盈利预测：（本表归母净利润为经调整后净利润口径） | [Table_Finance] | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 276,744 | 337,592 | 365,324 | 414,899 | 467,340 | | 增长率 （ % ） | 25.82% | 21.99% | 8.21% | 13.57% | 12.64% | | EBITDA（百万元） | 23,877 | 49,119 | -11,932 | 21,977 | 39,156 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 23,253 | 43,772 | -22,518 | 7,219 | 23,982 | | EPS（元/股） | 3.72 | 7.15 | -3.73 | 1.21 | 4.04 | | 市盈率（x） | 22.41 | 11.68 | - | 68.71 | 20.68 | 数据来源：公司财务报表，广发证券发展研究中心（1 港币=0.8898 人民币） [Table_Pa ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Lin Qingxuan with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 130.88, corresponding to a 2026 adjusted PE of 28x [6][11]. Core Insights - Lin Qingxuan focuses on high-end anti-wrinkle and firming products, pioneering the "oil-based skincare" concept. The brand has a clear positioning and product category mindset, with significant growth potential in its market segment [6][10]. - The company has developed its flagship product, Camellia Oil, into its fifth generation, and its "1+4" product strategy includes a diverse range of products such as lotions, toners, creams, serums, and sunscreens, which are expected to drive future growth [6][8]. - Lin Qingxuan's omnichannel sales network supports steady growth in both online and offline sales, with strong R&D capabilities expected to reinforce its market leadership in niche segments and enable product innovation [6][9]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Lin Qingxuan are as follows: - 2024: RMB 1,210 million (+50.27%) - 2025: RMB 2,218 million (+83.34%) - 2026: RMB 3,214 million (+44.91%) - 2027: RMB 4,464 million (+38.91%) [5][11]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2024: RMB 200.24 million (+126.37%) - 2025: RMB 385.40 million (+92.47%) - 2026: RMB 589.34 million (+52.92%) - 2027: RMB 821.16 million (+39.33%) [5][11]. - The adjusted net profit margin is expected to be 11.0% in 2023 and 16.6% in 2024, indicating improved operational efficiency [10][24]. Market Dynamics - The "oil-based skincare" market is currently experiencing rapid penetration growth, driven by product innovation, increased brand investment in product education, and a shift in consumer awareness towards skin barrier repair [7][21]. - Lin Qingxuan has established a strong brand identity around the Camellia flower ingredient, which has become synonymous with its product offerings, enhancing consumer recognition and loyalty [8][22]. - The company has a robust offline presence with 554 stores as of the first half of 2025, and it is actively expanding its online sales channels, leveraging live streaming and collaborations with KOLs to capture growth opportunities [9][22]. Competitive Positioning - Lin Qingxuan's ability to incubate successful single products and replicate this success across categories positions it favorably within the high-end skincare market, which is relatively concentrated [10][17]. - The company’s focus on high-quality raw materials and integrated supply chain management is expected to solidify its leadership in niche markets [23][24].

海外公司跟踪报告 | 工业 证券研究报告 | 报告日期 | 2026 年 2 月 5 日 | | --- | --- | | 公司评级 | 增持（维持） | 基础数据 | 2 月 5 日收盘价（港元） | 26.64 | | --- | --- | | 总市值（亿港元） | 248.93 | | 总股本（亿股） | 9.34 | 来源：聚源，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 相关研究 【兴证海外机器人】港股人形机器人行 业 2026 年策略：产业突破，前景可期- 2025.12.16 【兴证海外机器人】德昌电机控股首次 覆盖报告：液冷水泵、人形机器人零部 件弹性可期-2025.09.28 分析师：余小丽 S0190518020003 AXK331 yuxiaoli@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：张忠业 S0190522070004 zhangzhongye@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：李梦旋 S0190523060003 limengxuan@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：张弘彬 S0190524080002 zhanghongbin@xyzq.com.cn 请注意: 张忠业、李梦旋、张弘彬并非香 港证券 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 38 HKD [3][6]. Core Insights - The company, Leshu Shi (2698.HK), is a leading multinational hygiene products company focused on emerging markets such as Africa, Latin America, and Central Asia, specializing in baby diapers, pull-ups, sanitary napkins, and wet wipes [1][2]. - Revenue for the first four months of 2024 and 2025 was 320 million and 160 million USD, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 10.5% and 15.5%, while net profit was 95 million and 31 million USD, reflecting growth of 47.0% and 8.4% [1]. - The company is expected to see net profits of 106 million, 129 million, and 147 million USD for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.18, 0.21, and 0.24 USD [1][3]. Company Overview - Leshu Shi has established a broad sales network across over 30 countries in Africa, Latin America, and Central Asia, with 18 sales branches and over 2,800 wholesalers, distributors, supermarkets, and other retailers [2][17]. - The company has a strong local production presence in Africa with 8 factories, making it the largest manufacturer