Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund, Invesco Great Wall State-Owned Enterprise Value Mixed A (018294), reported a profit of 606,500 yuan for Q2 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0018 yuan. The fund's net value growth rate was 1.68%, and its total scale reached 295 million yuan by the end of Q2 2025 [3][16]. Fund Performance - As of July 18, the fund's unit net value was 1.295 yuan. The fund manager, Zou Lihua, oversees 10 funds, all of which have positive returns over the past year. The highest one-year return among these funds was 9.59% for Invesco Great Wall Cycle Select Mixed A, while the lowest was 0.86% for Invesco Great Wall Energy Infrastructure Mixed A [3]. - The fund's performance over different time frames includes a three-month net value growth rate of 7.45%, a six-month growth rate of 6.25%, and a one-year growth rate of 3.06%, ranking 51/82, 49/82, and 59/77 among comparable funds, respectively [4]. Risk and Return Metrics - The fund has a Sharpe ratio of 1.0531 since inception, indicating a favorable risk-adjusted return [9]. - The maximum drawdown since inception is 12.56%, with the largest quarterly drawdown occurring in Q3 2024 at 11.67% [12]. Investment Strategy - The average stock position of the fund since inception is 68.23%, compared to the industry average of 84.87%. The fund reached its highest stock position of 86.46% at the end of H1 2025 and its lowest of 59.42% at the end of H1 2024 [15]. - The fund has a high concentration of holdings, with the top ten stocks including Zijin Mining, China Mobile, Shenhuo Co., Tencent Holdings, China National Offshore Oil, Chuan Yi Co., Sinopharm, Zhuhai Mining, Yun Aluminum, and CRRC Corporation [19]. Market Outlook - The fund management anticipates that despite potential short-term economic pressures, the relatively loose policy environment may prevent the market from overly pricing in short-term weaknesses. The medium-term outlook suggests a stabilization of the domestic economy, with the negative impact of real estate on the economy potentially nearing its end, leading to a mild recovery in the fundamentals over the next six months [3].

| 日期 | 当日涨跌幅（%） | 换手率（%） | 主力资金净流入（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025.07.18 | 4.98 | 0.61 | -303.05 | | 2025.07.17 | 4.99 | 0.08 | -9.21 | | 2025.07.16 | 4.99 | 0.37 | 2363.14 | | 2025.07.15 | -2.43 | 1.66 | -4769.28 | | 2025.07.14 | 5.12 | 1.32 | -4323.51 | | 2025.07.11 | 5.11 | 0.08 | 611.39 | | 2025.07.10 | 5.08 | 0.08 | 566.05 | | 2025.07.09 | 5.04 | 0.50 | 779.01 | | 2025.07.08 | 4.98 | 1.48 | 284.00 | | 2025.04.30 | 1.26 | 7.14 | -3351.96 | 7月5日公司发布的一季报数据显示，一季度公司共实现营业总收入21.63亿元，同比增长1.33%，实现净 利润5.9 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [8] Core Views - The report highlights a significant decline in China's cobalt intermediate imports in June, with a month-on-month decrease of 61.6%, indicating a potential supply vacuum in the second half of the year [2][4] - Lithium prices are expected to rebound in the short term due to recent positive signals, but long-term resource clearing signals remain unclear [4] - Strategic metals such as rare earths and tungsten are undergoing a value reassessment, with strong demand recovery anticipated in the medium to long term [4] Summary by Sections Cobalt and Nickel - China's cobalt intermediate imports in June were 18,991 tons, down 61.6% month-on-month, leading to a potential second wave of price increases as domestic inventory is digested [2][4] - Nickel prices are expected to stabilize as macroeconomic expectations improve, with a long-term upward price trend anticipated [4] Lithium - Recent events, including regulatory changes in lithium mining, indicate stricter domestic mining controls, contributing to short-term price increases for lithium products [4] - The report suggests that while short-term momentum is strong, the long-term supply-demand balance remains uncertain [4] Strategic Metals - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of rare earths and tungsten, with a notable price increase for rare earth concentrates reported at 19,100 yuan/ton, up 1.5% month-on-month [4] - The demand for rare earths is expected to recover due to traditional applications and the acceleration of humanoid robot deployment [4] Market Performance - The report notes that the metal materials and mining sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 1.70% [14] - The report recommends focusing on companies with cost advantages and volume growth potential in the strategic metals sector [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a weekly increase of 1.82%, ranking above average among all primary industries [14] - Industrial metal prices are under pressure due to rising U.S. inflation and a strong dollar, while domestic "anti-involution" sentiment creates a mixed outlook [27][28] - Gold prices are expected to remain stable in the short term due to the strong dollar and interest rate expectations [48] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.69%, with the non-ferrous metals sector outperforming by 1.13 percentage points [14] - Among sub-sectors, small metals increased by 4.45%, energy metals by 3.31%, precious metals by 1.61%, industrial metals by 1.00%, and new metal materials by 0.19% [14] Industrial Metals - Copper: LME copper price reached $9,795/ton, up 1.36% week-on-week, while SHFE copper price was 78,410 CNY/ton, down 0.03% [32] - Aluminum: LME aluminum price was $2,638/ton, up 1.38%, and SHFE aluminum price was 20,510 CNY/ton, down 0.89% [37] - Zinc: LME zinc price was $2,824/ton, up 3.14%, while SHFE zinc price was 22,295 CNY/ton, down 0.38% [41] - Tin: LME tin price was $33,355/ton, down 0.63%, and SHFE tin price was 264,540 CNY/ton, up 0.23% [43] Precious Metals - Gold: COMEX gold closed at $3,355.50/oz, down 0.44%, while SHFE gold closed at 777.02 CNY/g, up 0.45% [47]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5][10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a "反内卷" (anti-involution) trend leading to a general increase in commodity prices, with specific catalysts such as policy expectations driving price movements in copper, aluminum, lithium, and cobalt [4][6][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Important macroeconomic information includes the U.S. June core CPI being below expectations at 2.9%, and retail sales showing a month-on-month increase of 0.6% [10]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is set to release a growth stabilization plan for key industries including steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals [10]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - Copper prices are expected to rebound due to policy expectations, with LME copper prices increasing by 0.83% and SHFE copper prices slightly decreasing by 0.03% [6][25]. - Inventory levels have risen, with LME copper stocks increasing by 12.37% [22][25]. - Downstream demand is recovering, with copper rod operating rates at 74.2%, up by 7.2 percentage points [6]. 