Group 1 - In 2024, China's bauxite production is expected to be approximately 93 million tons, remaining stable compared to 2023 due to environmental regulations and mining restrictions [1] - China's alumina production is projected to reach about 85.52 million tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.9% [2] - The output of electrolytic aluminum in China is estimated to be around 44.01 million tons in 2024, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [4] Group 2 - China's recycled aluminum production is anticipated to be about 10.5 million tons in 2024, continuing its growth trend despite previous slowdowns [5][8] - The production of aluminum processing materials in China is expected to be around 64.6 million tons in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4.2%, accounting for 67.15% of the global total [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Insights - Precious metals are expected to perform well in the long term, with gold prices rising by 3.74% recently due to escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly between Israel and Iran [5]. - Industrial metal prices showed mixed results, with copper and nickel prices declining by 0.2% and 2.2% respectively, while aluminum and lead prices increased by 1.8% and 1.6% [5]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for small metals, particularly praseodymium-neodymium oxide, which saw price increases, driven by a recovery in manufacturing demand [5]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium, have seen price declines, with lithium carbonate prices dropping, indicating a need to monitor future demand growth in this sector [5]. - The report suggests a favorable investment environment for the non-ferrous metals sector, driven by anticipated monetary easing from the Federal Reserve and supportive domestic fiscal policies [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - Gold prices are projected to continue rising due to geopolitical instability and a weakening dollar [5]. 1.2 Industrial Metals - Recent price changes include copper at 78,010 CNY/ton (-0.2%), aluminum at 20,440 CNY/ton (+1.8%), and nickel at 119,920 CNY/ton (-2.2%) [28]. 1.3 Small Metals - Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide increased by 0.7% week-on-week, reflecting a 22.2% annual increase [30]. 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium prices have decreased significantly, with lithium carbonate at 5,350 CNY/ton, down 37.6% year-on-year [35]. 2. Market Data - The non-ferrous metals sector rose by 3.79%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 0.25% [36]. 3. Key Events Review - The report notes a framework agreement reached in U.S.-China trade talks, which may positively influence industrial metal prices [43].

记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 证券代码：002532 证券简称：天山铝业 公告编号：2025-036 天山铝业集团股份有限公司 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 本次担保后，本公司及控股子公司对外担保总额超过最近一期经审计净资产 限公司提供担保，属于对资产负债率超过 70%的对象提供担保。敬请投资者充分 关注担保风险。 一、担保情况概述 （一）担保情况 根据公司业务的发展和生产经营的需要，天山铝业集团股份有限公司（以下 简称"天山铝业""公司"或"本公司"）为招商银行股份有限公司石河子分行（以下 简称"招商银行石河子分行"）对本公司全资子公司新疆生产建设兵团第八师天山 铝业有限公司（以下简称"天铝有限"）享有的 2.5 亿元人民币主债权提供最高额 保证担保；为上海农村商业银行股份有限公司上海长三角一体化示范区分行（以 下简称"上海农商行长三角一体化示范区分行"）对本公司全资孙公司上海辛然实 业有限公司（以下简称"上海辛然"）享有的 1.755 亿元人民币主债权提供最高 ...

