降解技术，利 润稳步提升，并开辟心脏瓣膜产品为第二增长曲线。我们认为该两块业务将对公司 未来 1-5 年有较大利润增厚。 投资要点： 资料来源：Wind，HTI 股 票 研 究 海 外 公 司 ( 中 国 香 港 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ) 股票研究 / [Table_Date] 2025.10.14 | 财务摘要(百万人民币) | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 472 | 728 | 959 | 1231 | | (+/-)% | 45% | 54% | 32% | 28% | | 毛利润 | 424 | 633 | 825 | 1046 | | 净利润 | 246 | 310 | 400 | 503 | | (+/-)% | 62% | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Group is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1][4][10] Core Views - JD Group is expected to report a strong revenue performance for Q3 2025, with an estimated revenue of CNY 293.9 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 13%. This growth is primarily driven by government subsidies boosting retail revenue growth [3][5] - The Non-GAAP net profit margin is projected to decline by 4 percentage points year-on-year to 1.4% for Q3 2025, influenced by ongoing losses in the new food delivery business, although there are signs of improvement in user experience (UE) [3][6] - The company is adjusting its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to CNY 1,334.8 billion, CNY 1,419.7 billion, and CNY 1,488.2 billion respectively, with a slight increase in net profit forecasts for the same period [4][10] Revenue Performance - Q3 2025 revenue is expected to be CNY 293.9 billion, up 13% year-on-year, with JD Retail revenue growth anticipated at 11%. The growth in the electronics category is expected to be in the high single digits, while daily necessities are projected to grow in double digits [3][5] - The food delivery business is expected to see a significant revenue increase of 230% in Q3 2025, benefiting from seasonal demand [3][5] Operational Insights - The estimated GMV growth for JD in Q3 2025 is around 15%, with market share continuing to recover, largely driven by the "old-for-new" subsidy program in the electronics category [3][5] - Active purchasing users and purchase frequency in e-commerce are showing strong growth, with 40% of new food delivery users converting to main site users by July [3][5] Profitability Analysis - The Non-GAAP net profit margin is expected to be 1.4% for Q3 2025, down 3.6 percentage points year-on-year. However, JD Retail's operating profit margin is projected to improve by 0.3 percentage points due to enhanced supply chain efficiency and increased commission and advertising revenue [6][10] - The losses from the new food delivery business are impacting overall profitability, but improvements in delivery efficiency and targeted subsidies are helping to reduce these losses [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][4][9] Core Views - The company reported a retail performance for Q3 2025 with approximately 10% growth in both the main brand's offline retail and children's clothing, and around 20% growth in e-commerce [3][4] - The company continues to innovate products to meet diverse consumer needs and has expanded its super stores to 93 locations, maintaining stable inventory levels and slightly increasing discounts [4][6][9] - The company is expected to maintain its profit forecasts, with projected net profits of 1.25 billion, 1.35 billion, and 1.48 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of 8.5%, 8.7%, and 9.4% respectively [4][10][11] Summary by Sections Retail Performance - In Q3 2025, the adult apparel offline sales grew by approximately 10%, children's apparel also grew by about 10%, and e-commerce sales increased by around 20%, with growth rates remaining stable compared to previous quarters [4][5][6] Product Innovation - The company has launched new products across various categories, including running shoes with enhanced waterproof technology, basketball shoes with advanced design features, and children's shoes tailored for young athletes [6][7] Channel Expansion - The company has expanded its super stores to 93, with 44 new stores opened in Q3. These stores offer a comprehensive range of products and a one-stop shopping experience [6][7] Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenue growth of 21% in 2023, 19.6% in 2024, and 11% in 2025, with net profit growth of 28.7% in 2023 and 19.5% in 2024 [10][14]