2.2 Aluminum - Aluminum prices are also expected to rise, with alumina prices increasing by 0.16% to 3165 CNY/ton [6][36]. - SHFE aluminum prices fell by 1.01% to 20500 CNY/ton, but are projected to recover due to strong policy support [6][36]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - LME lead prices decreased by 1.38%, while SHFE lead prices fell by 1.70% [46]. - LME zinc prices increased by 1.24%, but SHFE zinc prices dropped by 0.45% [46]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - LME tin prices fell by 0.73%, and SHFE tin prices decreased by 0.65% [60]. - LME nickel prices decreased by 0.33%, while SHFE nickel prices fell by 0.78% [60]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices are on the rise, with lithium carbonate increasing by 4.55% to 66650 CNY/ton, and lithium spodumene rising by 5.49% to 711 USD/ton [75]. - Supply issues are noted, with a slight increase in production but ongoing inventory accumulation [75]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices are under pressure, with domestic cobalt prices down by 1.22% to 243000 CNY/ton [88]. - The Democratic Republic of Congo has extended its cobalt export ban by three months, which may lead to a price rebound in Q4 [88].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of the non-ferrous metal market under strong policy expectations, highlighting the recent focus on "anti-involution" and "stabilizing growth" by the government [2][3] - The report notes that copper and aluminum prices have stabilized and rebounded, driven by macroeconomic catalysts and changes in market sentiment [2][3] Summary by Sections Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper prices have stabilized and rebounded, with domestic inventory showing fluctuations; the current price is around 79,040 CNY/ton [2][14] - Aluminum prices experienced a decline followed by a rebound, with the current price at 20,770 CNY/ton; supply and demand dynamics are being closely monitored [2][21] - Gold and silver prices have increased, with gold averaging 774.23 CNY/gram and silver at 9,107 CNY/kilogram, supported by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions [3][28] Minor Metals - Tungsten prices have been adjusted upwards, with black tungsten concentrate averaging 179,500 CNY/ton; the market is cautious due to weak demand [4][59] - The rare earth market is showing signs of recovery, with prices for light rare earth oxides increasing by 4.8% to 478,000 CNY/ton [5] Market Predictions - The report predicts that copper prices will fluctuate between 95,00-96,50 USD/ton and aluminum prices between 20,300-21,000 CNY/ton in the coming week [15][23] - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Hongqiao for potential investment opportunities [17][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1]. Core Views - The aluminum prices are experiencing fluctuations during the off-season, and a growth stabilization plan is expected to be announced soon [6][11]. - Despite the off-season demand, the low inventory levels and reduced aluminum supply are expected to provide some support for aluminum prices [11]. - The long-term outlook for the aluminum industry remains positive due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases [11]. Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of July 18, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2638.0 per ton, up $36.0 from the previous week, representing a 1.4% week-on-week increase and a 9.7% year-on-year increase [24]. - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 20510.0 CNY per ton, down 185.0 CNY from the previous week, a 0.9% decrease week-on-week, but up 3.9% year-on-year [24]. - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was 20760.0 CNY per ton, unchanged from the previous week, but up 5.4% year-on-year [24]. 2. Production - In June 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 360.9 million tons, a decrease of 12.0 million tons month-on-month and a decrease of 2.8 million tons year-on-year [53]. - The alumina production in June 2025 was 725.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.4 million tons month-on-month, but an increase of 26.9 million tons year-on-year [53]. 3. Inventory - As of July 17, the domestic mainstream consumption area had an electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory of 49.20 million tons, an increase of 2.6 million tons week-on-week [7]. - The aluminum rod inventory was 15.60 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons week-on-week, mainly due to reduced production and downstream replenishment [7]. 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.71 CNY for 2025E [5]. - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 1.12 CNY for 2025E [5]. - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.62 CNY for 2025E [5]. - China Aluminum (601600.SH) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 0.91 CNY for 2025E [5]. - Yun Aluminum (000807.