Group 1 - The overall economic operation in 2024 was stable, with a 5.8% increase in industrial added value for large-scale enterprises, and a 8.9% growth in the non-ferrous metal industry [15][16] - The non-ferrous metal industry saw a profit increase of 24.5% in the smelting and rolling sector and 47.8% in the mining sector in the first four months of 2025 [15] - The non-ferrous metal industry index rose by 16.41% as of June 13, 2025, outperforming other sectors [16] Group 2 - Gold prices are expected to rise due to multiple factors including weakened dollar credit, increased central bank purchases, and ongoing geopolitical risks [20][34] - In 2024, global central banks purchased 1,045 tons of gold, accounting for 21% of total demand, with significant purchases from emerging market countries [23] - The demand for gold in investment increased by 25% in 2024, reaching 1,180 tons, with bar investment demand growing significantly [23][30] Group 3 - The strategic metals sector, including rare earths and tungsten, is crucial for national defense, economic development, and technological advancement, with China leading in production and reserves [50][62] - The supply of rare earths is expected to tighten due to export controls and limited quota increases, while demand from new energy vehicles and robotics continues to grow [50][67] - The tungsten market is projected to remain strong due to increasing demand from photovoltaic and nuclear fusion sectors, despite tightening supply [50][67] Group 4 - The aluminum industry faces rigid supply constraints with a production cap of 45 million tons, while demand is expected to grow in the new energy sector [4][18] - The demand for aluminum in the automotive and new energy sectors is on the rise, with significant increases in production for battery foils and structural components [4][18] - The copper market is experiencing a shift in demand dynamics, with traditional demand weakening while new energy applications drive growth [5][8]

证券代码：002532 证券简称：天山铝业 公告编号：2025-036 天山铝业集团股份有限公司 关于公司对全资子公司和全资孙公司提供担保的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 本次担保后，本公司及控股子公司对外担保总额超过最近一期经审计净资产 100%（均为合并报表内单位担保）；公司本次对下属全资孙公司上海辛然实业有 限公司提供担保，属于对资产负债率超过 70%的对象提供担保。敬请投资者充分 关注担保风险。 一、担保情况概述 （一）担保情况 单位：万元 三、被担保方基本情况 （一）公司名称：新疆生产建设兵团第八师天山铝业有限公司 根据公司业务的发展和生产经营的需要，天山铝业集团股份有限公司（以下 简称"天山铝业""公司"或"本公司"）为招商银行股份有限公司石河子分行（以下 简称"招商银行石河子分行"）对本公司全资子公司新疆生产建设兵团第八师天山 铝业有限公司（以下简称"天铝有限"）享有的 2.5 亿元人民币主债权提供最高额 保证担保； ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical tensions and the decline of the US dollar index have led to a strong performance in gold prices, with COMEX gold rising 3.65% to $3,452.60 per ounce this week [23][25] - The market is increasingly pricing in the possibility of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with expectations of two cuts this year, the first likely in September [3][43] - The uncertainty in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran and Israel, is contributing to a shift towards safe-haven assets like gold and silver [5][17] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX silver increased by 0.66% to $36.37 per ounce, while SHFE gold rose 1.42% to ¥794.36 per gram [23][25] - SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 201,954.41 troy ounces, while SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 1,090,806.40 ounces [25] - The gold-silver ratio rose by 2.97% to 94.93 this week [25] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper fell 0.24% to $9,647.50 per ton, while aluminum rose 2.10% to $2,503.00 per ton [49] - SHFE copper decreased by 1.17% to ¥78,010.00 per ton, and aluminum increased by 1.84% to ¥20,440.00 per ton [49] - The supply of copper is expected to tighten due to maintenance plans at domestic smelters and the ongoing geopolitical situation [7][8] Copper - The supply side is affected by a downward adjustment in the annual production forecast for the Kamoa-Kakula project and ongoing maintenance at the Cobre copper mine [7][44] - Domestic copper rod enterprises' weekly operating rate rose to 73.21%, but actual purchases are subdued due to high prices [7] - SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5.08% to 101,900 tons, while LME inventory fell by 13.54% to 114,500 tons [74] Aluminum - The aluminum industry operates at over 95% capacity, with minor maintenance plans causing limited supply disruptions [9][78] - Demand for aluminum products has softened, with a decrease in operating rates for various aluminum products [9][78] - SHFE aluminum inventory decreased by 6.91% to 110,000 tons, while LME inventory fell by 2.92% to 353,200 tons [11][78] Zinc - Zinc prices are under pressure due to weak demand, with domestic zinc ore processing fees rising [79] - SHFE zinc inventory decreased by 3.29% to 45,466 tons, while LME inventory fell by 4.36% to 131,000 tons [79]

