Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics with a target price of HK$23.28 [3][9]. Core Views - JD Logistics is expected to benefit from the Chinese government's subsidy policies, leading to accelerated revenue growth in Q2 2025 [1][9]. - The expansion of the workforce to support new business initiatives may pressure short-term profit margins, with a forecasted decline in gross margin from 11.9% in Q2 2024 to 10.9% in Q2 2025 [2][9]. - The completion of the acquisition of Kuayue Express is anticipated to significantly reduce minority interests, potentially increasing the net profit attributable to shareholders by approximately 15% for the full year 2025 [2]. Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - Q2 2025 revenue is expected to grow faster year-on-year, driven by increased consumer demand for home appliances and electronics due to government incentives [1]. - Revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at RMB 205.51 billion, reflecting a 12.4% increase from 2024 [10]. Profitability - Gross margin is projected to decline to 10.9% in Q2 2025, influenced by rising labor costs from workforce expansion [2]. - Non-IFRS net profit margin is expected to decrease to 5.0% in Q2 2025, down from 5.6% in Q2 2024 [2]. Valuation - The current trading P/E ratio is 10.6 times the expected earnings for 2025, which is considered attractive compared to domestic peers [3]. - The target price of HK$23.28 suggests a potential upside of 77% from the current price of HK$13.16 [4][9]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts a steady increase in earnings per share (EPS), with estimates of RMB 1.18 for 2025, RMB 1.32 for 2026, and RMB 1.56 for 2027 [4][10]. - The expected revenue growth rates for 2025 and 2026 are 12.4% and 9.0%, respectively [10].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for China Civil Aviation Information Network (0696.HK) [10] Core Insights - China Civil Aviation Information Network (China Aviation Information) is the only GDS system in China, dominating the airline ticket booking segment. The company has a strong and stable profitability with ROE and ROIC consistently around 15%. The current PE valuation is only 11-12 times, about half of its historical average, which supports a positive recommendation [2][6] - The company has a robust cash flow with limited capital expenditure, maintaining over 10 billion in cash and equivalents, while normal annual capital expenditure is less than 500 million. The dividend payout ratio has been adjusted to 35%-45% from 30%-40%, indicating potential for increased returns to shareholders [6][49] Company Overview - China Aviation Information originated from the Civil Aviation Administration's computer center and became an independent company in 1996. It was established as a joint venture with all domestic airlines in 2000 and listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2001. The company is controlled by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [5][17] - The company has evolved its products and services over decades, expanding its client base from airlines to the entire aviation industry chain, becoming the leading supplier of information technology solutions in China's aviation tourism sector [5][27] Business Model - The company operates a light asset and low leverage model, with a stable net profit margin around 30%. Following the pandemic, profitability has been recovering, with a projected net profit margin of 24% in 2024 [6][52] - China Aviation Information's booking scale is the largest globally, with over 95% market share in domestic civil aviation passenger transport and approximately 80% in cross-border passenger transport. The pricing for bookings is lower than that of overseas GDS systems, contributing to a sustainable business model [7][30] Financial Performance - The company has shown steady revenue and profit growth, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10.8% in revenue and 11.4% in net profit from 2011 to 2019. Despite the impact of the pandemic, revenue is expected to grow by 9.8% compared to 2019 levels by 2024 [39][40] - The average PE and PB ratios are 22 times and 2.3 times, respectively, reflecting the market's valuation of the company's stable and efficient business model [50][52] Future Prospects - The company is exploring auxiliary business opportunities through subsidiaries, focusing on travel finance and technology services, which have significant growth potential. The integration of AI technology may further transform the ticket agency business [8][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7] Core Insights - The cumulative shipment of the company's "Zhengcheng" series is expected to exceed 10 million units, with over 8 million units already shipped. The company