Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 19 日星期一 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周五夜盘瓶片主力价格上涨 2 元至 5978 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 6050 元/吨 （-10），华南瓶片价格 6020 元/吨（-90）。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 1233 手至 6.02 万手，空头持仓减少 2854 手至 6.13 万手。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | | 【重要资讯】 1、供应和成本利润方面，本周国内聚酯瓶片产量为 32.53 万吨，环比-0.94 万吨。 国内聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 70.2%，环比-2.03%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5588 元， 环比-3.7 元/吨；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-98 元/吨，环比+67 元/吨。 2、2025 年 11 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 53.3 ...

1月16日，国内期市农副产品板块跌多涨少。其中，红枣期货主力合约开盘报9000.00元/吨，今日盘中 低位震荡运行；截至发稿，红枣主力最高触及9030.00元，下方探低8870.00元，跌幅达2.26%附近。 目前来看，红枣行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于红枣后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 中泰期货分析称，当前新季红枣发往内地的运输工作已基本结束。虽身处消费旺季，但市场走货节奏相 对平缓，价格缺乏上行动力。河北销区市场交易以加工厂自有货源为主，下游客商多按需采购，整体价 格暂稳运行。预计短期内市场将以震荡整理为主，后续需密切关注销区走货节奏与采购商心态的变化。 中辉期货表示，近期现货表现平淡，随着新作上市高峰与消费旺季到来，盘面波动增加。高库存去化仍 旧偏慢对枣价反弹仍旧施压明显，供需宽松格局下建议大方向维持偏空态度。盘面上看，短期空头走势 进一步放缓，降温旺季背景下建议关注短线反弹机会。 格林大华期货指出，当下红枣基本面可供交易信息有限，市场主要关注节前备货需求的表现。从技术层 面看，盘面在跌至前低附近后获得一定支撑，但上行压力依然明显。中长期来看，后市红枣利好因素依 然不足，盘面或难 ...

Group 1 - Synthetic rubber futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 11,810.0 yuan, closing at 11,830.0 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 3.43% [1] - Green Dahuah Futures expects synthetic rubber to maintain a strong oscillating trend, supported by strong upstream butadiene prices and rumors of domestic butadiene resource exports boosting bullish sentiment [2] - Huatai Futures adopts a cautious bullish stance, noting that the supply remains stable with no changes in upstream facilities, while the recovery in downstream tire operating rates is observed, although demand remains lackluster [3] Group 2 - The supply pressure for synthetic rubber is slightly alleviated as upstream butadiene prices rebound, compressing the profits of styrene-butadiene rubber close to the breakeven point, potentially limiting the rebound in private production [3] - The technical analysis indicates that BR prices are still in an upward channel, with attention needed on resistance levels near previous highs [2] - The overall market sentiment is influenced by overseas situations affecting the energy and chemical sectors, with expectations of a strong oscillating market behavior [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - With the escalation of the situation in Iran, the short - term trend of crude oil - related products is oscillating strongly, but it is greatly affected by the news, and the market may fluctuate repeatedly [4]. - The overall export volume of fuel oil is not significantly affected by the attacks on Russian energy facilities. The pattern of sanctions on Russian oil products is expected to remain in the short term, and there is no specific plan for a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine [4]. - The current fuel oil market has interwoven long and short factors, and the overall contradiction is not prominent. Around March, when the existing raw material stocks of domestic asphalt refineries are exhausted, fuel oil is expected to fill a certain supply gap [4]. - The fuel oil shipment volume in Iran has shown a downward trend. The high - sulfur fuel oil shipment volume in January is expected to be 490,000 tons, a decrease of 620,000 tons compared to the previous statistical cycle. The supply stability of Iranian fuel oil is worrying, which may affect the global fuel oil supply - demand balance [4]. 3) Summary by Related Information Geopolitical Situation - US President Trump said that a 25% tariff will be imposed on the goods of countries doing business with Iran, and the US and France have notified their citizens to leave Iran. Trump also threatened to take "very tough action" if Iran executes anti - government protesters [3]. Market Situation - The short - term trend of crude oil - related products is oscillating strongly due to the situation in Iran, and the market is affected by news and may fluctuate repeatedly [4]. - The attack on Russian energy facilities has little impact on the overall export volume of fuel oil. The sanctions on Russian oil products are expected to remain in the short term, and there is no clear cease - fire plan between Russia and Ukraine [4]. Fuel Oil Fundamentals - The current fuel oil market has interwoven long and short factors with no prominent contradiction. Around March, fuel oil may fill the supply gap when domestic asphalt refineries exhaust their raw material stocks [4]. - Iranian fuel oil shipments are decreasing. The January high - sulfur fuel oil shipment volume is expected to be 490,000 tons, a decrease of 620,000 tons compared to the previous cycle. The supply stability of Iranian fuel oil is at risk, which may affect the global supply - demand balance [4].

