Group 1 - The SW Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery industry outperformed the CSI 300 index, with an overall increase of 16.36% from January to November 2025, surpassing the index by approximately 3.18 percentage points [12][13][14] - All sub-sectors within the industry recorded positive returns, with significant increases in animal health (36.27%), fishery (35.22%), agricultural product processing (21.88%), feed (12.48%), breeding (11.53%), and planting (8.49%) [13] - Approximately 83% of stocks in the industry achieved positive returns, with around 5% of stocks increasing by over 100%, and 17% recording negative returns [14][17] Group 2 - The breeding industry is experiencing a gradual reduction in the number of breeding sows, with a current stock of 40.35 million heads, which is 1.1% lower than the previous year [23][24] - The price of live pigs has shown a downward trend in 2025, with an average price of 11.65 yuan/kg as of November 24, down 26% from the beginning of the year, but is expected to gradually recover in 2026 [26] - The profitability of pig farming has turned negative, with self-breeding losses at 135.9 yuan per head and external piglet purchases at 234.63 yuan per head, but a recovery is anticipated in 2026 [31] Group 3 - The meat chicken breeding sector faced challenges in profitability during 2025, with the average price of broiler chicks fluctuating and a significant decline in profitability [33][35] - The supply of yellow feathered chickens is expected to remain relatively abundant in 2026, with a high stock of breeding chickens [45][47] - The overall feed production in China is projected to continue its recovery, with a total production of 15.85 million tons in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [50] Group 4 - The prices of feed raw materials such as corn and soybean meal have shown fluctuations, with corn prices recovering from a low of 2115.59 yuan/ton to around 2300.88 yuan/ton by late November 2025 [52][53] - The global supply of corn is expected to remain ample, with a projected production of 128.6 million tons for the 2025/26 season, indicating limited price recovery potential [55] - The overall market for pet food in China is anticipated to grow, with an increase in exports and a rising domestic market [38][40]

晨会纪要（2025/11/25） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.11.25） 基金研究 ETF 简称迎统一规范，宽基指数获得资金净流入——公募基金周报 公司研究 传统主业稳健向前，复合集流体放量已在途——英联股份（002846）公司深 度报告 行业研究 人形机器人量产路线清晰，关注主要企业量产节奏——机械设备行业 2026 年 度投资策略报告 证 四季度服装出口预计向好，关注家居相关政策催化——轻工制造&纺织服饰 行业周报 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 晨会纪要（2025/11/25） 基金研究 ETF 简称迎统一规范，宽基指数获得资金净流入——公募基金周报 宋 旸（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150517100002） 张笑晨（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150525070001） 1、本周市场回顾 上周统计区间为 2025 年 11 月 17 日至 2025 年 11 月 21 日，权益市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Guibao Pet (乖宝宠物), plans to invest 950 million yuan in a high-end pet food project in New Zealand, aiming to enhance its global supply chain and meet the growing demand for premium pet food products [1][2]. Investment and Project Details - Guibao Pet will invest a total of 950 million yuan in the New Zealand project, with an initial phase investment of 350 million yuan and a total construction period of five years [2][3]. - The project will cover approximately 48,000 square meters and will produce freeze-dried and baked pet snacks, wet food, baked goods, and health products [2]. Strategic Rationale - The project leverages New Zealand's natural resources and strict agricultural management, which aligns with the high-end pet food market's demand for natural and safe ingredients [2][3]. - The initiative aims to optimize the global supply chain, mitigate market volatility risks, and enhance the company's revenue structure and brand value [2][3]. Brand Performance and Market Position - Guibao Pet has seen significant growth in its proprietary brands, with sales during the 2025 Double Eleven shopping festival reaching nearly 1.1 billion yuan, and the brands Maifudi and Fuleijiate achieving sales of 688 million yuan and 335 million yuan, respectively [5]. - The company has maintained a strong market presence, with Maifudi ranking first in the snack category and consistently leading in overall sales on major e-commerce platforms [5][4]. Financial Performance - From 2020 to 2024, Guibao Pet's revenue increased from 2.013 billion yuan to 5.245 billion yuan, while net profit rose from 112 million yuan to 625 million yuan [5]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 4.737 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.03%, and a net profit of 513 million yuan, up 9.05% [5].