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.00 CNY for 2025E [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including 山金国际, 赤峰黄金, 洛阳钼业, and 中国宏桥 [7][8]. Core Views - The report is optimistic about the upward trend in metal prices, driven by policies aimed at reducing competition and supporting economic resilience. It highlights the long-term bullish outlook for gold due to expectations of interest rate cuts and ongoing concerns about global monetary credit and public debt [1][38]. - For industrial metals, the report notes that copper prices are supported by macroeconomic resilience and inventory reductions, while aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate due to ongoing inventory adjustments and macroeconomic sentiment [2][3]. - In the energy metals segment, lithium prices have surged due to supply-side disruptions, and the report anticipates continued strong performance in this area [3]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report emphasizes a sustained positive outlook for precious metals, particularly gold, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts and economic resilience. Recent U.S. retail sales data exceeded expectations, contributing to this outlook [1][38]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Prices are supported by macroeconomic resilience and a reduction in domestic inventories. As of the latest data, copper inventories have decreased to 143,300 tons, down 23,180 tons year-on-year [2]. - **Aluminum**: The report indicates that aluminum prices are expected to remain volatile, with ongoing adjustments in inventory levels and production capacity [2]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: The report notes a significant increase in lithium prices, with carbonate prices rising by 8.5% to 70,000 yuan/ton. Supply disruptions have been a key driver of this price increase [3]. - **Silicon Metal**: The report highlights a slight improvement in supply-demand dynamics for silicon metal, with increased demand from downstream industries [3]. Key Companies to Watch - The report suggests monitoring companies such as 兴业银锡, 盛达资源, and 紫金矿业 for potential investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector [1][2][3].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a strong rebound driven by multiple favorable factors, indicating significant wealth opportunities and challenges ahead [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The A-share non-ferrous metal index reached a peak of 5324 points, reflecting a 1.99% increase, successfully breaking a two-day downward trend [1] - Global copper inventory is critically low at 91,000 tons, sufficient for only three days of consumption, exacerbated by a 30% reduction in copper production due to a miners' strike in Peru [2] - The aluminum market is also experiencing high demand, with social inventory dropping by 70,000 tons in one week, and 30% of small aluminum plants being eliminated due to policy restrictions [2] Group 2: Policy Support - Central government policies are targeting price competition, with measures such as power restrictions on aluminum plants and preferential mining quotas for leading companies, effectively consolidating market positions [3] Group 3: Capital Inflow and Company Performance - Major funds are actively investing in leading companies, with significant purchases in Zijin Mining and Northern Rare Earth, indicating strong institutional interest [4] - Precious metals are performing well, with Shandong Gold seeing a five-day volume increase and silver futures reaching a three-year high, driven by a 30% price surge this year [4] Group 4: Industry Leaders and Competitive Advantages - Leading companies like Zijin Mining and Yunnan Aluminum are benefiting from high resource self-sufficiency and cost advantages, while Jiangxi Copper is leveraging processing fee mechanisms to enhance profitability [5] - The lithium sector is thriving, with Ganfeng Lithium securing long-term contracts with Tesla, reflecting robust demand in the new energy supply chain [5] Group 5: Supply and Demand Imbalance - The non-ferrous metal sector is witnessing a supply-demand imbalance, igniting interest and competition within the market [6] Group 6: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to be cautiously optimistic, focusing on companies with over 70% resource self-sufficiency and considering options like silver LOF and non-ferrous ETFs for lower risk exposure [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metal industries [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply-side reform in China is expected to break the deflationary cycle and create investment opportunities in the steel and non-ferrous metal sectors [1][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of "supply constraints" to manage the supply-demand balance and mitigate economic downturn risks [6][12] - The steel industry is facing severe overcapacity, with state-owned enterprises holding a significant market share, which facilitates the implementation of administrative measures to control production [6][28] Summary by Sections 1. Supply-Side Reform and Economic Management - The socialist market economy in China allows for effective macroeconomic control, contrasting with the cyclical issues faced in capitalist economies [12][13] - Historical experiences show that demand stimulus alone is insufficient to resolve deep-seated deflationary pressures [14][15] - The supply-side reform initiated in 2016 has proven successful in stabilizing prices and improving corporate profitability [21][22] 2. Steel Industry Analysis - The steel industry has been in a state of oversupply from 2007 to 2024, with crude steel production increasing from 490 million tons to 1.01 billion tons, while apparent consumption has not kept pace [28][29] - The production capacity utilization rates for rebar and wire rod are expected to decline from around 70% to 50% due to weak real estate demand [33][34] - The concentration of production among state-owned enterprises is high, with central state-owned enterprises accounting for approximately 63% of total production in 2024 [38][39] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three categories of investment targets: profit recovery, stable profit with valuation repair, and stable high-dividend stocks [51] - Specific companies recommended for profit recovery include Liugang Co., Taigang Stainless Steel, and Shandong Iron and Steel, with projected annualized PE ratios improving significantly under favorable conditions [51]