市场快讯-电池产品出口退税逐步取消,抢出口预期带动碳酸锂上涨 1月9日财政部和税务总局公告、自2026年4月1日起、取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。 2026年4月1日起至2026年12月31日，将电池产品的组值税出口退税率由 9%下滑至69%;2027年1月1日起，取消自池产品增值税出口退税。此前改策动态，2024年12月1日起，光伏產片、电池片、组件出口退税率已向13%下明至9%，市场对 本轮出口退税取消有一定预期。 本次退税政策正式生放时间为4月,预计海外抢运需求将对一季度产业链接产及价格形成较好支撑,全年来看均存在拾出口预期。中长期 看,在价格传导过程中,议价能力更强的头部企业或将扩大海外市场份额,缺乏竞争力的产能将面临淘汰出清,预计近期碳酸锂价格偏强运 行。 为避免企业在国内外重复缴税、提振产品国际竞争力，中国自1985年开始实施出口退税政策。本次逐步取消出口政策旨在破除行业低价竞 争,走向反内卷,同时也是对国内相关企业成本及技术方面国际竞争力信心的体现。 > 碳酸锂 2026年1月12日 动。未经我公司同意,任何人不得对不能看进行任何龙式的发布、复制或对不批告进行有序俱意的册节和 数据采源:wind ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical industry (specifically for pure benzene) is "oscillating with a bullish bias" [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Global geopolitical disturbances are continuous, causing crude oil prices to stabilize and rebound. Last week, the pure benzene inventory at Jiangsu ports continued to accumulate, while the downstream demand-side operations improved. In the short term, the pure benzene price will fluctuate widely, with the reference range for the 03 contract being 5420 - 5580 yuan/ton. Future attention should be focused on port arrivals and the future transaction prices in the US dollar-denominated pure benzene market [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday night, the futures price of the main contract BZ2603 rose by 60 yuan to 5516 yuan/ton. The spot price in the mainstream East China region was 5335 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan month-on-month), and the spot price in Shandong was 5223 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan month-on-month). Long positions decreased by 240 lots to 19,500 lots, and short positions decreased by 377 to 25,000 lots [2] Important Information - Supply: In December, the domestic pure benzene production was 1.934 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. In November, the pure benzene import volume was 459,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.4%. In November 2025, the import volume was 459,624.998 tons, with a month-on-month decline of 7.48%, a year-on-year increase of 5.93%, and a cumulative import volume increase of 33.61% compared to the same period last year [2] - Inventory: The total commercial inventory of pure benzene at Jiangsu ports was 318,000 tons, up 18,000 tons from the previous period (a month-on-month increase of 6.00%) and 132,800 tons more than the same period last year (a year-on-year increase of 71.71%). From December 29 to January 4, the estimated arrival was about 25,000 tons, and the pick-up was about 7,000 tons [2] - Demand: The styrene operating rate was 70.7%, a month-on-month increase of 1.6%; the phenol operating rate was 78%, a month-on-month increase of 3%; the caprolactam operating rate was 74.1%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%; the aniline operating rate was 62.8%, a month-on-month increase of 1.6%; the adipic acid operating rate was 63.6%, a month-on-month increase of 4%. Caprolactam factories started self-disciplinary production cuts, and there may be a decrease in monthly pure benzene demand from December to January. The second line of Guangxi Hengyi's caprolactam plant was put into operation [2] - International Oil Prices: The market believes that the instability of the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Iran situations has increased, raising potential supply risks and causing international oil prices to rise. The NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract rose 1.36 dollars/barrel to 59.12 dollars/barrel (a month-on-month increase of 2.35%); the ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract rose 1.35 dollars/barrel to 63.34 dollars/barrel (a month-on-month increase of 2.18%); the Chinese INE crude oil futures 2602 contract rose 7.8 to 425.8 yuan/barrel and 11.9 to 437.7 yuan/barrel at night [2] - Military Movements: According to the US "The War Zone" website on January 5, a large number of US military aircraft suddenly flew to Europe recently, triggering speculation about potential special operations in the region [2] Market Logic - Global geopolitical disturbances are continuous, causing crude oil prices to stabilize and rebound. Last week, the pure benzene inventory at Jiangsu ports continued to accumulate, while the downstream demand-side operations improved. In the short term, the pure benzene price will fluctuate widely, with the reference range for the 03 contract being 5420 - 5580 yuan/ton. Future attention should be focused on port arrivals and the future transaction prices in the US dollar-denominated pure benzene market [2] Trading Strategy - Short-term long positions on dips [2]