Market Performance - The US hotel sector increased by 2.8%, with Marriott and Hilton rising by 3.8% and 1.83% respectively, demonstrating resilience under pressure[6] - The overseas sportswear sector decreased by 0.2%, with Amer Sports surging by 12.2% due to strong Q3 performance, leading to a revenue increase of 30%[14] - The jewelry sector fell by 2.1%, influenced by AI bubble concerns and reduced expectations for a December rate cut, strengthening the dollar[14] Sector Analysis - The domestic sportswear sector dropped by 2.4%, with major OEMs like Shenzhou International and Crystal International declining by 6.7% and 2.6% respectively due to geopolitical tensions[14] - The retail sector saw a decline of 4.0%, with China Duty Free falling by 10.5% as investors took profits amid uncertain policy outlooks[14] - The pet sector decreased by 5.7%, with concerns over sustainability as sales expenses outpaced revenue growth[14] Valuation Insights - The expected PE for the overseas sportswear sector in 2025 is 29.0x, which is 54% of the past 5-year average[15] - The expected PE for the domestic cosmetics sector is 27.6x, representing 52% of the past 5-year average[15] - Most sectors are valued below their historical 5-year averages, indicating potential investment opportunities[15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the recovery of the restaurant chain sector and highlights the upcoming Moutai shareholders' meeting as a point of interest [10][18]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is characterized as having low expectations and low holdings, with a potential for a rebound due to rising CPI and positive micro-consumption data [10][18]. - Key companies such as Yili and H&H International are focusing on balancing growth and profitability, with Yili enhancing its dividend commitments and H&H adjusting its revenue guidance upwards [3][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of structural opportunities within the restaurant chain and liquor sectors, recommending specific companies for investment [10][18]. Summary by Sections Core Company Tracking - Yili is focusing on quality leadership and strategic expansion while improving shareholder returns, with a positive outlook on its liquid milk segment and overall profitability [3][12]. - H&H International has seen a significant revenue increase, with a 28.5% year-on-year growth in Q3 2025, and is optimizing its debt structure while expanding its online and overseas markets [3][12]. - The report notes that Q3 growth for Yihai International has slightly slowed, but overseas markets continue to perform well, with a focus on product structure optimization to improve margins [3][13]. Investment Recommendations - The report continues to recommend the recovery of the restaurant chain sector, with specific mentions of companies like Haidilao, Angel Yeast, and China Resources Beer as potential investments [10][18]. - For the liquor sector, Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu are highlighted as top picks, with a focus on valuation shifts in growth segments such as snacks and pet food [10][18]. Industry Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, indicating market capitalizations and profit forecasts, with Moutai having a market cap of 183.66 billion and a projected net profit of 74.73 billion for 2023 [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector, particularly focusing on the livestock industry and its cyclical recovery [1][4]. Core Insights - The livestock industry is experiencing a reversal of internal competition, which is expected to support long-term pig prices. As of November 21, the price of live pigs was 11.67 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.4% [1]. - The beef market is entering a new price increase phase, with the average price of beef at 66.38 CNY/kg, showing a year-on-year increase of 8% [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of leading companies in the livestock sector, suggesting that their cash flow will improve due to official capacity control measures [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Overview and Data Summary - The report provides a weekly summary of agricultural product data, highlighting trends in livestock prices and supply dynamics [12]. 2. Fundamental Tracking 2.1 Swine - The swine industry is seeing orderly progress in reversing internal competition, which is expected to stabilize profitability [13]. 2.2 White Chicken - A slight increase in supply is noted, with attention on seasonal consumption recovery [13]. 2.3 Yellow Chicken - Supply remains at a low level, with potential benefits from improved domestic demand [13]. 2.4 Eggs - The egg market faces significant mid-term supply pressure, with wholesale prices at 3.63 CNY/jin, down 28% year-on-year [13]. 2.5 Beef - A new round of beef price increases is anticipated, with a focus on the upward trend in the beef cycle for 2025 [13]. 2.6 Raw Milk - The report suggests that the de-stocking of dairy cows may accelerate in Q4, potentially leading to a price turning point for raw milk [13]. 2.7 Soybean Meal - Short-term supply is expected to be ample, while medium-term demand and supply dynamics are projected to strengthen [13]. 2.8 Corn - Domestic supply and demand balance is tightening, with prices expected to maintain a moderate upward trend [13]. 2.9 Sugar - Short-term increases in imports are noted, with attention on the rhythm of arrivals and fluctuations in crude oil prices [13]. 2.10 Rubber - Prices are expected to stabilize in the short term, with a positive outlook for the medium term [13]. 