has established close partnerships with leading Tier-1 companies such as Bosch, Denso, and ZF, supporting advanced driver assistance and high-level autonomous driving solutions [5] - The HSD system, the first full-stack development of its kind in China, is designed for urban driving assistance and is expected to be integrated into strategic models of several leading OEM brands this year [6] Financial Performance and Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 35.62 billion, 55.29 billion, and 79.83 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits expected to be -1.969 billion, -0.945 billion, and 0.105 billion yuan for the same years [7][9] - The revenue growth rates are forecasted at 54%, 49%, and 55% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, while the net profit growth rates are expected to be 135%, -184%, and 52% [9][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to report a revenue growth of 2% year-on-year for Q1 FY26, with an adjusted EBITA margin of 16%. The revenue growth is primarily impacted by the divestiture of certain retail operations [4][6]. - The company is increasing its investment in instant retail, which is expected to pressure profits in the short term but may enhance user engagement and purchase frequency in the long term [5][23]. - Revenue forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 have been slightly adjusted upwards, while net profit forecasts have been adjusted downwards due to increased investment in flash sales [5][23]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1 FY26, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of CNY 247.8 billion, reflecting a 2% year-on-year increase. The revenue growth rates for various segments are as follows: Taobao +9%, International Digital Commerce +19%, Cloud Intelligence +22%, Local Services +10%, Cainiao -5%, and Digital Entertainment +5% [4][6]. - The adjusted EBITA for Q1 FY26 is expected to be CNY 39.2 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 13% [6]. Segment Analysis - **Taobao Group**: Projected GMV growth of 6% year-on-year for Q1 FY26, with a CMR increase of 11% driven by site-wide promotions and a 0.6% contribution from service fees. The EBITA for Taobao and Local Services combined is expected to decline by 16% to CNY 40.8 billion due to increased promotional spending [11]. - **Cloud Intelligence**: Anticipated revenue growth of 22% year-on-year for Q1 FY26, driven by rising AI demand. The company continues to advance its AI initiatives, including the launch of the Qwen3 model [15][16]. - **AIDC**: Expected revenue growth of 19% year-on-year, with a slight decline in adjusted EBITA margin due to strategic decisions to enhance profitability [22]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 are adjusted to CNY 1,062.3 billion, CNY 1,149.0 billion, and CNY 1,217.4 billion respectively, reflecting increases of 1.0%, 2.2%, and 0.8% [5][23]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are revised to CNY 138.8 billion, CNY 171.8 billion, and CNY 195.4 billion, with adjustments of -16.8%, -5.7%, and -2.9% respectively [5][23].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - Recent trial feedback for Glo Hilo in Sendai, Japan has been positive, indicating that improvements in HNB product experience and faster conversion of smokers will drive industry growth, benefiting the company through its partnership with British American Tobacco [2] - The price increase of Glo Hilo's cartridges reflects confidence in product strength, with the new cartridge priced at 580 JPY (approximately 4 USD), a more than 30% increase from the previous model [3] - British American Tobacco is expected to invest significantly in Hilo, aiming for new tobacco revenue to reach 50% by 2035, up from the current 13%, highlighting the importance of HNB products for the company's future [4] Summary by Sections Recent Catalysts and Core Viewpoints - Glo Hilo's trial in Japan has shown promising results, suggesting a potential acceleration in industry growth due to enhanced product experiences [2] - The price increase of Hilo cartridges indicates strong product confidence and potential for higher returns for the company [3] - British American Tobacco's commitment to HNB products is expected to increase, with significant resources allocated to Hilo [4] Market Dynamics - The HNB market is evolving, with improved product experiences leading to higher conversion rates among traditional smokers [8] - The competitive landscape is shifting, with major players like Philip Morris, Japan Tobacco, and British American Tobacco sharing market shares more evenly [9] Regulatory Environment and Business Potential - The company is poised to benefit from stricter regulations on vaping products in Europe and North America, which