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 五菱汽车（00305） 证券研究报告 业绩稳健增长，新能源及智能化布局开启新篇章 截至2025年6月30日止中报，公司实现营业收入40.3亿元，同比+2.0%； 盈利能力显著增强，净利润达到 8580.9 万元，同比+306.2%；归母净利 润为 3941.6 万元，同比+2385.2%。我们认为，公司整体业绩表现亮眼， 盈利能力的提升主要得益于产品结构优化、成本管控成效以及研发投 入的增加，未来伴随产品结构的继续优化，公司有望实现业绩的进一 步提升。 分部业务表现：核心业务稳固，动力系统扭亏，商用车创新驱动。 汽车零部件及其他工业服务作为公司核心收入来源，实现收入 28.4 亿 元，同比+5.2%。该业务稳步开拓市场，上半年累计获得 46 个客户的 125 个项目定点。在稳固上汽通用五菱、长城汽车等存量客户的同时， 成功开拓了上汽乘用车、郑州宇通等新客户。 汽车动力系统业务实现重大突破，经调整 EBIT 扭亏为盈，实现 661 万 元。主要系公司改善产品结构，铸造件等高附加值产品收入实现快速增 长。 盈利能力与费用控制：毛利率提升，费用结构优化。 2025 年上半年，公司毛利率提 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Aux Electric with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 17.67, based on an 8x PE for 2025 [5][4]. Core Insights - Aux Electric is the fifth largest air conditioning provider globally and the fourth largest in China, with a market share of 7.1% globally and 7.3% in China for 2024 [1][18]. - The company has a robust presence in over 150 countries, focusing on both domestic and international markets through a dual strategy of ODM and OBM [1][18]. - The report highlights Aux's historical adaptability and strategic positioning, capturing market opportunities across different eras, from cost-effective products in the early 2000s to leveraging e-commerce in the 2010s and expanding globally in the 2020s [1][21]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Aux Electric entered the air conditioning industry in 1994 and has since developed a multi-brand strategy, including the main brand Aux and sub-brands like ShinFlow, HuaSuan, and Aufit, to cater to various market segments [23][1]. - The company has maintained a strong growth trajectory, with a projected revenue of RMB 29.8 billion in 2024 and a CAGR of 30% in air conditioning sales from 2023 to 2024 [23][18]. Market Outlook - The global air conditioning market is expected to grow from RMB 1.31 trillion in 2024 to RMB 1.53 trillion in 2028, with a CAGR of 4.0% [2]. - Aux is actively expanding in emerging markets, particularly in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, with significant contributions from both ODM and OBM business models [2][18]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts Aux's net profit attributable to shareholders to be RMB 3.167 billion, RMB 3.661 billion, and RMB 4.073 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.99, RMB 2.31, and RMB 2.56 [4][12]. - Revenue from overseas sales is expected to reach RMB 188.9 billion, RMB 234.6 billion, and RMB 281.8 billion from 2025 to 2027, accounting for 54.3%, 58.5%, and 62.6% of total revenue [2][4]. Competitive Positioning - Aux Electric's manufacturing efficiency is highlighted, with a capacity utilization rate of 91.3% compared to the industry average of 74.4% in 2024, which enhances its bargaining power [3][22]. - The company has diversified its customer base, reducing dependency on any single client, with the largest customer accounting for only 6.3% of revenue in Q1 2025 [22][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong sales performance, achieving a signed sales amount of 98.0 billion yuan in September 2025, with a total of 806.9 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27.3% [1][3] - The brand value of the company has been a significant driver of its development, with a brand value of 742 billion yuan in 2025, marking an increase of nearly 8 billion yuan from the previous year [2] - The company has seen a notable decrease in expense ratios, with management and sales expense ratios dropping to 4.8% and 3.3% respectively for the first half of 2025, indicating improved operational efficiency [4] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The company reported monthly signed sales amounts of 84.6 billion yuan, 90.8 billion yuan, and 98.0 billion yuan for July, August, and September 2025 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 49.5%, 46.5%, and 39.9% [3] - For the third quarter of 2025, the signed sales amount reached 273.4 billion yuan, up from 188.6 billion yuan in the same period of 2024, with a signed sales area of 128.1 million square meters [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for the company has been revised upwards for 2025-2027, with expected net profits of 1.25 billion yuan, 1.43 billion yuan, and 1.58 billion yuan respectively [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 13.7, 12.0, and 10.8 for the years 2025-2027 [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown rapid revenue growth, with a 21.8% year-on-year increase in total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, amounting to 10.21 billion yuan [8] - The HNB (Heated Not Burned) products are gradually being promoted, with positive feedback from customers and plans for expansion into new markets [8] - The company is expected to benefit from stricter regulations in the electronic vaporization market, leading to a recovery in its business [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 11,168 million yuan, 11,799 million yuan, 13,722 million yuan, 16,166 million yuan, and 18,395 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -8.04%, 5.64%, 16.30%, 17.81%, and 13.79% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same years is projected to be 1,645 million yuan, 1,303 million yuan, 1,331 million yuan, 2,219 million yuan, and 2,893 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -34.47%, -20.78%, 2.11%, 66.75%, and 30.37% [1] - The latest diluted EPS (Earnings Per Share) is forecasted to be 0.27 yuan, 0.21 yuan, 0.21 yuan, 0.36 yuan, and 0.47 yuan for the years 2023A to 2027E [1] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 15.77 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 89.18 billion HKD [5] - The price-to-book ratio is 3.97 [5] - The company has a total share capital of 6,193.04 million shares [6]

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 我们认为，公司作为提供雾化科技解决方案的全球领导者，壁垒优势不断 凸显，在监管不断趋严的背景下，预计产业链集中度或将加速提升。HNB 业务作为第二增长曲线预计 2026 年起对收入和利润有显著贡献，由于公司加 大自有品牌市场开拓力度，销售费用显著增长，我们调整公司2025-2027 年经 调整净利润为 13.92/20.23/27.59 亿元（前值为 14.72/19.79/26.63 亿元），26/27 年同比+45.33%/36.39%。基于公司的技术和龙头优势，维持"买入"评级。 思摩尔国际（06969） 证券研究报告 25Q3 收入创单季历史新高，HNB 业务出货量大幅增加 事件：公司发布 2025Q3 财务更新，经初步审核，25Q1-Q3 公司实现营收 102.10 亿元，同比增加 21.8%，实现净利润 8.09 亿元，同比下降 23.8%， 加回以股份为基础的非现金开支后，实现经调整净利 11.82 亿元，同比增加 0.1%；25Q3 实现营收 41.97 亿元，环比增加 27.5%，同比增加 27.2%，实 现净利润 3.17 亿元，环比增加 5.7%，同比下降 1 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Smoore International (6969.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook based on revenue growth and market opportunities [1]. Core Insights - Smoore International reported a record high revenue of 10.21 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.8%. The total comprehensive income for the period was 785 million yuan, down 25.5% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue reached 4.196 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 27.5% and a year-on-year increase of 27.2% [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from stringent global regulations, particularly in the vaping sector, with steady growth anticipated in the U.S. and high growth in Europe due to the introduction of compliant products [2]. - The HNB (Heated Not Burned) segment is gradually contributing to revenue growth, with expectations for increased shipments and market expansion in key regions like Poland and Italy [2]. - The adjusted net profit margin for Q3 2025 was approximately 10.6%, down from 13.0% in Q3 2024, primarily due to changes in product mix affecting gross margins. However, the company is optimizing its expense ratios, which are expected to decline as HNB product sales increase [3]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal years 2024 to 2027, the projected total revenue is as follows: - 2024: 11.799 billion yuan - 2025: 14.610 billion yuan - 2026: 17.669 billion yuan - 2027: 21.253 billion yuan - The expected growth rates year-on-year are 6% for 2024, 24% for 2025, 21% for 2026, and 20% for 2027 [4]. - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company is: - 2024: 1.303 billion yuan - 2025: 1.088 billion yuan - 2026: 2.040 billion yuan - 2027: 3.050 billion yuan - The corresponding P/E ratios are projected to be 57.75X for 2024, 83.46X for 2025, 44.52X for 2026, and 29.78X for 2027 [4][6].