Investment Scale and Trends - The aluminum profile industry in China has experienced fluctuating investment events and amounts from 2011 to 2024, with a peak in 2023 where 6 financing events occurred, totaling 2.271 billion RMB, primarily driven by a strategic investment from Rusal in October 2023 [1] - In 2024, the investment activity slightly declined, with 5 events totaling 501 million RMB, and as of May 6, 2025, there have been 2 events amounting to 40 million RMB [1] Investment Rounds and Focus - The investment rounds in the aluminum profile industry are predominantly strategic investments, indicating a trend of resource integration and industry chain extension among mature companies rather than support for startups [3] - The focus of investments is on high-performance alloys, reflecting the industry's shift towards advanced materials [7] Regional Investment Concentration - The majority of financing events are concentrated in Jiangsu and Guangdong, with 8 and 3 events respectively, followed by Shandong, Anhui, and Zhejiang with 2 events each [5] - This concentration is attributed to the complete aluminum industry chain in these regions, which reduces transaction costs and enhances production efficiency, alongside a mature market environment and abundant financial resources [5] Investor Composition - The primary investors in the aluminum profile industry are capital organizations, accounting for 89% of the investment entities, with notable representatives including Huading Investment and Shijue Capital [12] - Only 11% of the investors are from industrial entities, such as Guangdong Hongtu and Rusal [12] Investment Funds - There are numerous private equity funds related to the aluminum industry, with 20 identified through the China Securities Investment Fund Association, indicating a robust investment landscape [11] Mergers and Acquisitions - The aluminum profile industry has seen significant horizontal acquisitions among midstream companies as a mainstream strategy for scale expansion, with several notable mergers and acquisitions recorded [15] - Recent acquisitions include China Aluminum's 100% acquisition of Qingdao Light Metal in March 2023, showcasing the trend of consolidation in the industry [15] Summary of Investment and M&A Activity - The investment activity in China's aluminum profile industry has been characterized by fluctuations, primarily concentrated in Jiangsu and Guangdong, with capital organizations leading the investments, and a trend towards horizontal mergers and acquisitions for scale expansion [16]

Core Viewpoint - Dongxing Fund announced the resignation of fund manager Kang Kai for personal reasons, with Sun Jiqing taking over the Dongxing Reform Selected Mixed Fund [2][3] Fund Manager Transition - Kang Kai resigned on June 6, 2025, and Sun Jiqing, the current head of the research department, has taken over the fund [3] - Sun Jiqing previously managed the Dongxing Reform Selected Mixed Fund from September 8, 2015, to June 1, 2024, and has not managed any equity products in the past year [3] Fund Performance - The Dongxing Reform Selected Mixed Fund was established on September 8, 2015, and has seen a net value decline of 21% since inception, a 29.08% decline over the past three years, a 0.88% decline over the past year, and a 2.07% increase over the past six months [3][4] - As of March 31, 2025, the fund's net asset value had decreased significantly from an initial subscription amount of approximately 466 million to about 1.7348 million, with C-class shares valued at only 52,300 [4] Investment Strategy - The fund focuses on industries with supply-side clearing or significant capacity constraints, selecting companies with low capital expenditure or those experiencing capacity clearing, which are expected to have high upside potential during industry reversals [5] - The current investment environment suggests that gold is a relatively stable asset, while the long-term supply constraints for copper and aluminum are unlikely to change, indicating potential investment opportunities following Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [5]

Macro Environment - The macro environment is characterized by intensified trade frictions and a continued interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve, with a focus on changes in tariff policies [3][5][12] - The U.S. Federal Reserve stopped raising interest rates in July 2023 and is expected to cut rates by 100 basis points by May 2025, maintaining a high rate level [9][10] Precious Metals - The financial attributes of precious metals are expected to continue to shine, with gold prices projected to rise due to weakened dollar reserve credit and increasing global central bank diversification of reserve assets [3][5][30] - Silver, which has lagged behind gold, is anticipated to experience strong demand for a rebound, with a focus on companies like Shandong Gold, Zhongjin Gold, and others [3][5][38] Base Metals - The base metal sector is expected to see a shift in weak expectations, with aluminum production nearing capacity limits and demand from new energy and power sectors offsetting declines in real estate demand [3][5][60] - Copper supply shortages are expected to persist, with a favorable outlook for price recovery following interest rate cuts [3][5][77] Minor Metals - The minor metals sector is