Core Insights - The global commodity market in 2025 is characterized by extreme polarization, with stark contrasts between "ice" and "fire" sectors, driven by macroeconomic changes, industry cycles, and supply-demand structural shifts [1][8][9] Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The black and energy chemical sectors are expected to remain weak due to weak demand, oversupply, and the transformation pains of traditional industries [2][3] - The overall price of the black industry chain is under significant pressure, with reduced demand from real estate and infrastructure leading to a decline in steel consumption and upstream raw material demand [2] - Energy chemical products face a weak demand environment, with real estate dragging down the demand for various products like PVC and glass, while supply expansion and import pressures exacerbate the oversupply situation [2][3] Group 2: Agricultural Products - Agricultural product prices are also declining, with hog prices hovering at historical lows and sugar prices hitting a five-year low, while corn and soybean prices are expected to recover only in the fourth quarter [3] - The prolonged "bottoming period" in the hog industry is attributed to slow capacity reduction and high frozen meat inventories, while sugar faces a supply surplus and weak consumption growth [3] Group 3: Precious and Base Metals - In contrast to the "ice" sectors, precious metals, base metals, and new energy metals are experiencing a structural bull market, with gold futures rising approximately 55% and silver over 140% in 2025 [5][6] - The surge in metal prices is driven by macroeconomic changes, explosive industrial demand, structural supply shortages, and a reallocation of global funds into these assets [5][6] - The copper market is particularly strong, supported by robust industrial demand and supply chain vulnerabilities, with predictions of a continued supply gap [6][14] Group 4: Future Outlook for 2026 - The futures market is expected to maintain a trend of structural differentiation and active trading in 2026, with continued growth in transaction volume and total funds driven by supportive policies and liquidity from the Fed's rate cuts [12][13] - Key sectors expected to shine include precious metals, base metals, and new energy sectors, with copper anticipated to lead due to persistent supply shortages and clear demand growth from energy transition and AI infrastructure [14]

Group 1 - Indonesia may increase palm oil export tax due to funding constraints to support its biodiesel program [1] - Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to rise to its highest level in nearly seven years, reaching 2.97 million tons, a 4.7% increase from November [1] - As of January 9, palm oil spot price was reported at 8,710 CNY/ton, up 60 CNY/ton from the previous day, with a weekly increase of 43.33 CNY/ton [1] Group 2 - The domestic spot market for palm oil is experiencing weak basis transactions and general terminal demand [3] - There is a fundamental pressure from high inventory and weak exports, while international crude oil remains strong, leading to a mixed outlook for palm oil prices [3]