2.11 Palm Oil - Short-term performance is weak, with medium-term policy support being a focus [13]. 2.12 Cotton - Inventory pressure is neutral, with demand still needing recovery [13]. 2.13 Red Dates - Limited demand recovery is noted, with attention on weather conditions in new production areas [13]. 3. Market Trends - The report discusses market trends and price movements across various agricultural products, indicating a complex interplay of supply and demand factors [12].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment outlook for the agricultural sector, particularly highlighting the need to focus on capacity reduction in the pig farming industry due to ongoing losses and low prices [1][2]. Core Insights - The agricultural index fell by 3.4% this week, with significant individual stock movements, including a notable increase in companies like Zhongshui Fishery (61.0%) and Quanyin High-Tech (27.4%) [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing losses in pig farming due to low prices, suggesting that the industry is entering a phase of accelerated capacity reduction, which may present left-side investment opportunities [1][2]. - The pet food sector showed strong sales performance during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, indicating growth potential for leading companies in this space [1][2]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The report notes a decline in pig prices, with the average price for external three yuan pigs at 11.61 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.43% but a decrease of 2.11% compared to the previous week [1]. - Losses for self-breeding sow enterprises have increased, with losses reported at 96.61 yuan per head, a week-on-week increase of 24.66 yuan [1]. - The report anticipates continued pressure on pig supply through Q4 2025 and into H1 2026, with prices likely to remain low [1]. Pet Food - October data shows a decline in China's pet food exports, with a total export value of 772 million yuan (approximately 109 million USD), down 15.8% year-on-year [1]. - Despite short-term challenges due to trade friction, the domestic pet food market is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with a focus on leading brands [1][2]. Chicken Farming - The report highlights stable prices for white feather broiler chicks and chicken meat, with the average price for chicks at 3.35 yuan each and for chicken meat at 3.50 yuan/kg [1]. - The supply of broilers is expected to remain ample, but improvements in demand due to economic recovery could lead to a rebound in industry profitability [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The demand for pork is expected to support prices as the year-end peak season approaches, despite a decline in prices due to overproduction and accelerated culling of sows [3][12] - The suspension of imports of Japanese seafood is beneficial for the domestic aquaculture sector, as it reduces competition and supports local prices [4][18] - The pet industry is experiencing growth driven by consumer upgrades and increased domestic production, with significant market potential projected for the coming years [22] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The culling of breeding sows has accelerated, with the national average price of live pigs at 11.62 yuan/kg as of November 21, 2025, down 0.01 yuan/kg week-on-week and down 4.75% year-on-year [11][12] - The average weight of pigs slaughtered is 128.81 kg, showing a slight increase week-on-week [11] - Cold weather is expected to boost pork consumption, providing support for prices during the peak season [12] Weekly Insights - The pig farming sector is facing losses, leading to accelerated culling of sows. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [22] - The feed sector is benefiting from strong demand, with domestic production expected to improve due to recovery in livestock numbers [22] - The pet market is projected to grow significantly, with a focus on domestic brands due to rising consumer preferences and tariff barriers [22] Market Performance (November 17-21) - The agricultural sector outperformed the market by 0.45 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.90% and the agricultural index down 3.45% [24] - The fishery sector led gains, with notable increases in stocks such as Zhongshui Fishery (+61.05%) and others [24][30] Price Tracking (November 17-21) - The average price of live pigs was 11.64 yuan/kg, down 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous week, while the price of piglets increased to 19.15 yuan/kg [35] - The price of corn futures rose slightly to 2183.00 yuan/ton, while soybean meal futures decreased to 2427.00 yuan/ton [46][50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing decline in pig prices leading to increased losses in breeding, with a focus on accelerated capacity reduction. The supply pressure for fat pigs remains significant, and the seasonal price increase is not materializing, which may further accelerate capacity reduction in the industry [2][3]. - The pet food sector showed strong sales performance during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, with recommendations to focus on leading companies with growth certainty. The core brands of listed companies performed well during the promotional period, and the logic of increasing market share continues to be validated [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of the pig breeding industry, suggesting that the downward cycle is nearing its end, with a potential upward turning point expected in 2026. The