witnessing a bottoming cycle with positive changes emerging, particularly in strategic minor metals like rare earths and tungsten, as well as a rebound in cobalt prices due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo [3][5][98][99] - Lithium prices are declining, and high-cost production is expected to accelerate exit from the market, while nickel supply disruptions are anticipated [3][5][60]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - environment has high uncertainty. Gold is expected to continue high - level volatile adjustments, and silver may maintain a relatively strong trend [3][5]. - LME copper has a delivery risk, and copper prices may rise in the short - term [7][10]. - Alumina supply is increasing, and prices are expected to move closer to the cash cost of high - cost production capacity and then fluctuate [12][15]. - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to when the seasonal inflection point of consumption arrives [20][21]. - Zinc prices are expected to decline as inventories continue to accumulate [23][24]. - Lead prices will mainly fluctuate in a range due to weak supply and demand [26][28]. - Nickel prices will continue to fluctuate due to the pattern of weak supply and demand [30][33]. - Stainless steel prices are under pressure from supply, and the market is expected to be weak, but the raw material end provides cost support [34][37]. - Industrial silicon supply and demand are basically balanced in June, but the industry will continue to have low or negative profits, and 7500 yuan/ton may be the resistance level for the rebound [40][41]. - Short - term polysilicon prices remain weak, and short positions in the PS2507 contract can be held [44][46]. - Lithium carbonate prices have rebounded, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and there is a strong expectation of inventory accumulation [48][49]. - Tin prices are driven by macro - sentiment in the short - term, and the annual supply - demand tightness expectation has been significantly alleviated [52][53]. 3. Summary by Directory Pre - market Observation of Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Market Review - Precious metals: London gold rose 0.43% to 3325.215 dollars/ounce, London silver rose 2.16% to 36.743 dollars/ounce. Shanghai gold rose 0.18% to 776.66 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 2.07% to 9015 yuan/kilogram [3]. - Dollar index: It fell 0.25% to 98.94 [3]. - 10 - year US Treasury yield: It slightly fell to 4.488% [3]. - RMB exchange rate: It rose 0.23% to 7.1785 [3]. Important Information - Tariff trends: The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London [3]. - US macro: The 1 - year inflation expectation in May was 3.2%, and the wholesale sales monthly rate in April was 0.1% [3]. - Fed watch: The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 99.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut in July is 14.5% [3]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Adopt the strategy of trying long positions on dips [5]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [5]. - Options: Wait and see [5] Copper Market Review - Futures: LME copper rose 1.01% to 9768.5 dollars [7]. - Spot: LME inventory decreased by 10000 tons to 12.24 million tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1843 short tons to 189720 short tons [7]. Important Information - China - US economic and trade consultations began in London [7]. - In May, CPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year; PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year [7]. - Chile's copper exports in May were 4.48 billion dollars, a 4.4% year - on - year increase [7]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Due to the delivery risk in LME, copper prices may rise in the short - term [10]. - Arbitrage: Hold the borrow strategy [10]. - Options: Wait and see [10] Alumina Market Review - Futures: The 2509 contract fell 12 yuan/ton to 2883 yuan/ton [12]. - Spot: The prices in different regions were mostly flat, with a 25 - yuan decrease in Xinjiang [12]. Relevant Information - The national alumina production capacity was 112.42 million tons, with an operating capacity of 90.65 million tons and an operating rate of 80.6% [12]. - The ex - factory price of a certain tender was nearly 100 yuan/ton lower than the previous transaction price in the central region [12]. - As of June 5, the national alumina inventory was 3.133 million tons, a decrease of 29000 tons from the previous week [13]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Alumina prices are expected to decline towards the cash cost of high - cost production capacity, and attention should be paid to raw material supply risks [16]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [16]. - Options: Wait and see [16] Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Futures: The 2507 contract rose 55 yuan/ton to 20060 yuan/ton [18]. - Spot: The prices in different regions decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [18]. Relevant Information - China - US economic and trade consultations