Core Viewpoint - After the New Year, the mainstream region's soda ash spot prices have gradually stabilized, with an increase in export volume in November 2025, but domestic demand remains weak, keeping prices low [1] Group 1: Supply and Production - In 2025, the national soda ash production reached 37.857 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, with December production rising to 3.18 million tons [2] - The operating rate of domestic ammonia-soda plants was 79.2% as of January 2, 2026, a decrease of 4.1 percentage points month-on-month and 7.3 percentage points year-on-year; the operating rate of the soda-lime process was 72.7%, down 1.1 percentage points month-on-month and 8.5 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Two new production units are planned to be commissioned in the first quarter of 2026, adding a total capacity of 3.7 million tons per year, bringing the total domestic soda ash capacity to 44.6 million tons per year [2] - Domestic soda ash companies have been depleting inventory for two consecutive weeks, with inventory dropping to 1.4083 million tons as of January 2, a decrease of 30,200 tons week-on-week and 40,000 tons year-on-year, although the absolute inventory level remains high [2] Group 2: Export and Demand - In November 2025, soda ash exports totaled 189,400 tons, a decrease of 25,100 tons month-on-month; the total export volume from January to November 2025 was 1.9612 million tons, an increase of 922,500 tons year-on-year [2] - The increase in export volume is primarily due to domestic soda ash prices being at a low point, leading to increased export orders; however, future export growth remains uncertain with rising spot prices [2] - As of January 2, 2026, the daily melting volume of float glass nationwide was 153,300 tons, a decrease of 0.9% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year; the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass in December 2025 was 73,500 tons, an increase of 4.2% month-on-month and 2.2% year-on-year [3] - The demand structure for heavy soda indicates that float glass accounts for 35%-40% and photovoltaic glass for 10%-15%; float glass production decreased by 6.5% year-on-year, while photovoltaic glass production fell by 9.3% year-on-year [3] - Light soda demand has increased due to the recovery in the lithium carbonate industry, while the demand for alumina and detergents remains stable; overall, the short-term supply-demand balance for soda ash is unlikely to change significantly [3]

Core Insights - The Chinese futures market showed significant growth in December, with a trading volume of 9.51 billion contracts and a turnover of 90.81 trillion yuan, marking year-on-year increases of 45.17% and 58.55% respectively [1] - By the end of 2025, the cumulative trading volume is projected to reach 90.74 billion contracts and a turnover of 766.25 trillion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 17.4% and 23.74% [1] Trading Volume and Turnover by Exchange - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) is expected to have a trading volume of approximately 23.35 billion contracts and a turnover of about 259 trillion yuan by 2025, with year-on-year growth of 3.31% and 27.86% [1] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) is projected to achieve a trading volume of around 31.38 billion contracts and a turnover of approximately 88.96 trillion yuan, with year-on-year increases of 20.26% and 4.47% [1] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) is anticipated to have a trading volume of about 26.07 billion contracts and a turnover of around 102.77 trillion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 14.94% and 4.49% [1] - The China Financial Futures Exchange (CFFEX) is expected to reach a trading volume of approximately 3.04 billion contracts and a turnover of about 255.19 trillion yuan, with year-on-year increases of 19.94% and 33.66% [1] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFE) is projected to have a trading volume of around 5.34 billion contracts and a turnover of approximately 31.60 trillion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 171.62% and 190.27% [1] Leading Products by Trading Volume and Turnover - In December, the top three products by turnover at SHFE were silver futures, gold futures, and copper futures [2] - The leading products by turnover at ZCE included PTA futures, caustic soda futures, and glass futures [2] - The DCE's top products by turnover were coking coal futures, palm oil futures, and soybean meal futures [2] - GFE's leading products by turnover included lithium carbonate futures, polysilicon futures, and platinum futures [2] - CFFEX's top products by turnover were CSI 1000 index futures, CSI 500 index futures, and 30-year treasury bond futures [2] Market Drivers and Trends - The growth in the futures market is attributed to increased hedging demand from industrial enterprises due to factors such as fluctuating U.S. tariffs, a loose global monetary policy environment, rising geopolitical risks, and domestic economic adjustments [3] - The influx of long-term capital into the capital market, particularly from insurance funds, has also contributed to the increased hedging demand [3] - The recovery of operational conditions in the real economy, especially in new sectors like renewable energy and AI, has boosted optimism regarding the demand for new energy materials [3] - The introduction of 18 new futures and options products covering various sectors has enhanced the product system of the market [3] Performance of Commodity Markets - The commodity market experienced more declines than increases last year, with precious metals continuing to rise for the fourth consecutive year; gold and silver prices increased by 55.77% and 124.62% respectively [4] - The non-ferrous metals sector also performed strongly, with copper and tin prices rising by 33.18% and 29.01% respectively [4] - The energy and chemical sector, however, faced challenges, with crude oil prices declining by 10.98% [4] Future Outlook - The futures market is expected to continue its high-quality development, with anticipated growth in trading volume and turnover of 10% to 15% this year [4] - New products like coking coal options are expected to be launched, further expanding the market's service scope [4] - The demand for hedging from real enterprises is projected to increase due to ongoing global commodity price volatility and geopolitical risks [4]