report also notes that the pet economy remains a core growth area, with expectations for continued market share growth among leading companies [2][3]. Summary by Sections Agricultural Stock Market Performance - The Shenwan Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index fell by 3.4%, while the CSI 300 Index decreased by 3.8%. The top five gainers included Zhongshui Fishery (61.0%), Quanyin High-Tech (27.4%), and Guolian Aquatic Products (22.5%) [3][10]. Pig Breeding - The report indicates a decline in breeding enthusiasm due to rising costs and high utilization rates of existing facilities. The average selling price of pigs was reported at 11.61 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.43% but a decrease of 2.11% compared to the previous week. Losses for self-breeding sow enterprises reached 96.61 yuan per head, a week-on-week increase of 24.66 yuan [2][3][11]. Pet Food - October data showed a decline in both the export value and volume of pet food from China, with a total export value of 772 million yuan (approximately 109 million USD), reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 15.8%. Despite this, the domestic pet food market is viewed as a high-certainty growth area, with strong sales during the "Double Eleven" event [2][3]. Chicken Breeding - The report notes that the prices of white feather broiler chicks and chicken meat have remained stable, with the average selling price of broiler chicks at 3.35 yuan per chick. The supply of white feather chickens is expected to remain ample in 2025, with potential demand recovery in 2026 [2][3].

Group 1 - Japanese Prime Minister Kishi Nobuo expressed the desire to build constructive and stable Sino-Japanese relations, reiterating Japan's unchanged stance on the Taiwan issue [2] - Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng met with former U.S. National Security Advisor Hadley, emphasizing the broad cooperation space and common interests between China and the U.S., with trade being a stabilizing factor in bilateral relations [3] - The China-Cambodia Free Trade Agreement Joint Committee held its second meeting, with China urging Cambodia to consider its long-term interests in trade agreements with other countries [3] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce reported that from January to October, actual foreign investment in China amounted to 621.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%, while sectors like e-commerce services and medical equipment manufacturing saw significant growth [3] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasized urban renewal as a comprehensive strategy for high-quality urban development, focusing on planning, funding, operations, and governance [3] Group 3 - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission held a meeting on the professional integration of central enterprises, with 17 entities signing contracts for projects in new materials, AI, and logistics [4] - The People's Bank of China and the Central Bank of the UAE launched a payment cooperation project, marking the start of a digital currency bridge project [4] Group 4 - The A-share market saw a significant decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 2.45% and the Shenzhen Component Index falling 3.41%, amid a sell-off in lithium mining and semiconductor stocks [5] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed down 2.38%, with technology and semiconductor sectors experiencing deep corrections [5] - The Hang Seng Index Company announced its quarterly review results, adding new stocks to various indices [5] Group 5 - The Ministry of Finance and the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced the addition of two accounting firms to the H-share enterprise audit business list, aiming to enhance regulatory cooperation [6] - CK Hutchison is preparing for a dual listing of its Watsons Group in Hong Kong and the UK, with a fundraising target of up to $2 billion [7] Group 6 - The National Energy Administration reported that in October, total electricity consumption reached 857.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, with significant growth in residential electricity consumption [9] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs approved a plan to strengthen the comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity, aiming to stabilize the livestock industry [10] Group 7 - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority received 37 applications for licenses since the implementation of the Stablecoin Regulation, but no licenses have been issued yet [11] - The Hong Kong Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau is working on the applicability of existing laws to tokenized bonds to promote the bond market [11] Group 8 - Huawei launched and open-sourced its AI container technology, Flex:ai, aimed at improving the utilization of AI computing resources [12] - OpenAI announced a partnership with Foxconn to advance AI infrastructure hardware design and manufacturing in the U.S. [12] Group 9 - The U.S. stock market saw all three major indices rise, with the Dow Jones up 1.08% and the S&P 500 up 0.98%, driven by expectations of potential interest rate cuts [16] - The Federal Reserve officials indicated a possibility of further interest rate cuts, with market expectations for a December rate cut exceeding 50% [16] Group 10 - The onshore RMB closed at 7.1103 against the USD, appreciating by 64 basis points, while the offshore RMB also saw gains [21] - The U.S. dollar index fell slightly, with most non-USD currencies appreciating against the dollar [21]