of hygiene products in the region [2][20]. Business Growth Factors - Future growth is anticipated from external factors such as demographic growth in emerging markets, ongoing consumption upgrades, and increased penetration of hygiene products [3][12]. - Internal growth factors include localized production creating a competitive moat, extensive sales channel coverage, continuous product category expansion, and replicating successful market experiences in other emerging markets [3][12]. Financial and Valuation Summary - The company’s projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 541 million, 627 million, and 711 million USD, with growth rates of 19.1%, 15.9%, and 13.4% respectively [4]. - The net profit margins are expected to remain stable, with net profit margins of 19.6%, 20.5%, and 20.7% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [4]. - The company is valued at a 23x PE ratio for 2026, corresponding to a stock price of 38 HKD [3][4]. Market Characteristics - Emerging markets, particularly Africa, are characterized by strong economic growth, a young population driving consumption upgrades, and high import demand due to lower local industrialization [46][47]. - The African market is expected to see significant growth in the hygiene products sector, with the baby diaper market projected to grow from 2.037 billion USD in 2020 to 2.590 billion USD by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 6.2% [49][53].

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月05日 百胜中国（09987.HK） 优于大市 同店收入连续 3 季度正增，2026 年门店扩张提速 2025Q4 归母净利润同增 22%。2025Q4，公司实现收入 28.23 亿美元/+8.8%； 实现经营利润 1.87 亿美元/+23.8%；归母净利润 1.40 亿美元/+21.7%； EPS 为 0.40 美元。分品牌看，2025Q4，肯德基分部收入 21.25 亿美元 /+8.75%；经营利润 2.23 亿美元/+16.1%；经营利润率为 10.5%/+0.7pct。 必胜客分部收入 5.40 亿美元/+5.9%；经营利润 2000 万美元/+42.9%； 经营利润率为 3.7%，同比+1.0pct。分渠道看，外卖收入同增 34%，增 速环比继续上行，餐厅收入占比已达到 53%。 外卖占比提升人工成本上行，餐厅利润率表现优秀。2025Q4，薪金及雇员 福利占比约 29.3%，同比+1.1pct，外卖收入占比提升致外卖骑手成本上 升影响为主；食品及原材料占比为 31.7%，同比-0.2pct；物业租金及其 他经营开支占比约 26.0%，同比-1.6pct，公司餐厅利润 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China [5] Core Insights - The company achieved revenue of $2.8 billion in Q4 2025, a year-over-year increase of 9%, exceeding expectations. For the full year 2025, revenue reached $11.8 billion, up 4% year-over-year [1] - The company plans to return $1.5 billion to shareholders in 2026, corresponding to a dividend yield of approximately 8% based on the current market capitalization [1] - The company is expected to continue expanding its store network, with over 1,900 new stores planned for 2026, increasing the proportion of franchise stores from 37% to a target of 40-50% [3] Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the operating profit was $187 million, a 25% increase year-over-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was $140 million, up 22% year-over-year [1] - For the full year 2025, the operating profit was $1.29 billion, an 11% increase year-over-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was $929 million, a 2% increase year-over-year [1] - The company expects revenues for 2026-2028 to be $12.36 billion, $13.15 billion, and $13.97 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of $1.003 billion, $1.096 billion, and $1.188 billion [4] Operational Efficiency - The profit margins for KFC and Pizza Hut improved in Q4 2025, with KFC at 14.0% and Pizza Hut at 9.9%, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 0.7 and 0.6 percentage points respectively [2] - The company has been focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with a management expense ratio of 4.9% for the full year 2025, an improvement of 0.1 percentage points year-over-year [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yum China (09987.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [6][21]. Core Views - The company has maintained positive same-store sales growth for three consecutive quarters, with a projected increase in store expansion in 2026 [4][21]. - For Q4 2025, the company reported a revenue of $2.823 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, and a net profit of $140 million, up 21.7% [9][10]. - The company is expected to continue its robust growth trajectory, driven by innovations in delivery and product offerings, with a forecasted net increase of over 1,900 stores in 2026 [3][20]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the operating profit was $187 million, reflecting a 23.8% increase year-on-year, with an EPS of $0.40 [9][10]. - The KFC division generated $2.125 billion in revenue, up 8.75%, while the Pizza Hut division saw revenue of $540 million, a 5.9% increase [9][10]. - The overall same-store sales growth was 3%, with KFC and Pizza Hut achieving 3% and 1% growth respectively [10][11]. Store Expansion - The company added 587 new stores in Q4 2025, bringing the total to 18,101 stores by the end of the year, with