continued [18]. - In May, CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the decline of PPI expanded to 3.3% [20]. - Tian Shan Aluminum plans to carry out a green and low - carbon energy - efficiency improvement project for 1.4 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity [20]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the seasonal inflection point of consumption [21]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [21]. - Options: Wait and see [21] Zinc Market Review - Futures: LME zinc fell 0.98% to 2654 dollars/ton, and Shanghai zinc 2507 fell 0.9% to 21925 yuan/ton [23]. - Spot: The spot price in Shanghai decreased, and the overall transaction was average [24]. Relevant Information - As of June 9, the total inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots was 81700 tons, an increase of 4300 tons from June 3 [24]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Hold short positions [24]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [24]. - Options: Wait and see [24] Lead Market Review - Futures: LME lead rose 0.53% to 1988 dollars/ton, and Shanghai lead 2507 rose 0.81% to 16865 yuan/ton [26]. - Spot: The average price of SMM1 lead rose 25 yuan/ton, and the transaction of recycled lead was poor [26]. Relevant Information - As of June 9, the total social inventory of SMM's five - region lead ingots was 53400 tons, an increase of 3500 tons from June 3 [26]. - A large - scale recycled lead smelter in the northwest postponed its resumption of production [27]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Prices will fluctuate in a range [28]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [28]. - Options: Wait and see [28] Nickel Market Review - Futures: LME nickel fell 125 dollars to 15365 dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel 2507 fell 740 yuan to 121950 yuan/ton [30]. - Spot: The premiums of Jinchuan, Russian nickel, and electrowon nickel decreased [30]. Relevant Information - An ITSS nickel - iron plant's 14 furnace resumed production after maintenance [31]. - A Swedish battery manufacturer may stop production at the end of June [31]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Prices will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to macro and nickel ore changes [35]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [35]. - Options: Consider the range double - selling strategy [35] Stainless Steel Market Review - Futures: The SS2507 contract fell 70 yuan to 12560 yuan/ton [34]. - Spot: The prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were in a certain range [34]. Important Information - Indian stainless steel enterprises called for tariff measures to deal with imports [34]. - A stainless steel project in Fujian is expected to be completed in mid - August [37]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Pay attention to the support at 12500 yuan [38]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [38] Industrial Silicon Market Review - Futures: The main contract rose 2.33% to 7475 yuan/ton [40]. - Spot: The spot price was stable, and there was a possibility of a decline [40]. Relevant Information - Shaanxi plans to adjust the time - of - use electricity price policy [40]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short positions can be arranged above 7500 yuan/ton [42]. - Arbitrage: Hold the reverse spread of Si2511 and Si2512 [42]. - Options: Wait and see [42] Polysilicon Market Review - Futures: The main contract fell 2.24% to 34105 yuan/ton [44]. - Spot: The transaction prices of different types of polysilicon were basically flat [44]. Relevant Information - Zhejiang encourages virtual power plants and user - side energy storage to participate in response [44]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Hold short positions in the PS2507 contract and gradually stop losses below 34000 yuan/ton [46]. - Arbitrage: Reverse spread of far - month contracts [46]. - Options: Sell call options to realize profits [46] Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Futures: The 2507 contract fell 100 yuan to 60700 yuan/ton [48]. - Spot: The prices of electric and industrial lithium carbonate increased by 50 yuan [48]. Important Information - In May, the sales of new - energy passenger vehicles increased significantly [48]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Sell on rebounds, and do not recommend bottom - fishing [51]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [51]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [51] Tin Market Review - Futures: The 2507 contract rose 0.38% to 263860 yuan/ton [51]. - Spot: The average price of Shanghai tin ingots decreased by 500 yuan/ton [51]. Important Information - China - US economic and trade consultations continued, focusing on tariffs, technology, and rare earths [52]. - In May, CPI and PPI decreased [52]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The decline of tin prices may be limited in the short - term [53]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [53]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [53]