may lead to increased demand for compliant products [10] - The medical business segment is expected to gain importance, with significant investments in research and development for HNB and medical aerosol products [11] Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 128.9 billion, 153.1 billion, and 183.5 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 9%, 19%, and 20% respectively [12] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 13.2 billion, 20.0 billion, and 27.3 billion for the same period, with corresponding growth rates of 2%, 51%, and 36% [12]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state the investment rating for Tiande Chemical Core Insights - Tiande Chemical is a major global producer of sodium cyanide and its derivatives, founded in 1993 and listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2006. The company focuses on research, development, manufacturing, and sales of fine chemical products, with a production base in Weifang Binhai Economic and Technological Development Zone [2][4] - In 2024, the group's gross profit significantly dropped to approximately RMB 228 million, a year-on-year decrease of around 48.2%, primarily due to a more substantial decline in product prices compared to production costs. The gross profit margin fell to 12.1%, down 9.0 percentage points year-on-year, while revenue decreased to approximately RMB 1.874 billion, a decline of about 9.9% [3][5] - The group has implemented various measures to reduce costs and improve efficiency, including enhancing raw material self-sufficiency, optimizing procurement strategies, improving production processes, and expanding automated production [3][5] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Tiande Chemical is one of the leading producers of sodium cyanide and its derivatives in China and globally, with a focus on fine chemical products. The company has a large production facility with advanced automated production lines and R&D laboratories [2][4] Financial Performance - The group's performance faced pressure in 2024, with a significant drop in gross profit and revenue. The overall selling price of products decreased, leading to a decline in gross profit margin and revenue [3][5] Cost Management - The group has taken steps to manage costs effectively, including the commercial production of raw material production lines, optimization of procurement strategies, and enhancement of production efficiency through automation [3][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Jinxin Fertility [1][2]. Core Views - The demand for assisted reproductive technology (ART) in China is expected to reach a turning point, driven by delayed childbearing and the gradual release of policy benefits. The average childbearing age in China is approaching 30, leading to an increase in the proportion of older mothers and a significant rise in demand for ART [3][29]. - The company's overseas business is experiencing strong growth, particularly in the U.S., where the number of egg retrieval cycles is projected to increase by 18.2% year-on-year in 2024. New policies in California are expected to further boost demand for ART services [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Future Trends in China's Assisted Reproductive Demand - The number of newborns in China is expected to stabilize in 2024, with a continuous increase in the proportion of births from older mothers. The average childbearing age has risen to 29.0 years, with a significant demand for ART from older women [14][16]. - The penetration rate of ART in China is anticipated to accelerate as the average childbearing age surpasses 30, similar to trends observed in other developed countries [19][20]. - Payment policies are identified as a core factor influencing ART penetration rates, with significant room for improvement in China's healthcare insurance and subsidy policies [25][26]. 2. Revenue and Profit Outlook for Domestic and Overseas Businesses - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 28.1 billion, reflecting a modest growth of 0.8%, primarily due to patients delaying treatment in anticipation of policy changes [34]. - The domestic business is expected to stabilize, while the overseas business, particularly in the U.S., is set to grow significantly due to an increase in the number of doctors and favorable policy changes [38][40]. - The company has successfully controlled costs, with a sales and management expense ratio of approximately 22.5%, which has helped mitigate pressure on profit margins [44]. 3. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of RMB 29.9 billion and RMB 32.6 billion in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 6.4% and 9.0% [5][46]. - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to be RMB 4.2 billion and RMB 4.7 billion for the same years, with growth rates of 0.9% and 10.5% [5][46]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at HKD 3.69, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 22x for 2025 and 20x for 2026, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term value as a leader in the assisted reproductive sector [49].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time, with a reasonable valuation range of HKD 4.39 to 4.73, indicating a potential upside of approximately 35-45% from the current stock price of HKD 3.50 [6][3]. Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from the upward trend in both meat and milk prices, with expectations of significant profit recovery in the coming years. The original milk segment is projected to see profit increases of approximately HKD 14 billion and HKD 20 billion in 2026 and 2027, respectively, compared to 2024 [3][2]. - The report highlights the company's comprehensive business model, which includes breeding, feed, and large-scale dairy farming, making it a leader in the global raw milk supply chain [1][17]. Company Overview - The company, controlled by Yili Group, operates 97 large-scale farms across China's prime dairy regions, with a dairy cow inventory exceeding 600,000 heads and an expected raw milk production of around 3.7 million tons in 2024, ranking first globally [1][17]. - It is also the largest supplier of ruminant feed and alfalfa in China, with its subsidiary, Saikexing, being the largest dairy cattle breeding company in the country [1][17]. Industry Outlook - The report anticipates a turning point in the beef cycle in 2025, with domestic beef prices expected to rise until 2027 due to supply adjustments and increased demand [2][48]. - The domestic raw milk market has faced price declines for nearly four years, but the report suggests that the current high meat-to-milk price ratio may accelerate the culling of dairy cows, leading to a recovery in raw milk prices by 2025 [2][48]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of HKD 6.7 billion, HKD 22.9 billion, and HKD 33.5 billion from 2025 to 2027, with earnings per share (EPS) expected to be HKD 0.17, HKD 0.59, and HKD 0.86, respectively [3][5]. - The report indicates that the company's revenue is expected to grow from HKD 20.1 billion in 2024 to HKD 24.8 billion in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.6% [5][3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is maintained as "Buy" [8] Core Views - Tencent is expected to achieve operating revenue of 178.3 billion RMB in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 11%, and an adjusted net profit of 60.2 billion RMB, reflecting a 5% increase [2] - The company continues to show healthy growth driven by new game releases and advancements in AI technology [8] - The report highlights the strong performance in gaming, advertising, and financial technology sectors, with specific growth rates projected for each segment [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Tencent are as follows: - 2023: 609 billion RMB - 2024: 660.3 billion RMB - 2025E: 731.1 billion RMB - 2026E: 795.5 billion RMB - 2027E: 846.5 billion RMB - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 9.8% for 2023, 8.4% for 2024, 10.7% for 2025, 8.8% for 2026, and 6.4% for 2027 [4] - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 157.7 billion RMB - 2024: 222.7 billion RMB - 2025E: 250.7 billion RMB - 2026E: 281.3 billion RMB - 2027E: 309.3 billion RMB - Year-on-year growth rates for adjusted net profit are projected at 36.4% for 2023, 41.2% for 2024, 12.6% for 2025, 12.2% for 2026, and 10.0% for 2027 [4] Revenue Breakdown - The expected revenue breakdown for Q2 2025 includes: - Online gaming revenue growth of 14% year-on-year - Advertising revenue growth of 17% year-on-year - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue growth of 5% year-on-year [8] - The report emphasizes the contribution of new game titles and AI enhancements to revenue growth [8] Valuation - The target price for Tencent is set at 673 HKD, indicating an upside potential of 35.5% from the current price [8] - The SOTP (Sum of the Parts) valuation method estimates the total market value of Tencent at approximately 561.73 billion RMB [10]

[Table_Title] 同程旅行深度报告：造梦大鱼，乘势腾盈 港股研究丨公司深度丨同程旅行（0780.HK） %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当下旅游经济蓬勃发展，居民旅游消费相对韧性，具备精神属性的旅游行业成长性显著，同时 OTA 行业经营生态显著改善，竞争格局趋于良性。同程两大股东分别为腾讯及携程，前者贡献 低成本微信流量入口，后者共享旅游资源供应及销售合作，其与大股东的战略合作双赢且稳定 性高。公司通过外延收购向上纵深旅游产业链，酒管业务打造第二成长曲线，旅行社业务享出 境游恢复红利。公司盈利能力在用户营销策略优化和出境游 ROI 提升下，进入上行通道。看好 公司随着下沉市场旅游出游习惯养成，渗透率和 ARPU 持续提升。预计同程 2025-2027 年整 体营收 197、227 和 260 亿元，经调整净利润分别为 33、39 和 46 亿元，给予"买入"评级。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 33 %% %% SAC：S0490517020001 SA ...