KFC and Pizza Hut having 12,997 and 4,168 stores respectively [11][20]. - The proportion of franchised stores is increasing, with KFC and Pizza Hut's franchise store ratios reaching 15% and 8% by the end of 2025 [11][20]. Cost and Profitability - In Q4 2025, the restaurant profit margin improved to 13.0%, a year-on-year increase of 0.7 percentage points, driven by revenue leverage [3][18]. - Labor costs accounted for approximately 29.3% of total costs, reflecting a 1.1 percentage point increase year-on-year, primarily due to rising delivery costs [3][18]. Future Outlook - The company expects to achieve a net profit of $1.019 billion in 2026, with projections for 2027 and 2028 at $1.106 billion and $1.170 billion respectively [5][21]. - The anticipated shareholder return for 2026 is approximately $1.5 billion, with expected annual returns of $900 million to over $1 billion for 2027-2028 [3][20].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Dongpeng Beverage (09980) with an "Outperform" rating for both A-shares and H-shares, setting target prices at 307 RMB and 345 HKD respectively [1] Core Insights - Dongpeng Beverage is the second-largest player in China's functional beverage industry, holding a market share of 23% by value and 26.3% by volume, with the potential to further expand its market share due to its extensive channel penetration and efficient sales tracking system [1] - The per capita consumption of functional beverages in China is 9.9 liters, significantly lower than in the US (54.9 liters), Japan (21.9 liters), and Thailand (16.5 liters), indicating substantial growth potential for the industry [1] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for functional beverages is projected at 10.9% from 2025 to 2029, compared to 5.9% for soft drinks, highlighting a favorable market environment for Dongpeng Beverage [1] Financial Projections - The report forecasts Dongpeng Beverage's net profit growth of 32%, 28%, and 22% for the years 2025 to 2027, with an overall CAGR of 25% during this period [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Rongchang Biologics (09995) with a target price of HKD 136 [1] Core Insights - The report is optimistic about the company's upcoming milestones, including the enrollment of MGIII for Taitasip and the initiation of SSIII, as well as the first overseas BLA submission for Vedisit and the data readout for 1LUCIII [1] - The inclusion of Taitasip's indications in the mainland's medical insurance is expected to drive significant sales growth, alongside the anticipated approvals for major indications like SS and IgAN [1] - Early-stage products (RC148, RC118, new ADCRC278) are progressing towards more indications, with data readouts likely to continue catalyzing the stock price [1] Financial Performance - Rongchang Biologics has issued a positive earnings forecast, expecting approximately RMB 3.25 billion in revenue for the previous year, representing a year-on-year growth of about 89% [1] - The net profit is projected to be around RMB 716 million, with a non-deductible net profit of approximately RMB 78.5 million, both showing a turnaround from losses year-on-year [1] - The performance significantly exceeded previous expectations from both the report and the market, with the timing of the profitability inflection point occurring earlier than previously anticipated [1] - Excluding contributions from external licensing and fair value gains, the report estimates that the company's core business achieved or approached breakeven in the fourth quarter, ahead of prior expectations [1] - With Taitasip and RC148 expanding internationally and more R&D costs being borne by overseas partners, there is optimism for further improvement in the company's profit margins this year [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Great Wall Motors with a target price of HKD 22.5 [1] Core Insights - Great Wall Motors reported a revenue of RMB 222.79 billion for the previous year, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.2%. However, net profit decreased by 21.7% to RMB 9.912 billion, primarily due to the costs associated with direct sales channel development and the preemptive investment in new products and branding [1] - In Q4 of the previous year, the company achieved a record revenue of RMB 69.21 billion, but net profit fell to RMB 1.277 billion, a quarter-on-quarter decline of 44%. This decline was mainly attributed to a one-time provision for year-end bonuses (RMB 4.6 billion) along with increased expenditures on direct sales and advertising, as well as the ramp-up costs of new stores [1] - Looking ahead to 2026, the report suggests that the profitability of Great Wall Motors will depend on efficiency improvements, with overseas challenges expected to reach 600,000 units, which, along with enhanced direct sales efficiency, could drive profit recovery [1]